Mansoura University

Faculty of Sciences
Department of Statistics and Computer Science

Data Analysis project on:

Impact of Tornado on Global Economy

Name: Mariam Ahmed Elkhamisy

Naira Mahmoud Abdelhalim
Elham Abdelfattah Hir
Kholod Mohamed Ezzat
Mona Elaraby Mohamed

Dr. Rabab Sabry gomaa

 Chapter 1
Introduction to Tornado
1.1 What is a Tornado
Tornadoes are extremely strong storms that can reach speeds of up to
300 miles per hour. It looks like a funnel-shaped cloud that spreads from
the thunderstorm's base to the ground, ranging in color from gray to
black. A tornado might sound like the roar of a locomotive or airplane and
spin like a top. They may go in an unpredictable direction or change it
abruptly. Among all weather events, these brief storms are the most
ferocious and devastating across a limited area.

Figure1.1: Tornado

When wind shear and instability combine with other ideal atmospheric
conditions, intense thunderstorms are usually the place where tornadoes
form. A visible funnel cloud is produced as the spinning column of air
starts to descend from the storm cloud and strikes the ground.
High winds are the primary cause of a tornado's destructive force. It poses
a serious risk to people and property since it can uproot trees, destroy

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 buildings, and launch debris skyward. There is a wide range of sizes for
tornadoes: some are quite small, while others can reach a diameter of
several miles. Tornadoes are often classified using the Enhanced Fujita
(EF) scale according to their projected wind speeds and potential for
destruction.
Tornadoes occur in various parts of the world, but they are most
frequently observed in the central United States, known as Tornado Alley.
However, they can occur in many other regions, including Europe, Asia,
Australia, and South America.
It's important to remember that tornadoes are dangerous natural
phenomena and that, to stay safe during severe weather events, you
should heed the advice and warnings given by meteorological authorities.
Tornadoes Take Many Shapes and Sizes
• Weak Tornadoes
88% of all tornadoes Less than 5% of tornado deaths Lifetime 1 - 10+
minutes Winds less than 110 mph
• Strong Tornadoes
11% of all tornadoes Nearly 30% of all tornado deaths May last 20 minutes
or longer Winds 110-205 mph
• Violent Tornadoes
Less than 1% of all tornadoes 70% of all tornado deaths Lifetime can exceed
1-hour Winds greater than 205 mph

Figure1.2: Weak Tornadoes Figure1.3: Strong Tornadoes Figure1.4: Violent Tornadoes

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1.2 How Does It From
• Stage 1 - Storm development
The air close to ground level warms as a result of the ground being
warmed by sunshine. Particularized air pockets warm up and start to
rise above their surroundings. Shallow cumulus clouds form where
these heated air bubbles, known as thermals, ascend to a significant
height.
Warm bubbles may rise to much higher altitudes if the surrounding
atmosphere experiences a rapid decrease in temperature with height,
known as an unstable atmosphere. This would lead to the formation of
deeper and stronger ascending air currents or updraughts, and the
corresponding deep cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds, also known as
thunder clouds.
• Stage 2 - Storm organization
The thunderstorm updraught may start to rotate when the
aforementioned process takes place in an environment where winds
strongly increase with height (high vertical wind shear).
This occurs as a result of the atmosphere spinning horizontally due to
high wind shear.
A powerful updraft causes this rolling motion to tilt vertically, spinning
the object along a vertical axis in a manner similar to a merry-go-
round's rotation.
'Supercells' are thunderstorms that rotate deeply and persistently.

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• Stage 3 - Tornado formation
Concentration and lowering of the rotation are aided by downdraughts,
which are descending currents of relatively cold, dense air within the
supercell storm.
It's possible for the rotation to eventually become so intensely
concentrated that a slender column of rapidly spinning air arises. A
tornado is created if this rapidly spinning column of air touches the
ground.
The presence of a condensation funnel, a funnel-shaped cloud formed
by the significantly lower pressure inside the tornado vortex, makes the
tornado visible most of the time.
The tornado's visibility may also be aided by dust and other material
that the strong winds raise.

Figure1.5: Tornado formation

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 • Stage 4 - Tornado dissipation
Cold downdraughts eventually wrap around the tornado, cutting off the
supply of warm air. The tornado typically narrows during this stage, and
eventually, the vortex dissipates.

Figure1.5: Tornado dissipation

1.3 Tornado Dangers

When tornadoes strike, people flee for their lives. When the storm
approaches, they listen while hiding in basements or crouching in
bathtubs. The house trembles with scary rumbles, and survivors have
claimed hearing loud bangs against the roof. They hear trees falling to the
ground, glass breaking, and, as one survivor remembered, a strange
moaning sound when his house buckled under the wind's fury.

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1) Strong Winds: The most potent storms can
have winds exceeding 200 miles per hour (320
kilometers per hour), which is what defines a
tornado. These winds have the power to uproot
trees, destroy structures, and transform
commonplace items into lethal projectiles.

Figure1.6: Strong Winds

2) Structural Damage: Homes, businesses, and infrastructure are all

susceptible to extensive structural damage from tornadoes. Complete
building destruction or leaving them uninhabitable might result in
property loss and displacement.
3) Injuries and Fatalities: Serious injuries and fatalities can occur for
anybody caught in a tornado's path due to the mix of flying debris,
powerful winds, and falling structures. When a tornado warning is
issued, it is imperative that you take cover in a strong, inside area far
from windows to reduce the chance of being hurt or killed.
4) Secondary Hazards: In addition to causing fires, gas leaks, and downed
power lines, tornadoes can also cause secondary hazards. After a
tornado strikes, these dangers may increase the risk to property and
human life.
5) Flying Debris: Tornadoes can pick up debris such as branches, vehicles,
and even entire buildings, hurling them through the air at high speeds.
This flying debris can cause extensive damage to structures and pose a
significant threat to anyone caught in its path.
6) Emotional Trauma: Experiencing a tornado and its aftermath can be
extremely traumatic for individuals and communities. The loss of
homes, possessions, and even loved ones can have long-lasting
psychological effects on survivors.
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7) Tornado-Induced Winds: The strong winds associated with tornadoes
can create additional hazards. They can topple vehicles, overturn large
objects, and uproot trees, leading to further damage and potential
injury or loss of life.
8) Tornado Outbreaks: Individual or cluster tornadoes are referred to as
tornado outbreaks. Tornado outbreaks occur when several tornadoes
originate across a larger area and in a comparatively short amount of
time. These occurrences have the potential to be especially
catastrophic, raising the risk to impacted communities and causing
extensive damage.
9) Pollution
In addition to uprooting trees and rolling cars, tornadoes can also
cause pollution in the surrounding area. This happens because of the
large amount of dust that they carry in from arid regions, the flying
debris that they bring down from buildings, etc.
Lung function is impacted by dust, which also raises the risk of lung
cancer. Consequently, it results in persistent abnormalities of the
respiratory system and cardiac issues.
Tornadoes also lessen the amount of fluid that leaks from cars to trash,
which pollutes the soil and water and increases environmental
degradation.
10) Environmental contamination
A powerful tornado can break chemical
containers; and destroy pipelines, which results
in the contamination of groundwater with oil,
asbestos, dioxides, raw sewage, and other
poisonous pollutants.
Other wastes such as industrial wastes and
medical wastes are also released into the
Figure1.7: Environmental
contamination

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 environment, thereby, causing environmental contamination. Powerful
thunderstorms on various occasions generate flooding and when
combined with tornadoes contaminate the water and soils. This can
result in long-term hazards to the environment.
11) Loss of life
Tornadoes rank as one of the most deadly weather patterns in the
world. The death tolls from tornadoes vary considerably from a year to
another. In the United States, since 2000, the death figures have
ranged from 21 in 2009 to 553 this season. This is an average of 94
deaths yearly during that period.
The increase in death toll this year was partly because of the 2011
tornado super outbreak, where about 748 tornadoes happened in April
alone, accompanied by a shocking tornado strike in Missouri, in May.
The Super Outbreak in April 2011 surpassed the renowned 1974
tornado season when a weather system produced about 147
tornadoes in mere 24 hours.
The tornadoes’ violent nature can lead to loss of life and cause severe
injuries. Statistically, in the whole world, tornadoes cause more than
1,500 injuries yearly. And averagely, about 100 people do lose their
lives each year as a result of this devastating disaster.
These figures show that tornadoes are a severe incident. The tornado
that happens in the evening or at night is likely to be the deadliest
because those who have gone to bed do not get to receive the tornado
warning on time.
12) Household Hazardous Waste
There is an immediate impact from hazardous domestic garbage, such
as cleaning supplies, automotive goods, and workshop supplies, after
tornadoes destroy homes.

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 These materials are made visible by the damage, posing a risk to the
city's vegetation and fauna. Furthermore, they pollute the water and
soil, creating a poisonous environment.
13) Economic loss
When a tornado passes through a city, a lot of property is destroyed,
which has a significant negative economic impact and also indirectly
affects the environment. For instance, the Moore tornado in Oklahoma
in 1999 resulted in damage estimated at $1.1 billion. A $3 billion worth
of properties were damaged in 2011 by the tornado that struck Joplin,
Missouri.
Going back to 1950 signifies that the damage caused by tornadoes
yearly ranges from as low as $100 – $200 million to as high as $7 – $8
billion. This variability comes from the random nature of tornado
strikes; the chances are low that a tornado will hit any urban area in a
year. But when tornadoes do hit the cities, they result in a great
amount of damage.
14) Forest Fires
Fires from Alaska and the western United States are started by
lightning strikes that occur before, during, or after the disaster. Fires in
parklands and forests are devastating for plants and animals in that
area. It destroys their natural habitat, which can take many years to
recover.
15) Psychological effects
According to an American Psychological Association study, tornadoes
can cause long-term mental health issues. Tornadoes have the power
to bring back painful memories in which the victim relives the incident
and is overcome with deep sadness, withdrawal, anxiety, and intense
fear of dying and losing everything.

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1.4 Economic Impact of Tornado
Tornadoes can have significant economic impacts on affected areas.
Numerous variables, including the tornado's size and severity, the
impacted area's location and population density, the time of day it strikes,
and the community's readiness and resilience, all affect how much of an
impact is felt. Tornadoes can have the following effects on the economy:
• Business Interruption: Businesses that are impacted by tornadoes
may lose money as a result of their operations being disrupted.
Businesses may have to close temporarily or permanently as a
result of damage to their inventory, equipment, and commercial
buildings. The local economy may be impacted by this in a number
of ways, such as lower consumer spending, tax income, and
layoffs.
• Infrastructure Costs: Local governments and utility companies may
have to pay a large amount of money to rebuild damaged roads,
bridges, and electricity lines. For the impacted area to recover and
function, key infrastructure must be repaired and restored.
• Property Damage and Destruction: Tornadoes can cause extensive
damage to buildings, infrastructure, and personal property.
Homes, businesses, and public infrastructure such as schools and
hospitals may be destroyed or severely damaged, resulting in
significant financial losses. Rebuilding and repairing damaged
structures can be costly and time-consuming.
• Tourism and Local Businesses: In affected areas, tornadoes may
have an effect on the tourism sector. Damage to lodging
establishments, recreational centers, and tourist sites may
discourage travelers and lower tourism-related income. Local
companies that depend on tourists can also see a drop in income
and sales.

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 • Insurance Costs: Tornadoes prompt significant insurance claims for
property damage and loss. Insurance companies may face
substantial payouts, leading to increased premiums for
policyholders in the affected areas. Insurance costs can also rise
more broadly across regions prone to tornadoes as companies
adjust their risk assessments.
With over 8,000 buildings destroyed, 161 fatalities, and over 1,000
injuries from three-second wind gusts at over 200 mph, the damage
caused by the tornado that tore through Joplin, Missouri, in May 2011
was not only the deadliest on record in US history, but it was also the
most expensive. The tornado cost $2.8 billion.
It is important to consider the potential effects of tornadoes on the
economy, given that the two most expensive tornadoes occurred in
Tuscaloosa, Alabama, at a cost of $2.45 billion, and the third-most
expensive tornado occurred in Moore, Oklahoma, at a cost of $2.0 billion.
All three tornadoes occurred in a period of less than two years.
Direct and Indirect Losses
The impact of a tornado results in both direct and indirect losses to the
local economy. Direct losses result from the destruction of assets from
the initial impact of the tornado and include the loss of human lives,
roads, power, phone lines, crops, factories, homes, and natural resources.
Just after the disaster, USA Today estimated that the Joplin tornado had
caused damage to at least a quarter of the city. To calculate the cost of
direct losses, one must either sum up the total value of the decrease in
the value of the lost assets or sum up the total of the lost income that the
lost assets generated.
Indirect losses that occur from the destruction of physical assets can be
quite significant. These losses include lost production and sales, incomes
and labor time, increased commute times, increased transportation costs
from goods having to be rerouted, decreased tourist activity, and ongoing

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 utility disruptions. The decreased economic activity also results in lost
taxable receipts and uses federal disaster relief funds to help clean up,
repair, and replace lost assets.
As in 2011, when a band of tornado activity raced through the southern
United States, affecting refineries, regional gas prices rose as a result of
lost production and the ensuing shortages.
Moreover, increasing tornado activity may result in permanent increases
in insurance premiums or a reduction in coverage, even though insurance
companies typically don't raise rates in response to a single disaster.
1.5 Safety Tips
To stay safe during a tornado, prepare a plan and an emergency kit, stay
aware of weather conditions during thunderstorms, know the best places
to shelter both indoors and outdoors, and always protect yourself from
injury, especially your head.

Figure1.8: Tornado Safety Tips

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Tornado Safety Tips
• Pay attention to warnings
The most important bit of advice for tornado safety is to remain
vigilant whenever severe weather approaches your region. This entails
keeping an eye on weather forecasts, being vigilant during tornado
watches, and running for cover as soon as a tornado warning is issued.
Remember, too, that there’s a difference between a tornado watch
and a tornado warning:
▪ When there are severe weather conditions in your region that have
the potential to produce a tornado, the National Weather Service
issues a tornado watch.
▪ A tornado warning is a notification that is sent out when weather
radar detects or spots a tornado. Anyone in the vicinity needs to get
cover right away.

Whether your area is under a tornado watch, tornado warning, or

neither, being aware of the signs that a tornado is headed your way is
key to keeping safe. Signs to look for include:
▪ A change in the color of the sky
▪ A cloud of debris or debris falling from the sky
▪ A loud sound, similar to that of a freight train
▪ A strange quiet during or immediately following a thunderstorm
• Move to the basement quickly
Although there is never a completely safe place to be during a tornado,
underground spaces like basements give you the best defense. If you
don't have a basement, your best option is to use a room on the lowest
floor of your house—ideally, a windowless interior space like a closet,
bathroom, or middle corridor. Additionally, you should refrain from
seeking cover when there are bulky items, such as appliances, on the
floor above you.

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 In a high rise, reaching the lowest floor is also the best option. That
might not be feasible, though, since a tornado warning often has only
nine minutes' notice. The next thing you should do is look for your
apartment's safest room. Once more, this might be an inside closet,
bathroom, or middle hallway.
• Crouch low to the ground
Once you have located a safe place to take cover, cover your head with
your hands while lying face down on the ground to shield yourself from
falling debris. Additionally, you might wish to curl up with thick
cushions and blankets. Even winter clothing can keep you warm after
the storm passes and serve as a cushion if something falls on you. Steer
clear of lying close to anything unstable or heavy that could fall on you.
• Get under something sturdy
You need to be prepared for the building to collapse. While you don’t
want to be next to heavy objects that might fall on you, being under
something sturdy like a heavy table, workbench, or desk. This can
create a pocket of safety for you if the entire room collapses.
• Monitor storm alerts
There are several ways to get updates on whether tornadoes continue
to pose a danger in your area. Your local news will post updates, as will
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) via its
network of radio stations. If you haven’t already, you can also sign up
for community alerts on your mobile phone. Try to have one of these
handy so you know when you can safely go back outside.
• Do not stay in a mobile home
In a tornado, mobile homes are especially vulnerable to destruction.
Residents of many mobile home communities have access to storm
shelters. If yours doesn't, or if you reside on private property, you
might have to look for another shelter—ideally one that has a structure

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 with a foundation. If a tornado is headed your way, you'll need to go
quickly, so find some nearby options today.
• Go inside
Being outside increases your risk of getting struck by flying debris or
carried away by tornado winds. You are looking for a structure to take
cover in. Select a structure with a basement if at all possible, as this will
protect you from falling objects and collapse.
If there isn't enough time to go to a safe shelter or one isn't available,
choose the lowest spot you can find and lay flat with your hands over
your head. Try your best to avoid driving near trees or cars.
• Don’t try to outdrive the Tornado
Though generally speaking you should avoid trying to outrun a
tornado, there are specific circumstances in which you might need to
get in your car and drive to a safer area. When something occurs,
choose the quickest path to safety.
Keep your head below the windows and fasten your seatbelt if you find
yourself trapped in your car during a tornado. If you can reach a place
that is obviously lower than your car, then only then should you exit
your car. When you go there, cover your head and lie face down.
• Avoid overpasses if possible
Although an overpass may appear to be a secure building to take cover
behind during a storm, it may really put you in more danger. Avoid
hiding beneath overpasses or bridges as the shape might cause a
tunneling effect that can accelerate wind speeds.
• Prepare an emergency disaster kit
One way to be ready for a tornado is to consider what you would
require following one. You should assemble a disaster kit with
essentials since you have to prepare for the possibility that help won't
arrive for several days.

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