Insider Weekly Issue 186 Jan 2021

— Issue #186: January 2021 —
Greetings, and welcome to this week’s edition of the Insider Weekly.
Lachy from Mongolia (he’s an Ozzie who is checking out and moving to Patagonia) sent me
the nicest email and this stunner of a photo. This is what happens to light in winter at
-35°C.
Subscriber Richard, who is located in “Gulag Boris” sent through this one from Gaza. Our
condolences, Richard. Gaza looks better right now.
© 2021 Capex Administrative Ltd. | Unauthorised sharing may result in limb loss 1
And one more, from my good friend and colleague Scott Osheroff in Tashkent, a place, I
hasten to add, which is not enjoying any sort of lockdown and where life is trucking along.
Prelude:
This past week has been nothing short of stunning.
Big tech has shown its true colours. The “purge” has been breathtaking. Conservative
voices everywhere have been purged with well over 100,000 and counting wiped,
including all their history.
It’s interesting how seemingly different systems have produced similar realities. In China,
the government controls social media with an iron fist. In the West, social media controls
the government… and that iron fist is about to become ever more so.
Both systems are able to create a social credit system that’s capable of enforcing
ideological conformity. China has implemented it, now the West is busy doing so. Both
systems are totalitarian in nature and both lead to inevitable genocide. China has its
Uyghur population that lives in “re-education camps” and is forcibly sterilised while their
organs are harvested. To believe the same won’t ultimately manifest itself in “liberal
democracies” of the West is to bet against human nature and history. This is not a warning.
This is a lesson of history.
I think it appropriate to quote Abe before we dig into this week's issue.
We are there. Right here, right now.
And lest you think chaos is unique to America... no, this is global. Here is a snapshot for you.
There is much more, but you get the picture.
IN THIS WEEK’S ISSUE
● The “cleansing”
● Bifurcated internet
● Disaster capitalism
● Mother Russia
● Commodities: poetry in motion
● No, we’re not an oil service company
● Tesla beyond rational reason
● High dividend appetizer
● Oil price drives the narrative
● Puts on the Nasdaq?
● The Big Five:
1. Golden Agri Resources
2. Arafura Resources
3. Transocean
4. Baker Technology
5. Sinofert
The Cleansing
Last year, in a special report entitled “What Happens Next” I warned that there was a real
danger in letting the extreme Marxists keep getting away with things.
In fact, I referenced Professor Bret Weinstein in his testimony to Congress:
“This isn’t about free speech, and this only tangentially about college campuses. This is
about a breakdown in the basic logic of civilization, and it's spreading. College campuses
may be the first dramatic battle, but of course this is going to find its way into the courts.
It’s already found its way into the tech sector. It’s going to find its way to the highest level
of governments if we’re not careful, and it actually does jeopardize the ability of
civilization to continue functioning.”
It is absolutely shocking how far things have descended since that report… and in such a
short time.
Now here we are.
I am going to assume you are already aware of the absolute blitz of censorship by Silicon
Valley Billionaires on anyone diverging from the new woke theocracy.
Beginning with the sitting president of the United States but running all the way down to
independent journalists, radio show hosts, and then, of course, the free speech site Parler
was neutered as Google, Amazon and Apple all banned the app from their respective
platforms. Prior to last week it is worth nothing that this was one of the fastest growing
apps in the world. As the Marxists censorship ramped up Parler became one of the very
few alternatives not run by one of the Silicon Valley monopolies.
Their crime? Inciting violence at Capitol Hill by firstly allowing the President a platform and
then allowing conservative voices on the platform. The double standards are nothing new,
of course.
This T-shirt can still be bought on Amazon as of this report:
The CEO has since fled his home and gone into hiding with his family after receiving death
threats.
Some additional anecdotal things to ponder. ABS news reporter Rick Klein:
“Trump will be an ex-president in 13 days. The fact is that getting rid of Trump is the easy
part. Cleansing the movement he commands is going to be something else.”
Klein tweeted on Thursday, linking to a story claiming the US Capitol breach on

Wednesday exposed “threats [that] will outlast” the president. The piece went on to call for
“justice” against “those involved in an insurrection.”
Klein also doubled down on the comments, writing, “Cleansing the movement he commands,
or getting rid of what he represents to so many Americans, is going to be something else.”
Former CIA heads are not immune either from getting fired up with the new Gestapo.
Over in the business world the editor of Forbes has an idea:
"Let it be known to the business world," he wrote. If you hire any of Trump’s fog machines,
fabulists or spokes-critters... "Forbes will assume that everything your company or firm
talks about is a lie."
Naval Ravikant understands where this is headed. He is one of the very few in Silicon
Valley who understands where this leads.
But naturally it won’t stop with censorship of views that don't fit the woke theocracy. They
will purge those who not only disagree but have disagreed in the past. Retribution. The
mafia use the same tactic. You can’t ever have dissension, and so you show others that not
only is it dangerous to think of disagreeing but that anything you say or do will be pored
over in the future to determine if you are a “good citizen”.
One of the components that has been successfully deployed throughout man's often
morbid history is public shaming and persecution.
The Bolsheviks, Pol Pot’s regime, the Nazis, Mao’s Great Leap Forward. They all began with
exactly the same underlying trends.
Absolutely nothing being said right now by “progressives” should come as a surprise to
anyone that has studied the annals of history. I challenge you to find me just one
“progressive” socialist movement which over the course of history has not turned into
genocide.
You really think that this can’t or won't happen in the West?
This time they’ll us covid and “health safety” as a premise to imprison and kill those who
disagree with the new woke theocracy.
Think I'm kidding?
I present to you a new piece of legislature introduced in the state of NY:
Assembly Bill A416
“Relates to the removal of cases, contacts and carriers of communicable diseases who are
potentially dangerous to the public health”
This here is a decent 7-minute rundown on what this entails:
How will they kill?
Well, bullets are so yesterday. A forced vaccine which subsequently causes multiple other
health problems, not easily tied to the vaccine allows for plausible deniability.
German virologist Doctor Sucharit Bhakdi, the former Emeritus Head of the Institute for
Medical Microbiology and Hygiene at the Johannes-Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz,
Germany explains that the scientific “standard” for vaccine creation is four to five years.
The prominent physician dismisses the notion that a coronavirus vaccine so hastily
developed could be safe.
Most people are sleepwalking into a catastrophe as they refuse to take responsibility for
their own lives, preferring to “trust the experts” despite the fact that the experts have
proven dead wrong all through this, and despite the fact that when independent experts
who disagree with the puppets put up for us to obey (who are in every occasion funded by a
group benefitting from the narrative) are immediately censored and or have hit pieces
done on them.
Today if you don’t bow to the gods of fear, panic, and outrage you will increasingly find
yourself marginalized. So you choose to either be marginalised or swallow the red pill and
hope like hell someone will make it all go away.
Don’t be one of those people.
A friend recently commented the following to me (you know who you are :-)...
Worth considering recent human history:
● people are comfortable (enough)

● people think it won't affect them
● high time preference (won't affect them now)
● people get scared but hold out hope for someone to save them
● people compromise even ratting out their families because they're scared and
trying to save their own skin
● people get loaded into railcars
● a psychopath gets bankster funding to take his country to war against the offending
evildoers
● people rally behind their savior
● war
● people stop getting loaded into railcars
● people rebuild
● the cycle continues
Here are Albanians fleeing communism.
We are not yet at the fleeing stage.. Not en masse at least. Not yet.
People love freedom. The issue is that there are few places left to flee to.
It all started with lockdowns on the pretext of a pandemic, which I’ve taken great lengths in
the course of these missives to show you is anything but.
I’m so sick of writing this stuff. I truly am. As a friend mentioned to me the other day, if you
believe that government lockdowns are merely the work of incompetent officials who can’t
think past their nose, that is one thing. If you, however, believe that it isn’t incompetence at
all but part of their strategy, then the inevitable terrifying reality hits you like a
sledgehammer, and your entire worldview changes in a heartbeat.
I see many of my privileged fellow money guys who will not miss a meal, who don’t tuck
their children into bed at night with a deep gnawing angst, wondering how they will
manage to maintain that roof over their precious heads. I see them jump onto Twitter and
chastise others for not locking down and following the rules. So brave. And then I see them
rail against the government and Fed for sending these people $2,000 checks. Why?
Because it’ll hurt their bond portfolios with all this government spending.
And what they fail to realise, as they sit in comfort sipping a fine wine after dinner, is that
millions of people, men in particular, worldwide are being put in a position where they have
nothing left to lose. The Arab spring was sprung because the price of wheat rocketing
meant they could no longer afford to feed their beautiful and much loved families. In short,
they had nothing left to lose.
My proposal to anyone championing lockdowns (my fellow finance industry guys) as well as
any politician is that they are to experience the same situation as any other person being
forced to not work. 100% elimination of their income with the potential that even when
lockdowns are lifted they may not have any business to return to. If they’re retired rich,
living on dividends and rental income, same thing. 100% elimination of income. I ask you,
how long they’d be championing this insanity?
One thing is for sure. The seeds that have been sown, and are being sown, promise to reap
a harvest that will require very careful navigation for all of us. This Insider family is one that
covers the world with folks from all walks of life, some with wealth, some with little, but
we’re all going to be challenged, and I sincerely hope that we can help each other through
what is coming.
Bifurcated Internet
The boldness and brashness of Silicon Valley oligarchs extends to their overreach into our
personal lives.
I realise most people probably, myself included, won't or don't pay enough attention to
updated terms and conditions. Given what’s taking place many are much more vigilant and
WhatsApp’s new terms and conditions are quite frankly Orwellian.
I’m not going to go into what they are or how they build profiles on you as you can easily
use your two fat thumbs and Duckduckgo to find the nitty gritty. What I want to discuss
are the second order consequences of this.
In a nutshell the Silicon Valley billionaires have just shown their incredible power, but
nothing happens in a vacuum, and they are not the only folks seeking power. They clearly
represent what could be argued as the singles biggest threat to standing nation states.
And so it wasn’t a surprise to me to see those at risk realising that “hey, by Gawd if we let
these guys control the citizens, they can control what they believe and what they don't believe”
and THAT is a threat.
I present to you Turkey under Erdogan.
“Turkey's Competition Authority opened an investigation into Facebook and WhatsApp

and suspended their new data-sharing rules.
Last week, WhatsApp forced many users to agree to new "privacy rules" for sharing
personal data with data-hungry Facebook companies.”
And over in India the Confederation of India traders, a large industry group, has called on
the Government to ban both Facebook and WhatsApp in India.
“CAIT Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal said, "The changed privacy policy of
WhatsApp is an encroachment on privacy of an individual and runs against the basic
fundamentals of Constitution of India and therefore the CAIT has demanded immediate
intervention of the government."
And this.
“North Idaho internet provider blocks Facebook, Twitter on its service because the
platforms are engaged in the censorship of their customers and information.”
Many will not recall it but when Facebook bought WhatsApp, Zuckerberg promised not to
force WhatsApp users to share data. He just broke... no, shattered that promise. No
surprises there.
Users all around the world have flocked to alternative apps that respect privacy better. We
love freedom.
In the first week of January, Telegram surpassed 500 million monthly active users. After
that it kept growing: 25 million new users joined Telegram in the last 72 hours alone. These
new users came from across the globe – 38% from Asia, 27% from Europe, 21% from Latin
America and 8% from MENA.
People no longer want to exchange their privacy for free services. They no longer want to
be held hostage by tech monopolies that seem to think they can get away with anything as
long as their apps have a critical mass of users. Consider the data gathering going on
mentioned previously in this Weekly, and then consider that by using “free” you are going
on lists and those lists can and will be used. We can’t even begin to imagine what for.
This is from the CEO of Telegram:
With half a billion active users and accelerating growth, Telegram has become the largest
refuge for those seeking a communication platform committed to privacy and security.
Those of you who have used Telegram for the last several years know we’ve been
consistent both when it comes to defending private data and to improving our apps. For
those of you who just joined and are wondering what Telegram stands for, I’d like to quote
my post from 2018 (https://telegram.org/blog/200-million):
You – our users – have been and will always be our only priority. Unlike other popular
apps, Telegram doesn’t have shareholders or advertisers to report to. We don’t do deals
with marketers, data miners or government agencies. Since the day we launched in August
2013 we haven’t disclosed a single byte of our users' private data to third parties.
We operate this way because we don’t regard Telegram as an organization or an app. For
us, Telegram is an idea; it is the idea that everyone on this planet has a right to be free.
But this is a war. And the oligarchs and the woke mob will fight back.
How it will be portrayed by the MSM.
Nazis are moving underground to decentralized apps so as to hide from the people. They
are plotting terrorism, just like Trump. Loopy? Sure, but this is out of the East German
handbook. Why would it be any different this time just because we have new technology
now.
Here is an example:
"It's absolutely concerning," said Dipayan Ghosh, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy
School. "And it was only to be expected that extremists pushed off of the mainstream
social media platforms would move to end-to-end encrypted messaging platforms."
And this:
Rest assured, these radical Marxists will not rest until you have zero privacy. If you think
about it social media is precisely how socialism works.
Pushback...
Poland: Polish government officials have denounced the deactivation of President Trump's
social media accounts and said a draft law being readied in Poland will make it illegal for
tech companies to take similar actions in the country.
"Censorship of free speech, which is the domain of totalitarian and authoritarian regimes, is now
returning in the form of a new, commercial mechanism to combat those who think differently,"
Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki added.
Taken to extremes, what we may see is a bifurcated internet where, depending on where
you’re located, you’ll be allowed/disallowed to see content. In other words, a China-like
digital wall.
And in case you’re wondering, none of this is bullish for these tech giants.
What am I doing personally? Always, always run a VPN. I use https://hide.me/en/
I deleted WhatsApp and already had both Telegram and Signal. They are now my go-to
apps for messaging and calling. Skype, I ditched too. I’ve used Brave web browser for at
least two years now and I use DuckDuckGo for search. Personal mail is with Protonmail.
Disaster Capitalism
I’m going to tell you a story. It’s a true story recited to me many years ago now by a gent
who runs a private security company in Africa and who formerly worked for another firm
doing the same work. They provide protection, recon, services and have protected many
African dictators in their course of work.
I will hasten to add that this gent was not a friend, just in case you think the company I keep
may be of the less savoury kind.
While working for his former employer, when these guys needed a boost in income, they
kidnapped an oil exec in Northern Africa. No kidding. They then approached the company
offering their “expert services” in “extraction”. The “mission” was successful and they
subsequently secured long-term contracts providing all manner of security services.
The reason I mention this is because this sort of thing happens far more than you’d think
and not just in Africa.
I present to you:
Bill Gates joins Blackstone in bid to buy British private jet services firm
“According to a study by academics at Lund University, Gates is one of the world’s biggest
“super-emitters” due to his regular private jet travel. He took 59 flights in one year
travelling more than 200,000 miles, according to the report, which estimated that Gates’
private jet travel emitted about 1,600 tonnes of carbon dioxide. That compares with a
global average of less than five tonnes per person. Researchers have found that private
jets emit up to 40 times as much carbon dioxide per passenger than commercial jets.”
You will note that Gates has been at the forefront of championing lockdowns and his web
of companies and media influence is nothing short of stunning.
What better way to increase your control and monopolise even more industries than
ensuring lockdowns would destroy businesses only to be able to go buy them for cents on
the dollar.
A Media bought and paid for
A Columbia Journalism Review expose revealed that, to control global journalism, Bill
Gates has steered over $250 million to the BBC, NPR, NBC, Al Jazeera, ProPublica,
National Journal, The Guardian, the New York Times, Univision, Medium, the Financial
Times, The Atlantic, the Texas Tribune, Gannett, Washington Monthly, Le Monde, Center
for Investigative Reporting, Pulitzer Center, National Press Foundation, International
Center for Journalists, and a host of other groups. To conceal his influence, Gates also
funneled unknown sums via subgrants for contracts to other press outlets.
His press bribes have paid off. During the pandemic, bought and brain-dead news outlets
have treated Bill Gates as a public health expert—despite his lack of medical training or
regulatory experience.
Gates also funds an army of independent fact checkers including the Poynter Institute and
Gannett —which use their fact-checking platforms to “silence detractors” and to “debunk”
as “false conspiracy theories” and “misinformation,” charges that Gates has championed
and invested in biometric chips, vaccine identification systems, satellite surveillance, and
COVID vaccines.
And while we are on the topic of disaster capitalism. Look who’s been silently buying up all
the food.
This is particularly interesting given Gates' own admission that he wants to have a world
where nobody can work, play, travel or buy food without proving their vaccine status. So
he forces you to take the vaccine (already taking place), because if you don’t, you won’t be
allowed to travel, work, enter public spaces, and so forth. Then he controls the tech via his
maniacal ID2020 initiative, and finally he owns the food supply. And so when you say nyet
to the vaccine and ID2020, you’ll not be deemed “safe” to buy food.
Now, I realise at this point that you may be thinking to yourself, “Jeezuz Chris, you’ve lost the
plot.” I wish I had and frankly, if I’d listened to me saying these things 5 years ago, I’d have
called the men in white coats. So what's going on? Easy. Go and listen to what Gates himself
has been saying time and again. You’ll find it rather enlightening.
On that note I can recommend The Corbett report which has done a great job of
researching Gates organisations and initiatives. You can find it here.
We will and do however remain very, very bullish on agriculture.
Mother Russia
Digital central bank currencies are coming… and fast. The governments of the West have
completely blown the show. Pre-plandemic/scamdemicpandemic budgets were as
unsustainable as a flying pig. We all knew it had to end, even while it defied logic.
In the meantime, Russia was doing a very different job. It was de-dolarising its economy,
paying down debt and saving for a rainy day. And it’s raining.
As my colleague Lyn Alden mentioned: “All in all Russia has over $580 billion in total reserves
across assets, which is about a third of their GDP and about three quarters of their broad money
supply. That's rather high FX reserves by most metrics.”
Be like Russia. We remain long.
Commodities: Poetry in Motion
It’s 2010 and your head is still spinning in the wake of the GFC and the Nasdaq is flirting
with the 2000 level, still some 50% below its 2000 high. Could you have ever imagined that
10 years later that high would be breached?
Try and be honest with yourself. Remember that time. It was hard to find anyone on the
planet who believed that the Nasdaq would be higher 5 years later. And there was no one
in the known universe that had the remotest inkling that the Nasdaq would be up some
550% 10 years later. And that is precisely what it did.
What is the point of the foregoing discussion? Well, let’s have a look at basic
materials/commodities. Is there anyone out there who believes that the 2008 highs will be
breached in the CRB Index?
And what about the CRB relative to the S&P 500? Will that relative high be breached
within the next 10 years?
If there is one thing (among many) that we have learnt after years of experience, markets
tend to go to places where few expect.
We could argue that the upside in commodity markets over the next 10 years will exceed
the performance from 2000 to 2008. Why? Essentially, three reasons:
● Monetary debasement. The world is firmly addicted to creating additional debt as a

solution to the governments idiotic lockdown policies blamed on the corona.
● Fiscal spending. Closely related to monetary debasement. Governments have
warmed to the idea that easy monetary policy has reached its limits and to create
growth, fiscal spending will have to pick up dramatically.
● Supply destruction. Those same government lockdowns have resulted in significant
reductions in supply of many commodities. Then, on top of that, the woke hysteria
cutely renamed as ESG/renewable theme has seen many commodity markets being
starved of capital. The US shale industry has peaked and is now in decline.
Now, you don’t need to even agree with us. In fact, you may disagree. That’s fine, but
whatever the reason, it is increasingly difficult to ignore that something big and powerful
appears to be building in commodity markets. We present to you a tidy bunch of graphs
below in the hope that it gives you a flavour for what is happening.
Foodstuffs
Few are probably aware that foodstuffs are already trading at 5-10-year highs.
Softs commodities
With the exception of a few, industrial softs are close to multi-year highs:
Base metals
While most are aware of what copper has done, lesser known base metals have rocketed
higher:
Energy
Contrary to popular belief, 2020 was a very good year for energy markets
What we find amusing is that v irtually no one is talking about what is happening in the
charts above. It’s like a silent bull market.
Perhaps rising commodity prices won’t attract any attention until crude starts making
multi-month highs.
So we sit and wait patiently. All the stars are aligning.
No, We’re Not an Oil Service Company

In a bid to become “woke,” likely to appease the intolerant theocracy, yet another company
tries to disguise its principal hydrocarbon based business via a name change. National
Oilwell Varco now becomes NOV:
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE: NOV) announced today plans to
change its corporate name to "NOV Inc.", effective January 1, 2021. The Company’s
ticker symbol, "NOV", will remain unchanged.
"Our Company has a long and proud legacy of innovation and technology dating back to
the earliest days of the oilfield. We are committed to continuously improving the drilling
and production operations of our customers," stated Clay Williams, Chairman, President
and CEO. "As the world looks to expand its energy portfolio to lower-carbon sources, we
find our core engineering, manufacturing and project management expertise is providing
new and exciting opportunities within this transition. The corporate name change reflects
the Company’s broadening mission within energy to continue to drive economic efficiency
and safety, as we have done for decades within traditional oil and gas."
Ah yes, there is that “transition” buzzword again.
This echoes of Arch Coal’s name change a while ago to Arch Resources. It is beyond
rational reason why companies do this and spend waste a whole lot of money on PR to
reflect the name change. They are perfectly legal businesses, paying taxes all above board.
Furthermore, does management really think that investors are more likely to invest in
NOV after its name change when its business hasn’t changed one bit? Maybe I’m giving too
much credit to investors. After all they bought all sorts of garbage when companies
changed their name to reflect the word “gold” in the last boom and more recently did the
same thing with “pot” so who knows? Either way, this “transition” is anything but. It’s the
same woke nonsense when you dig into “renewables”.
Here is NOV’s core segments:
This name changing is showing us management don’t have a spine and are virtue signaling
to the intensifying ESG “movement”.
To us this is just another contrary sign of how out of favour the hydrocarbon sector is and
how much value there is to be had by investing in the sector.
By the way, we believe that NOV offers huge value. They are well financed with about 75%
of their debt being backed by cash. We’re thinking that when majors realize they have a
whole bunch of obsolete equipment that needs replacing, then companies like NOV will
have order books the size of Webster’s Dictionary.
We know there is more to life than a chart, but it is your opportunity to get in at the same
level offered to folks some 20 years ago.
Tesla: Beyond Rational Reason

We feel like a horribly scratched vinyl record repeat over and over again. But we want folks
to remember these times because they are, I assure you, unique.
We have sort of been through this before during the TMT bubble some 20 years ago, and it
is experience gained from that time which guides us on our journey today. Well, that and
reading a lot of history. We say “sort of” because we don’t think anything that occurred
during the TMT/dot-com bubble comes close to rivaling Tesla’s truly bizarre price
behavior.
So Tesla is now essentially the fifth biggest company by market cap in the US.
And it is nearly twice as big as Johnson & Johnson. JNJ’s revenue is about $80bn and
income is some $18bn per year. Tesla’s revenue is some $28bn and income… well, let’s say
$1bn (although that is highly debatable and their financial spaghetti masquerading as
reality is really rather amazing). JNJ sits on a forward P/E of 20x (not cheap) and Tesla
345x.
To say that Tesla has to grow like no company has ever grown before since the East India
Company in the early 1600s is the biggest understatement ever since man first walked
upright.
Contrary signs. Gloating in public. Ah, Mr Market is listening:
Good Lord! If my experience is anything to go by, if I ever gloated like this, I would be hit
hard by Mr Market, handed a good lesson in why you should shut your mouth. While Mr
Market is the king of capitalism he doesn’t like anyone straying too far from the pack.
While we are on the subject of pixyland valuations, here is some more bizarreness. Plug
Power (a maker of Fuel Cells) has a market cap of $24bn and revenue of $300m. It doesn’t
make any money, never has, and only survives due to constant cash injections from
stockholders. Now compare this to Kroger (also with a market cap of $24m), courtesy of
Wiki:
American retail company founded by Bernard Kroger in 1883 in Cincinnati, Ohio. It is the
United States' largest supermarket by revenue ($121.16 billion for fiscal year 2019), and
the second-largest general retailer (behind Walmart). Kroger is also the fifth-largest
retailer in the world and the fourth largest American-owned private employer in the
United States. Kroger is ranked #23 on the Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United
States corporations by total revenue.
As of November 30, 2020, Kroger operates, either directly or through its subsidiaries,
2,750 supermarkets and multi-department stores. Kroger's headquarters are in
downtown Cincinnati. It maintains markets in 35 states and the District of Columbia, with
store formats that include hypermarkets, supermarkets, superstores, department stores,
and 170 jewelry stores (782 convenience stores were sold to EG Group in 2018).
Kroger-branded grocery stores are located in the Midwestern and Southern United States.
Kroger operates 35 food processing or manufacturing facilities, 1,585 supermarket fuel
centers, 2,256 pharmacies, and 225 The Little Clinic in-store medical clinics.
If you thought that American politics has gone completely insane, well it has got nothing on
world financial markets. Clinically insanity comes to mind. We are lost for words (and have
been so for some time).
Investment implications? The behavior of Tesla and Plug Power (to mention just two) gives
you an impression of the amount of capital that has gone into chasing the “Green
Revolution”, and how capital starved the traditional/conventional energy sectors have
become (oil, gas, coal, uranium). It would also seem to us that humans are fully convinced
that the traditional energy sources will not be needed after 2030 (or something like that).
I don’t know whether this is an “investment implication,” however the extremes in

movement of capital into the ESG theme could well be replicated in a number of sectors we
have been banging on about and patiently invested in over the last 4 years, such as
uranium. Uranium mining stocks are so small and illiquid. As an example, Plug Power’s
market cap is bigger than all publicly traded uranium stocks.
One wonders how high uranium miners will go if just a teensy tiny bit of the capital piled
into renewables/ESG goes looking for a home in uranium miners. Perhaps we’re getting a
taste already?
Paladin, Deep Yellow, Bannerman, Boss, Vimy, & Lotus
And no, we’re not taking profits anytime soon here. This baby is only getting warmed up.
High Dividend Appetiser

We are in the final stages of putting together the “Insider Dividend Portfolio,” a collection
of stocks paying dividends from earnings, financially sound, and fundamentally cheap.
One of our hurdles of stocks making the list is that we wanted stocks with a minimum
dividend yield of 10%. We will discuss this in more detail when we put together a special
report on this “portfolio”. Here is an appetiser, a couple of stocks that are part of the list:
Globrands Ltd: tobacco, Israel. ROE 89%, ROA 25%, P/E 6.7, dividend yield 18%.
From Reuters:
Globrands Ltd is an Israel-based retail distribution company. The Company uses

technological and human infrastructure that is coupled with the Van Sale system. The Van
Sale method enables Globrands Ltd to assume the overall responsibility for every brand it
markets, from the stage of import through the marketing setup and up until the final sale
and post-sale stages. Globrands Ltd serves mainly the tobacco and food industries, such as
food chains, convenience stores, kiosks and individual selling points. It serves as the
exclusive importer and distributor of Japan Tobacco International (JTI) products in Israel,
including the cigarette brands Camel, Winston, LD and More. It is also the importer and
distributor of British American Tobacco (BAT) products in Israel, including the Kent,
Pall-Mall, Vogue, Rothmans, Lucky Strike and Golden Virginia brands. In the food and
confectionery category it represents multinational corporations such as Wrigley and
Unilever, among others.
Inter RAO Lietuva AB: electricity supplier, Lithuania, ROE 62%, ROA 24%, P/E 5.3x,
dividend yield 17%.
Inter RAO Lietuva AB is a Lithuania-based company active in the utilities sector. It is an

electricity supplier in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It operates a wind farm located in
west Lithuania. The Company is engaged in the import and export of electricity, wholesale
of electricity in the Baltic countries based on contracts and in the electricity exchange,
retail trade of electricity in the Baltic countries, regulation and balancing services or
suppliers and transmission system operators, wind energy, and investment. The Company
cooperates with partners in the Baltic and Nordic countries, Russia, Belarus and Poland. It
operates such subsidiaries as Inter RAO Latvia, Inter RAO Esti, IRL Polska and IRL Wind.
China Sanjiang Fine Chemicals: industrial chemicals, Hong Kong. ROE 23%, ROA 9%, P/E
3x, dividend yield 13%.
From Reuters:
China Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Company Limited is an investment holding company

principally engaged in the manufacture and supplying of ethylene oxide and other
products. Other products include ethylene glycol, ethylene, propylene and surfactants.
The Company is also engaged in the provision of surfactants processing service. Through
its subsidiaries, the Company is also engaged in the construction and management of a
pipe network.
Well, that is just a taste, the best is yet to come (to be discussed next week).
Oil: Price Drives the Narrative

Last year (after February) there were only about 8 people in the world who would dare
mutter a bullish word on the oil. Oil was dead, toast, in mortal decline, etc. Now that the
price has risen a little, well guess what? Bullish musings start to appear.
Yes, seemingly “against all odds” oil creeps up. It’s now above where it was when the
corona hit in March last year.
And gasoline has pulled back most of its losses.
Our views on oil have only strengthened over the last 12 months, and we believe that the
50% pull back in oil stocks in 2020 was a gift from the market gods. The biggest issue for us
in the oil and gas sector is which stocks to pick because there is so much value.
Puts on the Nasdaq?

We often get asked the question, “Markets seem over extended. How about buying some puts
to provide downside protection?”
We always encourage folks to stick with their trading strategy. If you are a value investor,
then look for value situations and don’t be concerned about what happens with the S&P,
Nasdaq, etc.
If you are a genuine long-term investor and come across a basket of stocks that you believe
will be significantly higher on a 5-10-year time frame, then you shouldn’t be worried about
what the Nasdaq or any other stock index is doing. If you can’t find much value, then raise
cash, sit and wait for the next “disaster” to happen. If there is lots of value to be had, then
go fully invested.
But for what it is worth, let’s investigate the exercise of buying put “protection” on the
Nasdaq. Oh, and if you’re not a trader and don’t trade options, feel free to skip this part.
We will only look at the longest dated options (December 2023).
So an ATM put 310 strike is $55. That’s a 110 point/35% fall to make 100% and a 50% fall
to make 200%. That’s not a great deal (asymmetric setup).
One could do a bear put spread buying the 300 strike and selling the 200. That would cost
about $35. So at 200 (or below at expiry) this would be a 185% return for a 35% fall. That’s
better but that is as much as you could make.
To get to the point. A 10% allocation to puts on the Nasdaq isn’t going to provide you with
much protection.
The problem here isn’t that the Nasdaq isn’t stupidly expensive. Of course it is. The
problem is that executing on that view isn’t that simple. I often get subscribers send me
reports from newsletter writers. I’ll not “diss” any of them. Some are great, many are
garbage, but consistently I see that the story sold is that markets are super nutty and you
can make enough money to buy a Lambo if you just follow XYZ. And XYZ when we look into
it is just not realistic or even well understood by the authors. The fact is that options aren’t
cheap. One really has to wait until implied volatility has come down to 15 before long-term
options become attractive.
Nasdaq Volatility Index
Honestly, rather than waste 10% of your portfolio on Nasdaq (or S&P 500) puts (because I
do think it’s likely to be a waste), we think it is a way better idea to look for deep value
setups with asymmetric returns. Speaking of which, take a look at this week’s Big Five
candidates.
THE BIG FIVE

Five interesting long-term setups — unloved and totally off the radar of the average fund
manager. Take a closer look, my friends!
These are equities that are coming across our radar as we constantly, week in, week out
monitor global markets. They're not positions we’ve bought yet but rather bringing you
into our world of assessing and seeking out deep value as we work through a constant
iterative process at Glenorchy Capital. Hence view it as a window into the world of asset
managers going through the steps.
FROM OUR TRADING DESK
1. Golden Agri Resources
2. Arafura Resources
3. Tranocean
4. Baker Technology
5. Sinofert
Golden Agri Resources

One of the world’s biggest producers of palm oil. Palm oil, you might say? What has that got
to do with life as we know it? Well, in short, everything. 90% of processed foods contain
palm oil and a whole bunch of other stuff like cosmetics and even Coke. Frankly, the world
would be a whole lot better off without it. Coke, that is, but that would mean 80% of stuff
on supermarket shelves would be gone, and that simply isn’t likely to happen.
“Food” (processed rubbish) items containing palm oil:
But wait, there is more.
It’s obscure little stocks like Golden Agri that give great asymmetry.
Yes, if you were lucky enough to have caught Golden Agri in late 2001, it didn’t take much
to produce a 10-bagger or 20-bagger.
As discussed above, palm oil (the commodity) is racing higher:
Oh, and one other thing... When folks are hard up on cash (that’s what is coming and fast)
they eat what is cheap. And what is cheap is garbage, and when that happens, palm oil
demand rockets.
Arafura Resources
Developing one of the world’s largest rare earth mines, specifically neodymium and
praseodymium (NdPr). It's bizarre. We don’t think much has changed over the last few
months but “all of a sardine”... Boom! It’s up 100% within a month. When we say “nothing
has changed”, it’s the same story we talked about in 2017 and all the way along. But now,
it’s thunderbirds are go. Maybe it’s the Biden “Green New Deal” thing. I don’t know. Like I
said, the bullish thesis we discussed back in late 2017 is the same story today.
Investing in the REM theme is so simple. One can count REM stocks on two hands: Lynas,
Arafura, Northern Minerals, Australian Strategic Mat, Peek Resources, Hastings,
Greenlands, MP Materials (the relisted Molycorp), and that is about it. No, really. That
really is it. How cool is that? Such a tiny selection. All micro caps and you capture the entire
sector. And when this sector runs, as we believe it will, watch out because it’ll surprise even
us… and we’re expecting it.
Maybe we should now shut-up about Arafura given that it’s starting to move. The time to
buy was when it was sub 0.10c (lucky us and those who were with us back then). And yes, I
know it’s not “fun” buying when it has just bolted 100%, but that being said, we think the
move is just getting started, so there you have it.
Perhaps the rally in Arafura isn’t so “random” after all. Neodymium prices have more or
less doubled over the last 12 months.
Transocean
When even we “dare to tread” in a sector, then it probably represents the ultimate in
asymmetry.
We mention Transocean for two reasons. If we are right on “oil being above $100 within 5
years,” then the upside offered in many (if not all) the oil service stocks that have survived
thus far will be one for the record books. If Transocean survives (we think it has a good
chance of making it), then we’re looking at a 10x return before even considering taking
profit.
Of course, if one was lucky (crazy) to have bought RIG a few months ago at $1 then if it was
to get to $30, then it’s a 30x return.
With payoffs like that all one needs is to get a “couple right” and it will make up for more
than a few “bangers”. Like Ensco (yep, we can pick ‘em).
Baker Technology
A Singapore based company providing services to the offshore oil and gas industry. They
mainly specialize in constructing jackups and lift boats. Yes, you may think that investing in
an offshore oil and gas engineering company is a dumb idea. However, offshore oil and gas
isn’t going away and is likely to see a huge resurgence in activity as the price of oil
continues to rise.
Furthermore, this company serves the Asia Pacfic region, one which is likely to see
significant activity over the coming years. The company has no debt and remains cash flow
positive. Stuffing small holdings of companies like Baker into your portfolio will likely reap
huge surprises on a 5-10-year time frame. Also, take note of companies like Mencast
Holdings and MTQ Corp — both listed on the SGX.
Sinofert
China’s biggest fertilizer company. It’s well financed and cheap (P/E 8x, P/B 0.6x).
Obviously it’s a call on where agriculture is heading in China. We don’t think companies like
Sinofert have much correlation with the S&P 500 and they are great for diversifying your
risk. Take a look at what happened from 2006 to 2008. Yes, it did go from about 1.0 to 8.0
within a couple of years and it could well do the same again. Granted 8x returns is “pie in
the sky” stuff but doubling or tripling your money from current levels doesn’t seem like a
tall ask, especially given where we thing agriculture in general is headed.
And with that, fine folks, we wish you all a wonderful week.
Sincerely,
Chris MacIntosh
Founder & Editor In Chief, Capitalist Exploits Independent Investment Research

Founder & Managing Partner, Glenorchy Capital
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— Issue #186: January 2021 —

Greetings, and welcome to this week’s edition of the Insider Weekly.

This past week has been nothing short of stunning.

We are there. Right here, right now.

In fact, I referenced Professor Bret Weinstein in his testimony to Congress:

This T-shirt can still be bought on Amazon as of this report:

Klein tweeted on Thursday, linking to a story claiming the US Capitol breach on

Over in the business world the editor of Forbes has an idea:

Think I'm kidding?

I present to you a new piece of legislature introduced in the state of NY:

Assembly Bill A416

This here is a decent ​7-minute rundown​ on what this entails:

Don’t be one of those people.

Worth considering recent human history:

● people are comfortable (enough)

Here are Albanians fleeing communism.

I present to you Turkey under Erdogan.

“Turkey's Competition Authority opened an investigation into Facebook and WhatsApp

This is from the CEO of Telegram:

How it will be portrayed by the MSM.

A Media bought and paid for

We will and do however remain very, very bullish on agriculture.

Be like Russia. We remain long.

Commodities: Poetry in Motion

● Monetary debasement. The world is firmly addicted to creating additional debt as a

So we sit and wait patiently. All the stars are aligning.

No, We’re Not an Oil Service Company

Ah yes, there is that “transition” buzzword again.

Here is NOV’s core segments:

Tesla: Beyond Rational Reason

Contrary signs. Gloating in public. Ah, Mr Market is listening:

I don’t know whether this is an “investment implication,” however the extremes in

High Dividend Appetiser

Globrands Ltd is an Israel-based retail distribution company. The Company uses

Inter RAO Lietuva AB is a Lithuania-based company active in the utilities sector. It is an

China Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Company Limited is an investment holding company

Oil: Price Drives the Narrative

And gasoline has pulled back most of its losses.

Puts on the Nasdaq?

We will only look at the longest dated options (December 2023).

Nasdaq Volatility Index

THE BIG FIVE

Golden Agri Resources

“Food” (processed rubbish) items containing palm oil:

As discussed above, palm oil (the commodity) is racing higher:

Founder & Editor In Chief, Capitalist Exploits Independent Investment Research

© Copyright 2021 by Capitalist Exploits

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This here is a decent 7-minute rundown on what this entails: