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ANTHROPOCENE
AFRICA
Out of Every Crisis, an Opportunity

1040L

BY DAVID BAKER, ADAPTED BY NEWSELA

Africa’s recent history has been troubled. The continent still

faces many serious challenges in the twenty-first century. Still,
from a Big History perspective, Africa has huge potential in the
coming centuries to play an important role in global collective
learning and the rise of complexity.
For most of our history, sub-Saharan Africa has been the site of rising human com- tion until the twentieth century.
plexity. Our species — Homo sapiens — evolved in Africa about 200,000 years ago.
Africa’s population and web of collective learning was larger than ever before. Still,
About 64,000 years ago, humans began the mass migration to the rest of the world.
the environments of the region could not always support 100 million people with tradi-
Africa remained well suited for small, closely knit foraging communities for thousands tional agriculture. Mass famines became more common, with not enough food to go
of years. Then, around 3000 BCE, West Africa developed agriculture. In the past 2,000 around. Warfare also broke out between emerging states.
years, sub-Saharan Africa has been the site of some of the mightiest states and em-
The slave trade practiced by European and Islamic traders continued to reduce Africa’s
pires of the ancient world.
population. As a result, the population of sub-Saharan Africa hovered between 90 mil-
In comparison, the past 500 years have been a painful time in Africa’s history. As the lion and 95 million between 1700 and 1900.
world zones crashed together, the slave trade and colonization damaged the continent.
Africa’s population did not grow far beyond 100 million until the mid-1900s, when the
Sub-Saharan Africa fell behind other parts of the world in industrial complexity and
Green Revolution introduced genetically modified crops (GMOs) to the continent.
economic success.
Toward the end of the twentieth century, famines in Africa were common, most nota-
The Anthropocene era offers an opportunity for Africa. The continent has a chance to
bly in Ethiopia. The standard of living for most Africans remained low.
play a central role in the developments in complexity of the future.
However, by the year 2000, the population of sub-Saharan Africa had grown to 659
POPULATION & COLLECTIVE LEARNING
million. This is an astonishing increase of population in just 100 years. It is the fastest
Sub-Saharan Africa has always had great potential for collective learning. The two population growth ever seen on the African continent.
main drivers of collective learning are population numbers and connectivity. More
people means more potential innovators to think up new ideas and increase the chanc-
es of a breakthrough. Connectivity allows good ideas to be shared (and combined)
across societies and regions.

It was agriculture spread by Bantu farmers that allowed the population of sub-Saharan
Africa to surge. There were 7 million people in sub-Saharan Africa in 500 BCE. By
500 CE, there were 20 million.

At this time, a larger population of potential innovators was good news for collective
learning. Agrarian villages were changing into cities and states. These states needed
engineers, scribes, rulers, and other specialists. In the first millennium, the indepen-
dent states of East and West Africa were at their height. Other large settlements, con-
federations of villages, and alliances of tribal kings started to form on the central and
southern part of the continent as well.

In the next thousand years, states began to form in every region of Africa. People de-
pended more and more on agriculture. The African population continued to grow more
dramatically than ever before. Lands that previously supported small groups of no-
madic foragers were turned into farms. Populations continued to grow, reaching an
estimated 100 million in 1600. This was the high point of sub-Saharan African popula-
Combine harvester working field, Western Cape, South Africa.

BIG HISTORY PROJECT ANTHROPOCENE AFRICA / 1040L 2

Only 15 years later, that population is closer to 800 million. By 2050, it is estimated However, a Big History perspective gives us a view different from that of economists
that sub-Saharan Africa will have a population of 1.5 billion. Past 2100, the U.N. esti- and demographers. Over the next several centuries, an Africa with a large population
mates the population of Africa alone could approach 3 billion people. of potential innovators is a positive thing.

POPULATION SLOWDOWN A large continent with a diverse population of a few billion people is a great thing for
collective learning and rising human complexity. As humanity continues to make tech-
The reason for this huge population growth is that Africa’s birth rates remain quite
nological and scientific advancements, Africa will have the chance to make large con-
high. In other parts of the world, population growth is gradually slowing down.
tributions.
In the 1970s and 1980s, there were fears that the population would continue to grow
The immediate challenges are to: raise the standard of living for most Africans, create
until some sort of disaster struck. But in the 1990s and 2000s, it became clear that
access to education and career opportunities, and prevent overpopulation.
populations in developed regions like North America and Europe were slowing down
in growth or even shrinking. The best way to achieve these goals is to help African states develop their economies.
As the recent history of Europe, America, and East Asia shows: as an economy devel-
Even in developing nations like India and China, population growth is slowing down.
ops, the standard of living increases. Also, the birth rate decreases.
Population levels in those places appear to be stabilizing. There are still many dangers
of overpopulation, but this slowdown is good news for humanity’s future. In 100 or 200 years, it’s possible that an Africa with a huge population will play a cen-
tral role in the web of collective knowledge. The continent may also offer a decent
This slowdown of population growth is not just due to the availability of birth control.
quality of life to its people. Sub-Saharan Africa has the chance to revive the roles it
When a country develops an industrial economy, there are more opportunities for ca-
played in the first millennium when it was the site of the wealthy and powerful civili-
reers and different lifestyles. In this type of society, children are more expensive to
raise. They spend more years at school, which costs money. More people decide to
have just one or two children, or no children at all.

The success of industry has become the most successful and reliable form of popula-
tion control in human history.

Compare this to an agricultural society. Living a farming life, children are less expen-
sive to educate. They can begin helping out on the farm while still young. In an agri-
cultural society, children will look after their families when their parents and grand-
parents grow old. Here, it makes sense to have many children.

The problem is that regions in Africa that encourage large families are often the same
regions struggling to deal with overpopulation.

Therefore, it is extremely important that African countries encourage the development

of their economies. This development can begin the slowdown of population growth
that appears to have taken hold elsewhere in the world.

WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR ANTHROPOCENE AFRICA

When we talk about Africa’s prospects in the twenty-first century and beyond, it’s easy
to be pessimistic. Africa faces serious challenges and many problems. Graduation of teachers from rural communities in the Northern Province of Sierra Leone.

BIG HISTORY PROJECT ANTHROPOCENE AFRICA / 1040L 3

zations of Ghana and Aksum.
The question is how to get there. The primary goals for sub-Saharan Africa in the An-
thropocene are to 1) industrialize in an environmentally sustainable way and 2) lower
birth rates while continuing to raise standards of living.
Industrialization played an important role in the development of European economies
in the nineteenth century and of Asian economies in the twentieth century. In recent
decades, African economies that have developed industry have done the best. Coun-
tries like South Africa have made major progress.
On the other hand, African economies still depending on agriculture have the lowest
growth rates and some of the lowest standards of living. Countries like Sierra Leone,
Zimbabwe, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have learned this in recent years.
It helps to have natural resources or fossil fuels to sell, but this is not sustainable. In
any case, not all African countries have this option. Natural resources have benefited
the people of Nigeria, and also smaller countries like Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and
Angola.
Automated automobile assembly line in Durban, South Africa.
BIG HISTORY PROJECT ANTHROPOCENE AFRICA / 1040L
Still, over decades and centuries, these resources will dry up (or the world will turn to
more renewable resources). There needs to be a more permanent economy for a
country to fall back on. The best hope for African economies is to continue developing
industry and technology.
Having a large population is no longer the major benefit that it was in the agrarian era.
The most populous countries in sub-Saharan Africa are Nigeria (by far), Ethiopia, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa. Two of those countries – Ethiopia
and the Democratic Republic of Congo – have underdeveloped economies and the
well-being of people there is low.
Both countries depend on non-industrial forms of commerce, like agriculture. Nigeria
has nearly 25 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s population but gains a lot of its Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) from its many natural resources, rather than manufacturing.
Huge amounts of wealth flow through the country, but the money rarely reaches the
average Nigerian, who does not enter Africa’s top 10 in terms of income. There is still
a lot of work to do with human development efforts in Nigeria.
Meanwhile, smaller countries like Gabon and Botswana have high average incomes
and human development scores. These countries must continue to invest in manufac-
turing to ensure success in the future.
To become a prosperous economic powerhouse in the Anthropocene, you need to
have both a sizable population and strong manufacturing and technology sectors. In
previous decades, East Asian countries like Japan, China, and Korea learned this les-
son to their benefit. Africa holds the potential to follow in their footsteps in the next
century.
Runaway population growth threatens sub-Saharan Africa. The development of stable
and successful economies on the continent is key to controlling that growth. Better
economies mean more opportunities in education and careers, a rising standard of
living, and an incentive to have fewer children. These factors will help prevent an
overpopulation disaster.
Stronger economies in Africa will allow the continent to take a leading role in the glob-
al network of collective learning in the twenty-first century. From a Big History per-
spective, this will be a major issue in the next few centuries of the Anthropocene.
Today, sub-Saharan Africa makes up 12 to 15 percent of the total global population. It’s
estimated that by 2100, it may make up 30 percent or more. This is a lot of people – a
lot of potential innovators – who can contribute to human collective learning in the
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next few centuries, helping to create whatever transformations await us.

If sub-Saharan Africa sinks into population crisis or economic disaster, the shock
waves of such a catastrophe would be felt around the globe.

We have seen 13.8 billion years of rising complexity. Still, we must not take it for
granted. Many human societies have collapsed, millions of species have gone extinct,
and vast areas of the cosmos remain cold and lifeless.

The rise of complexity is never guaranteed. The fate of human complexity in the next
few centuries may very well depend on the fate of Africa.

BIG HISTORY PROJECT ANTHROPOCENE AFRICA / 1040L 5

Sources
J.R. Biraben, “Essai sur l’evolution du
nombre des hommes” Population 34
(1979)
David Conrad, Empires of Medieval West
Africa: Ghana, Mali, Songhay, (New York:
Facts on File, 2005)
Christopher Ehret, The Civilizations of
Africa: A history to 1800, (Oxford:
James Currey Publishers, 2002)
David Eltis, The Rise of African Slavery
in the Americas, (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2000)
Patrick Gerland, et al., “World Popula-
tion Stabilization Unlikely This Century”
Science vol. 346, no. 6206, 234-237.
George Hatke, Aksum and Nubia: War-
fare, Commerce, and Political Fictions in
Ancient Northeast Africa, (New York:
New York University Press, 2013)
International Monetary Fund, Regional
Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa,
staying the course, (Washington: Interna-
tional Monetary Fund, 2014)
David Phillipson, Ancient Ethiopia, Ak-
sum: Its Antecedents and Successors,
(London: British Museum Press, 1998)
United Nations Economic Report on
Africa, Dynamic Industrial Policy in Af-
rica, (Addis Ababa: Economic Commis-
sion for Africa, 2014)
BIG HISTORY PROJECT
Cover image: The Nelson Mandela
Bridge connects the Braamfontein and
Newtown areas of Johannesburg, South
Africa. © Blaine Harrington III/Corbis.
Image of combine harvester working
field, Western Cape, South Africa. ©
Richard Du Toit/Minden Pictures/Cor-
bis.
Image of graduation of teachers from
rural communities in the Northern
Province of Sierra Leone. They trained
at a local college for three months to
become certified and eligible to be paid
by the state. There are 110 people who
trained in this program. Chiefdom of
WW. Yagala. © Karen Kasmauski/Corbis.
Image of automated automobile assem-
bly line in Durban, South Africa. ©
Charles O’Rear/Corbis.
ANTHROPOCENE AFRICA / 1040L
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