Argus Phosphates

Formerly Argus FMB Phosphates

Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PRICES

Chinese SSP/TSP available, DAP/MAP to follow? Key price assessments $/t

Chinese producers are showing their eagerness to export. 22 Feb 15 Feb

Demand is firm across Asia with several deals emerging. Argus DAP index, points 168.035 168.016 t

Meanwhile, there are signs of interest growing in Brazil, DAP/MAP - fob bulk

Europe and the US. DAP/MAP Tampa 600-605 600-605 34

DAP China 580-592 580-592 34

Ma’aden continued to take advantage of China’s absence,
DAP Saudi Arabia 570-636 575-609 t
selling DAP to Thailand and Bangladesh and MAP to Brazil
MAP Baltic 504-506 513-515 u
and Australia, totalling 205,000t. DAP/MAP – cfr bulk
But Chinese TSP and SSP looks more available for export DAP India 595 595 34

with trade and offers in Brazil and Asia. The NRDC will meet DAP Pakistan 627 627 34

again next week to decide the fate of DAP and MAP exports MAP Brazil 560 560 34

but 11-44 and 10-50 is being offered, at least for April load- Phosphoric acid India/t P2O5 968 968 34

DAP - fca
ing.
DAP Benelux fot/fob duty paid/free 644-660 635-656 t
In the spot market, southeast Asia generally looks short
See page 2 for full price table
on DAP with China still out. Thailand bought Saudi DAP at
$645/t cfr. Vietnam and Myanmar are actively looking. Key Indicative Prices USD/t
In India, RCF bought 80,000t of Moroccan and Russian DAP Brazil MAP cfr Chinese DAP fob India DAP cfr
in the prevailing mid-$590s/t cfr. Pakistan tyre-kicked but 700
did not buy.
650
West of Suez, a trader MAP sale at $570/t cfr Brazil is still
unconfirmed. Most indications remain at $560/t cfr while of- 600
fers for fresh Moroccan loads are higher.
550 hhhhhhh
The weather kept the northwest European market slow
but the price outlook is firm because of low supply. 500

450
MARKET DRIVERS
400
China DAP/MAP supply to become clearer 23 Feb 23 22 Jun 23 19 Oct 23 22 Feb 24
There is no real clarity yet on exactly when, and by how
much, China will turn the export taps back on. But the NRDC DATA & DOWNLOAD INDEX
will meet the industry again next week to decide policy. „ Ferts Phosphates Spot Deals
„ Phosphate deliveries to Indian ports
30-60 DAY OUTLOOK „ Phosphates producer commitments
„ Moroccan phosphate and NPK exports
Firm until China returns „ DAP deliveries to Pakistan
Producers will make the most of strong DAP demand in the „ MAP deliveries to Brazil
east while China remains closed. Demand for phosphates will „ Russian MAP, DAP exports
„ Phosphoric acid deliveries to Indian ports
focus on SSP in Brazil while buyers are hopefully waiting for
„ Indian DAP stocks and sales
China to add to MAP supply.
View the methodology used to assess phosphate prices
at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback
is always welcome at fertilizer@argusmedia.com

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Licensed to: Abbes Lahlou, OCP S.A.
 Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

PHOSPHATE PRICES AND DERIVATIVES Phosphates prices $/t

22 Feb 15 Feb ±
Direct Hedge - 22 February Argus DAP index, points 168.035 168.016 0.019 t

Month Bid Offer Mid DAP/MAP/MCP/DAP/TSP/SSP – fob bulk

DAP/MAP Tampa 600-605 600-605 0.00 34
DAP fob Nola (st) DAP/MAP Tampa equivalent Brazil 531-533 535-537 4.00 u

Mar 565 575 570 DAP Tampa equivalent India 537-539 537-539 0.00 34
DAP Tunisia 595-610 595-610 0.00 34
Apr 540 550 545
DAP Egypt 600-615 595-620 0.00 34
May 530 545 538 DAP Morocco 545-615 555-615 5.00 u

Jun 525 535 530 DAP Morocco P2O5 equiv 935.07 944.23 9.16 u
DAP Morocco equivalent US terminals 629-662 623-656 6.00 t
Q2 530 545 538 DAP Lithuania Baltic 604-620 595-616 6.50 t
MAP Brazil (mt) DAP Russia Baltic/Black Sea 540-563 540-579 8.00 u
DAP China 580-592 580-592 0.00 34
Mar 545 565 555
DAP China P2O5 equiv 985.11 997.45 12.34 u
Apr 545 565 555 DAP Saudi Arabia (KSA) 570-636 575-609 11.00 t
May 535 555 545 DAP Jordan 552-626 555-607 8.00 t
DAP Mexico 593-631 593-602 14.50 t
DAP/MAP Australia 525-638 525-631 3.50 t
DAP US Gulf domestic barge $/st 580.0-610.0 575.0-584.0 15.50 t
DAP Central Florida railcar $/st 630.0 630.0 0.00 34
DAP China ex-works 514-535 487-528 17.00 t
DAP Benelux fot/fob duty paid/free 644-660 635-656 6.50 t

Phosphate freight MAP Baltic 504-506 513-515 9.00 u

MAP China 11-44 439-450 439-450 0.00 34
Rate ($/t) MAP China 10-50 492-498 488-498 2.00 t
Loading Destination Tonnage
Low/High MAP China 11-52 525-530 525-530 0.00 34
MAP Morocco 535-615 535-615 0.00 34
Finished Phosphates MAP Saudi Arabia (KSA) 530-654 531-649 2.00 t
Tampa WC India 55-60 56 58 TSP Tunisia 400-440 400-440 0.00 34

Morocco Brazil 25-35 23 25 TSP Morocco 390-445 390-445 0.00 34

TSP China 380-405 380-400 2.50 t
Tampa Brazil 25-35 27 29 TSP eastern Med (Lebanon/Israel) 390-445 390-445 0.00 34
Baltic Brazil 25-35 54 56 MCP bagged fob south China 520.00-550.00 530.00-550.00 5.00 u

Baltic India 25-35 88 89 MCP bagged ex-works south China 458.77-472.67 460.44-502.30 15.65 u
DCP bagged ex-works south China 305.84-312.80 293.01-306.96 9.34 t
KSA EC India 25-35 23 25 SSP 19% P2O5 cfr Brazil 195-200 195-200 0.00 34
China India 45-55 22 28 SSP 20% P2O5 cfr Brazil 205-210 205-210 0.00 34

China Pakistan 40-45 29 31 DAP /MAP – cfr bulk

DAP/MAP Argentina/Uruguay 585-600 580-590 7.50 t
China Brazil 45-55 30 35
MAP Brazil 11-52 560 560 0.00 34
China (South) Thailand 6-8 15 20 MAP Brazil 11-52 P2O5 equiv 903.32 898.72 4.60 t
Egypt Brazil 30-35 25 30 MAP Brazil 10-50 (ex-China) 523-528 523-528 0.00 34
MAP Brazil 10-50 (ex-China) P2O5 equiv 886.87 882.52 4.35 t
Phosphate Rock
MAP Brazil 11-44 (ex-China) 474-480 474-480 0.00 34
Morocco South Brazil 30 23 25 MAP Brazil 11-44 (ex-China) P2O5 equiv 878.93 873.49 5.44 t
Red Sea WC/EC India 25-35 42 44 MAP South Africa 560-570 560-565 2.50 t
DAP India 595 595 0.00 34
Red Sea Indonesia 25-35 46 48
DAP India P2O5 equiv 1,018.63 1,018.63 0.00 34
Morocco US 25-35 25 27 DAP Pakistan 627 627 0.00 34
DAP Turkey 618-630 618-630 0.00 34
DAP Romania (bagged fca) 635-640 635-640 0.00 34
Raw material contracts $/t DAP east coast Africa 595-600 595-600 0.00 34
±

Phosphoric acid/t – P2O5

cfr India 1Q24 968 4Q23 985 17.00 u
cfr western Europe 4Q23 1,060-1,150 3Q23 1,000-1,077 66.50 t
Phosphate rock (% BPL)
Average imported variable costs of DAP production $/t
fob Jordan (68-70) 4Q23 118-129 3Q23 129 5.50 u
cfr India (66-68) 4Q23 136-145 3Q23 134-142 2.50 t 22 Feb 15 Feb ±
cfr India (68-70) 4Q23 211-228 3Q23 211-220 4.00 t
Imported ammonia and sulphur
cfr India (70-72) 4Q23 228-235 3Q23 220-230 6.50 t
cfr China 116.125 118.050 1.93 u
fob Morocco (68-70) 4Q23 125-165 3Q23 136-217 31.50 u
cfr India 118.800 123.263 4.46 u
fob Morocco (70-72) 4Q23 165-290 3Q23 218-280 21.50 u
cfr North Africa 134.588 138.438 3.85 u
fob Algeria (65-68) 4Q23 103-130 3Q23 109-126 1.00 u
cfr US 126.164 129.602 3.44 u
fob Egypt (66) Jan24 110-135 Dec23 110-130 2.50 t
For further information on how these assessments are calculated,
fob Egypt (57-61) Jan24 57-92 Dec23 51-95 1.50 t
please click here.
cfr Southeast Asia (57-61) Jan24 87-142 Dec23 87-131 5.50 t
Sulphur
cfr Tampa 1Q24 69 4Q23 102 33.00 u
Argus freight rates are assessed in consultation with
cfr north Africa 1Q24 75-97 4Q23 100-127 27.50 u producers, traders and buyers and freight broker service
Ammonia
provider Nueva Seas.
cfr Tampa Feb24 445 Jan24 525 80.00 u

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Issue Ref: 587877

Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

Selected Spot Sales - 22 February

Origin Seller Buyer Destination Volume ('000t) Price Delivery Period

Morocco OCP TBC Western Europe 16 DAP $585-595/t fob Mar/Apr

Morocco OCP TBC Western Europe <5 DAP $610/t fob Feb
Moroco OCP TBC Latin America (not Brazil) 31 DAP/MAP $550/t fob Mar
Saudi Arabia Ma'aden TBC Australia 65 MAP Formula Mar
Saudi Arabia Ma'aden TBC Bangladesh 45 DAP g2g Mar
Saudi Arabia Ma'aden TBC Brazil 65 MAP Formula Mar
Saudi Arabia Ma'aden TBC Thailand 30 DAP $645/t cfr Mar
TBC MGI RCF India 50 DAP $594.75/t cfr Mar
Russia Trader RCF India 30 DAP $594.75/t cfr Mar
China Producer TBC Brazil 10 SSP $205/t cfr Apr

Selected 2024 phosphate tenders

Holder/Country Product Volume ('000t) Closing date Shipment Status

KSCL/Nepal DAP 25 22-Dec Delivery within 107 days of opening L/C Offers in
BCIC/Bangladesh phosrock 25 6-Feb Within 30 days of receiving L/C Offers in
Fact/India phosrock 40 7-Feb Arrival at Kochi between 1-30 March Awarded
RCF, KSCL/Nepal DAP 25 13-Feb Within 30 days of issuing purchase order Closed
RCF/India DAP 50 20-Feb Shipment by 28 March Awarded
RCF/India DAP/MAP 44 26-Feb Two 22,000t lots to Hay Bunder Open

THE PHOSPHATES WORLD THIS WEEK

Saudi Arabia - sells

65,000t MAP to
Brazil and same
volume to Austra-
lia under formula;
plus 45,000t DAP
US - DAP and MAP barge to Bangladesh
prices firmed through the under g2g and
week 30,000t DAP to
Thailand
Tunisia - CPG aims to raise
rock exports to 400,000-
500,000t in 2024
China - TSP/SSP more avail-
able for export; NRDC to de-
Pakistan - DAP cide on DAP/MAP next week;
stocks rise in 11-44 and 10-50 on offer
January; some
tyre kicking for
Saudi DAP
India - RCF buys 80,000t DAP
at $594.75/t cfr; Fact awards
Sun International at $217/t cfr
for rock tender

Kenya - NCPB TSP ten-

Brazil - Chinese SSP trades at Thailand - buys 30,000t of
der likely to be met by
$205/t cfr for 20pc product; Saudi DAP at $645/t cfr
OCP stocks
MAP offers firm towards $580/t
cfr but nothing confirmed be-
yond $560/t cfr; Ma’aden sells
65,000t MAP on formula

Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section.
For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf

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Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

NORTH AMERICA Mosaic said it still expects to increase phosphate produc-

US
Mosaic reported no export sales this week.
US Domestic
Nola DAP prices rose this week amid tight supply exacer-
bated by delayed import vessels.
DAP rose to $580-610/st fob Nola from $575-584/st fob last
week. The range’s high end was capped by trade on Wednes-
day for a loaded barge at $610/st fob Nola. A 1H March barge
selling at $580/st fob Nola early in the week framed the
low end. Domestic DAP also traded this week at $610/st fob
Nola.
Nola MAP fell week over week by $2.50/st on a midpoint
basis to $610-625/st fob Nola on trade for March barges.
Imported MAP transacted at $610/st fob Nola and domestic
product sold at $625/st fob.
Some market participants expect prices to continue to
firm in the near term on limited supply.
tion later this year. The company’s chief executive, Bruce
Bodine, said in an earnings call on Thursday that Mosaic is
on track over the next few quarters to achieve production
of 8mn t/year. Last year, it produced about 6.6mn t, or an
average of 1.64mn t/quarter.
Mosaic expects to ship 1.6mn-1.8mn t of phosphate in the
first quarter of 2024, with DAP selling at an average of $580-
605/t fob plant. It shipped 1.8mn t in January-March 2023.
Nutrien’s phosphate fertilizer sales rose to 579,000t in the
fourth quarter of 2023 from 391,000t a year earlier. For all
of 2023, its phosphate fertilizer shipments climbed by about
200,000t, or 13pc, to 1.9mn t. Nutrien noted that its produc-
tion rose because of improved reliability at its Aurora plant
in North Carolina.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

USD/BRL
CENTRAL AND LATIN AMERICA
USD/BRL
Brazil 5.40
A trader reports selling 5,000t of Russian MAP at $570/t cfr 5.30
loading end February. This was not confirmed on the sell
5.20
side. Otherwise there was remarkable consensus that prices
were still around $560/t cfr. Producers are trying to raise 5.10
prices on tight supply with fresh Moroccan loaders being of- hhhhhhhhhhh

5.00
fered at $580/t cfr but gaining no traction as yet.
Chinese 11-44 is on offer at $460-485/t cfr for April ship- 4.90
ment. There are no 10-50 offers as yet in the market. 4.80

4.70
Argentina
Feb 23 Apr 23 Jun 23 Aug 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Jan 24
Buyers are on the sidelines, mostly waiting for more Chinese
phosphates to become available. Prices are still around MAP cfr Brazil vs soybean barter rateUSD/t, bags/t
$585-590/t cfr.
MAP bulk Brazil cfr (LHS)
Uruguay Soybeans Rondonopolis barter rate 60kg bag per 1t NPK (RHS)
700 20
MAP/DAP is at $600/t cfr. There has been a major $60/t hike
in the last month and a half in the regional market. 650 19

600 18
Paraguay
MAP/DAP is at $625-640/t cfr with the low end for May ship- 550 17
ment. 500 16

Colombia 450 15

DAP imports were just under 1,700t in December, sourced 400 14

mainly from Russia. Full-year imports reached 122,000t of 23 Feb 23 22 Jun 23 19 Oct 23 22 Feb 24
which the US accounted for nearly 40pc, Morocco 26pc and
Russia 21pc. A further 13pc was sourced from China. Overall
imports were up 30,000t on the 91,200t imported in 2022
when Morocco did not ship any tonnage. But 2023 still lags
the 165,000t taken in 2021 and 177,000t imported in 2020,
reflecting falling product from the US.
MAP imports reached 13,500t in December with the
US supplying 8,000t and Russia 5,500t. Full year imports
reached 175,000t with 58pc coming from the US and 25pc
from Russia. Morocco supplied another 15pc. The total is an
85,000t increase on the 91,000t imported in 2022 as ship-
ments from all three major suppliers rose substantially, and
roughly on par with imports in 2021 and 2020.

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Argus Phosphates
EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIET UNION
Russia
Rising demand in the domestic market is capping availability
for exports. MAP is priced at around $550/t ex-warehouse in
Krasnodar.
Germany
Heavy rain has stalled application and sales of pretty much
all fertilizers.
DAP prices range €595-610/t fca with Moroccan at the low-
er end and Russian at the high end. Availability is tight and
delivery slots in March are now hard to find. Fresh enquiries
may not get product before the first half of April.
France
DAP is at €610/t fca Rouen and looking firm as farmers are
now looking to secure supply from limited stocks.
UK
DAP is around £565/ bagged delivered. Fresh Moroccan prod-
uct is on offer at $650/t cfr.
Spain
There is no change to DAP prices at €630-640/t fca, €650/t
DAT Santander.
Spain imported just over 12,500t of DAP in December,
almost all of it sourced from OCP Morocco.
Full-year DAP imports reached around 178,000t of which
Morocco supplied 75pc and Egypt 10pc. Russia accounted
for another 6pc. The numbers are a major recovery from
the 103,000t imported in 2022 when the market was beset
by high nitrogen prices and a lack of spend on DAP imports.
They are more in line with the 202,000t imported in 2021
but not yet at the 379,000t imported in 2020. Morocco has
remained the main supplier throughout the period.
Italy
Some DAP was on offer €610/t fca in big bags, but most
sales remained int the range €615-620/t fca in big bags. High
stocks of DAP in Savona, on the northwest coast, is adding
pressure to prices in the region.
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Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024
Turkey
Low demand and ample supply are keeping domestic DAP
prices far below cfr levels, making imports unappealing.
Some interest in DAP is emerging ahead of the upcoming
planting season, but uninspiring grain prices have discour-
aged farmers from buying.
Domestic DAP stocks are high because of restrictions on
exports. Prices in the domestic market are equivalent to as
low as $545/t cfr.
Ukraine
Ukraine imported nearly 3,700t of MAP in December, mostly
from China with regional suppliers making up the rest. Year-
to-date imports reached just over 108,000t with Bulgaria
accounting for 42pc, Kazakhstan 16pc and Morocco 13pc.
This is a major recovery from the 22,250t taken in 2022
followin the onset of the conflict with Russia. Imports are
yet to reach pre-war levels of 140,000-160,000t/yr taken in
2020 and 2021.
DAP imports reached just over 1,300t in December, mostly
taken from Bulgaria. Full year imports reached 76,000t, with
Poland supplying 28pc, Bulgaria 21pc and Morocco 13pc.
Turkey supplied 13pc and Lithuania 12pc of the total. This
is also a recovery from the 11,600t imported in 2022 as the
conflict with Russia began. Imports were previously 141,000t
in 2021. Lithuania had been a major supplier but production
issues there meant less supply in 2022 and 2023.
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Argus Phosphates
AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST
Morocco
OCP reports selling 16,000t of DAP at $580-600/t fob for
March/April shipment to western Europe. It sold less than
5,000t of DAP for February loading to the same destination
netting around $610-620/t fob. A further 31,000t of DAP/MAP
was sold to a Latin American market (excluding Brazil) at
around $545-555/t fob for March shipment.
Egypt
Trader indications for DAP ranged $600-615/t fob.
Saudi Arabia
Ma'aden has made fresh sales of DAP and MAP for March
shipment, as follows:
„ 65,000t of MAP to Australia priced under formula
„ 45,000t of DAP to Bangladesh under a government-to-
government agreement
„ 65,000t of MAP to Brazil sold under formula
„ 30,000t of DAP to Thailand at $645/t cfr, netting back to
the mid/high-$610s/t fob
Houthi missile hits Saudi fertilizer vessel off Yemen
The Belize-flagged Handysize bulk carrier Rubymar, carry-
ing a cargo of Saudi fertilizer (thought to be NP)was hit by a
missile fired by Houthi militants late on 18 February.
The British-owned vessel was in the Gulf of Aden near the
Bab el-Mandeb strait when it was hit by at least one mis-
sile while another missed its target, according to US Central
Command.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said it had re-
ceived reports of an attack 40 miles (about 64.4km) south of
Mokha, Yemen, on an unnamed vessel. US Central Command
confirmed that the Rubymar sustained damage and then is-
sued a distress call that was answered by a coalition warship
and another merchant vessel.
The crew was evacuated safely and have been transported
to the port of Djibouti, according to the Djibouti Ports and
Free Zones Authority.
The Rubymar was last located on vessel-tracking data in
the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti. The
UKMTO said the vessel was at anchor and had been aban-
doned. A Houthi social media statement said the ship was at
risk of sinking.
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Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024
The vessel departed the Saudi port of Ras al-Khair on 8
February and was bound for Varna, Bulgaria, on the western
edge of the Black Sea, vessel-tracking data show. It was due
to arrive on 27 February.
There has been no confirmation as to what grade of
fertilizer was on board, although vessel-tracking data do list
fertilizers as the cargo. Bulgaria in the past has imported
NP grades from Saudi Arabia. A spokesperson for the Saudi
producer declined to comment on any aspect of the inci-
dent. The size of the vessel would indicate a cargo of about
30,000t.
At the time of going to press, it was understood the ves-
sel was still afloat but listing badly by the stern, the engine
room and one hold having flooded. The operator is attempt-
ing to salvage the vessel and have it towed to Djibouti.
This is the second confirmed major strike on a vessel car-
rying fertilizer in the region. In mid-January, the US-owned
Genco Picardy, carrying a cargo of 30pc P2O5 phosphate
rock from Egypt to India, came under drone attack by Houthi
militants. This caused a fire onboard that was extinguished
and the vessel proceeded to Thoothukudi.
East Africa
Recent spot DAP sales remained in the range $595-600/t cfr
for Saudi Arabian product.
South Africa
MAP was assessed at $560-570/t cfr on indications. Imported
Russian product remains available at $585/t fca in bulk.
Argus DAP index points
190
180
170
160
150
hhhhhhhhhhh
140
130
120
23 Feb 23 15 Jun 23 5 Oct 23 1 Feb 24
Argus Phosphates
INDIAN SUBCONTINENT
India
India's RCF bought 80,000t of DAP this week at $594.75/t cfr:
„ Under its enquiry to buy 50,000t of DAP that closed on
20 February, RCF got two offers from MGI and Ameropa,
but the latter's offer was disqualified. At presstime MTI was
awarded for shipment by 28 March.
„ RCF separately bought 30,000t of Russian product with a
trading firm at the same price for first-half March shipment.
These are in addition to RCF's tender to buy two 22,000t
cargoes of DAP/MAP that closes on 26 February.
The February DAP line up now stands at 202,000t with
March at nearly 300,000t and April at 60,000t. The first
quarter import line up is currently at just over 540,000t,
compared to nearly 1.3mn t in the first quarter of 2023.
DAP stocks mostly steady in January
Indian DAP stocks were drawn down by the equivalent of one
import cargo in January, according to Fertilizer Association
of India (FAI) data, keeping stocks steady. But imports were
very low, partly reflecting a lack of Chinese exports.
India produced 346,600t of DAP in January, FAI data
show, down from 390,600t a year earlier. Imports were
just 44,000t — a Saudi vessel — compared with 562,000t in
January last year. Sales were down by 16pc to 417,900t from
499,300t a year earlier.
The stockbuild/stockdraw (production plus imports minus
sales) was modest at a 27,300t draw. This implies that stocks
are still 1.9mn-2mn t, as estimated by the Indian govern-
ment.
Stocks have fallen continuously from August as sales have
outpaced lacklustre imports. Stocks dropped by 2.2mn t in
July-October last year.
Argus estimates February-March 2024 imports at nearly
540,000t, coming entirely from Saudi Arabia and Morocco
and reflecting the lack of Chinese product owing to customs
inspections and the onset of the Chinese domestic season.
This compares with just over 700,000t of DAP imports in the
same two months of 2023.
Looking at the fertilizer year to date (from April 2023),
production is 5pc up at nearly 3.8mn t but imports have
fallen by 13pc to nearly 5.1mn t. Sales have risen by 5.3pc to
10.1mn t.
Pakistan
A 30,000t Saudi DAP cargo was offered for April shipment to
two buyers but no deal ensued.
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Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024
Pakistan builds DAP stocks, rabi probably covered
Low offtake allowed steady imports to build Pakistan's DAP
stocks last month, despite disruptions to domestic produc-
tion.
The country ended January with 72,000t of DAP in stock,
up from just 25,000t at the end of December, according to
the national fertilizer development centre (NFDC).
DAP offtake slumped by 30pc on the year to 67,000t last
month, from 96,000t in January 2023. But this brings the
total October-January offtake to 642,000t, which is 14pc
higher than over the same period last year.
Severe flooding drastically reduced DAP demand over the
October 2022-March 2023 rabi season to 710,000t. The aver-
age DAP offtake over the preceding three rabi seasons had
been 1.04mn t.
Domestic DAP production fell to 29,000t last month
because of delayed phosphoric acid deliveries caused by
disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea. Fauji is Pakistan's only
DAP producer and it sources phosphoric acid from Morocco
for its 70,000 t/month Port Qasim DAP facility. The plant is
now running at capacity again, Fauji said.
Domestic October-January DAP production totalled
245,000t. Total production over this rabi season is projected
to reach 390,000t, provided Fauji's plant continues to run as
normal.
The NFDC expects rabi DAP demand to total 814,000t, up
by 15pc from the 2022-23 rabi season but still down from
seasons before the floods in 2022.
The NFDC said Pakistan imported 90,000t of DAP last
month, bringing the total since the beginning of October to
450,000t. October-March arrivals are currently due to reach
560,000t, according to Argus line-up data.
Given an opening inventory of 38,000t at the beginning of
October and anticipated total production of 390,000t, the
current DAP line-up is likely to be sufficient to meet rabi
demand, ending the season with around 170,000t in stock.
But this week there were reports that an importer was
enquiring for another DAP cargo. If more sales emerge they
will add security to DAP supply while further impacts to
domestic production caused by the issues in the Red Sea
remain possible.
Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

EAST ASIA AND OCEANIA Thailand

China
DAP export prices held steady at $580-592/t fob as suppliers
continued to withhold offers thanks to the ongoing export
restrictions. Buyers and sellers are waiting for further clari-
fication on export policy, with expectations that there will
more updates from next week onwards.
While there were no fresh indications for DAP, some sup-
pliers and traders are offering MAP and TMAP as they are
optimistic that customs inspections could be carried out in
the coming months, but there are no firm deals yet. Sup-
pliers are offering around $450-460/t fob for 11-44 granular
MAP, $500-510/t fob for 10-50 granular MAP, and $760-800/t
fob for TMAP.
China Domestic
DAP/MAP prices were steady-to-slightly firmer on pre-holiday
levels. Some expect a rebound in phosphate prices in the
coming weeks as spring planting gradually starts and the
likelihood of exports rises. Latest price indications for do-
mestic producers are as follows:
„ Yn3,700-3,850/t ex-works Hubei for 18-46 DAP;
„ Yn3,200-3,400/t ex-works Hubei for 15-42 DAP;
„ Yn3,000-3,150/t ex-works for 11-44 powdered MAP;
Ma’aden sold 30,000t of DAP into Thailand this week at
$645/t cfr for March delivery, with the freight cost indicated
around $28/t.
Domestic DAP prices are around 24,800 baht/t ($692/t) ex-
warehouse for cargoes that are due to arrive in end-Febru-
ary. But importers want to raise DAP prices to around 25,000
baht/t ($697/t) ex-warehouse for end-March cargoes.
The irrigation season has ended, with the next main ap-
plication season likely to only begin in end-April.
Vietnam
Latest offers for 64pc DAP to Vietnam are indicated around
$630/t cfr but there are limited offers of Chinese DAP.
Myanmar
DAP cargoes of Vietnamese and Egyptian origin sold earlier
in January will be arriving in Myanmar. Prices of the Egyp-
tian DAP were around $680/t cfr.
Domestic importers are more active this week looking to buy
DAP, but no deals were made.
New Zealand
DAP imports reached just shy of 20,000t in January, sourced
almost entirely from China.
Daily DAP fob China USD/t
650

„ Around Yn3,400/t ex-works for 10-50 powdered MAP;

600

„ Around Yn5,200/t ex-works for TMAP

550

Run rates of phosphate plants are 50pc or below across hhhhhhhhhhh

the Hubei, Yunnan, and Guizhou regions. Run rates have not 500
risen much due to the ongoing export restrictions.
450
Malaysia
An importer bought an undisclosed amount of 15-45 Viet- 400
namese DAP at $580/t cfr Klang, for March shipment. Offers 23 Feb 23 26 Jun 23 23 Oct 23
of Chinese MAP are at $570-580/t cfr for March-April delivery
to Klang. But no deals were made.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

FEED PHOSPHATES TSP

China
Rising sulphuric acid prices and phosphate demand follow-
ing the end of the lunar new year holiday have pushed up
DCP prices. In the domestic market, MCP and DCP are now
at Yn3300-3400/t ex-works and Yn2200-2250/t ex-works,
respectively. MDCP is priced at Yn3050-3100/t ex-works.
In the export market, MCP indications softened $10/t at
the low end to $520-550/t fob. DCP and MDCP are priced at
around $390/t fob and $470/t fob, respectively.
SSP
Spain
SSP is priced at €190/t fca Aviles.
Brazil
A Chinese supplier sold around 10,000t of 20pc SSP to Bra-
zil at $205/t cfr for April loading. It is now offering at $210-
215/t cfr. Cfr prices may rise as freight rates for bulk vessels
go up following the Red Sea attacks and the higher cost of
sulphuric acid. Overall 20pc SSP is priced at $200-210/t cfr
with some reports Chinese is on offer as high as $220/t cfr.
A deal was also reported at $208/t cfr for Chinese product
shipping to Itaqui.
19pc SSP is generally priced at $195-200/t cfr with some
offers at $205/t cfr. This includes Chinese and Egyptian
product. Bids are below $190/t cfr with offers at $200/t cfr
minimum.
Brazil
TSP is priced at $415-430/t cfr. Chinese product is on offer
towards the higher end of this range. Moroccan is also on
offer.
UK
TSP is priced at £420-425/t bagged delivered.
France
Prices remain at €485/t fca Rouen. But activity is slow and
levels are more likely to soften than firm.
Kenya
Kenya's National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) will
likely buy from OCP warehouses under its tender that closed
on 16 February to buy 175,000t of various fertilizers which
included 15,000t of TSP.
Indonesia
An importer is getting offers for Chinese-origin TSP in the
low-mid $400s/t fob for shipment in March-April.
China
A supplier sold a small volume of 44pc TSP to Indonesia
at $380-385/fob for March Delivery. Suppliers are offering
around the mid-$400s/t fob for 46pc TSP, but no firm deals
have been agreed.

PHOSPHORIC ACID
Argus Phosphate Rock Analytics
Morocco Comprehensive forecast data and analysis
OCP is due to load phosphoric acid solution on the following
vessels at Jorf Lasfar:
Annual strategic report
Quarterly price forecasts 35+ 55+ 90+
„ NQ Morina - 11,025t, purified acid
Bi-annual data updates countries
represented
companies
networked
production
units

„ Chemroad Rose - 22,000t

For more information, visit:
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„ Chemroad Journey - 10,000t

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Argus Phosphates
PHOSPHATE ROCK
Egypt
Higher-grade rock prices are firm while there were softer
indications for lower-grade rock.
Prices for 30pc P2O5 Phosphate rock range $115-135/t fob
with Abu Tartour material shipped from Red Sea ports at
the low end and product from Red Sea mines shipped from
Damietta at the high end.
Abu Tartour 28pc P2O5 rock is in the $90s/t fob Red Sea
ports.
Phosphate rock containing 26pc P2O5 was indicated as low
as $54/t fob for shipment to Southeast Asia. Offers to China
were at $60/t fob but no new deals emerged.
A trading firm sold 5,000-6,000t of 26pc phosphate rock
for shipment to Turkey at $59/t fob.
China
No new sales for import emerged this week. Cargoes lined
up earlier this year are gradually beginning to arrive at
ports.
Rock prices are stable domestically. Indications for 28pc
P205 phosphate rock price range Yn980-1,020/t delivered to
Hubei.
Togo
The sale of Togolese 32pc P2O5 phosphate rock for discharge
in Vietnam and China by a trading firm emerged this week.
The cargo loaded in early January.
India
Fact has awarded its 7 February tender to buy 40,000t of
phosphate rock to trading firm Sun International. Fact and
Sun International concluded the deal at $217.45/t cfr with
0pc duty for 36pc P2O5 Togolese phosphate rock.
TLI Tradelink General Trading also offered Egyptian 32pc
P2O5 at $197/t cfr, excluding 2.75pc duty. OCP Morocco of-
fered 32pc P2O5 rock at $220/t cfr.
Offers from Agrifields and Indagro, both for Jordanian
rock, were disqualified.
The tender requested that the cargo arrive at Kochi port
on India's southwest coast from 1-30 March.
Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 11 of 13
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Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024
Indonesia/Malaysia
There were reports of a disparity in freight from the Red
Sea to Malaysia and to Indonesia. Indonesian importers are
facing much higher freight rates for importing rock, owing to
the lack of vessels.
Egyptian 26pc rock shipped in containers was quoted at
$95/t cfr Malaysia and $125/t cfr Indonesia. But some sup-
pliers said $95/t cfr is no longer possible in Malaysia and the
price there is also in the $120s/t cfr.
Ukraine
Full-year phosphate rock imports reached 95,000t in 2023,
with Egypt accounting for 85pc and Jordan the remainder.
This is down marginally on the 101,000t imported in 2022
and well below the 352,000t imported in 2021 mainly as
Syria shipped much less the following two years.
Turkey
A trading firm was in the freight market to ship 30,000-
35,000t of Algerian phosphate rock in bulk from Annaba to
Samsun, loading 23 February-3 March.
Tunisia
Tunisia targets more rock exports in 2024
CPG is targeting rock exports of 400,000-500,000t this year,
more than double those in 2023, the company has told
Argus.
Phosphate rock exports have been hit by political difficul-
ties since 2015, which have disrupted output, logistics and
hence exports.
But shipments have begun to recover, with 60,000t ex-
ported in 2022 and around 190,000t in 2023. Exports were
notional at 10,000-30,000 t/yr in 2015-21, GTT data show.
CPG is re-establishing its presence in key markets, mainly
Europe, Turkey and Latin America. In 2023, 53pc of its
exports — nearly 100,000t — went to Turkey, plus 18pc for
Peru, 12pc for Brazil and 16pc for Spain.
In late 2023, CPG and the World Bank's International Fi-
nance Corporation signed an agreement to finance, through
a donation of $2.2mn, the study of an integrated project
for pipeline transport of commercial phosphate. Should this
progress after the study, there is potential to raise rock
exports significantly.
That said, water supply and logistical issues remain, as
well as political tensions, which will have to be overcome to
allow a consistent notable rise in trade.
Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

LFP

China
Implied metal costs for cathode active materials (CAMs)
edged down slightly in the past week on exchange rate
adjustments, with prices for most inputs registering little
change over the period as Chinese market participants
gradually return from the lunar new year holiday.
Costs for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) CAMs saw the steep-
Argus Battery Materials
Over 130 price battery material prices, decades of
est decline, calculated at $12.54/kWh on 20 February, down historical data, forecasts for key battery metals
by 1.34pc from a week earlier. and chemicals

US Includes:
Lithium producer Albemarle lowered its long-term lithium
• Lithium, cobalt, nickel and
demand forecasts to reflect changes in end-user plans, de- other battery materials
spite higher sales.
• Cathodes
Albermarle lowered its 2030 demand forecast by 10pc to
(NCM 811, NCA, LFP)
3.3mn metric tonnes (t), as original equipment manufactur-
ers (OEMs) scale back investments. Albemarle also plans on • Downloadable analytics for
EVs, renewables and more
lithium demand increasing by 28pc year-over-year to 1.3mn t
in 2024. • Assessments for key
The Charlotte, North Carolina-based company provided inputs, e.g. sulphuric acid
three potential revenue outlooks for 2024 based on different
scenarios for lithium prices. At the lowest level of $15/kg of Download a sample and request a
lithium carbonate equivalent, Albemarle expects 2024 rev- trial of Argus Battery Materials
enues of $5.5bn-6.2bn, while at the highest price scenario of
$25/kg would lead to $6.9bn-7.6bn in revenue. view.argusmedia.com/BatteryMaterials
Under the lowest priced scenario, the energy storage divi-
sion is planning on revenues of $3.2bn-3.4bn, and $4.5-4.9bn
in revenue under the highest priced scenario.
Argus prices for minimum 99.5pc lithium carbonate cif
China fell to $13,000-14,000/t in the 9 February assessment
from its 2023 peak of $66,000-67,000/t on 3 January. Last
month, Albemarle said it would delay its $1.3bn lithium
conversion plant in South Carolina so that it could focus
resources on projects closer to completion amid declining
lithium prices.
Albemarle's 2023 sales rose to $9.6bn in 2023 from $7.3bn
in 2022, but overall profits fell to $1.7bn from $2.8bn, which
the company attributed to lower lithium prices.
The company posted a fourth quarter loss of $603mn,
compared to a profit of $1.2bn in the fourth quarter of 2022.

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Argus Phosphates Issue 24-8 | Thursday 22 February 2024

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