231100 Statistics for

Decision Making in Business

04 Random Variables and

Probability Distributions

Asst.Prof. Chutchonook Charutwinyo (DBA) Digital Business, BEC, NU (6501, June 2022)
04-01 Concepts

Binomial

Discrete Hypergeometric

Random Poisson
Variables

Continuous Normal

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04-02 Discrete
Random variables that can assume a countable number
(finite or infinite) of values are called discrete.

Category prize (bahts) probability Category prize (bahts) probability

First Prize 6,000,000 0.000001 Second Prize 200,000 0.000005

Three Digit
4,000 0.000004 Third Prize 80,000 0.000010
Prefix/Suffix

Two Digit Suffix 2,000 0.010000 Fourth Prize 40,000 0.000050

First Prize
100,000 0.000002 Fifth Prize 20,000 0.000100
Neighbors

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04-02 Discrete

Mean or Expected Value = (6,000,000*0.000001)+(4,000*0.000004)+

(2,000*0.01)+(100,000*0.000002)+(200,000*0.000005)+
(80,000*0.00001)+(40,000*0.00005)+(20,000*0.0001)

= 30.02

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04-02 Discrete

Variance = ((6,000,000-30.02)*0.000001)+((4,000-30.02)*0.000004)+
((2,000-30.02)*0.01)+((100,000-30.02)*0.000002)+
((200,000-30.02)*0.000005)+
((80,000-30.02)*0.00001)+((40,000-30.02)*0.00005)+
((20,000-30.02)*0.0001)

= 31.69

Standard Deviation = SQRT(31.69) = 5.63

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04-02 Discrete
Count of No.

% of Grand Total

One Week Data

6404StoreCSV
(7 days)

Purchase Criteria > =if(D2>$L$2,”Y”,”N”)

Length to Stay Criteria = if(G2>$L$3,”Y”,”N”)
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04-02 Discrete
Purchase Criteria Length to Stay
> 4,500 bahts Criteria > 90 mins

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04-03 Binomial

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04-03 Binomial
p = 3/5 = 0.60 = 60.00%
q = 2/5 = 0.40 = 40.00%
Probability of
2 success (x) in 3
trails (n)

= COMBIN(3,2)*0.6^2
*0.4^(3-2)

=0.4320 = 43.20%

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04-03 Binomial
p = 3/5 = 0.60 = 60.00%
q = 2/5 = 0.40 = 40.00%
Probability of
1 success (x) in 3
trails (n)

= COMBIN(3,1)*0.6^1
*0.4^(3-1)

=0.2880 = 28.80%

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04-03 Binomial
p = 3/5 = 0.60 = 60.00%
q = 2/5 = 0.40 = 40.00%
Probability of
3 success (x) in 4
trails (n)

= COMBIN(4,3)*0.6^3
*0.4^(4-3)

=0.3456 = 34.56%

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04-03 Binomial Purchase Criteria
> 4,500 bahts

p = 0.5290 = 52.90%
q = 0.4710 = 47.10%

Probability of 5 preferred customers(x) in 10 walk-in customers (n)

= COMBIN(10,5)*0.5290^5*0.4710^(10-5)

=0.2420 = 24.20%

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04-03 Binomial Purchase Criteria
> 4,500 bahts

p = 0.1951 = 19.51%
q = 0.8049 = 80.49%

Probability of 3 preferred GenY customers(x) in 5 walk-in customers

(n)

= COMBIN(5,3)*0.1951^3*0.8049^(5-3)

=0.0481 = 4.81%

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04-03 Binomial Purchase Criteria
> 4,500 bahts

p = 0.5290 = 52.90%
q = 0.4710 = 47.10%

Probability of 8 preferred GenX or GenY customers(x) in 10 walk-in

customers (n)

= COMBIN(10,8)*0.5290^8*0.4710^(10-8)

=0.0612 = 6.12%

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04-04 Poisson

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04-04 Poisson
Customers/ Customers/
week day

Preferred Customer
Mean = 49.57 cust./day
n = 50 >
=POISSON.DIST(50,49.5
7,FALSE)= 5.62%
n<=50 >
=POISSON.DIST(50,49.5
7,TRUE)= 56.17%
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04-04 Poisson
Customers/ Customers/
week day

Preferred GenX Customer Preferred GenY Customer

Mean = 31.29 customers/day Mean = 18.29 customers/day
n = 25 > n = 20 >
=POISSON.DIST(25,31.29,FA =POISSON.DIST(20,18.29,FA
LSE)= 4.03% LSE)= 8.22%
n<=25 > n<=20 >
=POISSON.DIST(25,31.29,TR =POISSON.DIST(20,18.29,TR
UE)= 14.94% UE)= 70.72%
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04-05 Hypergeometric

Customers/
week

Total Customer (N) = 656

Preferred Customer (r)= 347

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04-05 Hypergeometric
Customers/
week

Total Customer (N) = 656

Preferred Customer (r)= 347
Sampling for prize (n) = 10
Prize for Preferred Customer (x) = 5

P(x) = HYPGEOM.DIST(5,10,347,656,FALSE) = 24.38%

P(<=x) = HYPGEOM.DIST(5,10,347,656,TRUE) = 55.05%

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04-05 Hypergeometric
Customers/
week

Total Customer (N) = 656

GenZ Customer (r)= 107
Sampling for Prize (n) = 20
Prize for GenZ Customer (x) = 10

P(x) = HYPGEOM.DIST(10,20,107,656,FALSE) = 0.03%

P(<=x) = HYPGEOM.DIST(10,20,107,656,TRUE) = 99.99%

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04-05 Hypergeometric
Customers/
week

Total Customer (N) = 656

GenI Customer (r)= 59
Sampling for prize (n) = 50
Prize for GenZ Customer (x) = 5

P(x) = HYPGEOM.DIST(5,50,59,656,FALSE) = 18.70%

P(<=x) = HYPGEOM.DIST(5,50,59,656,TRUE) = 71.21%

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04-06 Normal Distribution

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04-06 Normal Distribution

Approximately
•68% (1 standard deviation)
•95% (2 standard deviation)
•99.7% (3 standard deviation)

=NORM.DIST(x,mean,stdev,TRUE)

=NORM.INV(probability,mean,stdev)

=STANDARDIZE(x,mean,stdev)

=NORM.S.DIST(z,TRUE)

=NORM.S.INV(probability)

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04-06 Normal Distribution
Mean of Purchase (bahts) = 4,538.26
Standard Deviation of Purchase (bahts)= 865.14
Interesting Purchase (bahts) (x) = 5,000

Standard Score of Interesting Purchase (z)

= STANRDIZE(5000,4538.26,865.14) = 0.53

P(<=x) = NORM.DIST(5000,4538.26,865.14,TRUE) = 70.32%

P(<=z) = NORM.S.DIST(0.53,TRUE) = 70.32%

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04-06 Normal Distribution
Mean of Length to Stay (minutes) = 104.07
Standard Deviation of Length to Stay (minutes) = 40.89
Interesting Length to Stay (minutes) (x) = 120

Standard Score of Interesting Length to Stay (z)

= STANRDIZE(120,104.07,40.89) = 0.39

P(<=x) = NORM.DIST(120,104.07,40.89,TRUE) = 65.16%

P(<=z) = NORM.S.DIST(0.39,TRUE) = 65.16%

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04-06 Normal Distribution

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