THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF THE SEA

BREEZE ARRIVAL TIME AT TOKYO

Yuta Nejime1, Makoto Nakayoshi2, Manabu Kanda3
1
International Development Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan,
nejime.y.aa@m.titech.ac.jp
2
Civil engineering, Tokyo University of Science, Chiba, Japan, nakayoshi@rs.tus.ac.jp
3
International Development Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan,
kanda.m.aa@m.titech.ac.jp

Received Date: August 15th, 2014

Abstract
The impact of urbanization to the sea breeze has been one of the emerging topic due to its mitigation
effect of urban heat island. This research is focused on sea breeze transformation during 1960s and
2010s by regular observation records from Japan Meteorological Agency. The analysis of
urbanization and synoptic effect as the causes of the sea breeze behavior were done separately to
give profound understanding in each case. The study area are Otemachi (Metropolitan
center near the coastal line) and Kumagaya (inland city 65km distance from the coast).
The observation data analysis indicates slight difference of sea breeze arrival time at
Otemachi during 1960s and 2010s. However, the sea breeze arrival time in Kumagaya
on 2010s is later compare to 1960s. This phenomena implies in sea breeze penetration
difficulty caused by urbanization. As mentioned above, sea breeze arrival time could
be determined by the urbanization and synoptic effect. The multiple regression in 1960s
and in 2010s were analyzed concurrently with synoptic effect. The coefficient among
meteorological parameters indicates the urbanization as local effect was the main cause
of delayed sea breeze arrival time. T herefore, urban climate gives important impact in
the sea breeze behavior and advances sea breeze arrival time.

Keywords: Sea Breeze Approach Time, Interannual Variation, Multiple Regression

1. Introduction
The impact of urbanization to sea breeze behavior has been one of the emerging topic1 due
to its mitigation effect of urban heat island. Kusaka et al2 suggested the sea breeze delay over
the urbanized area by simulation. Also Yoshikado et al3 also stated that the sea breeze is
delayed due to the high temperature and low pressure in the urbanized region by using
numerical analysis. However it was not clearly stated in these researches the effect of both
urbanization and global warming on sea breeze behavior. Lack of data is one of the reasons
for the difficulties in investigating the sea breeze behavior in former years like 1960s (later
we call it old dataset). However, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has been observing
more than 100 years, and they still have observed data after 1960s.
This research focuses on the change in sea breeze behaviors between 1960s and 2010s using
routine observation records of JMA. Through the analysis, the effect of urbanization and
synoptic climate change on sea breeze behavior was separately discussed.
2. Methodology
The study area are Otemachi which is metropolitan center near the coastal line, and
Kumagaya which is inland city 65km distance from the coastal line (Fig.1).

( : Otemachi)
( : Kumagaya)

Fig. 1 Location of target area

Analysis day were selected from the following criteria:

 Clear days
 Has more than 7 hours sunshine time
 Has wind direction southeast to south-southwest during mean maximum wind velocity
Analysis periods were July to September between 1965 and 1969 for old day’s dataset and
between 2009 and 2013 for current situation in Otemachi. Also there were July to September
between 1965 and 1979 for old case and between 2002 and 2013 for current condition in
Kumagaya. In the following part, the old analysis terms are called “1960s”, and latest terms
are called “2010s”, respectively. The reason why the analysis term were different is because
it was difficult for sea breeze to penetrate inland area, and it was necessary for the number
of enough days to analyze statistically. Sea breeze arrival time was estimated by specific
humidity, wind direction, wind velocity and temperature following the method by Gamo4.
The old data was available only in autographic recording and thus all the data required
digitalization before the analysis. Multiple linear regression analysis for the sea breeze
arrival time at Otemachi and Kumagaya were conducted in order to separate the urban impact
and synoptic climate change to sea breeze behavior. The multiple regression was derived
from the following climate condition as explanatory variables: Sunrise time (𝑇𝑟 ), Synoptic
pressure gradient (𝑈: positive in Southeast, 𝑉: positive in Southwest), Daily temperature
difference (∆𝑇), Daily amount of global solar radiation (𝑄) and rainfall amount on the
previous day (𝑅). Here time difference between sunrise and sea breeze arrival time was set
as explained variable refer to Nakagawa et al5. Since climate condition were selected as the
explanatory variables, the derived multiple regression is expected to reflect the surface
condition; considering that sea breeze was affected by both climate and surface conditions.
The difference of derived equation from 1960s and 2010s data might explain the difference
surface conditions between two periods.
3. Result

3.1 Sea Breeze Arrival Time

The number of the analysis days were 123 in 2010s and 69 in 1960s at Otemachi, and 56 in
2010s and 63 in 1960s at Kumagaya, respectively. Fig.2 shows the histogram of sea
breeze arrival time in Otemachi. The selected data for sea breeze arrival time were morning.
The sea breeze arrival time seems almost same during two terms especially 9:00 to 11:00,
while only few days’ arrival time in 2010s are earlier than in 1960s. The average time of sea
breeze arrival was 10:00 in 2010s and 10:01 in 1960s, respectively. Fig.3 shows that the
lag time of sea breeze arrival from Otemachi through Kumagaya. The required time in 2010s
was later than those in 1960s; the average time was 4:31 in 2010s and 4:09 in 1960s,
respectively. Through this analysis, it is considered that difficulty of sea breeze penetration
by urbanization.

0.2
0.16 1960s
2010s
Ratio

0.12
0.08
0.04
0

11:00

11:40
10:00
10:10
10:20
10:30
10:40
10:50

11:10
11:20
11:30

11:50
12:00
8:00
8:10
8:20
8:30
8:40
8:50
9:00
9:10
9:20
9:30
9:40
9:50

Time (JST)
Fig. 2 The ratio of sea breeze approach time at Otemachi
0.2
1960s
0.15
2010s
Ratio

0.1
0.05
0
3:50

6:40
2:30
2:40
2:50
3:00
3:10
3:20
3:30
3:40

4:00
4:10
4:20
4:30
4:40
4:50
5:00
5:10
5:20
5:30
5:40
5:50
6:00
6:10
6:20
6:30

6:50
7:00

Lag time of sea breeze arrival between Otemachi and Kumagaya

Fig. 3 Frequency distribution of sea breeze arrival time from Otemachi to Kumagaya

3.2 Effect of Urbanization and Synoptic Climate Change on Sea Breeze Behavior

3.2.1 Otemachi case

The sea breeze arrival time was decided and the synoptic condition data were observed. So
from those datasets, the multiple regression which can estimate the sea breeze arrival time
in 1960s (Eq.1) and 2010s (Eq.2) in Otemachi were derived as follows,
𝑇𝑝 = 𝑇𝑟 + 0.180 + 35.7 × 𝑈 + 40.3 × 𝑉 + (5.223 × 10−3 ) × (∆𝑇)
(Eq.1)
+ (6.841 × 10−4 ) × Q + (−1.622 × 10−4 ) × 𝑅
𝑇𝑝 = 𝑇𝑟 + 0.144 + 135.8 × 𝑈 + 152.0 × 𝑉 + (1.055 × 10−2 ) × (∆𝑇)
(Eq.2)
+ (5.693 × 10−4 ) × Q + (8.856 × 10−4 ) × 𝑅
Here, 𝑇𝑝 means the estimated sea breeze arrival time. Substituting 2010s input data to the
above equations gives the insight of the difference of surface condition between two periods.

1960 ▲Estimated Sea

2010 Surface condition Breeze arrival time
Climate condition 2010 ●Estimated Sea
Surface condition Breeze arrival time
12:00
time from regression formula
Estimated sea breeze arrival

11:00

10:00

9:00

8:00

7:00
8:00 7:00
9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00
(real) Sea breeze arrival time in 2010s (JST)
Fig. 4 Estimated sea breeze arrival time from observed data in 2010s at Otemachi
(Reflected the surface condition)

1960 ▲Estimated Sea

Climate condition 2010 Breeze arrival time
2010 Surface condition ●Estimated Sea
Climate condition Breeze arrival time
14:00
time from regression formula
Estimated sea breeze arrival

13:00
12:00
11:00
10:00
9:00
8:00
8:00 9:00 7:0010:00 11:00 12:00 13:00
(real) Sea breeze arrival time in each terms (JST)
Fig. 5 Estimated sea breeze arrival time from each regression formula at Otemachi
(Reflected the Climate condition)

Fig.4 shows the sea breeze arrival time estimated in the 2010s equation (Eq.2) tended to be
late than those in 1960s, which has possibly of the reflection of the difference of the ground
surface drag effect by urban obstacles like buildings. Substitution of 1960s data to the
equation also showed the similar result (not shown here). Meanwhile, substituting data
in 1960s and 2010s to the 2010s equation (Eq.2) could give the effect of change in synoptic
climate. Fig.5 shows the estimated sea breeze arrival time in 2010s was earlier than those in
1960s. One of the considerable reasons could be the large temperature difference between
land and sea surface caused by global warming. Due to the big thermal inertia in sea, the
change in sea surface temperature by the global warming could be smaller than in land.
Using Eq.1 also shows a same trend (not shown here). The significance of the above
results was confirmed by the F-test and T-test.

3.2.2 Kumagaya case

The methodology are same as Tokyo case. Multiple regression in 1960s (Eq.3) and 2010s
(Eq.4) at Kumagaya were derived as follows,
𝑇𝑝 = 𝑇𝑟 + 0.418 + (−45.7) × 𝑈 + (−51.1) × 𝑉 + (−1.098 × 10−3 ) × (∆𝑇)
(Eq.3)
+ (−1.523 × 10−3 ) × Q + (2.706 × 10−3 ) × 𝑅
𝑇𝑝 = 𝑇𝑟 + 0.372 + 159.7 × 𝑈 + 178.3 × 𝑉 + (1.593 × 10−2 ) × (∆𝑇)
(Eq.4)
+ (−3.260 × 10−3 ) × Q + (1.259 × 10−3 ) × 𝑅
Fig.6 shows the sea breeze arrival time estimated in the 2010s equation (Eq.4) also tended
to be late than those in 1960s. Substitution of 1960s data to the equation also showed the
similar result, not shown here. The difference of the gradient of approximate line had a
bigger at Kumagaya than at Tokyo (Fig.4). It indicated that it was difficult for sea breeze to
penetrate inland area due to the large surface drag effect. However substituting data in 1960s
and 2010s to the 2010s equation (Eq.4) or 1960s equation (Eq.3) didn’t show any significant
difference confirmed by F-test and T-test.

1960 ▲Estimated Sea

2010 Surface condition Breeze arrival time
Climate condition 2010 ●Estimated Sea
Surface condition Breeze arrival time
17:00
time from regression formula
Estimated sea breeze arrival

16:00

15:00

14:00

13:00

12:00
13:00 12:00
14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00
(real) Sea breezez arrival time in 2010s (JST)
Fig. 6 Estimated sea breeze arrival time from observed data in 2010s at Kumagaya
(Reflected the surface condition)
4. Conclusion
The delay of sea breeze arrival time by surface drag effects like increase of built up areas
was found from long term observation analysis and multiple regression analysis. This
tendency was also supported by simulation. However by using simulation, it is difficult to
estimate the real urbanized effect. Based on the result of statistical analysis, the average
difference of lag time of sea breeze arrival time between Otemachi and Kumagaya during
1960s and 2010s was only 30 minutes. While the simulation by Kusaka et al2 shows the lag
time of sea breeze arrival time between Otemachi and Ageo (inland city around 40km
distance from the coast) during 1900 and 1985 was 2 hours, it can proof that sea breeze
arrival time in 1900 was earlier than 1985. It is considered an overestimation in the
simulation compare with the statistical observation data. Hence, climate condition has
important role to generate the sea breeze and advance the sea breeze arrival time in recent
years.

Acknowledgement
This research was supported by the Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
(RECCA) Fund from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(MEXT) of Japan ,the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A):25249066 and JSPS Asian
CORE Program.

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