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Kearney Post COVID-19 Global Consumer Market Outlook and Supply Chain Reshaping
Kearney Post COVID-19 Global Consumer Market Outlook and Supply Chain Reshaping
May 2020
1 2
2
1. Consumer market
outlook
3
Before COVID-19: Retail sales of top 10 consumption countries
(2004–2019E, $ billion)
4,500
World consumption growth 4,000 US
China
3,500
was mostly driven by the US 3,000
Japan
India
and China, followed by India 2,500
2,000
Germany
France
and Japan 1,500 Russia
1,000 UK
500 Brazil
0 Italy
2011
2007
2012
2017
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019E
moves post COVID-19 will shape
future global consumption trend
YoY retail sales growth contribution1
(%)
5 3 2 15 US
22 4
5 4 China
6
2 9 54 Japan
2 0 5 40 5 3 5
2 5
11 1 7 18 India
5
18 19 52 Germany
27
33
57 France
40 30
28 19 22 UK
-2 -2 7 -2 0 -6
-14 -6 -1 Italy
-5
1 Global consumer trend before -7
COVID-19 2005 2008 2016 2017 2018 2019E
4 1Year on year retail sales growth over total top 10 retail sales growth (%)
Sources: EIU, IMF; Kearney analysis
Before COVID-
19: A. B. C.
What we are
Trading Trading Individual
used to
online globally centric
5 Source: Kearney: The Consumer Goods Forum Global Summit report 2017
A. Moving E-commerce as % of total retail sales
(2014–2019)
online
30% China, South Korea, Japan,
28% 28%
and Asia lead in the online
trend
25%
55.0% 52%
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
38% But the world
globalization trend
35.0%
has been stagnant
30.0% since 2008
There has been a
25.0%
long globalization
20.0% movement since
15.0%
the 1980s
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1985
1992
1998
2005
2012
2018
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2011
1 Global consumer trend before
COVID-19
8 Source: Kearney: The Consumer Goods Forum Global Summit report 2017
The impact of Recovery scenarios
COVID-19 on
the economy is
still uncertain
V U W
V-shape: Quick recovery
or
U- or W-shape: Severe 2020
L
L-shape: 18-month
impact, 2021 recovery downturn, prolonged
global recession
Low High
social social
cohesion cohesion
Scenario 3: Scenario 2:
“For whom the bell tolls” “The sun also rises”
1.0%
0.0%
-1.1%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0% -3.5%
-4.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
D. More differentiated
consumers
COVID-19 43 43 43
+19
+20 +16
33 +15 +11
30 30
Consumers’ 27 27
acceptance of e- 22
commerce has 17
increased substantially 14 14
16
13
in the past two months 10
12
Germany
Australasia
UAE1
World
UK
Asia Pacific
US
France
South Korea
MEA2
China
Japan
Western Europe
Latin America
East Europe
Selected country
Region
During this crisis, what 1 Manufacturing/researching needed products (masks, ventilators) 15%
are characteristics of 2 Availability of goods 13%
brands that have 3 Making a difference/giving back to society 13%
distinguished 4 Safety measures 13%
themselves in a 5 Customer care 13%
positive way?
6 Quality of goods/service 11%
7 It is an essential good/service 11%
8 Deferring payments/offering free or discounted services 9%
9 Educating the public/providing accurate information 7%
10 Treating employees well/hiring extra workers 7%
11 Delivery/online presence 7%
12 Good reputation/reliable 6%
3 Global consumer trend post
COVID-19
Notes: April 2020, N=853 participants. Not shown: Characteristics with response rates under 5%, including Open for business, Affordability, Helping people stay connected/entertained, Popularity, Proximity/ease of
use, Authenticity
17 Source: Kearney Proprietary Survey
B. …though UN Sustainable Development Accelerating behaviors in different
Goals (SDG) Index (2019) countries
social
responsibility Common gap in Common gap in
responsible life on land, life
could mean consumption below water,
different focus health, and
responsible – Developed
in different consumption countries are
countries more interested
81.5 81.1 79.4 78.9 in recycling and
75.8 74.5 73.2
70.9 70.6 resource
61.1 sustainability (for
example, meat-
free)
– Developing
countries will
focus more on
wild animal
Italy
Germany
India
China
UK
France
Russia
US
Japan
Brazil
protection and
environmental
protections
SDG
index 4 6 13 15 30 35 39 55 57 115
rank
3 Global consumer trend post Retail 6 5 8 3 10 1 2 7 9 4
COVID-19 sales
rank
18 Sources: United Nations SDG index 2019; Kearney analysis
C. Health and Will you seek out products that are healthier?
wellness 2.0: % Strongly agree + Somewhat agree
consumers will
look for 91% 91%
86% 85% 85%
healthier 83%
80% 79%
76% 75%
products 72% 70% 70% 70%
65%
Italy
Germany
India
Worldwide
Canada
UK
France
Spain
Russia
Australia
US
Switzerland
Brazil
Japan
Mexico
+582% +45%
+29%
Liquid Personal
Hand
antiseptic wash
soap
+35%
+24% +145%
Selected countries Toilet
Thermo Wet wipes paper
Rapid growth in all meters
markets, especially in the
affected countries
10%
individual 5% 17% 1%
4% 2%
2% 37%
finances 8% 22%
15% 25% 58%
37%
2% 6% 28% 43%
5% 45%
49% 22%
33%
21%
Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Russia UK US Viet Switzerland India Brazil Mexico
nam
3 Global consumer trend post Don’t know or not stated Less concerned Primarily health Financial and health Primarily financial
COVID-19
Note: Survey conducted from March 19–21, 2020; n=10,000
24 Sources: Ipsos; Kearney analysis
F. But that does Ford insisted on one- GM provided more
not mean value size-fits-all “T” model options to respond to
brands will win
automatically
consumer needs
– Low cost but no – Multiple brands
differentiation – Different colors
– Mass production – Different models
– One color (black)
Muji example
4 Implication
2. Reshaping future
supply chain trend
and strategy
29
Global supply
chain outlook 1. 2. 3.
Global Implication Path to next
supply chain on global normal:
movement supply chain takeaway for
strategies SMEs
30
A. China has Global export data for selected countries
(2009–2018)
been the
horsepower of $ billion
17.3
Market share
18,711 18,779
most of the 19,000
18,000
18,011 17,978
18,583
15,753
17,334
17.5%
17.0%
16.3
change in the 17,000
16,110
16.2 16.5%
16.6 16.0%
global supply 16,000
15,000
15,036 15.5%
chain 14,000
14.1
15.4 15.0%
14.5%
13,000 12,226 14.7 14.0%
12,000 13.2 13.5%
11,000
12.5 13.0%
10,000 13.1 12.5%
9,000
12.0%
8,000
New global supply chain 11.5%
7,000
center: China, the United 11.0%
6,000
States, and Germany 10.5%
5,000 10.0%
4,000
9.3 9.2
9.2 8.9 8.9 9.5%
3,000 8.6 8.7
8.5 8.4 8.5 9.0%
8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3
2,000 8.1 8.5%
7.8 7.8
1,000 8.6 8.4 8.0%
0 0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1 Global supply chain movement Global export China United States Germany
31 Sources: Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, UN comtrade; Kearney analysis
A. In 2020, the Manufacturing US domestic gross Of the
topic of imports from China output of $31 billion in
registered a sharp manufactured US imports that
reshoring is decline from goods reached shifted from China
back in the $816 billion to $6271 billion to other Asian LCC
spotlight after in 2019, virtually countries, almost
the US–China $757 billion in half was absorbed
2019 unchanged vs.
trade war 2018 by Vietnam
center 50
9.1
45
10.4
40 26.7
13.3
35 26.4
30
25
20
15
10
0
Aviation, Optical and Machinery Electrical Auto and Plastics and
aerospace medical devices equipment auto parts plastic products
devices
1 Global supply chain movement China Germany Japan Korea, Rep. United States
1The export data has included the major HS codes under each category, not exhaustive
33 Sources: UN Comtrade; Kearney analysis
A. The Ease of reshoring
requirements Ease of reshoring means the geographic industry transfer, which depends upon
of matured the geographic complexity of the supply chain along with the dependency on labor
cost and skill
supply chains
and labor costs Extended, far-reaching, 2
5
Global
resource
4 Supply chain
finance
5
allocation and
integration in
logistics
Automotive example
Ineffective Conservative
communication inventory
with suppliers management
Europe -0.2%
-0.2%
The slowdown in logistics
systems will have a domino
effect throughout the supply Middle East -1.9%
chain
-0.8%
-2.2%
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
1 Global supply chain movement
Inventory management
Led by Transaction and billing
supply
chain
Finance: organization
and process
Investment
management
Cash flow and cost model
Led by Currency and interest risk
S&O management
1 Global supply chain movement
post epidemic
Browse and compare
Live product demo the quotes
Restrained cross-
border activities
Secure logistics
capacity
3 Manage cash flow
4
3 Path to next normal: takeaway
for SMEs
48 Source: Kearney
Thank you
Daniel Starta Sherri He
Chairman, Partner of Greater China Global Partner, Managing Partner of
dan.starta@Kearney.com Greater China
sherri.he@Kearney.com
Vera Wang
Consultant
vera.wang1@Kearney.com
This document is exclusively intended for selected client employees. Distribution, quotations and duplications – even in the
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