Greetings, Friends! To Kick This Issue Off, We Have Tim in Abu Dhabi To Thank For Sending This Beauty Through

— Issue #279: Aug 2023 —
Greetings, friends!
To kick this issue off, we have Tim in Abu Dhabi to thank for sending this beauty through.
Though not a sunset shot, here’s a photo from my friend and fellow subscriber Andrew,
who took this while flying over the Bosphorus.
© 2023 Capex Administrative Ltd. | Unauthorised sharing may result in limb loss 1
That little strip of water once again is going to prove decisive in the reshaping of the world
taking place right now.
Warning: This issue is a beast. And you know what? I left a lot of things out which are in my
scrappy notes (I have a dog-eared, bent, and ugly-as-sin scrapbook I use to jot down
thoughts always close at hand), and it fills up so rapidly that I keep having to buy more. I feel
like I’m drinking from a firehose at the moment. So much going on… and the need to parse it
down to what matters most and keep focused on outcomes for all of us.
I sincerely hope that every one of you is healthy and positive. I was going to say happy, but I
don’t think happiness is what we’re after. I am not. I am after a certain level of peace for
sure, and I am hopeful of navigating the storm we are in, but I’m not really after happiness.
So, I am not going to wish you happiness, but rather resilience and fortitude.
Onward…
IN THIS WEEK’S ISSUE

● There goes the global South…
● Extending into LatAm
● No land for commies
● No money, no honey
● COVID 2.0
● Russian military just called this
● What COVID really taught us
● Digital Berlin wall
● BRICS meet
● BRICS aren’t happy
● Crude oil vs crude oil equivalent consumption
● Tankers
● US LNG increase
● Conventional vs alternative energy
● LGBQT portfolio impact
● Chat with Subsea 7 CEO
● Mad mag Dick, meet BHP
● The Big Five:
1. Anton Oilfield Services
2. Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings
3. Uranium
4. CNX Resources
5. SFL Corporation
THERE GOES THE GLOBAL SOUTH…

By now you’ll have heard all about the turmoil in Niger. It isn’t just Niger to be fair. If you
pay attention, it is ALL of the French colonial territories now getting uppity. My friend Alex
Krainer (aka the Naked Hedgie) wrote a must read article on the topic: The Business of
Freedom and Democracy.
Alex digs into some of the background behind the conflict, and I agree 100% with what he
has to say. Further to his article, we see the zeitgeist across Northern Africa. They are
decidedly sick of Western powers.
Then there is this…
Russia just told ECOWAS, the Western-led military alliance in West Africa, not to
intervene in Niger. Clearly Russia and China are the rapidly emerging geopolitical
superpowers as the US and Europe see continually waning influence.
Could Wagner have been involved to disrupt the Western-led status quo?
Maybe. Maybe not, but certainly this war will be fought on multiple fronts. To think
otherwise flies in the face of historical precedent as well as basic military strategy. What
better way to hit the West via a visibly weak France, than to cut off their main uranium
supplier while simultaneously disrupting the Francophone dominion within West Africa.
Skipping northwards… Could this also have anything to do with Sweden, who have been
supplied uranium via the Frogs after Russian uranium became… ahem… sanctioned?
“Uranium mining is set to return to mainland Europe as the region seeks alternatives to
Russian nuclear fuel and Sweden pushes to treble its atomic energy capacity, the country’s
climate minister has said.”
I don’t know if one led the other, but certainly with the visible de-industrialization of
Europe and Germany in particular being so visible, the Swedes have likely hitched up their
thermal leggings and said to themselves, “Hey, we need to get us some energy independence
here.”
Sweden, it is worth pointing out, imports nuclear energy from… deep breath…. the Frogs.
And guess who the Frogs are going to prioritise when supply is insufficient? Yeah, that’s
what I thought, too.
Anyhoot, there are multiple reasons to make the case for uranium, and as such, we
continue to be boring old farts… and keep holding our positions.
Meanwhile...
Back to the whole African issue we began with in this section, here are the African
countries that have signed military agreements with Russia.
Continuing with the global bifurcation now well underway and looking at trade…(because
trade flows are a strong predictor of political and military alliances).
Russia-UAE trade ‘skyrocketing’ – Bloomberg
“Economic cooperation between Russia and the United Arab Emirates has been on the rise
despite Ukraine-related Western sanctions on Moscow, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
The outlet cited the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace as saying that the flow
of Russian oil and precious metals into the emirates have recently soared while microchips
and civilian drones were being supplied to Moscow.
The report also quoted Goldman Sachs’ Jared Cohen as stating that the UAE is profiting
from its position as a “geopolitical swing state.”
Apart from soaring exports, the UAE has also been gaining popularity as a financial haven
for wealthy Russians. The Gulf state hosts more than 4,000 Russian companies and is
currently in talks with Moscow over a free-trade agreement between the UAE and the
Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.
The UAE is poised to attract the biggest share of private wealth this year as Russian
capital seeks a new home, according to a recent report published by Henley & Partners.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has stated that the UAE is on course
to become one of Russia’s 20 top economic partners due to the rapid growth of trade and
cooperation in recent months. The Gulf country has become a key destination for Russian
gold since Western governments closed their markets as part of their sanctions on
Moscow.”
It’s almost as if we told you this was going to happen years ago. The only downside now is
that real estate is up some 146% since we pointed this out, but to be honest, even though
we may get some pullback, this is a massive trend which I frankly don’t see stopping
anytime soon.
As mentioned last week, the global South is increasingly done with the West. The
statements from African leaders make it clear that they fully understand the relationship
between them and the West, and they now see an opening and opportunity to exit that
relationship. They all have watched Libya, Sudan, Afghanistan, and Syria to name a few.
And now, of course, they see the total destruction of Ukraine. That all must look as
appealing to them as contracting a venereal disease.
Consider the following as a snapshot of the propaganda that Westerners are subjected to
on a daily basis.
Sadly, many (or maybe even most) don’t even see it as propaganda. The brainwashing is so
complete, and the enslavement of their minds is so thorough. Hapless, willfully ignorant,
and destined to what tends to come to any society that is so easily led. In other words, they
will be led. To where, we will all find out.
In any event, all of this bodes very, very well for an environment of broken and breaking
supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and higher opex and capex for business, not to mention
the factoring of political risk. Any one of these factors would be significant in itself, but
we’ve got all of them, which means stagflation, and stagflation is bullish for commodities.
Just sayin’!
EXTENDING INTO LATAM

Remember, power abhors a vacuum, and for this reason, power vacuums always get filled.
Saudi Arabia To Set Up Embassy In Costa Rica, 8 Years After Resuming Diplomatic Ties
“The decision was announced Monday when Saudi Arabia's Investment Minister Khalid
Al-Falih, who was on a visit to the Latin American country, held a meeting with Costa
Rica's ministers of foreign relations, Arnoldo Andre, and foreign trade, Manuel Tovar.
Following the meeting, Andre said Saudi Arabia's weight in the global sphere was
"undeniable," and called the Kingdom "a strategic partner for Costa Rica." Collective
actions with Saudi Arabia were also "planned in favor of the environment, development
and cooperation," he added.”
The Saudis have three things: sand, oil, and money. Two of these are useful. I’ve always said
that we’d see extraordinary things taking place as we move through the decade, watching
Western hegemony flail, falter, and fragment. This is it! The Saudis stepping into the US
playpen is it (or at least part of it). Let’s hope the Ticos and Ticas can strike a favourable
deal for trade, because it won’t take very much to move the needle in that tiny little Latin
American paradise.
Hopping onto one of those puddle jumpers and flying from the land of Pura Vida to
Nicaragua, we see more evidence of the power vacuum we’ve been promising you being
filled.
Nicaragua approved the deployment of Russian military bases and cruise missiles on its
territory
“The President of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, signed a decree according to which the
deployment of Russian military bases and deployment of cruise missiles will be allowed in
the country. This decision could become an important factor in the geopolitical balance of
the region, especially given its close proximity to the United States.
The Russian news site also highlights the distance between Nicaragua and the US capital,
Washington: 3000 km.
“With such proximity, missiles stationed in Nicaragua can reach the US capital in no time”
– the Russian website warns.”
Rest assured that someone in the halls of DC has to have their panties in a bunch over this.
What with West African nations splitting from their coercive Western rulers, Ukraine
winning so hard they’re down to their very last men, the Mid-East admitting Syria back into
the Arab League, the Saudis extending influence into LatAm (and much more elsewhere),
there are likely an entire wardrobe of panties being bunched in the Western halls of power.
Moving south from Costa Rica...
NO LAND FOR COMMIES

You’ll be no stranger to Argentina as we’ve been covering this ever since late 2021 when
we began positioning, but it’s worth pointing out that a Rothbardian anarcho capitalist is
winning the Argentina presidential primary and is likely to become the front runner.
Milei’s people are also to be found on social media, and you may get a sense for why his
party is popular.
Touché! Two things worry me, though.
1) What will the deep state do when they see this? In other words, will he be
“Epsteined?” And secondly...
2) If elected and successful, will Argentina find itself in the midst of sanctions, colour
revolutions, or the like?
I figure it can’t be much worse than what the commies have done to the place since World
War II, so…
My guess (and hope) is that firstly, he wins, and secondly, due to the massive disconnects
taking place right now, the ensuing global chaos now baked in the cake (independent of
Argentina, by the way) will allow for two things:
1) Argentina will continue to function within the increasingly dysfunctional. Basically, a
world caught up with multiple problems such that the “problem” of a libertarian
anarcho capitalist country operating can indeed take place relatively unscathed, and
2) The enemy of your enemy becomes your friend, and Argentina will join the BRICS
(although Milei has suggested they won't, so watch this space because they were
just accepted). This will open the country to trade rather than debt from the likes of
the sycophants at the IMF and World Bank.
Sticking with Argentina, the legacy media (Reuters) ran a story on what's happening in
Argentina…
Argentine far-right outsider Javier Milei posts shock win in primary election
Apparently, it's a “shock” that Milei is winning. Only to MSM “journalists” it is. To every
man, woman, and dog on the street in Argentina it most certainly isn’t. Heck, this hedgie
sitting in his underpants writing to you pointed it out nearly two years ago. It really makes
one wonder where these “journalists" are reporting from. Washington, D.C., where they’ve
just managed to squeeze in an hour at the end of a gruelling day at the local coffee shop
drafting up some more hogwash on how hard Ukraine is winning or how breathing causes
earthquakes and wildfires, and if you just eat the bugs and stop showering, we can change
the Earth's atmosphere. Or perhaps they are sitting in Paris ignoring the rioting outside
their door and reporting on fire safety standards in a remote holiday home.
No, I’m not making this one up. This ridiculous nothing-of-a story was front page. Front
page, folks!
While France continues to burn (not that you’d know by watching the idiot box), over in the
other member of the Five Eyes, specifically the land of hobbits (New Zealand) where the
vast populace appear to be blind or maybe plain stupid (stupid being wilful ignorance). It is
shocking to me that a country which survives on agriculture (literally), can be so utterly
ignorant, gullible, and conforming with and supportive of their very own destruction, which
brings me to…
NO MONEY, NO HONEY
NZ's key rural lenders have all signed up to reduce their financed dairy farming emissions
“The industry-led, United Nations convened NZBA is a group of banks aiming to transition
their lending and investment portfolios to net-zero emissions by 2050. It has 133 bank
members from 43 countries holding a combined US$74 trillion in total assets, which is
estimated to be 41% of global banking assets. Membership of the NZBA comes with
emissions reduction targets.”
Ah, the UN — that old Marxist institution.
"Part of the reason for this is because if something is funded it happens. And if it isn't
funded it doesn't happen," Cain said.”
You mean like growing food?
Thank goodness there are other banks, right? Right?!?
“ANZ NZ, Rabobank, ASB and Westpac? As noted, all their parent banks have signed up to
the NZBA.”
And you know what is the most stunning thing? There are literally a handful of farmers
getting up in arms. The rest? They’re sitting around mumbling and grumbling, but doing
EXACTLY NOTHING, all while their livelihoods are being systematically dismantled. It
really is quite something to behold.
Realise this insanity is not a New Zealand phenomenon. It is a virus that has engulfed much
of the world.
Do you see how we're going to have a food crisis? It is worth considering where the food is
going to come from. One way or the other, the world is likely to become desperate for food,
and food, my friends, can’t be manufactured without fertilisers. At least not real food. Sure,
the soylent green type, cancer-causing poison the WHO now tells us is “healthy” can be,
but not real food.
I am willing to bet that we’ve not seen the highs in fertiliser stocks for this cycle.
COVID 2.0?
The Russian Defense Ministry came out with a statement saying the United States is
preparing a new pandemic. They noted that American projects related to the study of
especially dangerous diseases and their pathogens can lead to a pandemic around the
world:
“The United States, as in 2019, began preparing a new pandemic by searching for virus
mutations.”
You’d think that when the world's single largest nuclear power and a clear enemy of the
United States makes an accusation like this, the MSM would be all over it like a squadron of
fact checkers attacking a conspiracy theorist. But no. Nada. Silencio.
At a previous similar briefing, it was reported that the United States plans to use drones to
infect enemy troops with mosquitoes. Such drones will release infected mosquitoes and
infect servicemen bitten with dangerous infections such as malaria.
Meanwhile, I noticed that Florida has issued another alert for dengue fever, a
mosquito-borne disease. There is an increase in infections. To date, at least 10 people
across the state have been infected. So there’s that.
Sticking with the COVID fraud for a minute as well as the Russian military…
RUSSIAN MILITARY JUST CALLED THIS

Briefing by Chief of Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Protection Troops of the Armed Forces of
the Russian Federation Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov on U.S. military-biological activity
Russian MIL accuses the US of releasing bioweapons to create “crisis situations” and claims
the US are planning to do it again.
Russia just accused the ruling families of the DNC and big pharma of creating COVID in
Ukraine, and using it to take over the world:
“Thus, as in 2019, the US has begun preparing for a new pandemic by searching for virus
mutations. We do not rule out that the United States will use of so-called defensive
technologies for offensive purposes, as well as for global governance by creating crisis
situations of a biological nature.”
I’ve been trying to tell everyone from the jump that Ukraine is backlash for the production
and release of SARS-CoV-2.
World War 3 has already started, and COVID was the first weapon fired.
“There is a clear trend: pathogens that fall within the Pentagon's area of interest, such as
COVID-19, avian influenza, African swine fever, subsequently become pandemic, and
American pharmaceutical companies become the beneficiaries.”
And taking direct aim at EcoHealth Alliance (Bill Gates won’t be happy) as well as USAID:
“Earlier, we informed about the possible involvement of the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) in the emergence of the new coronavirus.
The EcoHealth Alliance intermediary organisation plays a key role in implementing

projects to study this pathogen. Since 2015, the specialists of this company have been
studying the diversity of the bat population, searching for new strains of coronavirus and
mechanisms of their transmission from animals to humans. A total of over 2,500 beings
have been researched.
I recall that on 18 October 2019, two months before the first official reports about the
emergence of the new coronavirus infection in China, John Hopkins University conducted
Event 201 exercise in New York.
This exercise simulated the epidemic of a previously unknown coronavirus that, according
to the scenario, was transmitted from bats to humans via a porcine organism, the
intermediary virus carrier.
The development of the pandemic under this scenario, as well as the implementation of
EcoHealth Alliance projects, raises questions about the possible intentional nature of
COVID-19 and U.S. involvement in the incident.”
Once again, silence from the MSM. No wonder the average Joe has no earthly idea what is
going on or the danger his government has put him in.
WHAT COVID REALLY TAUGHT US
It was something we already knew from the Milgram experiment…
65% of us would seriously harm/kill someone if we were ordered to by an authority figure.

Are you one of them?
One of the most famous studies in psychology was carried out by Stanley Milgram, a
psychologist at Yale University. He conducted an experiment focusing on the conflict
between obedience to authority and personal conscience.
Milgram (1963) examined justifications for acts of genocide offered by those accused at
the World War II, Nuremberg War Criminal trials. Their defence often was based on
“obedience”—that they were just following orders from their superiors. The procedure was
that the participant was paired with another person and they drew lots to find out who
would be the ‘learner’ and who would be the ‘teacher.’ The draw was fixed so that the
participant was always the teacher, and the learner was one of Milgram’s confederates
(pretending to be a real participant).
The “learner” (Mr. Wallace) was strapped to a chair with electrodes in a separate room.
After he has learned a list of word pairs given him to learn, the “teacher” tests him by
naming a word and asking the learner to recall its partner/pair from a list of four possible
choices. The teacher is told to administer an electric shock every time the learner makes a
mistake, increasing the level of shock each time. There were 30 switches on the shock
generator marked from 15 volts (slight shock) to 450 (danger – severe shock).
Results: Sixty-five percent (two-thirds) of participants (i.e., teachers) continued to the

highest level of 450 volts. All the participants continued to 300 volts.
Conclusion: Ordinary people are likely to follow orders given by an authority figure, even
to the extent of killing an innocent human being. Obedience to authority is ingrained in us
all from the way we are brought up.
Why point this out?
Because this tool of psychological manipulation and propaganda is being used daily.
Certainly, this phenomenon is behind why the way unvaccinated people were treated so
poorly during the COVID plandemic.
It is important to understand and see where it has more and less relevance. If we take the
three horses of the apocalypse:
1) Climate change
2) COVID
3) Ukraine
These give us a decent barometer with which to work.
The second one (COVID) is now easy enough as we’ve plenty of data on it. Most
everywhere fell for it, but here is a map showing vaccination rates. A pretty good
barometer for who believed and who called BS.
It is no surprise that countries and societies which in more recent times have experienced
totalitarian regimes, genocides, pogroms and generally abundant evidence that “trusting
authorities” blindly is a bad idea fared far better than those who have no such recent
experience to “colour their judgement.”
Oh, one other thing not mentioned is that in the Milgram experiment they found that 18
variations of the test showed that it didn't take much to reduce compliance to 10% instead
of 67%. In particular, seeing someone else resist authority, which is why they need
censorship and repression of dissenting voices.
Now you know!
DIGITAL BERLIN WALL

The Digital Services Act package
All of you across NATOstan, beware!
New rules now in place allow for the control of everything in your digital life, including,
sooner rather than later, even private chats.
Dance to the NWO tune… or else.
Now, this is where things get interesting. Because when you kill freedom of action, you
destroy entire economies.
“Ah, but they're not killing action, Chris?”
Really? How does one take action? By first having thought. How does one have thought? By
testing that thought with others, by discussion, and vigorous stress testing.
How does one do that in an environment where that expression is monitored, controlled,
and singled out for punishment, unless it fits an increasingly authoritarian woke ideological
framework?
You see where I’m going with this? You can see that this digital wall being implemented is
no different than what the Bolsheviks did when erecting the wall between East and West
Berlin. The results too will be similar. How can they not?
The window of opportunity to obtain access to a parallel system that exists outside of this
may not last forever. Consider this yet another notification to that effect.
How will we watch this transition into a destructive hamstring society? Well, for one we’ll
see it in the currency markets. The EUR/USD currency pair will be a good proxy.
As bad as the dollar is, it stands head and shoulders above the fatally flawed euro.
BRICS MEET
And guess what? They invited not just one or two… but six new members into the BRICS.
With the addition of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran to the BRICS, the
Union will be able to control 80% of global oil production.
The same goes for the sharp GDP growth of the new BRICS countries. It will amount to
30% of world GDP and exceed $30 trillion. In fac, the GDP of the newly expanded BRICS in
terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), which is arguably a more accurate measure since it
doesn’t include government spending, will reach $65 trillion (or 37.3% of global GDP)
against the G7 at 29.9%.
At the same time, the US is on a highly destructive trajectory. A two trillion dollar annual
deficit that equates to more than 8% of the country’s GDP is beyond alarming and so is a
total government debt/GDP ratio of close to 130%.
Following closely barking at the wheels of the BRICS bus we have Kazakhstan.
Thank heavens they’re not energy rich and geographically located smack bang in
Mackinder's heartland. Kazakhstan is an important one for the simple reason that it is THE
country with the strongest ties to the West within the “stans.” That they are seeking to join
the BRICS certainly can’t be going down well in Washington, London, or Brussels.
BRICS AREN’T HAPPY

Additionally to this, the BRICS are not happy with climate catastrophists pushing their
agendas through the likes of the World Bank, the IMF, the UN, and even the WHO.
Doomberg wrote an excellent article on this. The TLDR is that the Marxists used “carbon
emissions” as the bogeyman for getting control. And guess what? The engineers set to work
on developing technologies for the sequestration of carbon. Problem solved then. Ah, not
so fast, Batman. Their goal, as we know, wasn't ACTUALLY about carbon emissions. That
was a red herring. No, they've now changed and said that’s not good enough. It is about the
“burning of fossil fuels.”
Here’s an excerpt from Doomberg’s piece:
“The President of COP28, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who also happens to be Group CEO of
the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, had the following to say. With the conference
approaching, Al Jaber made clear his intention to put CCS technology at the center of the
COP28 agenda. Take a look at the response to this from the Western Malthusianists.
“The United Arab Emirates’ approach to the Cop28 climate summit it will
preside over in November is ‘very dangerous’ and a ‘direct threat to the
survival of vulnerable nations,’ according to the UN’s former climate chief.
Christiana Figueres, who was pivotal to the delivery of the landmark Paris
climate agreement in 2015, also said the country holding the presidency of
the UN summit could not put forward its own position and had to be neutral…
Figueres was responding to a speech by Al Jaber in which he said: ‘We must

be laser focused on phasing out fossil fuel emissions, while phasing up
viable, affordable zero carbon alternatives.’
That was widely interpreted to mean using carbon capture and storage (CCS)
technology to capture CO2 emissions, and not completely phasing out fossil
fuels themselves. ‘The fact that ‘emissions’ is in that sentence is very
worrisome,’ said Figueres, on the Outrage and Optimism podcast she
co-hosts.”
Doomberg goes on to say this:
“Contrary to how the industry is generally portrayed, commodity producers are among the
most technologically sophisticated organizations on the planet. Each day, tens of
thousands of scientists and engineers do the dizzying array of hard work that makes life
easy for the rest of us, which makes our collective disdain for their efforts rather
inexplicable. If you challenge these professionals to solve a difficult problem—like
removing CO2 from the combustion products of fossil fuels and finding ways to
permanently store it underground—they are likely to crack it. The vigorous opposition
flowing from the Malthusians must mean their efforts are pretty close to the finish line.”
Chris again…
We concur wholeheartedly. It is fascinating to watch this awakening. For many of us, we

always looked at the entire climate catastrophe nonsense through the lens of history. As
such, it’s pretty hard to come to any conclusion, other than that it is a ploy, a fraud, an
absurd, and an obvious nonsense.
Because it is so absurd and so visibly intellectually impaired, it’s always surprised us how
many people have been suckered into it. Simple logic tells us that CO2 is 0.04% of the
atmosphere, and given that we bipeds create less than 3% of that 0.04%, only an imbecile
would seriously suggest that we should destroy the economy, force up energy prices,
which forces up food prices, which literally starves millions of people globally. All because
of 3% of 0.04% of the atmosphere.
We have always adhered to the following:
And now finally we see countries and their respective leaders coming to the same
conclusion. It couldn’t come sooner. This itself is going to accelerate the global bifurcation
we’ve been jabbering on about for so long here. It isn’t just coming — it’s taking place right
now. What a time to be alive!
CRUDE OIL VS CRUDE OIL EQUIVALENT

CONSUMPTION
Notice this headline:
But 103 million barrels per day isn’t all crude oil. It is hydrocarbons equivalent to 103
million barrels per day. The actual consumption of crude is about 80 million barrels per day,
roughly the same as it was in 2018.
So where has the growth come from? Mostly NGLs (natural gas liquids) and biofuels
(ethanol from corn made possible only with the addition of nitrogen-based fertiliser, itself a
derivative of natural gas).
Here’s another way of looking at it:
Where do NGLs come from? Essentially US shale, and about half of that is from the
Permian Basin:
What is the point of all this? If we are right on production/productivity issues facing US
shale, then the world is in for a nasty shock when it comes to the price of oil and everything
that feeds down through the value chain. What we saw in early 2022 (Ukraine invasion)
was a mere blip.
The “value chain” is more broader than you think. A few examples:
● If (when) we see oil above $100 a barrel, don’t be surprised to see the price of food
rocket (because of some genius who decided corn and sugar is more useful as an
energy ingredient instead of food).
● Mortgage rates “somewhat” above 10% in the US. And where rates go in the US, the
rest of the world follows in quick order.
Index of US mortgage rates
If mortgage rates are at 20-year highs, what will they be when oil hits $100?
A few years ago we had clients asking us what our thoughts were on locking in 30-year
mortgages at 3%. We thought folks who didn’t take advantage of that were a little crazy!
My goodness, if we were so lucky to have the ability to lock in a 30-year mortgage rate in
Australia or New Zealand.
TANKERS
We haven’t had much to say about the tanker trade as of late, mainly because nothing much
has changed.
One of the primary reasons for remaining bullish on tankers is the lack of newbuilds and
the appetite for building new ships. But ships are like T-shirts — they get older, and at some
point folks start looking sideways at you and offering you their spare change. I use it as a
great signal that I need to buy some new ones.
Ships are the same. They need to be replaced or at least scrapped once they get too old.
DHT had this to say:
“Today, orders for VLCCs [Very Large Crude Carriers] are just under two percent, which is
historically low. In addition, 30 percent of the fleet is older than 15 years, and 14 percent
exceeds 20 years of age. Therefore, around 90 ships will be 20 years old by 2025. So
scrapping will have to pick up at some point, and the fleet will get smaller
DHT is among the tanker companies that are refraining from ordering new tonnage and
will remain reluctant for the foreseeable future. According to the company, this is because
prices have become too steep, and because the yards are so full that the ships cannot be
delivered until 2026 or 2027 which would mean ”too much dead capital on the balance
sheet.”
DHT is talking just about VLCCs, but the order book doesn’t change for smaller classes of
tankers (Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax), nor for product carriers.
There is nothing discussed above that we didn’t already know, but it is nonetheless a good
reminder to stay the course.
Check out the fundamentals for Euronav — spanning ships across VLCC, Suezmax, and
Aframax classes — with forward dividend yields of 15% and ROEs in excess of 30%.
US LNG PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 50%
In their latest report, Goehring and Rozencwajg provided a few comments on US natural
gas that puts forward a very bullish case — stuff we already knew, but probably haven’t
appreciated to its full extent:
“LNG demand reached a record of 12.5 bcf/d in May as Freeport returned online after a
damaging fire left it inoperable for over a year. Based upon our analysis, the likelihood of
full storage by the end of the injection season in the fall is very low; gas prices will likely
rally from here.
Over the next two years, an additional six billion cubic feet of LNG exports will come
online at Golden Pass, Plaquemines, and Corpus Christi. Another 1.6 bcf/d is due to come
online at Port Arthur in 2027. Where will these facilities source their gas?”
So two years from now, liquid natural gas (LNG) exports will account for some 15% of US
natural gas production. Goehring and Rozencwajg go on to explain the issues plaguing
shale oil are essentially the same plaguing natural gas:
“In our last letter, we explained how the same depletion issues plaguing the oil shales are
also at work in the gas shales. The Marcellus represents 25% of all US dry gas supply and
has not grown in nearly two years. Production peaked in late 2021 at 26.5 bcf/d – almost
one bcf/d higher than current levels. The Permian produces natural gas alongside oil, but
declining productivity across the basin suggests sustained growth will be difficult.”
As per usual, we (humans) always overdo a good thing:
“Our models tell us we (the United States) have overbuilt our LNG export capacity without
adequately considering where the upstream feedstock will come from. US natural gas
remains by far the cheapest unit of energy globally by as much as 75%. Once demand,
driven by LNG expansion, exceeds domestic supply, our expectation is that this discount
will evaporate, sending US gas prices up several-fold, as US prices converge with
international prices.”
We remind folks that the use of natural gas for electricity generation increased by 200%
over the last 20 years and doubled with the onset of the shale “revolution.”
It’s important to note that natural gas isn’t just used for electricity generation. It is used for
industry (essentially heating) where coal isn’t used. Put another way, for most applications
(except for steel making) natural gas can be substituted for coal, but not so the other way
around (e.g. it isn’t easy to make nitrogen fertiliser from coal).
The US may be in a whole lot more trouble than it realises if its natural gas reserves are
exhausted.
CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

One chart to tell the story…
MSCI World Alternative Energy Index (yellow) vs MSCI World Energy Index (white)
The “alternative energy” theme is unwinding, and its pain is conventional energy’s gain. We
think this has many years to play out.
LGBTQ PORTFOLIO IMPACT

We couldn’t help but explore the “impact lens” function on the IBKR app. Oh my goodness!
We couldn’t believe what we were seeing. You “couldn’t make this stuff up.”
Clowns! Just like these idiots from the early 1980s, this bizarre fashion, too, shall pass.
Speaking of fads and fashions, the punk rock thing had nothing on climate change…
We don’t quite know what the lasting effect of this will be:
“A study in 2021 of 16- to 25-year-olds in 10 countries including the U.S. reported that
59% were very or extremely worried about climate change, and 84% were at least
moderately worried. Forty-five percent claimed they were so worried that they struggled
to function on a daily basis, the definition of an anxiety disorder.”
But what we are quite confident about is that this ideology must burn out like the virus it is.
That process is going to be painful, expensive, and destructive if history is any guide.
INTERESTING CHAT WITH SUBSEA7 CEO
The discussion is a little generic, but there are always a few things you learn from any
discussion.
This conversation will help you understand the offshore sector a little better.
MAD MAG DICK, MEET BHP

The resemblance is uncanny…
And Australia’s own village idiot — the Minister of Finance for the Queensland
Government:
With the Queensland government hiking mining royalties for coal to the highest in the
world, new developments have become unattractive to BHP and quite rightly they don’t
want to invest in any greenfields operations in Queensland. Dick’s response? Well, I will
take away your mining licences. It’s a MAD world out there!
What are the investment implications for us? In the short term, probably nothing. But from
a longer-term perspective, it means two things:
1) There won’t be any additional supply of coal coming online from Queensland.
2) Capital always goes where it’s treated best, and power abhors a vacuum. Capital will
simply go to jurisdictions which aren’t completely retarded and those jurisdictions
will fill the power vacuum (no pun intended).
What we’re witnessing is an acceleration of the Great Reset being pushed through in the
West while the BRICS move decidedly away from this Malthusian death cult, and in so
doing the capital will continue to shift accordingly. It will result in the death of Western
imperialism, and good riddance to it. It has been a malignant cancer benefitting increasingly
the military industrial complex and few others.
THE BIG FIVE
Five deep value ideas that you probably wouldn’t have heard of before let alone considered.
These aren’t trade ideas as such, but if you were to take each position short them in equal
weights and hold those short positions for five years, you would most likely be taken to the
cleaners, which answers the question of whether or not they would be a good investment.
Please read our important disclaimer here regarding any recommendations.
1. Anton Oilfield Services

2. Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings
3. Uranium
4. CNX Resources
5. SFL Corporation
ANTON OILFIELD SERVICES

An oil field services provider with a focus on the PRC and Iraq… and sitting on a P/E of 4x.
Did we mention a P/E of F-O-U-R times?
CHU KONG PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS STEEL PIPE
HOLDINGS
An Irish… only kidding. A Chinese welded steel pipe (pipeline) manufacturer with pipelines
used in energy transportation, including oil and gas transmission pipelines, deep-sea
pipelines, urban gas networks, as well as petrochemical products, mining, infrastructure
engineering, ocean engineering, steel structures, and water services. Most of its business
occurs within China.
Lining it up with Hilong, they look distinctively similar, although Hilong is a manufacturer of
drill-pipe whereas Chu Kong produces pipelines.
URANIUM
The uranium spot price is quietly creeping up and is now not too far from the Ukraine
invasion-induced spike of last year. Goehring & Rozencwajg outline the long-term bullish
argument brilliantly:
“Looking to the end of the decade, global uranium markets are set to tighten to
unprecedented levels. Looking only at nuclear power plants that are currently under
construction, reactor demand is set to grow from 188 to 240 mm lbs by 2030.
If every uranium-producing country gets back to its maximum output (a big if ), primary
production will only grow from 140 to 174 mm pounds by 2030. Assuming secondary
supply stays flat at 20 mm lbs per year, the annual uranium market deficit will grow from
27 to 45 mm lbs by the end of the decade, before factoring in further financial buying. The
cumulative deficit between 2023 and 2030 will likely exceed 250 mm lbs, completely
depleting all commercial stockpiles.
These figures are likely too conservative. There are presently fifty-nine reactors under
construction with a total capacity of 66 GWe. Every new reactor requires three years of
uranium fuel for its initial core loading. We believe this will consume an additional 60 mm
lbs of U3O8 between now and 2030.
Over the past twenty years, new reactors have been mostly offset by retirements. When a
reactor is decommissioned, it is able to harvest its final core loading without requiring a
replacement. Therefore, new reactor loadings have been offset by retiring old reactors.
This will not be possible going forward.
Furthermore, financial accumulation is likely to accelerate once speculators realise the

small size of the market and the precarious commercial inventory situation. How large
financial buying can get is an open question, however adding another 100 mm lbs of
U3O8 would only cost $6 bn and would dramatically tighten balances even further.”
We think that it is a matter of a few months before uranium miners truly “pop.” Considering
that they have gone nowhere for some 20 months, the upside will likely surprise. My
goodness, the uranium trade has been a long, hard road!
CNX RESOURCES
We could have included many natural gas focused stocks here. There is nothing unique
with CNX above its other natural gas compatriots. It seems like these natural gas stocks are
looking to break to new highs.
While on the subject of NatGas producers. Rarely (if ever) do we get asked about what to
do with a “winner that gets away” on clients. Rather, we always seemed to be asked
questions about what to do with stocks that the Market Gods show no mercy and crush
into the ground.
If folks invest a max of 1% of their portfolio into a stock trade, then if that stock drops by
50%... or even 90%, it has virtually no impact on the performance of one’s portfolio.
However, it is a very different story when the Gods of Chance look kindly upon a stock.
Take Antero Resources, for example.
We first bought into Antero in May 2020 for about $3.0 (we didn’t think this was too smart
at the time considering a few months prior we could have bought it at $1). So that one
stock now accounts for about 5% of the portfolio (the portfolio has doubled since then). If
we were a little sharper and bought this stock at $1, then this stock would now account for
about 15% of our portfolio (note: we didn’t buy just Antero Resources in May 2020 but
CNX, RRC, EQT, and SWN, which have all performed admirably).
The big question for us is always when to pull the pin on a trade that has gone exceedingly
well for us? It's not an easy question to answer in a few lines. Frankly, we see considerable
more upside coming for natural gas producers for all the reasons discussed in the
preceding discussion.
SFL CORPORATION
SFL is the owner of:
Here is the split in revenue:
And its dividend history:
Putting that all together, the stock price (white line) doesn’t look so attractive, but when
you add back in dividends (assuming you reinvested the dividends), then the stock price
(orange line) looks significantly different.
Therein lies the power of dividends and compounding over the long term.
Taking compounding to another level: British American Tobacco going way back to 1997
with a stock price appreciation of 500%, but when you add back in dividends, the 500%
becomes 2,100%. Yip, just doing a “simple” thing like owning a tobacco stock and
reinvesting dividends.
Here is another favourite of ours: Globrands, a tobacco distributor in Israel. Ah, what lovely
teeth!
Almost as glamorous as reinvesting all those dividends!
OK, it is easy being a hindsight genius, but what do we think will do well over the next 15 or
so years? Hint: coal miners.
WEEK’S HUMOUR
Sincerely,
Chris MacIntosh
Founder & Editor In Chief, Capitalist Exploits Independent Investment Research
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— Issue #279: Aug 2023 —

IN THIS WEEK’S ISSUE

THERE GOES THE GLOBAL SOUTH…

Then there is this…

Russia-UAE trade ‘skyrocketing’ – Bloomberg

EXTENDING INTO LATAM

Moving south from Costa Rica...

NO LAND FOR COMMIES

Touché! Two things worry me, though.

Ah, the UN — that old Marxist institution.

You mean like growing food?

Thank goodness there are other banks, right? Right?!?

RUSSIAN MILITARY JUST CALLED THIS

The EcoHealth Alliance intermediary organisation plays a key role in implementing

65% of us would seriously harm/kill someone if we were ordered to by an authority figure.

Results: Sixty-five percent (two-thirds) of participants (i.e., teachers) continued to the

These give us a decent barometer with which to work.

Now you know!

DIGITAL BERLIN WALL

All of you across NATOstan, beware!

Dance to the NWO tune… or else.

“Ah, but they're not killing action, Chris?”

BRICS AREN’T HAPPY

Here’s an excerpt from Doomberg’s piece:

Figueres was responding to a speech by Al Jaber in which he said: ‘We must

Doomberg goes on to say this:

We concur wholeheartedly. It is fascinating to watch this awakening. For many of us, we

We have always adhered to the following:

CRUDE OIL VS CRUDE OIL EQUIVALENT

Here’s another way of looking at it:

As per usual, we (humans) always overdo a good thing:

CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

LGBTQ PORTFOLIO IMPACT

MAD MAG DICK, MEET BHP

1. Anton Oilfield Services

ANTON OILFIELD SERVICES

Did we mention a P/E of F-O-U-R times?

Furthermore, financial accumulation is likely to accelerate once speculators realise the

Here is the split in revenue:

And its dividend history:

Almost as glamorous as reinvesting all those dividends!

© Copyright 2023 by Capitalist Exploits

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