Population Growth in Economic Development

By comparing the pattern of population growth of developed countries after the Industrial
Revolution with that of today's developing countries we arrive at the following two points.
1. Acceleration in population growth: Prima facie, the speed of population growth in
today's developing economies is much faster than it was in advanced industrial countries
during their early phase of development. In the initial stage of industrialisation, today's
advanced economies experienced major acceleration in population growth rates relative to
that in the pre-industrial era. The average rate of population growth in today's developing
economies is 2.5% or even 3% or more than 5% in some low-income economies.
2. Exogenous growth: Economic history of developed countries amply demonstrates that
the acceleration in population growth was endogenous in nature. It was the result of
accelerated economic growth. Such growth provided the necessary inducement for
population growth. Acceleration in population growth was due to increased employment
opportunities, and the consequent income generation supported by growth in productivity in
the newly established industrial economies.

THEORIES OF POPULATION GROWTH

There are three theories regarding population growth: (i) the Malthusian theory, (ii) the
optimum theory and (iii) the theory of demographic transition. These theories may be briefly
discussed.
(i) The Malthusian Theory
Malthus argued that because land is fixed while labour inputs kept growing, the supply of
food would tend to grow by an arithmetic progression due to the operation of the law of
diminishing returns. When the law of diminishing returns starts operating due to fixity of
land as a factor of production, food production tends not to keep up with population growth.
In other words, the increase in population tends to outrun the increase in food supply and the
imbalance between the two is a symptom of over population as shown in Fig.1. Consequently
most people would be forced to live in misery and poverty, with wars, epidemics and famines
serving to slow the growth of population.

Fig-1: Overpopulation in Malthus’s theory

Actually, Malthus did not say that population would necessarily increase at a geometric rate.
This was only its tendency, if left unchanged. He referred to two checks that operate, in all
times and places, to hold population down, viz., (1) positive checks that increase the death
rate, such as pestilence, famines, wars and revolutions and (2) preventive checks such as
abstinence and postponed marriages (also known us moral restraint), vice and misery.
Malthus’s basic conclusions are the following:
1. Population is limited by the means of subsistence.
2. Population increases when the means of subsistence allows and does so geometrically,
while the best hope for increase in the food supply is arithmetic.
3. This asymmetry will persist, with the result that the population will be held in check by
the food supply unless prior checks on its increase are operative.
(ii) The Optimum Theory
There are different senses in which the term optimum population is used. It normally refers
to the size of population that maximises the average product or income per head. In such a
situation a

Fig-2: Maximisation of average product

society's saving ratio is likely to be maximised. In Fig. 2 when the population of a country
is P1, average product or output per head of the population is at its maximum. At this stage
marginal product (per head) is equal to average product. If marginal product is above the
average, the average product could increase by an expansion of the population. Conversely
if the marginal product is below the average, a further increase in population will reduce the
average product and the population will exceed the optimum level. This is the concept of
overpopulation according to the optimum theory.
An alternative definition of optimum population goes in terms of the level of population,
beyond which the average product in an economy falls below the level of production
necessary for subsistence, assuming that the total product is equally shared among all people.
In Fig. 3 population beyond P1 could not be supported because average product of the
population would be below the level of subsistence. So any population in excess of P 2 implies
overpopulation.
 Fig-3: The ‘optimum’ population
In still another sense population is optimal when total product is maximised, at P2.
(iii) The Theory of Demographic Transition
The natural rate (NR) of growth of population of a country, per annum, is the difference
between the birth rate (BR) and the death rate (DR). To this must be added the net effect of
migration, i.e., the difference between immigration (migration from other countries) and
emigration (migration to other countries), often called social changes in population.
The 'theory of demographic transition' defines changes in NR in terms of changes in BR and
DR.
The theory, in its original form, assumes the following sequence in, the course of
demographic changes:
Stage I: In the pre-industrial era, both BR and the DR are high with the NR remaining at a
very low level.

Stage II: With the initiation of modern economic growth, the first phase of demographic
transition (DT) begins. In this stage the DR begins to fall while the BR remains largely
constant. As a result there is acceleration of the NR.

Stage III: Then the third stage arises. In this stage, the BR begins to decline at a faster rate
than the DR. As a result the NR falls.

t0 t1

Fig-4 Demographic transition

After passing through all the three phases, the pre-industrial pattern of demography changes
— by slow population growth with high BR and high DR — is transformed, into the modern
pattern
that is also characterised by slow population growth, but with low BR and DR.
As Figure 4 shows, initially these countries had both high birth and death rates (stage 1), a
pattern followed by a fall in the death rate (stage II). This, in turn, raised the rate of natural
increase. After a few decades, this was followed by a drop in the death rate, which lowered
natural increase to around 1% (stage III).
The Transition in LDCs
However, the population histories of contemporary LDCs are in sharp contrast with those of
industrially advanced countries like that of Western Europe. In most LDCs the beginning of
a demographic transition is clearly visible. Population histories in such countries, as Todaro
has observed follow diverse patterns.
Largely due to early marriage of women, birth rates in most LDCs today are considerably
higher than they were in Western Europe before economic modernisation. Due to early
marriage of women two things happen:
(1) prolongation of the child-bearing age; and
(2) more families for a given population size.
This trend began in the 1940s and got accelerated in the next two decades, viz., 1950s and
1960s. During these two decades stage II of the demographic transition occurred in most of
the LDCs. Due to the application Of modern medical and public health technologies (both
domestic and imported) death rates began to fall more sharply than in the 19th century
Europe. The implication was simple: given their historically high birth rates over 40 per 1000
in many an LDC, stage II of the LDC demographic transition has been characterised by
population growth rates well in excess of 2-2.5% per annum.

Fig-5: Demographic transition in LDCs

As for stage III, it is not possible to arrive at a clear trend. Instead it is possible to distinguish
between two broad classes of LDCs, as Figure 5 shows.
In case A, (1) modem methods of death control and (2) rapid and widely distributed rises in
levels of living have conjointly contributed to falling death rate to as low as 10 per 1,000
and birth rates to levels between 20 to 30 per 1,000. Sri Lanka, South Korea, Costa Rica,
China, Cuba. Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia, Columbia, the Dominican Republic
and the Philippines have already entered stage III — a period of sustained fertility decline.
By contrast, most LDCs fall into case B of Figure 5. Most countries of Middle-East, sub-
Sahara Africa and some countries of Asia (like India) are still in stage II. Fig. 5 shows that
"after an initial period of rapid decline, death rates have failed to drop further, largely
because of the persistence of widespread absolute poverty and low levels of living.
Moreover, the continuance of high birth rates as a result of these low levels of living causes
overall population growth rates to remain relatively high". It is against this backdrop that
we must study demographic trends in India throughout the current century.

The Relationship between Economic Transition and Demographic Transition

There are three stages of a country's population history which correspond to its economic
transition, viz., evolution of the forces of production and accumulation.
Stage I: Stable population before economic modernaisation: Before economic
modernisation, i.e., in the pre-industrial stage all contemporary developed countries had
stable or very slow growing populations as a result of a combination of high birth rates and
almost equally high death rates. This trend persisted for centuries in predominantly agrarian
societies.
Stage II: Modernisation and population explosion: With industrial and economic
development, there is a trend toward modernisation and urbanisation. This stage is associated
with better public health care, nutritional diets, and higher incomes. These and other
improvements led to a marked reduction in mortality that gradually raised life expectancy
from under 40 to 60-65 years. However, the decline in death rates was not immediately
accompanied by a decline in fertility. As a result, there was population explosion in most
countries in the early stages of development due to widening gap between high birth rates
and falling death rates.
Stage III: Development and decline in fertility: In truth, stage II marks the beginning of
demographic transition - the transition from stable or slow-growing populations first to
rapidly increasing numbers and then to declining rates. Stage III was entered when the forces
and influences of modernisation and development lead to decline of fertility. Eventually
falling birth rates converged with lower death rate leading to population stabilisation, as Fig.
6 shows. Here we find levelling-off of the rate of population growth during a country's
economic development.

Fig-6: Three stages of demographic transition

In the context of LDCs we find the following relation between economic transition and
demographic transition:
1. In underdeveloped countries (i.e., subsistence agrarian economies) birth rates and death
rates are both high. So there is very little change in the overall size of the population.
 2. With economic development (i.e., industrialisation) PCI begins to rise and there is a fail
in the death rate (through better nutrition, sanitation, medical care, etc.) which brings about
a period of rapid population growth.
3. Provided economic growth as measured by the annual rate of growth of PCI is consistently
higher than the increase in population, PCI continues to expand and eventually serves to
reduce the birth rate. Small families become the 'norm' in societies as people seek to preserve
their growing affluence. At this stage of economic growth, population growth slows down
and may eventually level-off as Fig. 6 and Table 1 show.
Table 1: Association between Economic Transition and Demographic Transition

Economic Transition Demographic Transition

1. Pre-industrial society
2. Industrialisation (the take-off stage)
3. Drive to maturity and the age of high mass
consumption
Constant BR and constant DR—steady
rate of population growth
Fall in DR, constant BR—population
explosion
Population stabilisation with BR matching
DR

Demographic transition occurs when population of a country stabilizes with low birth rates
and low death rates. Once countries get rich enough, and infant mortality drops, people
voluntarily reduce their birth rates. When women are educated and emerge from
subservience they usually decide to spend less of their times in child-bearing and family-
related activities.
Families substitute quality for quantity — devoting lime and incomes to a better education
for fewer children.
Slowly the results of economic development and birth control are being felt. However, the
struggle against poverty induced by excessive population growth continues.

Concepts of Population
1. Birth rate: The birth rate refers to the number of children born alive each year per
1,000 persons (a crude birth rate of 20 per 1,000 is the same as a 2% increase). The birth rate
is the total number of births per thousand of population for all ages at a given period. This
rate relates the total number of births to the mid-year population. The birth rate shows the
percentage by which a country's population increases through births.
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝑳𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒊𝒅𝒅𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅
This measure does not take into account the age and sex composition of the population.
2. Death rate: The death rate refers to the yearly number of deaths per 1,000 persons— an
annual crude birth rate of 15 per 1,000 would constitute 5% of the population. So it is the
number of deaths from all causes in a given period per 1,000 of the population in a given
community Thus in finding the crude death rate the total number of death is related to the
total population. The total population refers to the estimated population at the middle of the
period for which the rate is calculated.
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝑫𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅
Crude Death Rate (CDR) = 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒊𝒅𝒅𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅
Specific Death Rate =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝑫𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒂 𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄 𝒄𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒓 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒄 𝒄𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒊𝒅𝒅𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒐𝒅
3. Fertility rate: The fertility rate refers to the average number of children a women would
have assuming that current age-specific birth rates remain constant throughout her child-
bearing years (15-49 years of age). In others words, it refers to the yearly number of children
born alive per 1,000 women within the child-bearing age bracket. The total fertility rate
(TFR) is the number of children that would be born to a women if she were to live lo the end
of her child-bearing years and bear children at each age in accordance with the prevailing
age-specific fertility rates.
The general fertility rate may be calculated from the birth rate if the male-female ratio is
known. If B is the total number of births in a population of N individuals of which F
represents the number of females in the child-bearing age and M the number of males then
B B F
the general fertility rate is 1000 = ÷ = the crude birth rate divided the
F alive (15−49) N N
numbers of females.
4. Infant mortality rate: It is refers to deaths among children between birth and one year of
age per 1,000 live births.
IMR = 1000 × Di (0 – 6) / Bi (0 – 6)
5. Life expectancy at birth: It refers to the number of years new born children would live
if subjected to the mortality risks prevailing for the cross section of population at the time of
their births.
6. Youth dependency ratio: It refers to the proportion of youths (under age 15) to
economically adults (ages 15 to 64). In LDCs this is very high. In general the work force in
LDCs must support almost twice as many children as it does in the wealthier countries.
In many LDCs the population under the age of 15 accounts for almost half of the total
population. This imposes a burden on the generally small productive labour force and on the
government, which has to allocate resources on such things at education, public health, and
housing for the consumption of people who do not make any contribution to production.
Demographic Unemployment
Demographic unemployment refers to joblessness whose immediate cause is change in the
composition of the labour force. Such unemployment can arise if the number of new workers
joining the labour force through natural increase or inward migration exceeds the number
leaving the labour force through retirement or emigration.
The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth
There are three basic reasons for continuous increase in the size of the population, mainly in
LDCs. The first two explain why the TFR may remain above replacement levels: (i) a desire
for large families (since children are a source of security for poor people) and (ii) a failure
to keep the size of the family small (by having unwanted children), (iii) The third reason is
the hidden momentum of population growth or, simply, population momentum. This is a
demographic concept and requires some explanation.
Populations, which have been growing rapidly, especially in developing countries of Asia,
Africa and Latin America, have large numbers of people in, or about to enter, the most fertile
age brackets. This is because today's children, who outnumber their parents, will become
tomorrow's parents. In other words, past fertility decisions echo far into the future.
Population momentum alone would surely add several billion more people to the world's
population in the 21st century.