install.packages("minpack.

lm")
install.packages("MASS")
install.packages("fitdistrpluss")
install.packages("ggplot2")
install.packages("gridExtra")
library(minpack.lm)
library(MASS)
library(fitdistrplus)
library(ggplot2)
library(gridExtra)

##########Gompertz Q1
xI <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxI <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029,0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100,0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xI, bI, cI) {
bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.1
c_guess <- 0.9
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bI <- params[1]
cI <- params[2]
 predicted_qxI <- gompertz_model(xI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

##########Gompertz Q2
xII <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111) # Usia
qxII <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,

0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028,0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,

0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,

0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,

0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,

0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,

0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334,0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,

0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,

0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,

0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,

0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xII, bII, cII) {
bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.005
c_guess <- 0.995
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bII <- params[1]
cII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- gompertz_model(xII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

##########Makeham Q1
xI <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxI <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029,0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100,0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xI, aI, bI, cI) {
aI + bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.999
b_guess <- 0.00005
c_guess <- 0.00095
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aI <- params[1]
bI <- params[2]
cI <- params[3]
predicted_qxI <- makeham_model(xI, aI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

##########Makeham Q2
xII <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxII <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,

0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028,0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,

0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,

0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,

0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,

0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334,0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,

0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,

0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,

0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,

0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xII, aII, bII, cII) {
aII + bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.000000001
b_guess <- 0.000095
c_guess <- 2.05
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aII <- params[1]
bII <- params[2]
cII <- params[3]
predicted_qxII <- makeham_model(xII, aII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

##########Weibull Q1
xI <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxI <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029,0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100,0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xI, tI, sI) {
tI*xI^sI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.925
s_guess <- 0.075
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tI <- params[1]
sI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- weibull_model(xI, tI, sI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

##########Weibull Q2
xII<- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxII<-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028,0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,
0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,
0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,
0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334,0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,
0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,
0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,
0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,
0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xII, tII, sII) {
tII*xII^sII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.45
s_guess <- 0.55
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tII <- params[1]
sII <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- weibull_model(xII, tII, sII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Formula
#Gompertz untuk Q1
GQ1 <- (0.0004745502)*(1.0698723297^xI) #PASSED
GQ1
#Gompertz untuk Q2
GQ2 <- (6.596181e-05)*(1.089209e+00^xII) #PASSED
GQ2
#Makeham untuk Q1
MQ1 <- 0.00175 + 0.0012775*(1.059530^xI) #CROSS CHECK
MQ1
#Makeham untuk Q2
MQ2 <- 0.002568519 + 0.002525407*(1.0525^xII) #CROSS CHECK
MQ2
#Weibull untuk Q1
WQ1 <- 2.027098e-08*xI^3.660350e+00
WQ1
#Weibull untuk Q2
WQ2 <- 1.175304e-09*xII^4.251225e+00
WQ2

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
y2 <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029,0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100,0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
y2 <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028,0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,
0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,
0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,
0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334,0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,
0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,
0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,
0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,
0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
y1 <- WQ2
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

########## Partisi Interval Q1

##########Gompertz Q1 (0-15)
xI <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
qxI <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xI, bI, cI) {
bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.1
c_guess <- 0.9
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bI <- params[1]
cI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- gompertz_model(xI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Makeham Q1 (0-15)
xI <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
qxI <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xI, aI, bI, cI) {
aI + bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.999
b_guess <- 0.00005
c_guess <- 0.00095
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aI <- params[1]
bI <- params[2]
cI <- params[3]
predicted_qxI <- makeham_model(xI, aI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Weibull Q1 (0-15)
xI <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
qxI <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xI, tI, sI) {
tI*xI^sI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.925
s_guess <- 0.075
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tI <- params[1]
sI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- weibull_model(xI, tI, sI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Model Q1 (0-15)
GQ1 <- (0.00800925)*(0.114558374^xI) #CROSS CHECK
GQ1
MQ1 <- 7.460104e-05 + 6.799170e-03*(4.753807e-01^xI) #CROSS CHECK
MQ1
WQ1 <- 0.0008648764*xI^0.1094930263 #CROSS CHECK
WQ1

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
y2 <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029)
y1 <- WQ1
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

#MSE Model
observed <-
c(0.00802,0.00079,0.00063,0.00051,0.00043,0.00038,0.00034,0.00031,0.00029,0.00028,
0.00027,0.00027,0.00026,0.00026,0.00027,0.00029)
# Data prediksi
predicted1 <- GQ1
predicted2 <- MQ1
predicted3 <- WQ1
# Menghitung Mean Squared Error (MSE)
mse <- mean((observed - predicted3)^2)
# Menampilkan hasil MSE
cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse)

##########Gompertz Q1 (16-65)
xI <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
 31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
qxI <- c(0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xI, bI, cI) {
bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.2
c_guess <- 0.8
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bI <- params[1]
cI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- gompertz_model(xI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Makeham Q1 (16-65)
xI <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
qxI <- c(0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xI, aI, bI, cI) {
aI + bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.025
b_guess <- 0.001
c_guess <- 0.95
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aI <- params[1]
bI <- params[2]
cI <- params[3]
predicted_qxI <- makeham_model(xI, aI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Weibull Q1 (16-65)
xI <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
qxI <- c(0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xI, tI, sI) {
tI*xI^sI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.19
s_guess <- 0.81
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tI <- params[1]
 sI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- weibull_model(xI, tI, sI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Model Q1 (15-65)
GQ1 <- (5.224365e-05)*(1.097348e+00^xI) #CROSS CHECK
GQ1
MQ1 <- -3.357912e-04 + 7.070479e-05*(1.092352e+00^xI) #CROSS CHECK
MQ1
WQ1 <- (9.952907e-10)*xI^(4.011920e+00) #CROSS CHECK
WQ1

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
y2 <- c(0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,
0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,
0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,
0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100)
y1 <- WQ1
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

#MSE Model
observed <- c(0.00003,0.00032,0.00036,0.00041,
0.00049,0.00059,0.00069,0.00077,0.00083,0.00085,0.00083,0.00079,0.00075,0.00074,

0.00076,0.00008,0.00083,0.00084,0.00086,0.00091,0.00099,0.00109,0.00012,0.00135,

0.00153,0.00175,0.00196,0.00219,0.00246,0.00279,0.00318,0.00363,0.00414,0.00471,

0.00538,0.00615,0.00699,0.00784,0.00872,0.00961,0.01051,0.01142,0.01232,0.01322,
0.01417,0.01521,0.01639,0.01773,0.01926,0.02100)
# Data prediksi
predicted1 <- GQ1
predicted2 <- MQ1
predicted3 <- WQ1
# Menghitung Mean Squared Error (MSE)
mse <- mean((observed - predicted1)^2)
# Menampilkan hasil MSE
cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse)

##########Gompertz Q1 (65-111)
xI <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxI <- c(0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xI, bI, cI) {
bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.25
c_guess <- 0.75
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bI <- params[1]
cI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- gompertz_model(xI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Makeham Q1 (65-111)
xI <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxI <- c(0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xI, aI, bI, cI) {
aI + bI * cI^xI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.0015
b_guess <- 0.2985
c_guess <- 0.9
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aI <- params[1]
bI <- params[2]
cI <- params[3]
predicted_qxI <- makeham_model(xI, aI, bI, cI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Weibull Q1 (65-111)
xI <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
 81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxI <- c(0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xI, tI, sI) {
tI*xI^sI
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.05
s_guess <- 9.95
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tI <- params[1]
sI <- params[2]
predicted_qxI <- weibull_model(xI, tI, sI)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxI - qxI)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Model Q1 (65-111)
GQ1 <- (0.0005213631 )*(1.0689171127^xI) #CROSS CHECK
GQ1
MQ1 <- -0.40857367 + 0.06802709*(1.02562921^xI) #CROSS CHECK
MQ1
WQ1 <- (3.219871e-08)*xI^(3.554076e+00) #CROSS CHECK
WQ1

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
y2 <- c(0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,
0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,
 0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,
0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,
0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
y1 <- WQ1
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

#MSE Model
observed <- c(0.02288,0.02486,0.02702,0.02921,

0.03182,0.03473,0.03861,0.04264,0.04687,0.05155,0.05664,0.06254,0.06942,0.07734,

0.08597,0.09577,0.10593,0.11683,0.12888,0.14241,0.15738,0.17368,0.19110,0.20945,

0.22853,0.24638,0.26496,0.28450,0.30511,0.32682,0.34662,0.36770,0.39016,0.41413,

0.43974,0.45994,0.48143,0.50431,0.52864,0.55450,0.58198,0.61119,0.64222,0.67518,
0.71016,1.00000)
# Data prediksi
predicted1 <- GQ1
predicted2 <- MQ1
predicted3 <- WQ1
# Menghitung Mean Squared Error (MSE)
mse <- mean((observed - predicted3)^2)
# Menampilkan hasil MSE
cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse)

########## Partisi Interval Q2

##########Gompertz Q2 (0-15)
xII <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
qxII <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xII, bII, cII) {
bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.2
c_guess <- 0.8
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bII <- params[1]
cII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- gompertz_model(xII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Makeham Q2 (0-15)
xII <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
qxII <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028)

# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xII, aII, bII, cII) {
aII + bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.00001
b_guess <- 0.05
c_guess <- 1.0
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aII <- params[1]
bII <- params[2]
cII <- params[3]
predicted_qxII <- makeham_model(xII, aII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Weibull Q2 (0-15)
xII <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
qxII <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xII, tII, sII) {
tII*xII^sII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.92
s_guess <- 0.08
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tII <- params[1]
sII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- weibull_model(xII, tII, sII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Model Q2 (0-15)
GQ2 <- (0.0003713535)*(0.9569999084^xII) #CROSS CHECK
GQ2
MQ2 <- 0.0009496811 - 0.0005833527*(1.0171345000^xII) #CROSS CHECK
MQ2
WQ2 <- 0.0008602014*xII^0.1089011721 #CROSS CHECK
WQ2

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,
11,12,13,14,15)
y2 <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028)
y1 <- WQ2
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

#MSE Model
observed <-
c(0.00037,0.00056,0.00042,0.00033,0.00028,0.00027,0.00003,0.00031,0.00003,0.00028,
0.00025,0.00024,0.00026,0.00028,0.00029,0.00028)
# Data prediksi
predicted1 <- GQ2
predicted2 <- MQ2
predicted3 <- WQ2
# Menghitung Mean Squared Error (MSE)
mse <- mean((observed - predicted1)^2)
# Menampilkan hasil MSE
cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse)

##########Gompertz Q2 (16-65)
xII <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
qxII <- c(0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,

0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,

0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,

0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,
0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xII, bII, cII) {
bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.1
c_guess <- 0.9
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bII <- params[1]
cII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- gompertz_model(xII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Makeham Q2 (16-65)
xII <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
qxII <- c(0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,

0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,

0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,

0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,
0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xII, aII, bII, cII) {
aII + bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.000001
b_guess <- 0.0025
c_guess <- 1.0005
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aII <- params[1]
bII <- params[2]
cII <- params[3]
 predicted_qxII <- makeham_model(xII, aII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Weibull Q2 (16-65)
xII <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
qxII <- c(0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,

0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,

0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,

0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,
0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xII, tII, sII) {
tII*xII^sII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.001
s_guess <- 2.999
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tII <- params[1]
sII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- weibull_model(xII, tII, sII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Model Q2 (15-65)
GQ2 <- (3.679918e-05)*(1.095241e+00^xII) #CROSS CHECK
GQ2
MQ2 <- -1.536990e-04 + 4.629979e-05*(1.091455e+00^xII) #CROSS CHECK
MQ2
WQ2 <- (1.610821e-09)*xII^(3.780328e+00) #CROSS CHECK
WQ2

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(16,17,18,19,20,
21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,
51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,
61,62,63,64,65)
y2 <- c(0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,
0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,
0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,
0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607, 0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334)
y1 <- WQ2
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

#MSE Model
observed <- c(0.00025,0.00024,0.00023,0.00024,

0.00026,0.00029,0.00033,0.00037,0.00039,0.00042,0.00044,0.00046,0.00048,0.00051,

0.00054,0.00057,0.00006,0.00062,0.00064,0.00067,0.00074,0.00084,0.00093,0.00104,

0.00114,0.00126,0.00141,0.00158,0.00175,0.00193,0.00214,0.00239,0.00268,0.00299,
0.00334,0.00374,0.00422,0.00479,0.00542,0.00607,
0.00669,0.00725,0.00776,0.00826,
 0.00877,0.00936,0.01004,0.01104,0.01214,0.01334)
# Data prediksi
predicted1 <- GQ2
predicted2 <- MQ2
predicted3 <- WQ2
# Menghitung Mean Squared Error (MSE)
mse <- mean((observed - predicted1)^2)
# Menampilkan hasil MSE
cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse)

##########Gompertz Q2 (65-111)
xII <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxII <- c(0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,

0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,

0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,

0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,

0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Model Gompertz
gompertz_model <- function(xII, bII, cII) {
bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
b_guess <- 0.1
c_guess <- 0.9
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
bII <- params[1]
cII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- gompertz_model(xII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)
#########Makeham Q2 (65-111)
xII <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxII <- c(0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,

0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,

0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,

0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,

0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Model Makeham
makeham_model <- function(xII, aII, bII, cII) {
aII + bII * cII^xII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
a_guess <- 0.05
b_guess <- 0.00001
c_guess <- 1.0005
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
aII <- params[1]
bII <- params[2]
cII <- params[3]
predicted_qxII <- makeham_model(xII, aII, bII, cII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(a_guess, b_guess, c_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#########Weibull Q2 (65-111)
xII <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
 91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
qxII <- c(0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,

0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,

0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,

0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,

0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Model Weibull
weibull_model <- function(xII, tII, sII) {
tII*xII^sII
}
# Tebakan awal parameter
t_guess <- 0.001
s_guess <- 1.999
# Fungsi least square
ls_function <- function(params) {
tII <- params[1]
sII <- params[2]
predicted_qxII <- weibull_model(xII, tII, sII)
sum_residuals <- sum((predicted_qxII - qxII)^2)
return(sum_residuals)
}
# Optimisasi parameter menggunakan optim()
optim_result <- optim(c(t_guess, t_guess), ls_function)
# Parameter yang diestimasi
estimated_params <- optim_result$par
print("Estimated Parameters:")
print(estimated_params)

#Model Q2 (65-111)
GQ2 <- (6.674761e-05)*(1.089088e+00^xII) #CROSS CHECK
GQ2
MQ2 <- 1.738378e-02 + 2.171957e-05*(1.100212e+00^xII) #CROSS CHECK
MQ2
WQ2 <- (3.536591e-08)*xII^(3.518985e+00) #CROSS CHECK
WQ2

#Menampilkan Plot
x <- c(66,67,68,69,70,
71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,
 91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,100,
101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,110,111)
y2 <- c(0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,
0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,
0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,
0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,
0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
y1 <- WQ2
data <- data.frame(x = x, y1 = y1, y2 = y2)
# Membuat plot menggunakan ggplot2
ggplot(data, aes(x = x)) +
geom_line(aes(y = y1, color = "Y1"), size = 1) +
geom_line(aes(y = y2, color = "Y2"), size = 1, linetype = "dashed") +
labs(title = "Plot Model dan TMI", x = "X", y = "Y") +
theme_minimal() +
scale_color_manual(values = c("Y1" = "black", "Y2" = "red")) +
theme(legend.position = "top")

#MSE Model
observed <- c(0.01466,0.01612,0.01771,0.01947,

0.02121,0.02319,0.02539,0.02778,0.03042,0.03330,0.03646,0.03991,0.04372,0.04789,

0.05247,0.05877,0.06579,0.07284,0.08061,0.08925,0.09713,0.10893,0.12131,0.13450,

0.14645,0.15243,0.16454,0.18235,0.20488,0.23305,0.25962,0.28720,0.29173,0.30759,

0.33241,0.40956,0.43507,0.46278,0.49285,0.52515,0.55876,0.59373,0.62974,0.66757,
0.70691,1.00000)
# Data prediksi
predicted1 <- GQ2
predicted2 <- MQ2
predicted3 <- WQ2
# Menghitung Mean Squared Error (MSE)
mse <- mean((observed - predicted1)^2)
# Menampilkan hasil MSE
cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse)