Bharat Petroleum Corporation

(BPCL IN)
Rating: HOLD | CMP: Rs347 | TP: Rs365

October 30, 2023 Gross marketing margins drag earnings

Q2FY24 Result Update Quick Pointers:

☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target |  Reco  GRM at US$18.5/bbl came in higher than our estimate of US$17.4/bbl.

Change in Estimates  Implied gross marketing margin at Rs 6/ltr (down 36% QoQ) against a loss of
Current Previous Rs 0.6/ltr in Q2FY23.
FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Rating HOLD HOLD
Target Price 365 353 Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) reported better than expected Q2FY24
Sales (Rs.bn) 4,258 4,262 4,638 4,239 results with an EBITDA of Rs 129.1 bn (down 18% QoQ, PLe: Rs 109.4 bn).
% Chng. (8.2) 0.5
EBITDA (Rs.bn) 358 181 349 168
Reported PAT came in at Rs 85 bn (down 19% QoQ, PLe: Rs 66.7 bn). Decline
% Chng. 2.4 7.5 in earnings was primarily due to fall in gross marketing margins. Gross debt
EPS (Rs.) 104.9 46.2 103.8 42.5
% Chng. 1.0 8.7
stands at Rs225.7 bn while cash and bank balance stands at Rs 50.3 bn and
110.5 bn, respectively. Going ahead, we build in GRMs of US$6/bbl and a
gross marketing margin of Rs 4.1/ltr for FY25/26E. The stock is currently
Key Financials - Consolidated
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
trading at 1.1x P/BV and 7x EV/EBITDA. Factoring in the upcoming elections
Sales (Rs. bn) 4,732 4,258 4,262 4,259 and inability to pass on the increase in fuel costs on the marketing side and
EBITDA (Rs. bn) 94 358 181 182 softening of GRMs in the current quarter, we maintain ‘Hold’ rating with a TP
Margin (%) 2.0 8.4 4.2 4.3
PAT (Rs. bn) 21 223 98 96
of Rs 365 based on 1x FY26 P/BV.
EPS (Rs.) 10.0 104.9 46.2 45.1
Gr. (%) (81.8) 948.4 (55.9) (2.5)  Operating performance declines QoQ: BPCL’s operating profit at Rs 129.1
DPS (Rs.) 9.8 49.8 20.1 18.6 bn fell 18% QoQ due to lower gross marketing margins. However, on a YoY
Yield (%) 2.8 14.4 5.8 5.4
RoE (%) 4.0 37.6 14.5 13.0
basis, EBITDA grew sharply by 6.4x mainly due to losses in marketing
RoCE (%) 2.7 24.4 8.8 8.3 segment. For H1FY24, EBITDA came in at Rs287.2 bn against a loss of Rs
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 28.8 bn in H1FY23. Similarly, PAT for H1FY24 stood at Rs 190.5 bn vs a net
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.0 3.5 6.7 6.5
PE (x) 34.7 3.3 7.5 7.7
loss of Rs 65.7 bn in H1FY23. Debt as on 30 th Sept stood at Rs 225.7bn
P/BV (x) 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 (excludes lease liability of Rs 88.2bn due to implementation of IND AS 116)

 Refining margins higher than anticipated: Refining throughput for Q2 stood

Key Data BPCL.BO | BPCL IN
at 9.4 mmt, down 10% QoQ due to maintenance shutdown at Bina refinery in
52-W High / Low Rs.398 / Rs.299
Sensex / Nifty 64,113 / 19,141 July. Reported GRM came in at US$18.5/bbl above PLe of US$17.4/bbl.
Market Cap Rs.753bn/ $ 9,039m Singapore GRMs have softened in Q3FY24YTD owing to demand concerns
Shares Outstanding 2,169m
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.1413.82m and are at around US$4.6/bbl (average as on 20 th Oct). Going ahead, we
anticipate BPCL’s GRM at US$10.7/6/6/bbl for FY24/25/26E.
Shareholding Pattern (%)
 Marketing margins decline sequentially: Marketing sales for Q2 were 12.2
Promoter’s 52.98
Foreign 13.02 mmt, in-line with estimates. Implied gross marketing margins came in at Rs6/ltr
Domestic Institution 22.54 (PLe: Rs4.5/ltr). Margins fell 36% QoQ due to rise in benchmark petrol, diesel
Public & Others 11.46
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - prices and inability to pass on increase in fuel costs. Going ahead, we estimate
margins of Rs 5.6/4.1/4.1ltr for FY24/25/26E factoring in upcoming elections.
Stock Performance (%)
 Concall Highlights: 1) BPCL was able to deliver a GRM of US$28.2/bbl at
1M 6M 12M
Absolute 0.1 (3.0) 14.4 Bina refinery, due to better diesel product slate and use of Russian Urals. 2)The
Relative 2.8 (7.5) 7.0 product slate for diesel at Bina/ Kochi/Mumbai is 57%/45%/45%. 3) Capex plan
over a period of 5 years stands at Rs 1,500bn which comprises of Rs 490bn-
Swarnendu Bhushan petchem/refinery, Rs 260bn- E&P at Mozambique/Brazil, Rs 250bn-marketing
swarnendubhushan@plindia.com | 91-22-66322260 infrastructure, Rs 260bn-CGD, Rs 40bn- renewable energy and Rs 100bn-
Payal Shah pipeline. 4) Capex incurred in H1FY24 stands at Rs 50bn, while FY24 guidance
payalshah@plindia.com |
stands at Rs 100bn 5) Opex cost stands at Rs1.8-2.1/bbl. 6) The company
plans to set up 1,000 new ROs in FY24 and added 300 ROs in H1FY24. 7)
Commissioned Bokaro marketing depot at a capex of Rs 2.5 bn; wants to
commission 3 new depots in North East.

October 30, 2023 1

 Bharat Petroleum Corporation

BPCL’s Quarterly and Half Yearly Income Statement

(Rs bn) Q2FY24 Q1FY24 QoQ gr. Q2FY23 YoY gr. H2FY24 H1FY24 YoY gr.
Revenue 1,029.9 1,129.8 -8.8% 1,148.1 -10.3% 2,159.6 2,358.5 -8.4%
YoY Change (%) -10.3 -6.7 50.3
Total Expenditure 900.8 971.7 -7.3% 1,127.9 -20.1% 1,872.5 2,387.4 NA
EBITDA 129.1 158.1 -18.4% 20.2 539.3% 287.2 -28.8 NA
Margins (%) 12.5 14.0 1.8 26.5 -2.3 NA
Depreciation 16.0 16.1 -0.6% 15.6 2.8% 32.1 31.7 1.2%
Interest 7.7 6.8 13.0% 8.1 -5.3% 14.5 14.3 1.5%
Other Income 7.7 4.9 56.8% 5.6 38.4% 12.6 10.0 26.4%
PBT 113.1 140.1 -19.3% -3.8 NA 253.2 -80.3 NA
Tax 28.1 34.6 -18.8% -0.7 NA 62.7 -14.6 NA
Rate (%) 24.8 24.7 19.1
PAT 85.0 105.5 -19.4% -3.0 NA 190.5 -65.7 NA
YoY Change (%) LP LP PL
Margins (%) 8.3 9.3 -0.3
Source: Company, PL

GRMs rise 46% QoQ

Refining Throughput(mmtpa) Refining Margins (US$/bbl)

12.0 30.0
10.6 10.4
27.5
9.7 9.4 9.4
10.0 8.8 25.0

8.0 20.6 20.0

18.5
16.8 15.9
6.0 15.0
12.6
4.0 10.0

2.0 5.0

- -
Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24

Source: Company, PL

Gross Marketing Margins decline QoQ

Marketing Sales(mmtpa) Gross marketing margins (Rs/ltr)

15.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.2

11.8 11.4
10.0 9.3

5.0 6.0
2.8
1.1
- (0.6)
Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24
(5.0)

(10.0) (9.1)

(15.0)

Source: Company, PL Company, PL

October 30, 2023 2

 Bharat Petroleum Corporation

GRMs estimated at US$6/bbl going ahead

Refining Margin (US$/bbl) Gross marketing margins (Rs/ltr)

25.0
20.2
20.0

15.0
10.8
10.0
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.6
4.1 4.1

-
FY23 (1.5) FY24E FY25E FY26E
(5.0)

Source: Company, PL

October 30, 2023 3

 Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

Net Revenues 4,732 4,258 4,262 4,259 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 36.4 (10.0) 0.1 (0.1)
Cost of Goods Sold 4,332 3,643 3,834 3,828 Gross Block 1,735 1,795 1,855 1,915
Gross Profit 400 615 428 430 Tangibles 1,735 1,795 1,855 1,915
Margin (%) 8.4 14.4 10.0 10.1 Intangibles - - - -
Employee Cost - - - -
Other Expenses 306 257 247 249 Acc: Dep / Amortization 567 652 725 800
Tangibles 567 652 725 800
EBITDA 94 358 181 182 Intangibles - - - -
YoY gr. (%) (50.2) 281.2 (49.4) 0.4
Margin (%) 2.0 8.4 4.2 4.3 Net fixed assets 1,168 1,143 1,130 1,115
Tangibles 1,168 1,143 1,130 1,115
Depreciation and Amortization 64 65 68 71 Intangibles - - - -

EBIT 30 292 113 111 Capital Work In Progress 162 222 267 311
Margin (%) 0.6 6.9 2.6 2.6 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments 64 64 64 64
Net Interest 37 39 33 33 Net Deferred tax assets (79) (79) (79) (79)
Other Income 30 26 32 32 Other Non-Current Assets - - - -

Profit Before Tax 6 279 112 110 Current Assets

Margin (%) 0.1 6.6 2.6 2.6 Investments - - - -
Inventories 381 320 335 335
Total Tax 7 70 28 28 Trade receivables 67 60 60 60
Effective tax rate (%) 109.7 25.2 25.2 25.2 Cash & Bank Balance 26 81 122 158
Other Current Assets - - - -
Profit after tax (1) 209 84 82 Total Assets 1,881 1,904 1,992 2,056
Minority interest (22) (14) (15) (14)
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 21 21 21 21
Adjusted PAT 21 223 98 96 Other Equity 514 631 687 743
YoY gr. (%) (81.8) 948.4 (55.9) (2.5) Total Networth 535 653 708 765
Margin (%) 0.5 5.2 2.3 2.3
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings 605 605 605 605
Reported PAT 21 223 98 96 Provisions - - - -
YoY gr. (%) (81.8) 948.4 (55.9) (2.5) Other non current liabilities - - - -
Margin (%) 0.5 5.2 2.3 2.3
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income - - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 21 223 98 96 Trade payables 633 533 557 557
Equity Shares O/s (m) 2 2 2 2 Other current liabilities 29 35 42 51
EPS (Rs) 10.0 104.9 46.2 45.1 Total Equity & Liabilities 1,881 1,904 1,992 2,056
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

October 30, 2023 4

 Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E Y/e Mar
Year FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E

PBT 6 279 112 110 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 64 65 68 71 EPS 10.0 104.9 46.2 45.1
Add. Interest - - - - CEPS 39.9 135.6 78.3 78.4
Less Financial Other Income 30 26 32 32 BVPS 251.3 306.5 332.6 359.1
Add. Other 37 14 15 14 FCF (11.4) 75.9 39.2 35.4
Op. profit before WC changes 107 359 195 195 DPS 9.8 49.8 20.1 18.6
Net Changes-WC 104 (27) 17 8 Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (7) (70) (28) (28) RoCE 2.7 24.4 8.8 8.3
Net cash from Op. activities 204 262 183 175 ROIC 1.6 16.0 6.0 5.8
Capital expenditures (228) (100) (100) (100) RoE 4.0 37.6 14.5 13.0
Interest / Dividend Income - - - - Balance Sheet
Others (12) - - - Net Debt : Equity (x) 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6
Net Cash from Invt. activities (241) (100) (100) (100) Net Working Capital (Days) (12) (8) (11) (11)
Issue of share cap. / premium - - - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes 45 - - - PER 34.7 3.3 7.5 7.7
Dividend paid (21) (106) (43) (40) P/B 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
Interest paid - - - - P/CEPS 8.7 2.6 4.4 4.4
Others 16 - - - EV/EBITDA 14.0 3.5 6.7 6.5
Net cash from Fin. activities 40 (106) (43) (40) EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Net change in cash 3 56 41 36 Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 14.4 5.8 5.4
Free Cash Flow (24) 162 83 75 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Key Operating Metrics
Y/e Mar Q3FY23 Q4FY23 Q1FY24 Q2FY24
Y/e Mar FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Revenue 1,192 1,181 1,130 1,030
Crude (US$/bbl)
YoY gr. (%) 25.3 13.3 (6.7) (10.3)
Refining Throughput (mmtpa) 10 10 10 10
Raw Material Expenses 1,082 1,002 909 838
GRM (US$/bbl) 20 11 6 6
Gross Profit 110 179 221 192
Marketing Sales (mmtpa) 12 13 13 14
Margin (%) 9.2 15.1 19.6 18.7
Gross Marketing Margin (Rs/ltr) (1) 6 4 4
EBITDA 44 112 158 129
Source: Company Data, PL Research
YoY gr. (%) (14.1) 78.9 (422.6) 539.3
Margin (%) 3.7 9.4 14.0 12.5
Depreciation / Depletion 16 16 16 16
EBIT 28 96 142 113
Margin (%) 2.3 8.1 12.6 11.0
Net Interest 10 8 7 8
Other Income 3 7 5 8
Profit before Tax 21 81 140 113
Margin (%) 1.8 6.9 12.4 11.0
Total Tax 2 16 35 28
Effective tax rate (%) 7.8 20.2 24.7 24.8
Profit after Tax 20 65 106 85
Minority interest - - - -
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT 20 65 106 85
YoY gr. (%) (30.7) 159.0 (268.5) (2,894.9)
Margin (%) 1.6 5.5 9.3 8.3
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT 20 65 106 85
YoY gr. (%) (30.7) 159.0 (268.5) (2,894.9)
Margin (%) 1.6 5.5 9.3 8.3
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 20 65 106 85
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 2 2 2 2
EPS (Rs) 9.4 31.0 50.4 40.6
Source: Company Data, PL Research

October 30, 2023 5

 Bharat Petroleum Corporation
Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
500
1 06-Oct-23 Hold 353 347

448 2 22-Aug-23 Hold 353 352

3 04-Jul-23 BUY 425 375
396
4 23-May-23 BUY 425 362
344 5 06-Apr-23 BUY 420 328
6 30-Jan-23 BUY 420 335
292
May - 21

Oct - 21

Apr - 22

Oct - 22

Apr - 23

Oct - 23
Nov - 20

7 03-Jan-23 BUY 420 334

8 09-Dec-22 BUY 420 338
9 08-Nov-22 Reduce 260 310

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. Company Name Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Aarti Industries Hold 472 489
2 Bayer Cropscience Accumulate 4,720 5,270
3 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Hold 353 347
4 Bharti Airtel Accumulate 936 926
5 Clean Science and Technology Hold 1,418 1,410
6 Deepak Nitrite Reduce 1,854 2,125
7 Dhanuka Agritech BUY 950 854
8 Fine Organic Industries Hold 4,710 4,921
9 GAIL (India) BUY 136 125
10 Godrej Agrovet Hold 420 515
11 Gujarat Fluorochemicals Accumulate 3,230 2,846
12 Gujarat Gas Accumulate 480 425
13 Gujarat State Petronet BUY 327 290
14 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Hold 263 258
15 Indian Oil Corporation Hold 97 90
16 Indraprastha Gas Hold 539 460
17 Insecticides India Accumulate 550 514
18 Jubilant Ingrevia Hold 462 484
19 Laxmi Organic Industries Reduce 220 254
20 Mahanagar Gas Hold 1,056 1,114
21 Manglore Refinery & Petrochemicals Hold 94 96
22 Navin Fluorine International Accumulate 4,128 3,719
23 NOCIL Hold 228 226
24 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation BUY 202 181
25 Oil India BUY 341 296
26 P.I. Industries BUY 4,850 3,421
27 Petronet LNG BUY 225 230
28 Rallis India Reduce 190 217
29 Reliance Industries BUY 2,618 2,266

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

October 30, 2023 6

 Bharat Petroleum Corporation

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October 30, 2023

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Date: 2023.10.30 22:11:26 +05'30'