Forex & Global Market

Friday 28 June 2013

Daily Bulletin
Page 1 of 19 Twitter: @researchvaf

SUMMARY
GLOBAL MARKET & ECONOMY
• Global equity markets and bonds extended gains on Thursday, showing further signs of stabilizing from a dramatic selloff as concerns receded that
the Federal Reserve would begin to unwind its stimulus efforts earlier than expected.
• Gold, down in its last eight sessions, traded higher on Thursday as the dollar remained under pressure after U.S. economic data which indicated
there is no need for an abrupt end to Federal Reserve stimulus.
• Crude oil futures rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday, gaining over $1 a barrel, as conviction strengthened that monetary stimulus
measures from major central banks would stay in place for the time being.
• The dollar slid against the euro on Thursday after two days of gains as Federal Reserve officials minimized expectations the U.S. central bank would
start scaling back its stimulus program and said the Fed could buy bonds again if the economy weakens.

AUSTRALIA
• Business and builder groups are calling on the Senate to reject new federal government laws aimed at cracking down on employer rorting of the
temporary visa program for skilled migrant workers.
• Asylum seekers and the economy will top the agenda of Kevin Rudd's revamped Labor team ahead of the federal election.

JAPAN
• Will the real Shinzo Abe please stand up? Abe, back as Japan's premier in a rare second term, is expected to lead his ruling bloc to victory in a July
upper house election, but what he will do with the mandate is a puzzle.
• Japan's core consumer price index is expected to have stayed flat on year in May despite the government and Bank of Japan's efforts to spur
inflation, economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei forecast.
• Japanese investors' net selling of foreign bonds hit its highest level in 14 months last week as they continued to defy expectations Japan's radical
monetary policy to reflate its economy would lead to a flight of investment out of the country.

CHINA
• China's central bank is squeezing funds out of the money market, forcing banks to borrow money at historic interest rate levels, but the manoeuvre
appears to have been calculated to have limited impact on the real economy.
• Chinese stocks searched for a footing on Thursday as investors hoped the worst of the cash crunch had passed, but concerns the recent market
turmoil is ushering in a period of tougher funding conditions and weaker economic growth contained any optimism.

SWITZERLAND
• The Swiss franc inched higher against the dollar and was broadly unchanged against the euro on Thursday, consolidating last week's gains against
the single currency.

EURO ZONE
• Loans to the euro zone's private sector contracted further in May as recession saps appetite for investment and spending while banks restrain
lending as they repair their balance sheets.
• German joblessness unexpectedly dropped in June and the unemployment rate remained close to its lowest level since reunification more than two
decades ago, underscoring the strength of the domestic economy.
• Banks cautiously welcomed European Union guidelines designed to shift the burden of paying for bank bailouts away from the taxpayer, a move
which analysts warn could make it harder for some weaker banks to attract funding. The EU spent the equivalent of a third of its economic output
on saving its banks between 2008 and 2011, using taxpayer cash. It is still struggling to contain fallout from the banking crisis which in Ireland's case
almost bankrupted the country.
• Italy's five‐ and 10‐year debt costs hit three‐month highs on Thursday at an auction that drew solid demand, as investors with one eye on central
bank stimulus programmes chased higher returns.
• Morale among French consumers is at an all‐time low and they are more pessimistic than ever about their future living standards, data showed on
Thursday, adding further to the gloom as France battles with unemployment.

UNITED KINGDOM
• Britain did not suffer a double‐dip recession early last year as previously thought, but household living standards suffered their biggest drop in a
generation at the start of 2013.
• Britain's government promised on Thursday to upgrade roads and carry out what it said was the biggest rail investment in more than 100 years as
part of its strategy to get the economy growing again while also keeping a tight lid on spending.

UNITED STATES
• The U.S. government slashed its estimate for first‐quarter economic growth on Wednesday, offering a cautionary note on the recovery as the
Federal Reserve ponders curtailing its massive monetary stimulus.
• U.S. consumer spending rebounded in May and new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the economy remained on a
moderate growth path.

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. of Valbury Asia Futures and are provided solely for informational purpose.
We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may
arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

Daily Bulletin
Page 2 of 19
GLOBAL MARKET/ECONOMY
(Bond, Commodity, Currency, Stock)
Shares, bonds extend gains on easing fear of early Fed exit
* Wall St extends gains for third day
* Fed bond buying could be more aggressive than new timeline ‐ Dudley
* Prices of U.S. Treasuries rise after strong debt auction
NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Global equity markets and bonds extended
gains on Thursday, showing further signs of stabilizing from a dramatic
selloff as concerns receded that the Federal Reserve would begin to
unwind its stimulus efforts earlier than expected.
U.S. Treasuries prices rose, continuing to recover from last week's steep
decline, as a sale of 7‐year debt drew more aggressive bidding than
markets had expected.
Treasuries slumped last week after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke said the Fed could pull back on its $85‐billion‐per‐month bond
buying program soon as the economy improves. But prices havelargely
firmed this week after the selloff took yields to their highest in 22 months.
U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day, with the S&P 500 posting its best
three‐day run since January after three Fed policymakers sought to
downplay the notion that the central bank would bring an imminent end
to its accommodative monetary policy, known as quantitative easing.
A number of upbeat U.S. economic reports on the housing sector and
consumer spending further eased worries over whether the world's
biggest economy could withstand the winding down of the Fed's monetary
stimulus.
"I think the Fed is trying to delicately prepare the markets for an eventual
ending of QE3," said David Carter, chief investment officer at Lenox
Wealth Advisors in New York.
"The Fed has bent over backwards to introduce this huge program over
the past few years to get the economy going. The last thing the Fed wants
to do is pull the plug too fast and have the economy go down the drain."
On Thursday, William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York, said the Fed's asset purchases would be more aggressive than
the timeline Bernanke had outlined if U.S. economic growth and the labor
market prove weaker than expected.
Dudley stressed that slowing the pace of the Fed's bond buying would
depend not on calendar dates but on the economic outlook, which
remained unclear.
Equities have been volatile ever since Bernanke's comments last week.
The benchmark S&P 500 <.SPX> dropped as much as 4.8 percent in the
days following a June 19 statement from Fed policymakers. The
benchmark index has now risen about 2.7 percent over the past three
sessions after numerous Fed officials have sought to calm markets
bothered by expectations of tighter monetary policy.
In Treasuries trading, the benchmark 10‐year note was up 18/32, the yield
at 2.474 percent, compared with a price gain of 12/32 shortly before the
seven‐year debt sale.
The 30‐year bond rose 27/32 in price, its yield at 3.5316 percent after the
auction, in which the Treasury sold $29 billion of seven‐year notes at a
high yield of 1.932 percent, the highest yield since July 2011.
MARKETS RECOVER
European shares ended higher, with the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top
European shares rallying for a third straight day to close 0.7 percent higher
at 1,157.42.
The index, still down nearly 8 percent since late May, managed to cross
back above a major resistance level representing the index's 200‐day
moving average, sending a positive technical signal.
MSCI's world share index rose 1 percent after touching its highest in a
week.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> ended up 114.35 points, or 0.77
percent, at 15,024.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 9.94
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. of Valbury Asia Futures and are provided solely for informational purpose.
We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may
arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Forex & Global Market
Friday 28 June 2013
Twitter: @researchvaf
points, or 0.62 percent, at 1,613.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up
25.64 points, or 0.76 percent, at 3,401.86.
With the yield on benchmark 10‐year U.S. government debt appearing to
have stabilized at around 2.5 percent, euro zone bonds from Germany to
Greece were able to claw back some of the ground lost during the recent
global selloff.
Reflecting the recent rise in yields generally over the last few weeks, Italy
paid its highest rate since March at a 5 billion euro auction of 10‐ and 5‐
year debt. But healthy demand boosted its bonds to top the list of euro
zone periphery Performers.
Markets also focused on a deal hammered out by European authorities
overnight designed to shift the burden of paying for bank bailouts away
from taxpayers, although economists' opinions on the deal were mixed.
In other asset markets, Brent crude oil futures <LCOc1> rose for a fourth
straight session, up 1.1 percent to settle at $102.82 a barrel. U.S. crude
<CLc1> also rose, ending up $1.55 at $97.05 a barrel.
The dollar slid against the euro. The euro was up 0.2 percent against the
dollar at $1.3040, with the session low at $1.2999.
Gold makes modest gains as dollar rally cools
* Bullion down 26 percent for the year
* U.S. dollar falls after one‐week gains
* U.S. weekly jobs claims fall less than expected
LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Gold, down in its last eight sessions, traded
higher on Thursday as the dollar remained under pressure after U.S.
economic data which indicated there is no need for an abrupt end to
Federal Reserve stimulus.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell
slightly last week ‐ down 9,000 to 346,000 against an expected fall to
345,000 ‐ in line with the recent moderate pace of jobs growth.
"I don't think we have seen the end of the economic crisis by a long shot,
the improvement in the U.S. jobs market is only partial and that is lending
support to the gold price," Sharps Pixley Chief Executive Ross Norman said.
"But I think we could still edge lower in the short term as investors
continue to liquidate."
Gold's safe‐haven appeal has been severely dented since Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke said last week the U.S. central bank plans to start scaling
back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases in the next few months. That
would support an increase in interest rates, making gold less attractive.
Spot gold <XAU=> was up 0.6 percent to $1,232 an ounce at 1410 GMT. A
4 percent fall on Wednesday took the metal to its lowest since August
2010 at $1,221.80.
Comex gold was up $3.20 to $1,233.10 an ounce, also near three‐year
lows touched in the previous session.
"The rebound today is probably driven by a slightly weaker dollar, while
yields have also dropped a little bit as well," Credit Suisse analyst Karim
Cherif said.
The dollar fell for the first time in over a week, while the benchmark 10‐
year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 2.5 percent.
As gold pays no interest, the fall in returns from U.S. bonds and other
markets is seen as positive for the metal.
CHEAP MONEY
Gold and other commodities have benefited significantly from cheap
central bank money over the years. Any pause in U.S. economic recovery
momentum would mean a delay in the Fed's rollback of monetary easing
and be positive for bullion.
Gold is down more than 26 percent for the year and is headed for its worst
quarterly performance since at least 1968.
ABN Amro was the latest to pare its price forecasts, lowering its 2013 year‐
end gold forecast to $1,100 an ounce from $1,300 and 2014 year‐end price
to $900 from $1,000, citing liquidation in funds. Holdings of the SPDR
Gold Trust <GLD>, the world's largest exchange‐traded gold fund, stood

Forex & Global Market
Page 3 of 19
unchanged on Wednesday, after posting their second‐biggest percentage
drop in holdings this year on Tuesday ‐ down 1.7 percent or 16.23 tonnes ‐
to their lowest levels in more than four years.
Physical demand has also not picked up in top consumers India and China
as much as it did in mid‐April when prices fell the most in 30 years.
Silver which sank 5.5 percent in the previous session, was up 1.9 percent
to $18.81 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.3 percent to $1,318.74 an ounce and
palladium was up 1.9 percent to $641.47 an ounce.
Oil rises amid talk Fed will continue stimulus for now
* Brent and U.S. crude gain for 4th straight session
* Supply concerns in Russia, North Sea support Brent
* Investors eye next week's U.S. non‐farm payrolls
NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Crude oil futures rose for a fourth straight
session on Thursday, gaining over $1 a barrel, as conviction strengthened
that monetary stimulus measures from major central banks would stay in
place for the time being.
U.S. GDP data on Wednesday that slashed the estimate of first‐quarter
economic growth and comments from Federal Reserve governors assured
investors that the Fed is in no rush to scale back its massive bond‐buying
program.
"I think all the markets took a hit on the misinterpretation of Ben
Bernanke's comments last week. Since then it seems like Fed governor
after Fed governor has been walking those comments back, and that's
helping a lot of asset classes including oil," said John Kilduff, partner at
Again Capital LLC in New York.
Brent crude for August delivery <LCOc1> tested its 50‐day moving average,
rising as high as $103.34 before ending the day up $1.16 at $102.82 a
barrel. Brent is on track for its longest stretch of daily gains since mid‐May.
U.S. crude <CLc1> rose for a fourth straight session, breaking through its
14‐day moving average to end up $1.55 at $97.05 a barrel.
U.S. crude has outperformed Brent in three of the last four sessions,
narrowing Brent's premium to crude to $5.77 at Thursday's close, from as
wide as $7.40 on June 24.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi also offered the markets
reassurance, highlighting on Wednesday downside risks to euro zone
growth and saying monetary policy would stay accommodative.
Turmoil and outages in oil‐producing regions also lent support to Brent,
the international benchmark contract.
Five people were killed and nearly 100 wounded in clashes between rival
armed militias in Libya's capital on Wednesday, Health Minister Nurideen
Doghman said.
Output at Britain's Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea is expected to stay at
reduced levels of around 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) for around five
days, an industry source said on Thursday.
Traders also cited tightness in the Urals market, which was spilling over
into Brent and U.S. crude.
Large stockpiles in the United States of crude oil and gasoline suggest a
limit on how far prices can rise.
U.S. gasoline stocks surged 3.65 million barrels in the week ended June 21,
in the summer driving season, data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration showed on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a more
modest build of 900,000 barrels.
Brent is down more than 6 percent for the quarter so far, on track for a
third straight quarterly loss after falling last week on concerns about an
economic slowdown in China and comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke
that signalled the bank might ease off bond buying.
This would amount to the longest stretch of quarterly losses since late
1997 into 1998.
Brent crude oil prices are forecast to decline further this year and next,
pressured by a potential slowdown in Chinese oil demand growth and
swelling supplies, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Investors, meanwhile, turned their attention to U.S. non‐farm payrolls
data due next week to gain further clarity on the economy and prospects
for monetary policy.
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES
Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221‐25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
Daily Bulletin
Friday 28 June 2013
Twitter: @researchvaf
"This is the more definitive number for the Federal Reserve, because we
know that they are comfortable with inflation levels, but unemployment is
still not where they want it to be," said Lee Chen Hoay, investment analyst
at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
Dollar dips vs euro as Fed officials dampen 'taper' talk
* Fed speakers temper expectations on tapering bond buying
* Dollar rises vs Japanese yen, sell orders at 98.70 yen
* Euro off four‐week lows but ECB dovish bias seen checking gains
NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ The dollar slid against the euro on
Thursday after two days of gains as Federal Reserve officials minimized
expectations the U.S. central bank would start scaling back its stimulus
program and said the Fed could buy bonds again if the economy weakens.
U.S. economic data on Thursday was also not strong enough to bring
forward investor expectations for the timing of the official end to this
round of the Fed's 'quantitative easing'.
While U.S. consumer spending rebounded in May and new applications for
unemployment benefits fell last week, they were not blockbuster
numbers, which suggested that the U.S. economy remains on a moderate
growth path.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fell, partly pressured by the Fed officials'
comments. When talk about the Fed tapering its bond‐buying program
started weeks ago, the yen had benefited along with the dollar as
investors started moving away from riskier currencies and toward safe
havens.
Greg Moore, a currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said the
overall message of the latest Fed comments seemed to be that the market
had been a little aggressive in pricing in an early reduction of the U.S.
central bank's asset purchase program.
"Basically, the Fed speakers were saying that nothing has changed and the
exit from quantitative easing remains data‐dependent. And that may have
taken the steam out of the dollar a little bit," he said.
William Dudley, the influential head of the New York Fed, said on Thursday
the Fed's asset purchases could even be more aggressive than Bernanke
outlined last week if economic growth and the labor market turn out
weaker than expected.
Also on Thursday, Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell said financial
markets have over‐reacted to the U.S. central bank's statements and have
brought expectations of the first Fed interest rate hike too far forward.
That said, analysts said the dollar's uptrend remained intact. Even if the
Fed does not start reducing stimulus measures later this year, as indicated
by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, the U.S. economic recovery still
leads that of other major economies such as the euro zone, Japan and
China.
Overall, the U.S. dollar still remains the strongest net bought currency
across the board, according to data from BNY Mellon.
In late afternoon trading, the euro was up 0.2 percent against the dollar at
$1.304, with the session low at $1.2999.
BNP Paribas said it has initiated a short euro/dollar trade at $1.3035,
targeting a move to $1.2640, with stops at $1.3250.
"The changing paradigm for the Fed boosts yield support for the dollar,
while the European Central Bank remains relatively dovish. Accordingly,
the prospects for euro/dollar downside are rising," said BNP Paribas in a
research note.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of
currencies, was down 0.1 percent at 82.916, after touching a three‐week
high of 83.171.
The greenback overall has benefited from a rise in U.S. yields as more
investors factored in the probability the Fed will start to wind down its $85
billion monthly asset purchase program later this year.
The dollar gained against the yen as U.S. Treasury yields rose after data
showed pending home sales for May rose 6.7 percent, far above
economists' estimates of a 1 percent gain but not enough to alter the
overall theme for currency trading.

Forex & Global Market
Page 4 of 19
The dollar last traded up 0.6 percent at 98.30 yen, edging toward
Monday's peak of 98.70 yen. But traders said its rise could be capped on
large sell orders above 98.70 yen.
BUYING OPPORTUNITY
The broad trend for dollar strength in the coming months will hinge upon
expectations of reduced Fed stimulus, said Asmara Jamaleh, an economist
at Intesa Sanpaolo in Milan. U.S. data this week and next week could see
the dollar drop if it lags forecasts, but any falls would provide a buying
opportunity, she said.
Sterling <GBP=> fell to a trough of $1.5200 on Thursday, its lowest in more
than three weeks, after an unexpected downward revision to UK year‐on‐
year first‐quarter growth.
The pound was last down 0.3 percent at $1.5262. Analysts were also a bit
more bleak on the euro's outlook after it closed below its 200‐day moving
average at $1.3073 and European Central Bank officials said the ECB was
not ready to wind down stimulus.
The euro/dollar formed a 'death cross' with the 100‐day simple moving
average at $1.3071, now below the 200‐day SMA at $1.3072. A death
cross occurs when the shorter‐term moving average drops below a longer‐
term moving average.
With the 50‐day SMA at $1.3077, it is probable that there will be both a
second and third occurrence of a death cross in coming days when that
SMA moves below both the 100‐ and 200‐day simple moving averages.
AUSTRALIA
Business
CANBERRA, June 27 AAP ‐ Business and builder groups are calling on the
Senate to reject new federal government laws aimed at cracking down on
employer rorting of the temporary visa program for skilled migrant
workers.
Legislation for changes to the 457 visa scheme passed the lower house on
Thursday by a single vote after hours of debate, and could pass the upper
house on Friday with the support of the Australian Greens.
If passed, employers have to conduct labour market testing and prove
they searched for Australian workers before hiring temporary workers
from overseas on 457 visas.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry says Labor is
steamrolling the bill through the parliament, despite new Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd saying he wants a better relationship with business.
"It is disappointing that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, only hours after
committing to rebuilding relations between government and business, has
shown that the union agenda can still dominate the policy agenda of a
Labor government," ACCI employment director Jenny Lambert said.
She argues the changes to make employers do labour market testing and
show they had advertised locally before hiring foreign workers punished
industry for the errors of a few.
Master Builders Australia is disappointed by what it believes is an
"unwarranted attack" on workers and employers using 457 visas.
"The building and construction industry is looking to Prime Minister Rudd
to stop the counterproductive, anti‐business legislation introduced over
the past three years, not add to it," chief executive Wilhelm Harnisch said.
"Prime Minister Rudd is not off to a good start on the commitment he
made last night to re‐engage with business."
But the union representing construction workers says passing the
legislation will stop abuses of the system and the requirement that
businesses advertise jobs was simple.
"This 457 bill will help many Australians who are missing out on jobs due
to the unscrupulous abuse of 457 visas by employers, many cases of which
have been documented by the CFMEU," national assistant secretary Dave
Noonan said.
However, the CFMEU also thinks the measures don't go far enough and Mr
Noonan said the union will keep campaigning for further changes.
In the lower house, the opposition fought the legislation all the way.
In the end it squeaked through by a single vote, 73‐72, with the support of
crossbench MPs Tony Windsor, Craig Thomson, Bob Katter and Andrew
Wilkie.
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES
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Daily Bulletin
Friday 28 June 2013
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The government says there's widespread rorting at the expense of
Australian jobs.
But the opposition maintains there's no proof and the bill is an attempt by
Labor to appease the unions and demonise foreign workers.
Economy, boats are Rudd policy challenges
CANBERRA, June 27 AAP ‐ Asylum seekers and the economy will top the
agenda of Kevin Rudd's revamped Labor team ahead of the federal
election.
Rudd's new cabinet is expected to be announced on Friday and its first
meeting will be held next week.
The Rudd frontbench has a lot of policy challenges ahead of it but not a lot
of time for governing, if rumours of an August 24 election are correct.
The prime minister's first priority is to get a briefing from Treasury officials
over the weekend on the state of the budget and the Australian economy.
Rudd has already raised concerns China's demand for Australia's resource
commodities is waning and he will set out a plan to diversify the economy,
help small business, invest in new infrastructure and bolster
manufacturing.
The way in which he handles economic decision‐making is likely to be
overhauled, after his previous regime from 2007 to 2010 was criticised for
dictating policy
through a so‐called "kitchen cabinet" of Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan and
then finance minister Lindsay Tanner.
Incoming Treasurer Chris Bowen has already been in talks with peak
business groups.
Rudd told parliament on Thursday he would also seek the advice of
national security agencies on how to deal with people‐smuggling ‐ a major
policy failure of the Gillard government and a critical election issue.
A critic of Gillard's regional processing plan, Rudd will likely to apply more
police and intelligence resources to deal with people smugglers and the
corrupt officials who help them.
A possible visit to Indonesia next week for talks with President Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono could provide an opportunity to kickstart a new
policy.
However, he will also have to address the processing of 9000‐plus people
in immigration detention.
In a bid to deal with the opposition's carbon tax attack, Rudd is widely
expected to move forward the end of the fixed carbon price period by a
year to 2014 ‐ easing pressure on business, but lowering the money
reaped by the scheme.
He is unencumbered by Gillard's "no carbon tax" promise at the 2010
election, but will still feel coalition pressure over its impact on the cost of
living and business.
While Rudd has spoken in favour of gay marriage, it is not likely to be
policy but rather remain a conscience position within Labor.
JAPAN
Big poll win for Japan PM Abe's party could defeat bold econ reform
* PM Abe expected to lead ruling bloc headed by LDP to victory
* Big election win could strengthen vested interests
* Constitution revision push could sap drive for econ reforms
TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Will the real Shinzo Abe please stand up? Abe,
back as Japan's premier in a rare second term, is expected to lead his
ruling bloc to victory in a July upper house election, but what he will do
with the mandate is a puzzle.
Pessimists fear too decisive a win will weaken commitment to reforms
needed to end the stagnation that has long plagued the economy.
The risks are twofold.
First, a massive victory by Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could
generate complacency even as swollen ranks of conservative lawmakers
strengthen the hand of the vested interests that have long been the LDP's
core constituencies.
Second, Abe may use his mandate to push a conservative agenda centred
on revising the pacifist constitution ‐ recognising Japan's right to maintain

Forex & Global Market
Page 5 of 19
a military ‐ and recasting its wartime history with a less apologetic tone,
distracting from difficult economic reforms.
"If they win, the government will be very stable, but stability creates
laxness," said former Economics Minister Hiroko Ota, a member of an
advisory panel on deregulation ‐ touted by Abe as a key component of his
"Third Arrow" growth strategy.
The first two "arrows" in the "Abenomics" policy prescription were hyper‐
easy monetary policy and fiscal spending, neither of which faced much
political opposition.
"The issues that remain face strong opposition and that is why they were
not possible so far," Ota told Reuters. "That is why we need to remain
intensely on guard."
Pledging to revive growth in the world's third‐biggest economy, bolster its
defence posture and alter the constitution, Abe took office after the LDP's
general election win last December. That was just over five years after he
abruptly resigned from the country's top job due to ill health and a
humiliating loss in an election for parliament's upper chamber.
But the LDP and its junior partner, the New Komeito, still lack a majority in
the upper house, which can block legislation. Abe and his allies need a win
there both to end the "twisted parliament" that has foiled policy
implementation since 2007 and to wipe away the bitter memory of his
earlier defeat.
THIRD ARROW DOUBTS
Buoyed by a stellar win in Sunday's Tokyo local election, the LDP and New
Komeito look on track for a solid majority in the upper house contest.
Some political sources say Abe's party may win a majority on its own.
Pessimists fear that too big a win for the LDP would bolster the opposition
to regulatory reforms from lawmakers with close ties to industries and
sectors that would suffer from change.
"Winning the upper house election is not the key to pushing through the
structural reforms that Japan needs because the vested interests are only
going to get stronger," said Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian studies at
Temple University's Japan campus.
Others, such as LDP lawmaker Kozo Yamamoto, said a big win would give
Abe the clout to push unpopular economic reforms such as steps to make
it easier to fire unproductive employees and downsize away from
unprofitable sectors.
"We can't do it now, but if the LDP and New Komeito win a majority, we
can do it," Yamamoto said.
The party and Abe's advisers are divided between those who favour old‐
fashioned industrial policies with the government targeting winners, and
a pro‐deregulation camp that wants the government to get out of the way
to spur innovation.
Financial markets disappointed by the "Third Arrow" measures want to
see signs the latter group is gaining the upper hand. "What markets will be
looking for is a very clear commitment to specific medium‐term, growth
boosting structural reforms," said Alastair Newton, senior political analyst
at Nomura Securities.
"There has to be more substantive delivery in the reform agenda once the
election is out of the way to sustain the more positive sentiment about
Japan."
REFORM AGENDA ‐ BUT WHICH REFORM?
Abe aides say he has learned a harsh lesson from his troubled 2006‐2007
term, when his focus on revising the U.S.‐drafted constitution, promoting
traditional values and fostering patriotism in education instead of pocket‐
book policies close to voters' hearts was a key reason for his early exit.
Few believe, however, that the priorities of the 58‐year‐old grandson of a
prime minister have fundamentally altered. Some still fear he will be
tempted to spend political capital on contentious policies such as lowering
the legislative hurdle to constitutional revision as a prelude to revising
Article 9 to loosen limits on the military.
Observers also wonder whether Abe will visit Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine on
the August anniversary of Japan's World War Two defeat, a pilgrimage he
avoided as premier the first time. A visit to the shrine, where Japanese
wartime leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal are
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honoured with war dead, would inflame tensions with China and South
Korea, which suffered under Japan's past militarism.
"Structural reform would be easier to promote (if the ruling bloc wins big)
but the question is, what is his agenda?" Junji Annen, a Chuo University
Law School professor who sits on the same deregulation panel as Ota, told
Reuters. "Is it economic revitalisation or constitutional reform? Only Abe
knows."
Japan CPI Seen Flat On Year In May
Japan's core consumer price index is expected to have stayed flat on year
in May despite the government and Bank of Japan's efforts to spur
inflation, economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei
forecast.
"In May, gasoline and air‐conditioner prices seemed to have decreased,
but utility fees and prices of televisions and mobile phones are likely to
have increased, pushing up the core CPI," say RBS Securities strategists.
Yet economists say an increase on year may not be far off. Core prices in
Tokyo, an early indicator of national price trends, are expected to have
risen 0.2% on year in June for the second straight month. The data are
due at 2330 GMT from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Japan investors' selling of foreign bonds hits 14‐month high
TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Japanese investors' net selling of foreign bonds
hit its highest level in 14 months last week as they continued to defy
expectations Japan's radical monetary policy to reflate its economy would
lead to a flight of investment out of the country.
They sold 1.1875 trillion yen ($12 billion) worth of foreign bonds in the
week through June 22, the largest since the first week of April last year
and a sixth straight week of net selling.
Ministry of Finance data showed Japanese investors repatriated a net
1.1204 trillion yen last week after they bought 13.9 billion yen of foreign
equities and 53.1 billion yen of money market instruments.
Since the beginning of 2013, Japanese investors have repatriated 14.62
trillion yen, compared with an outflow of 5.36 trillion yen the same period
last year.
Foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese equities last week, with a
net inflow of 171.2 billion yen after they sold 3.1 billion yen of stocks in
the previous week.
CHINA
China credit squeeze hits banks, spares real economy, for now
* Loans from major banks flowing normally‐sources
* Lending quotas restrict banks more than credit crunch
* Much interbank activity disconnected from real economy
* But flow of credit likely to shrink in medium term
SHANGHAI, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ China's central bank is squeezing funds out
of the money market, forcing banks to borrow money at historic interest
rate levels, but the manoeuvre appears to have been calculated to have
limited impact on the real economy.
Economists warn that a broader crackdown on so‐called shadow banking,
and the central bank's commitment to preventing a debt blowout, will
raise borrowing costs and reduce the flow of credit to the already slowing
Chinese economy in the medium‐term.
But bankers say the credit squeeze is not seriously impeding corporate
lending for now because their ability to lend to companies is determined
by the amount of deposits they hold rather than short‐term lending rates
in the wholesale market.
Reports have circulated in China's domestic media this week that major
domestic banks had temporarily suspended lending operations amid a
spike in the interest rates that banks charge each other for short‐term
cash.
While some banks confirmed a lending halt in recent days, they said it was
due to adjustments following a sharp rise in new lending over the past few
weeks.
"I don't see any direct linkage with the interbank cash crunch. At the end
of each quarter, it's natural for banks to compete for deposits and the

Forex & Global Market
Page 6 of 19
diversion of deposits would force some banks to stop lending," said a loan
officer at a Shanghai branch of Bank of China.
"Lending would often be resumed at the start of July," added the officer,
who declined to be identified because he is not allowed to speak to the
media.
This disconnect between interbank borrowing conditions and the flow of
loans to main street businesses could be why authorities are allowing the
liquidity squeeze to rage.
In a dramatic statement released on Tuesday night, in which the People's
Bank of China disclosed that it had provided extraordinary support to
individual banks that were short of cash, the central bank began by
observing that "the functioning of China's economy and financial system is
generally stable".
In the first half of this month China's "Big 4" state‐owned lenders had
issued more loans than for all of May according to local media reports,
likely maxing out their unofficial monthly lending quotas.
China Construction Bank President Zhang Jianguo said on Thursday the
bank had not stopped issuing new loans despite tightening in credit.
Total social financing, a broad measure of fundraising in the economy that
includes bank loans, bond issuance and some forms of off‐balance‐sheet
financing, missed expectations in May but was still up 52 percent year‐on‐
year in the first five months of 2013.
China markets steady, but mood still fragile
* Cash rates fall for 5th day, financial stocks inch up
* Fears of crisis subside, but conditions to stay tight
* Media reports of some bank branches suspending lending
* Higher funding costs seen ahead, spilling over to growth
* China's 2nd biggest banks says still making loans
SHANGHAI, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Chinese stocks searched for a footing on
Thursday as investors hoped the worst of the cash crunch had passed, but
concerns the recent market turmoil is ushering in a period of tougher
funding conditions and weaker economic growth contained any optimism.
Chinese authorities are alarmed that even as the world's second‐largest
economy shifts down from double‐digit growth of the past decades, debt
keeps rising and much of it contributes to a build‐up of risks and financial
imbalances with little benefit for productivity and economic growth.
As such, analysts think Beijing is even prepared to risk missing its growth
target of 7.5 percent ‐‐ a two‐decade low ‐‐ to drive home the message
that banks can no longer rely on cheap cash to fund riskier operations.
"The worst of the liquidity squeeze, especially the confusion and panic
among many market participants, is perhaps over," UBS economists said in
a report.
"However, an improvement in market sentiment and drop in interbank
rates do not mean a reversal of macro and monetary policies. Over the
coming months, we expect credit growth to slow and financing costs in the
economy to rise."
Last week, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) allowed money market
conditions to tighten and rates to soar, sparking fears of a credit crunch
that roiled local and international markets. It later moved to quell fears
the squeeze could spin out of control into a full‐blown financial crisis, but
made it clear that cash conditions were being tightened and lenders
should improve money management and lending practices.
On Thursday, the central bank opted not to drain cash from. the money
market, helping rates dip for a fifth day, while mainland shares, including
battered financial stocks, opened higher for the first time this week.
Still, cash rates held well above long‐term averages.
The weighted average for the benchmark seven‐day repo rate
dropped more than half a percentage point to 6.74 percent, while the
overnight rate > was inched down slightly to 5.53 percent.
The average seven‐day rate, which used to hover in a 3‐4 percent range,
shot to a record 11.62 percent a week ago, though some trades were seen
as high as 28 percent.
The gradual improvement in cash conditions initially boosted the stock
market, but it could not be sustained. The index of the largest Shanghai
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and Shenzhen stocks ended down 0.4 percent, taking losses to about 9
percent over the past week.
However, financial stocks on the Shanghai bourse closed up 0.5 percent.
"We expect interbank rates will come down, but not to the same level as
seen before the stress episode," Haibin Zhu, JP Morgan China Chief
Economist, wrote in a note.
"The higher funding cost for banks could be ultimately passed through to
borrowers. If lending rates are higher, it will put downward pressure on
the already weak corporate sector and economic activity."
Several Chinese media outlets reported some branches of leading banks
were either suspending lending to businesses and individuals or tightening
and extending credit procedures.
It was not immediately clear, though, to what extent banks were already
feeling the funding pinch and how much was a typical slowdown by banks
that had already reached their end‐of‐quarter lending ceilings. Responding
to the reports, the nation's second‐largest lender said it has not stopped
offering new loans or lending to other banks.
"Currently, the short‐term panic of the credit crunch has eased," China
Construction Bank Corp President Zhang Jianguo said at the opening of the
bank's first Taiwan branch in Taipei.
"CCB is operating smoothly. We are still capable of giving funds to other
banks via interbank (loans)," he added. "We are not stopping giving out
any new loans."
SWISS
Swiss franc consolidates gains against euro
* Focus on euro zone confidence indicators‐strategist
* Franc tracked euro lower against dollar on Wednesday
* SNB still committed to franc cap
ZURICH, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ The Swiss franc inched higher against the
dollar and was broadly unchanged against the euro on Thursday,
consolidating last week's gains against the single currency.
The euro fell to a three‐week low against the dollar on Wednesday after
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted risks to euro
zone growth and said monetary policy will stay accommodative.
The franc, which the Swiss National Bank capped at 1.20 per euro in
September 2011 to fend off deflation and recession, declined to a three‐
week low against the dollar accordingly.
"The situation is stabilising now after relatively big moves last week and at
the beginning of this week. But the franc could rise a bit more before
weakening over the next six to 12 months," Sarasin chief strategist Philipp
Bertschy said.
He said confidence indicators from the euro zone could have an impact on
Thursday but, overall, it was surprising to see that risk aversion had less of
an influence on the franc at the moment.
SNB board member Fritz Zurbruegg said earlier this week that the franc
cap remained a key instrument of the central bank's monetary policy.
Without it, uncertainty could send the franc much higher against the euro.
Bertschy said Switzerland's leading indicator, the KOF barometer, which is
due on Friday, was not a market driver.
"The news flow from Europe and the U.S. is more important. European
data has improved a bit of late but we don't think that will be enough to
keep the European Central Bank from taking further measures," he said.
The franc rose 0.1 percent against the dollar to trade at 0.942 by 0632
GMT compared to the New York close.
The franc was flat against the euro, trading at 1.2274 per euro.
EURO ZONE
Euro zone loan contraction turns up heat on ECB
* Loan contraction accelerates in May
* M3 money supply growth slows
* Weak data reinforce pressure on ECB to act
FRANKFURT, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Loans to the euro zone's private sector
contracted further in May as recession saps appetite for investment and
spending while banks restrain lending as they repair their balance sheets.

Forex & Global Market
Page 7 of 19
Loans to the private sector fell 1.1 percent from the same month a year
ago, data released by the ECB on Thursday showed, a slightly bigger fall
than the mid‐range forecast for a drop of 0.9 percent in a Reuters poll of
economists.
The latest ECB data highlights one of the euro zone's main obstacles to
returning to growth as European leaders gather in Brussels for a summit at
which they will also discuss possible options to revive lending to smaller
companies.
"The further marked fall in lending to euro zone businesses in May
maintains pressure on the ECB to come up with concrete measures aimed
at improving credit availability to companies, especially small and
medium‐sized ones," said Howard Archer at Global Insight.
"This is clearly a major focus for the ECB at the moment, as it looks to
expand its policy toolbox to try and help overcome different financing
conditions across the euro zone," he added.
ECB policymakers have been at pains this week to stress that they are still
a long way from exiting their accommodative policy stance. The ECB holds
a monetary policy meeting next Thursday, though it is expected to hold
interest rates for the foreseeable future.
ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen will attend the European
summit and said in the run‐up to the event that the issue of restricted
access to financing and bank loans in a number of euro zone countries
would be one of the key topics.
The ECB has teamed up with the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the
EU Commission to find ways to boost lending to smaller companies ‐ a key
growth driver ‐ particularly in the bloc's periphery countries.
Asmussen was hopeful to see progress on this front within the next few
days at the summit, he said, and the ECB would assist the European
institutions within its mandate.
Banks granted non‐financial firms 18 billion euros less in loans in May than
in the previous month, data adjusted for sales and securitisations showed,
after a fall of the same amount in April.
Euro zone M3 money supply, a more general measure of cash in the
economy, grew at an annual pace of 2.9 percent in May, slowing from 3.2
percent in April and in line with the consensus of analysts polled by
Reuters.
German jobless falls underscoring strong domestic economy
* Number of Germans out of work unexpectedly drops
* Data contrasts with bleak European labour market
* Strong labour market underpins consumption
BERLIN, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ German joblessness unexpectedly dropped in
June and the unemployment rate remained close to its lowest level since
reunification more than two decades ago, underscoring the strength of the
domestic economy.
While European peers struggle with spiralling unemployment, Germany's
labour market is robust, propping up consumer morale which rose to its
highest level in almost six years heading into July.
The government is relying on domestic demand to prop up growth this
year as foreign trade, the traditional growth driver in Europe's largest
economy, suffers from the euro zone's debt crisis and a slowdown in
China.
"With yesterday's strong consumer confidence and today's good labour
market report, domestic demand should continue being an important
growth driver this year," said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.
"The German labour market remains the showcase example for successful
labour market reforms," he said, referring to reforms carried out by
former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in the 2000s that overhauled
unemployment insurance, providing an incentive to work and making the
labour market more flexible.
The number of people out of work fell by some 12,000 to 2.943 million in
June, Labour Office data showed on Thursday, compared with the
consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of 29 economists for a rise of 8,000.
The jobless rate stayed close to a post‐reunification low at 6.8 percent.
Data for May was revised upwards, to show a rise in unemployment of just
17,000 versus an originally reported 21,000. The jobless rate was revised
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downwards to 6.8 percent from 6.9 percent. Brzeski said the high number
of public holidays and the cold weather in May had blurred the data.
The positive jobless figures strike a dramatic contrast to the situation in
the broader 17‐nation euro zone, where about 19.2 million people are
now out of work, a top priority for EU leaders who meet on Thursday and
Friday in Brussels, but with little concrete relief to offer.
Even in the bloc's number two economy, France, analysts polled by
Reuters see unemployment at 11.5 percent in the last quarter of 2013.
Low unemployment in Germany has helped workers secure hefty wage
hikes of up to 6.6 percent this year. That, combined with moderate
inflation, has boosted shoppers' purchasing power at a time when the
paltry interest rates being offered by banks give no incentive to save.
Germany's unemployment figures add to data suggesting the economy is
regaining traction, after contracting at the end of 2012 and only narrowing
avoiding a recession by growing 0.1 percent in the first three months of
this year.
Business and investor sentiment is improving, foreign trade and output are
increasing and the private sector is expanding slightly, though industrial
orders have slumped.
The economy has not become a major election issue ahead of a national
vote on Sept. 22 and is unlikely to if it remains as robust as the jobless
figures suggest, boding well for German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she
seeks a third term in office.
Banks cautiously welcome EU plan to make investors pay for Corrects to
remove superfluous text in headline
FRANKFURT, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Banks cautiously welcomed European
Union guidelines designed to shift the burden of paying for bank bailouts
away from the taxpayer, a move which analysts warn could make it harder
for some weaker banks to attract funding. The EU spent the equivalent of
a third of its economic output on saving its banks between 2008 and 2011,
using taxpayer cash. It is still struggling to contain fallout from the banking
crisis which in Ireland's case almost bankrupted the country.
The deal allows EU countries to impose losses on shareholders,
bondholders and depositors with more than 100,000 euros ($132,000) if a
bank runs into trouble, and is a crucial part of Europe's attempts to make
banking regulations conform within the 27‐member bloc.
Victor Verbeck, head of investment grade credit at Robeco Asset
Management, said any move to shift the burden of bailouts away from the
taxpayer will make investors wary of investing in banks with weaker
finances.
"Banks are better capitalised than ever which means the risk of default is
dropping like a stone for the strongest credits in Europe, but this is not the
case for all. Second and third‐tier banks in the core and periphery may
struggle to convince investors," he said.
After seven hours of late‐night talks, finance ministers emerged with a
blueprint on bailouts that paves the way for deeper integration of
supervision and rescue measures.
Antonio Patuelli, president of Italian banking association ABI said,
"Following the agreement reached last night, the European banking union
is certainly closer. This was one of the most complex elements that
needed to be agreed. What has been agreed is a balanced solution."
Germany's banking association BdB said reaching an agreement was
important for standardising who pays for liabilities when international
banks fail. "Negotiations should now be finalised so that a cross‐border
resolution and wind‐down regime can be
introduced on a pan‐European basis," BdB said in a statement.
Daiwa Capital Markets said weaker banks will not face immediate
problems since investors and wealthy savers will only be forced to share
the costs of future bank failures on an EU‐wide basis from 2018 onwards.
"These rules are about resolving future banking crises ‐ not the current
one," Daiwa said in a research note on Thursday.
Delaying the rules gives lenders time to strengthen capital and balance
sheets, helping to reassure senior bank bondholders who might otherwise
sell their bonds fast and create another crisis, said Neil Williamson, head
of Europe, Middle East and Africa credit research at Aberdeen Asset
Management.

Forex & Global Market
Page 8 of 19
"Most banks will have enough subordinated debt and equity by 2018 to
leave senior pretty much unscathed," he said.
French consumer confidence at all‐time low, outlook bleak
PARIS, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Morale among French consumers is at an all‐
time low and they are more pessimistic than ever about their future living
standards, data showed on Thursday, adding further to the gloom as
France battles with unemployment.
The figures showed the euro zone's second‐largest economy, hit by lagging
trade competitiveness and a caught in a shallow recession, will not be able
to count on its traditional driver ‐ consumer spending ‐ to rebound.
The sickly growth will leave France's 2013 public deficit near 4 percent of
economic output, overshooting an already revised target of 3.7 percent
and further away from an EU goal of 3 percent, the state auditor said in a
report on Thursday.
Consumer confidence, which came in three points below analyst
expectations of 81 and far below a long term average of 100, was the
lowest since records began in 1972, data standard of living would evolve
also came in at the lowest in over four decades, while more people
consider this is the right time to save and less and less plan important
purchases.
The consumer confidence indicator has been worsening in parallel with
jobless numbers, which edged up to a new all‐time high of 3,264,500 in
mainland France, labour ministry data showed on Wednesday.
INSEE forecast last week that the economy would contract by 0.1 percent
this year as subdued consumer demand weighs.
It said growth would be too weak for the economy to start creating new
jobs and forecast that the unemployment rate would hit 11.1 percent by
year‐end, just shy of a 1997 record of 11.2 percent.
Italy’s long term debt auction costs hit three‐month high
MILAN, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Italy's five‐ and 10‐year debt costs hit three‐
month highs on Thursday at an auction that drew solid demand, as
investors with one eye on central bank stimulus programmes chased
higher returns.
Demand was stronger than in two other Italian debt sales this week, and
the 4.55 percent the treasury paid to sell the 10‐year paper was slightly
lower than market yields.
It was also below the peak of 4.90 percent hit since the U.S. Federal
Reserve prompted a global selloff of riskier assets last week with a clear
signal that it planned to scale back its bond‐buying programme.
Appetite for risk got a boost on Wednesday when European Central Bank
policymakers said monetary tightening remained a distant prospect for the
euro zone.
Strenuous efforts by central bankers over the last few days to reassure
markets that they are in no hurry to tighten monetary policy has paid off
sentiment‐wise," said Nicholas Spiro, managing director at Spiro Sovereign
Strategy.
In addition, a sharp downward revision to U.S. first quarter growth data
doused expectations of a quick reversal of the Fed's ultra‐loose monetary
policy.
Investors bought 2.5 billion euros ($3.25 billion) of the longer‐dated
bonds, with yields rising from 4.14 percent at last month's auction.
Demand rose to 1.46 times the offer from 1.38.
Rome also sold 2.5 billion euros of five‐year bonds, with a yield of 3.47
percent, up from 3 percent with demand slipping.
The 10‐year bond attracted buyers who believe the yield spread between
Italian BTP government bonds and German Bunds may have risen too
much in recent weeks, analysts said.
"Spreads versus Bunds and other EMU debt looked attractive and demand
was well supported by those dealers who bet on some re‐alignment in
spreads," said Annalisa Piazza, market economist at Newedge.
Rome has managed to sell the maximum amount planned of 17.5 billion
euros of debt this week. With Thursday's auction, it has shifted 63 percent
of its medium and long‐term target for 2013 at sharply lower rates than
one year ago, before the European Central Bank made a pledge to shield
the bonds of vulnerable euro zone countries.
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The recent dip in yields reflected in Thursday's auction result showed little
correlation with economic conditions.
Industry body Confindustria said the economy would contract more than
expected this year and debt and joblessness rates would continue to rise.
UNITED KINGDOM
Britain’s double dip recession revised away, but picture still
* Major revision of data shows UK did not enter technical recession in
early 2012
* Other revisions show economic performance worse than thought
* Revisions may impact Bank of England view on more asset‐buying
LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Britain did not suffer a double‐dip recession
early last year as previously thought, but household living standards
suffered their biggest drop in a generation at the start of 2013.
The Office for National Statistics said on Thursday that following a major
annual revision of historic economic data, figures now showed that output
flat‐lined in the first three months of 2012 rather than contracting.
This meant Britain did not suffer the two consecutive quarters of
contraction which commonly define a recession ‐ fillip for finance minister
George Osborne, whose spending cuts since 2010 are blamed by political
opponents for causing unnecessarily slow economic growth.
However, other figures from the ONS were almost unremittingly grim.
Britons' real disposable income fell by 1.7 percent in the first three months
of 2013, the biggest quarterly drop since 1987, driven down by an outright
fall in wages and rising prices, causing households to reduce their savings
to the lowest share of income since early 2009.
Britain's current account deficit with the rest of the world unexpectedly
widened to 3.6 percent of gross domestic product and business
investment slumped by 16.5 percent on the year, casting doubt on
government hopes for an economic recovery driven by exports and capital
spending.
"Overall it does look as if UK economic history has been revised in a
negative direction," said Victoria Clarke, an economist at Investec.
"It certainly looks as if the UK is a step further away now from 'escape
velocity'. We suspect that this, coupled with some inflation projections in
August, will be enough to tilt the balance for the (Bank of England) to
sanction more QE," she said, referring to asset‐buying quantitative easing.
Further historic revisions now also show that the recession between the
second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009 inclusive was
deeper than thought, leading to a 7.2 percent fall in output, compared
with previous estimates of a 6.3 percent fall.
Britain's slowest economic recovery on record since then means that
output is still 3.9 percent below its pre‐recession peak ‐ compared with an
earlier estimate of 2.6 percent below.
The one figure that was not revised was the estimate of 0.3 percent
quarterly growth in the first three months of 2013, a figure that surprised
many economists who had been fearing a 'triple‐dip' recession before it
first came out in April.
Other recent data and surveys have also pointed to a strengthening of
growth in the second quarter, with the Bank of England forecasting a 0.5
percent expansion.
However, the economy remains fragile and many economists expect the
central bank to restart its quantitative easing asset purchases of provide
other stimulus soon after former Canadian central bank chief takes Mark
Carney takes over from governor Mervyn King on July 1.
Britain plans to boost roads, rail in infrastructure plan
LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ Britain's government promised on Thursday
to upgrade roads and carry out what it said was the biggest rail investment
in more than 100 years as part of its strategy to get the economy growing
again while also keeping a tight lid on spending.
A day after finance minister George Osborne announced cuts to
government budgets worth 11.5 billion pounds ($17.64 billion) in the
2015/16 fiscal year, his deputy Danny Alexander detailed the
Conservative‐led coalition's infrastructure plans.

Forex & Global Market
Page 9 of 19
Alexander described them as "the most comprehensive, ambitious and
long‐lasting capital investment plans this country has ever known."
Alexander announced 28 billion pounds would be spent by the
government on improving roads from 2014 to 2020 and it would support
30 billion pounds in rail investments.
He also announced a multi‐billion pound guarantee designed to help build
a new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point and details of energy prices
that the government will guarantee for offshore wind power developers.
The overall plan, worth a total of 100 billion pounds, put some flesh on the
bones of 300 billion pounds in capital spending commitments set out until
2020.
The announcement did not amount to a new injection of cash as the
government battles to eliminate a large budget deficit.
The Conservative party is seeking to set out its stall for the 2015 general
election which is likely to be won or lost on how well the economy is
performing. Thursday's announcement aimed to draw in private sector
cash by instilling confidence in the government's commitment to
infrastructure.
The opposition Labour party, which has previously urged more short‐term
spending to revive the economy but has been wary about committing
itself to increased borrowing, kept up its criticism of the government for
doing too little on investment.
"When is the government going to pull its finger out and actually start to
build some of these things?" said Chris Leslie, a Labour lawmaker and a
party spokesman for economic issues.
UNITED STATES
US Q1 GDP slashed in cautionary note on economy
* GDP growth lowered to 1.8 percent pace from 2.4 percent
* Consumer spending, business investment readings both cut
* Residential construction revised up
WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) ‐ The U.S. government slashed its
estimate for first‐quarter economic growth on Wednesday, offering a
cautionary note on the recovery as the Federal Reserve ponders curtailing
its massive monetary stimulus.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the
quarter, the Commerce Department said. The economy was previously
reported to have grown at a 2.4 percent pace after a gain of just 0.4
percent in the final three months of last year.
Almost all categories were revised lower, with the exception of home
construction and government. Economists polled by Reuters had expected
GDP growth would be unrevised.
The biggest surprise was consumer spending, which grew at a 2.6 percent
pace, not the 3.4 percent rate previously estimated.
The revision to consumer spending, which accounts for more than two‐
thirds of U.S. economic activity, sliced more than a half percentage point
off the GDP growth rate.
Economists cautioned against reading too much into the data given its
backward‐looking nature, but said it could weigh on the Fed as it considers
scaling back its bond buying.
"At the margin, it tilts them a little bit less strongly towards the tapering
they were talking about a week ago," said Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS
in New York.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that the central bank could
trim the $85 billion in bonds it is buying each month sometime later this
year and likely bring the program to a close by mid‐2014.
Those comments led to a sharp selloff in stock markets and drove the yield
on the benchmark 10‐year Treasury note to a nearly two‐year high.
However, a range of strong U.S. economic data on Tuesday ‐ from business
spending plans to home prices ‐ bolstered investor sentiment.
After closing higher on Tuesday, stocks resumed their ascent on
Wednesday. Bonds were also up on the day, with yields falling.
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The GDP report showed that homebuilding grew at a 14.0 percent rate in
the first quarter, but a big jump in mortgage rates on the back of
Bernanke's remarks threatens to cool the sector.
Interest rates on fixed 30‐year mortgages jumped more than a quarter
point last week to an average 4.46 percent, the Mortgage Bankers
Association said. That killed off refinance activity, although demand for
loans to purchase a home edged higher.
U.S. consumer spending rebounds, jobless claims fall
* Consumer spending rise 0.3 percent in May
* Real consumer spending increases 0.2 percent
* Income rises 0.5 percent, saving rate up
* Weekly jobless claims fall to 346,000
WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) ‐ U.S. consumer spending rebounded in
May and new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week,
suggesting the economy remained on a moderate growth path.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday consumer spending
increased 0.3 percent last month after a revised 0.3 percent drop in April.
Consumer spending in April was previously reported to have declined 0.2
percent.
Last month's spending increase was in line with economists' expectations.
When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.2 percent last
month after dipping 0.1 percent in April.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for
unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000. The
four‐week moving average for new claims, which irons out week‐to‐week
volatility, fell 2,750 to 345,750.
U.S. stock index futures slightly added to earlier gains after the data. U.S.
Treasuries prices extended price gains and yields fell to session lows, while
the dollar pared gains against the yen.
Recent data, including housing, regional factory activity, business spending
plans and consumer confidence, have pointed to an economy that is
regaining some speed after stumbling early in the second quarter.
That is broadly supportive of the view the Federal Reserve expressed last
week that the downside risks to the economy's outlook have waned. Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could start scaling back
on the pace of its monthly bond purchases this year.
Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.
Though the pace of spending has slowed from the 2.6 percent annual rate
notched in the first three months of the year, consumers will likely
continue to drive growth in the second quarter.
The firming growth theme held as other details of the Commerce
Department report showed income grew 0.5 percent last month, the
largest gain since February, after nudging up 0.1 percent in April. That
reflects a steady pace of job gains.
Households also saved a bit more last month, lifting the saving rate to a
five‐month high of 3.2 percent.
There was also a bit of inflation in the economy last month, pointing to
some pick‐up in demand.
A price index for consumer spending inched up 0.1 percent in May after
declining two straight months. A core reading that strips out food and
energy costs also rose 0.1 percent after being flat in April.
Over the past 12 months, inflation rose 1 percent, still below the Fed's 2
percent target. The index had increased only 0.7 percent in the period
through April.
Core prices were up 1.1 percent from a year ago after rising by the same
margin in April.
Falling healthcare costs are dampening inflation pressures. Bernanke has
said the weak healthcare costs were likely to transitory.
(Source: Reuters‐Research: @Dnapalova
 Daily Bulletin
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Forex & Global Market

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DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

MON/24-Jun 15.00 IT Consumer Confidence Jun 95.7 86.3 IND 85.9 86.4
15.00 DE Ifo Business Climate Jun 105.9 105.9 IND 105.7
15.00 DE Ifo Current Condition Jun 109.4 109.6 IND 110.0
15.00 DE Ifo Expectations Jun 102.5 102 IND 101.6
16.00 IT Trade Balance Non-EU May 2.968 N/A B 1.46 1.466
19.30 US Chicago Fed NA-Index May -0.30 N/A IND -0.53 -0.52
TUE/25-Jun 13.45 FR Business Climate Jun 93 93 IND 92
15.00 IT Retail Sales SA Apr -0.1 N/A % -0.3
15.00 IT Retail Sales NSA Apr -2.9 N/A % -3.0 -3.2
15.30 HK Imports May 1.7 N/A % 7.7
15.30 HK Exports May -1.0 N/A % 9.0
17.00 GB CBI Distributive Trades Jun 1 -1 IND -11
19.30 US Durable Goods Orders May 3.6 3.0 % 3.5 3.6
19.30 US Durable Goods Ex-Transport. May 0.7 0.0 % 1.5 1.7
19.30 US Durable Goods Ex-Defense May 3.5 2.7 % 2.3 2.5
19.30 US Durable Goods Ex-Aircraft May 1.1 0.3 % 1.2
20.00 US FHFA Home Price M/M Apr 0.7 N/A % 1.3
20.00 US FHFA Home Price Y/Y Apr 7.4 N/A % 7.2
20.00 US CaseShiller House Price 20 M/M SA May 1.7 1.2 % 1.1 1.9
20.00 US CaseShiller House Price 20 M/M NSA May 2.5 1.1 % 1.4
20.00 US CaseShiller House Price 20 Y/Y May 12.1 10.6 % 10.9
21.00 US Consumer Confidence Jun 81.4 75.4 IND 76.2 74.3
21.00 US New Home Sales Units May 0.476 0.462 M 0.454 0.466.
21.00 US New Home Sales Changes May 2.1 N/A % 2.3 3.3
21.00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Jun 8 N/A IND -2
21.00 US Richmond Fed Service Jun 15 N/A IND 11
WED/26-Jun 04.00 KR BoK Manufacturing BSI Jul 76 N/A IND 78
13.00 CH UBS Indicator May 1.46 N/A IND 1.46 1.43
13.00 DE GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul 6.8 6.5 IND 6.5
13.45 FR GDP Q/Q Revision Q1 -0.2 N/A % -0.2
19.30 US Corporate Profit Revison Q1 -1.1 -1.7 % -1.9
19.30 US Real GDP Y/Y Final Q1 1.8 2.4 % 2.4
19.30 US Core PCE Index Final Q1 1.3 1.3 % 1.3
19.30 US PCE Index Final Q1 1.0 1.0 % 1.0
N/A US Building Permits Unit - Rev May 0.985 N/A M 0.974
N/A US Building Permits Change - Rev May -2.0 N/A % -3.1
THU/27-Jun 06.00 KR Current Account May 7.82 N/A B 4.80 4.76
06.50 JP Foreign Bond Investment W/E -1187 N/A B -402.5 -405.1
06.50 JP Foreign Stock Investment W/E 171.2 N/A B -3.6 -3.1
13.00 DE Import Prices M/M May -0.4 -0.2 % -1.4
13.00 DE Import Prices Y/Y May -2.9 -2.8 % -3.2
13.45 FR Consumer Confidence Jun 78 81 IND 79
14.55 DE Unemployment Change SA Jun -12 8 K 21.0 17
14.55 DE Unemployment Total NSA Jun 2.9 2.9 M 2.9
14.55 DE Unemployment Rate SA Jun 6.8 6.9 % 6.9 6.8
14.55 DE Unemployment Total SA Jun 2.943 N/A M 2.963 2.955
15.00 EZ Money-M3 Annual Growth Y/Y May 2.9 2.9 % 3.2
15.00 EZ Money- Private Loans May -1.1 -0.9 % -0.9
15.00 EZ Money-M3 Moving Average May 2.9 N/A % 3.0 2.9
15.30 GB Current Account Q1 -14.51 -11.8 B -14.04 -13.61
15.30 GB GDP Q/Q Final Q1 0.3 0.3 % 0.3
15.30 GB GDP Y/Y Final Q1 0.3 0.6 % 0.6
16.00 EZ Business Climate Jun -0.68 -0.65 IND -0.76 -0.75
16.00 EZ Economic Sentiment Jun 91.3 90.3 IND 89.4 89.5
16.00 EZ Industrial Sentiment Jun -11.2 -12.4 IND -13.0
16.00 EZ Services Sentiment Jun -9.5 -8.8 IND -9.3 -9.2
16.00 EZ Consumer Sentiment Jun -18.8 -18.8 IND -21.9
16.00 EZ Consumer Inflation Expectation Jun 16.00 N/A IND 15.4
19.30 US Real Personal Spending M/M May 0.2 N/A % 0.1 -0.1
19.30 US Personal Income M/M May 0.5 0.2 % 0.0 0.1
19.30 US Consumption, Adjusted M.M May 0.3 0.3 % -0.2 -0.3
19.30 US Jobless Claims W/E 346 345 K 354 355
19.30 US Jobless 4-week W/E 345.75 N/A K 348.25 348.50
19.30 US Continued Jobless W/E 2.965 2.950 M 2.951 2.966
19.30 US Chicago Midwest Manufacturing May 95.8 N/A IND 95.9 96.2
21.00 US Pending Home Index May 112.3 N/A IND 106.0 105.2
21.00 US Pending Home Sales Change May 6.7 1.0 % 0.3 -0.5
FRI/28-Jun 06.00 KR Industrial Output Y/Y May 0.8 % 1.7
06.00 KR Service Sector Output May N/A % 0.2
06.00 KR Industrial Output M/M May 0.9 % 0.8
06.01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Jun -21 IND -22
06.13 JP Manufacturing PMI Jun N/A IND 51.5
06.30 JP All Household Spending Y/Y May 1.4 % 1.5
06.30 JP All Household Spending M/M May 1.5 % -4.6
06.30 JP CPI Core Nationwide Y/Y May 0.0 % -0.4
06.30 JP CPI Overall Nationwide May N/A % -0.7
06.30 JP CPI Core Tokyo Y/Y Jun 0.2 % 0.1

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06.30 JP CPI Overall Tokyo Jun N/A % -0.2

06.30 JP Jobs / Applicants Ratio May 0.90 IND 0.89
06.30 JP Unemployment Rate May 4.0 % 4.1
06.50 JP Industrial Output Preliminary May 0.2 % 0.9
06.50 JP Retail Sales Y/Y May 0.0 % -0.1
08.30 AU Private Sector Credit May N/A % 0.3
08.30 AU Housing Credit May N/A % 0.4
12.00 JP Construction Orders Y/Y May N/A % 2.0
12.00 JP Housing Starts Y/Y May 6.2 % 5.8
13.00 GB Nationwide House Price M/M Jun 0.3 % 0.4
13.00 GB Nationwide House Price Y/Y Jun 2.0 % 1.1
13.00 DE Retail Sales M/M May 0.2 % -0.4
13.00 DE Retail Sales Y/Y May 0.6 % 1.8
13.45 FR Consumer Spending May -0.1 % -0.3
13.45 FR PPI M/M May -0.3 % -0.9
14.00 CH KOF Indicator Jun 1.19 IND 1.10
15.00 IT Business Confidence Jun 89.0 IND 88.5
16.00 IT CPI M/M Preliminary Jun 0.2 % 0.0
16.00 IT CPI Y/Y Preliminary Jun 1.1 % 1.1
16.00 IT HICP M/M Preliminary Jun 0.2 % 0.0
16.00 IT HICP Y/Y Preliminary Jun 1.3 % 1.3
17.00 IT PPI M/M May -0.1 % -0.4
17.00 IT PPI Y/Y May -1.2 % -1.0
19.00 DE HICP Y/Y Preliminary Jun 1.8 % 1.6
19.00 DE HICP Y/Y Preliminary Jun 0.0 % 0.3
19.00 DE CPI M/M Preliminary Jun 0.0 % 0.4
19.00 DE CPI Y/Y Preliminary Jun 1.7 % 1.5
20.45 US Chicago PMI Jun 56.0 IND 58.7
20.55 US Univ. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Jun 82.8 IND 82.7
20.55 US Univ. Michigan Current Condition Final Jun 92.8 IND 92.1
20.55 US Univ. Michigan Expectations Final Jun 77.0 IND 76.7

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

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EUR/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART
Hourly QEUR= 4:00 AM 6/19/2013 - 4:00 AM 6/28/2013 (UTC) Daily QEUR= 1/16/2013 - 7/12/2013 (UTC)

Price Cndl, QEUR=, Bid1.3711 Price

USD 6/28/2013, 1.3035, 1.3040, 1.3031, 1.3036 USD
1.335 EMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 20
6/28/2013, 1.3140
1.3520
1.36
WMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
1.33 1.3415
1.3253 6/28/2013, 1.3105 1.3433 1.35
1.325
1.3318 1.34

1.3150 1.32 1.3242 1.33

1.3201 1.3150
1.315 1.32
1.3161 1.3056 1.3056
1.3083
1.31
1.31

EMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 20 1.3

1.305
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 1.3031
WMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55 1.3058 1.29
1.2999
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 1.3030 1.3
1.28
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 1.3035, 1.3038, 1.3032, 1.3036
1.2999 1.295 1.2837
1.2983 1.2745 1.27

1.29 1.26
.1234 .1234
RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 54.238 Value 6/28/2013, 31.151 Value
USD USD
.123 123
Value Mom, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14
Value Mom, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14
USD 6/28/2013, -0.0220
USD 11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 0.0006
0
.1234 .1234
09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 04:00 12:00 20:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 21 28 04 11 18 25 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08
Jun 19 13 Jun 20 13 Jun 21 13 Jun 24 13 Jun 25 13 Jun 26 13 Jun 27 13 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 31.25 Ï Mom-14 : Î EMA 20 : 1.3151 Ð WMA 55 : 1.3106 Ð Daily Trend : Î

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 1.3015 1.3056 1.3001 55 1.3045 Ï 35 1.3010
Jun 26 1.3075 1.3087 1.2986 101 1.3010 Ð 85 1.3095
Jun 25 1.3130 1.3150 1.3066 84 1.3095 Ð 30 1.3125
Jun 24 1.3105 1.3144 1.3060 84 1.3125 Ð 15 1.3140
Jun 21 1.3230 1.3253 1.3099 154 1.3140 Ð 85 1.3225

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.3150 1.2986 1.3415 1.2956 1.3242 1.2797 1.3711 1.2748
(25/Jun) (26/Jun) (18/Jun) (03/Jun) (01/May) (17/May) (01/Feb) (02/Apr)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

1.3253 High June 21

1.3150 High June 25

RESISTANCE
1.3087 High June 26

1.3056 High June 27

1.2999 Low June 27

1.2983 Low June 26

SUPPORT
1.2954 Low June 03

1.2943 Low May 31

BUY 1.3010

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 1.2950

1.3060
TARGET
1.3090

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2
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Forex & Global Market

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USD/JPY
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART
Hourly QJPY= 3:00 PM 6/19/2013 - 2:00 AM 6/28/2013 (UTC) Daily QJPY= 1/8/2013 - 7/9/2013 (UTC)
Cndl, QJPY=, Bid 61.8% 106.4
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 98.43, 98.45, 98.35, 98.44 Price 50.0% 103.56
105.62 Price
38.2% 104.83 102.52
EMA, QJPY=, Bid, 20 98.70 /USD 23.6% 103.86 /USD
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 98.20 98.57 101.27
99
Cndl, QJPY=, Bid 0.0% 102.29
WMA, QJPY=,98.28
Bid, 55 99.94 102
98.23 6/28/2013, 98.33, 98.49, 98.33, 98.43 99.28
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 98.00 98.5 98.70
EMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 20 100
6/28/2013, 97.78
98 96.71
WMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 55 98
6/28/2013, 98.72
97.5 96
97.54
94
97
97.24 94.81 92
96.5
96.96 92.54 90
96.84 96 90.92
88

95.5 86
88.03
95 84

82
.12 .12
RSI, QJPY=, Bid, 14, Exponential RSI, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 64.502 Value 6/28/2013, 61.765 Value
/USD /USD
123 123
Mom, QJPY=, Bid, 14 Mom, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 14
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 0.30 Value 6/28/2013, -0.33 Value
/USD /USD
.12 .12
17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 20:00 04:00 12:00 20:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08
Jun 19 13 Jun 20 13 Jun 21 13 Jun 24 13 Jun 25 13 Jun 26 13 Jun 27 13 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 Jul 13

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 60.80 Ï Mom-14 : Ð EMA 20 : 97.71 Ï WMA 55 : 98.74 Ð Daily Trend : Î

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 97.65 98.57 97.57 100 98.30 Ï 50 97.80
Jun 26 98.15 98.23 97.25 98 97.80 FLAT 97.80
Jun 25 97.70 98.05 96.98 107 97.80 Ï 10 97.70
Jun 24 98.35 98.70 97.23 147 97.70 Ð 5 97.75
Jun 21 97.05 98.13 96.87 126 97.75 Ï 30 97.45

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
98.70 96.98 100.72 93.80 103.73 97.05 103.73 86.55
(24/Jun) (25/Jun) (03/Jun) (13/Jun) (22/May) (01/May) (22/May) (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

99.28 High June 10

99.04 High June 11

RESISTANCE
98.70 High June 24

98.57 High June 27

97.54 Low June 27

97.24 Low June 26

SUPPORT
96.96 Low June 25

96.84 Low June 21

BUY 98.25

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 97.55

98.90
TARGET
99.25

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

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GBP/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 25.96 Ð Mom-14 : Î EMA 20 : 1.5457 Ð WMA 55 : 1.5402 Ð Daily Trend : Ð

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 1.5315 1.5346 1.5203 143 1.5265 Ð 50 1.5315
Jun 26 1.5410 1.5440 1.5299 141 1.5315 Ð 115 1.5430
Jun 25 1.5450 1.5476 1.5398 78 1.5430 Ð 10 1.5440
Jun 24 1.5390 1.5465 1.5345 120 1.5440 Ï 10 1.5430
Jun 21 1.5510 1.5529 1.5370 159 1.5430 Ð 60 1.5490

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.5476 1.5203 1.5751 1.5194 1.5604 1.5010 1.6380 1.4832
(25/Jun) (27/Jun) (17/Jun) (03/Jun) (01/May) (29/May) (02/Jan) (12/Mar)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

1.5751 High 17/Jun/2013

1.5676 High 19/Jun/2013

RESISTANCE
1.5529 High 21/Jun/2013

1.5476 High 25/Jun/2013

1.5187 Low 03/Jun/2013

1.5138 Low 31/May/2013

SUPPORT
1.5109 Low 30/May/2013

1.5006 Low 29/May/2013

BUY ----

SELL 1.5290

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 1.5370

1.5180
TARGET
1.5120

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

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USD/CHF
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 67.64 Ï Mom-14 : Î EMA 20 : 0.9358 Ï WMA 55 : 0.9425 Î Daily Trend : Ð

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 0.9425 0.9487 0.9406 81 0.9450 Ï 15 0.9435
Jun 26 0.9390 0.9443 0.9373 70 0.9435 Ï 55 0.9380
Jun 25 0.9330 0.9407 0.9320 87 0.9380 Ï 45 0.9335
Jun 24 0.9365 0.9380 0.9313 67 0.9335 Ð 10 0.9345
Jun 21 0.9260 0.9368 0.9243 125 0.9345 Ï 70 0.9275

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.9487 0.9313 0.9624 0.9131 0.9838 0.9248 0.9838 0.9023
(27/Jun) (24/Jun) (03/Jun) (13/Jun) (22/May) (01/May) (22/May) (01/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

0.9790 High 29/May/2013

0.9651 High 30/May/2013

RESISTANCE
0.9624 Double Top Area

0.9520 High 04/Jun/2013

0.9369 Reaction low on 1-H chart

0.9309 Reaction low on 1-H chart

SUPPORT
0.9239 Low 21/Jun/2013

0.9172 Low 18/Jun/2013

BUY 0.9425

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 0.9345

0.9520
TARGET
0.9590

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

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AUD/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART
Hourly QAUD= 9:00 AM 6/19/2013 - 9:00 AM 6/28/2013 (UTC) Daily QAUD= 2/13/2013 - 7/12/2013 (UTC)

1.0582
Price Price
Cndl, QAUD=, Bid
USD USD
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 0.9283, 0.9286, 0.9277, 0.9280 1.0385
EMA, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 20 1.04
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 0.9287 0.95
WMA, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 55
1.0253 1.03
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 0.9290 1.02
0.945
1.0219
1.01

0.9344 0.94 0.9919 1

0.9337 Cndl, QAUD=, Bid
6/28/2013, 0.9274, 0.9286, 0.9267, 0.9281 0.9842 0.9792 0.99
0.9299 0.9296 0.935
EMA, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 20 0.98
6/28/2013, 0.9423
0.9673
0.97
0.93 WMA, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 55
0.9554
6/28/2013, 0.9610 0.96
0.0% 0.9543
0.925 0.95
0.9344
23.6% 0.9423 0.94
0.9259 0.92 38.2% 0.9349
0.9233 50.0% 0.9289 0.93
61.8% 0.9229
0.915 0.92
0.9195
0.9259 0.91
.1234 100.0% 0.9034 .1234
RSI, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential RSI, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential
11:00 PM 6/27/2013, 45.485 Value 6/28/2013, 36.366 Value
USD USD

.123 123
Mom, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 14
Value Mom, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 14 6/28/2013, -0.0181 Value
USD 11:00 PM 6/27/2013, -0.0025 USD
.1234 .1234
09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:0020:00 04:00 12:00 20:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 17:00 01:00 09:00 18 25 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08
Jun 19 13 Jun 20 13 Jun 21 13 Jun 24 13 Jun 25 13 Jun 26 13 Jun 27 13 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 35.00 Ð Mom-14 : Ï EMA 20 : 0.9438 Ð WMA 55 : 0.9630 Ð Daily Trend : Î

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 0.9285 0.9337 0.9263 74 0.9285 Ï 10 0.9275
Jun 26 0.9250 0.9344 0.9237 107 0.9275 Ï 20 0.9255
Jun 25 0.9275 0.9296 0.9198 98 0.9255 Ð 5 0.9260
Jun 24 0.9240 0.9299 0.9149 150 0.9260 Ï 15 0.9245
Jun 21 0.9195 0.9258 0.9183 75 0.9245 Ï 40 0.9205

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.9344 0.9149 0.9792 0.9149 1.0382 0.9529 1.0598 0.9149
(26/Jun) (24/Jun) (03/Jun) (24/Jun) (01/May) (29/May) (10/Jan) (24/Jun)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

0.9574 High June 18

0.9554 High June 19

RESISTANCE
0.9344 High June 26

0.9337 High June 27

0.9259 Low June 27

0.9233 Low June 26

SUPPORT
0.9195 Low June 25

0.9145 Low June 24

BUY ----

SELL 0.9290

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 0.9360

0.9250
TARGET
0.9215

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221‐25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
 Daily Bulletin
Friday 28 June 2013

Forex & Global Market

Page 17 of 19 Twitter: @researchvaf

EUR/JPY
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 50.20 Ï Mom-14 : Ð EMA 20 : 128.49 Ï WMA 55 : 129.39 Ï Daily Trend : Ð

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 127.10 128.38 127.07 131 128.20 Ï 100 127.20
Jun 26 128.30 128.44 126.57 187 127.20 Ð 85 128.05
Jun 25 128.25 128.65 127.31 134 128.05 Ð 15 128.20
Jun 24 128.90 129.18 127.29 189 128.20 Ð 20 128.40
Jun 21 128.30 129.68 127.80 188 128.40 Ð 45 128.85

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
129.18 126.57 131.38 124.99 133.77 127.53 133.77 113.56
(24/Jun) (26/Jun) (04/Jun) (13/Jun) (22/May) (02/May) (22/May) (09/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

132.48 Low Jan 07/2010

131.79 High May 29/2009

RESISTANCE
130.98 High Jun 03/2013

129.35 High Mar 07/2003

126.56 Low Apr 12/2010

125.54 Low Apr 15/2013

SUPPORT
124.60 Low Feb 04/2013

123.78 Low Mar 08/2013

BUY ----

SELL 128.55

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 129.00

128.20
TARGET
127.80

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221‐25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
 Daily Bulletin
Friday 28 June 2013

Forex & Global Market

Page 18 of 19 Twitter: @researchvaf

XAU/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART
Hourly QXAU= 2:00 PM 6/20/2013 - 1:00 PM 6/28/2013 (JAK) Daily QXAU= 2/5/2013 - 7/16/2013 (JAK)
1669.31
Price Price
1301.01 USD 1619.66 USD
Ozs 1603.60 Ozs
1,310
1564.36 1,600
1288.80
1,300
1,290 1,550
1487.80
1,280 1554.49 1476.36
1244.50 1,500
1,270
1417.46 1,450
1268.89 1271.31 1,260
1,250 1375.41 1,400
EMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 20
1,240 1351.06
6/28/2013, 1,316.40
1,350
EMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 20 1,230 Cndl, QXAU=, Bid
6:00 AM 6/28/2013, 1,218.43 1,220 6/28/2013, 1,199.19, 1,203.25, 1,198.79, 1,202.11 1277.79 1,300
1321.35 1338.95
Cndl, QXAU=, Bid 1221.80 1,210 WMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 55 0.0% 1,276.99 1244.50
6:00 AM 6/28/2013, 1,200.66, 1,203.25, 1,199.89, 1,201.98 6/28/2013, 1,364.60 1,250
1,200 23.6% 1,229.88
WMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 55
6:00 AM 6/28/2013, 1,228.29 1,190 38.2% 1,200.74 1,200
1197.10 1,180 50.0% 1,177.18
61.8% 1,153.62 1197.10 1,150
.12
Value RSI, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential .12
USD 6:00 AM 6/28/2013, 28.803 Value RSI, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential
Ozs MARSI, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential, 14 USD 6/28/2013, 14.407 Value
6:00 AM 6/28/2013, 32.260 USD
Ozs
Ozs
.123 .123 Value Mom, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 14
Value Mom, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 14 USD 6/28/2013, -184.29
USD 6:00 AM 6/28/2013, -35.48 Ozs
Ozs .12
16:00 00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00 06:00 15:00 00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00 08:00 16:00 00:00 08:00 11 18 25 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15
Jun 20 13 Jun 21 13 Jun 24 13 Jun 25 13 Jun 26 13 Jun 27 13 Jun 28 13 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

XAU= RSI-14 : 13.04 Ð Mom-14 : Î EMA 20 : 1328.43 Ð WMA 55 : 1371.46 Ð Daily Trend : Ð
= USD RSI-14 : 74.02 Ï Mom-14 : Ð EMA 20 : 82.17 Ï WMA 55 : 81.87 Ï Daily Trend : Ð

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS AM FIX PM FIX
Jun 27 1228.50 1244.50 1197.90 46.60 1200.00 Ð 26.00 1226.00 1232.00 1232.75
Jun 26 1274.50 1277.79 1222.55 55.24 1226.00 Ð 51.50 1277.50 1229.00 1236.25
Jun 25 1284.30 1288.80 1272.08 16.72 1277.50 Ð 5.00 1282.50 1285.00 1279.00
Jun 24 1300.50 1301.01 1276.73 24.28 1282.50 Ð 11.00 1293.50 1283.25 1286.75
Jun 21 1275.10 1302.30 1270.08 32.22 1293.50 Ï 12.50 1281.00 1290.25 1295.25

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1301.01 1197.90 1423.16 1197.90 1487.80 1340.21 1695.76 1197.90
(24/Jun) (27/Jun) (06/Jun) (27/Jun) (03/May) (20/May) (22/Jan) (27/Jun)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

1301.01 High June 24

1288.80 High June 25

RESISTANCE
1277.79 High June 26

1244.50 High June 27

1197.10 Low June 27

1177.18 Fibo. projection on daily chart

SUPPORT
1153.62 Fibo. projection on daily chart

1077.37 Fibo. projection on daily chart

BUY ----

SELL 1205.00
RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 1221.00
1195.00
TARGET
1188.00

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221‐25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
 Daily Bulletin
Friday 28 June 2013

Forex & Global Market

Page 19 of 19 Twitter: @researchvaf

CLQ3/USD
(Exp.: 22 July 2013)

INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

/CLc1 RSI-14 : 57.70 Ï Mom-14 : Ð EMA 20 : 95.50 Î WMA 55 : 95.11 Ï Daily Trend : Î
=USD RSI-14 : 74.02 Ï Mom-14 : Ð EMA 20 : 82.17 Ï WMA 55 : 81.87 Ï Daily Trend : Ð

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jun 27 95.45 97.38 95.38 2.00 96.77 Ï 1.28 95.49

Jun 26 95.24 96.14 93.71 2.43 95.49 Ï 0.24 95.25
Jun 25 94.89 96.14 94.63 1.51 95.25 Ï 0.30 94.95
Jun 24 93.73 95.78 92.76 3.02 94.95 Ï 1.00 93.95
Jun 21 94.96 95.84 93.12 2.72 93.95 Ð 1.04 94.99

WEEKLY JUNE MAY 2013

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
97.38 92.76 98.74 91.26 97.33 90.15 98.74 85.67
(27/Jun) (24/Jun) (17/Jun) (03/Jun) (20/May) (01/May) (17/Jun) (18/Apr)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

99.52 High 17/Sept. 2012

99.13 High 07/Feb. 2012

RESISTANCE
98.47 High 23/Nov. 2007

97.85 High 31/Mar. 2013

94.29 High 14/Jan. 2013

93.10 Low 16/Jan. 2013

SUPPORT
92.52 Low 12/Des. 2011

90.32 High 28/Des. 2012

BUY ----
SELL 97.00
RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 97.80
96.50
TARGET
96.00

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X‐5 Kav. 1‐2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221‐25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf