Eastern Hemlock Disturbance History at the Southern Range Limit, Southwest Virginia, USA

Hypotheses
1. Tree-ring data from eastern hemlock growing in southwest Virginia can be used to analyze climate-
growth relationships to better understand the (1) effects of rapid climate changes on dominant tree
species in the forest ecosystems of the southern Appalachians, and (2) effects of the Hemlock
Woolly Adelgid (HWA) impacts on eastern hemlock in the region.
2. Vegetation plot-level data will reveal a better understanding of the future trajectory of eastern
hemlock-dominated forests, which will contribute to disentangling their responses to different
seasonal climates and predict their response to future environmental scenarios under anthropogenic
climate change.
Introduction & Rationale for the Project
During this era of rapid environmental change and climatic warming, using tree-ring analysis to
reconstruct and better understand past climate changes will further enhance our comprehension of complex
relationships between tree growth and climate (Fritts 1976; Saladyga & Maxwell 2015; Maxwell et al.
2016). The following proposal seeks to fund the following: (1) travel and workshop fee for University of
Idaho (UI) undergraduate student, Maia Cuddy, to participate in the 2024 Dendrochronology Field School
(DFS) in Pembroke, Virginia—an intensive learning experience in dendrochronology (tree-ring science);
and (2) development of a vegetation dataset, including an eastern hemlock ring-width chronology ,that
captures climatological and ecological change in the central Appalachian region. Various tree-ring studies
have illustrated the changing relationship between climate growth and forests of the southern Appalachians
(e.g. Saladyga & Maxwell 2015, Wilder and Boyd 2016). Analyzing the climate response of eastern
hemlock and incorporating vegetation plot-level data can lead us to better comprehend how eastern hemlock
and other central Appalachian region tree species will respond to the climate in different seasons, and
therefore in the future (Fritts 1976). Finally, because I will be conducting this research at the DFS, I will be
gaining unique knowledge, expertise, and networking opportunities for a vital field of work that I can bring
back to the UI and the Idaho Tree-Ring Lab (ITRL).
Methods & Scientific Approach
The study will be conducted at Mountain Lake Biological Station in Pembroke, Virginia. I will
establish two 0.10-hectare plots through stratified random sampling. For each plot, I will collect forest
biophysical metrics [e.g. vertical forest structure, seedling/sapling abundance, qualitative vigor scale,
species classifications, crown class, and diameter at breast height (DBH)] (Speer 2010). Two core samples
will be taken from trees in the plot greater than 5 cm DBH and taller than 1.2 m to create and develop a
chronology for the plot. All samples will be dried, mounted, and then sanded to reveal the cellular structure.
Once polished, I will image cores using a flatbed scanner at a high resolution (3200 dpi), then growth rings
in each core will be measured and crossdated using the CooRecorder 7.6. computer program. Finally, all
measured series will be compiled into a reference climate chronology for data analyses (Speer 2010). To
develop the climate chronology for the vegetation plots, I will access the National Climatic Data Center for
climate records of Pembroke, Virginia.
Expected Results
Tree-Ring Chronology: I expect to find a trend of increasing growth during the 17th-19th centuries, and then
at the turn of the 20th century and during the 1960s, 1980s, and the first decade of the 21st century, a switch
to below-average growth in eastern hemlock in response to increased warming. Climate-Tree Growth
Relationships: These data should imply a varied relationship between eastern hemlock and climate over
time since there should be evidence of a positive correlation between hemlock, summer precipitation, and
late winter temperatures before the HWA infestation (Saladyga & Maxwell 2015; Biermann and Grissino-
Mayer 2018).
Vegetation Plot Data: I expect that plot-level data will reveal a shift in forest demographics from an
ecosystem once dominated by eastern hemlock to habitat that is dominated by tree species more adapted to
climate change, such as the ubiquitous Acer rubrum (red maple), suggesting a loss of biodiversity.
Anticipated Difficulties and Possible Solutions
One potential difficulty is widespread mortality of eastern hemlock, which could create difficulties
finding healthy trees to study. The solution to this will be to use remote sensing to identify living trees
ahead of time. Another potential difficulty is suppressed (very narrow) rings in hemlock in response from
being attacked by HWA, making visibility of tree rings difficult. This will be resolved by using higher-
resolution imaging in the ITRL.
Broader Impacts
I will complete the beginning stages of this research project during my time at the DFS in Virginia,
which is from May 17-26, 2024. DFS is structured such that participants choose a certain scientific project
group to join at the beginning of the event (e.g. forest ecology). As such, each group conducts a research
project from start to finish during DFS, and if inclined, group participants can choose to continue the
research project after the event has concluded, including this proposed project. After completing my field
work at DFS, I will continue my research at the UI ITRL under the supervision of Dr. Harley. Skills and
knowledge I have gained from past courses at the UI such as Field Activities in Environmental Science and
Geography 100 have prepared me for this research. Moreover, by the time I attend DFS, I will have
completed a semester of working as an intern for the ITRL, which will allow me to practice the numerous
skills required for proper tree-ring analysis. During the last day of the DFS event, I will lead the group
participant presentation of our project findings to local resource managers during the presentation day.
References
Biermann, C. and Grissino-Mayer, H.D., (2018) ‘Shifting climate sensitivities, shifting paradigms: Tree-
ring science in a dynamic world,’ The Palgrave handbook of critical physical geography, pp.201-
225.
Fritts, H., (1976) ‘Tree rings and climate,’ Elsevier, pp. 567.
Maxwell, J.T., Harley, G.L. and Robeson, S.M., (2016) ‘On the declining relationship between tree growth
and climate in the Midwest United States: the fading drought signal,’ Climatic Change, 138, pp.
127-142.
Saladyga, T. and Maxwell, R. (2015) ‘Temporal variability in climate response of eastern Hemlock in the
Central Appalachian region,’ Southeastern Geographer, 55(2), pp. 143–163.
Speer, J.H., (2010) ‘Fundamentals of tree-ring research,’ University of Arizona Press, pp. 4-402.
van de Gevel, S. L., & Gentry, C. (2009) ‘Forest Stand Dynamics and Disturbance History in a Mixed
Hardwood Forest, Simes Tract, Harvard Forest, Massachusetts,’ Dendro Field School (DFS), pp.
2-9.https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Q0HdI01WFnWWNWWTZtaG1JLTg/view? t
s=65c282e9&resourcekey=0-QdqB478fyMXhRvJNNM_zzQ
Wilder, L. and Boyd, J.N., (2016) ‘Ecophysiological responses of Tsuga canadensis (Eastern Hemlock) to
projected atmospheric CO2 and warming,’ Southeastern Naturalist, 15(4), pp. 697-713.