IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL INSULATION, VOL. 29, NO.
1, FEBRUARY 2022 77
An Improved Dynamic Multi-Arcs Modeling
Approach for Pollution Flashover of
Silicone Rubber Insulator
Hamid Reza Sezavar , Graduate Student Member, IEEE,
Navid Fahimi , Graduate Student Member, IEEE,
and Amir Abbas Shayegani-Akmal
Abstract — This article presents a dynamic modeling
approach to analyze pollution flashover of silicone rubber
insulators. Pre-flashover conditions can be used to rep-
resent analytical formulations for different stages of dry
band arcing activities on the surface of polluted insulator.
In this article, effects of dust deposit as nonsoluble deposit
density (NSDD) are investigated on the dynamic behavior
of partial arcs on the surface of insulators by means of a
proposed multi-arcs modeling approach. It is shown that
analytical formulations of dynamic resistance of surface
pollution can be used to analyze different modes of arcing
as unstable and stable. Real data of leakage current (LC)
and flashover voltage (FOV) of polluted insulator are used
to make correlation with analytical multi-arcs formulations.
The proposed analytical multi-arcs model is based on an
artificial neural network (ANN) which is able to predict the LC
and FOV of the insulator in real-time monitoring. In addition,
effects of pollution resistance as variable surface conduc-
tion and thickness of pollution layer are investigated on LC
and FOV of the insulators. It is shown that the proposed
multi-arcs representation has a closer correlation with real
testing data in comparison to previous single-arc and multi-
arcs models.
Index Terms — Dynamic modeling, flashover prediction,
flashover voltage (FOV), leakage current (LC), pollution
flashover, self-consistent multi-arcs dynamic model, sili-
cone rubber insulator.
I. I NTRODUCTION
M ODELING of arcing behavior of polluted insulators
to predict their performance in harsh environmental
operation has always been of interest [1], [2]. Arcing analysis
in times of partial discharges and flashover on surface of
insulators plays an important role in modeling of critical pre-
flashover conditions. Analytical arcing study can be classified
as single-arc modeling [3] and multi-arcs modeling [4]. The
single-arc modeling approach is based on basic Obenaus’
model either in the static mode [5] or dynamic mode [1].
In this approach, a constant or time-variable resistor is used to
Manuscript received June 13, 2021; accepted December 31, 2021.
Date of publication January 31, 2022; date of current version March 15,
2022. (Corresponding author: Hamid Reza Sezavar.)
The authors are with the School of Electrical and Computer Engineer-
ing, High Voltage Institute, University of Tehran, Tehran 14399-57131,
Iran (e-mail: h.r.sezavar@ut.ac.ir).
Color versions of one or more figures in this article are available at
https://doi.org/10.1109/TDEI.2022.3146531.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TDEI.2022.3146531
1070-9878 © 2022 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See https://www.ieee.org/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
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model discharge of the insulator. Recently, single-arc modeling
approach is done by the use of circuit modeling [6], analytical
modeling [2], [7], and artificial intelligence (AI) [8]. In addi-
tion, a recent study is done to describe the dynamic behavior of
FOV in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) insulators with continuous
and discontinuous pollution types. This research develops a
comprehensive analysis of arcing propagation [9].
Multi-arcs approach in polluted insulators originated from
the work in [4], and it has attracted the interest from other
researches [10]–[12]. Recently, various methods based on
multi-arcs modeling approach are developed such as the study
on iced insulators with dc voltage input [13], performance
analysis of multi-arcs model with impulse voltage input [10],
and other multi-arcs modeling to improve prediction of
dynamic behavior of ice-covered insulators [12]. Dynamic
behavior of partial arcs is dependent on pollutant materials.
A critical challenging service of over-head distribution lines
in the south of Iran is the existence of dust storms and coastal
pollutants which are deposited on sheds of insulators during
time. When combined with water in wet conditions, this results
in flashover of insulators and outages of power distribution
lines.
The purpose of this article is to represent an improved
multi-arcs circuit model for silicone insulators which is able
to predict leakage current (LC) and flashover voltage (FOV)
of insulators according to the studied pollution. In addition,
an AI modeling based on artificial neural network (ANN)
is developed to calculate answers of the proposed circuit
model which can be used as an effective tool in real-time
monitoring of insulators. The proposed method can be used to
calculate critical points and predict LC and FOV of insulators
by receiving the LC and voltage of the insulator as input
according to the analysis of the proposed circuit model. There-
fore, combination of the improved multi-arcs circuit model
with ANN calculation results in effective real-time monitoring
which can be used to prevent flashover of insulators.
II. E XPERIMENT S ETUP
The general schematic of the experimental setup with a
power of supply equal to 100 kVA is shown in Fig. 1 [14].
All the samples are 20-kV polymer insulators with the same
silicone rubber material [14]. A mixture of sifted soil of
the south of Iran (Khuzestan province) and distilled water
78 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL INSULATION, VOL. 29, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2022
Fig. 1. Schematic of the experimental setup [14].
Fig. 2. (a) Surface configuration related to the multi-arcs model.
(b) Equivalent circuit related to the multi-arcs model.
is used as nonsoluble deposit density (NSDD) parameter of
pollution which would be coated on the surface of samples
according to IEC60507. The age of the samples is five years.
Hydrophobicity class of the samples based on IEC60815 is
HC3. After coating of the samples with pollution solution,
salt-fog test is performed with constant wetting rate and
specific different durations. In each test, the applied voltage
is gradually increased. At the time of t = 0, the input peak
voltage is set to 10 kV; then the voltage would be increased
by a step of 1 kV per minute, while the voltage and LC
waveforms are recorded. During the test, pollution is sprayed
into the test chamber with the constant equivalent salt deposit
density (ESDD) of a solution that is comprised by distilled
water and NaCl.
III. M ULTI -A RC M ODELING AND D ISCUSSION
Dynamic multi-arcs modeling includes n layers of dry band
and polluted band, respectively, which are in series in the
equivalent circuit model. Each layer of dry band and polluted
band is modeled as a variable resistor, and the border of the
layers is modeled by the use of variable capacitor. Fig. 2(a)
shows polluted surface modeling, and Fig. 2(b) illustrates
multi-arcs circuit modeling [10].
The voltage and current can be calculated as follows accord-
ing to the circuit model [10]:
Vi−1 (t) − Vi (t) = Ri (x, t)Ii (t)

Ii−1 (t) − Ii (t) = Ci (x, t)d Vi (t) dt .
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Fig. 3. (a) Surface configuration and (b) circuit configuration of two-band
multi-arcs model.
According to the proposed dynamic modeling approach,
first all the surface of the insulator is polluted, and through
wetting period, some wetting bands are formed which have
higher LC than polluted regions. This LC causes evaporation
of water, which results in the formation of dry bands on the
surface of the insulator. Elaboration of multi-arcs modeling
is complicated in aspects of analytical calculations; hence,
a simpler approximation according to Fig. 3 is proposed [15].
This modeling approach includes two layers of dry band and
two layers of polluted band, which is widely used in researches
to explain more specifically about pollution flashover than
single-arc modeling approach [10], [13].
In this modeling approach, it is assumed that each arc is
initiated from one electrode and formed on the two sides of a
dry band; and if electrode exists, it can also be formed on the
polluted band [15]. Therefore, as can be seen from Fig. 3(a),
the arc is formed in the beginning and ending regions of the
model because of the presence of electrodes. In the middle
regions of the model, it is assumed that the dry region is
divided into two parts, and arcs are formed on the two sides
of both the parts [10]. The final circuit model can be seen
from Fig. 3(b) which is drawn based on the multi-arcs circuit
model for the case that two dry bands and two polluted bands
exist. According to Fig. 3(b), the circuit elements are R pi ,
Rdi , and Ci as resistance of the polluted band, resistance of
the dry band (or discharge resistance), and capacitance of the
regions, respectively. It is also assumed that the arcing channel
is cylindrical with radius of ri and length of x i ; hence, Rdi can
be calculated from the following equation based on Mayr’s
equation [16]:
 
1 d Rdi 1 Rd I 2
= 1− i i (3)
Rdi dt τ NC
which τ , NC , and Ii are the time constant of the arc, static
constant of the arc, and LC, respectively [10], [17].
Based on the modeling approach that is presented in [1]
and [10], it is concluded that representing an effective resis-
(1) tance in the polluted band is complicated; thus, to represent a
(2) specific model, it is assumed that the width of the polluted
SEZAVAR et al.: IMPROVED DYNAMIC MULTI-ARCS MODELING APPROACH FOR POLLUTION FLASHOVER 79

band is much smaller than its length. Hence, R pi can be

calculated by means of Wilkins’ equation [18] as follows:
 
1 π(L i − x i − x i+1 ) ai
R pi = + Ln (4)
2πσi a 2πri
which L i , x i , ri , σi , and ai are the length of the i th polluted
band, length of i th arc, radius of the discharge channel,
conductance of the polluted surface, and width of the polluted
band, respectively. ri and ai can be calculated from the
following equations, respectively [1], [19]:

Ii (t)
ri = (5)
1.45π 
1
ai = π D + ep (6)
2
which Ii (t), D, and e p are the LC of the insulator, diameter
of insulator, and thickness of the pollution band, respectively. Fig. 4. (a) Surface pollution of the insulator. (b) Dry band arcing.
Finally, the existing capacitor between dry band and polluted (c) Surface discharges. (d) Flashover.
band based on cylindrical approximation can be calculated as
the following equation [10]:
∞
 high frequency of ignition and extinguish. If these unstable
Ci = 4π0ri sinh αi [sinh αi ]−1 (7) discharges join together, it is called “stable” arcs. In other
n=1 words, stable arcs are the case before flashover and unlike
which cosh αi can be obtained by the following unstable arcs do not occur with high frequency. Comparison
calculations [10]: between Fig. 5(b) and (c) shows that the unstable case has
features such as oscillating nature, low values of LC, high
L f − x1 frequency of discharges, and tends to develop on the surface;
cosh(α1 ) = (8)
r1 while the stable case is when the arc has already been
L 1 − x2 developed.
cosh(α2 ) = (9)
r2 Despite the adhesive nature of sand pollution on the surface
L 2 − x3 of the insulators, some narrow bands are formed on the surface
cosh(α3 ) = (10)
r3 during wetting period. According to [22], [23], the surface
L f − x4 of the insulator has surface conduction and transient LC at
cosh(α4 ) = (11)
r4 the beginning of the wetting period in low level of voltage.
Hence, LC pulses or streamers are observable on the surface
which L f is the leakage length of the insulator.
of the insulator which causes evaporation of surface water
due to existing heat that results in the formation of dry
A. Proposed Model bands. Development of dry bands results in an increase in
Fig. 4 shows the surface pollution of the insulator and surface resistance which results in the decrease in LC. Hence,
the discharge steps, which include dry band arcing, surface as can be seen from Fig. 5(b), some pulses are formed on LC
discharges, and flashover. The voltage and LC of the insulator (increase in LC at first and decrease in LC after formation of
during the test are shown in Fig. 5. Fig. 5(a)–(d) shows dry bands) [22]. As the voltage level of the insulator increases,
different stages of dynamic behavior of arcs as low current, oscillating pulses decrease and the formation of stable arcs can
dry band arc, stable arc, and flashover, respectively. As can be seen on the surface of the insulator. According to [23],
be seen from this figure, the LC of the insulator has severe this case is the partial discharge phase which is shown in
oscillations during initial times of the test [see Fig. 5(b)]. Fig. 5(c) which finally leads to flashover on the surface of
In fact, these oscillations demonstrate surface discharges or the insulator [see Fig. 5(d)]. In this case, high power arcs
beginning of dry band arcing which have a high frequency are widely extended along the surface of the insulator which
that is related to the type of pollution. This type of pollution results in many short-circuit currents causing an increase in
has an adhesive chemical constitution which originates from LC and intense decrease in voltage level consequently. This
dust storm of the south of Iran. In some researches, specific case finally leads to flashover of the insulator [22], [23].
models of discharge resistance are represented which can be As can be seen from Fig. 5, different stages of dynamic
used to analyze the dynamic behavior of arcs [20], [21]. behavior of arcs can be summarily explained as it is initially
Based on [20], the dynamic resistance includes unstable case oscillating, and later it enters the stable mode and finally
and stable case. The purpose of the word “unstable” arcs is flashover occurs. When flashover occurs, so-called “bridge”
that in case of achievement of dry band arcing, unstable and occurs on both sides of all dry bands [10], and multi-arcs mod-
transient discharges occur on the surface of the insulator. This eling is absolutely achieved. Therefore, it can be concluded
is called unstable because it tends to increase and extend with that in addition to (3) which describes the dynamic behavior

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80 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL INSULATION, VOL. 29, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2022

resistance in low-level LCs due to constant value of NC .

This can be achieved when the electrical conductance due
to thermal ionization is lost and energy mainly transfers
at radial thermal conductance [24]. Therefore, Cassie–Mayr
arcing model can be used in low-level LCs to improve dynamic
resistance modeling. In this case, both (3) and Cassie equation
as the following equation are used [24]:
 
1 dR 1 Ra2 Ia2
= 1− (12)
R dt τ E 02
which E 0 represents the momentarily constant steady-state arc
voltage.
To design the Cassie–Mayr model, dynamic resistance mod-
eling according to (12) with arcing constant of τ should be
primarily done until the value of dynamic resistance equals to
R0 in the following equation:
E0
R0 = (13)
IW J
which R0 is the value of arc resistance at about current zero.
Then, using the Mayr equation according to (3), the value of
constant NC can be calculated by the following equation:
NC = E 0 I W J. (14)
When the calculated dynamic resistance from the Mayr
equation reached its maximum value and started to decrease,
a new value of E 0 would be calculated according to (15).
This calculated value is again put into the Cassie equation;
hence, a new equation representing the dynamic behavior of
arc resistance would be obtained
E0 = N0 Rm (15)
which Rm is the maximum calculated value from the Mayr
equation [24].

C. Dynamic Resistance Modeling in Unstable Mode

Due to low level of LC, transient arcs with low energy
and time sequence turn on and off when this event occurs
in dry bands with constant or variable frequency due to the
type of pollution. Considering such events would be useful to
represent the final multi-arcs model. According to [20] and
Fig. 5(b), the Dirac delta function can be used to represent
oscillating behavior modeling which is expressed as the fol-
lowing equation:

δ(t) = (16)
π(t +  2 )
2

which  is the control parameter for peak dynamic resistance.

Fig. 5. Different stages of dynamic behavior of partial arc. (a) Low Also, another important parameter for control of oscillating
current mode. (b) Dry band arcing in unstable mode. (c) Stable arcing
mode. (d) Flashover.
frequency is defined as f . The values of f , , and N (as
the number of pulses in the testing period) can be determined
of discharge resistance, specific representation of dynamic according to Fig. 5(b) and pulses of LC. This is shown in
resistance of dry band based on both dynamic behavior of Fig. 6. In addition, the following equation represents the final
a real complete insulator and type of testing pollution can be form of Rua as resistance of unstable arc:
useful to improve analytical dynamic modeling.  N  
n
Rua = δ t− . (17)
B. Modeling of Low LC Resistance n=1
f
The Mayr equation, which was represented in (3), can According to Fig. 5(b) and N, pulses nearly begin in LC
be used to represent a suitable modeling of dynamic arcing of 1 mA [average value based on Fig. 5(b)], where f is about

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SEZAVAR et al.: IMPROVED DYNAMIC MULTI-ARCS MODELING APPROACH FOR POLLUTION FLASHOVER 81

and u t2 as arc extinction voltage. As a result, the following

equations can be expressed as
u t1 − u t2
u a (t) = u t1 + (t − t1 ) (20)
t1− t2  
π
i a (t) = Ia sin ωi t − − t2 (21)
ωu
where Ia , ωi , and ωu are the LC of the insulator in mA,
the angular frequency in (rad/ms) for sinusoidal LC, and the
angular frequency in (rad/ms) for voltage of the insulator,
respectively. t1 and t2 are the arc ignition time and arc
extinction time in ms, respectively. Also, u t1 and u t2 are the
corresponding voltages of arc ignition and arc extinction in kV,
Fig. 6. Variation in dynamic resistance during oscillations in the dry band respectively. As a result, dynamic resistance in stable mode as
arcing model. Rsa for LCs higher than 5 mA can be represented as follows:
u a (t)
Rsa = → Rsa (t, Ia )
i a (t)
u −u
u t1 + tt11 −t2t2 (t − t1 )
= . (22)
π
Ia sin ωi t − ωu
− t2

Fig. 7. Variation in voltage (green color) and current (dashed line with
blue color) during oscillations in stable mode.
5 kHz [based on Figs. 5(b) and 6]. As LC increases up to 5 mA
[average value based on Fig. 5(c)], it enters the stable mode
and f gradually tends to be zero [20]. Hence, f can be
expressed as follows:
f = 1250 ∗ (5 − Ia )
which Ia is the LC of the insulator in mA. According to the
calculated peak value of dynamic resistance from the Mayr
equation as Rm and variation in the dynamic resistance in the
unstable arc mode close to this value as well, the maximum
dynamic resistance can be approximated ten times of Rm [20];
hence,  can be calculated according to Fig. 5. Therefore, the
final expression for dynamic resistance is obtained as follows:
E. Computation Steps
The proposed model is based on the equivalent circuit that
was shown in Fig. 3(b) in which Rdi includes the resistances
of dry band arcing which were represented in (3), (12), (19),
and (22). In this research, an ANN model is developed to
do required calculation of the circuit model. The designed
ANN has two main purposes: first is the calculation of circuit
parameters and second is the prediction of LC and FOV of
insulator.
To achieve these two purposes, a feed-forward ANN type is
developed which uses testing data of silicone insulators with
different profiles as input values to train the ANN model [8].
The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is adopted and 38 hidden
layers are used in the development of the designed ANN
(18) model. Then, a genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize
obtained results and achieve method of least square (MLS).
The first purpose is to predict the circuit parameters according
to the following equations [10]:
Rd1 (x, t)
Vin (t) − V1 (t) = V4 (t)
Rd4 (x, t)
 4
d V i (t)
+ Rd1 (x, t) Ci (x, t) (23)
dt
i=1

N R p1 (x, t)
1 1 V1 (t) − V2 (t) = V4 (t)
Rua (t, Ia ) = 2 2
. Rd4 (x, t)
10π Rm n=1
t − 1250∗(5−I
n
a)
+ 1
10Rm  4
d V i (t)
(19) + R p1 (x, t) Ci (x, t) (24)
i=2
dt
Rd2 (x, t) + Rd3 (x, t)
V2 (t) − V3 (t) = V4 (t)
Rd4 (x, t)
D. Dynamic Resistance Modeling in Stable Mode
 4
According to Fig. 5(c), the dynamic resistance in stable + Rd2 (x, t) + Rd3 (x, t) Ci (x, t)
mode can be represented as sinusoidal resistance similar to i=3
Fig. 7. According to [20], [25], and Fig. 7, the arc voltage as d V i (t)
× (25)
u a (t) can be expressed by means of u t1 as arc ignition voltage dt

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82 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL INSULATION, VOL. 29, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2022

Fig. 8. Modified circuit configuration in bridge modeling. (a) Bridge in

the first band. (b) Bridge in the second band.

R p2 (x, t)
V3 (t) − V4 (t) = V4 (t)
Rd4 (x, t)
d V 4 (t)
+ R p2 (x, t)C4 (x, t) . (26)
dt
According to [10], when the arc is expanded on the surface
of the insulator, it can cause a “bridge mode” on the polluted
band; based on this explanation, the proposed circuit topology
is changed as shown in Fig. 8. The changes include either a
bridge in the first band as B1 [see Fig. 8(a)] or a bridge in the
second band as B2 [see Fig. 8(b)]. Then, the ANN model is
trained so as to calculate the critical LC and FOV according
to prediction of time series of LC. This training would be
achieved based on the circuit parameters and impedance crite-
rion in critical conditions which are illustrated in (27) and (28)
[according to Fig. 3(b)]: Fig. 9. Flowchart of computational steps based on the proposed ANN.

Rdi = Rd + Rua is performed based on the proposed ANN algorithm. After

⎧
⎪
⎪
Rd1
<
R p1
;
running the model, the values of LC and FOV are obtained.
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ X1 L1 Then, these parameters are compared with those of the single-
⎪
⎨ Condition that makes B1 a bridge arc model in [6] and multi-arcs model in [9] and [15]. Also,
→ (27) to make comparison with real type of testing insulator, the test
⎪
⎪ R d4 R p2
⎪
⎪ < ; data of a real 20-kV silicone insulator with specification shown
⎪ X4
⎪ L2 − X4
⎪
⎩ in Table I and with testing condition that was explained in
Condition that makes B2 a bridge.
Section II are used. The values of ESDD and NSDD in tests of
After bridging of either B1 or B2 , based on condition- this research are nearly 0–0.5 mg/cm2 and 0–6 mm (thickness),
based (27), a modified circuit model according to Fig. 8 should which are considered to be very light, light, medium, high, and
be rebuilt. Then, the following impedance criterion can be very high level, respectively, based on IEC60507. It should be
represented for the new modified model. Finally, if conditions noted that the used surface pollution material is from dust and
of (28) are achieved, it means that the conditions of flashover sand of the south of Iran.
on the surface of the insulator are achieved. In such a situation,
an increase in arcing length (X a ) and getting longer than the
leakage length of insulator (L f ) results in complete discharge
A. LC Versus Testing Duration
on the surface of the insulator. Different stages of the proposed The peak values of LC for the testing duration, simulated
dynamic multi-arcs model are summarized in the flowchart LC based on the proposed model, LC of multi-arcs model,
of Fig. 9 and LC of the single-arc model are shown in Fig. 10. Due
to the large number of time-based LC data, an average value
Rdi = Rsa of the maximum LC is calculated in each ten cycles, according
⎧
⎪ Rd3 R p2
⎪
⎨ X < L − X ; if B1 is bridged
to the following equation. Based on the testing duration
d3 2 4 as 30 min and time of 20 ms period, the total number of
→ (28)
⎪
⎪ R R data is obtained a 9000 [15]
⎩ d2 < p1 ; if B2 is bridged.
X d2 L1 10
I Lpeaki
Ipeakn (n=1:9000) = (29)
10
IV. R ESULTS AND A NALYSIS i=1

To make validation of the proposed model, in the first which I Lpeaki is the maximum instantaneous value of LC.
step, the whole process of the developed multi-arcs model A regression model based on MLS is used to quantify the

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SEZAVAR et al.: IMPROVED DYNAMIC MULTI-ARCS MODELING APPROACH FOR POLLUTION FLASHOVER
Fig. 10. Variation in LC during test. The curves are displayed for the
single-arc model, multi arc model, proposed model, and experimental
values, respectively, from top to bottom.
TABLE I
G EOMETRICAL PARAMETERS OF THE S AMPLE OF VALIDATION T ESTS
TABLE II
C ORRELATION P ERCENTAGE B ETWEEN R EAL T ESTING
D ATA AND S IMULATION M ODELS
correlation performance of all the investigated models with
real testing data according to the following equation:
N
(yi − f (t))2
R 2 = 100% − ∗ 100
i=1
σ2
which f (t), yi , and σ are the real testing data, numerical sim-
ulation data, and variance of data, respectively. The correlation
percentage according to R 2 between real testing data and all
the investigated models is shown in Table II. As can be seen
from the table, the correlation of LC prediction during the
testing time for the proposed model is obtained more than
other models.
B. Critical LC
Critical LC is defined as the maximum LC of the insulator
on the verge of flashover or the corresponding LC when FOV
is recorded. Since the condition of critical LC for testing
the insulator occurs just for once in each test, experiments
are performed for several ESDD and several thickness of
pollution layer as variables of the tests. The results of the
 real
tests and numerical simulations according to ESDD (mg cm2 )
are shown in Fig. 11. As can be seen from the figure, the
results of the proposed multi-arcs model have close correlation
with real testing data. In addition, it can be observed that
for low values of ESDD, the proposed multi-arcs model and
previously presented multi-arcs model have high correlation
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83
Fig. 11. Variation in critical LCs for real testing data and different models
according to ESDD.
Fig. 12. Variation in critical LCs for real testing data and different models
according to the thickness of pollution layer.
with each other. The physical reason for this point can be
explained that because in low-level surface pollution, dynamic
behavior of arcs includes discharge activities in low LCs, and
thus it hardly shows dry band arcing oscillations. Therefore,
(30) discharge resistance is dominantly the same as the resistance
which is represented in multi-arcs modeling of those in [10]
and [13]. However, for high-level pollution, it can be seen
that the correlation of critical LC for the proposed model is
higher than those of common multi-arcs and single-arc. This
obviously shows an improved modeling in the prediction of
critical LC in high-level pollution.
Another important point is the sensitivity of critical LC
according to the thickness of pollution layer. In this matter,
related modeling for the resistance of pollution layer according
to the represented models and real tests can be considered.
The variation in critical LCs for real test and different models
according to the thickness of pollution layer is shown in
Fig. 12. As can be seen from the figure, with the increase
in the thickness of pollution layer, the measurements for
the proposed model, common multi-arcs model, and single-
arc model show higher deviation from real testing data. The
main reason for this matter is the differences between real
resistances of dynamic pollution layer and the simulated
resistances of pollution layer which cause some error in
calculation of numerical simulation according to the variation
in the thickness of pollution layer. Comparison of the results
of numerical modeling and real tests shows that real testing LC
is always lower than the modeling LC which is obvious from
84 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICAL INSULATION, VOL. 29, NO. 1, FEBRUARY 2022

Fig. 13. Correlations between flashover voltages for real testing data Fig. 14. Correlations between flashover voltages for real testing data
and all models according to the variation in ESDD. and all models according to the variation in thickness of pollution layer.

TABLE III
Fig. 12; this is because of the difference between the resistance P ROFILE PARAMETERS OF THE S AMPLES
of pollution layer in real case and numerical modeling. In real
case, the thickness of pollution layer results in a higher
resistance than that of numerical modeling in which as the
thickness of pollution layer increases, its effect also more
remarkably increases. Therefore, real testing LC is lower than
modeling LC. This is obviously demonstrated in Fig. 12 as
the thickness of pollution layer increases.

C. Flashover Voltage (FOV)

According to the flowchart of Fig. 9, the values of FOV
can be estimated with an increase in voltage and existence
of flashover condition on the surface of the insulator. In this
section, real tested polluted insulators are investigated accord-
ing to two parameters of ESDD and thickness of pollution
layer, and then the results would be compared with similar
results of the proposed multi-arcs model, common multi-arcs
model, and single-arc model. Prediction of FOV for the tested
insulator and all the numerical models is shown in Fig. 13.
As can be seen from the figure, as ESDD increases, the
FOV decreases. In other words, the insulator would enter
the flashover stage sooner and under lower voltage. The next
point is the remarkable difference between prediction values
for the proposed multi-arcs model and single-arc model which
reveals the accuracy of the proposed model to predict real FOV.
Also, it can be observed from the figure that the correlation
of the proposed model with real test is closer than that of
the common multi-arcs model especially for higher levels of
surface conductance.
Correlations between FOV for real test and all models
according to the variation in the thickness of pollution layer
are also represented in Fig. 14. As can be seen from the figure,
as the same for the critical LC, the correlations decrease as the
thickness of pollution layer increases because of the variation
in the resistance of pollution layer. However, the proposed
model still has a closer correlation with real testing results
than other modeling methods. The shape and profile of the
insulator can be effective in Rd and R p , and hence, it should
be investigated in the validation of the results. According to
IEC60815, four types of 20-kV silicone insulators are selected
as shown in Table III. The predicted results of FOV of these
insulators are shown in Fig. 15. As can be seen from the figure,
Fig. 15. Predicted results of FOV of tested insulators.
the predicted results of FOV from the proposed model have the
least error due to calculations based on real data of the circuit
model through ANN. Consequently, the predicted results have
the least dependency to the shape and profile of the insulators.
Therefore, it can be concluded that by the use of the proposed
model with ANN, an online monitoring without dependence
on the insulator profile is designed for real-time control of LC
and prediction of critical LC and FOV, and thus prevention of
pollution flashover of the insulator.
V. C ONCLUSION
This article aims to explain different stages of pre-flashover
conditions of real polluted silicone insulators with different
profiles based on a new dynamic multi-arcs approach with the
ANN method. It is shown that the dynamic resistance of sur-
face pollution can be used to analyze dry band activities on the
surface of polluted insulator. Analytical circuit formulations
in each mode as unstable arcing and stable arcing are used
to develop a multi-arcs state space representation of pollution
discharge. Real testing data of voltage and LC of polluted

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SEZAVAR et al.: IMPROVED DYNAMIC MULTI-ARCS MODELING APPROACH FOR POLLUTION FLASHOVER
insulators are used to make correlation with the proposed
analytical circuit-based formulations. In addition, correlations
between the proposed analytical arcing model with the varia-
tion on surface conduction and thickness of pollution layer
are investigated. The entire process of dynamic modeling
analysis is proposed as a flowchart. Validation of the proposed
multi-arcs approach is investigated through comparison with
previously presented works as single-arc model and common
multi-arcs model. It is shown that the proposed model has
a closer correlation with real testing data in comparison to
previous works.
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