Development of a Transportation Model for Route Planning and Franchise Analysis of Tricycles-for-Hire

Noriel Christopher C. Tiglao

University of the Philippines Sustainable Transportation and Infrastructure Development (STRIDE) Consulting, Inc.

Outline
Background Tricycle-for-Hire Issues Case Study: Barangay Rizal, Makati City Need for a Transportation Model Way Forward

Urbanization in Metro Manila

High population growth rates and in-migration 13 percent of the countrys population are packed in only about 0.2 percent of the countrys land area Metro Manila dominates the economy accounting for 43.5 percent of the countrys GDP in 2000 The effect of rapid urbanization of the metropolis spilled over the adjoining municipalities Comprised of 17 cities and municipalities
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Population of the Philippines and Metro Manila Metro Manila Philippine Growth Growth Population Census Year Population Rate (%) Rate (%) (000) (000) 1960 27,088 na 2,462 na 1970 36,684 3.08 3,967 4.89 1980 48,098 2.75 5,926 4.1 1990 60,703 2.35 7,928 2.95 2000 76,504 2.34 9,932 2.28 2007 88,545 2.11 11,553 2.18
Source: National Statistics Office

Percent of National Population 9.09% 10.81% 12.32% 13.06% 12.98% 13.05%

Land Area: 636 sq. km Population (2007): 11.55 million Pop. Density (2007): 18,166 persons/ sq. km

Mega-cities in the World 1975 1. Tokyo (19.8) 1. 2. New York (15.9) 2. 3. Shanghai (11.4) 3. 4. Mexico City (11.2) 4. 5. Sao Paulo (10.0) 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19.

2000 Tokyo (26.4) Mexico City (18.1) Bombay (18.1) Sao Paulo (17.8) New York (16.6) Lagos (13.4) Los Angeles (13.1) Calcutta (12.9) Shanghai (12.9) Buenos Aires (12.6) Dhaka (12.3) Karachi (11.8) Delhi (11.7) Jakarta (11.0) Osaka (11.0) Metro Manila (10.9) Beijing (10.8) Rio de Janeiro (10.6) Cairo (10.6)

Note: Population in millions. Source: World Urbanization Report

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23.

2015 Tokyo (26.4) Bombay (26.1) Lagos (23.2) Dhaka (21.1) Sao Paulo (20.4) Karachi (19.2) Mexico City (19.2) New York (17.4) Jakarta (17.3) Calcutta (17.3) Delhi (16.8) Metro Manila (14.8) Shanghai (14.6) Los Angeles (14.1) Buenos Aires (14.1) Cairo (13.8) Istanbul (12.5) Beijing (12.3) Rio de Janeiro (11.9) Osaka (11.0) Tianjin (10.7) Hyderabad (10.5) Bangkok (10.1) 5

Development Pattern
Uncontrolled development that has encouraged urban sprawl, or low density development (residential) at the outer areas Proliferation of low-income households, i.e. informal settlers, in the inner city areas Drastic increase in motorized trips in Metro Manila
10.6 million trips (1980) 16.95 million trips (1996)

Public Transport Modes

GT Express Informal Taxis Formal

MRT/LRT Formal Buses Formal/Informal

Jeepneys Informal

Tricycles Informal
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Urban Travel Demand

Number of Trips by Mode, 1980 and 1996 JUMSUT1 (1980 ) MMUTIS2 ( 1996 ) Mode No. of Trips % to No. of Trips % to % to Total % to Total (000) Mode (000) Mode Public Mode 7,910 100.0 74.4 12,281 100.0 72.5 Train 10 0.1 0.1 385 3.1 2.3 Bus 1,674 21.2 15.7 2,937 23.9 17.3 Jeepney 5,796 73.3 54.5 6,758 55.0 39.9 Tricycle 430 5.4 4.0 2,201 17.9 13.0 Private Mode 2,723 100.0 25.6 4,669 100.0 27.5 Car 1,694 62.2 15.9 3,189 68.3 18.8 Taxi 168 6.2 1.6 1,046 22.4 6.2 Trucks/Others 861 31.6 8.1 434 9.3 2.6 Total 10,633 100.0 16,950 100.0
Notes: 1Metro Manila Transportation Planning Study 2 Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study Source: MMUTIS, 1999

Public Transport Supply

Mode No. of routes Bus No. of terminals Estimated No. of operating units No. of routes Jeepney No. of terminals Estimated No. of operating units Tricycle No. of terminals Estimated No. of operating units Item 1983 149 121 4,400 640 184 29,300 276 17,000 1996 89 61 9,600 486 210 57,400 640 60,700 Increase/ Decrease -67.4% -98.4% 54.2% -31.7% 12.4% 48.9% 56.9% 72.0%

Tricycle-for-Hire Issues
1991 Local Government Code of the Philippines devolved the franchising authority for tricycles-for hire to city governments A popular form of informal public transport but seriously suffers from sustainability issues
Unmanaged increase in number Serious environmental impacts

Messy political situation

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Hard Issues
Weak planning capacity of Local Government Units (LGU) No established data and analysis system for route planning; Lack of guidance from national government Existing laws prescribe that the burden of proof for public necessity and convenience rests on the applicant, and therefore, not on the government
Flawed franchising system

Regulatory capture due to too many operators

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Case Study: Barangay Rizal, Makati City

Source:DKKV-EMI Risk-Sensitive Urban Redevelopment Plan for Barangay Rizal, Makati City

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Case Study: Barangay Rizal, Makati City

Barangay Rizal Population and Density Estimates
Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total No. of HHs 1,929 332 4,996 990 283 548 361 748 781 307 427 757 12,459 % of Total 15.5% 2.7% 40.1% 7.9% 2.3% 4.4% 2.9% 6.0% 6.3% 2.5% 3.4% 6.1% 100.0% Estimated Population 9,645 1,660 24,980 4,950 1,415 2,740 1,805 3,740 3,905 1,535 2,135 3,785 62,295 Land Area (sq. km) 0.0672 0.0552 0.0758 0.0456 0.039 0.0315 0.057 0.0651 0.0625 0.0295 0.0489 0.0472 0.6245 Pop. Density (persons/ sq. km) 143,527 30,072 329,551 108,553 36,282 86,984 31,667 57,450 62,480 52,034 43,661 80,191 99,752

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Case Study: Barangay Rizal, Makati City

Local Transport Conditions

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Case Study: Barangay Rizal, Makati City

Mode Share Mode Car Tricycle Walk Motorcycle Bicycle Taxi Others Total No. of Trips % Share 18,320 39.3% 15,614 33.5% 8,220 17.6% 3,163 6.8% 768 1.6% 480 1.0% 94 0.2% 46659 100.0%

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Tricycle Operators and Drivers Association (TODA)

Short Name 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 UTPETODA MILTODA MAYATODA WOODTODA SAKATODA AJAFTODA RATODA Long Name Ususan-Taguig-Pembo TODA Maya TODA Woodpecker TODA Samahan Kapatiran ng Tricycle sa Sona Dos Aquino Jacinto-Floraville TODA Aquino Jacinto-Floraville TODA Pembo-Comembo-Rizal Transit Service Cooperative Inc. Terminal Location Blueboz St.-Amarillo St. Milflores St. Maya St. Woodpecker St. M.H. del Pilar St. Jacinto St. Floraville St. Xyris St. South Sea St.-Amorseco St. Maya St. Floraville St. Pembo-Sampaguita St. South Sea St. Registered Members 179 40 60 40 54 41 45 42 27 15 51 57 55a 250b -

8 PCTSCI 9 PATDATODA 10 SARATODA Sarcen TODA 11 MFDTODA Milflores-Floraville-Del Pilar TODA 12 PEMSATODA Pembo-Sampaguita TODA 13 TSSODA 14 STOD Samahang Tricycle Operators and Drivers 15 YBRCTODA a Not updated b Indicates active members. Number of registered members is 348.

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TRICYCLE PICK-UP AND DROP-OFF SURVEY

Tricycle Pick-Up and Drop-Off Survey Purpose - To establish the characteristics of tricycle operations in and around Barangay Rizal Sampling - The survey form is structured as a diary-type survey where the enumerators are the tricycle drivers; 4 per Tricycle Operators and Drivers Association (TODA)

Tricyle Driver: License Plate: Passenger 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Risk-Sensitive Urban Redevelopment Plan for Barangay Rizal, Makati City Date: TODA: Weather: Origin Destination Boarding Boarding Alighting Zone Zone Location Time Location

Alighting Time

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Location of Tricycle Terminals

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State of Tricycle Operations

MFDTODA
Sample 1 2 3 Average Service Time (in mins.) 10 4 9 8 Turn-around Time (in mins.) 29 28 18 25 16 16.0 29 3.8 12.2

Assumed Hours of Operation = Calculated Hours of Operation = Average No. of Round Trips = Total Service Time (hrs.) = Total Turn-around Time (hrs.) =

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Operational Characteristics of AJAFTODA

State of Tricycle Operations

AJAFTODA
Sample 1 2 3 4 5 Average Service Time (in mins.) 4 7 6 5 9 6 Turn-around Time (in mins.) 23 37 30 30 32 30 16 16.0 26 2.7 13.3

Assumed Hours of Operation = Calculated Hours of Operation = Average No. of Round Trips = Total Service Time (hrs.) = Total Turn-around Time (hrs.) =

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State of Tricycle Operations

PEMSATODA
Sample 1 2 Average Service Time (in mins.) 6 4 5 Turn-around Time (in mins.) 25 30 28 16 16.0 30 2.5 13.5

Assumed Hours of Operation = Calculated Hours of Operation = Average No. of Round Trips = Total Service Time (hrs.) = Total Turn-around Time (hrs.) =

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Operational Characteristics of AJAFTODA

State of Tricycle Operations

MAYATODA
Sample 1 2 3 4 5 Average Service Time (in mins.) 7 10 10 7 5 8 Turn-around Time (in mins.) 33 23 44 42 28 34 16 16.0 23 3.0 13.0

Assumed Hours of Operation = Calculated Hours of Operation = Average No. of Round Trips = Total Service Time (hrs.) = Total Turn-around Time (hrs.) =

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State of Tricycle Operations

MILTODA
Sample 1 2 3 4 Average Service Time (in mins.) 7 6 6 5 6 Turn-around Time (in mins.) 26 24 27 33 28 16 16.0 29 2.9 13.1

Assumed Hours of Operation = Calculated Hours of Operation = Average No. of Round Trips = Total Service Time (hrs.) = Total Turn-around Time (hrs.) =

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Need for a Transportation Model

Capture and manage all tricycle-for-hire sector information
Need for a rapid assessment tool to evaluate financial, social and environmental issues

Enable the city to properly plan tricycle-for-hire operations in the city

Capabilities for route design and optimization

Promote an efficient and sustainable local tricycle-forhire industry

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Modeling Issues
How to model tricycle operations
No fixed routes, No time schedules Operate on areas/ zones

How to balance demand and supply

Optimization problem Possibly, spatial microsimulation/ agent-based models

How to model revenue and cost behavior

Important in improving franchise decisions Show winners-losers

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Way Forward
Leverage on the power of transport model to visualize alternative futures
Good political communication

Quezon City is addressing the tricycle issue due to strong political pressure
Drive the development of a model for route planning and franchise analysis

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Thank you!

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