TAP GHJ CONG THirOlNS

XU THE DICH CHUYEN DAU T U

VA G 0 I Y MOT SO GIAI PHAP CHO VI^T NAM
VE TIEP NHAN DONG VON FDI MCfl
SAU DAI DICH COVID -19

• DINH THE PHUC - DINH TH! THANH HAI

T 6 M TAT:
Thdi gian qua, dong von d^u tif quoc t6' da co sd bien ddng manh, chu5i gia tri toan c^u hi
diJt gay, kh6 hoi phuc bdi tac dong nang ne cua dai dieh Covid-19, cung nhif nhiyng mau thuin,
cSng thing thiTdng mai ng^y mot gia tang giffa c5c ni/dc Idn. Do do, bai vi^t nay se di xuat m6t
s6' giSi phap cho Viet Nam ve tiep nhSn dong von FDI mdi sau dai dich Covid-19.
TH khoa: Dich chuyen d^u td, cang thang thu'dng mai, dai dich Covid-19, FDI, Vidt Nam,
giii phap.

1. Xu the' dich chuydn d^u tif
Ke tiJf nam 2018, cang thdng thUdng mai My -
Trung, xu hiTdng bao hp san xua't trong nifdc,...
khig'n dong von dau tif tr6n the gidi sut giam (tren
10% n3m 2018 va 2019), dong thdi cd sif dieh
chuyen manh giiJa cac khu vifc va quoc gia. Trong
xu the do, cac nu'dc ASEAN, trong do ed Viet Nam
dang ndi len nhif la diem d6'n tiem nang, la diem
de'n eho sif phan bo lai dong vo'n dau tif, dac biet
la xu hifdng dieh chuyS'n dong vd'n tif Trung Quo'c.
Theo Nomura Group (2019), ke tCf dau nam 2018
de'n thang 8/2019, da cd 56 doanh nghiep quo'c te'
rdi Trung Qud'c sang san xua't tai cac nifdc khac;
trong do, cd 26 doanh nghiep chon Viet Nam, 11
doanh nghiep sang Dai Loan, 11 DN sang Thai
Lan, 3 DN lifa ehpn An Do,... Theo Cong ty Tif va'n
dautif A.T. Kearney (2019), Trung Quoc da xuo'ng
hang, tif thd 3 (nam 2017) xuong thiJ 7 (nam 2019)
trong so cdc dia diemdau tif trifc dep tif nu'dc ngoai
(FDI) tot nha't the gidi (la mtfc tha'p nhat tif tnfdc
de'n nay); phan anh sif suy giam sdc hS'p din cua
Trung Quoc doi vdi cae nha dau tif, do chi phi nhan
cong tang nhanh, tac dpng cua cang thang thifdng
mai My - Trung va nam nay la dai dich Covid-19.
Ka' tif thang 8/2019 de'n nay. An D6 vk
Indonesia da day manh viec thu hut cac tSp doan
quo'c t6' dang co k6' hoach dich chuyen khdi Trung
Qud'e. D6'n nay, da cd nhieu thong tin ve vi$e cdc
nha dau tif cd ke' hoach djch chuyen dau tif tdi An
Dp va cac nifdc khu vife Dong Nam A, trong dd cd
Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, qua tnnh dieh chuyen se
khdng ngay lap tdc, ma thu'dng co Id trinh khodng 2
de'n 5 nam, do cac chudi cung dug loan cau da difdc
hoan thien nen khdng th^ nhanh iidng chuyen
dieh. Ngoai ra, sif dich chuyen n: mg tinh da
dang hda thi tnfdng, chi chuyei rndt phan
chudi cung u'ng chd' khdng phai ,j (Q^^, ^
khdi Trung Qud'c. Do day van Iii un ^i.., „ ^5 quy

70 So 16-Thang 7/2020

md ra't Idn, vSn Ik mdt diim d€'n quan trpng bdi
Trung Quoc cd cd sd ha tang, logistics, cdng nghidp
phu trd tot, dpi ngu cdng nhan lanh nghe, cung nhif
he sinh thai cung u'ng cdng nghe cao, dap u'ng cae
tidu chuan eha't lu'cfng ciia My, chau Au,... va quy
md sdn xua't Idn.
Dd'i vdi Viet Nam, trong ndm 2019, von FDI
dangky tifTrung Quo'c lang 17% so vdi nam tnfdc,
eao hdn so vdi mdc tang chung la 7,2%, va la miJc
tang eao nha't trong so cdc dd'i tac dau tif Idn cua
Viet Nam (Hong Kong tang 9,1%, Singapore tang
6,4%, Han Qud'e tang 3,7%, Nhat Ban tang
2,12%). Trong 5 thdng d^u nam 2020, mot so' tap
doan da lenke'hoachdichchuyendau tif dd'n Vidt
Nam. Cu the, theo Nikkei, Google cd kd'hoach san
xuat smartphone gid re (Pixel 4a) tai Viet Nam,
trong khi Microsoft dd dinh sdn xuat notebook va
mdy tinh de ban trong quy II nam 2020, cdn Apple
se sdn xud't tai nghe khong ddy (AirPods) tai Vidt
Nam thay vi Trung Qud'e (3-4 trieu ddn vi,
tifdng difdng 30% lu'dng sdn pham AirPods).
Hang trd ehcfi dien tu" Nintendo cung da chuyen
mdt phin san xud't mdy ehdi game Switch Lite
sang Viet Nam,... (Xem Hinh)
Trddc dai dich Covid-19, vo'n FDI dau tif vao
Vidt Nam chu yd'u tap trung vao 3 ITnh vdc chinh,
dd la: cdng nghiep che'bid'n -che'tao, kinh doanh
bat ddng san va ban buon - ban le - sda chffa d
td, md td, xe mdy (chid'm 81% tong vd'n dangky
ndm 2019).
Tff khi dai dich Covid-19 xdy ra, cde nha dau
tif nffdc ngoai da vd dang dieh chuyen dau tff, chu
Hinh: FDI dang ky vao ViSt Nam, 2016-2019
HarClu6c NhStBSn Singapore
KINHTE
ye'u trong cae linh vffc: (i) cdng nghe thdng tin,
cdng nghe cao (nhff Sam- sung, Apple,...); (ii) thie't
bi dien tffva phu kien (Panasonic.,.); (iii) logistics,
thffdng mai dien tu" (Ahbaba...); (iv) hang tieu diing,
ban le (Zara, H&M)...
2. Nguydn nh3n dich chuyen dong vd'n FDI
Nguon vd'n FDI dich chuyen manh tff Trung
Qud'c va viing lanh thd sang cac nu'dc ehdu A, khu
vffc ASEAN, trong do cd Vidt Nam chu yd'u do 5
nguyen nhan chinh sau ddy.
Thd nhd't, ne tranh rui ro chid'n tranh thffdng
mai: Cdng thang thffdng mai My - Trung leo thang
khid'n cdc nha dau tff cd xu hffdng tim kie'm mdt
dia cbl dau tff san xuat (dinh hffdng xua't khau) dn
dinh hdn, it rdi ro hdn, dong thdi cd the tranh dffde
viec ap thud' cao cua My.
Thd hai, tid'p tuc da dang hda chudi san xua't
(Chid'n Iffdc "Trung Qud'e + 1"): Chie'n Iffdc "Tning
Qud'e + 1" ra ddi hdn 10 nam qua do Trung Qud'e
dang md't dan nhffng Idi the' thu hut FDI nhuf ehi phi
nhan cdng tang, cdc chinh sach khuyd'n khich ddu
tff dan bi xda bo,... Dong thdi, ede nffdc mudn gidm
sff phu thupc vao Trung Quoc; do dd mud^n tim
kie'm va dich chuyen mot phan sang dia diem dau
tff mdi, trong khi van giff va tan dung cac ed sd da
dau tff tai Trung Qud'c, cung nhff giam thieu tdc
dpng bdi nhffng cu sdc khi xay ra dfft gay I
khau/mdt xieh trong chuBi.
Thd ba, tan dung cd hoi mdi tff cde thi trffdng
tiem nang (An Dp, Indonesia, Vidt Nam,
Philippines,...): Trong sd eac nffdc hffdng ldi tff sff
dich chuydn dau tff, Viet Nam dffde ddnh gia la mot
Dan vi tinh: ty USD
• 2016 •2017 •2018 •2019
^ 15.52
DaiLoan
mi
H6r|K6ne TruneQu6c
••
My
Nguon: Cue Dau tu nUdc ngoai - Bo Ke lioach va Dau tu
So 16-Thang 7/2020 71
TAPCHJCdNGTHirifNG
diem sang ve thu hut dau tff do mdi trffdng kinh
doanh ngay cang dffde cai thien, thi dnfdng ndi dia
Idn, mffc sdng ngffdi dan ngay cang tang; ldi the'
tffdng dong vdi Trung Qudc ve van hda, ehinh tri,
ve vi tri dia ly, diem giup tie't giam td'i da chi phi
dich chuyen san xua't va vdn duy tri md'i hdn he
chat che vdi cde cd sd san xua't hidn ed tai Trung
Qud'c; sff hdi nhap qudc te sau rdng cua Viet Nam
ve kinh te, thffdng mai, dd'i ngoai, van hda, gido
due, ke'hoach dau tff,...
Thii tu, dai dich Covid-19 thiic day viec sap xe'p
lai chudi san xua't: Dich Covid-19 lam dfft gay
chudi san xud't, cung ffng toan cau, dong thdi cho
tha'y sff phu thudc Idn eua ehudi san xua't, cung ffng
toan cau vao Trung Qudc. Do do, eac tap doan da
qud'c gia mud'n dich chuyen dau tff sang eac nffdc
chau A khac nhff Indonesia, Malaysia, An Dd, Viet
Nam, Thdi Lan, Philippines,... Xu the' dich chuyen
ddng vd'n FDI da va dang dien ra tff trffdc khi ed
dai dieh Covid-19; tuy nhien, dich Covid-19 la chat
xuc tdc khid'n qua trinh dich chuye'n nay dien ra
nhanh hdn, quyd't liet hdn.
Thd ndm, ehinh phu mdt so' nffdc nhff: My,
Nhat Ban,... khuyd'n khich chuyen dich chudi
cung ffng trong thdng 4/2020. Nhat Ban da danh
2,2 ty USD trong gdi cffu trd kinh te gan 1.000 ty
USD de giiip cdc nha san xud't Nhat Ban chuyen
chudi san xua't ra khdi Trung Qud'c. Dong thdi
nffdc nay khdi dpng mdt chffdng trinh trd ca'p tri
gid 23,5 ty Yen (220 trieu USD), nham hd trd cdc
cdng ty da dang hda chudi cung ffng tai cac nffdc
ASEAN. Dd'i vdi My, ngay 14/5/2020. Tong
thd'ng My D.Trump da ky sac lenh nhdm hd trd
cac cong ty My dich chuyen san xua't ra khoi
Trung Quo'c. Cdc nhd Idp phdp cua My cung dang
soan thao dff thao luat nham lam giam sff phu
thupc eua My vao Trung Qud'e. trong dd bao gom
y tffdng thdnh lap mot quy 25 ty USD de dau tff
vdo cac cdng ty mudn cai td md'i quan he vdi
Trung Qud'c.
3. Nhffng mong mudn cua nha dSu tff nffdc
ngoai
Da so' nhd dau tff nffdc ngoai cd^ mong mud'n
mot sd' yd'u to' quan trpng sau: (I) On dinh chinh
tri. mdi trffdng phdp ly va kinh le' vT md; (2| Cd
che, chinh sdch (ve da't dai. thud', lao ddng, dieu
hanh kinh te'vTnid nhffty gia. Idi suat).... can dam
72 So 16-Thang 7/2020
bao tinh nhat quan, it thay ddi, cd th. bao dffde;
(3) Thong tin cdng khai, minh bach, de tie'p can,
dd tra cffu; (4) Thu tuc hanh chinh ddu gian, gpn
nhe, ra quye't dinh nhanh chdng; (5) Cd sd ha ting
ddng bo (khu cdng nghiep, didn, nffdc, giao thdng
van tai, thdng dn, logistics...); (5) Ngudn nhan lffc,
dac bidt la nhdn lffc cha't Iffdng cao, cdng nhan cd
tay nghe; (6) Cdng nghidp hd trd, phu trd ndi dia
phat trien.
4. Hanh d$ng thu hut sff dich chuydn vo'n cua
cac nffdc
Qua nghien cffu eac cong bd' chinh sach thu hut
FDI gan ddy cua mdt so' nffdc trong khu vffc cho
tha'y, chinh phu cdc nffdc dang chu ye'u dung 5
cdng eu nhdm thu hut sff dich chuyen vd'n, gdm: (i)
thue' (nhff Indonesia ed ke' hoach giam thud'TNDN
tff25% vemffc23%nam202I; AnDpmidnthue'
tff 4-10 nam eho cdc dff an dau tff trong 1 so' ITnh
vffc du tidn); (ii) dd't dai (Indonesia cam kd't danh
400 hecta cho cdc nha dau tff; An Dp cam ke't danh
ra quy da't rpng 461 hecia nhdm thu hut DN rdi
khoi Trung Qudc va da ehpn ra 10 nganh chu chd't
de tap trung thiie day san xua't vd chi thi dai sff
quan An Dp d eac mfdc tid'p can nhffng cdng ty
dang tim ndi dau tff,.); (iii) cam kd't giffa cac nha
lanh dao cap cao ve cai thien mdi trffdng d£u tff-
kmh doanh (nhu Indonesia); (iv) cung cap gdi hd
trp dao tao cdng nhan lanh nghe (Thdi Lan); va
(v) cd bidn phap tdng rao can nhdm ngan chan tinh
trang thau tdm trong 1 so' ITnh vffc (My, Nhat Ban,
EU, Anh, Uc,..).
5. G^i y mOt so'giai phap
Vide dich chuye'n dau tu" da vd dang didn ra.
Vidt Nam difdc danh gid la mdt trong nhffng nffdc
ha'p ddn thu hut sff dieh chuyen. Tuy nhien, de tao
ldi the vd canh tranh vdi cdc mfdc trong khu vffc
n-ong thu hiit vd'n FDI nay, Viet Nam can thife hien
8 gidi phap ngan han vd 6 giai phap trung va dai
han. Cu the nhff sau:
a. Vi ngdn han {trong ndm 2020)
(i) Tid'p tuc kiem soat tot dich bdnh, xdy dffng
kich bdn cd Idn sdng Covid-19 thff hai;
(ii) Sdm xay dffng va cong bo chinh sach thu
hut dich chuyen dong v^n dau tff; trong do. can neu
rd ITnh Vffcffutien. dia phffdng ffu tidn (gdn vdi quy
hoach tdng the, tranh canh tranh khong lanh manh
giffa cdc dia phifdng);
 KINH IE

(iii) Ra sodt toan bp cac khu cdng nghidp
(KCN): cde KCN eIn ffu tidn md rong/ xdy mdi,
cdc KCN can thu hep, thu lai; cdng bd'danh sach
cae KCN cd quy da't sach, cd sd ha t^ng
sdn sang...;
(iv) Ra soat, cap nhat, di^u chinh phu hdp phdn
cap phd duydt d^u tff, dnh gpn qui trinh, thu tuc ve
dIu tff nffdc ngoai, gan vdi day manh cai each thu
tuc hanh chinh mdt each thffe ch^t; cong bd' qui
dinh, qui trinh mdt cdch cdng khai, minh bach;
(v) Da'y nhanh tie'n do hoan thidn chie^n Iffpc,
hanh lang phap ly eho phdt trie'n kinh te so, md
hinh kinh doanh mdi gdn vdi cdng nghd sd' (ITnh
vffc ma nha dau tff nffdc ngoai rd't quan tam);
(vi) Cd chinh sdch, gdi ho trd dao tao nhan lffc
cd tay nghi (ngudn tdi trd tff ca Trung ffdng va dia
phffdng);
(vii) Khan trifdng cd bidn phdp ngdn ngffa hinh
thffe thdu tdm, dIu tff chui/nup bdng (gan vdi yeu
cau an ninh, quo'c phdng va ba't dpng san);
(viii) Tang cffdng gap gd trffc tie'p giffa Lanh
dao Chinh phu, bd ngdnh, dia phffdng vdi cac nha
dau tff Idn de' nam ro nhu cau, thdo gd vffdng mac
nhanh chdng; sdm van hanh hieu qua To cdng tdc
ddc biet.
b. vi trung vd ddi han
(i) Duy tri sff on dinh mdi trffdng vT mo, nang
cao nang Iffc chd'ng chiu cua nen kinh td' dd'i vdi
cac cu sd'c tff ben ngoai (ndng cao nang life canh
tranh cua quo'c gia va DN, phat trid'n thi trffdng
trong nffdc; tang dff trff ngoai bd'i, phdt tnen he
thdng tai chinh, kid'm scat nd xd'u,...);
(ii) Ludn dam bao tinh nha't qudn, tinh dn dinh
vd tinh phu hdp cua ede ed ehe', chinh sdch, nhd't Id
cac chinh sdch ve da't dai, thue', lao dpng, dieu
hdnh kinh te vi md (ty gia, lai sua't),.. de cac nha
dau tif dau tif nffdc ngoai ydn tdm xdy dffng ke'
hoach dau tff dai ban tai Viet Nam;
(iii) Co chien Iffdc dai han ve cai thien manh
me, thffe chat mdi tnfdng dau tif - kinh doanh, tff dd
cd Id trinh thffe hidn tffng ndm (thay vi lam tffng
nam nhff hien nay); tie'p tuc day manh cai thien
manh me, thffe cha't mdi trffdng dau tff - kinh
doanh; dam bao yeu to'cdng khai, minh bach; thu
tuc hanh chinh can dUdc tie'p tuc ddn gian hda,
thuan tien, hidu qua;
(iv) D^y manh dIu tff, ndng cfi'p ed sd ha tang
ddng bd (KCN, didn, nffdc, ha t^ng giao thdng van
tai, thdng tin, logistics, dieh vu di kem KCN,...) va
quye't tdm ndng cao chd't Iffdng ngudn nhdn life
theo ddnh gia va khuye'n nghi cua Diln dan Kinh
te' the' gidi (WEF) ndm 2019;
(v) Da'y manh tai cd ca'u nen kinh td', thu hiit
dau tu manh me hdn vdo ed 3 ITnh vffc (cdng
nghiep, ndng nghiep va dich vu); thue dd^y phdt
trid'n nhanh hdn cdng nghiep hd trd, phuc vu nha
dau tff, doanh nghiep boat dpng theo chudi trong
va ngoai nifdc;
(vi) Thffe hidn hieu qua Nghi quye't so' 58/NQ-
CP cua Chinh phu ve Chifdng trinh hanh dpng thffe
hien Nghi quyet sd 50-NQ/rW ngay 20/8/2019 cua
Bd Chinh tri ve dinh hffdng hoan thien the' che',
chinh sdch, nang cao cha't Iffdng, hidu qua hdp tac
dau tff nffdc ngoai den nam 2030 •

TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:

1. B6 Chinh tri (2019), Nghi quyet sd50/NQ-TLf ngdy 20/8/2019, ve dinh hudng hodn thien the che. chinh sdch,
ndng cao chdt Iuang, hieu qud hop lac ddu tU nUdc ngodi den ndm 2030.
2. Chinh phii (2019), Nghj quyS't so 58/NQ-CP. ngdy 20 thdng 8 nam 2019, ve Chuang tnnh hdnh dong thuc hiin
Nghj quyet 50 ciia Bd Chinh tri
3. Tdng cue Thdng ke (2019), Nien gidm thd'ng ke ndm 2016, 2017. 2018. 2019. NXB Tho'ng ke, Ha Noi.
4. Tdng cue Thd'ng kd (2019), Bdo cdo tinh hinh kinh te - xd hoi cdc thdng, giai dogn 2017-2019.
5. KPMG (2020), The Future for MNCs in China - A KPMG Study. China.
6. A.T. Kearney, AnnuallnvestmentReports. 2017. 2018. 2019.
1. Odgers Berndtson (2020), Whit paper - The Chalenge for Multinationals in China, Shanghai, China.

So 16-Thang 7/2020 73
TAP CHl CONG mifdNG

8. Worid Bank Group (2020). The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A t n Hf'-''' ""no.
9. Worid Economic Forum (2019), Global Competitive Report 2019
10 CNBC (2019) Morthanh 50 companies reportedly pull producnon out of China due to irade war.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/more-than-50-companies-reportedly-pull-productlon-out-of-ch,na-due-to-
war html
11. Caixin (2020). Indepdi: Despite Attempts to ure Them Away, Multinationals https:/Mww.calxinglobal.com/
2020-05-21/in-depth-despite-attempts-to-lure-them-away-multinalionals-arent-leavlng-chlna-10ISS71l8.htm
12. TrSn Tho Dat (2020). Ca'u tnic va dac tnmg kmh te ViSt Nam hien nay kha MOng dong vdi mot sS mldc tritdc
theft ky bijng nd tang tnr6ng, cafef.vn.
13. Cue Dau tunudc ngoai - Bo Ke' hoach vj Dau M; https://dautunuocngoai.gov.vn/chuyenmuc/n2/So-lieii-
FDI-hang-thang

Ngay nhan bai: 7/6/2020

Ngay phan bi0n danh gia va sii'a chi7a: 17/6/2020
Ngay cha'p nh$n dang bai: 27/6/2020

Thdng tin tac gid:

1. TS. DINH THE PHUC
Vi^n Dao tao va Nghien crfu BIDV
2. TS. Dinh Thj Thanh Hai
TrUoTng D^i ht?c Cong nghidp Ha NOi

THE INVESTMENT SfflFTS AND SOME SOLUTIONS

TO VIETNAM FOR RECEIVING NEW FDI INFLOWS
AFTER THE COVlD-19 PANDEMIC
• Ph.D DINH THE PHUC
BIDV Training a n d Research Institute
• Ph.D DINH THI THANH HAI
Hanoi University of Industry

ABSTRACT:
The Covid-19 pandemic has hit the global economy, countries and the international
investment flows hard. The pandemic significantly disrupts global value chains ,ind also
causes trade tensions among major economies. This paper proposes some so ms to
Vietnam for receiving new foreign direct investment inflows after the Covid-19 pa r
Keywords: Investment shift, trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic. FD' ,3^1^
solutions

74 S6'16-Thana "•