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Urban Climate Change
and Heat Islands
This page intentionally left blank
Urban Climate Change
and Heat Islands
Characterization, Impacts, and
Mitigation
Edited by
RICCARDO PAOLINI
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and
Architecture, University of New South Wales (UNSW),
Sydney, NSW, Australia
MATTHAIOS SANTAMOURIS
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and
Architecture, University of New South Wales (UNSW),
Sydney, NSW, Australia
Elsevier
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Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and
experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices,
or medical treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
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products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
ISBN: 978-0-12-818977-1
List of Contributors xi
2.1 Introduction 29
2.2 Measurement approaches in urban climatology 32
2.2.1 Networks of weather stations—continuous monitoring 32
2.2.2 Short-term terrestrial campaigns 46
2.2.3 Remote sensing 56
2.3 Climate and nonclimate data to support urban heat mitigation:
challenges and prospects 59
2.3.1 Measurement of advective flows and causes of urban
overheating 60
2.3.2 Measurement of parameters that influence the performance of
urban heat mitigation technologies 60
v
vi Contents
4.1 Introduction: why model urban and intra-urban climate change? 123
4.2 Modeling techniques to document urban and intraurban climate
variability and change 126
4.2.1 Scale models 126
4.2.2 Statistical methods 127
4.2.3 Numerical methods 127
4.2.4 Summary and review of modeling techniques 141
4.3 Modeling urban climate’s impact on human life 141
4.3.1 Urban climate and climate change interaction 144
4.3.2 Urban ventilation 146
4.3.3 Thermal environment and exposure in the built environment 148
4.4 Conclusions 151
References 152
Index 335
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List of contributors
Carlos Bartesaghi-Koc
School of Architecture and Built Environment, ECMS, The University of Adelaide,
Adelaide, SA, Australia
Jie Feng
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Kai Gao
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Samira Garshasbi
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Shamila Haddad
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Hassan Saeed Khan
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia; Data-61, The Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Kensington, Perth, WA,
Australia
Mathew Lipson
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extreme, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Negin Nazarian
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia; City Futures Research Centre,
University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia; ARC Centre of
Excellence for Climate Extreme, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Leslie K. Norford
Department of Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA,
United States
Riccardo Paolini
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Gianluca Ranzi
School of Civil Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
xi
xii List of contributors
Matthaios Santamouris
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Giulia Ulpiani
School of Built Environment, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, University of
New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
CHAPTER 1
1.1 Introduction
Cities increase their boundaries and population. While the urban popula-
tion in 1960 was close to 1 billion, reaching 3.33 billion in 2007, it grew
to 4.1 billion by 2017, representing almost 55% of the world population
(Ritchie & Roser, 2018). Future projections show that by 2050 urban
population may reach 7 billion people. An increase in the urban popula-
tion is associated with a spectacular growth of the size of megacities, cities
hosting more than 10 million population. While in 1990, only 10 cities
presented a total population above 10 million, the number increased to
28 million in 2014 and 33 million in 2017 (Young, 2019).
Apart from the urban population increase, the density of cities in the
developed world has surged to unprecedented levels. Cities like Mumbai
and Kolkata, India, and Karachi, Pakistan have tremendous population
densities around 77,000, 62,000, and 50,000 people per square mile,
respectively. Urban population densities have also increased in developed
countries without reaching the aforementioned density figures. For exam-
ple, population densities in Tokyo megacity, Japan and Athens, Greece,
are close to 12,300 and 14,000 people per square mile, respectively, while
the density in Sydney, Australia is not exceeding 1100 people per mile.
Such a tremendous increase of the absolute population figures and densi-
ties are a serious challenge affecting the local climate, use of resources,
disease control and health services, education and employment opportu-
nities, networks, infrastructures, and facilities. Poverty, unemployment,
and lack of proper shelters oblige almost 1 billion people to live in infor-
mal urban settlements or slums in completely unacceptable hygienic and
Figure 1.1 Current and future cooling degree days for the major areas of the planet
and for different climatic scenarios. (1) Baseline. (2) Increase between 0K and 1K. (3)
Increase between 1K and 2K. (4) Increase between 2K and 3K. (5) Increase between
3K and 4K, and 6K. (6) Increase between 4K and 5K (Santamouris, 2016a,b).
presents the predicted cooling degree days for the major parts of the
planet, considering an increase in the ambient temperature between 0 and
5 K (Santamouris, 2016a,b; Warren et al., 2006). As shown, for specific
regions like South-Eastern Asia, the expected increase of the cooling
degree days and cooling energy demand is extremely high.
Regional climate change depends highly on the socioeconomic path-
ways followed in developed and developing countries. Future economic
growth may define the levels of the future greenhouse emissions and thus
the need for adaptation and mitigation. Predictions of the future economic
growth and the world GDP depend on the specific assumptions of the
models and present a high uncertainty. Existing predictions for 2050 differ
substantially in terms of the predicted average GDP per capita. Fig. 1.2 pre-
sents the results of 19 published models (Santamouris, 2016a,b). As shown,
the average GDP per capita may vary between 7200 and 26,400 US$ of
1990. However, a common denominator of all scenarios is the serious
amplification of the economic differences between the various geographic
parts of the world (Fig. 1.3). The used GDP prediction data are taken from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology emission scenario (MIT, 2021).
4 Urban Climate Change and Heat Islands
30000
GDP/capita (US$ 1990)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
IP C
B1
1
IP 3
IP 1
5
FI
A2
IP A1
P
2
IT
T
B2
B
A2
IP 1B
CD
CD
CD
CD
A
CD
A1
A1
SA
M
SA
CC
CC
AS
CC
CC
A
CC
OE
CC
OE
OE
OE
OE
IIA
CC
IIA
CC
CC
IA
IP
IP
IP
IP
Figure 1.2 Predicted global GDP per capita in 2050 by the various emission scenar-
ios (in US$ 1990). From Santamouris, M., 2016a. Cooling the buildings past, present
and future. Energy and Buildings, 128, 617638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
enbuild.2016.07.034. Santamouris, M., 2016b. Innovating to zero the building sector in
Europe: mminimising the energy consumption, eradication of the energy poverty and
mitigating the local climate change. Solar Energy, 128, 6194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
solener.2016.01.021.
Predictions have shown that the GDP in the less developing countries may
be almost 85% lower than that of the developed ones. Given that most of
the future megacities are located in the developing countries, where most of
the future urban population is expected, low economic development will
affect the quality of the cities, their infrastructure, the energy consumption,
and the related environmental policies and very probably will result in a seri-
ous increase of the urban overheating.
Overpopulation and economic growth drive the future development
of residential and commercial buildings. While in 2010, the total floor
area of residential buildings in the world varied between 140 billion
square meters and 190 billion square meters (Global Energy Assessment
Writing Team, 2012; Urge-Vorsatz et al., 2013), it is expected to increase
up to 180290 billion square meters by 2030 and 190 2 379 billion
square meters by 2050. In parallel, the total area of the commercial build-
ings is expected to rise by 2050 between 25 billion square meters and
30 billion square meters compared to 2124 billion square meters in
Urban climate change: reasons, magnitude, impact, and mitigation 5
100000
GDP per Capita, (2010 $)
USA
80000
60000 Europe
40000
20000
World
China
Figure 1.3 Predicted growth of the GDP per capita between 2010 and 2050 for all
major areas of the world (in US$ 2010). Each boxplot comprises all data from all
major zones of the world. From Santamouris, M., 2016a. Cooling the buildings past,
present and future. Energy and Buildings, 128, 617638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
enbuild.2016.07.034. Santamouris, M., 2016b. Innovating to zero the building sector in
Europe: mminimising the energy consumption, eradication of the energy poverty and
mitigating the local climate change. Solar Energy, 128, 6194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
solener.2016.01.021.
5000
Predicted Cooling Energy Consumption of the Residential Sector (TWh)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
ASIA EUR AMER AFR
1500
1000
ASIA EUR AMER AFR
500
0
SUBSAH AFR
INDIA
CHINA
REST ASIA
EU27A
EU27B
EU27C
EU27 D
AMER
AFRICA
INDIA
CHINA
REST ASIA
EU27 A
EU27 B
EU27 C
EU27 D
AMERICA
AFRICA
INDIA A
INDIA B
INDONESIA A
INDONESIA B
CPASIA A
CPASIA B
MDLEAST A
MDLEAST B
OECD PAC A
OECD PAC B
EU27 A
EU27 B
EU27 C
EU27 D
USA A
USA B
BRAZIL
MEX
LATAMER
N. AFRICA
EUROPE
USA A
USA B
USA C
EUROPE
USA
Figure 1.4 Predicted future residential cooling energy consumption by the various exist-
ing models. The blue zone (left part of the figure) is for 2030, the green (middle part of
the figure) for 2050, and the red (right part), for 2100. From Santamouris, M., 2016a.
Cooling the buildings past, present and future. Energy and Buildings, 128, 617638.
Santamouris, M., 2016b. Innovating to zero the building sector in Europe: mminimising
the energy consumption, eradication of the energy poverty and mitigating the local cli-
mate change. Solar Energy, 128, 6194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2016.01.021.
several models (McNeil & Letschert, 2008; Scott et al., 2008). As shown,
a very substantial increase in cooling energy consumption is foreseen for
the next 20 2 30 years. It is important that the highest energy consump-
tion is expected in Asiatic countries and in particular in China and India,
where the most serious urban problems are expected.
Global climate change, an increase in the urban population, higher
urban densities, a significant increase in the number of buildings, and the
expected tremendous energy consumption of the building sector are fac-
tors that may seriously intensify the magnitude of urban overheating.
Higher urban temperatures have a serious impact on the energy con-
sumption of buildings, indoor and outdoor thermal comfort, the concen-
tration of harmful pollutants, heat-related mortality and morbidity,
Urban climate change: reasons, magnitude, impact, and mitigation 7
92°
Late Afternoon Temperatures (°F)
85°
Figure 1.5 Sketch of a typical heat island urban profile. From Taha, H., Akbari, H.,
Sailor, D., Ritschard, R., 1992. Causes and effects of heat islands: sensitivity to surface
parameters and anthropogenic heating.
increasing their temperature, and it is released into the atmosphere in the form
of convective heat and infrared radiation. In parallel, materials absorb infrared
radiation emitted by the atmosphere and the other surfaces in the built envi-
ronment. Convective losses or gains between the urban surfaces and the ambi-
ent air depend mainly on the corresponding temperature difference and the
wind speed and turbulence. Anthropogenic heat added to the atmosphere as
released by cars, industry, power plants, and the energy systems of buildings
increases the energy fluxes in the built environment. Heat transfer by advection
in cities affects in a positive or negative way the energy budget as a function of
the temperature difference between the ambient and the advected air. Finally,
latent heat released through the evaporation of water by urban vegetation and
water surfaces helps to decrease the ambient temperature.
Thus the energy balance of the surfaceambient air system can be
written as:
Qr 1 QT 5 QE 1 QL 1 QS 1 QA
Urban climate change: reasons, magnitude, impact, and mitigation 9
where Qr is the sum of the net radiative flux, QT is the released anthro-
pogenic heat, QE is the sum of the sensible heat, QL is the latent heat, Qs
is the stored energy, while QA is the net energy transferred to or from the
urban system through advection under the form of sensible or latent heat.
The advective term can be ignored in central urban areas surrounded by
an almost uniform building density. Still, it may be imported into the
boundaries between the urban and the rural environment.
Usually, the absorbed solar radiation is the term presenting the highest
magnitude, and that contributes more to increase the urban temperature.
Thus a decrease in the solar absorbance or increase of the solar reflectance
of the urban surfaces is crucial to minimize the release of the sensible heat
to the atmosphere and decrease the ambient temperature. The infrared
radiation emitted by the urban structures contributes highly to lower the
ambient temperature, especially during the nighttime. The emissive capac-
ity, that is, the emissivity of the urban materials and structures, highly
determines the magnitude of the emitted radiation. However, as the spec-
tral emissivity is equal to the spectral absorptivity of the materials, high
emissivity values may result in increased absorption of the emitted atmo-
spheric radiation. Especially in urban zones with a high content of water
vapor or atmospheric pollution, the magnitude of the incoming atmo-
spheric radiation may be quite high. Materials presenting a high spectral
emissivity in the so-called atmospheric window, that is, between 8 and
13 micrometers, present an additional advantage as the atmospheric radia-
tion at these wavelengths is minimum. Latent heat released by urban veg-
etation and water surfaces is considerably reduced in cities compared to
the rural areas as a result of the limited green and water zones. An increase
of the evapotranspirational flux contributes considerably to decrease the
ambient temperature and rise the water content in the atmosphere.
Advection gains or losses can be a determinant of heat flux in cities. In
coastal zones, the impact of sea breeze helps to reduce the levels of the
ambient temperature considerably and fight overheating, especially during
the afternoon hours. In parallel, urban zones located close to hot and arid
zones like the desert or other heat sources, like power plants or large pho-
tovoltaic plants, may have a very negative impact as hot or warm air may
be transferred to the city.
Anthropogenic heat released in the urban ambient air varies as a func-
tion of the specific characteristics of the city and the relative anthropo-
genic activities like transport, industry, energy systems of the buildings,
etc. Although the average anthropogenic heat flux is small compared to
10 Urban Climate Change and Heat Islands
the summertime mid-day solar radiation, waste heat from urban anthro-
pogenic activities may play an important role in the formation and magni-
tude of the heat island phenomenon. Many experimental and modeling
studies have documented that waste heat, mainly from urban energy,
transportation systems, and power generation, contributes to increased
heat island intensities (Khan & Simpson, 2001; Sailor & Lu, 2004). A
methodology to estimate the magnitude of the anthropogenic heat gener-
ated in cities is proposed in Sailor and Lu (2004).
Many studies have been performed to calculate the anthropogenic
heat flux in urban areas, and a value close to 100 W/m2 is suggested as an
average (Grimmond, 1992; Kłysik, 1996). However, much higher values
have been reported for various cities. In the past, it was estimated that the
anthropogenic heat in downtown Manhattan was close to 198 W/m2
(Coutts et al., 2007), while the maximum flux in central London was
close to 234 W/m2, with an average value close to 100 W/m2 (Harrison
et al., 1984). An analysis of the anthropogenic heat released in US cities
reports an average flux between 20 and 40 W/m2 for the summer and
between 70 and 210 W/m2 for the winter period, considering the upper
value as an extreme (Hosler & Landsberg, 1997). In Moscow, Budapest,
Reykjavik, and Berlin, the average anthropogenic heat flux is estimated
close to 127, 43, 35, and 21 W/m2, respectively, while for Montreal and
Vancouver, it is 99 and 26 W/m2 (Steinecke, 1999; Taha et al., 1992).
More recent studies show that the anthropogenic heat flux in the urban
area in Tokyo exceeds 400 W/m2 in the daytime, while the maximum
value is close to 1590 W/m2 in winter (Ichinose et al., 1999). Another
analysis of the anthropogenic heat distribution for central Beijing shows
that at 0800 a.m. local time, it ranges between 40 and 220 W/m2 in sum-
mer and 60 to W/m2 in winter (Chen et al., 2007). Finally, estimations
for Toulouse, France, showed that anthropogenic heat flows are around
15 W/m2 during summer and 70 W/m2 during the winter with peaks of
120 W/m2 (Pigeon et al., 2007).
Anthropogenic heat can be an important contributor to the thermal
environments of cities. Numerical simulations of the urban temperature
regime have shown that anthropogenic heat may increase urban tempera-
tures by up to 3°C (Narumi et al., 2003). Using a mesoscale model calcu-
lated that the addition of anthropogenic heat in Osaka increases the urban
temperature to about 1°C. Detailed simulations for the Tokyo area,
reported in Kondo and Kikegawa (2003), show that anthropogenic heat-
ing in the Otemachi area resulted in a temperature increase of about 1°C.
Urban climate change: reasons, magnitude, impact, and mitigation 11
Figure 1.6 Reported intensity of the annual average urban heat island for studies
based on standard measuring equipment. From Santamouris, M., 2015. Analyzing the
heat island magnitude and characteristics in one hundred Asian and Australian cities
and regions. Science of the Total Environment, 512513, 582598. https://doi.org/
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.060.
Urban climate change: reasons, magnitude, impact, and mitigation 13
Figure 1.7 Reported intensity of the maxmax urban heat island for studies based
on standard measuring equipment. From Santamouris, M., 2015. Analyzing the heat
island magnitude and characteristics in one hundred Asian and Australian cities and
regions. Science of the Total Environment, 512513, 582598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
scitotenv.2015.01.060.
Analysis of 18 studies comparing the heating and cooling needs of reference buildings
temperature increase and per person (Fig. 1.9). Higher ambient tempera-
tures affect the efficiency and the generation capacity of the nuclear and
thermal power plants, increases the power losses between substations and
transformers, and decreases the carrying capacity of the electricity trans-
mission lines (Chandramowli & Felder, 2014; Dirks et al., 2015). Fig. 1.10
reports the main impact of urban overheating on the power production
systems.
An increase in the ambient temperature in cities affects the quality of
life seriously as well as the health of low-income households and raises the
levels of urban vulnerability (Santamouris & Kolokotsa, 2015). The vul-
nerable urban population used to live in low-quality houses in deprived
urban zones, and a possible increase of the ambient temperature seriously
affects indoor temperature, indoor pollution, and survivability levels
(Kolokotsa & Santamouris, 2015; Smoyer, 1998). Fig. 1.11 reports the
main impact of urban overheating on low-income and vulnerable
population.
Urban overheating increases considerably the concentration of several
harmful pollutants like the ground-level ozone and particulate matter (Lai
& Cheng, 2009). Higher ambient temperatures accelerate the
ADDITIONAL INVESTMENTS
Increased ambient temperatures and extreme
phenomena, may cause 14-23 % additional
investments on electricity capacity in USA,
relative to a non – climate change scenario for the
years between 2010 and 2055
4
DECREASE OF THE TRANSMISSION
CAPACITY
Rise of the ambient temperature by 2040-2060
Ways may decrease the mean summertime
Overheading transmission capacity in the USA by 1.9%–
Affects the electricity 5.8% relative to the 1990–2010 period,
generation systems