INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (ISM) DHANBAD

Department of Management Studies & Industrial Engineering

QUIZ-I Solutions
Operations Analytics: MSD525
(Academic Year 2023-24)
Course: Operations Analytics Max Marks: 40
Date: 19/2/24 Duration: 30 Minutes
Instructions: Scientific Calculators are allowed

Ans 1. MA (3) = (210 + 235 + 255)/3 ------------ (1 mark)

MA (3) = 233.33 -------------------------------------(1 Mark)

Ans 2. MA (4) = (72 + 65 + 58 + 60)/4 = 255/4 = 63.75 ---------- (1 mark)

MA (3) = (72 + 65 + 58)/3 = 195/3 = 65 ----------------------------(1 mark)
MA (4) – MA (3) = 63.75 – 65 = -1.25 or 1.25 -------------------------------(1 mark)
Ans 3. (i) Ordinal------------ (1 mark)
(ii) Nominal------------ (1 mark)
(iii) Interval Data------------ (1 mark)
Ans 4. Predicted Mean = (10* 0.1 + 30 * 0.4 + 60 * 0.4 + 90*0.1) = (1 + 12 + 24 + 9) = 46 ---
--------- (1.5 marks)
Standard Deviation = square root of (0.1*(10 – 46)2 + 0.4*(30 – 46)2 + 0.4*(60 – 46)2 +
0.1*(90 – 46)2) = square root of ((129.6 + 102.4 + 78.4 + 193.6)) = square root of (504) =
22.45 ------------ (1.5 marks)
Since, it is demand at a store that is modelled by a random variable which takes the different
values across four different scenarios, the predictive standard deviation is
22.45…………………………(1 Mark)
Ans 5. 1st3-point moving average:
(21+24+21)÷3=22oC

 2nd3-point moving average is:

(24+21+27)÷3=24oC

 3rd3-point moving average is:

(21+27+30)÷3=26oC (4 marks)

 4th3-point moving average is:

(27+30+28.5)÷3=28.5oC
 5th3-point moving average is:
(30+28.5+36)÷3=31.5oC

So we got the 3-point moving averages like 22,24,26,28.5 and 31.5.The moving averages
are increasing, and hence the general trend is that the temperatures are rising through the
week. (2 Marks)

Ans 6. 𝑒𝑡 = 𝐹𝑡 − 𝐷𝑡 => 𝐹𝑡 = 120 − 20 = 100------------ (1 mark)

𝐹𝑡+1 = 𝛼𝐷𝑡 + (1 − 𝛼)𝐹𝑡 = . 2 ∗ 120 + (1 – 0.2) * 100 = 24 + 80 = 104------------ (1 mark)

Ans 7. 𝐹𝑡+1 = 𝛼𝐷𝑡 + (1 − 𝛼)𝐹𝑡 = F2024 = F2023 + 𝛼 (𝐷2023 − 𝐹2023) = 1,80,200 +

0.25 (1,95,000 − 1,80,200) = 1,80,200 + 3700 = 1,83,900------------ (1 mark)
D2024 = 1,75,000 & F2024 = 1,83,900 ------------ (1 mark)
So, F2025 = F2024 + 𝜶 (𝑫𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 − 𝑭𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒) = 𝟏, 𝟖𝟑, 𝟗𝟎𝟎 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 (𝟏, 𝟕𝟓, 𝟎𝟎 − 𝟏𝟖𝟑, 𝟗𝟎𝟎) =
𝟏, 𝟖𝟑, 𝟗𝟎𝟎 − 𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟓 = 𝟏, 𝟖𝟏, 𝟔𝟕𝟓------------ (1 mark)
Ans 8. Yes ------------ (1 mark), it may be sensible to attach larger weights to more recent
observations than to observations from the distant past. ------------ (1 mark)
Ans 9. One------------ (1 mark)
Ans 10. Magnitude of error/It tells about absolute magnitude of forecast error for the given
period. ------------ (1 mark)
Ans 11. Mean Sum Product Error (MSPE) ------------ (1 mark)
Ans 12. Coefficient of Determination------------ (1 mark)
Ans 13. (Y = a + bx); 5.50 = 1.50 + b*2.50------------ (1 mark) => 2.50 b = 4 => b = 4/2.5 =
1.6------------ (1 mark)
Ans 14. The absence of any linear relationship between them------------ (1 mark)
Ans 15. No Change------------ (1 mark)
Ans 16. To summarize and describe the main features of a dataset ------------ (1 mark)
Ans 17. The spread of data points around the median------------ (1 mark)
Ans 18. 17------------ (1 mark)
Ans 19. Kurtosis------------ (1 mark)
Ans 20. Mean------------ (1 mark)
Ans 21. Range------------ (1 mark)
Ans 22. The distribution cannot be determined from these statistics ------------ (1 mark)