Ex Post Facto Study is a study in which the researcher systematically examines the effects of subject

characteristics (often called subject variables) but without actually manipulating them. The researcher
forms treatment groups by selecting subjects on the basis of differences that already exist. Ex post facto
means “after the fact.”

Nonequivalent Groups Design is one in which the researcher compares the effects of different treatment
conditions on preexisting groups of participants. The researcher cannot exert control over who gets each
treatment because random assignment is not possible.

CHAPTER 6 FORMULATING THE HYPOTHESIS

The hypothesis is the thesis, or main idea, of an experiment. It is a statement about a predicted
relationship between at least two variables.

An experimental hypothesis is a hypothesis that predicts the outcome of an experiment based on the
manipulation of variables. These hypotheses typically take the form of if-then statements, where the "if"
part represents the manipulated condition or treatment, and the "then" part predicts the expected
outcome. For example, "Increasing the amount of fertilizer will lead to an increase in plant growth."

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EXPERIMENTAL HYPOTHESIS

Hypotheses must be synthetic statements that are testable, falsifiable, parsimonious, and fruitful.

Synthetic Statements
Synthetic Statements are those that can be either true or false. It is a type of statement in logic and
philosophy that asserts something about the world that can be verified or falsified through observation
or empirical evidence. Each experimental hypothesis must be a synthetic statement so that there can be
some chance it is true and some chance it is false. "If plants are exposed to sunlight for longer durations,
they will grow taller."

Nonsynthetic statements should be avoided at all costs. These fall into two categories: analytic or
contradictory.

An analytic statement is one that is always true. Analytic statements are true by virtue of the definitions
of the words used within the statement and the rules of logic. "All bachelors are unmarried men."

 Vague or overly general predictions can inadvertently lead to analytic statements example, "The
weight of dieters will fluctuate".

Contradictory Statements are statements with elements that oppose each other—because contradictory
statements are always false. "Humans can both survive and not survive without oxygen."

 A hypothesis meets the definition of a synthetic statement when it can be stated in what is
known as the “If … Then” form.

Testable Statements
An experimental hypothesis must also be testable that is, the means for manipulating antecedent
conditions and measuring the resulting behavior must exist.

Falsifiable Statements
A good experimental hypothesis is falsifiable, meaning that it can be proven false through empirical
evidence. This is essential for scientific rigor because it allows researchers to reject hypotheses that are
not supported by data. "Humans possess an immaterial soul that interacts with the physical body,
influencing behavior."
Parsimonious Statements
While experimental hypotheses should be specific, they should also strive for simplicity and parsimony.
Complex hypotheses may be more difficult to test and interpret, so simplicity can enhance the clarity and
feasibility of research.

"Adults who consume caffeine will exhibit faster reaction times compared to adults who do not consume
caffeine."

"Adults who consume caffeine and have eaten a meal within the last hour, but have not engaged in
physical exercise within the last two hours, will exhibit faster reaction times compared to adults who
consume caffeine and have not eaten a meal within the last hour, regardless of whether they have
engaged in physical exercise within the last two hours."

Fruitful Statements
Ideally, a hypothesis is also fruitful; that is, it leads to new studies.

HOW DO WE GO ABOUT FORMULATING OUR HYPOTHESIS?

THE INDUCTIVE MODEL

The inductive model of formulating a hypothesis, the process of reasoning from specific cases to more
general principles, is often used in science and mathematics. By examining individual instances, we may
be able to construct an overall explanatory scheme to describe them. “Being identified as an athlete
grants individuals privileges, such as cutting to the front of the food line, that are not available to non-
athletes.”

THE DEDUCTIVE MODEL

The deductive model of formulating a hypothesis is the reverse of the inductive model. Deduction is the
process of reasoning from general principles to make predictions about specific instances.

General Principle: Individuals with high levels of anxiety tend to experience greater
difficulty focusing on tasks.

Specific Prediction (Hypothesis): John, diagnosed with an anxiety disorder, will have
trouble focusing during a cognitive task.

BUILDING ON PRIOR RESEARCH

Building on Prior Research - The most useful way of finding hypotheses is by working from research that
has already been done.

SERENDIPITY AND THE WINDFALL HYPOTHESIS

Serendipity refers to the unexpected discovery of something valuable or beneficial while searching for
something else entirely.

The windfall hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests that serendipitous discoveries are more likely to
occur when individuals actively seek out new knowledge or opportunities.