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CH 06
CH 06
CH 06
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction
or further distribution permitted without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 6-1
Chapter 6
Discrete Probability Distributions
Chapter Contents
6.1 Discrete Probability Distributions
6.2 Expected Value and Variance
6.3 Uniform Distribution
6.4 Binomial Distribution
6.5 Poisson Distribution
6.6 Hypergeometric Distribution
6.7 Geometric Distribution (Optional)
6.8 Transformations of Random Variables (Optional)
• Lower case letters are used to represent values of the random begin underline end underline
Probability Distributions
• A discrete probability distribution assigns a probability to each value of a
begin underline end underline
Probability Distributions
Probability Distributions
Probability Distributions
Figure 6.1 Random Experiment: Rolling a Die
Total Blank 1
shows the cumulative sum of probabilities, adding from the smallest to the
largest X-value, gradually approaching unity.
Random variables and their distributions are described by their parameters. The
equations for the PDF, the CDF, and the characteristics of the distribution (such as the
mean and standard deviation) will depend on the parameters of the process.
Access the long description slide.
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. 6-13
Chapter 6
6.2 Expected Value and Variance
N
E ( X ) xi P( xi )
i 1
x P(x) xP(x)
0 0.05 0.00
1 0.10 0.10
2 0.30 0.60
3 0.25 0.75
4 0.20 0.80
5 0.10 0.50
( )= =0(.05)+1(.10)+2(.30)+3(.25)+4(.20)+5(.10)=2.75
i 1
• The variance is a weighted average of the dispersion begin underline end underline
and is denoted s.
2 Var( X )
0.30
0.25
The mode is 7
Probability 0.20
rooms rented but
0.15
the average is only
0.10
4.71 room rentals.
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Number of Rooms Rented
Standard deviation 2
b a 1 1
12
a+ b 16
Mean = 3.5
2 2
[(b a) 1]2 1 [(6 1) 1]2 1
Std. Dev. 1.708
12 12
PDF n!
P( X x) x (1 )n x
x !(n x)!
Domain x 0,1,2,..., n
Mean n
Standard deviation n (1 )
Compound Events
• Individual probabilities can be added to obtain any desired
event probability.
• For example, the probability that the sample of four patients
will contain at least two uninsured patients is (Hint: What
begin underline end underline
Compound Events
• What is the probability that fewer than two patients have
begin underline end underline
Binomial Shape
Figure 6.7 Binomial Distributions
x e (1.7)x e 1.7
PDF: P( X x)
x! x!
Mean: 1.7
Standard deviation: 1.7 1.304
Compound Events
• Cumulative probabilities can be evaluated by summing
individual X probabilities.
• What is the probability that two or fewer customers will
arrive in a given minute?
• ( ≤2)= (0) + (1) + P(2)=.1827 + .3106 + .2640 = .7573.
• What is the probability of at least three customers (the
complimentary event)?
• ( ≥3) = 1− ( ≤2) = 1 − .7573 = .2427.
distribution.
• However, unlike the binomial, sampling is without begin underline
n
• Rule of Thumb: If .05, it is safe to use the binomial
N
approximation to the hypergeometric, using sample size
n and success probability s .
N
CDF P ( X x ) 1 (1 )x
Domain x 1,2,....
1
Mean
Standard deviation 1
2
Random data in Excel LN(1-RAND())
1 INT
LN(1- )