Republic of the Philippines

Department of Education
REGION XI
SCHOOLS DIVISION OF DAVAO DEL NORTE
ANIBONGAN NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL
Anibongan, Carmen, Davao del Norte

LESSON PLAN IN MATHEMATICS 11 (STATISTICS & PROBABILITY)

Date: April 4, 2024

Most Essential Learning Competency: illustrates: (a) null hypothesis; (b) alternative
hypothesis; (c) level of significance; (d) rejection region; and (e) types of errors in
hypothesis testing. (M11/12SP-IVa-1)

I. Objectives

At the end of this lesson, the learner should be able to

• understand and calculate probabilities for Type I and Type II errors in
hypothesis testing;
• appreciate the significance of Type I and Type II errors in decision-making
processes;
• apply knowledge of Type I and Type II errors to design and conduct
hypothesis tests effectively.

II. Subject Matter

Topic: Probabilities for Type I and Type II Errors

Reference:
Acelajado, Maxima J., Rene R. Belecina, and Basilia E. Blay. Mathematics for the
New Millennium. Makati: Diwa Scholastic Press, Inc. 1999.
Bluman, Allan G. Elementary Statistics: A Step By Step Approach. New York: The
McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.
Runyon, Richard P., Kay A. Coleman, and David J. Pittenger. Fundamentals of
Behavioral Statistics. USA: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.
Sagepub. “Introduction to Hypothesis Testing.” Accessed October 6, 2018.
https://www.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-binaries/40007_Chapter8.pdf

III. Learning Procedures

Preliminary Activities
a. Prayer (AVP)
b. Energizer
c. Greetings
d. Checking of classroom’s cleanliness and orderliness
e. Checking of attendance

Review: 5 minutes (Hypothesis Hero: The Probability Quest)

In your group get 1 yellow paper.

Instructions:
 1. Choose Your Hero: Decide which character you want to play as - the knight,
the wizard, or the scholar. Each character has unique abilities that may aid
you in different situations throughout the game.

Here are the unique abilities of each hero in the "Hypothesis Hero: The
Probability Quest" game:
The Brave Knight:
 Shield Bash: The Brave Knight can use his shield to block attacks from Error
Monsters, reducing damage taken.
 Charge: The Brave Knight can charge forward, breaking through obstacles
and reaching new areas more quickly.
 Courageous Resolve: The Brave Knight gains a temporary boost to his
confidence, allowing him to answer probability challenges with increased
accuracy.
The Cunning Wizard:
 Arcane Blast: The Cunning Wizard can unleash powerful blasts of arcane
energy to defeat Error Monsters from a distance.
 Teleport: The Cunning Wizard can teleport short distances, allowing him to
bypass obstacles and reach hidden areas.
 Analytical Insight: The Cunning Wizard's keen analytical skills grant him the
ability to analyze probability challenges more thoroughly, providing hints for
correct answers.
The Wise Scholar:
 Book of Knowledge: The Wise Scholar carries a book filled with knowledge on
hypothesis testing and probabilities, allowing him to access information and
hints during the quest.
 Researcher's Insight: The Wise Scholar's extensive research experience
grants him a deeper understanding of probability challenges, increasing his
chances of answering correctly.
 Meditation: The Wise Scholar can enter a state of deep meditation to focus
his mind and improve his concentration, aiding him in solving complex puzzles
and challenges.

2. Navigate the Quest: Move your character through the game world by selecting
different paths and making decisions at various points in the game. Pay
attention to clues and hints provided to progress through the quest
successfully.
3. Encounter Probability Challenges: Along your journey, you'll come across
probability challenges related to Type I and Type II errors. Read each
challenge carefully and select the best answer or course of action based on
your understanding of hypothesis testing.
4. Defeat the Error Monsters: Battle against fearsome Error Monsters
representing Type I and Type II errors. Use your hero's abilities strategically to
defeat them and continue on your quest. Be careful - incorrect answers may
lead to setbacks or obstacles in your path.
5. Reach the Probability Citadel: Your ultimate goal is to reach the Probability
Citadel, where you'll face the final challenge and prove yourself as a true
Hypothesis Hero. Answer the final question correctly to complete the game
and emerge victorious!

Questions:
1. You encounter a challenge related to Type I error. The scenario describes a
situation where the null hypothesis is true, but it is incorrectly rejected. What is the
consequence of committing a Type I error in hypothesis testing?
A) False positive
B) False negative
C) True positive
D) True negative

2. As you journey through the forest, you encounter a puzzle related to Type II error.
The scenario describes a situation where the null hypothesis is false, but it is
incorrectly retained. What is the consequence of committing a Type II error in
hypothesis testing?
A) False positive
B) False negative
C) True positive
D) True negative

3. You face an Error Monster representing Type I error. To defeat it, you must
correctly identify the definition of Type I error and its implications in hypothesis
testing. Choose the best answer from the options provided:
A) Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is incorrectly accepted.
B) Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is true but incorrectly rejected.
C) Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is false but incorrectly retained.
D) Type I error occurs when the alternative hypothesis is rejected when it is true.

4. Another Error Monster appears, this time representing Type II error. You must
correctly identify the definition of Type II error and its implications to defeat this
monster and continue on your quest. Select the most appropriate answer from the
choices given:
A) Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is incorrectly accepted.
B) Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is true but incorrectly rejected.
C) Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false but incorrectly retained.
D) Type II error occurs when the alternative hypothesis is rejected when it is true.

5. You've reached the final challenge at the Probability Citadel. Answer the question
related to probabilities for Type I and Type II errors correctly to emerge as the
ultimate Hypothesis Hero and complete your quest successfully! Which of the
following statements accurately describes the relationship between Type I and Type
II errors in hypothesis testing?
A) Type I and Type II errors are independent of each other.
B) Type I and Type II errors are inversely related - as one decreases, the other
increases.
C) Type I and Type II errors are directly related - as one increases, the other
increases.
D) Type I and Type II errors have no relationship; they depend solely on the specific
hypothesis being tested.

Answer Key:
1. A) False positive
2. B) False negative
3. B) Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is true but incorrectly rejected.
4. C) Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false but incorrectly retained.
5. B) Type I and Type II errors are inversely related - as one decreases, the other increases.

A. Activity
MISTAKES

Materials needed: pen and paper

Instructions:
1. This activity will be done individually.
2. Recall the problem in Warm Up! in the previous lesson.
3. Suppose we want to determine the possibility that Philip might not receive
treatment when he has dengue fever (type II error) with respect to the number of
doctors consulted. Listed in the table below are the chances of committing this error.
Convert them into percentage.

B. Analysis
1. How does this activity relate to the concept of type II error in hypothesis testing,
specifically in the context of Philip potentially not receiving treatment for dengue
fever?
2. What role does the chance of Philip not receiving treatment play in the decision-
making process regarding his healthcare, and how does it influence the potential
occurrence of type II error?
3. How do the different probabilities listed in the table reflect varying levels of risk
associated with committing a type II error based on the number of doctors
consulted?
4. What implications do these percentages have on the accuracy and reliability of the
decision-making process regarding Philip's treatment for dengue fever?
5. What strategies or considerations might individuals or healthcare professionals
employ to mitigate the risk of committing a type II error and ensure appropriate
treatment for Philip's condition?

C. Abstraction
In the previous lesson, we learned about the two types of error in hypothesis testing.
Generally, a higher sample size decreases the likelihood of committing a type II
error, but not type I error. Nevertheless, the decision to reject or not reject the null
hypothesis is made on the basis of probabilities.

The probability 𝛼 of committing a type I error is given by

𝛼 = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻𝑂𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐻𝑂 𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒).

The probability of a type I error is called the level of significance and is usually set by
the researcher. For example, if 𝛼 = 0.05, then there is a 5% probability that we will
reject the null hypothesis when it is true.

The probability 𝛽 of committing a type II error is given by

𝛽 = 𝑃(𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑒𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝐻𝑂 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐻𝑂 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑒).
The 𝑧 −score is used to find the corresponding tail area of the probability of
committing type I and type II errors.
x−μ
𝑧= σ
√n
where
x= sample mean;
𝜇 = population mean;
𝜎 = population standard deviation; and
𝑛 = sample size

Example 1:
A school administrator wants to test if the average score for the final exam is higher
than 70 with a standard deviation of 10 compared to the claim that it is at most 70. A
random sample of 35 students was taken from the examinees and it was found that
their mean score is greater than 73. What is the probability of committing a type I
error? What is the probability that the sample scored higher than the rest of the
students?

Solution:
Step 1: State the hypotheses.
𝐻𝑂: 𝜇 ≤ 70
𝐻𝐴: 𝜇 > 70
Step 2: Solve for the 𝑧 −score.
x−μ
𝑧= σ
√n
73−70
= 10
√35
=1.77
Step 3: Using the 𝑧 −table, find the area of the rejection region under the normal
curve.
𝛼 = 𝑃(𝑧 > 1.77)
= 1 − 0.9616
= 0.0384

The highlighted tail area is the rejection region.

Thus, the probability of committing a type I error is 0.0384. In other words, there is a
3.84% chance that the sample scored higher than the rest of the students.
D. Application
In your group answer this problem:

1. A pediatrician wants to test if the average weight of newborn babies is higher than
7 pounds with a standard deviation of 10 compared to the claim that it is at most 7. A
random sample of 40 newborn babies were weighed and it was found that their
mean weight is 10 pounds. What is the probability of committing a type I error?

IV. Assessment
In a yellow pad copy and answer the following questions:

1. A college student wants to test if the average cost of tuition at public colleges is
more than ₱5 750 against the claim that it is at most ₱5 750. She selects a random
sample of 36 public colleges and finds the mean to be ₱5 950 pesos. The population
standard deviation is ₱650. What is the probability of committing a type I error?

2. The manager of a fitness center believes that recent remodeling has greatly
improved the center’s appeal for members to stay longer per visit. It is known that
the mean time per visit prior to the remodeling was 36 minutes with a standard
deviation of 10 minutes. A random sample of 100 members was taken and it is found
that their mean time per visit is 34 minutes. What is the probability of committing a
type II error?

V. Agreement

Bring your notebook, calculator, paper, and pencils.

Prepared by:

MARY GRACE F. CAÑEDA

Pre-Service Teacher

Checked by:

RODELIO JR. D. BAIN

Teacher II