Matthew Howard

METEO 482
Case F: John Wetfoot Forensic Report
Introduction:
In late September 2021, John Wetfoot filed an insurance claim for $10,000 in damage to
his basement because he claimed it was flooded during the early morning of September 23, 2021.
He purchased a special insurance rider, including damage coverage up to $10,000 because of
flooding from non-tropical cyclones. The insurance company was in no rush and denied his
claim. Mr. Wetfoot’s lawyer asked me how much rain fell between September 20th and the early
morning of the 23rd. His lawyer would also like to know if a tropical cyclone caused this
flooding event and the reasoning behind it.
Data Sources:
The Storm Event Database shows storm damage reports, as noted in Attachment 1.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Radar data determined if flooding
occurred, used in Attachment 2. The WPC Surface Analysis map in Attachment 3 analyzes
weather stations and shows different types of fronts. Attachment 4 shows COOP data from State
College’s Walker Building, which was useful in determining how much precipitation fell over
those few days. Attachment 5 shows a secondary station from Weather Stem, showing the
rainfall amounts for Beaver Stadium. The National Hurricane Center’s Storm Track Map of 2021
was critical in finding if a confirmed tropical cyclone affected State College during the event
period, as shown in Attachment 6. Attachment 7 shows the METAR code for KUNV (State
College Airport Weather Observation Site) for the hourly weather conditions, precipitation
amounts, wind speed, and wind direction. The KUNV METAR provides time in UTC.
Attachment 8 shows the daily weather map for September 21st, while Attachment 9 portrays the
daily weather map for the 23rd. Attachments 10 , 11, and 12 show the distances to all weather-
observing sites from Sunrise Terrace.
Data Limitations:
We do not know the rainfall amounts at the incident site, Sunrise Terrace. There are other
precipitation sites that were included in this report, including KUNV, Walker Building’s COOP
site, and Beaver Stadium’s weather data. Although there are weather observations, inaccurate
reports and measurements are a problem as they can be over or underestimated. We also do not
know how much precipitation KUNV received because it does not report precipitation. It also
misses observation times, which could result in some missing data. One last piece that is
important to note is that storm reports from the Storms Event Database do not represent the
entire picture, as some people may not report storm events.
Methodology:
I assumed that the rainfall amounts from the COOP site, the airport, and Beaver
Stadium’s Weather Stem site were important data sources for situation specifics. The distance
between the incident site to weather data ranged up to KUNV’s site of 4.41 miles. Beaver
Stadium is 1.74 miles from the incident site. Sunrise Terrace is about 4600 ft from State
College’s other observing site north of the Walker Building. Daily temperature and precipitation
observations are taken at Walker Building’s COOP site. Temperatures are included at this site,
but not important for this incident. The National Weather Service’s COOP Observations follow
these rules when recording precipitation
(https://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01013015curr.pdf). I used KUNV for indicating
hourly weather conditions. Since the COOP site was closer compared to KUNV, I assumed
COOP data to be more favorable.
Weather Summary:
A weathermaker brought rounds of showers and downpours to the State College region.
Even though there was no precipitation until later September 21st, rounds of steady rain moved
through the area during the day and night of September 22nd. The rain was because of a cold
front, as indicated on the surface maps. Local weather observations showed a change in wind
direction as the front advanced through Pennsylvania. The State College METAR indicates a
change in wind direction by the morning of September 23rd. The wind speeds indicated are in
miles/hour and show that breezy conditions followed the front.
Beaver Stadium reported 1.72 inches of rain between September 21st and 23rd. Walker
Building’s COOP Data is even closer to the incident in question. 2.82 inches of rain fell between
7 am September 21st and September 23rd at Walker Building’s COOP site. This set a daily record
for this observing site, proving its detrimental rainfall. 7.78 inches fell at this COOP site between
7 am August 31st to 7 am September 23rd, which is excessive for State College. The average
rainfall for September in State College is 3.57 inches, receiving over double that after this
rainfall event. (https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/state-college/pennsylvania/united-states/
uspa2543)

Statement of Opinion:
It was highly likely that there was flooding at John Wetfoot’s home because of the rainfall
duration and intensity. Given the information from the Storm Event Database, we can conclude
during September 22nd and September 23rd, there was evidence of flooding in Centre County in
the early morning of September 23rd. It was likely that localized flooding took place due to the
abundance of rainfall, and not just a singular rainfall event that affected the region. KUNV
reported periods of moderate precipitation on the night of September 22nd.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Track website, there were no
indications of any tropical cyclones affecting State College and the surrounding regions. Tropical
cyclones were not shown for these days by the National Hurricane Center and the Daily Weather
Maps. Many of my sources showed similar data further proving there was impactful rainfall
throughout the timeframe and for the month overall.

Attachment 1: Storm Events Database for Centre County for 09/20/2021 – 09/23/2021
Attachment 2: National Weather Service Radar Data for Pennsylvania (09/23/2021 0805 UTC)

Attachment 3: WPC Surface Analysis Map (September 23rd 2021)

Attachment 4: State College COOP Data for September 2021

Attachment 5: WX Stem Beaver Stadium Precipitation Data (09/21 – 09/23)

Attachment 6: National Hurricane Center (2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Track Map)
Attachment 7: KUNV METAR Code (September 22nd 00:53 UTC – 23rd 2021 23:53 UTC)

#DEBUG: Format Typ -> comma

#DEBUG: Time Period -> 2021-09-22 00:00:00+00:00 2021-09-24 00:00:00+00:00
#DEBUG: Time Zone -> Etc/UTC
#DEBUG: Data Contact -> daryl herzmann akrherz@iastate.edu 515-294-5978
#DEBUG: Entries Found -> -1
station,valid,drct,sped,p01m,wxcodes
UNV,2021-09-22 00:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-22 01:36,0.00,0.00,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-22 01:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-22 08:58,0.00,0.00,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-22 09:53,150.00,4.60,0.00,-RA BR
UNV,2021-09-22 10:53,120.00,9.20,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-22 11:53,120.00,11.50,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-22 12:35,120.00,8.05,0.00,-RA BR
UNV,2021-09-22 12:53,140.00,9.20,0.00,-DZ BR
UNV,2021-09-22 13:53,120.00,8.05,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-22 14:53,120.00,6.90,0.00,BR VCSH
UNV,2021-09-22 15:53,120.00,11.50,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 16:37,120.00,6.90,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 16:53,120.00,6.90,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 17:53,120.00,6.90,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 18:53,120.00,6.90,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 19:53,150.00,17.25,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 20:36,150.00,17.25,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 20:53,150.00,11.50,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-22 21:53,130.00,9.20,0.00,-DZ BR
UNV,2021-09-22 22:53,120.00,11.50,0.00,-DZ BR
UNV,2021-09-22 23:53,110.00,9.20,0.00,-RA BR
UNV,2021-09-23 00:53,140.00,13.80,0.00,-RA BR
UNV,2021-09-23 01:53,140.00,11.50,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-23 02:50,140.00,11.50,0.00,-RA BR
UNV,2021-09-23 08:58,0.00,0.00,0.00,RA
UNV,2021-09-23 09:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-23 10:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,-RA
UNV,2021-09-23 11:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,RA
UNV,2021-09-23 12:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-23 13:53,210.00,6.90,0.00,BR
UNV,2021-09-23 14:53,240.00,4.60,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 15:53,240.00,4.60,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 16:53,240.00,4.60,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 17:53,250.00,9.20,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 18:53,250.00,9.20,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 19:53,240.00,17.25,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 20:53,210.00,200.10,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 21:53,230.00,14.95,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 22:53,240.00,9.20,0.00,M
UNV,2021-09-23 23:53,0.00,0.00,0.00,M

Attachment 8: Daily Weather Map for September 21st, 2021

Attachment 9: Daily Weather Map for September 23rd, 2021

Attachment 10: Distance to Walker Building COOP Site

Attachment 11: Distance to KUNV COOP Site

Attachment 12: Distance to Beaver Stadium
 Works Cited Links
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?
eventType=ALL&beginDate_mm=09&beginDate_dd=20&beginDate_yyyy=2021&endDate_m
m=09&endDate_dd=23&endDate_yyyy=2021&county=CENTRE
%3A27&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefi
ps=42%2CPENNSYLVANIA
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/radar/
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive_maps.php?
arcdate=09/23/2021&selmap=2021092306&maptype=namussfc
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-1B262758-32A4-4246-9C9E-2483312C0EB4-
wxc3.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2021.png
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?
station=UNV&data=drct&data=sped&data=p01m&data=wxcodes&year1=2021&month1=9&da
y1=22&year2=2021&month2=9&day2=24&tz=Etc
%2FUTC&format=comma&latlon=no&elev=no&missing=M&trace=T&direct=no&report_type
=3&report_type=4
https://centre.weatherstem.com/data?refer=/beaverstadium
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20210921.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20210923.html
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sunrise+Terrace,+State+College,+PA+16801/
@40.7953901,-77.8691935,14z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x89cea8bb0e12ed13:0x926c2bb6817b9df3!
8m2!3d40.7865479!4d-77.8520219!16s%2Fg%2F1v2kydfq?entry=ttu