GCE A Level Maths 9709

SMIYL
April 2023

6.5 Hypothesis Tests

In this topic we will learn how to:
• formulate hypotheses and carry out a hypothesis test in the context of
a single observation from a population which has a binomial or poisson
distribution using direct evaluation of probabilities
Discrete Tests (Binomial and Poisson)

The steps for formulating a hypothesis test under discrete conditions

are very similar to those under normal conditions:

Step 1

Define the random variable

Step 2
State the distribution of the random variable

Step 3
State null and alternative hypotheses

Step 4
Define the distribution assuming H0 is true

Step 5
State the rejection rule

Step 6
Substitute the test statistic into H1 and evaluate the probability

1
 Step 7
Use the rejection rule to determine whether to reject or accept H0

Step 8
Conclude in context

Let’s look at some past paper questions.

1. Arvind uses a fair 6-sided die to play a game. He believes he has a system
to predict the score when the die is thrown. Before each throw of the die,
he writes down what he thinks the score will be. He claims that he can
write the correct score more often than he would if he were just guessing.
His friend Laxmi tests his claim by asking him to write down the score
before each of 15 throws of the die. Arvind writes down the correct score
on exactly 5 out of 15 throws. Test Arvind’s claim at the 10% significance
level. (9709/61/M/J/22 number 2)

Define the random variable,

X - r.v, number of correct scores that Arvind gets

State the distribution of X,

X ∼ B(15, p)

State null and alternative hypotheses,

1
H0 : p =
6
1
H1 : p >
6

Note: We’re testing for a definite increase, since we want to

test whether Arvind gets the scores correct more often with his
system, hence upper-tail test.

Assuming H0 is true,  
1
X ∼ B 15,
6

2
 For an upper-tail test, at the 10% significance level, state the
rejection rule,
Reject H0 if P (X ≥ c) < 0.100

Note: The sign inside the probability statement is based upon

the alternative hypothesis. If it is an upper tail test we use ≥,
lower-tail we use ≤. We always check whether that probability
is less than the siginificance level. c represents the test statistic.

The test statistic is 5. Substitute the test statistic into the re-
jection rule,
P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − P (X < 5)

h P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − i
1 4 5 11

3
12 15 1 2 5 13 5 14 5 15
C3 × 16 × 65 1
15


15






C4 × 6 × 6 + + C2 × 6 × 6 +15 C1 × 6 × 6 + 6

P (X ≥ 5) = 0.0898

Compare 0.0898 to the rejection rule,

Reject H0 if P (X ≥ c) < 0.100

0.0898 < 0.100

Reject H0 in favour of H1

Conclude in context,

There is evidence at the 10% significance level, that Arvind has a system
to predict the score when the die is thrown.

2. The number of absences per week by workers at a factory has the distribu-
tion P o(2.1). Following a change in working conditions, the management
wished to test whether the mean number of absences has decreased. They
found that, in a randomly chosen 3-week period, they were exactly 2 ab-
sences. Carry out the test at the 10% significance level. (9709/63/O/N/20
number 5)

3
Define the random variable,

X - r.v, number of absences per 3-week period

State the distribution of X,

X ∼ P o(λ)

State null and alternative hypotheses,

H0 : λ = 6.3

H1 : λ < 6.3

Note: We’re testing for a definite decrease, hence lower-tail test.

Assuming H0 is true,
X ∼ P o(6.3)

For an upper-tail test, at the 10% significance level, state the

rejection rule,
Reject H0 if P (X ≤ c) < 0.100

The test statistic is 5. Substitute the test statistic into the re-
jection rule,  2 
6.3
P (X ≤ 2) = e−6.3 + 6.3 + 1
2!
P (X ≤ 2) = 0.0498

Compare 0.0498 to the rejection rule,

Reject H0 if P (X ≤ c) < 0.100

0.0498 < 0.100

Reject H0 in favour of H1

Conclude in context,

There is evidence at the 10% significance level, that the mean number of
absences has decreased.