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Prospects and Challenges for

Developing Securities Markets in


Ethiopia: An Analytical Review
Asrat Tessema*
This paper is an analytical review of the prospects and challenges of developing securities
markets in Ethiopia. With the fall of communism and the emergence of capitalism, many
countries around the world are moving toward market-oriented economies and securities
markets are springing up on all continents around the globe. Securities markets have come to
symbolize to many the essence of capitalistic economic relations. When studying the econo-
mies of developing countries, the first thing that becomes apparent is the existence of
immense and, to a considerable extent, unemployed human resources as well as an acute
shortage of capital. Shortage of capital is a major constraint in the realization of economic
development. Recognizing the role that securities markets play in mobilizing capital, more
than a dozen African countries have established stock markets. Ethiopia is not one of them.
There is little current research which focuses on Africa’s securities markets. This study helps
to contribute to that effort by focusing on Ethiopia, the second largest country in sub-
Saharan Africa plagued with major economic problems. The paper concludes by recommend-
ing the establishment of a stock market and providing suggestions on how to do it.

1. Introduction According to the International Finance Cor-


poration (IFC, 1997), sub-Saharan Africa

G overnments in developing countries face


increasing difficulties in funding public
enterprises through government allocations
attracted only $11.8 billion in private capital in
1996 or less than $1 for every $20 invested in
developing countries. This region, however,
because of budget constraints due to low savings received about 50 per cent of the $20 billion
and population explosion. It has also become annual aid to developing countries and is still
increasingly difficult to expect an increase in the mired in extreme poverty due mainly to political
flow of foreign private and government capital and economic turmoil. However, many African
because of the recent debt crises experienced by countries, including Ethiopia, are in the process
some developing countries as well as budgetary of overhauling their economic and political sys-
uncertainties in the developed countries them- tems and may be opening up the last untapped
selves. This situation has been exacerbated by market in the world. Therefore, if Ethiopia wants
the opening up of Eastern Europe and the crum- to become self-reliant through economic growth
bling of the Soviet Union. These European coun- and modernization, it will have to develop its
tries have better industrial bases than sub- domestic capital markets and rely less on foreign
Saharan African countries like Ethiopia, and sources of capital. Research has shown that
thus are likely to attract most of the limited development of securities markets1 contributes to
funds available from external sources. economic development through the mobilization

* Professor of Finance, Department of Accounting and Finance, College of Business, Eastern Michigan University,
Ypsilanti, MI, 48197, USA; e-mail: asrat.tessema@emich.edu. This study was conducted when the author was a
Fulbright scholar during the 1997/98 academic year at Addis Ababa University’s Faculty of Business and Economics.

50 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003. # Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.
Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

of savings and their channeling to the most The first phase covers the period prior to the
productive enterprises. 1974 revolution. This period may be characterized
The development of securities markets is not as a feudo-capitalistic economic system in which
an easy task, however, since many of the funda- land ownership was the source of income. Land
mentals of capitalism required for the develop- was disproportionately owned by the ruling class
ment of securities markets represent a major shift and had always been a source of complaint
in culture for many developing countries. These against the government. This period marks the
developing countries have little or no experience beginning of modernization of the country and
with modern market-driven economic mechan- the encouragement of private sector participation
isms as a whole, much less with even more com- in economic development. The government issued
plex securities markets. Nevertheless, some several proclamations to encourage private
developing countries, eager to avail themselves domestic and foreign investments. Manufacturing
of the benefits of securities markets, sometimes was given a central role with the hope that it
disregard the costs and requirements and push would stimulate other sectors of the economy.
ahead with policies that may not produce the The government provided several incentives such
desired effect. About a dozen African countries as tax holidays, tariff protection, remittance of
currently have stock markets in place; Ethiopia is profits, repatriation of invested capital, tax
not one of them. exemptions on imported capital goods and con-
The purpose of this study is to explore the cessions in the form of land leases or land grants.
possibilities of developing securities markets in As a result, the manufacturing sector had made
Ethiopia. The study is organized into five sec- steady progress. The contributions of medium and
tions. The first section provides an historical large scale manufacturing industry to GDP grew
overview of the Ethiopian private sector. The from about 2 per cent in 1961 to about 5 per cent
second section reviews the rationale for develop- by 1973 (UNIDO, 1991, p. 21).
ing securities markets. The third section discusses During the third five-year plan (1968–73, the
the costs and requirements for developing secur- last for the imperial era), 41 per cent of the
ities markets. The fourth section deals with the manufacturing activities was done by the public
current Ethiopian economic environment and sector; the remaining 59 per cent was done by the
highlights the prospects and challenges for devel- private sector (third five-year development plan,
oping securities markets. The last section pre- p. 231). The share of the private sector in con-
sents conclusions and recommended actions. struction was as high as 79 per cent.
Although the private sector was given a pro-
minent place, foreign investors dominated it, and
the local entrepreneurs’ participation was very
2. A Historical Overview of the Ethiopian low, partly because of cultural bias by the intelli-
Private Sector gentsia against business and shortage of capital.
Business was meant for less educated people.
Ethiopia, with a population of about 60 million, Most educated people regarded government
is the second most populous country in sub- employment as a dignified profession. This atti-
Saharan Africa. It is the only country in Africa tude was an impediment to development of entre-
that has never been colonized. The last emperor, preneurship. Moreover, the financial sector was
Haile Selassie, was forced to abdicate in a coup underdeveloped and largely owned and con-
in 1974. From 1974 to 1991 the country was trolled by the government. The banks that domin-
ruled by the Derg, a communist military dictator- ated the financial sector were unable to mobilize
ship. The present government is controlled by a enough capital to meet the demand, mainly
party that acquired power in 1991 when it won a because of low savings.
long civil war against the Derg. The relative role A short-lived stock market started informally
of the private sector in Ethiopia’s economic in the late 1950s and was formally instituted in
development has evolved with changes in govern- 1965. The stock market was administered by the
ments. The changes depended very much on the National Bank of Ethiopia (the equivalent of the
type of economic system adopted by the govern- Federal Reserve Board in the United States). The
ments. The Ethiopian economic environment government through the National Bank tried to
over the years can be classified into three distinct improve resource mobilization by establishing a
phases: mixed economy, command economy and share-dealing group that brought together buyers
market-oriented economy. and sellers to participate in an auction process.

# Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 51


A. Tessema

The bank laid out rudimentary rules and regu- The second phase started in 1974 with a
lations for the auction market. According to a declaration of a centrally planned command
study by J.D. Von Pischke (1968), former lec- economy. The military government’s first order
turer at Haile Selassie University’s College of of business was to nationalize most of the indus-
Business, the stock market was moderately suc- tries and assume ownership and control of vir-
cessful in its pioneering efforts to provide an tually all economic activities. The private sector
organized market for companies whose shares was marginalized.
were relatively widely held. Workable trading The infant stock market ceased to exist in
practices and standards had been developed, 1975. The government introduced a series of
and a fairly smoothly operating market mechan- policies and reorganized the manufacturing sec-
ism had been created. tor into corporations. All medium and large
It was a good start, and no crisis of public companies came under these corporations. Com-
confidence had occurred. Market capitalization, pany managers reported to corporate managers.
however, remained small and did not have much The government set input and output prices.
impact on the economy since the participation of Company managers had one duty: comply with
the general public was limited. Investors were set goals at any cost. Policies of collectivism at all
naturally reluctant to invest in a corporation in levels and anti-market policies retarded the econ-
which they do not have any personal involve- omy, and consequently foreigners who owned
ment. Businesses in many developing countries and operated most of the industries left the coun-
are carried out in a secretive environment, some- try. High-caliber Ethiopian entrepreneurs and a
thing not possible for a listed stock that is pub- qualified work force migrated to neighboring
licly traded. Moreover, opportunities for tax countries and elsewhere in the world. Domestic
evasion, which is rampant in many developing private investments virtually ceased.
countries including Ethiopia, would vanish The development policy denied investment
because of a stock market’s requirements for incentive to small-scale industries. Their access
proper bookkeeping and regular reporting of to credit was limited by the stringent require-
firm activities necessary to safeguard investors ments placed on them by the banks, which were
from the abuses of corporate insiders. all now under government ownership and con-
The private sectors accessible to most Ethi- trol. Little institutional support existed to intro-
opians were the trade and service industries, duce new technology in the private sector; as a
which in many cases require relatively less capital result, most small enterprises had very low prod-
than manufacturing, construction and mining. uctivity using basic and outdated machinery and
Thus, investors stayed away from projects requir- equipment.
ing long-term commitment. Yet, manufacturing The continued adoption of a fixed exchange
increased modestly. Despite a steady growth in rate (2.07 Birr for US $1) resulted in the over-
manufacturing, there were some problems. First, valuation of the domestic currency and under-
the sector depended heavily on imported inputs mined the competition of the local firms in the
and did not help the development of local export sector, and thus limited the country’s
resources. Second, due to tax exemptions on access to foreign exchange. Moreover, the escal-
imported capital goods, capital intensive technolo- ation of the civil war in the north and the severe
gies were used in most industries. Third, since drought that struck the country once again dis-
manufacturing companies were located in only a rupted normal economic activities. The need to
few urban centers where less than 10 per cent of increase the size of the military and to acquire
the population lived, the majority of the popula- arms necessitated an increase in the defense
tion did not feel the impact. budget. These increases put further pressure on
Agriculture remained primitive. There was the country’s meager foreign exchange reserve.
very limited use of modern technology in agricul- In 1983 the government introduced a new pol-
ture which would have helped increase product- icy encouraging participation by private invest-
ivity to meet the growing demand for consumer ors. Among the incentives were tax relief,
goods. As a result, prices soared and the spread import and export duty relief, repatriation of
of drought in the northern parts of the country capital, and protective tariff measures. Despite
worsened, triggering the revolution that culmin- such measures, the private sector, most of which
ated in ousting the government of Emperor Haile had lost confidence in the government, showed
Selassie in February 1974. A new government little interest in investing in the country. Lack of
headed by the military was instituted. investment was also reflected in a severe shortage

52 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 # Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003


Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

of the foreign exchange needed to finance the with the professed intent of creating an enabling
import of spare parts and foreign inputs. environment, which would unleash the potential
Shortage of foreign exchange also resulted in a of the private sector. At the same time, Ethiopia’s
significant decline in capacity utilization by pub- history of state intervention in the economy and
lic enterprises, making it difficult to generate the antipathy and suspicion towards private busi-
adequate revenue. Since the mid-1980s, GDP ness still lingers. The financial sector reform so
growth declined steadily, reaching negative fig- important for the realization of the private sector
ures at times. This resulted in budget deficits that potential is not moving at an appropriate pace.
had to be offset by higher external financing The government has allowed establishment of
grants and higher money supply growth, all of private banks by private citizens. As a result, six
which increased domestic inflation. private commercial banks and eight private
In 1990, the government declared a move from insurance companies have started operating, but
a centrally planned to a mixed economy in which they are not large enough to have much impact.
the private sector was once again encouraged and The largest and oldest commercial bank which
some favorable concessions were introduced. has many branch offices in the country is still
However, it was ‘too little too late’ to change owned and controlled by the government. For
the trend in light of the unfortunate fall of inter- the most part, interest rates are still determined
national coffee prices (the major export of the administratively in favor of public enterprises
country). Armed insurgents overthrew the gov- and major private companies, thus crowding
ernment in 1991. out most of the smaller enterprises. The dynamism
The third phase started in 1991 and it still of the economy is curtailed by the near exclusion of
continues. By this time the economic and polit- this segment from economic activities.
ical landscape around the world had changed. The country suffers from poor economic and
With the fall of communism and the emergence social infrastructures such as roads, power, tele-
of a global economy, many nations around the communications services, water supply, appro-
world were slowly moving towards a market- priate schools and hospitals. Another
oriented economy. It became clear that market- impediment to private sector development is the
based economies fared better than those guided lack of securities markets. The recent border con-
by socialist ideologies. flict with Eritrea (once a province of Ethiopia,
Despite the socialist orientation of the leaders independent de facto since 1991, de jure 1993) is
of the new government, it was in the country’s another problem diverting the government’s
interest to comply with the new economic order. attention away from economic development.
That meant transforming the economy from a The outcome of the conflict is uncertain. Political
centrally planned to a market-oriented system. disruption almost always affects economic activ-
Since 1992 the government has undertaken eco- ity as businesses postpone investments, scale
nomic reforms by adopting the Structural down growth projections and may even consider
Adjustment Program that meets International moving capital elsewhere.
Monetary Fund (IMF)/The World Bank require-
ments. The program’s main emphasis was the 3. A Review of the Rationale for
liberalization of both factor and commodity mar- Developing Securities Markets
kets, as well as privatization and commercializa-
tion of state-owned enterprises. The nearly universal goal of nation-states is to
As a result, new investment codes aimed at become ‘strong’ through economic growth and
stimulating both domestic and foreign private modernization. They want to see the rate of
sector investments have been enacted. In October increase in GNP go up, per capita income rise,
1992 the Ethiopian currency, birr, was devalued and efficiency and employment increase. A grow-
by a sizable amount to a level that reflected its ing literature argues that stock markets provide
approximate value. In May 1993, foreign services that boost economic growth and contrib-
exchange auctioning was introduced and, as ute to the achievement of these goals (see
such, allocation of foreign exchange to the pri- Bencivenga et al., 1996; Levine, 1991; and Obstfeld,
vate sector improved. The government also lib- 1994). Theoretical disagreements about the impor-
eralized foreign trade policy by abolishing export tance of stock markets for economic growth also
taxes on various items. exist (see Mayer, 1988; Stiglitz, 1985, 1993; Dever-
In general, the relative role of the private sec- eux and Smith, 1994; Shleifer and Summers, 1988;
tor is being enhanced by the new economic policy and Morck et al., 1990a, b).

# Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 53


A. Tessema

Levine and Zervos (1996) conducted an efforts to establish and invigorate stock
empirical study and reported a strong positive exchanges. These include Botswana, Egypt,
correlation between stock market development Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Mauritius, Mor-
and long-term economic growth. Furthermore, occo, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia,
they provided data on the trend in stock market Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. With the
activities in the recent past. exception of South Africa they are all small
During the period between 1985 and 1995, both in terms of size (capitalization) and num-
world stock market capitalization rose from bers of listed companies; and are infrequently
$4.7 trillion to $15.2 trillion, and emerging mar- traded (see table 1).
ket capitalization jumped from less than 4 per In the developed countries the existence of
cent to almost 13 per cent of total world capital- securities markets is frequently taken for granted
ization. Over this decade, the trading of shares since their development is considered a natural
in emerging stock exchanges rose from less than outgrowth of the free-market system. Only in
3 per cent of the total value of transactions on times of considerable turmoil in the markets is
the world stock exchanges to 17 per cent. In policy toward them given much attention. For
addition, Korajczyk (1996) shows that emerging developing countries in transition from a cen-
markets have become more integrated with world trally planned to a free-market economy, how-
capital markets2 during the past seven years. ever, policy with regard to securities markets
Consequently, portfolio equity flows to emerging must be more deliberate, and should involve con-
markets jumped from $150 million in 1984 to sideration of sensitive economic, political and
over $39 billion in 1995. social issues. In analyzing the net effect of devel-
However, due to the relative underdeveloped oping securities markets, one must understand
nature of equity markets in Africa, the region has benefits to developing securities markets as well
attracted a disproportionately small share of as their costs and requirements.
recent international private capital flows to Review of the literature indicates that well-
developing countries. Little current financial functioning securities markets have the following
research focusing on African equity markets is benefits:
being done. The region has not received the
attention that Latin America and South-east 1. Enhanced savings mobilization. Stock and
Asian countries received in the literature. bond issues serve to increase the national
Recently, however, recognizing the potential savings rate by creating incentives to invest.
benefits of a well-functioning equity market, sev- Since securities are risky investments, they
eral African countries have made important generally earn higher returns than more secure

Table 1. Sub-Saharan African stock markets.

Year established Listings (No. Capitalization (US$ million) Value traded


of domestic (US$ million)
companies)
1996 1990 1996 1996

Botswana (1989) 12 NA 326 31


Ivory Coast (1976) 31 549 914 19
Ghana (1989) 21 NA 1492 17
Kenya (1954) 56 453 1846 67
Malawi (1996) NA NA NA NA
Mauritius (1989) 40 268 1676 78
Namibia (1992) 12 NA 473 38
Nigeria (1961) 183 1372 3560 72
South Africa (1887) 626 137540 241571 27202
Swaziland (1990) 6 17 1642 8
Zambia (1994) 5 NA 229 3
Zimbabwe (1946) 64 2395 3635 255
Malaysia 621 48611 307179 173568
Brazil 551 16354 216990 112108
UK 2433 848866 1740246 578471
USA 8479 3059434 8484433 7121487
Source: IFC (1997). NA denotes not available.

54 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 # Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003


Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

instruments such as bank savings deposits. known to process the enormous amount of
They also offer investors the option to diver- information necessary to make sound alloca-
sify across industries, thus improving their tion decisions. The result is irrational invest-
risk/return tradeoff. This is a better option ment patterns, further distortion due to
than putting all one’s savings into a small political influences over economic decisions,
business where one’s entire livelihood would and discrimination against smaller, younger
have to depend on the success of that particu- and innovative undertakings.
lar business. Securities markets create better opportun-
2. Help in resource allocation. In a market econ- ities for small emerging companies to raise
omy, issues of securities help raise capital for funds in the venture capital market since ven-
projects whose outputs are in the highest ture capitalists would be more comfortable
demand by society, and those enterprises investing in new ventures with the knowledge
which are most capable of raising productiv- that possible future divestment can take place
ity. Thus, efficient enterprise management is through a public offering at a potentially sub-
rewarded by access to investment funds. Secur- stantial profit.
ities prices serve as a means by which investors 3. Promote efficient financial system. Securities
express their confidence in enterprise prospects markets break the oligopoly that would be
and management. Without securities markets, enjoyed by the banks in the absence of secur-
companies must rely on internal resources ities markets. The government does not auto-
(retained earnings) for investment funds, on matically have privileged and subsidized
bank financing or on government grants or access to funds and must compete on equal
subsidies. Such forced reliance on self-finance terms. Securities markets provide impetus for
penalizes young companies whose products the establishment of financial prices based on
may have greater future demand. These new scarcity values rather than on administrative
and growing enterprises often have little in the fiat. Such market-determined financial prices
way of retained earnings. and investment options, in turn, attract more
Bank loans are an important source of cap- savings, creating a virtual circle of innovation
ital throughout the world, but are limited by and mobilization that contributes to the over-
the amount of deposits banks are able to all efficiency of the financial system.
mobilize. As a result, banks tend to be very 4. Help term transformation and improve capital
conservative in their lending policies, thereby structure. Healthy debt/equity ratios are
penalizing younger or emerging companies important for a robust economic system. Cor-
whose business risk is higher than those porations in many developing countries are
faced by established firms, and yet contribute undercapitalized. In the absence of equity
to the dynamism and future growth potential markets, debt/equity ratios inevitably rise.
of the economy through innovations. Thus, First, in growing companies, retained earnings
the role of the private sector is limited by the and fresh cash injections from the controlling
exclusion of this important segment from the shareholders usually cannot keep pace with
activity. the needs for more capital, thus slowing
Since banks in emerging economies are growth. Second, outside investors require
mostly owned and run by governments, they liquidity and some sense of security that can
extend loans to priority sectors in response to be provided only by an organized market-
government directives without due regard to place.
quality, and often at interest rates below the When active secondary markets for secur-
bank’s cost of funds. This leads to inefficient ities exist, savers can be induced to provide the
resource allocation and widespread loan delin- long-term funding that corporations seek
quencies. The prevalence of these problems because savers are assured that the markets
reduces the level of investments, productivity can provide them with liquidity. Thus, what
of capital and the volume of savings. is the equivalent of short-term investment for
Even if government grants and subsidies are the security purchaser is transformed into
available, they tend to introduce market long-term financing from the issuer’s perspect-
imperfections that contribute to the distortion ive. The more efficient matching of asset and
of financial prices. These imperfections sub- liability maturities that result means less
vert the positive allocation role of securities financial risk for companies and thus a more
markets. Governments generally are not stable economic environment in general.

# Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 55


A. Tessema

Moreover, the availability of equity capital Therefore, a government deficit does not
through the markets decreases the overall necessarily bring about an increase in money
debt/equity ratios of business, which may (in supply and thus inflation.
the absence of such financing) reach levels at Economies with only a commercial banking
which default risk outweighs the advantage of system have to conduct their monetary policy
increased leverage. and deficit financing through the banking sys-
5. Allow deconcentration of ownership. Equity tem. Open-market operation is not available.
sales provide for a wider participation in The only effective tools are direct credit con-
enterprise management and for a wider distri- trols, ceilings on loans and interest rates, as
bution of corporate profits. These factors well as reserve requirement manipulations.
would help allay the fear that a few individu- Also, deficit financing is carried out by either
als or groups linked to the ruling party borrowing directly from the central bank or
would dominate the private sector. Wider dis- by selling bonds to commercial banks. Conse-
tribution of corporate profits develops a gen- quently, deficit financing puts pressure on the
eral sense of ownership and an assumption of money supply and leads to inflationary pres-
responsibility on the part of the citizen. People sures. As a result, financial repression is com-
will now be united by their common defense mon in countries with banking-oriented
of their business interests, and ethnic and reli- financial systems. Full-scale financial sector
gious differences would gradually dissipate. reform (liberalization) may be impossible
6. Improve accounting and auditing standards. unless the economy has well-developed secur-
Securities purchasers rely in part on corporate ities markets.
information provided in financial reports to 8. Help privatization efforts. Public investments
make their investment decisions. The develop- vastly exceed private investments in transi-
ment of securities markets is usually accom- tional economies. Economists widely believe
panied by increased reporting standards and that privatization of state enterprises will
requirements, which contribute to the effi- reduce losses and create efficiency. However,
ciency of the markets and their mobilizing transitional economies generally lack the
and allocating functions. A regular disclosure financial infrastructure and the legal frame-
of adequate, reliable and timely information work to engender privatization efforts. Yet,
makes it possible to compare performance of these economies often like to privatize state
various companies. The development of enterprises. One of the most notable problems
widely accepted accounting procedures, associated with privatization of state enter-
checked by independent external auditors is prises is the lack of well-developed domestic
also an important benefit derived from the equity markets. An inadequate supply of cap-
development of securities markets. Availabil- ital due to low savings, low gross national
ity of good information helps corporations product and limited access to international
make better decisions and provides better stat- capital markets has been an impediment.
istics for economic policy makers. Good One of the main challenges for transitional
information may even help tax authorities economies is, therefore, to improve the quality
collect taxes in a more efficient and equitable of financial intermediation and resource allo-
fashion. The need for disclosure of financial cation to contribute to a more rapid rate of
information is a strong incentive for the economic growth that would lead to higher
improvement of accounting and auditing levels of savings and investments.
standards.
7. Provide effective tools for monetary and fiscal The establishment of securities markets would
policy. When an economy has well-developed ensure the existence of not only a primary market
securities markets, it can conduct monetary for the initial public offering but also a secondary
and fiscal policies through these markets. market for shares after firms have been pri-
The Anglo-American style economies conduct vatized. Without such markets, individual share
monetary policy through open-market opera- owners would be unable to adjust their portfolios
tions. These economies affect the market as required. This would increase the risk and
interest rate and money supply by buying uncertainty faced by investors, thus increasing
and selling securities in the open market. Gov- the cost of capital to firms issuing equity to
ernments in these countries can finance their raise capital. The marketability of shares is a
deficits by issuing bonds in the open market. key element in the ability of firms to attract

56 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 # Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003


Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

private investors who would have options to * the secondary market where trading in out-
liquidate their holdings. Securities markets devel- standing shares is done.
opment and privatization of state enterprises are
The specialized services of financial intermedi-
two sides of a coin in the sense that a government
aries in securities markets are costly, yet indis-
cannot hope to carry out meaningful privatiza-
pensable. The strategic position that financial
tion unless securities markets adequate enough to
intermediaries hold in the market system in
finance them exist.
terms of access to information and control
over transactions can lead to profiteering
behavior that decreases the benefits accruing
4. Costs and Environmental
from the mobilizing and allocating functions
Requirements for Securities Markets
of the securities markets system as a whole.
Development
The reporting requirements also represent
costs to participating firms. In addition,
The benefits of securities markets do not come
firms have incentives to falsify such reports,
without certain problems, which are inherent in
which result in distorted investment decisions
the system. Some of the costs inherent in secu-
on the part of securities purchasers that may
rities markets as discussed in the literature
lead to decreased government tax revenues.
include:
Such expenses related to the organization
1. Market cycles. During the early stages of and function of regulatory agencies as secur-
securities markets development the supply of ities commissions, stock exchanges and
stocks and bonds is limited, manipulation is administrative organs represent monitoring
relatively easy, investors are unsophisticated, costs associated with the control of securities
underwriters and brokers are inexperienced, markets abuses.
and securities legislation often has loopholes. 4. Income inequalities. While securities markets
As a result, economic cycles are more difficult provide wider investment choices for savers
to predict. Thus, the job of a financial analyst and also serve to spread ownership in compa-
would be very difficult during the early years nies, it is likely that in the initial stages of
of development. securities markets development, the benefits
2. Interest rate fluctuations. The fluctuations in of securities ownership will accrue to a limited
interest rates, which occur in a financially group of investors. According to Wai and
competitive environment, make planning more Patrick (1973), until a wide range of firms (in
difficult for both borrowers and savers. The terms of size) and savings units (in terms of
additional efforts required for information distribution of income and wealth) participate
gathering and decision making in such environ- in the securities markets directly or indirectly
ments, together with the need for borrowers (through mutual funds, pension funds, insur-
and savers to adjust their positions more ance companies, etc.), the development of the
frequently over time, constitute costs brought capital market, particularly the market for
about by a liberalized financial system. equities, is likely to increase the inequality of
3. Intermediation and regulation. The institutions income and wealth distribution. A vigorous
and individuals that constitute the securities program of wealth distribution through highly
markets fall into the following categories: progressive income taxation is one counter-
measure, although it is fraught with its own
* participants who are the savers and users of
problems.
capital (individuals, corporations and gov-
ernments);
* the financial institutions and intermediaries Obviously, each of these costs of securities mar-
that channel capital from savers to users; kets operation is significant and may have the
* supporting and supervisory entities which are potential to undermine the concomitant benefits
typically government bodies that facilitate through both economic and political reaction.
and regulate the activities of the participants. However, the experience of many countries in
introducing securities markets shows that the
The market itself has two levels:
existence or creation of certain political, econ-
* the primary market where newly issued omic, policy and institutional environments can
securities of newly created or existing enter- smooth the process of securities markets devel-
prises trade; opment for the following reasons:

# Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 57


A. Tessema

1. Political environment. Political uncertainty is tax exemptions or reductions for income


detrimental to any investment. Investors’ pro- derived from capital gains and/or dividends
jection of future political conditions, both from securities issued by publicly traded com-
domestic and international, directly affects panies; tax credits for owners of publicly
their willingness to invest in such risky finan- traded shares; tax deferral for dividends, inter-
cial assets as stocks and bonds. Government est and capital gains from securities purchased
stability and consistency in applying financial for retirement funds; and tax breaks for com-
and economic policies tends to increase invest- panies that list their shares on exchanges.
ors’ confidence and to increase the flows of While governments have important policy
capital from savers to productive investments. roles in the early stage of securities market
2. Economic environment. The key environmen- development, their future involvement should
tal factors for the success of securities markets be primarily catalytic and supervisory to create
include sufficient demand for and supply of a sense of confidence in the public about the
securities. Financial and commodities prices market.
that do not depart too much from scarcity 4. Institutional environment. Four related insti-
values and low or predictable inflation are tutional areas are very important for the suc-
necessary. Demand for securities depends on cess of securities markets. First, corporation
the amount of capital available for investment and securities laws are important for protect-
in the hands of individuals and institutions. In ing both the interests of companies and those
very low per capita income nations and where who purchase the securities they issue. Sec-
corporate investment funds are in short sup- ond, securities markets work most efficiently
ply, demand for securities cannot be expected when such intermediaries as brokers, dealers,
to be high. underwriters and the like are knowledgeable,
The degree of familiarity of potential invest- professional, skillful, honest, and have suffi-
ors with the securities markets operation cient resources to perform their functions.
affects demand. The existence of investment Third, legal or regulatory standards for these
alternatives affects both the demand for and professionals are important for the assurance
the supply of securities. Thus, bank deposit that financial intermediaries possess such qual-
interest rates, tax policies, and the capitaliza- ities. Enforcement of securities laws, account-
tion of securities markets are all considered by ing regulations, and professional standards
owners of capital when they make investment should be carried out by government securities
decisions. Investors must be convinced that and exchange agencies, or through the auspices
the risks of securities ownership are likely to of such self-regulating bodies as exchange
be offset by returns that sufficiently adjust for administration organizations. Fourth, account-
those risks as compared with more secure ing and auditing standards are necessary to
investments. provide comparable financial information.
The supply of securities is as important to This information is critical to making sound
the smooth operation of a market as the pre- investment decisions.
sence of demand for them. When too few
securities are available for purchase and trad- In summary, despite the impetus to economic
ing, it may be difficult to attract investors, growth that the development of securities mar-
who may doubt that a large enough market kets can provide, the costs associated with such
exists to ensure the liquidity of their invest- development can be substantial. The magnitude
ments. The result will be a shallow, sluggish of such costs and the capacity to manage them
market that does not perform its function. In depend on a complex set of factors in many
cases where demand for securities is high but spheres. The experience of a range of developing
few issues are available, securities prices may countries in instituting securities markets indi-
rise to unrealistic levels. Experts believe that a cates that their beneficial effects do not come
minimum number of issues required for the automatically, and that cyclic phases of develop-
successful institution of a stock market is 20 ment are the rule. Securities markets remain sens-
profitable companies (Wai and Patrick, 1973). itive to changes in the macro and micro-
3. Policy environment. To encourage develop- environments affecting issuers and purchasers.
ment of healthy securities markets, legal induce- The degree of government intervention in sup-
ments that affect the supply and demand for port of capital market development through fis-
securities are helpful. Such incentives include cal and monetary policies is critical.

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Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

Furthermore, the question of how much mar- ing investors with choices that induce them to
ket orientation of the economy as a whole is save and invest.
required in order for securities markets to play In the last ten years, Ethiopia has been in the
a beneficial role is uncertain, but clearly it must process of transforming itself from a centrally
be substantial. These observations must be kept planned to a market-oriented economic system.
firmly in mind as we now examine the environ- Early on, the government redefined its role in
ment for developing securities markets in Ethiopia. such a way that it would be engaged only in
regulatory aspects and strategic economic activ-
ities, while playing a primary role in creating an
5. Environment for Developing Securities enabling environment for the private sector.
Markets in Ethiopia In Ethiopia, public enterprises are being
restructured and some have been privatized. In
Research shows a strong positive correlation addition to privatization, commercialization of
between overall securities markets development state enterprises is underway. The government
and long-term economic growth and that the issued a series of investment proclamations
association is robust (see Levine and Zervos, (1992, 1996, 1998) with many incentives intended
1996). As a result, a worldwide movement exists to attract both domestic and international invest-
to encourage development of securities markets ors. The incentive package, however, does not
in developing countries and transitional econ- compare favorably with those found in many
omies of Eastern Europe, and countries of the developing countries, thus placing Ethiopia at a
former Soviet Union. competitive disadvantage (see Teklu, 1994).
In Africa, the African Capital Market Forum Moreover, the existing barriers to investment
(ACMF) is leading the effort assisted by the in Ethiopia are so great as to render the benefits
Organization of African Unity (OAU) and the provided in the proclamations immaterial to the
African Economic Commission, both headquar- investment decisions by investors. The most fre-
tered in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. At the 6th Con- quently cited complaints by potential investors
ference of African Finance Ministers in mid- have to do with the bureaucratic process. The
September of 1997 held in Addis Ababa, the working relations between the central and
ACMF and the inter-governmental group of regional governments do not seem to be clearly
experts discussed financial market development defined. As a result, potential investors run into
and integration in the African continent. The many obstacles in getting access to land, power
participants made several strong recommenda- and telecommunications services. This may be
tions including developing stock exchanges in one of the reasons why the number of investment
Africa and integrating them. They endorsed the projects implemented by the business community
idea of regional exchanges that would allow is far below the number of licenses issued. For-
member states access to a much larger pool of mulation of favorable policies and issuance of
external funds besides increasing mobilization of regulations alone are not sufficient to encourage
domestic capital. Of course, these changes call private sector activities. A faulty implementation
for harmonizing security laws and accounting puts the finest blueprints into disarray. Further-
and auditing standards. more, some aspects of the proclamations limit
For its part, the Ethiopian government has the areas of investment by foreigners. The latest
been studying the possibilities of developing a proclamation (1998) addresses some of these limi-
stock exchange. The government has sent a dele- tations, and allows foreign investors to invest in
gation of experts from the National Bank of energy projects, telecommunications and the
Ethiopia to some African and Asian countries transport industry.
to see how securities markets operate. Pressure Ethiopia needs massive investment to upgrade
also may be coming from the International its road network, supply of energy, water and
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to telecommunication services to provide the neces-
open up the economy by developing securities sary infrastructure to potential investors. These
markets. As recently as September 1998, a panel are areas, perhaps, in which foreign investors
discussion organized by the Addis Ababa Cham- with capital as well as new technology should
ber of Commerce underscored the need to be invited to participate. Investments in those
develop a stock exchange in Ethiopia. The major infrastructures would create employment
panel highlighted the need to look beyond the opportunities for those who would be laid off as
banking system for additional capital by provid- state enterprises are restructured and privatized,

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A. Tessema

and thus alleviate the problem that would be The government, instead of adding universities
encountered when the breadwinner in an by opening one in each regional state, should
extended family loses his/her job which is typical strengthen the national university and expand
in countries like Ethiopia. intermediate schools for high school graduates
Ethiopia also needs to overhaul its educational (who could not make it to college) to learn
system in such a way that it addresses the coun- some skills they could use. Thus, a skilled labor
try’s manpower need. The current system is elitist force would be readily available and would be
and does not prepare students for anything other attractive to foreign investors coming to the
than entering the university. High school gradu- country.
ates are functionally illiterate. If they do not Although the 1998 Investment Proclamation
make it to college, they simply have to join the Act expands the areas in which foreign invest-
ranks of the unemployed. The magnitude of this ment is encouraged, foreigners are still not
problem is exacerbated by the percentage of high allowed to invest in the financial sector. Ethi-
school graduates who do not make it to college. opian law forbids any foreigner, including a for-
For instance, 160,000 students took the college eign bank, to own shares in an Ethiopian bank.
admission test during the 1997/98 academic year The law also forbids foreign banks from con-
and only 12,000 (less than 8 per cent) made it. ducting any banking activities in Ethiopia. This
The remaining 148,000 will be added to the isolation of the Ethiopian banking system from
already bloated unemployed work force. Ethio- the international banking community has per-
pia would have a competitive advantage of low haps the most important and far-reaching of the
wages and a large labor force if its labor force several consequences emanating from the restric-
were trained properly. tions upon foreign investment imposed by the
Higher education continues to be the respons- Ethiopian government. By denying foreigners
ibility of the central government while primary any role in the Ethiopian banking industry, the
and secondary schools are run by the regional government has closed an obvious source of
governments. Education in Ethiopia for the most much-needed capital for banks.
part is still free to students. The Addis Ababa Perhaps more significantly, the government
University (AAU) system is the largest in Ethi- has also closed an important source of impartial
opia and one of the oldest universities in Africa. information to potential foreign investors. Many
Its graduates have proven without any doubt investors, especially those who are new to a
that they could compete at a global level and country or region, rely upon their international
make it in any field imaginable. banks not only for banking services but also for
Newer colleges in the various parts of the information. For most businesses contemplating
country are being elevated to universities for starting operations in a foreign country in which
what seems to be political reasons. The national they have not previously invested, an important
university (AAU) operates under conditions of part of their due diligence investigation is an
overcrowded classrooms, deteriorating physical appraisal of the investment environment and
facilities, lack of resources for such things as the general business climate.
textbooks, reference materials, computers, A local branch of their bank can usually be
laboratory equipment and consumables. Lack trusted to provide the kind of information an
of textbooks, reference materials and the inabil- investor needs about the practical realities (as
ity to make copies of handouts for students have opposed to the theoretical legal opportunities)
been major impediments to effective teaching. of the local business climate. Because of its con-
Faculty members have to learn to improvise tacts with the local business community, the local
and make do with minimal resources. Given the branch of a potential investor’s bank can also
relatively high cost of establishing and operating perform a second valuable function by finding
universities, it would not be in the country’s and evaluating particular investment opportun-
interest to add universities when the existing ities. Ethiopia deprives foreign investors of these
one is suffering from lack of adequate support, services from their international banks.
financial or otherwise. This simply diverts If a potential foreign investor is unable to get
resources from Addis Ababa University, affect- information from their bank, they must rely
ing the quality of its programs. upon the government’s investment promoters
Lack of a skilled labor force has been cited as and other local sources which have interests
one of the reasons why foreign investors are not which differ from those of the foreign investor.
attracted to developing countries like Ethiopia. Information from these sources not only lacks

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Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

the impartiality which an investor expects of their ber of companies whose shares are publicly
international bank, but these national sources are traded and a variety of individuals and institu-
unable to perform a comparative analysis which can tional investors). When too few stocks and bonds
assist the investor to determine in which country, are available for purchase and trading, it may be
among many possibilities, to make an investment. difficult to attract investors who may doubt the
Similarly, the restriction upon foreign insur- existence of a large enough market to insure
ance companies and upon foreign investment in liquidity. On the other hand, in a very low per
Ethiopian insurance companies also deprives the capita income country like Ethiopia and where
country of badly needed capital. Another effect investment funds are in short supply, demand for
of these restrictions in the financial sectors of the stocks and bonds cannot be expected to be high.
economy is that foreign banking and insurance * Absence of input by the business community
businesses do not establish branches or subsid- in the formulation of economic policy by the
iaries in Ethiopia in which Ethiopians can receive government (there is no mechanism in place to
training in the latest techniques and procedures solicit input from the business community).
and thereby develop skills needed both by them
Many prospects (opportunities) for developing
and by the country. This increases the difficulty
securities markets exist in Ethiopia:
of every investor because it inhibits the growth of
a pool of skilled personnel. * Ethiopia has considerable unexploited
The financial sector requires highly skilled resources. Ethiopia’s known natural resources
manpower to undertake the vast range of tasks include gold, platinum, tantalum, soda ash,
needed to mobilize and allocate resources as potash and natural gas. Except for gold,
effectively as possible. It also needs help from none of these resources has been exploited on
the government. The role of the government a large scale. Ethiopia also has considerable
should take the form of regulations to monitor unexploited fertile land. Agriculture plays a
and enhance bank solvency and limit finance key role in the economy, although the country
sector instability. Building the confidence of the still uses primitive technology and the climate
general public in the operation of the capital is subject to recurrent droughts due to irregu-
market in general, and securities markets in particu- lar rain.
lar, is a critical aspect of development of capital * Ethiopia, with over 60 million people (second
markets. A well-functioning private sector enhances most populous in sub-Saharan Africa), pro-
the development of securities markets. vides one of the largest potential markets in
Developing securities markets in Ethiopia face Africa.
several direct challenges: * Ethiopia’s process of transition from a cen-
trally planned to a market-oriented economic
* Low level of public awareness about securities system and the process of economic liberaliza-
markets (the degree of awareness by potential tion underway is encouraging.
investors of investments in stocks and bonds * The privatization efforts going on would help
affects demand for securities). with the supply problems, particularly if a
* Lack of public confidence in share investment public offering of shares is used as the method
(after 17 years of socialism, there is neither the of privatization.
tradition nor the trust in share companies). * The existence of many profitable companies,
* Lack of institutional capacity to facilitate which can potentially benefit from floating
securities trading. shares to the public.
* The underdeveloped state of the bond (debt) * The existence of institutions like the country’s
market due to the historical prominence of Pension Fund, insurance companies, credit
bank financing. unions, etc., with large sums of money. If
* A low level of private sector development and a allowed to invest, they would boost the
low level of market orientation in the economy demand for securities.
(there is still government interference in the * The gradual improvements of the incentive
market). packages in the successive investment proclam-
* Easy access to loans by wealthy and financially ations help attract new investors including
sophisticated Ethiopians, and probably those Ethiopians with foreign passports.
with a strong link to the party ruling the country. * The debate going on in academics, the busi-
* Problems with the supply and demand for ness community at large and the government
securities at least initially (a reasonable num- circle is encouraging.

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A. Tessema

6. Conclusion and Recommendations demand and supply of stocks. Demand for stocks
depends on the amount of capital available for
One of the main challenges for developing coun- investment in the hands of individuals and insti-
tries like Ethiopia is to improve the quality of tutions. The supply depends on the number of
financial intermediation and resource allocation companies willing to list their company to trade
to contribute to a more rapid rate of economic shares publicly.
growth. Recent developments in sub-Saharan The first and foremost task in increasing the
Africa hint at benefits to be gained as a result demand for securities is to educate the public
of opportunities from the domestic capital mar- about securities markets using the public
ket. More than a dozen African countries have media. Organize forums where the business
now put in place stock exchanges. community and the general public can learn
At the same time, the interest in emerging about the benefits and costs of investing in
stock markets by international investors is securities markets. At the same time improve
increasing largely due to the possibilities of the political and legal environment in order to
above average long-term capital gains. In Ethi- build the confidence first of the domestic busi-
opia, bank-based financing of investments is still ness community and then of the international
prevalent. Such a system leads to a greater degree investors.
of control over the private sector by a relatively A legal system which not only allows for a
small group of agents. This stricture could be clear definition of the rights and responsibilities
avoided by putting more reliance on market- of the contracting parties, but also provides for
based financing. Reliance on debt financing, on cost effective enforcement of covenants. Through
the other hand, has weakened domestic entrepre- its regulatory power, the government can do
neurship and has favored government or family much to reduce uncertainty by increasing infor-
group ownership with excessive debt ratios. To mation flows, by punishing those who engage in
avail capital to the most productive enterprises, forbidden activities, and by taking measures to
there seem to be strong arguments for developing enhance investor confidence. The securities laws
an equity market in Ethiopia as an alternative to may be copied from countries with situations
debt financing. Unlike banks, equity investors similar to Ethiopia.
will share in both the benefits and costs of risky Another way of creating demand for
projects (enterprises) and, unlike banks, their securities is lifting all the legal restrictions
return is not limited to a fixed interest rate but from institutional investors like the largest gov-
will rise with the profitability of an enterprise. ernment pension fund, public and private
Ethiopia is in the midst of economic transfor- insurance companies and credit unions so that
mation from a centralized to a market economy. they can fully participate in the securities
A successful transformation requires gradual markets.
development of the capital markets to support As far as the supply side is concerned, move-
economic activities. International experience ment towards active private sector development,
shows that no universal blueprint or model can in conjunction with enabling privatization
address every country’s needs. This suggests the programs and liberalization of trade and capital
need for flexibility in the choice of methods in flows, will help boost the supply of securities.
economic reform that must take into account the The Ethiopian government can help this process
unique features of a country, particularly in by using public offering of shares in future
terms of the level of economic development and privatizations of state enterprises. Although
administrative capacity. The success also the lack of dependable financial data poses
depends on how carefully it is implemented, as valuation problems, public offering of shares as
there is much potential for good or bad. It takes a modality of privatization would result in broad
time to develop the country’s rudimentary insti- ownership of firms. Broad ownership of firms
tutional infrastructure to run the operations of would give citizens a stake in the country’s
securities markets. economy, thus reducing the resistance generated
The following recommendations are suggested. by the discomfort of the layoffs due to privatiza-
They should not be taken as a blueprint but tion and the suspicion that state enterprises are
rather as a general road map, which can be being sold to individuals or groups with political
revised as experiences are gained. links to the ruling party. Other private firms may
The successful development of securities also benefit from going public. The advanced
markets requires the existence of sufficient nations have a number of reasons why firms in

62 R&D Management 15, 1, 2003 # Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003


Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia

general consider going public. Among these Securities markets work most efficiently when
reasons are: brokers, dealers and the like are knowledgeable,
professional, skillful, honest, and have sufficient
* availability of significant funds for such pur-
training and resources to perform these func-
poses as working capital requirements, devel-
tions. The government, among other things,
opment of new products, expansion of existing
should permit private and state banks to act as
ones, paying off debt and for research and
market makers until such time that the stock
development activities;
exchanges start issuing licenses to dealers and
* a publicly traded company is in a more favor-
brokers. The government should enlist the ser-
able situation to finance acquisitions with its
vices of the International Finance Corporation
own stock as an alternative to using cash;
(IFC) for operational and technical advice in
* issuance of equity would help expand debt
training government staff and staff of financial
capacity thus allowing the firm to access
institutions (e.g. accountants, financial analysts
more readily available sources of debt at
and lawyers) responsible for the operational,
attractive interest rates.
supervisory and regulatory aspects of securities
Many of these advantages also exist for com- markets activities. This would help in upgrading
panies going public in Ethiopia. Experts believe the quality in terms of technical skills and analyt-
that the minimum number of issues required for ical capacity of the personnel in the securities
the successful institution of a stock market is 20, markets business.
each representing a ‘float’ of 25 per cent of enter- Furthermore, substantial banking sector
prise capital (see Van Agtamael, 1984, p. 45). reform, including privatization of the largest
Ethiopia definitely has more than 20 profitable commercial bank, is necessary. It is also import-
firms that can pay more in dividends than what ant to enhance the authority and capacity of the
banks currently pay in interest. central bank in order to improve the health and
Reducing government securities-holding competitiveness of the financial sector. For the
requirements by banks and savings institutions National Bank of Ethiopia to fulfill its role as the
would encourage government agencies and state monetary and supervisory authority more effect-
enterprises to issue bonds to raise capital in the ively, its authority and capabilities may have to
open market by offering attractive rates. The be considerably enhanced by ensuring greater
banks and savings institutions would then be autonomy and improving its technical capacity.
able to invest in the securities markets, thus A vigorous and independent regulatory body is
creating demand. In order to avoid bank runs, essential for conducting monetary policy through
however, the government, through its regulation, open-market operations and purely on economic
may limit the equity participation by banks and considerations.
savings institutions to protect depositors. Other The dissemination of market information is
measures the government should take to encour- another integral part of securities markets devel-
age public ownership of private firms include tax opment. Since the competition among developing
exemptions or reductions for income derived countries to attract foreign capital is very intense,
from capital gains and/or dividends from stocks there is a need to make concerted efforts to dis-
issued by publicly traded companies. seminate market information to potential invest-
Most importantly, the government should ors abroad. A coherent and integrated strategy to
help in the development of the debt market market the country based on providing pertinent
by expanding auction programs for treasury and timely information to the international
bills, and federal investment bonds, together investors would help attract direct and indirect
with the development of a framework for pri- (portfolio investment through an Ethiopian
mary dealer networks in the secondary market. country fund) investments and invigorate the
Along with the public debt market, the corpor- securities markets.
ate debt market, which will expand financing
options for private enterprises, needs to be
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Conference on Privatization and Public Enterprise tiable forms that are issued by corporations and
Reform in Ethiopia, pp. 181–99. governments through financial institutions directly
to individuals and different holders.
2. Capital markets include both securities markets and
Notes ‘non-securities markets’. Non-securities markets
provide non-negotiable medium- and long-term
1. Securities markets are markets that provide med- debt funds through financial institutions such as
ium- and long-term equity and debt funds in nego- commercial banks and savings and loan institutions.

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