Probability

Probability
Sample Space and Relationships among Events

Sample Space and Relationships among
Events
Sample space
is a set of all possible outcomes of a random process.
is generally denoted using the letter S
a set of all possible outcomes for a random selection from a specified
population
Example:
the sample space associated with a die toss
S {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
if we are only interested in acknowledging the occurrence of odd or
even numbers in a die
S {even, odd}
Events
Event
is any subset of a sample space.
is a collection of elements from a sample space
events are denoted using capital letters such as A, B, C, or E1, E2, E3,….
Example:
In the process of checking the quality of manufactured items, a
supervisor inspects one item and classifies it as defective or nondefective.
Then the sample space is
S {defective, nondefective}
One event in this experiment can be defined as A = Observing a defective
item
Events
Example:
In the process of checking quality of a lot of incoming material, a
supervisor inspects a sample of 25 items and classifies each as defective
or nondefective. Then he counts the number of defective items in this
sample. This experiment results in a sample space of
S {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, ….., 25}
One event in this experiment can be defined as A = Observing at most 2
defective items. Then A = {0, 1, 2}. Another event can be defined as B =
Observing at least 2 but no more than 7 defective items. Then B = {2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7}.
Events
• Now the question that Consider the following two situations:
comes to mind is, “Are all • Prizes are to be given at a ballgame during half-time.
possible outcomes listed in The winners are to be selected by randomly choosing
ticket stubs. Because each person has only one
the sample space S ticket stub, each person attending the game has an
equally likely to occur?” equal chance of winning. If we define events Ei as the
ith attendee wins the prize, then the events Ei are
• Two events are said to be equally likely.
equally likely events if one
• Ra e tickets are sold at the ballgame to benefit a
does not occur more often charity organization. Attendees are o ered tickets at
than the other. a dollar apiece and allowed to buy as many as they
• A tree diagram want. As an incentive, a large-screen TV will be given
to the owner of a ticket selected at random. If we
representation is useful in define events Ei as the ith attendee wins the prize,
determining a sample then the events Ei are not equally likely. The more
space for an experiment. ra e tickets you buy, the higher your likelihood of
winning.
Events
Example:
Suppose a firm is deciding to
build two new plants, one in the
east and one in the west. Four
eastern cities (A, B, C, D) and two
western cities (E, F) are being
considered.
Solution:
there are 8 possibilities for
locating the two plants as shown
by the tree diagram in Figure 4.2:
Events
From the tree diagram in Figure 4.2, we
can easily write the sample space as
S {AE, AF, BE, BF, CE, CF, DE, DF}
where A, B, C, D are four eastern cities, and

E and F are two western cities under
consideration.
Events
• Venn diagrams are often convenient and e ective for displaying
sample spaces, events, and relations among di erent events.
• A Venn diagram is a pictorial representation of events and a
sample space that makes use of circles.
Example:
For the experiment of throwing a 6-sided die, let us define the following
events:
A = An even number shows up
B = An odd number shows up
C = A number greater than 4 shows up
E = Observing face with number 3
3
Events
Solution:
Then the sample space
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and events
A = {2, 4, 6},
B = {1, 3, 5},
C = {5, 6}, and
E3 = {3} can be displayed using a Venn
diagram, as shown in Figure 4.3.
Events
Example:
Suppose there are 100 majors in the department of Electronics
Engineering at one university. Define events as follows:
A = Students enrolled in a calculus course

B = Students enrolled in a signal processing course
Of these 100 students, suppose 30 are enrolled in the calculus course, 25

are enrolled in the signal processing course, and 10 in both. Then, the
sample space S is the list of all 100 students. Event A lists 30 students in
the calculus course, and event B lists 25 students in the signal processing
class.
Events
Solution:
Figure 4.4 shows a Venn diagram
representation of sample space and
events.
Events A and B are not equally likely.

There are more students enrolled in
the calculus course than the signal
processing course.
If a student is selected at random, then
he/she is more likely to be enrolled in
the calculus class than in the signal
processing class.
Events
Relationships among Events
In addition to the occurrence of events A and B, the Dean of the College of
Engineering might also be interested in determining the likelihood of events
that
• The student is not enrolled in a signal processing course.

• The student is enrolled in both calculus and signal processing.
• The student is enrolled in at least one of the two courses (calculus and
signal processing).
• The student is enrolled in neither calculus nor signal processing.
Such events are determined by the complement of an event or by combining

the events, using union and intersection.
Events
•
Events
•
Events
•
Events
•
Events
Example: Figure 4.6 shows the Venn
Suppose there are 100 majors in the diagram representation of the
department of electrical engineering at one situation.
university. A student is randomly selected from
these 100 majors, then let us define events as
follows:
A = Student is enrolled in a calculus course.

B = Student is enrolled in a signal processing
course.
Of these 100 students, suppose 30 are enrolled

in the calculus course, 25 are enrolled in the
signal processing course, and 10 in both.
Events
•
Events
Example:
The Bureau of Labor
Statistics (net new workers,
2000–2010) is interested in the
composition of the workforce in
upcoming years. Their studies
resulted in the information given
in Table 4.1.
Events
The Venn diagram of key events
in this study is given in Figure 4.7.
The entire rectangle represents
the number of net new workers. In
Figure 4.7a, the circle labeled
“Women” shows that the category
of women is one of the subsets.
Figure 4.7b shows schematically
that the white (non-Hispanic) and
nonwhite subsets do not overlap,
whereas Figure 4.7c shows that
the women and white subsets do
overlap.
Events
Example:
Twenty electric motors are pulled from an assembly line and inspected for
defects. Eleven of the motors are free of defects, eight have defects on the
exterior finish, and three have defects in their assembly and will not run. Let A
denote the set of motors having assembly defects and F the set having defects
on their finish. Using A and F, write a symbolic notation for the following:
a the set of motors having both types of defects

b the set of motors having at least one type of defect
c the set of motors having no defects
d the set of motors having exactly one type of defect
Then give the number of motors in each set.

Events
•
Probability
Definition of Probability
• Words like “probably,” “likely,” and “chances” convey similar
ideas. They convey some uncertainty about the happening of an
event. In statistics, a numerical statement about the uncertainty
is made using probability with reference to the conditions under
which such a statement is true.
• Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event.
• The probability of an event is generally denoted by P(event).
•
Using similar logic, we can find
• The probability that a student is enrolled in both courses as 10/100
• The probability that a student is enrolled in neither course as 55/100
Example:
In the year 2002, was a randomly selected employed person more
likely to be a man? Was a randomly selected employed person more likely
to be a government employee?
To answer these questions, consider the estimates the Bureau of
Labor Statistics provides on the employment rates during the year 2002,
by gender and type of industry.
If a person employed in 2002 was selected at random, then
• P(selected person was a woman) = 0.46
• P(selected person was working for the government) = 0.53
Table 4.2 shows that, in the year 2002,
• The probability of being employed was
higher for men (0.54) than women (0.46).
• About 53% of those employed were in the
government compared to 38% in
manufacturing and only 9% in information.
In other words, the probability of being
employed in the government was higher
than the probability of being employed in the
fields of manufacturing or information.
•
• Plot this probability against the
number of tosses.
• What do you observe about this
probability from your graph?
When some students did this

experiment in class, the sample
paths of two of the trials came out
as shown in Figure 4.9a (labeled
as sample 1 and sample 2).
Notice two important features of
the graph:
• Both sample paths oscillate
greatly for small numbers of
observations and then settle
down around a value close to
0.20.
• The variation between the two
sample fractions is quite great for
small sample sizes and quite
small for larger sample sizes.
Example:
Distillation towers are used by chemical industries including petroleum refineries
for distillation purposes. With all the advances in distillation technology, failure rate in
distillation towers is expected to be on the decline. To identify the trend, Kister
(IChemE, 2003) collected data on 900 cases and studied causes of malfunctions
among such towers. The data identified plugging/coking as the undisputed leader of
tower malfunction. Figure 4.10 describes the breakdown of causes of plugging
stratified by the year of malfunction recorded as prior to 1992 (1992–) and 1992 or
later (1992). Suppose a tower were selected at random from the records prior to 1992.
What is the probability that the selected tower had plugging because of (a) coking, (b)
precipitation, (c) polymer, (d) coking and polymer. What are these probabilities for a
tower selected at random from records 1992 or later?
Solution:
Assume that nothing else is known
about the selected tower. We see from
the pie chart for “1992–” that From the “1992” pie chart, we get
a P(coking) 0.143 a P(coking) 0.400
b P(precipitation) 0.143 b P(precipitation) 0.236
c P(polymer) 0.107 c P(polymer) 0.091
d P(coking and polymer) 0.143 0.107 d P(coking and polymer) 0.400 0.091
0.250 0.491
Example:
Consider the national percentages
for HIV-related risk groups (Science,
1992) given in Table 4.3. A firm hires a
new worker after a national advertising
campaign.
a. What is the probability that the
worker falls in the “risky partner”
category?
b. What is the probability that the
worker is in at least one of the risk
groups?
c. If the firm hires 1,000 workers, how
many are expected to be at risk if
the 1,000 came from the
population at large?
d. If the firm hires 1,000 workers, how
many are expected to be at risk if
the 1,000 come from high-risk
cities?
Solution:
In order to answer these
questions, we assume that
prevalence of HIV-related risk
groups has remained unchanged.
a Solutions to practical problems of
this type always involve assumptions.
To answer parts (a) and (b) with the
data given, we must assume that the
new worker is randomly selected
from the national population, which
implies
P(risky partner) = 0.032
•
•
Solution:
Note that the mutually exclusive
property is essential here; otherwise,
we could not simply add the
probabilities.
c We assume that all 1,000 new hires

are randomly selected from the
national population (or a
subpopulation of the same makeup).
Then 15.1% of the 1,000, or 151
workers, are expected to be at risk.
Solution:
d We assume that the 1,000
workers are randomly selected from
high-risk cities. Then 19.6%, or 196
workers, are expected to be at risk.
Probability
Counting Rules Useful in Probability
•
Solution:
In this case, listing the possible outcomes is easy. Using Di to denote
that the ith item is defective and Ni to denote that the ith item is
nondefective, the possible outcomes are
D1D2 D1N2 N1D2 N1N2
These four outcomes could be placed in a two-way table as in Figure

4.12(a) or a tree diagram in Figure 4.12(b). This table helps us see that the
four outcomes arise from the fact that the first item has two possible
outcomes and the second item has two possible outcomes, and hence
the experiment of looking at both items has 2 x 2 = 4 outcomes. This is an
example of the product rule.
Example:
Tree diagrams are also helpful
in verifying the product rule and in
listing possible outcomes.
Suppose a firm is deciding where
to build two new plants, one in the
east and one in the west. Four
eastern cities and two western
cities are possibilities. Thus, there
are n1n2 4 x 2 x 8 possibilities for
locating the two plants. Figure
4.13 shows the listing of these
possibilities on a tree diagram.
Example:
In the case of the firm that plans to build two new plants, the eight
possible outcomes are shown in Figure 4.13. If all eight choices are
equally Likely (that is, one of the pairs of cities is selected at random), find
the probability that city E gets selected.
Solution:
City E can be selected in four di erent ways, since there are four
possible eastern cities to pair with it. Thus,
{E gets selected} = {AE} ∪ {BE} ∪ {CE} ∪ {DE}
Each of the eight outcomes has probability 1/8, since the eight events are
assumed to be equally likely. Because these eight events are mutually
exclusive,
P(E gets selected) = P(AE) + P(BE) + P(CE) + P(DE)
= 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 1/2
Example: Solution:
Five motors (numbered 1
through 5) are available for use,
and motor 2 is defective. Motors 1
and 2 come from supplier I, and
motors 3, 4, and 5 come from
supplier II. Suppose two motors
are randomly selected for use on
a particular day. Let A denote the
event that the defective motor is
selected and B the event that at
least one motor comes from
supplier I. Find P(A) and P(B).
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Probability
Rules of Probability
•
Example:
A quality-control inspector has ten assembly lines from
which to choose products for testing. Each morning of a five-day
week, she randomly selects one of the lines to work on for the day.
Find the probability that a line is chosen more than once during the
week.
Solution:
•
Additive Rule
The additive rule is useful in determining the probability of
union of events.
Example:
Suppose there are 50 students enrolled in the calculus course, 45
students enrolled in the signal processing course, and 10 in both. Select one
student at random from this group of 100 students.
A = Student is enrolled in a calculus course
B = Student is enrolled in a signal processing course
a) What is the probability that the selected student is enrolled in a calculus
class
b) What is the probability that the selected student is enrolled in signal
processing class.
c) What is the probability that the selected student is enrolled in both classes.
d) What is the probability that the selected student is enrolled in a least one
of the two classes.
e) What is the probability that the selected student is enrolled in none of this
classes.
•
Multiplicative Rule
The multiplication rule is useful to determine the probability
of intersection of events. This rule is actually just a rearrangement
of the definition of conditional probability for the case in which a
conditional probability may be known and we want to find the
probability of an intersection.
Example:
Records indicate that for the parts coming out of a hydraulic
repair shop at an airplane rework facility, 20% will have a shaft
defect, 10% will have a bushing defect, and 75% will be defect-free.
For an item chosen at random from this output, find the probability
of the following:
A: The item has at least one type of defect.
B: The item has only a shaft defect.
Solution:
Example:
A section of an electrical circuit has two relays in parallel, as
shown in Figure 4.16. The relays operate independently, and when
a switch is thrown, each will close properly with probability only 0.8.
If the relays are both open, find the probability that current will flow
from s to t when the switch is thrown.
Solution:
Solution:
Solution:
Example:
Three di erent orders are to be mailed to three supplier.
However, an absentminded secretary gets the orders mixed up
and just sends them randomly to suppliers. If a match refers to the
fact that a supplier gets the correct order, find the probability of (a)
no matches (b) exactly one match.
Solution:
Solution:

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Probability

Sample Space and Relationships among Events

S {AE, AF, BE, BF, CE, CF, DE, DF}

where A, B, C, D are four eastern cities, and

A = Students enrolled in a calculus course

Of these 100 students, suppose 30 are enrolled in the calculus course, 25

Events A and B are not equally likely.

• The student is not enrolled in a signal processing course.

Such events are determined by the complement of an event or by combining

A = Student is enrolled in a calculus course.

Of these 100 students, suppose 30 are enrolled

a the set of motors having both types of defects

Then give the number of motors in each set.

When some students did this

c We assume that all 1,000 new hires

D1D2 D1N2 N1D2 N1N2

These four outcomes could be placed in a two-way table as in Figure

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