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Japan Decides 2021 The Japanese General Election Robert J Pekkanen Full Chapter
Japan Decides 2021 The Japanese General Election Robert J Pekkanen Full Chapter
Edited by
Robert J. Pekkanen
Steven R. Reed
Daniel M. Smith
Japan Decides 2021
Robert J. Pekkanen · Steven R. Reed ·
Daniel M. Smith
Editors
Daniel M. Smith
Columbia University
New York, NY, USA
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
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To my friend Paul, who is always asking me how my book is going.
This one is for you.
—From Robert J. Pekkanen
vii
Contents
ix
x CONTENTS
Index 397
Notes on Contributors
xiii
xiv NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
Political Parties
CDP Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (Rikken Minshutō)
Daichi New Party Daichi (Shintō Daichi)
DP Democratic Party (Minshintō)
DPJ Democratic Party of Japan (Minshutō)
Hope Party of Hope (Kibō no Tō)
HRP Happiness Realization Party (Kōfuku Jitsugen Tō)
Ishin Japan Ishin no Kai (Nippon Ishin no Kai)
JCP Japanese Communist Party (Nihon Kyōsantō)
Kokoro Party for Japanese Kokoro (Nippon no Kokoro)
Kōmeitō Kōmeitō
LDP Liberal Democratic Party (Jiyū Minshutō)
Reiwa Reiwa Shinsengumi
SDP Social Democratic Party (Shakai Minshutō)
TF Tokyoites First (Tōmin Faasuto no Kai)
Newspapers
Asahi Asahi Shinbun
Mainichi Mainichi Shinbun
Nikkei Nihon Keizai Shinbun
Sankei Sankei Shinbun
Yomiuri Yomiuri Shinbun
xix
xx ABBREVIATIONS
Other Abbreviations
ASEAN Association for Southeast Asian Nations
COVAX COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access
CPTPP Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership
DNLW Dually Nominated List Winner
DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
FOIP Free and Open Indo-Pacific
FPTP First-Past-The-Post Electoral System
HC House of Councillors
HR House of Representatives
KPI Key Performance Indicator
MP Member of Parliament (or Diet Member, DM)
ODA Official Development Assistance
PR Proportional Representation
QUAD Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
SDF Self-Defense Forces
SEA-IP region Southeast Asian/Indo-Pacific region
SMD Single-Member District
TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership
WHO World Health Organization
List of Figures
xxi
xxii LIST OF FIGURES
xxv
xxvi LIST OF TABLES
This book analyzes the background and results of the October 31, 2021,
general election for Japan’s House of Representatives (HR). This is the
fourth volume of Japan Decides, following our analyses of the general
elections of 2012, 2014, and 2017 (Pekkanen et al. 2013, 2016, 2018).
Each previous volume analyzed an election in which Abe Shinzō led the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to an overwhelming victory, in coali-
tion with Kōmeitō. This volume also follows an LDP-Kōmeitō victory,
but not an overwhelming one and one in which Abe was not the LDP
leader for the first time in a decade. Perhaps more significantly, this is the
R. J. Pekkanen (B)
Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
USA
e-mail: pekkanen@uw.edu
S. R. Reed
Faculty of Policy Studies, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan
D. M. Smith
Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
e-mail: dms2323@columbia.edu
first (and we hope only) Japanese HR election held during the coron-
avirus (or COVID-19) pandemic. For that reason, this election will be of
broad comparative interest to scholars trying to make sense of the polit-
ical consequences of the global pandemic. We make our own arguments
about how the coronavirus pandemic affected the 2021 election in Japan
in the conclusion to this volume.
In the chapter that follows this Introduction, Robert J. Pekkanen and
Steven R. Reed provide more background and context to the election.
The chapter touches on several events on which later chapters will focus,
such as the coronavirus pandemic, the reorganization and campaign of the
opposition parties, the transitions in LDP leadership from Abe to Suga
Yoshihide to Kishida Fumio, and the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics,
but also sets the political stage through a discussion of the 2019 House
of Councillors (HC) election that preceded the fall 2021 HR election.
The third chapter, by Ko Maeda, argues that the results of the 2021
election seem superficially comparable to those of 2012, 2014, and
2017, with the LDP-Kōmeitō coalition maintaining a majority and the
opposition remaining fragmented. However, the chapter also identifies
important differences in this 2021 election. First, the single-member
district (SMD) races are becoming more volatile. Several veteran incum-
bents lost seats they had held for a long time. Second, Nippon Ishin no
Kai (Ishin) more than tripled its seats and further fragmented the opposi-
tion camp. Third, the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party
(CDP) and several smaller opposition parties coordinated candidate nomi-
nations in SMDs and gained many districts previously held by the LDP.
Yet, the CDP’s dismal performance in the proportional representation
(PR) tier of the mixed-member electoral system led to its overall loss in
this election. The performance of the opposition parties is also taken up
later in the volume, as the next three chapters consider political parties
more specifically.
The first of these and the fourth chapter in the volume, by Kuniaki
Nemoto, focuses on the LDP’s internal party presidential election and
candidate nomination processes to analyze how the party prepared to
stay in power before the 2021 election. With the new presidential elec-
tion process, the party was able to replace an unpopular leader (Suga)
just before the election, although it did not choose the most popular
contender (instead choosing Kishida). Using various tools at the party’s
disposal, such as internal polls and the PR tier, the LDP tried to mini-
mize the fragmentation of the conservative vote, although ultimately it
1 INTRODUCTION: JAPAN’S CORONAVIRUS ELECTION 3
took place in 12 districts and the LDP lost to the opposition in five of
them. Overall, the LDP was able to avoid a major loss, even though it
was not able to increase its seats.
In Chapter 5, Robert J. Pekkanen and Steven R. Reed analyze the
opposition. They trace the evolution of the opposition parties from their
situation in late 2017 following the 2017 election. At that time, the major
opposition parties included the Party of Hope as the third largest party
after the collapse of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), but by the
2021 election, that party effectively no longer existed. The creation and
destruction of the persistently fragmented opposition is a major theme in
Japanese politics and of this chapter. The chapter also examines the coor-
dination among four parties on the left––the CDP, Japanese Communist
Party (JCP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Reiwa Shinsengumi––
which it argues was successful. Finally, the authors speculate on the future
of the opposition in Japan.
The sixth chapter returns to the governing coalition, this time exam-
ining Kōmeitō. Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin argue that, in October
2021, Kōmeitō solidified its importance as a coalition partner to the LDP
and its influential place within the national government. The chapter
details how the party navigated its election campaign between contrasting
demands from the LDP and members of Sōka Gakkai, the lay Buddhist
organization that founded Kōmeitō in 1964 and remains the party’s, and
Japan’s, most potent vote-gathering bloc. It highlights the ways through
which Kōmeitō promoted social welfare initiatives in response to the
COVID-19 pandemic, how it mitigated the rise of Ishin in western Japan,
and how its historic links to the People’s Republic of China may grow in
importance as tensions rise in the region. The chapter also considers the
impact of scandals among its members, an overall trajectory of lowered
vote counts, and how changes underway within Sōka Gakkai may shape
Kōmeitō’s future and affect LDP electioneering and policymaking.
Following these three introductory chapters and the three focusing on
the main set of political parties, the volume proceeds with five chapters
that consider contemporary party politics in Japan from different angles:
Abe’s legacy, candidate selection, generational change in leadership, party
switching, and ministerial selection.
The first of these is written by Tobias Harris and focuses on the legacy
of one of Japan’s most dominant political figures, Abe Shinzō. After
resigning as prime minister and leader of the LDP in September 2020,
it was unclear what role Abe would play in Japanese politics. However,
4 R. J. PEKKANEN ET AL.
electoral reform, Japan’s party system has been in constant flux. After
a slow build toward a predominantly two-party system, politics are
currently dominated by the LDP and its coalition partner Kōmeitō,
with an ever-changing roster of opposition parties vying for the place
of challenger. The 2021 election continued the recent state of political
(non)competition as opposition parties were unable to make a dent in the
LDP’s sizeable majority. While there are numerous contributing factors
that explain Japan’s anemic party competition, Hamzawi focuses on how
candidates navigate their partisan affiliation. He finds that candidates,
particularly candidates from the opposition, follow a pattern of switching
from weak parties to new parties, preferring the potential of a new party
over the issues with existing ones. Instead of slowly building strength
with a roster of seasoned candidates, Japan’s opposition parties constantly
collapse in on themselves because of candidate choices.
In the final chapter on party politics, Hiroki Kubo examines how and
why ministers are selected in Japanese cabinets under the three most
recent prime ministers. Kubo analyzes the outcomes of cabinet port-
folio allocation, comparing LDP faction seat shares and the percentage of
cabinet portfolios each secured in the six cabinets formed since 2017. His
analysis reveals that: First, there is overall proportionality between faction
seat shares andcabinet portfolios; second, there is nevertheless a relative
advantage enjoyed by the prime minister’s faction and the large main
factions; and third, independent LDP members are not disadvantaged
in portfolio allocation. In terms of seniority, relatively young MPs have
been included in the cabinet. In addition, the Kishida cabinet features
three female MPs, accounting for 15% of cabinet members. We return to
the broader issue of women’s representation in Japan later in the volume.
After these chapters on party politics, we turn to the campaign for the
next four chapters—on public opinion with a focus on COVID-19, social
media, youth turnout, and how COVID-19 affected the election results.
Chapter 12 is authored by Yukio Maeda and investigates public
opinion. The 2021 election results surprised journalists and pollsters in
Japan. This chapter explains why the LDP outperformed expectations by
examining media polls and coverage of three prime ministers from 2017
to 2021. Abe struggled to respond to the novel coronavirus while also
dealing with conventional corruption allegations. His successor, Suga,
initially received high approval ratings as people expected him to manage
the pandemic better than Abe. However, these expectations became
a liability when COVID-19 cases surged while Japan was hosting the
6 R. J. PEKKANEN ET AL.
further economic measures were the primary issue facing the 2021 elec-
tion. Under monetary constraints, the economic policy choice among
Japan’s conventional growth strategy, distribution, and fiscal discipline
creates a trilemma, whereby the government can pursue only two of
these three goals. In this election, the LDP-Kōmeitō coalition managed
to straddle between distribution and growth strategy, while exploiting
the policy space for the opposition parties. Although the coalition main-
tained its electoral majority, the inroads made by Ishin, Reiwa, and
the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) whose campaigns neglected
fiscal discipline in favor of both growth and distribution foreshadows the
challenge against the Japanese government’s future fiscal health.
In Chapter 18, Yeon Ju Lee investigates income inequality and the
election. The chapter examines how income inequality began to receive
attention from politicians and voters before the 2021 election. While
income inequality has dominated the political agenda in numerous coun-
tries around the world, it has not been a politically salient issue in
Japan even though it has been increasing since the 1980s. However,
income inequality became politically visible to voters and politicians as
the COVID-19 pandemic further strained the already stagnant economy,
having a direct impact on people, especially those who were less well off.
Both ruling and opposition parties responded to the public dissatisfaction
by introducing measures to address income inequality in their party plat-
forms, including Prime Minister Kishida’s vision of “New Capitalism” to
promote simultaneous growth and distribution.
In Chapter 19, Yesola Kweon furthers the investigation of a critical
topic: women’s representation. This chapter examines women’s represen-
tation in Japanese politics and the Japanese economy. In the economic
realm, Womenomics implemented under the Abe regime made several
meaningful improvements in women’s labor participation, especially for
those who have children. However, little progress was made in terms of
the gender wage gap and gender disparities in high-quality job employ-
ment. The COVID-19 pandemic also had a disproportionate impact on
women, parents, and those with non-regular jobs. This, in turn, led to
lower trust and confidence in the government and its policy responses
to the pandemic. The latter half of the chapter considers gender repre-
sentation in politics. The 2021 election saw a decrease in the number of
women representatives. As with previous elections, the ruling LDP had
the smallest share of female candidates and elected women legislators.
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competition with theirs, and who will prize more highly the pleasure
he receives than that he may be capable of bestowing—such a man
appears to me, in the essentials of character, a brute. The brutes
commonly seek the satisfaction of their propensities with straight-
forward selfishness, and never calculate whether their companions
are gratified or teased by their importunities. Man cannot assimilate
his nature more closely to theirs, than by imitating them in this.
Again. There is no instinct in regard to which strict temperance is
more essential. All our animal desires have hitherto occupied an
undue share of human thoughts; but none more generally than this.
The imaginations of the young and the passions of the adult are
inflamed by mystery or excited by restraint, and a full half of all the
thoughts and intrigues of the world has a direct reference to this
single instinct. Even those, who like the Shakers, ‘crucify the flesh,’
are not the less occupied by it in their secret thoughts; as the Shaker
writings themselves may afford proof. Neither human institutions
nor human prejudices can destroy the instinct. Strange it is, that men
should not be content rationally to control, and wisely to regulate it.
SEXUAL WEAKNESS
After seven months of pregnancy the fœtus has all the conditions
for breathing and exercising its digestion. It may then be separated
from its mother, and change its mode of existence. Child-birth rarely,
however, happens at this period: most frequently the fœtus remains
two months longer in the uterus, and it does not pass out of this
organ till after the revolution of nine months.
Examples are related of children being born after ten full months
of gestation; but these cases are very doubtful, for it is extremely
difficult to know the exact period of conception. The legislation in
France, however, has fixed the principle, that child-birth may take
place up to the two hundred and ninety-ninth day of pregnancy.
Nothing is more curious than the mechanism by which the fœtus is
expelled; everything happens with wonderful precision; all seems to
have been foreseen, and calculated to favor its passage through the
pelvis and the genital parts.
The physical causes that determine the exit of the fœtus are the
contraction of the uterus and that of the abdominal muscles; by their
force the liquor amnii flows out, the head of the fœtus is engaged in
the pelvis, it goes through it, and soon passes out by the valve, the
folds of which disappear; these different phenomena take place in
succession, and continue a certain time; they are accompanied with
pains more or less severe; with swelling and softening of the soft
parts of the pelvis and external genital parts, and with an abundant
mucous secretion in the cavity of the vagina. All these circumstances,
each in its own way, favor the passage of the fœtus. To facilitate the
study of this action, it may be divided into several periods.
The first period of child-birth.—It is constituted by the precursory
signs. Two or three days before child-birth a flow of mucus takes
place from the vagina, the external genital parts swell and become
softer; it is the same with the ligaments that unite the bones of the
pelvis; the mouth of the womb flattens, its opening is enlarged, its
edges become thinner; slight pains, known under the name of flying
pains, are felt in the loins and abdomen.
Second period.—Pains of a peculiar kind come on; they begin in
the lumbar region, and seem to be propagated towards the womb or
the rectum; and are renewed only after intervals of a quarter or half
an hour each. Each of them is accompanied with an evident
contraction of the body of the uterus, with tension of its neck and
dilatation of the opening; the finger directed into the vagina
discovers that the envelopes of the fœtus are pushed outward, and
that there is a considerable tumor, which is called the waters; the
pains very soon become stronger, and the contraction of the uterus
more powerful; the membranes break, and a part of the liquid
escapes; the uterus contracts on itself, and is applied to the surface of
the fœtus.
Third period.—The pains and contractions of the uterus increase
considerably; they are instinctively accompanied by the contraction
of the abdominal muscles. The woman who is aware of their effect is
inclined to favour them, by making all the muscular efforts of which
she is capable: her pulse then becomes stronger and more frequent;
her face is animated, her eyes shine, her whole body is in extreme
agitation, and perspiration flows in abundance. The head descends
into the lower strait of the pelvis.
Fourth period.—After some moments of repose the pains and
expulsive contractions resume all their activity; the head presents
itself at the vulva, makes an effort to pass, and succeeds when there
happens to be a contraction sufficiently strong to produce this effect.
The head being once disengaged, the remaining parts of the body
easily follow, on account of their smaller volume. The section of the
umbilical cord is then made, and a ligature is put around it at a short
distance from the umbilicus or navel.
Fifth period.—If the midwife has not proceeded immediately to the
extraction of the placenta after the birth of the child, slight pains are
felt in a short time, the uterus contracts freely, but with force enough
to throw off the placenta and the membranes of the ovum; this
expulsion bears the name of delivery. During the twelve or fifteen
days that follow child-birth the uterus contracts by degrees upon
itself, the woman suffers abundant perspirations, her breasts are
extended by the milk that they secrete; a flow of matter, which takes
place from the vagina, called lochia, first sanguiferous, then whitish,
indicates that the organs of the woman resume, by degrees, the
disposition they had before conception.
MANAGEMENT OF LABOR.