26 Feb 2024 Monday

BRIEFING REPORT - 053
The briefing report encompasses crucial overnight and global market developments, offering readers
insights for well-informed trade decisions. It seamlessly integrates technical with fundamentals, enabling
readers to discern hidden signals in the news.
| https://marketinvestopedia.com
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
Euro & U.S. Session Market Investopedia Briefing Report Monday, 26th Feb 2024
Economic Events for today: -

 Released Data:
 Pending to be release:
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
FX Option Expiries Analysis - February 26, 2024
1. EUR/USD Expiries:
 1.0600 (631m):
 Impact Example: If EUR/USD is below 1.0600, there might be efforts to push it above this level
to avoid option losses.
 1.0700 (1.3b) and 1.0750 (1.3b):
 Impact Example: Large expiries at these levels suggest a gravitational pull. Traders may position
themselves to align with these levels.
2. USD/CAD Expiries:
 1.3450 (727m) and 1.3515 (525m):
 Impact Example: Options concentrated around 1.3450 and 1.3515 could act as support/resistance.
Traders may observe price reactions near these levels.
3. NZD/USD Expiry:
 0.5975 (380m):
 Impact Example: A significant expiry at 0.5975 may attract price movements toward this level,
potentially influencing market sentiment.
4. EUR/GBP Expiry:
 0.8475 (520m):
 Impact Example: The concentration of options at 0.8475 suggests a potential focal point for
EUR/GBP movements, with traders adjusting positions accordingly.
Key Takeaways for Traders:

 Option Pinning: Expectation of prices gravitating towards large expiry levels.
 Support/Resistance: Options can act as psychological levels impacting trader decisions.
 Intraday Strategies: Traders may adjust strategies based on approaching option expiries.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
Insights into the Euro/Pound Dynamics Ahead of ECB Lagarde’s Speech
Overview: EUR/GBP makes a notable rebound, reaching near 0.8540 after a three-day decline. The rise is attributed to
hawkish comments from ECB officials and economic indicators affecting both the Euro (EUR) and the Pound Sterling (GBP).
Let's delve into the factors influencing this currency pair.
1. Hawkish ECB Comments:
 Yannis Stournaras' Remarks (Rate Cut in June):

 Impact Example: Stournaras' anticipation of a rate cut in June elevates confidence in the Euro, providing
support to EUR/GBP.
 Joachim Nagel's Caution (Data-Driven Decisions):
 Impact Example: Nagel's emphasis on data-driven decisions signals a measured approach, impacting
market sentiment positively.
2. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts:
 Impact Example: Maintaining caution on rate cuts in the meeting accounts contributes to the Euro's strength
against the Pound.
3. UK Consumer Confidence and PMI Data:
 Impact Example: Lower UK consumer confidence weakens the Pound, creating a favorable environment for
EUR/GBP appreciation.
 MUFG Bank's Analysis: Recognizing the potential end of the technical recession in the UK, indicating factors
influencing the Pound's performance.
Upcoming Catalyst: ECB President Lagarde’s Speech:
 Anticipation Example: Traders eagerly await Lagarde’s speech for potential insights into the ECB's future monetary
policy stance.
 ECB Tone Impact: Hawkish comments contribute to Euro strength.

 Economic Signals: UK data and global risk sentiment influence Pound dynamics.
 Market Watch: Lagarde’s speech could provide further clarity on Eurozone monetary policy.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
Examining the Forces Shaping NZD/USD Movements

Overview: NZD/USD experiences a pullback, moving away from a recent multi-week high in the wake of a strengthened US
Dollar (USD) and various global factors impacting risk sentiment. This analysis dissects the elements influencing the pair's
dynamics.
1. USD Strength and Fed's Stance:
 FOMC Meeting Minutes:
 Impact Example: Late January minutes signal the Fed's reluctance to cut rates, supporting USD and
pressuring NZD/USD.
 Hawkish Fed Remarks:
 Impact Example: Recent comments reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, influencing Treasury yields
and USD strength.
2. Geopolitical and Global Tensions:
 Impact Example: Risk-off sentiment, fueled by China-Taiwan tensions and geopolitical conflicts, contributes to a
shift away from the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
3. RBNZ Meeting Anticipation:
 Impact Example: Investors exercise caution ahead of the RBNZ meeting, adjusting positions based on potential
policy shifts.
4. US Macro Data Influence:
 Upcoming Impact Example: Anticipation for Prelim Q4 GDP and Core PCE Price Index shapes expectations on
future Fed decisions and drives USD movements.
Market Sentiment Consideration:
 Risk Aversion: Geopolitical tensions contribute to a risk-off environment, impacting NZD as a risk-sensitive
currency.
Key Focus Ahead: US New Home Sales Data:
 Anticipation Example: Traders look to the US New Home Sales data for short-term opportunities during the North
American session.
Trader's Watchlist:
 Fed Dynamics: Monitor Fed communications and data influencing interest rate expectations.
 Global Risks: Stay attuned to geopolitical developments impacting risk sentiment.
 RBNZ Meeting: Assess the RBNZ's stance and potential policy shifts.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
Understanding the Dynamics of USD/CAD Amidst Shifting Forces

Overview: USD/CAD experiences upward momentum, reaching 1.3512 in the early Asian session. The rise is attributed to a
firmer US Dollar (USD), divergent inflation data, and market sentiment. Let's dissect the key factors influencing this
currency pair.
1. USD Demand and Inflation Divergence:
 Cooling Canadian CPI (2.9%):
 Impact Example: Slower-than-expected Canadian inflation raises speculation about potential rate cuts,
influencing USD/CAD buyers.
 Fed's Hawkish Stance (Delaying Rate Cuts):
 Impact Example: Fed's Waller advocating for delaying rate cuts supports the USD, contributing to
USD/CAD's upward movement.
2. Oil Price Influence:
 Impact Example: Decline in oil prices, a significant factor for the Canadian economy, weighs on the loonie and aids
USD/CAD recovery.
3. Upcoming Economic Indicators:
 Anticipation Example: Investors await Canadian Current Account and US Q4 GDP for fresh market direction.
 Upcoming Events: Focus on Canadian GDP and US Q4 Core PCE for potential market-shifting data.
Key Considerations for Traders:
 Inflation Dynamics: Canadian inflation slowdown prompts speculation about BoC's future moves.
 USD Support: Hawkish Fed comments contribute to USD strength against the Canadian dollar.
 Oil Impact: Oil price decline puts pressure on the commodity-linked loonie.
Market Outlook:
 Focus on Data Releases: Eyes on Canadian and US economic indicators for potential impact on USD/CAD.
 Event Risk: Anticipate market reactions to Canadian GDP and US Core PCE data later in the week.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
DXY; DAILY
DXY; H1
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
SCREENER
BASE STRONG WEAK BULLISH IMPORTANT BEARISH IMPORTANT LEVELS

AGAINST AGAINST SCRIPT LEVELS SCRIPT
BASE BASE
USD JPY NZD NZDUSD USDJPY
EUR JPY NZD EURNZD EURJPY
GBP JPY NZD GBPNZD GBPJPY
AUD JPY NZD AUDNZD AUDJPY
CAD JPY NZD NZDCAD CADJPY
NZD JPY NZDJPY
Forex and Gold Weekly Overview: Key Developments and Market Outlook
1. USD/JPY Stability Above 150.00: BoJ Policy Uncertainty Persists

 Current Status: USD/JPY maintains stability above 150.00, registering gains for the fourth consecutive
week.
 Upcoming Event: Attention on January National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Japan.
 Market Sentiment: Japanese Yen bears cautious amid reduced bets for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy shift.
2. EUR/USD Consolidation After Thursday Surge: ECB Annual Report Debate
 Posture: EUR/USD loses bullish momentum, consolidates above 1.0800.
 Upcoming Event: ECB President Lagarde to participate in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report
2022.
 Market Sentiment: Euro traders await insights into ECB's future strategies.
3. GBP/USD Gains Amid BoE Chief Economist Speech: Holding Above 1.2650
 Performance: GBP/USD rises for four consecutive days, maintaining levels above 1.2650.
 Upcoming Event: BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill's speech expected to influence market sentiment.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
 Market Sentiment: Pound Sterling buoyed by recent gains, eyes on BoE insights.
4. AUD/USD Stability: Focus on Australian CPI Data

 Weekly Movement: AUD/USD rises 0.5%, stabilizes around 0.6550.
 Upcoming Event: Attention on Australia's monthly CPI data for January.
 Market Sentiment: Australian Dollar steadies against a stable US Dollar.
5. NZD/USD Retreats Ahead of RBNZ Decision: Testing 0.6150 Support
 Recent Movement: NZD/USD retreats towards 0.6150, meeting resistance near 0.6200.
 Upcoming Event: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decisions on the horizon.
 Market Sentiment: Kiwi under pressure, awaiting central bank's stance.
6. Gold Consolidates Above $2,030: Fed Rate Cut Bets Delayed
 Gold Performance: XAU/USD in consolidation phase above $2,030.
 Market Dynamics: Gold benefits from falling US yields, keeps red below a two-week peak.
 Outlook: Delayed Fed rate cut expectations influence gold prices.

 USD/JPY stability amid BoJ uncertainty.
 EUR/USD consolidation post-Thursday surge.
 GBP/USD gains influenced by BoE and Chief Economist speech.
 AUD/USD and NZD/USD dynamics tied to upcoming economic data and central bank decisions.
 Gold's consolidation linked to delayed Fed rate cut bets.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Pressured by Delayed Fed Rate Cut Bets, Downside Limited
1. US Dollar's First Weekly Decline of 2024 Boosts Gold Price

 Impact: Increased demand for safe-haven assets lifts Gold to over a two-week high.
 Reasoning: USD registers its first weekly decline, prompting investors to turn to traditional safe-havens.
2. Growing Conviction of Delayed Fed Rate Cut Limits Gold's Appreciation
 Analysis: Belief that Fed will wait until June before cutting rates suppresses Gold's upward momentum.
 Insight: January FOMC minutes reveal policymakers await greater confidence in falling inflation before
considering rate cuts.
3. Hawkish Fed Officials Suggest Imminent Rate Cuts Unlikely
 Key Points: Prominent Fed members indicate reluctance towards immediate rate cuts to achieve 2%
inflation target.
 Significance: Fed's hawkish outlook supports US Treasury bond yields, acts as tailwind for USD.
4. Geopolitical Concerns Add Support to Safe-Haven Assets
 Backdrop: Conflicts in Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war contribute to investor unease.
 Relevance: Israel plans to expand operations against Hamas, while Russia prepares new offensive against
Ukraine.
5. US and UK Fighter Planes Strike Houthi Sites in Yemen
 Event: Joint strikes respond to sustained Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in Red Sea.
 Impact: Geopolitical tensions escalate, further bolstering demand for safe-haven assets.
6. Investors Await Key US Macro Data for Fed Policy Clues
 Focus: This week's Core PCE Price Index to provide insights into Fed's future policy decisions.
 Implication: Market awaits data release before making fresh directional bets on Gold.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
Key Takeaways for Investors:

 USD decline prompts demand for safe-haven assets, boosting Gold.
 Belief in delayed Fed rate cuts limits Gold's upward movement.
 Hawkish Fed stance supports USD, impacting Gold prices.
 Geopolitical tensions elevate demand for safe-havens like Gold.
 Investors await US macro data for further market direction.
Technical Analysis: Gold Price Bulls Maintain Upper Hand; $2,024 Horizontal Support Crucial
1. Caution for Bulls Despite Failure to Sustain Above 50-day SMA:
 Observation: Inability to establish above 50-day SMA prompts caution among bullish traders.
 Implication: Moderate pullback from $2,041-2,042 hurdle suggests a need for vigilance.
2. Oscillators Support Near-Term Gains:
 Analysis: Daily chart oscillators gaining positive traction.
 Significance: Supports the outlook for additional near-term gains.
3. Key Support at $2,024 Horizontal Level:
 Highlight: $2,024 horizontal support holds significance.
 Role: Failure to hold may expose 100-day SMA at $2,007 and $2,000 psychological mark.
4. Bearish Scenario if $2,024 Support Breaks:
 Scenario: Convincing break below $2,024 may expose further downside.
 Targets: 100-day SMA at $2,007, psychological level of $2,000, and $1,984 region.
5. Bullish Confirmation Above $2,041-2,042 Area:
 Condition: Bulls await a move beyond Friday's swing high.
 Target: Aiming to challenge $2,065 supply zone.
6. Extended Bullish Move Targets $2,100 Mark:
 Outlook: Successful breach of $2,041-2,042 may set the stage for further gains.
 Objective: Reclaiming $2,100 round figure mark, unexplored since early December 20
Conclusion for Traders: Bulls maintain control, but caution warranted with failure above 50-day SMA.
Oscillators support near-term gains, while $2,024 horizontal support remains crucial. A break below may trigger
bearish momentum, targeting $2,000 and $1,984. Conversely, a bullish confirmation above $2,041-2,042 could
pave the way for an extended move towards the $2,065 supply zone and potentially the $2,100 mark.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
GOLG; WEEKLY CAHRT
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
China Hits Back at US, Accusing 'False Accusations' - What it Means for Your Investments
Background: The U.S. recently released a report accusing China of not playing fair in world trade. It claimed
China had created 'overcapacity,' basically producing more than needed. Now, China is hitting back, saying the
accusations are false and reflecting the U.S.'s pushy behavior.
What You Need to Know:
1. What's the Big Deal?
 The U.S. is upset, thinking China is making too much stuff, which can affect global trade. China
disagrees and thinks the U.S. is just being a bit of a bully.
2. Why Does it Matter to You?
 This dispute between two economic giants can have a ripple effect on the world economy. If
tensions rise, it might impact the value of currencies, like the Aussie Dollar (AUD/USD).
3. What China Said:
 China's Commerce Ministry said the U.S. is not appreciating all the good things China is doing for
world trade. They feel the U.S. is ignoring their efforts and being a bit mean.
4. The Patrols Near Taiwan:
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
 China is also sending more patrols near Taiwan's islands. It's like saying, "We're watching what
you're doing." This adds more tension to the situation.
5. Impact on AUD/USD:
 The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is feeling the heat. It's losing value, probably because investors
get nervous when big countries argue. It's like people selling off things when they sense trouble.
What Can You Do?
Imagine you're in a market, and two sellers (U.S. and China) are having a disagreement. It makes everyone else a
bit uneasy. If you're trading, you might want to keep an eye on how currencies like the Aussie Dollar react. It's
like watching the waves before deciding to swim.
Example: Think of it like friends arguing over who gets to play with a toy. The arguing makes everyone
uncomfortable, and you might hesitate to join the game until things calm down.
Key Takeaway: When big countries clash, it's like thunder in the financial world. It might be a good time to be
cautious with your investments until the storm passes.
Remember, in the trading world, it's not just about numbers; it's
also about understanding the stories behind them.
LEARNING BANK:
3] WOLFE WAVE PATTERN
Wolfe Wave patterns were first identified by Bill Wolfe and his son, Brian.
According to Wolfe, they occur naturally in all markets. To recognize them, traders must
identify a series of price oscillations that correspond to specific criteria:
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA
 The waves must cycle at a consistent time interval.
 The third and fourth waves must stay within the channel created by the first and
second waves.
 The third and fourth waves must show symmetry with the first and second waves.
In a Wolfe Wave pattern, the fifth wave breaks out of the channel. According to the theory
behind the pattern, a line drawn from the point at the beginning of the first wave and
passing through the beginning of the fourth wave predicts a target price for the end of the
fifth wave. If a trader properly identifies a Wolfe Wave as it forms, the beginning of the fifth
wave represents an opportunity to take a long or short position. The target price predicts
the end of the wave, and therefore the point at which the trader aims to profit off the
position.
mARKET INVESTOPEDIA

26 Feb 2024 Monday

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

You might also like

26 Feb 2024 Monday

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

26 Feb 2024 Monday

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

BRIEFING REPORT - 053

Economic Events for today: -

Key Takeaways for Traders:

1. Hawkish ECB Comments:

 Yannis Stournaras' Remarks (Rate Cut in June):

2. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts:

3. UK Consumer Confidence and PMI Data:

Upcoming Catalyst: ECB President Lagarde’s Speech:

Key Takeaways for Traders:

 ECB Tone Impact: Hawkish comments contribute to Euro strength.

Examining the Forces Shaping NZD/USD Movements

Understanding the Dynamics of USD/CAD Amidst Shifting Forces

BASE STRONG WEAK BULLISH IMPORTANT BEARISH IMPORTANT LEVELS

1. USD/JPY Stability Above 150.00: BoJ Policy Uncertainty Persists

4. AUD/USD Stability: Focus on Australian CPI Data

Key Takeaways for Traders:

1. US Dollar's First Weekly Decline of 2024 Boosts Gold Price

Key Takeaways for Investors:

GOLG; WEEKLY CAHRT

You might also like