14TH APRIL 2024

ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT

BACKGROUND

On 1 April 2024, an airstrike by Israel destroyed Iran’s consulate building in Damascus,

Syria, resulting in the deaths of seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials,
including top commanders. Iran vowed retaliation for this attack.
Duration: The unprecedented wave of strikes launched from Iran towards Israel lasted
approximately five hours.
Reason: Iran claimed that these attacks were in retaliation for the Israeli strike on their
consulate in Damascus.
Weapons Used: (Be Advised: Multiple conflicting reports)
• Drones: Iran launched more than 185 explosive drones.
• Cruise Missiles: They also fired around 36 cruise missiles.
• Surface to Surface Missiles: They also fired around 110 SSM. Most of them were
intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling defence system, and Arrow 2,
Arrow 3 outside Israel’s borders along with fighter jets of Israel, US, UK and help
from Jordan.
TARGETS:
Nevatim Air Base: Located in the Negev desert, this is a primary airbase housing Israel's
F-35 fighter jets. It was a key target due to its strategic importance in Israel's air defense
and it is believed the base was instrumental in launching the attack on Iranian Consulate.
Mount Meron Air Traffic Control Base: Situated in northern Israel, this base suffered
some damage due to missile fire. The base's functionality remained intact despite the
attack.
Israeli Military Bases in General: Various military installations across Israel were
targeted in an effort to compromise the country’s defensive and offensive capabilities.
The effectiveness of the attacks was largely mitigated by Israel's advanced missile
defense systems.
Civilian Areas: There were also reports of projectiles reaching civilian areas, causing
minor injuries and damage. The defense systems managed to intercept the majority of
these attacks, minimizing potential casualties and damage.
Civilian Casualty: A 7-year-old girl from a Bedoin town near Abad was severely injured
by shrapnel from an interceptor missile. She was reported to be in serious condition and
was taken to Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. 31 people were also treated for minor injuries
or panic attacks.
Israeli Prime Minister Location and Shelter: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
and his wife, Sara, reportedly took refuge in a mansion owned by American Jewish
billionaire Simon Falic. This property is equipped with a sophisticated nuclear bunker.

SITUATION OVERVIEW
In response to an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria,
which resulted in the fatalities of a high-ranking officer of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) and eight other officials, Iran retaliated with a substantial missile
and drone assault on Israel. This counterstrike aimed at key locations, including Tel Aviv,

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 14TH APRIL 2024

Jerusalem, and the vicinity of Dimona, where Israel's nuclear facilities are situated.

The Iranian offensive predominantly comprised drones and cruise missiles. While the
physical damage to Israeli infrastructure was relatively minor, with only slight
impairments reported at one military base, the potential for significant damage was
considerable. Israel's defense systems successfully intercepted the majority of these
projectiles at or before reaching the border, although a few managed to penetrate Israeli
airspace, causing limited damage within the country.

This escalation highlights the heightened tensions in the region and underscores the
ongoing security challenges faced by both nations amid their longstanding geopolitical
strife.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA & THE UNITED KINGDOM

During the recent tensions between Israel and Iran, the United States and the United
Kingdom played instrumental roles in supporting Israel's defense against Iranian drone
and missile attacks. U.S. forces actively engaged Iranian drones over Jordan, Iraq, and
Syria as part of their steadfast commitment to Israel's security. This included
intercepting drones that threatened Israeli territory, highlighting the ongoing American
military support in the region.

Simultaneously, the Royal Air Force (RAF) conducted operations from bases in Cyprus,
primarily focusing on maintaining air security over the region and intercepting any Iranian
drones that entered their operational area. This effort was coordinated while continuing
RAF's regular missions against the Islamic State, ensuring comprehensive coverage and
support.

In addition, Jordanian forces were reported to have engaged and neutralized numerous
Iranian drones traversing through northern and central Jordan, further preventing
potential attacks on Israel.

U.S. Diplomatic and Strategic Stance:

The United States' approach to the escalating situation has been multifaceted. President
Joe Biden has openly expressed strong support for Israel, affirming his and the nation's
stance, along with a pledge to uphold the security commitments to Israel. Both the
Pentagon and the State Department have reiterated this "ironclad" support, emphasizing
the U.S. commitment to Israel's defense amidst the growing tensions.

While the U.S. maintains robust support for Israel, there is also a pronounced caution to
prevent further escalation into a broader regional conflict. U.S. diplomats have been
actively working to mediate the tensions, urging Iran to restrain its military actions and
avoiding direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. Critics of the U.S. policy
argue that the Biden administration should have been more critical of Israel's actions,
particularly the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, suggesting that it violated
international norms and potentially endangered U.S. forces in the region. These
criticisms reflect the complexity of balancing unwavering support for Israel with the
diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region and prevent a larger conflict.

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RUSSIA
Russia's Role in the Israel-Iran Tensions:
Russia's stance in the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran is complex, reflecting
its broader strategic interests in the region and its relationships with both countries. Over
recent years, especially following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has significantly
strengthened its ties with Iran, enhancing both defense and economic collaborations.
This relationship has positioned Iran as a pivotal military supplier to Russia, notably in
the realms of:
• Unmanned Aerial Systems (Drones): Iran has supplied drones to Russia, which
have been deployed in various military operations, including those targeting
civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
• Ballistic Missiles: Iran has provided Russia with precision-guided weapons,
helping alleviate shortages in the Russian arsenal. This support has cemented a
closer bond between Moscow and Tehran, particularly as both face international
sanctions and geopolitical isolation.

Moreover, Russia has openly criticized the United States for withdrawing from the Iran
nuclear deal (JCPOA) and reinstating sanctions on Iran. Moscow’s stance is often in
alignment with European powers like France and Germany, who also oppose the U.S.
approach towards Iran.

The deepening Russia-Iran alliance may influence the geopolitical landscape in Syria,
where Russia's military presence has been significant. Any shift in Russia's policy in
Syria, prompted by its growing ties with Iran, could potentially impact Israel, given the
strategic implications for regional security and stability.

Relations between Russia and Israel have shown signs of strain, with incidents such as
the events of October 7, 2023, exacerbating tensions. These dynamics underscore the
delicate and complex interactions between national interests and regional stability.

In essence, Russia’s strategic decisions and alliances in the context of the Israel-Iran
conflict are crucial and continue to have profound implications for regional dynamics
and broader global power structures. The evolving relationship between Russia and Iran
is a critical element in understanding the current and future landscape of Middle Eastern
geopolitics.

THE ARAB NATIONS

The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have elicited significant responses from
various Arab nations, each navigating the complex geopolitical landscape differently:
• Gulf States' Caution to the US: Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman,
and Kuwait have expressed concerns about the use of American military bases
within their territories for launching strikes against Iran. These Gulf states have
taken steps to limit the potential use of their territories and airspace for US-led
retaliatory actions against Iran, aiming to avoid entanglement in a broader
conflict.

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• Qatar's Diplomatic Role: Qatar has been proactive in trying to mediate the
conflict, urging Iran to show restraint. Given its unique diplomatic relations, Qatar
plays a pivotal role in facilitating dialogue and potentially easing tensions
between the conflicting parties.
• Iran's Warning to Arab Nations: Iran’s Defense Minister, Brig. Gen. Mohammad
Reza Ashtiani, has issued warnings to any nation that might assist Israel in
carrying out attacks against Iranian targets. He emphasized that such
cooperation would prompt a decisive response from Iran, signaling the high
stakes of regional involvement.
• UAE’s Restrictions: The UAE has taken a cautious approach by increasingly
restricting the use of its military facilities for launching operations against Iranian
proxies. This reflects a broader trend among Arab nations seeking to limit their
involvement in military conflicts between the US and Iran.
• Closure of Airspace: In response to the conflict, several Middle Eastern
countries, including Lebanon, temporarily closed their airspace as a
precautionary measure to ensure national security. Jordan and Iraq, which had
also closed their airspace, have since reopened it.

Summary: Arab nations are carefully managing their roles and responses to the Iran-
Israel tensions. Their strategies reflect a desire to maintain regional stability and security
while avoiding escalation into a wider conflict. Their actions underscore the delicate
balance they must strike between regional alliances and their own national security
interests.

THE UNITED NATIONS

UN Secretary-General's Condemnation: UN Secretary-General António Guterres
expressed a strong condemnation of the recent Iranian attack on Israel, calling for an
immediate cessation of hostilities and highlighting the risk of a devastating region-wide
escalation. His statements emphasize the urgent need for all parties to exercise
maximum restraint to prevent a further deterioration of the situation. Guterres also
condemned the attack on Iran's diplomatic premises in Damascus, underscoring the
importance of respecting international norms regarding the inviolability of diplomatic
and consular premises.

Remarks by the President of the UN General Assembly: Dennis Francis, President of

the UN General Assembly, echoed the Secretary-General's concerns about the
escalating tensions. He advocated for wise judgment and dialogue among nations to
navigate the crisis effectively, emphasizing the necessity of diplomatic efforts to forestall
further conflicts.
Emergency UN Security Council Meeting: In response to the crisis, an emergency
meeting of the UN Security Council was convened at the request of Israel. This meeting
underscores the international community's recognition of the gravity of the situation and
the critical need for collective action to maintain regional stability.

Iran's Position at the United Nations: The Permanent Representative of Iran to the
United Nations articulated Iran's stance, arguing that their actions were a response to
provocations. This statement highlighted Iran's perspective of acting in self-defense and

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 14TH APRIL 2024

responding to perceived aggressions, thereby justifying their actions on the international

stage.

Summary of the Situation: The ongoing diplomatic engagements at the United Nations
showcase the complexity of the Iran-Israel conflict and the global concern regarding the
potential for further escalation. The UN's involvement is pivotal, reflecting the body's role
in fostering international diplomacy to manage and, ideally, resolve high-stakes
geopolitical conflicts. The dialogue at the UN aims to balance regional concerns with
global peace and security imperatives, striving to mediate the conflict through
negotiation and peaceful resolutions.

OUTLOOK AND FUTURE SCENARIOS

Escalation Risks: The current exchanges between Israel and Iran hold the potential to
escalate into a broader regional conflict. This risk is compounded by Iran's tactical
movements and alliances, which could inadvertently draw in various state and non-state
actors from across the region, further destabilizing the Middle East.

Diplomatic Interventions: Efforts to mediate and de-escalate tensions are crucial. The
United Nations, along with other international bodies and key states, are pushing for
restraint and dialogue. Notably, interventions from global powers and regional actors will
be pivotal in curtailing the spread of the conflict and fostering negotiations. Additionally,
U.S. diplomatic movements, including those by the Secretary of State, emphasize a
strong presence and a message of deterrence to maintain regional stability and prevent
further escalation.

Potential for Negotiations: Despite the severe current hostilities, there remains a
window for diplomatic engagements, possibly through the United Nations or
backchannel efforts by influential countries. The complexity of the political relationships
in the region, including Iran's strategic goals and Israel's defensive posture, suggests a
complicated path to negotiations.

Security Measures: Israel is likely to remain on high alert and may further enhance its
defensive and offensive capabilities in response to ongoing threats. The potential for
broader conflict necessitates robust security measures and preparedness.

Role of Major Powers: The U.S., Russia, and regional players like Jordan and the Gulf
States will play crucial roles in shaping the outcomes of this conflict. Their diplomatic,
military, and economic actions will influence the strategic decisions of Israel and Iran
moving forward.

In conclusion, the trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict will heavily depend on the
effectiveness of international diplomatic efforts to broker peace or at least de-escalate
tensions. The interplay of military actions and diplomatic postures by both local and
global powers will determine the future stability of the region.

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