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GLOBAL
EDITION
STATISTICS FOR
BUSINESS AND
ECONOMICS
Tenth Global Edition
Paul Newbold
William L. Carlson
Betty M. Thorne
Statistics for Business
and Economics
TENTH GLOBAL EDITION
Paul Newbold
University of Nottingham
William L. Carlson
St. Olaf College
Betty M. Thorne
Stetson University
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I dedicate this book to Sgt. Lawrence Martin Carlson, who
gave his life in service to his country on November 19,
2006, and to his mother, Charlotte Carlson, to his sister and
brother, Andrea and Douglas, to his children, Savannah,
and Ezra, and to his nieces, Helana, Anna, Eva Rose, and
Emily.
William L. Carlson
I dedicate this book to my husband, Jim, and to our family,

Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina,
Jim, Wendy, Marius, Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia.
Betty M. Thorne

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Dr. Bill Carlson is professor emeritus of economics at St. Olaf College, where he taught
for 31 years, serving several times as department chair and in various administrative func-
tions, including director of academic computing. He has also held leave assignments with
the U.S. government and the University of Minnesota in addition to lecturing at many dif-
ferent universities. He was elected an honorary member of Phi Beta Kappa. In addition, he
spent 10 years in private industry and contract research prior to beginning his career at St.
Olaf. His education includes engineering degrees from Michigan Technological University
(BS) and from the Illinois Institute of Technology (MS) and a PhD in quantitative man-
agement from the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan. Numerous
research projects related to management, highway safety, and statistical education have
produced more than 50 publications. He received the Metropolitan Insurance Award of
Merit for Safety Research. He has previously published two statistics textbooks. An im-
portant goal of this book is to help students understand the forest and not be lost in the
trees. Hiking the Lake Superior trail in Northern Minnesota helps in developing this goal.
Professor Carlson led a number of study-abroad programs, ranging from 1 to 5 months, for
study in various countries around the world. He was the executive director of the Cannon
Valley Elder Collegium and a regular volunteer for a number of community activities. He
is a member of both the Methodist and Lutheran disaster-relief teams and a regular partic-
ipant in the local Habitat for Humanity building team. He enjoys his grandchildren, wood-
working, travel, reading, and being on assignment on the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Dr. Betty M. Thorne, author, researcher, and award-winning teacher, is a professor of sta-
tistics in the School of Business Administration at Stetson University in DeLand, Florida.
Winner of Stetson University’s McEniry Award for Excellence in Teaching, the highest
honor given to a Stetson University faculty member, Dr. Thorne is also the recipient of the
Outstanding Teacher of the Year Award and Professor of the Year Award in the School
of Business Administration at Stetson. Dr. Thorne teaches in Stetson University’s under-
graduate business program in DeLand, Florida, and also in Stetson’s summer program in
Innsbruck, Austria; Stetson University’s College of Law; Stetson University’s Executive
MBA program; and Stetson University’s Executive Passport program. Dr. Thorne has re-
ceived various teaching awards in the JD/MBA program at Stetson’s College of Law” in
Gulfport, Florida. She received her BS degree from Geneva College and MA and PhD
degrees from Indiana University. She has co-authored statistics textbooks which have
been translated into several languages and adopted by universities, nationally and in-
ternationally. She serves on key school and university committees. Dr. Thorne, whose
research has been published in various refereed journals, is a member of the Ameri-
can Statistical Association, the Decision Science Institute, Beta Alpha Psi, Beta Gamma
Sigma, and the Academy of International Business. She and her husband, Jim, have four
children. They travel extensively, attend theological conferences and seminars, participate
in international organizations dedicated to helping disadvantaged children, and do mis-
sionary work in Romania.
4

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5

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BRIEF CONTENTS
Preface 13
Data File Index 23
CHAPTER 1 Describing Data: Graphical 25
CHAPTER 2 Describing Data: Numerical 63
CHAPTER 3 Probability 97
CHAPTER 4 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions 150
CHAPTER 5 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions 201
CHAPTER 6 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 248
CHAPTER 7 Estimation: Single Population 288
CHAPTER 8 Estimation: Additional Topics 332
CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Testing: Single Population 350
CHAPTER 10 Hypothesis Testing: Additional Topics 389
CHAPTER 11 Simple Regression 421
CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression 477
CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 555
CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Categorical Data 606
CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 649
CHAPTER 16 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting 688
CHAPTER 17 Additional Topics in Sampling 720

Appendix Tables 742

Index 787
7

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CONTENTS
Preface 13 z-Score 81
Data File Index 23 2.3 Weighted Mean and Measures of
Grouped Data 84
CHAPTER 1 Describing Data: Graphical 25 2.4 Measures of Relationships Between
Variables 88
1.1
Decision Making in an Uncertain Case Study: Mortgage Portfolio 95
Environment 26
Random and Systematic Sampling 26
Sampling and Nonsampling Errors 28 CHAPTER 3 Probability 97
1.2 Classification of Variables 29 3.1 Random Experiment, Outcomes, and
Categorical and Numerical Variables 29 Events 98
Measurement Levels 30 3.2 Probability and Its Postulates 105
1.3
Graphs to Describe Categorical Classical Probability 105
Variables 32 Permutations and Combinations 106
Tables and Charts 32 Relative Frequency 110
Cross Tables 33 Subjective Probability 111
Pie Charts 35 3.3 Probability Rules 115
Pareto Diagrams 36 Conditional Probability 117
1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data 39 Statistical Independence 120
1.5
Graphs to Describe Numerical 3.4 Bivariate Probabilities 126
Variables 44 Odds 130
Frequency Distributions 44 Overinvolvement Ratios 130
Histograms and Ogives 48 3.5 Bayes’ Theorem 136
Shape of a Distribution 48 Subjective Probabilities in Management
Stem-and-Leaf Displays 50 Decision Making 142
Scatter Plots 51
1.6 Data Presentation Errors 55 CHAPTER 4
Discrete Random Variables and
Misleading Histograms 55
Probability Distributions 150
Misleading Time-Series Plots 57
4.1 Random Variables 151
CHAPTER 2 Describing Data: Numerical 63 4.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete
Random Variables 152
2.1 Measures of Central Tendency and
Location 63 4.3 Properties of Discrete Random
Mean, Median, and Mode 64 Variables 156
Shape of a Distribution 66 Expected Value of a Discrete Random
Geometric Mean 67 Variable 156
Percentiles and Quartiles 68 Variance of a Discrete Random Variable 157
Mean and Variance of Linear Functions of
2.2 Measures of Variability 72
a Random Variable 159
Range and Interquartile Range 73
Box-and-Whisker Plots 73 4.4 Binomial Distribution 163
Variance and Standard Deviation 75 Developing the Binomial Distribution 164
Coefficient of Variation 79 4.5 Poisson Distribution 171
Chebyshev’s Theorem and the Empirical Poisson Approximation to the Binomial
Rule 79 Distribution 175
9

Comparison of the Poisson and Binomial 7.2 Confidence Interval Estimation for the
Distributions 176 Mean of a Normal Distribution:
4.6 Hypergeometric Distribution 177 Population Variance Known 295
Intervals Based on the Normal
4.7 Jointly Distributed Discrete Random
Distribution 296
Variables 180
Reducing Margin of Error 299
Conditional Mean and Variance 184
Computer Applications 184 7.3 Confidence Interval Estimation for the
Linear Functions of Random Variables 184 Mean of a Normal Distribution:
Covariance 185 Population Variance Unknown 301
Correlation 186 Student’s t Distribution 301
Portfolio Analysis 190 Intervals Based on the Student’s t
Distribution 303
CHAPTER 5 Continuous Random Variables and 7.4 Confidence Interval Estimation
for Population Proportion
Probability Distributions 201
(Large Samples) 307
5.1 Continuous Random Variables 202 7.5 Confidence Interval Estimation for the
The Uniform Distribution 205 Variance of a Normal Distribution 310
5.2
Expectations for Continuous Random 7.6 Confidence Interval Estimation: Finite
Variables 207 Populations 313
5.3 The Normal Distribution 210 Population Mean and Population
Normal Probability Plots 219 Total 313
5.4
Normal Distribution Approximation for Population Proportion 316
Binomial Distribution 223 7.7 Sample-Size Determination: Large
Proportion Random Variable 227 Populations 319
5.5 The Exponential Distribution 229 Mean of a Normally Distributed
Population, Known Population
5.6
Jointly Distributed Continuous Variance 319
Random Variables 232 Population Proportion 321
Linear Combinations of Random
Variables 236 7.8 Sample-Size Determination: Finite
Financial Investment Portfolios 236 Populations 323
Cautions Concerning Finance Models 240 Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling:
Estimation of the Population Mean
or Total 324
CHAPTER 6
Sampling and Sampling Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling:
Distributions 248 Estimation of Population Proportion 325
6.1 Sampling from a Population 249
Development of a Sampling Distribution 250 CHAPTER 8 Estimation: Additional Topics 332
6.2 Sampling Distributions of Sample 8.1 Confidence Interval Estimation of
Means 253 the Difference Between Two Normal
Central Limit Theorem 258 Population Means: Dependent
Monte Carlo Simulations: Central Limit Samples 333
Theorem 258
8.2 Confidence Interval Estimation of
Acceptance Intervals 264
the Difference Between Two Normal
6.3 Sampling Distributions of Sample Population Means: Independent
Proportions 269 Samples 337
6.4 Sampling Distributions of Sample Two Means, Independent Samples, and
Variances 274 Known Population Variances 337
Two Means, Independent Samples, and
CHAPTER 7 Estimation: Single Population 288 Unknown Population Variances Assumed
to Be Equal 339
7.1 Properties of Point Estimators 289 Two Means, Independent Samples, and
Unbiased 290 Unknown Population Variances Not
Most Efficient 291 Assumed to Be Equal 341
10 Contents

8.3 Confidence Interval Estimation CHAPTER 11 Simple Regression 421
of the Difference Between Two
Population Proportions (Large 11.1 Overview of Linear Models 422
Samples) 344 11.2 Linear Regression Model 425
11.3 Least Squares Coefficient Estimators 431
CHAPTER 9
Hypothesis Testing: Single Computer Computation of Regression
Population 350 Coefficients 433
9.1 Concepts of Hypothesis Testing 351 11.4 The Explanatory Power of a Linear
Regression Equation 435
9.2 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Coefficient of Determination, R2 437
Distribution: Population Variance
Known 356 11.5
Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Tests
p-Value 358 and Confidence Intervals 442
Two-Sided Alternative Hypothesis 364 Hypothesis Test for Population Slope
Coefficient Using the F Distribution 447
9.3 Tests of the Mean of a Normal
Distribution: Population Variance 11.6 Prediction 450
Unknown 366 11.7 Correlation Analysis 456
9.4 Tests of the Population Proportion Hypothesis Test for Correlation 456
(Large Samples) 370 11.8 Beta Measure of Financial Risk 460
9.5 Assessing the Power of a Test 372 11.9 Graphical Analysis 462
Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution:
Population Variance Known 373 CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression 477
Power of Population Proportion Tests
(Large Samples) 375 12.1 The Multiple Regression Model 478
9.6 Tests of the Variance of a Normal Model Specification 478
Distribution 379 Model Objectives 480
Model Development 481
Three-Dimensional Graphing 484
CHAPTER 10
Hypothesis Testing: Additional 12.2 Estimation of Coefficients 485
Topics 389 Least Squares Procedure 486
12.3 Explanatory Power of a Multiple
10.1 Tests of the Difference Between Two
Regression Equation 492
Normal Population Means:
Dependent Samples 391 12.4 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis
Two Means, Matched Pairs 391 Tests for Individual Regression
Coefficients 497
10.2 Tests of the Difference Between Two
Confidence Intervals 499
Normal Population Means:
Tests of Hypotheses 501
Independent Samples 395
Two Means, Independent Samples, Known 12.5 Tests on Regression Coefficients 509
Population Variances 395 Tests on All Coefficients 509
Two Means, Independent Samples, Test on a Subset of Regression
Unknown Population Variances Assumed Coefficients 510
to Be Equal 397 Comparison of F and t Tests 512
Two Means, Independent Samples, 12.6 Prediction 515
Unknown Population Variances Not 12.7 Transformations for Nonlinear
Assumed to Be Equal 400 Regression Models 518
10.3 Tests of the Difference Between Quadratic Transformations 519
Two Population Proportions (Large Logarithmic Transformations 521
Samples) 403 12.8 Dummy Variables for Regression
10.4 Tests of the Equality of the Variances Models 526
Between Two Normally Distributed Differences in Slope 529
Populations 407 12.9 Multiple Regression Analysis
10.5 Some Comments on Hypothesis Application Procedure 533
Testing 410 Model Specification 533
Contents 11

Multiple Regression 535 14.7 A Nonparametric Test for
Effect of Dropping a Statistically Randomness 640
Significant Variable 536 Runs Test: Small Sample Size 640
Analysis of Residuals 538 Runs Test: Large Sample Size 642
CHAPTER 13
Additional Topics in Regression CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 649
Analysis 555
15.1 Comparison of Several Population
13.1 Model-Building Methodology 556 Means 649
Model Specification 556 15.2 One-Way Analysis of Variance 651
Coefficient Estimation 557 Multiple Comparisons Between Subgroup
Model Verification 558 Means 658
Model Interpretation and Inference 558 Population Model for One-Way Analysis of
13.2 Dummy Variables and Experimental Variance 659
Design 558 15.3 The Kruskal-Wallis Test 662
Experimental Design Models 562 15.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: One
Public Sector Applications 567 Observation per Cell, Randomized
13.3 Lagged Values of the Dependent Blocks 665
Variable as Regressors 571 15.5 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: More
13.4 Specification Bias 575 Than One Observation per Cell 674
13.5 Multicollinearity 578
13.6 Heteroscedasticity 581 CHAPTER 16
Time-Series Analysis and
13.7 Autocorrelated Errors 586 Forecasting 688
Estimation of Regressions with
16.1 Components of a Time Series 689
Autocorrelated Errors 590
Autocorrelated Errors in Models with 16.2 Moving Averages 693
Lagged Dependent Variables 594 Extraction of the Seasonal Component
Through Moving Averages 696
CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Categorical Data 606 16.3 Exponential Smoothing 701
The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing
14.1 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Specified Forecasting Model 704
Probabilities 607 Forecasting Seasonal Time Series 708
14.2 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Population 16.4 Autoregressive Models 712
Parameters Unknown 613 16.5 Autoregressive Integrated Moving
A Test for the Poisson Distribution 613 Average Models 717
A Test for the Normal Distribution 615
14.3 Contingency Tables 618 CHAPTER 17 Additional Topics in Sampling 720
14.4 Nonparametric Tests for Paired or
Matched Samples 623 17.1 Stratified Sampling 720
Sign Test for Paired or Matched Samples 623 Analysis of Results from Stratified Random
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for Paired or Sampling 722
Matched Samples 626 Allocation of Sample Effort Among
Normal Approximation to the Sign Strata 727
Test 627 Determining Sample Sizes for Stratified
Normal Approximation to the Wilcoxon Random Sampling with Specified
Signed Rank Test 628 Degree of Precision 729
Sign Test for a Single Population 17.2 Other Sampling Methods 733
Median 630 Cluster Sampling 733
14.5 Nonparametric Tests for Independent Two-Phase Sampling 736
Random Samples 632 Nonprobabilistic Sampling Methods 738
Mann-Whitney U Test 632
APPENDIX TABLES 742
Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 635
14.6 Spearman Rank Correlation 638 INDEX 787
12 Contents

PREFACE
Business statistics has continued to evolve as a discipline and has become an increas-
ingly important part of business education programs. It is crucial how business statistics
gets taught and what gets taught. Statistics for Business and Economics, tenth edition, has
been written to meet the need for an introductory text that provides a strong introduc-
tion to business statistics, develops understanding of concepts, and emphasizes problem
solving using realistic examples that use real data sets and computer based analysis.
These examples highlight business and economics examples for the following:
• MBA or undergraduate business programs that teach business statistics
• Graduate and undergraduate economics programs
• Executive MBA programs
• Graduate courses for business statistics
Designed to build a strong foundation in applied statistical procedures, Statistics for
Business and Economics enables individuals to perform solid statistical analysis in many
business and economic situations. We have emphasized an understanding of the as-
sumptions that are necessary for professional analysis. In particular we have greatly
expanded the number of applications that utilize data from applied policy and re-
search settings. These data and problem scenarios have been obtained from business
analysts, major research organizations, and selected extractions from publicly avail-
able data sources. With data analysis software like Microsoft Excel, JMP, and Minitab,
that illustrate how software can assist decision making process, it is now easy to com-
pute, from the data, the output needed for many statistical procedures. It is tempt-
ing to merely apply simple “rules” using these outputs—an approach used in many
textbooks. Our approach is to provide instruction through a combination of examples
and exercises, supported by relevant software that show how understanding of meth-
ods and their assumptions lead to useful understanding of business and economic
problems.
KEY FEATURES
The tenth edition of this book has been revised and updated to provide students with im-
proved problem contexts for learning how statistical methods can improve their analysis
and understanding of business and economics.
The objective of this revision is to provide a strong core textbook with new features
and modifications that will provide an improved learning environment for students enter-
ing a rapidly changing technical work environment. This revision recognizes the globali-
zation of statistical study and in particular the global market for this book.
1. Improvement in clarity and relevance of discussions of the core topics included in the
book.
2. Addition of large databases developed by global public research agencies, businesses,
and databases from the authors’ own works.
3. An extensive number of new end-of-section or end-of-chapter problems.
4. Addition of a number of case studies, with both large and small sample sizes. Stu-
dents are provided the opportunity to extend their statistical understanding to the
context of research and analysis conducted by professionals. These studies include
data files obtained from on-going research studies, which reduce for the student, the
13

extensive work load of data collection and refinement, thus providing an emphasis
on question formulation, analysis, and reporting of results.
5. Careful revision of text and symbolic language to ensure consistent terms and defini-
tions and to remove errors that accumulated from previous revisions and production
problems.
6. Major revision of the discussion of Time Series both in terms of describing historical
patterns and in the focus on identifying the underlying structure and introductory
forecasting methods.
7. Integration of the text material, data sets, and exercises into new online applications
including MyLab Statistics.
8. Expansion of descriptive statistics to include percentiles, z-scores, and alternative for-
mulae to compute the sample variance and sample standard deviation.
9. Addition of a significant number of new examples based on real world data.
10. Greater emphasis on the assumptions being made when conducting various statisti-
cal procedures.
11. Reorganization of sampling concepts.
12. More detailed business-oriented examples and exercises incorporated in the analysis
of statistics.
13. Improved chapter introductions that include business examples discussed in the
chapter.
14. Good range of difficulty in the section ending exercises that permit the professor to
tailor the difficulty level to his or her course.
15. Improved suitability for both introductory and advanced statistics courses for under-
graduate and graduate students.
16. Decision Theory, which is covered in other business classes such as operations man-
agement or strategic management, has been moved to an online location for access by
those who are interested (www.pearsonglobaleditions.com).
This edition devotes considerable effort to providing an understanding of statistical meth-
ods and their applications. We have avoided merely providing rules and canned computer
routines for analyzing and solving statistical problems. This edition contains a complete dis-
cussion of methods and assumptions, including computational details expressed in clear and
complete formulas. Through examples and extended chapter applications, we provide guide-
lines for interpreting results and explain how to determine if additional analysis is required.
The development of the many procedures included under statistical inference and regression
analysis are built on a strong development of probability and random variables, which are a
foundation for the applications presented in this book. The foundation also includes a clear
and complete discussion of descriptive statistics and graphical approaches. These provide im-
portant tools for exploring and describing data that represent a process being studied.
Probability and random variables are presented with a number of important applica-
tions, which are invaluable in management decision making. These include conditional
probability and Bayesian applications that clarify decisions and show counterintuitive
results in a number of decision situations. Linear combinations of random variables are
developed in detail, with a number of applications of importance, including portfolio
applications in finance.
The authors strongly believe that students learn best when they work with challeng-
ing and relevant applications that apply the concepts presented by dedicated teachers and
the textbook. Thus the textbook has always included a number of data sets obtained from
various applications in the public and private sectors. In the eighth edition we have added
a number of large data sets obtained from major research projects and other sources.
These data sets are used in chapter examples, exercises, and case studies located at the
end of analysis chapters. A number of exercises consider individual analyses that are typi-
cally part of larger research projects. With this structure, students can deal with important
detailed questions and can also work with case studies that require them to identify the
detailed questions that are logically part of a larger research project. These large data sets
can also be used by the teacher to develop additional research and case study projects that
14 Preface

are custom designed for local course environments. The opportunity to custom design
new research questions for students is a unique part of this textbook.
A number of major data sets containing Taiwan’s real estate measures, automobile
fuel consumption, health data, the World Happiness Report (which captures the effects
of COVID-19 on people’s lives and evaluates how world governments dealt with the pan-
demic), New York’s air quality index, and more are described in detail at the end of the
chapters where they are used in exercises and case studies. A complete list of the data files
and where they are used is located at the end of this preface. Data files are also shown by
chapter at the end of each chapter.
The book provides a complete and in-depth presentation of major applied topics. An
initial read of the discussion and application examples enables a student to begin work-
ing on simple exercises, followed by challenging exercises that provide the opportunity
to learn by doing relevant analysis applications. Chapters also include summary sec-
tions, which clearly present the key components of application tools. Many analysts and
teachers have used this book as a reference for reviewing specific applications. Once you
have used this book to help learn statistical applications, you will also find it to be a useful
resource as you use statistical analysis procedures in your future career.
A number of special applications of major procedures are included in various sec-
tions. Clearly there are more than can be used in a single course. But careful selection of
topics from the various chapters enables the teacher to design a course that provides for
the specific needs of students in the local academic program. Special examples that can
be left out or included provide a breadth of opportunities. The initial probability chapter,
Chapter 3, provides topics such as decision trees, overinvolvement ratios, and expanded
coverage of Bayesian applications, any of which might provide important material for
local courses. Confidence interval and hypothesis tests include procedures for variances
and for categorical and ordinal data. Random-variable chapters include linear combina-
tion of correlated random variables with applications to financial portfolios. Regression
applications include estimation of beta ratios in finance, dummy variables in experimen-
tal design, nonlinear regression, and many more.
As indicated here, the book has the capability of being used in a variety of courses
that provide applications for a variety of academic programs. The other benefit to the stu-
dent is that this textbook can be an ideal resource for the student’s future professional
career. The design of the book makes it possible for a student to come back to topics after
several years and quickly renew his or her understanding. With all the additional special
topics, that may not have been included in a first course, the book is a reference for learn-
ing important new applications. And the presentation of those new applications follows
a presentation style and uses understandings that are familiar. This reduces the time re-
quired to master new application topics.
APPLYING CONCEPTS
We understand how important it is for students to know statistical concepts and apply
those to different situations they face everyday or will face as managers of the future. Al-
most all sections include examples that illustrate the application of the concepts or meth-
ods of that section to a real-world context (even though the company or organization may
be hypothetical). Problems are structured to present the perspective of a decision maker
and the analysis provided is to help understand the use of statistics in a practical way.
PROMOTING PROBLEM ANALYSIS

This book includes section Exercises and chapter Exercises and Applications. The section
exercises for each chapter begin with straightforward exercises targeted at the topics in
each section. These are designed to check understanding of specific topics. Because they
appear after each section, it is easy to turn back to the chapter to clarify a concept or review
a method. The Chapter Exercises and Applications are designed to lead to c onclusions
Preface 15

about the real world and are more application-based. They usually combine concepts and
methods from different sections.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We appreciate the following colleagues who provided feedback about the book to guide our
thoughts on this revision: Valerie R. Bencivenga, University of Texas at Austin; Burak Dolar,
Augustana College; Zhimin Huang, Adelphi University; Stephen Lich-Tyler, University of
North Carolina; Tung Liu, Ball State University; Leonard Presby, William Paterson Univer-
sity; Subarna K. Samanta, The College of New Jersey; Shane Sanders, Nicholls State Univer-
sity; Harold Schneider, Rider University; Sean Simpson, Westchester Community College.
The authors thank Dr. Andrea Carlson, Economic Research Service (ERS), U. S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, for her assistance in providing several major data files and for guid-
ance in developing appropriate research questions for exercises and case studies. We also
thank Paula Dutko and Empharim Leibtag for providing an example of complex statisti-
cal analysis in the public sector. We also recognize the excellent work by Annie Puciloski
in finding our errors and improving the professional quality of this book.
We extend appreciation to two Stetson alumni, Richard Butcher (RELEVANT Maga-
zine) and Lisbeth Mendez (mortgage company), for providing real data from their compa-
nies that we used for new examples, exercises, and case studies.
In addition, we express special thanks for continuing support from our families. Bill
Carlson especially acknowledges his best friend and wife, Charlotte, their adult children,
Andrea and Doug, and grandchildren, Ezra, Savannah, Helena, Anna, Eva Rose, and Emily.
Betty Thorne extends special thanks to her best friend and husband, Jim, and to their
family Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina, Jim, Wendy, Marius,
Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia. In addition, Betty acknowledges (in memory)
the support of her parents, Westley and Jennie Moore.
The authors acknowledge the strong foundation and tradition created by the origi-
nal author, Paul Newbold. Paul understood the importance of rigorous statistical analysis
and its foundations. He realized that there are some complex ideas that need to be de-
veloped, and he worked to provide clear explanations of difficult ideas. In addition, he
realized that these ideas become useful only when used in realistic problem-solving situ-
ations. Thus, many examples and many applied student exercises were included in the
early editions. We have worked to continue and expand this tradition in preparing a book
that meets the needs of future business leaders in the information age.
GLOBAL EDITION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We would like to thank the people who have contributed towards developing this book
for the global markets and who have put in effort to update this global edition for stu-
dents across the world.
Roland Baczur, PhD student at the University of Pécs
Alicia Tan Yiing Fei, Taylor’s University
Višnja Juric, Zagreb School of Economics and Management
Daniel Kehl, University of Pecs
Patricia Ramos, Nova School of Business and Economics
D.T. Tempelaar, Maastricht University
Dr. P.C. van Santen, University of Groningen
We would also like to thank the individuals who reviewed the text and whose feedback
has made this a better book.
Dogan Serel, Bilkent University
Manfred Soeffky, Berlin School of Economics and Law
Yuan Wang, Sheffield Hallam University
Ioannis Karavias, University of Birmingham
Baczur Roland, University of Pécs
16 Preface

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DATA FILE INDEX
Achievement Test Scores—Exercise 10.5 Happiness Report Data—Exercises 9.66, 9.67, 9.73,
Advertising Retail—Example 13.6 10.33, 10.34, 10.42, 10.43, 10.46, 11.92–11.96, 12.101,
Amsterdam Rents—Exercises 11.24, 11.30, 11.38, 11.46 12.102, 12.105
HealthTech—Exercise 2.45
Baby Walking—Exercises 8.14, 8.32, 14.17 HEI Cost Data Variable Subset—Examples 1.1, 1.2, 2.7,
Bank Assets—Exercises 16.36, 16.38 7.5, Exercises 11.97–11.101, Chapter 13 Case Study,
Beef Veal—Exercises 13.63–13.65 Case Studies 12.114–12.117
Benefits Research—Example 12.60 High Yield Index—Exercises 16.2, 16.7, 16.14
Births Australia—Exercise 13.17 Hotel—Exercise 1.68
Bottles—Exercise 6.82 Hourly Earnings—Exercise 16.19
Brent Oil Price— Exercise 14.49 House Selling Price—Exercise 10.4, Case Study 12.110
Britain Sick Leave—Exercise 13.56 House Starts—Exercise 16.1
Browser Wars—Exercises 1.19, 1.25 Housing Starts—Exercises 1.28, 16.6, 16.13
Citydatr—Examples 12.7, 12.9, 14.14, Exercises 1.46, ICU—Exercises 9.72, 9.74–9.78

11.84, 12.31, 12.100, 12.103, 13.22, 13.60 Indonesia Revenue—Exercise 13.52
Completion Times—Example 1.9, Exercise 13.6 Inflation Euro Area—Exercises 13.16, 13.38
Croatian Coffee—Exercise 2.25 Insurance—Example 1.4
Currency Exchange Rates—Example 1.6,
Japan Imports—Exercise 13.54
Exercise 1.24
Library Survey—Exercise 1.7
Diversity—Exercise 1.22
Dow Jones—Exercises 11.23, 11.29, 11.37
M&A Survey—Exercise 1.17
Macro2009—Examples 1.5, 1.7
Earnings per Share—Exercise 1.29
Macro2010—Example 13.8
Electric Cars— Exercises 1.37, 2.22, 7.6, 7.103, 13.29 Mendez Mortgage—Chapter 2 Case Study, Exercises
Euribor 12 Months—Exercise 14.48 7.5, 7.35, 7.36
Exchange Rate—Exercise 1.49 Metals—Exercise 13.59
Money UK—Exercises 13.31, 13.35
Fertility—Exercises 11.82, 11.83 Mortgage Banks—Exercise 10.48
Fuel Prices—Exercise 14.51 Motors—Exercises 12.13, 12.14, 12.48, 13.21
Gender Pay Gap— Exercise 1.71 OECD Employment Gap Data—Exercises 16.18, 16.20,
German Import—Exercise 12.61 16.40, 16.41
German Income—Exercise 13.53 OECD Lab Force Australia—Exercises 13.61, 13.62
GDP Growth—Exercise 16.11 OECD Lab Force Italy—Exercises 13.57, 13.58
Gold Price—Exercises 1.27, 16.5, 16.12 OECD Pay Gap Data—Exercises 16.42, 16.43
Government Net Lending Euro Area—Exercises 16.4, OECD Satisfaction—Exercise 11.86
16.23 Oulu Grades—Exercise 2.41
Government Revenue Poland—Exercise 16.9 Pension Funds—Exercise 13.15
Government Spending France—Exercises 16.3, 16.22 Performance—Exercise 12.82
Grade Point Averages—Examples 1.10, 2.3, Exercise 1.73 PISA Sample—Exercises 1.8, 1.18, 7.23, 10.51–10.58,
Granola—Exercise 6.84 12.92
23

Private Colleges—Exercises 11.87–11.91 Storet—Exercise 10.47
Product Sales—Exercises 16.37, 16.39 Student GPA—Exercises 2.48, 11.81, 12.99, 12.108
Profit Margins—Exercise 16.21 Student Performance—Exercise 12.71
Study—Exercises 7.86
Real GDP Germany—Exercise 1.50 Study Data—Exercise 2.10
RELEVANT Magazine—Examples 1.8, 2.19 Sugar—Exercise 7.24
Renewable Energy—Exercises 11.36, 11.52, 11.53, Sugar Coated Wheat—Exercise 6.83
11.85, 12.81, 12.104, 13.28 Sun—Exercise 1.39
Retail Sales—Examples 11.2, 11.3, Exercises 13.13, 13.26 Supermarket—Exercise 11.11
Returns—Exercise 1.38
Taiwan Real Estate—Exercises 8.34, 8.35, 9.68
Salary Study—Exercise 12.107 Tennis—Exercises 1.15, 1.70
Sales and Distance—Exercise 1.66 Tesla Stock Prices—Exercise 14.50
Salorg—Exercise 12.72 Thailand Consumption—Exercises 13.18, 13.36
Shiller House Price Cost—Example 16.2, TOC—Exercise 7.45
Exercise 12.109 Trading Stocks—Exercise 11.51
Shopping Times—Example 2.6, Exercise 1.72
Staten—Exercise 12.106 Windows Wars—Example 1.3
Stordata—Exercise 1.45 World Bank Commodity Prices—Exercises 11.64–11.67
24 Data File Index

C H A P T E R
1 CHAPTER OUTLINE
Describing Data:
Graphical
1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment

Random and Systematic Sampling
Sampling and Nonsampling Errors
1.2 Classification of Variables
Categorical and Numerical Variables
Measurement Levels
1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables
Tables and Charts
Cross Tables
Pie Charts
Pareto Diagrams
1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data
1.5 Graphs to Describe Numerical Variables
Frequency Distributions
Histograms and Ogives
Shape of a Distribution
Stem-and-Leaf Displays
Scatter Plots
1.6 Data Presentation Errors
Misleading Histograms
Misleading Time-Series Plots
Introduction
What are the projected sales of a new product? Will the cost of Google shares
continue to increase? Who will win the 2020 UEFA Champions League? How
satisfied were you with your last purchase at Starbucks, on alibaba.com, or
at IKEA? If you were hired by the National Nutrition Council of your coun-
try, how would you determine if the Council’s guidelines on consumption
of fruit, vegetables, snack foods, and soft drinks are being met? Do people
who are physically active have healthier diets than people who are not phys-
ically active? What factors (perhaps disposable income or grants) are sig-
nificant in forecasting the aggregate consumption of durable goods? What
effect will a 2% increase in interest rates have on residential investment? Do
25
M01_NEWB6845_10_GE_C01.indd 25 25/04/2022 15:29

credit scores, current balance, or outstanding maintenance balance con-
tribute to an increase in the percentage of a mortgage company’s delin-
quent accounts increasing? Answers to questions such as these come
from an understanding of statistics, fluctuations in the market, consumer
preferences, trends, and so on.
Statistics are used to predict or forecast sales of a new product, con-
struction costs, customer-satisfaction levels, the weather, election results,
university enrollment figures, grade point averages, interest rates, currency-
exchange rates, and many other variables that affect our daily lives. We
need to absorb and interpret substantial amounts of data. Governments,
businesses, and scientific researchers spend billions of dollars collecting
data. But once data are collected, what do we do with them? How do data
impact decision making?
In our study of statistics we learn many tools to help us process, sum-
marize, analyze, and interpret data for the purpose of making better deci-
sions in an uncertain environment. Basically, an understanding of statistics
will permit us to make sense of all the data.
In this chapter we introduce tables and graphs that help us gain a bet-
ter understanding of data and that provide visual support for improved de-
cision making. Reports are enhanced by the inclusion of appropriate tables
and graphs, such as frequency distributions, bar charts, pie charts, Pa-
reto diagrams, line charts, histograms, stem-and-leaf displays, or ogives.
V isualization of data is important. We should always ask the following
questions: What does the graph suggest about the data? What is it that
we see?
1.1 D ecision M aking in an U ncertain E nvironment
Decisions are often made based on limited information. Accountants may need to select
a portion of records for auditing purposes. Financial investors need to understand the
market’s fluctuations, and they need to choose between various portfolio investments.
Managers may use surveys to find out if customers are satisfied with their company’s
products or services. Perhaps a marketing executive wants information concerning
customers’ taste preferences, their shopping habits, or the demographics of Internet
shoppers. An investor does not know with certainty whether financial markets will be
buoyant, steady, or depressed. Nevertheless, the investor must decide how to balance
a portfolio among stocks, bonds, and money market instruments while future market
movements are unknown.
For each of these situations, we must carefully define the problem, determine what
data are needed, collect the data, and use statistics to summarize the data and make infer-
ences and decisions based on the data obtained. Statistical thinking is essential from initial
problem definition to final decision, which may lead to reduced costs, increased profits,
improved processes, and increased customer satisfaction.
Random and Systematic Sampling

Before bringing a new product to market, a manufacturer wants to arrive at some assess-
ment of the likely level of demand and may undertake a market research survey. The
manufacturer is, in fact, interested in all potential buyers (the population). However,
populations are often so large that they are unwieldy to analyze; collecting complete in-
formation for a population could be impossible or prohibitively expensive. Even in cir-
cumstances where sufficient resources seem to be available, time constraints make the
examination of a subset (sample) necessary.
26 Chapter 1 Describing Data: Graphical
M01_NEWB6845_10_GE_C01.indd 26 25/04/2022 15:29

Population and Sample
A population is the complete set of all items that interest an investigator.
Population size, N, can be very large or even infinite. A sample is an observed
subset (or portion) of a population with sample size given by n.
Examples of populations include the following:

• All potential buyers of a new product
• All stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange (LSE)
• All registered voters in a particular city or country
• All accounts receivable for a corporation
Our eventual aim is to make statements based on sample data that have some valid-
ity about the population at large. We need a sample, then, that is representative of the
population. How can we achieve that? One important principle that we must follow in the
sample selection process is randomness.
Random Sampling
Simple random sampling is a procedure used to select a sample of n objects
from a population in such a way that each member of the population is chosen
strictly by chance, the selection of one member does not influence the selec-
tion of any other member, each member of the population is equally likely to
be chosen, and every possible sample of a given size, n, has the same chance
of selection. This method is so common that the adjective simple is generally
dropped, and the resulting sample is called a random sample.
Another sampling procedure is systematic sampling (stratified sampling and cluster

sampling are discussed in Chapter 17).
Systematic Sampling
Suppose that the population list is arranged in some fashion unconnected
with the subject of interest. Systematic sampling involves the selection of
every j th item in the population, where j is the ratio of the population size N
to the desired sample size, n; that is, j = N> n. Randomly select a number from
1 to j to obtain the first item to be included in your systematic sample.
Suppose that a sample size of 100 is desired and that the population consists of 5,000
names in alphabetical order. Then j = 50. Randomly select a number from 1 to 50. If your
number is 20, select it and every 50th number, giving the systematic sample of elements
numbered 20, 70, 120, 170, and so forth, until all 100 items are selected. A systematic
sample is analyzed in the same fashion as a simple random sample on the grounds that,
relative to the subject of inquiry, the population listing is already in random order. The
danger is that there could be some subtle, unsuspected link between the ordering of the
population and the subject under study. If this were so, bias would be induced if system-
atic sampling was employed. Systematic samples provide a good representation of the
population if there is no cyclical variation in the population.
1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment 27
M01_NEWB6845_10_GE_C01.indd 27 25/04/2022 15:29

Sampling and Nonsampling Errors
Suppose that we want to know the average age of registered voters in the United States.
Clearly, the population size is so large that we might take only a random sample, perhaps
500 registered voters, and calculate their average age. Because this average is based on
sample data, it is called a statistic. If we were able to calculate the average age of the entire
population, then the resulting average would be called a parameter.
Parameter and Statistic

A parameter is a numerical measure that describes a specific characteristic
of a population. A statistic is a numerical measure that describes a specific
characteristic of a sample.
Throughout this book we will study ways to make decisions about a population pa-
rameter, based on a sample statistic. We must realize that some element of uncertainty will
always remain, as we do not know the exact value of the parameter. That is, when a sample
is taken from a population, the value of any population parameter will not be able to be
known precisely. One source of error, called sampling error, results from the fact that infor-
mation is available on only a subset of all the population members. In Chapters 6, 7, and 8
we develop statistical theory that allows us to characterize the nature of the sampling error
and to make certain statements about population parameters.
In practical analyses there is the possibility of an error unconnected with the kind of
sampling procedure used. Indeed, such errors could just as well arise if a complete census
of the population were taken. These are referred to as nonsampling errors. Examples of
nonsampling errors include the following:
1. The population actually sampled is not the relevant one. A celebrated instance of
this sort occurred in 1936, when Literary Digest magazine confidently predicted that
Alfred Landon would win the presidential election over Franklin Roosevelt. How-
ever, Roosevelt won by a very comfortable margin. This erroneous forecast resulted
from the fact that the members of the Digest’s sample had been taken from telephone
directories and other listings, such as magazine subscription lists and automobile
registrations. These sources considerably underrepresented the poor, who were pre-
dominantly Democrats. To make an inference about a population (in this case the
U.S. electorate), it is important to sample that population and not some subgroup of
it, however convenient the latter course might appear to be.
2. Survey subjects may give inaccurate or dishonest answers. This could happen be-
cause questions are phrased in a manner that is difficult to understand or in a way
that appears to make a particular answer seem more palatable or more desirable.
Also, many questions that one might want to ask are so sensitive that it would be
foolhardy to expect uniformly honest responses. Suppose, for example, that a plant
manager wants to assess the annual losses to the company caused by employee
thefts. In principle, a random sample of employees could be selected and sample
members asked, What have you stolen from this plant in the past 12 months? This is
clearly not the most reliable means of obtaining the required information!
3. There may be no response to survey questions. Survey subjects may not respond
at all, or they may not respond to certain questions. If this is substantial, it can
induce additional sampling and nonsampling errors. The sampling error arises
because the achieved sample size will be smaller than that intended. Nonsampling
error possibly occurs because, in effect, the population being sampled is not the
population of interest. The results obtained can be regarded as a random sample
from the population that is willing to respond. These people may differ in impor-
tant ways from the larger population. If this is so, a bias will be induced in the
resulting estimates.
28 Chapter 1 Describing Data: Graphical
M01_NEWB6845_10_GE_C01.indd 28 25/04/2022 15:29

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CHAPTER VII.
HANNIBAL’S FIRST TRIUMPH.
“Now, Maharbal,” quoth the chief, “I would talk to thee no longer as

one general to another, but simply as man to man. What about my
daughter Elissa? Hast thou forgotten her? Hath not perchance all
this terrible fighting for the last six months knocked all the love
nonsense with which thou wast imbued out of thy warlike head, or is
there still left paramount therein the memory of that girl of mine?
Now, wilt thou answer plainly, for I have something to propose to
thee which may be of importance?”
Maharbal made no answer, but Hannibal rose, unlocked a small
casket and drew out a scroll, which he perused while waiting for a
reply.
“Well,” he remarked, seeing that no reply came, “I would know thy
mind on this matter, my friend.”
“Hannibal,” said Maharbal, rising in turn, and confronting his Chief,
“Hannibal,”—then he paused and threw down his sword with a
somewhat angry and impatient movement—“by what right dost thou
talk to me of Elissa? What is it to thee if I should think of her still or
no? As a warrior and my Chief I may listen to thee, ay, both must
and would listen to thee; but what have women to do with me now? I
am here to fight for Carthage and mine honour, ay, and for thine own
honour, too, Hannibal, but nothing more.”
“Honour is honour, but friendship is friendship. War is also war,
and we are all for our country; but private interests, nevertheless,
rule us all at times. Thou knowest this as well as I, therefore, as
friend to friend, tell me now the truth, Maharbal.”
“Well, the truth is this, Hannibal. When I meet a foe and he
confronts me,”—Maharbal excitedly arose and seized his sword and
shook it savagely—“I say to myself, ‘This for Elissa.’ Then I strike
home. When my foe is struck down and bleeding at my feet, and the
point of my weapon is at his throat, again I sometimes say to myself,
‘I spare thee for the sake of Elissa,’ and thus it ofttimes haps that a
human life is saved. When again I charge into the battle, the one
sweet name Elissa is ever on my lips. When I was day after day in
those terrible passes of the Alps, and the rocks and boulders falling
all around me slew so many of my friends and fellow-warriors, but
one thought arose to my brain, and it was this, I care not for death
itself, but will Elissa regret me? And now, Hannibal, my friend and
my Chief, thou hast thine answer; I need say no more.”
“Nay,” said Hannibal, “thou hast said enough; I understand thee—
thou art constant. But will she be equally constant? It may be years
ere thou see her again. But young is she, and springing from a very
passionate stock; her mother was an Iberian woman. What wouldst
thou do supposing that she proved inconstant unto thee and loved
another?”
“Do?—why, fight for Carthage still. What else could I do? Ay, and
scorn her, too, if inconstant; nought else could be done than that.”
“Well, listen, I have something to propose. Thou seest this scroll.
’Tis a letter to my daughter Elissa. To-morrow we may have a fight,
not with these Gauls alone, who have already learned to fear me, but
with Scipio himself, with Roman legions at his back.
“It may be that, owing to the somewhat demoralised condition of
our army, Scipio should prove victorious; it may be otherwise; yet my
belief in the gods is so great, that I think I shall overthrow him.
Whatever may chance, I must send my messengers with tidings
back into Iberia to say that we are now safely across the Alps; to
inform first my daughter Elissa at New Carthage, and then to bear
intelligence unto my brother Hasdrubal, in those northern parts
beyond the Ebro, where, I have learned, that Cnœus Scipio hath
proceeded to attack him. Now, Maharbal, I need a trusty messenger;
wilt thou be the bearer of the message? I have in the camp a
chieftain of the Insubrian Gauls, who hath promised me a small fleet
of ships at Genua, by which thou couldst proceed to New Carthage,
where Elissa will doubtless warmly welcome thee to her loving arms.
Wilt thou go? that is if thou shouldst survive to-morrow’s fight. Think,
my lad, after all this hardship, how sweet will be the delights of love.
Moreover, now that thou hast, by thine incessant toil and valour,
brought the cavalry, or rather a great part of it, over the mountains in
safety, know this, I will no longer withstand thy wish. Thy nuptials
with my daughter shall be recognised, and thou and Elissa shall be
man and wife.”
Maharbal’s face flushed as he leaned forward on his seat and
gazed at Hannibal with undisguised astonishment.
“My lord Hannibal, hast thou then forgotten the toast we drank to
one another at Saguntum? ’Tis true I love Elissa more than all the
world as a woman; but I love thee, mine own honour, and my country
Carthage, more than any woman living, be she even thine own
daughter and mine own beloved bride. Therefore must I decline to
leave thy side, oh Hannibal, to seek repose in thy dearest and most
beloved daughter’s arms. My duty is here, and here, with all
deference unto thee, I stay. Through life and death I am thine, but to
do thy bidding in our country’s cause. My personal longings and
lovings are now things unknown. I fight for Hannibal and for
Carthage; all else is forgotten, or, if not forgotten, must and shall be
crushed from out my breast. And yet, the gods are my witness, I love
Elissa far more than all.”
Maharbal rose, and sought to leave the tent; but as he rose,
Hannibal detained him by placing a hand on his shoulder.
“I admire thee, Maharbal, far more than if thou hadst acceded to
my request. In truth thou hast enacted a right noble part. But should
we both live, I shall not forget it, and thou thyself wilt not regret it.
Should we die, I feel convinced that all the gods who, in my vision,
promised me a future reward, will recognise thy virtue, and bestow a
far higher reward upon thee. Ay, Melcareth shall smile and shower
his blessings upon thee. Tanais shall make thee happy with such a
thrilling and heavenly love as never yet mortal hath known; while the
great Moloch, god of war, shall surely exalt thee to high rank in his
celestial armies. Thou hast, indeed, chosen the higher and the better
path. I pray the great god Melcareth, that, in my prolonged absence
from her side, he inspire Elissa’s heart also with devotion to her
country, with constancy and virtue. But ’twill be merit great, indeed,
to be worthy of a virtue so great as thine. And now, let us go forth,
since I must seek some other messenger to bear her my scroll, and
thou thyself canst, if thou wilt, despatch a letter by the same hand.
But nothing can be done before we have first once met the Romans
here on Italian soil.”
The rest of the day was spent in that camp by the Ticinus in
preparations for the great cavalry reconnaissance, which Hannibal
intended to conduct in person, on the morrow. Armour was furbished
up, swords and darts were sharpened, bits and bridles were seen to.
All the cavalrymen, even although the infantry suffered somewhat in
consequence, were thoroughly well fed, and also supplied with a
liberal allowance of wine. Olive oil was dealt out to them all,
wherewith to anoint themselves and make their limbs supple, and a
day’s rations, to be carried on the morrow, was served out to each
man. Scouts from a reserve body of horse, that was not to be
employed in any fighting on the morrow, were sent out to watch the
enemy’s movements, with instructions to leave a series of detached
posts at intervals, by whom, owing to there being thus relays of fresh
horsemen ready, news could be swiftly conveyed to the Carthaginian
Chief of Scipio’s slightest movements. All these details Hannibal, not
content with trusting to subordinates, saw to personally, for as he
was, saving only Maharbal, the strongest man in the army, so was
he also the most indefatigable. Throughout the whole of that day,
therefore, he scarcely rested, but visited every part of the camp and
every troop in turn, seeing that his instructions were carried out
absolutely to the letter, and speaking grand and noble words of
encouragement wherever he passed.
When, therefore, after a substantial breakfast, the whole of the
cavalry paraded on the following morn, it was no longer a starveling,
dispirited body of men that fell beneath his gaze, but a gallant band
of warriors bearing confidence in their glance, self-reliant, proud, and
anxious for the fray. Well satisfied with the noble bearing of his
followers, after having first ridden round the ranks and complimented
his men upon their brave and soldierly appearance, Hannibal bade
his trumpeter sound the advance, and himself led the way. As he put
his horse in motion, the whole army burst spontaneously into a cheer
—“Hannibal! Long live Hannibal.”
Clad in gorgeous but serviceable armour, with dancing plumes
waving from the crest of his helmet, the gallant Carthaginian General
was indeed, as he marched forth that morn to meet the Romans for
the first time in his career, such a leader as the world had never
seen.
As the cavalry, by troops and squadrons, filed off in succession
after him, silence fell among their ranks. But the infantry soldiers and
also the Gauls remaining behind in camp continued the shouts of
enthusiasm. “Hannibal! Long live Hannibal!” For it was for him, the
General alone, and his personal influence, more than for a Carthage
which was to most of them but a name, that these troops, drawn
from many mixed tribes and nations, were willing and ready to lay
down their lives. And it was ever so; it was Hannibal’s army, not a
Carthaginian army that so often defeated Rome.
Thus gallantly encouraged by the shouts of their comrades did the
whole of the Carthaginian horse march off down the banks of the
river Ticinus. For a considerable distance the ground was broken
and rocky, and considerably wooded, and not at all suitable for the
manœuvring of mounted troops. But, at length, after a march of
some three hours’ duration, just at the very spot which suited his
purpose, Hannibal was met by the first of his scouts coming in and
informing him that Scipio had started with his forces, and was now
crossing the river. They gave the further information that there was
no occasion for hurry, as each relay of messengers had galloped
back hard, and that the remainder of the vedettes, now retiring
leisurely before the advancing foe, would give timely warning of their
nearer approach.
The ground whereon the front of the column was standing when
this news arrived was at the edge of an extensive copse of detached
oak trees, beyond which was a large open plain of what had earlier
in the year been cultivated ground. Drawing up all his forces just
inside the edge, and in the shelter of the trees, in the order of battle
which he intended to employ later on, the Chief now gave the order
for the men to dismount to rest the animals, and to eat a portion of
the rations that they had brought with them. He had a short time
previously made each troop halt in turn at a convenient shallow
place in the river Ticinus to give their horses a mouthful of water—
therefore no possible precaution had been neglected to bring his
forces fresh into battle. While halting in the shelter of the oak trees,
several more groups of messengers came in from the front. From
these Hannibal learned without a doubt that Scipio was advancing
only with his cavalry and light-armed footmen, and that from all
accounts the numbers of the former were, if anything, somewhat
inferior to his own.
He was in high glee as he stood talking to a group of his officers,
and rubbed his hands cheerfully.
“Melcareth hath surely delivered them unto us,” he said, “for this
foolish Scipio hath, by leaving his heavy-armed infantry behind,
played beautifully into my hands. And thou, my bloodthirsty
Monomachus, shalt soon have thy fill of slaying.”
“I care nought so that I slay but Scipio himself! So that ere I perish
myself, I dip my hand into the life-blood of the Roman Consul, I shall
die happy.”
Hannibal laughed, then gave the order to mount, but for the troops
still to remain within the fringe of the covert underneath the
spreading oaks.
While waiting thus, there suddenly arose a fleeting squall of driving
wind and rain, which tore the leaves with fury from the oaks, sending
them whirling in all directions, while the acorns, which abounded, fell
pattering and clattering in shoals upon the armour of the warriors.
The men, who were superstitious, knew not how to interpret the
augury; but their Chief was equal to the occasion.
“A glorious omen!” he proclaimed aloud, with a laugh. “Even as the
falling of these acorns, so shall fall the hordes of the advancing
enemy beneath the storm of our attack. See how the elephants are
calmly picking them up, and devouring them! so shall we also devour
the foe.”
The word was taken up and passed round, and now the men,
reassured and in high good humour, caught the falling acorns and
tossed them gleefully at one another. Meanwhile, as Hannibal had
said, the huge elephants calmly waiting and swinging their fore-legs,
picked up one by one with their trunks all the fallen acorns within
reach and ate them with apparent relish. The sight of these huge
painted and horrible beasts, thus picking up and eating the little
acorns, was in itself so ludicrous that all those who could see the
sight now roared with laughter like very children. For, as all know
who have been present at a battle, during the time, be it short or
long, that men are waiting anxiously for the signal that shall engage
them in mortal conflict, the nerves are on edge. ’Tis then often the
slightest and most trivial circumstance that will sway a whole host to
tears or laughter, to reckless courage, or to shameful retreat. On this
occasion the whole force was overcome with exuberance of spirits,
and thus hearty and boyish laughter rippled along the ranks.
It was, in sooth, a strange sight to see these gigantic animals so
peacefully enjoying themselves at such a moment with such trivial
food. For to look at them they seemed more like monsters ready to
devour men.
There were that day twenty-four of them present, twelve being
placed at intervals on each flank. Every elephant had its head and
trunk painted crimson with vermilion; the body was painted black,
with white stripes on the ribs, and the legs white to the knee and red
below. To each tusk, and all were tuskers, were fastened huge two-
edged swords; round the upper part of each of the fore-legs was
clasped a band set with terrible and glistening spikes; and, to crown
all, each elephant had round its trunk, near the lower extremity,
several heavy iron rings. With these they were trained to strike. An
ordinary elephant is to those with weak nerves a sufficiently
appalling sight. Judge, then, what would be the effect upon those,
who had never seen the beasts before, of the appearance of these
awful monsters. The elephants were that day in light marching order,
and therefore they carried no castles. Instead, on the back of each
was a light pad, on which sat, secured with ropes, and having also
rope foot-rests, eight archers, four on each side, plentifully supplied
with heavy arrows. Seated upon the neck of every beast was an
Indian driver, completely covered with light armour of chain mail, and
carrying, in addition to the goad with which he urged his beast, a
quiver full of short and heavy darts to hurl at the foe at close
quarters.
The order of battle was fully formed. The heavy Spanish cavalry
were in the centre; then on each side were twelve elephants; beyond
them again on each flank large bodies of the Numidian horse,
Maharbal commanding the right wing, and Chœras the left of the
Numidians.
Presently the last of the scouts came in, saying that the Romans
were now close at hand, and almost instantly their light-armed
javeline men and archers appeared, swarming on the plain. In rear of
them, at a short distance, could be seen the allied Gallic and Roman
cavalry advancing at a slow pace in a splendid line, with small
intervals between the separate troops. Hannibal allowed the light-
armed men to advance well out into the plain before he stirred from
the shelter of the oak trees. Thus he was well able to take stock of
the Roman numbers before engaging, while they could not possibly
form any idea of the numbers that he had at his own command.
Speedily sending an aide-de-camp to both Maharbal and Mago with
orders to remain for a short time longer concealed in the forest, he
now caused the “advance” and “the trot” to be sounded by his
trumpeter. In a steady line, with himself and Monomachus at the
head of the centre, the Iberian cavalry instantly emerged from their
shelter, the huge elephants lumbering along with ungainly tread at an
equal pace on each flank, and by command of their drivers, raising
their trunks on high and loudly trumpeting as they advanced. The
sudden appearance of this hitherto unseen army of cavalry, coupled
with the awesome sight of these terrible and frightful creatures, at
once struck terror into the heart of the light-armed Roman troops.
Seeing that certain death awaited them if they remained, they
instantly broke and fled, retreating through the intervals between the
troops of cavalry, and re-forming into companies in rear. But Scipio
himself, whose presence was denoted by a standard surmounted
with the Roman eagle, was with the main body. He had previously
exhorted them: saying that the Carthaginians were but curs with their
tails between their legs, who had fled before his cavalry on the banks
of the Rhone, and they believed him. Hence there was no flinching in
the ranks.
Hannibal now ordered his trumpeter to sound “the gallop,” and in a
second, with thundering footfall, the whole of his heavy cavalry,
armed with both spears and swords, the latter being attached to the
saddle, advanced with the speed of lightning.
Scipio also sounded “the charge,” but the retreat of his light-armed
footmen had somewhat delayed him. Therefore, when the two forces
met in shock of battle, the greater impetus being with the
Carthaginians, the Romans were at first borne backwards, hundreds
of men and horses being cast to the ground at the very first dreadful
onslaught. It was a terrible and an awful sight, that fearful rush and
the meeting between the two cavalry forces. And now it was every
man for himself, and both sides were equally determined. The
Romans, at first borne back, soon rallied; spears on both sides were
cast away as the horses fell in hundreds, and, foot to foot and hand
to hand, the whole plain was soon one seething and struggling mass
of murdering humanity. Now, however, the elephants came in upon
each flank of the Romans. Charging down, striking with their trunks,
destroying with their horrible scythe-like swords, frequently kneeling
upon and crushing their opponents, they carried all before them on
the flanks. All the time, the archers on their backs discharged from
close quarters the heavy-headed arrows from their bows. The effect
of this charge on the flanks, however, was but to consolidate the
Roman centre. Gallantly the Romans fought, never yielding a foot,
and many were the Iberians who fell before their dreadful valour
never to rise again. In the midst of all, mounted on a splendid bay
charger, was Publius Scipio. Separated from him at but a short
distance was Hannibal, above whom, borne by his ensign, waved
the flag of Carthage, the white horse upon a purple ground. The two
Generals could, for a while, plainly see each other, and, each
grinding his teeth and shaking his fist with rage at the other, they
tried to come to mortal combat. But it was in vain: the struggling,
thrusting, killing throng of men, swaying first this way and then that,
swept them apart, and in a short time the rush of battle had severed
them completely. Each had now to defend himself, and they saw one
another no more. At length the tide of battle seemed going to the
Romans. The Carthaginians slowly but gradually began to give
ground. A few of those in rear of the centre began to retire. The
wounded were pouring back in streams; riderless horses, many of
them with their entrails hanging out, were, while shrieking with agony
as only a horse can, wildly careering about the plain.
And now came the opportunity for which the young warrior
Maharbal had been waiting, and he took it. For fully an hour he had,
from his shelter in the oak wood, been watching the ebb and flow of
the battle, and terrible had been his anxiety and great his
impatience. But he had in himself the makings of a great general,
and he wisely refrained from interfering too soon. He sent a
messenger to summon Chœras to him, and imparted certain
instructions before sending him back to his own wing.
“Now, Chœras,” he said, “notice this and no jesting! Keep thou all
thy men carefully concealed until thou shalt see me issue alone from
the wood with this scarf waving on my sword. Then if I raise it slowly
and wave it once downwards, gallop with thy party and attack the
enemy’s right flank. If I raise it again slowly and wave it downwards
twice, do thou, avoiding the enemy’s flank, sweep completely round
and attack the rear. Never mind what mine own movements may be,
thou hast but to obey mine orders. Of one thing be careful, that is, if I
wave twice to slay all those footmen who retreated through the
enemy’s ranks before thou makest any attack upon the cavalry from
the rear. For they are Romans—the cavalry are chiefly Gauls, and I
will dispose of them myself. But do thou be careful to despatch the
footmen first; dost thou understand?”
“Ay, ay, Maharbal, I understand full well; but may I not start now?
The clash and conflict of the battle are getting too much for me; I
cannot, I fear, control either my feelings or my men much longer; I
long to be at them. I can only express my feelings in verse.
“A poet I, yet thirst for blood,

For Roman blood I call!
And I would storm as mountain flood,
E’en though as flood I fall.
“There, would that not do for Sosilus? He would be delighted to

parse, dissect, and destroy that little verse of mine, if he were only
here. But, by Melcareth, Maharbal! versifying apart, do let me get at
them soon; I can hardly keep my seat upon my horse for
impatience.”
“Well spoken, my gallant poet,” replied Maharbal, smiling; “thou
shalt, I wager, soon have plenty of mountaineering work to do in
climbing over the bodies of the slain, so be not impatient. But one
word. In attacking, look thou well to thy guard—you poets are so
incautious. After striking, ever raise thy wrist and cover thyself again
before another blow. Now farewell, and the gods be with thee; return
to thy troops.”
Very shortly after these orders had been given, Maharbal issued
from the wood and waved his sword with the attached handkerchief
twice. Like arrows Chœras and his men started from their cover, and
sweeping over the plain, avoiding the flanks, fell upon the rear of the
Romans. Dreadful then was the slaughter of the footmen who had
retired behind the Roman cavalry. At the same instant Maharbal
swept round the other flank, and, leaving the footmen alone, fell with
his men upon the rear of the Roman cavalry. The whole aspect of
the battle was changed in a moment. The whole Roman force, with
the exception of a band that rallied around Scipio, broke and fled,
and the greater part of the Carthaginian horse pursued them.
Maharbal, however, charged the serried foes around the Roman
leader, and with his terrible blows had soon cut a lane right through
their ranks up to the Commander himself, slaying the standard-
bearer and seizing the standard. Vainly did Scipio raise his already
tired arm to ward off the fearful blow that Maharbal now dealt. He
struck at the Consul with all his force, but his sword, glancing off the
Consul’s helmet, clove his shoulder. It cut clean through his armour
and half-severed his right arm. The shock threw Scipio from the
saddle, and his attendants now fled to a man. Maharbal was about to
dismount, and secure the person of the Consul as his prisoner, when
suddenly Monomachus burst upon the scene, wounded and
dismounted, brandishing a bared dagger which he stooped to strike
into the prostrate Roman’s throat. But first he plunged his hand in the
Roman’s blood.
“Hold! hold, Monomachus!” cried Maharbal. “Slay him not, he is
the General and a noble foe, and he is moreover my prisoner. Thou
shalt not slay him!”
“Curse thee!” cried the slaughterer furiously, “I tell thee I will slay
him, ay, and thee too if thou interfere,” and he knelt over the body of
Scipio to despatch him.
At that moment there came a shock. A young Roman officer with
five or six followers charged in upon the scene. With one spear-
thrust the leader transfixed the neck of the bloody Monomachus, and
then he instantly turned upon Maharbal.
“Ha! we meet again,” he cried, and rushed upon him. It was young
Scipio! But he was no match for Maharbal, who easily avoided the
spear-thrust, and then with a scornful laugh charged him in turn.
Striking him merely with his fist, he knocked him off his saddle.
“Ay, once again we meet and once again I spare thee, Roman!” he
cried, “and again I spare thee simply for thy valour’s sake.”
Then seeing himself surrounded by Romans, he struck down a
couple of them, and pressing his horse out of the throng, escaped,
bearing the Roman eagle with him.
CHAPTER VIII.
EUGENIA.
What a glorious career of successes it was that was inaugurated

with this cavalry victory near the Ticinus! Had not the blood-thirsty
monster Monomachus been slain by young Scipio at the very end of
the action, he might not only have been able to gratify his wish of
plunging his arm into the blood—although it proved not indeed the
life-blood—of the Roman General, but he might have bathed
repeatedly during the next twelve months in rivers of blood. Success
followed on success. Like rats that leave a sinking ship, the Gauls in
the Roman army deserted in their thousands and joined Hannibal;
the Boii and other Cis-Alpine tribes first sent him ambassadors and
hostages, and then themselves came over with all their fighting men,
and, after the battle of the Trebia, the whole of Cis-Alpine Gaul was
in the hands of the invading Carthaginians.
Now the battle of the Trebia was in this wise. After the cavalry
action just described, the wounded consul Publius Scipio fled with
his army first across the Po, and then, after considerable losses at
the crossings of all the rivers, to some high ground near the River
Trebia, where the now-dreaded Numidian Cavalry were unable to get
at him. Here he was joined in his camp by the other consul, Tiberius
Sempronius, who brought his army from Ariminum, the combined
Roman forces amounting to over forty thousand men. The two
consuls were utterly unable to decide upon a concerted plan of
action; the wounded General wishing for time to get well, and to
accustom his newly-raised legions to campaigning for a while before
risking a general action. Tiberius, however, was anxious to gain
some military glory for himself, apart from his brother consul; he was,
moreover, jealous of the possible successes of the succeeding
consuls, the time for whose election was near at hand. He was
therefore only too anxious to risk a combat, and was constantly
urging Scipio to allow him to take the combined consular forces
against Hannibal.
But now mention must be made of the youthful Eugenia and her
amours with Mago.
Mago, the younger brother of Hannibal, was immediately, on the
death of Hannibal Monomachus, appointed to the supreme
command of all the Carthaginian cavalry. After the affair of the
Ticinus, he was ordered on to the pursuit, and he ceased not to
harass Scipio, even when he had encamped under the walls of the
city of Placentia. Here, one day in a bold foray, he destroyed a
portion of the camp outside the town, and in the tent of one of the
generals of the Roman allies, which he looted, he captured an Italian
maiden named Eugenia, a girl about twenty years of age, and of
surpassing beauty. She was by birth an Etruscan, and by some is
reported to have been the daughter, by others the niece, of the
general in whose tent she had been found.
Terrified at first, she was soon fascinated by the charm of Mago,
who was a young man of most handsome appearance, and who
loaded her with gifts and gold, which were liberally supplied by
Hannibal for a purpose. After a very few days, as Mago was well
acquainted with the Latin tongue, he had so completely won her to
him that she would have readily allowed herself to be burned with
fire for his sake, or, at least, to have given her life for his. Not being a
Roman, but an Etruscan, she had no particular love for Rome; but
youthful and ardent, and anxious to prove to Mago her great love for
him, she readily fell in with his wishes. Accordingly, after Scipio had
encamped upon the heights on a spur of the Apennines, she one
day, being aided by Mago, pretended to escape to the Roman camp,
where she arrived with torn raiment, dishevelled hair, and an
appearance of the greatest misery. Her curses and invectives
against the Carthaginians, and the story which she related of her
imaginary wrongs, utterly and at once disarmed all suspicion. The
fair maid Eugenia was therefore received with open arms and made
a most welcome guest in the Roman camp, where everyone pitied
her for the terrible misfortunes she had endured. Thus, there was
nothing that transpired there that she did not know, and when she
had found out all that was going on, she one night took an
opportunity of escaping, and rejoined her lover Mago. To him she
revealed everything, and Hannibal was at once put in possession of
all the information he required. Having thus gained knowledge of all
the cabals that were going on in the Roman headquarters, Hannibal
knew how to act, and determined to precipitate a conflict before the
Roman infantry were really sufficiently seasoned.
This he easily managed.
To Mago, through whose pretty lover he had gained so much
useful information, he assigned the most arduous post—that of
hiding by night in ambush in a wet water-course, with a party of two
thousand chosen horse and foot, to appear at a seasonable
moment.
Then early in the morning, after his own men had breakfasted by
the camp fires, a party of light-armed troops were sent out to draw
out the Romans from their camp, which was easily accomplished,
the Romans, under Sempronius himself, thronging out, all unfed as
they were, and pursuing the apparently flying foe across the swollen
River Trebia. What followed is but history. After a bloody and
prolonged fight, Mago and his hidden troops suddenly appeared
from the water-course in rear of the Romans, and a frightful
slaughter ensued, the Numidians under Maharbal and Chœras
charging, as usual, in small groups, and advancing and retiring,
utterly disconcerting the enemy. The result of this terrible battle,
which was fought in a fearful snow-storm, was that out of forty
thousand troops engaged, only ten thousand survived and escaped
to Placentia. But the savage elephants, despite the snow, pursued
and slaughtered for hours and hours, until they could slay no more.
And this was the last fight in which the elephants were of any avail,
for the bitter cold weather which now set in soon killed them all but
one, and killed also thousands of the allied Carthaginians. As,
however, during the battle, the greatest losses among the
Carthaginians had taken place among the Celts or Gauls, Hannibal
still retained a large number of his original army of Libyans and
Iberians with whom to continue the campaign.
After this battle in the early spring, there were some terrible times,
during which, over and over again, it must be confessed, Maharbal
longed, but longed in vain, that he had taken the opportunity offered
him by the Chief of returning to New Carthage with the letter to his
beloved Elissa.
But there was no going back now, and, as he had cast in his lot
with his wonderful Chief, so was he compelled to go on. Therefore,
in the early spring, he crossed the Apennines, and for four
consecutive days and nights marched through the horrible swamps
and morasses between Lucca and Fæsulæ, where the only dry
places to be found at nights was upon the bodies of the dead
baggage animals. Here daily and nightly he strove to minister to
Hannibal, who, sorely afflicted with a terrible attack of ophthalmia,
which cost him an eye, nevertheless concealed his own agony, and
daily and hourly, riding upon the sole elephant that survived,
encouraged by his presence and example the troops under his
command.
Then came a short period of rest at Fæsulæ, during which the
Carthaginian troops contrived to regain a little of their lost vigour; but,
as many of the horses had lost their hoofs in the awful march
through the swamps, it fell to Maharbal and Mago, during this period,
to continually make sudden excursions where least expected, and
seize upon all the horses they could find.
It was now that Eugenia, the mistress of Mago, became most
useful. Carefully nurtured by Mago, and being accorded by Hannibal
all the comforts possible during this terrible march, she had not only
survived all its terrors, but was as strong and well, and, moreover, as
beautiful at its termination as she had been at its commencement.
She had, for concealment and convenience, been disguised as a
boy, and did not look while attired in male raiment more than about
fourteen years of age. She was strong and hardy, and being herself
an Etruscan, was well able to give every kind of information about
that country of Etruria wherein they now were. She was, however, no
longer entirely devoted to Mago, and this for a variety of reasons.
Perhaps the strongest of all was that she was a woman, and
consequently unable to continue ever in one mind. Therefore,
although she had deliberately given herself to Mago, under no
compulsion, but merely for love’s sake, she now had, so she
discovered, some religious scruples about her conduct. She talked to
Mago of the possible anger of the gods; at times, also, she became
cold to him, and reproached him with the sacrifices she had made for
his sake in leaving the Romans to wander about with him.
Mago for a time put up with these whims and vagaries, for he had
truly learned to love Eugenia; but there was one reason, at present
unexpressed, which daily made her more dissatisfied and
discontented.
Mago at length resented this treatment, as he wearied of her ill-
merited complaints. He now became, or at any rate pretended to be,
neglectful and cold in turn, and appeared to be entirely devoted to a
recently-captured slave girl.
Eugenia had, in reality, recently set her affections upon Maharbal,
and, as the days advanced, she fell madly in love with him.
Accordingly, during the rides through the districts of Etruria in search
of horses, Eugenia, now that Mago neglected her, attached herself
daily to the party led by Maharbal, and trying, indeed, did the young
warrior find these rides. For, faithful himself to Elissa, and quite as
faithful to his friend Mago, he was, nevertheless, violently moved by
the passion inspired by the beautiful Eugenia; and at length, so
overcome was he by her charms, her sweetness, and her very
evident admiration and love for himself, that he felt he must fall, and
yet he would not fall.
A crisis came. One day, when far away upon one of these raiding
expeditions, they had encamped for the mid-day meal in a wood,
and Eugenia, on some pretext, persuaded Maharbal to wander with
her through the most shady parts of the grove. Then suddenly losing
all reserve, she fell with tears upon his neck, and declared that she
loved him. Maharbal was, for a moment, overcome by the passion
with which he thrilled at the contact with her, and, for a fleeting
second, pressed her violently to his heart. But then, with a virtue
almost unknown in those times, he remembered his faith to his lover
—his almost wife—Elissa, and his faith to his friend—almost brother
—Mago, and a feeling of fury rose within him. He loosed the girl’s
arms from his neck with an angry movement.
“May the gods forgive me!” he cried, “but I know not what to do. I
desire thee intensely, thou beautiful Eugenia, and, indeed, I almost
love thee. But thou art not yet mine, and shalt never be mine, for I
will not be false as thou art thyself. And I should be doubly false
should I yield. Therefore, for thine own honour and mine own, thou
must die!”
Swiftly he drew his dagger, and, in spite of her one appealing cry,
slew her there on the spot, striking his dagger into her warm young
breast. Then covering his eyes with his hands, he hurried from the
dreadful place, horrified at what he had done, and yet feeling that the
omnipotent gods alone had guided the hand that struck the fatal
blow. And this, then, was the tragic end of poor Eugenia, who knew
not, when she had won a man’s love and given unto him all the most
precious gift of woman, how to remain faithful.
Maharbal was not the man to conceal an occurrence of this sort.
Upon his return to camp, he straightway repaired to Hannibal’s tent,
and begged for Mago to be summoned. After relating exactly what
had occurred, he bared his breast, and, presenting the hilt of his own
sword to Mago, said:
“Strike, Mago! for I have taken a life that should be dear to thee.
Strike! for I feel myself indeed worthy of death for having sent that
fresh young soul to Hades. But the gods are my judges, and if thou
wilt but strike, I shall soon appear before them to answer for my
conduct. Therefore, I say strike, and strike home!”
Mago did not strike. He burst into tears, and threw himself into
Maharbal’s arms.
“It is mine own fault,” he cried, “oh Maharbal, and deeply do I
grieve for the poor girl Eugenia. But far more deeply, friend, do I
grieve for thee, upon whom the gods have laid such a cruel burden,
as to compel thee, for thine honour’s sake and mine, to slay a
woman. For thou hadst no other alternative, save to become a base
villain.”
And again he wept, and Hannibal, who had in a fatherly way
himself loved the young maiden, being moved beyond words, silently
joined his brother and Maharbal in their tears.
There was much sadness that night in the camp of the generals,
and if virtue be, as the proverb saith, its own reward, then, for the
unhappy Maharbal, that reward was nought but misery.
After this, Maharbal became gloomy and morose. He quite lost the
youthful gaiety which had so often borne him up, and with which he
had in evil days encouraged others. For this affair preyed upon his
mind. In his dreams he would see the dead girl, by turns stretching
out her arms to him in imploring love, and then in imploring despair
as he was about to strike the fatal blow. He refused his food; indeed,
he was quite unable to eat. It was soon evident to all who knew him
that his mind was preying on his body, for daily he looked more wan
and ill, but he could not be comforted despite the efforts of his
friends to cheer him. It was in vain that the worthy and kind-hearted
Sosilus related for his benefit various real or imaginary histories, all
given with due chapter and verse, of some of the god-like heroes of
old, who, in similar cases, had behaved exactly like unto Maharbal
himself; these well-meant histories afforded him no comfort
whatever. He listened in silence. In vain also did Chœras force
himself to the most sprightly jests, or write the most comic and witty
verses, and read them to him aloud.
From sheer politeness’ sake Maharbal would force a smile, and
compliment his friend, but immediately afterwards would relapse into
moody silence as before.
Hannibal and Mago soon became quite alarmed, fearing that his
mind was becoming unhinged by his grief. But although they were as
brothers to him, and showered on him their brotherly love, nought
that they could do was of any avail. For Maharbal was haunted day
and night by the spirit of Eugenia. Throughout all his career, although
many women, in fact nearly all the women whom he met, as Melania
once wrote to Hannibal, fell in love with him, this secret and powerful
attraction which he had experienced for the lovely Eugenia was the
only passion for any other, save Elissa, that ever came to torture
Maharbal. But he kept his thoughts to himself and suffered in
silence, although ever haunted by the phantom of the slaughtered
girl.
Had it not been that the battle of Lake Thrasymene occurred just
about this time to divert the current of his thoughts, there is not the
slightest doubt but that Maharbal would shortly have died a raving
maniac. But Melcareth was merciful, and, by means of the distraction
of active warfare, withdrew the heavy hand which he had laid upon
the young man to try him; so that after the battle of Lake
Thrasymene Maharbal gradually, to the delight of his comrades,
recovered his health and spirits once more.
CHAPTER IX.
THRASYMENE.
The two new Consuls that year were Cnœus Servilius and
Flaminius, and they had between them some sixty thousand troops.
By so unexpectedly crossing the Apennines, and marching through
the awful marshes of the overflowed Arno, Hannibal had entirely
evaded Cnœus Servilius, who was left at Ariminum on the Adriatic,
but he now found Flaminius in Etruria, blocking the way to Rome
with a large force at a place called Arretium. Accordingly, Hannibal,
while still collecting horses and resting his troops, held one day a
council of war to consider the situation.
There were present, Mago, General Hanno, Maharbal, Hasdrubal
the pioneer, who had succeeded Monomachus as head of the
engineering department, Silenus the scribe, with writing materials
handy, and last, but by no means least upon this occasion, Sosilus,
who had, by this time, entirely undertaken the duties of head of the
intelligence department of the army, which were duties in which he
excelled. He had recently organised an excellent system of spies on
a large scale, and the scheme was working admirably. Nothing took
place in the Roman camp, or, for that matter, in Rome itself, without
his being informed; and of all occurrences of interest, Sosilus made
voluminous notes under alphabetical headings, with a view both to
present utility and to incorporation in his future history of the war.
Chœras returned from a horse-raiding expedition just as the
proceedings were commencing. He was not entitled by his rank in
the army to be present at a council of war, but Hannibal, who was
very partial to him on account of his ready humour, called him in as
he saw him marching, with a band of captured horses, past the open
door of the council tent. Hannibal was still suffering agonies from the
attack of ophthalmia, which had already cost him one eye.
Nevertheless, with his usual indomitable courage, as he sat at the
head of the council table, with a silk bandage over the diseased eye,
he looked as unconcerned and jovial as possible. No one could, for a

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Statistics for Business and Economics,

10th Global Edition Paul Newbold

Tenth Global Edition

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Cover image by Igor Kisselev/Shutterstock

Pearson Education Limited

and Associated Companies throughout the world

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© Pearson Education Limited 2023

ISBN 10: 1-292-43684-0 (print)

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I dedicate this book to my husband, Jim, and to our family,

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Data File Index 23

CHAPTER 1 Describing Data: Graphical 25

CHAPTER 2 Describing Data: Numerical 63

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions 150

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions 201

CHAPTER 6 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 248

CHAPTER 7 Estimation: Single Population 288

CHAPTER 8 Estimation: Additional Topics 332

CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Testing: Single Population 350

CHAPTER 10 Hypothesis Testing: Additional Topics 389

CHAPTER 11 Simple Regression 421

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression 477

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 555

CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Categorical Data 606

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 649

CHAPTER 16 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting 688

CHAPTER 17 Additional Topics in Sampling 720

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PROMOTING PROBLEM ANALYSIS

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GLOBAL EDITION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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MyLab™ Statistics is the leading online homework, tutorial, and assessment

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in one place—has made MyLab Statistics the Empower Each Learner

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Citydatr—Examples 12.7, 12.9, 14.14, Exercises 1.46, ICU—Exercises 9.72, 9.74–9.78

1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment 27