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Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at

Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Prepared By

Md. Sajidul Hossain

Prepared For

Symbiotic Architects and Associates

September 14, 2022


Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Table of Contents
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 2
2. Cargo Vessel Traffic Trend Analysis ................................................................................................ 5
3. Projection of Cargo Vessel Traffic up to 2050................................................................................ 16
4. Road Traffic Data ............................................................................................................................. 20
5. Road Traffic Flow ............................................................................................................................. 32

List of Figures
Figure-1: Proposed Planview of Chittagong Bay Terminal Project Area ........................................... 3
Figure-2: Proposed Location for Traffic Flow Projection ...................................................................... 4

1|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection


at Chittagong Port

1. Introduction
Chittagong Port wants to construct new facility at Ananda Bazar, North Halishohor to
provide a major gateway for the country's trade with the outside world. It includes
construction of breakwater for about 11km, dredging construction of a multi-purpose
terminal and two container terminals. The Chittagong Bay Terminal Project Area
encompasses approximately 6 kilometers of the Bay of Bengal shoreline as shown in the
Figure 1-1.

Symbiotic Architects & Associates is one of the Joint Venture partners of the Chittagong
Bay Terminal Project. Symbiotic Architects & Associates wishes to have Cargo Traffic
Projection at Chittagong Port up to the year 2050.

Symbiotic Architects & Associates also wishes to have a road traffic volume calculation
and projection of road traffic flow up to the year 2050. The Highway roadmap for traffic
volume calculation is shown in Figure 1-2.

2|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Figure-1: Proposed Planview of Chittagong Bay Terminal Project Area

3|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Figure-2: Proposed Location for Traffic Flow Projection

4|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

2. Cargo Vessel Traffic Trend Analysis


Chittagong Port Authority has provided the Cargo, Container and Vessel handling at Chittagong
Port from the year 2000 to 2021.
Table 1.1 Cargo, Container and Vessel handling at Chittagong Port (2000--2021)
C/Year Cargo Container Vessel
(in M/tons) (in TEU's) Cont. Bulk Total

2000 18096963 456007 512 950 1462


2001 19692062 486289 571 1060 1631
2002 21483820 526353 620 982 1602
2003 24084332 624560 659 1061 1720
2004 24645774 688771 691 1073 1764
2005 29568425 783353 744 1148 1892
2006 30139657 876186 851 1106 1957
2007 30799388 958020 946 999 1945
2008 31315677 1069999 962 1137 2099
2009 38169124 1161470 947 1220 2167
2010 45396663 1343448 890 1359 2249
2011 49273937 1392104 938 1310 2248
2012 48604756 1406456 845 1231 2076
2013 50582574 1541517 947 1209 2156
2014 56835941 1731219 1047 1363 2410
2015 65964929 2024207 1193 1516 2709
2016 77255731 2421880 1270 1744 3014
2017 85246948 2667223 1454 1916 3370
2018 96311224 2903996 1519 2228 3747
2019 103077736 3088187 1519 2288 3807
2020 103209724 2839977 1378 2350 3728
2021 116619158 3214548 1571 2638 4209
2022 61397482 1632529 1367 793 2160
(Up to June)

5|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

In order to determine the future Cargo, Container and Vessel traffic at Chittagong Port, different
indicators have been taken into consideration. The first order regression analysis has been done
for different trend analysis.
There are mainly five types of trendlines:
a. Exponential
b. Linear
c. Logarithmic
d. Power
e. Polynomial

Cargo M/Tons Vs. Year

Cargo M/Tons Vs. Year (exponential)


140000000

120000000
y = 1E-71e0.0899x
R² = 0.9882
100000000

80000000

60000000

40000000

20000000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

6|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Cargo M/Tons Vs. Year (Linear)


140000000

120000000

100000000 y = 5E+06x - 9E+09


R² = 0.917

80000000

60000000

40000000

20000000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Cargo M/Tons Vs. Year (Logerithmic)


140000000

120000000

100000000 y = 9E+09ln(x) - 7E+10


R² = 0.9162
80000000

60000000

40000000

20000000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

7|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Cargo M/Tons Vs. Year (Polynomial)


140000000

120000000
y = 225664x2 - 9E+08x + 9E+11
R² = 0.9888
100000000

80000000

60000000

40000000

20000000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Container TEU Vs. Year

Container TEU Vs. Year (exponential)


4000000

3500000 y = 3E-79e0.097x
R² = 0.9718
3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

8|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Container TEU Vs. Year (Linear)


3500000

3000000
y = 137223x - 3E+08
R² = 0.9401
2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Container TEU Vs. Year (Logerithmic)


3500000

3000000
y = 3E+08ln(x) - 2E+09
R² = 0.9396
2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

9|Page
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Container TEU Vs. Year (Polynomial)


4000000

3500000
y = 4973.6x2 - 2E+07x + 2E+10
3000000 R² = 0.9797

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Container Vessel Vs Year

Container Vessel Vs Year (exponential)


1800

1600 y = 1E-40e0.0491x
R² = 0.9211
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

10 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Container Vessel Vs Year (Linear)


1800

1600
y = 47.946x - 95392
1400 R² = 0.908

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Container Vessel Vs Year (Logerithmic)


1800

1600
y = 96379ln(x) - 732065
1400 R² = 0.9077

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

11 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Container Vessel Vs Year (Polynomial)


1800

1600
y = 0.9846x2 - 3911.2x + 4E+06
R² = 0.9202
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Bulk Vessel Vs. Year

Bulk Vessel Vs. Year (exponential)


3000

2500
y = 8E-37e0.0449x
R² = 0.8735
2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

12 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Bulk Vessel Vs. Year (Linear)


3000

2500
y = 69.883x - 139049
2000 R² = 0.7925

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Bulk Vessel Vs. Year (Logerithmic)


3000

2500
y = 140409ln(x) - 1E+06
R² = 0.7915
2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Bulk Vessel Vs. Year (Polynomial)


3000
y = 5.5669x2 - 22315x + 2E+07
2500 R² = 0.9534

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

13 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Total Vessel Vs. Year

Total Vessel Vs. Year (exponential)


4500

4000
y = 6E-38e0.0465x
R² = 0.9263
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Total Vessel Vs. Year (Linear)


4500

4000
y = 117.83x - 234441
3500 R² = 0.8674

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

14 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Total Vessel Vs. Year (Logerithmic)


4500

4000
y = 236787ln(x) - 2E+06
3500 R² = 0.8666

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Total Vessel Vs. Year (Polynomial)


4500
y = 6.5515x2 - 26226x + 3E+07
4000 R² = 0.9532

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

15 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

3. Projection of Cargo Vessel Traffic up to 2050


In this case, linear trendline has been used.
Using data from 2012 to 2021, following trendlines and regression has been observed:

Cargo M/Tons/10^5 Vs. Year


1400

y = 79.44x - 159387
1200
R² = 0.983

1000

800

600

400

200

0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Figure-2: Trendline for Cargo (in M/Tons)

Container TEU/1000 Vs. Year


4000

3500
y = 214.26x - 429629
R² = 0.9335
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Figure-3: Trendline for Cargo (in M/Tons)

16 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Container Vessel Vs Year


1800
y = 79.23x - 158494
1600
R² = 0.8624
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Figure-4: Trendline for Container (Total)

Bulk Vessel Vs. Year


1800
1600 y = 79.23x - 158494
R² = 0.8624
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Figure-5: Trendline for Bulkhead

From these trendlines, projection has been made up to 2050.

17 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Table 2.1 Cargo, Container and Vessel handling at Chittagong Port (Projection up to 2050
from 2000)
C/Year Cargo Container Vessel
(in M/tons) (in TEU's) Cont. Bulk Total

2000 18096963 456007 512 950 1462


2001 19692062 486289 571 1060 1631
2002 21483820 526353 620 982 1602
2003 24084332 624560 659 1061 1720
2004 24645774 688771 691 1073 1764
2005 29568425 783353 744 1148 1892
2006 30139657 876186 851 1106 1957
2007 30799388 958020 946 999 1945
2008 31315677 1069999 962 1137 2099
2009 38169124 1161470 947 1220 2167
2010 45396663 1343448 890 1359 2249
2011 49273937 1392104 938 1310 2248
2012 48604756 1406456 845 1231 2076
2013 50582574 1541517 947 1209 2156
2014 56835941 1731219 1047 1363 2410
2015 65964929 2024207 1193 1516 2709
2016 77255731 2421880 1270 1744 3014
2017 85246948 2667223 1454 1916 3370
2018 96311224 2903996 1519 2228 3747
2019 103077736 3088187 1519 2288 3807
2020 103209724 2839977 1378 2350 3728
2021 116619158 3214548 1571 2638 4209
2022 61397482 1632529 1367 793 2160
(Up to June)
2022 124068000 3604720 1709 2772 4481
2023 132012000 3818980 1788 2939 4727
2024 139956000 4033240 1868 3106 4974
2025 147900000 4247500 1947 3273 5220
2026 155844000 4461760 2026 3440 5466
2027 163788000 4676020 2105 3608 5713
2028 171732000 4890280 2184 3775 5959
2029 179676000 5104540 2264 3942 6206
2030 187620000 5318800 2343 4109 6452
2031 195564000 5533060 2422 4276 6698
2032 203508000 5747320 2501 4443 6945
2033 211452000 5961580 2581 4611 7191

18 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

2034 219396000 6175840 2660 4778 7438


2035 227340000 6390100 2739 4945 7684
2036 235284000 6604360 2818 5112 7930
2037 243228000 6818620 2898 5279 8177
2038 251172000 7032880 2977 5446 8423
2039 259116000 7247140 3056 5614 8670
2040 267060000 7461400 3135 5781 8916
2041 275004000 7675660 3214 5948 9162
2042 282948000 7889920 3294 6115 9409
2043 290892000 8104180 3373 6282 9655
2044 298836000 8318440 3452 6449 9902
2045 306780000 8532700 3531 6617 10148
2046 314724000 8746960 3611 6784 10394
2047 322668000 8961220 3690 6951 10641
2048 330612000 9175480 3769 7118 10887
2049 338556000 9389740 3848 7285 11134
2050 346500000 9604000 3928 7453 11380

19 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

4. Road Traffic Data

Date: 17.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 12 pm – 2 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus
Medium/ Mini Bus 6
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 10
Microbus 100
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 75
Purpose CNG 85
Motorcycle 70
Heavy Truck 95
Truck Medium Truck 88
Small Truck 43

Date: 17.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 2 pm – 4 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus 5
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 2
Microbus 95
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 30
Purpose CNG 85
Motorcycle 55
Heavy Truck 160
Truck Medium Truck 66
Small Truck 40

20 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 17.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 4 pm – 5 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 1
Medium/ Mini Bus 1
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike
Microbus 105
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 11
Purpose CNG 45
Motorcycle 30
Heavy Truck 100
Truck Medium Truck 40
Small Truck 20

Date: 18.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 10 am – 1 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike
Microbus 105
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 25
Purpose CNG 76
Motorcycle 63
Heavy Truck 200
Truck Medium Truck 88
Small Truck 40

21 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 18.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 2 pm – 4 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 2
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 1
Microbus 110
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 20
Purpose CNG 80
Motorcycle 60
Heavy Truck 150
Truck Medium Truck 74
Small Truck 20

Date: 18.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 4 pm – 5 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus 1
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 2
Microbus 80
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 10
Purpose CNG 70
Motorcycle 56
Heavy Truck 81
Truck Medium Truck 45
Small Truck 20

22 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 19.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 10 am – 11 am


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus 7
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 3
Microbus 65
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 13
Purpose CNG 77
Motorcycle 63
Heavy Truck 75
Truck Medium Truck 28
Small Truck 15

Date: 19.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 11 am – 12 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 1
Medium/ Mini Bus
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 5
Microbus 75
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 15
Purpose CNG 80
Motorcycle 40
Heavy Truck 90
Truck Medium Truck 40
Small Truck 20

23 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 19.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 12 pm – 1 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus 1
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 6
Microbus 73
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 20
Purpose CNG 73
Motorcycle 75
Heavy Truck 91
Truck Medium Truck 33
Small Truck 17

Date: 19.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 3 pm – 4 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus
Medium/ Mini Bus
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike
Microbus 48
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 10
Purpose CNG 62
Motorcycle 50
Heavy Truck 70
Truck Medium Truck 35
Small Truck 15

24 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 19.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 4 pm – 5 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 1
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 5
Microbus 67
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 6
Purpose CNG 70
Motorcycle 55
Heavy Truck 73
Truck Medium Truck 25
Small Truck 11

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 10 am – 11 am


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 7
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 35
Microbus 24
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 25
Purpose CNG 97
Motorcycle 35
Heavy Truck 12
Truck Medium Truck 15
Small Truck 20

25 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 11 am – 12 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus 8
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 15
Microbus 10
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 10
Purpose CNG 88
Motorcycle 45
Heavy Truck 9
Truck Medium Truck 7
Small Truck 13

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 12 pm – 1 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 7
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 30
Microbus 15
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 25
Purpose CNG 103
Motorcycle 55
Heavy Truck 3
Truck Medium Truck 21
Small Truck 17

26 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 2 pm – 3 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 8
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 23
Microbus 25
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 19
Purpose CNG 78
Motorcycle 42
Heavy Truck 4
Truck Medium Truck 15
Small Truck 25

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 3 pm – 4 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 1
Medium/ Mini Bus 7
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 34
Microbus 45
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 35
Purpose CNG 84
Motorcycle 50
Heavy Truck 5
Truck Medium Truck 25
Small Truck 20

27 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: South-North Time: 4 pm – 5 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 8
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 25
Microbus 50
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 40
Purpose CNG 85
Motorcycle 54
Heavy Truck 3
Truck Medium Truck 17
Small Truck 24

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 11 am – 12 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 2
Medium/ Mini Bus 4
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 22
Microbus 30
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 14
Purpose CNG 88
Motorcycle 35
Heavy Truck 8
Truck Medium Truck 19
Small Truck 30

28 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 12 pm – 1 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 3
Medium/ Mini Bus 7
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 25
Microbus 30
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 16
Purpose CNG 76
Motorcycle 45
Heavy Truck 6
Truck Medium Truck 12
Small Truck 17

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 2 pm – 3 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 1
Medium/ Mini Bus 2
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 30
Microbus 26
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 15
Purpose CNG 120
Motorcycle 56
Heavy Truck 2
Truck Medium Truck 2
Small Truck 2

29 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 3 pm – 4 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus
Medium/ Mini Bus 2
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 8
Microbus 20
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 18
Purpose CNG 85
Motorcycle 45
Heavy Truck 9
Truck Medium Truck 18
Small Truck 20

Date: 20.08.2022 Direction: North-South Time: 4 pm – 5 pm


Major Category Sub Category Count

Large Bus 1
Medium/ Mini Bus 4
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 30
Microbus 41
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 28
Purpose CNG 90
Motorcycle 55
Heavy Truck 17
Truck Medium Truck 23
Small Truck 29

30 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Total
Direction: North-South
Major Category Sub Category Hours Total Count
Large Bus 11 14
Medium/ Mini Bus 11 22
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 11 118
Microbus 11 442
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 11 146
Purpose CNG 11 685
Motorcycle 11 415
Heavy Truck 11 473
Truck Medium Truck 11 281
Small Truck 11 178

Total
Direction: South-North
Major Category Sub Category Hours Total Count
Large Bus 16 26
Medium/ Mini Bus 16 66
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 16 193
Microbus 16 797
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 16 334
Purpose CNG 16 1112
Motorcycle 16 719
Heavy Truck 16 790
Truck Medium Truck 16 455
Small Truck 16 300

31 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

5. Road Traffic Flow


There are two types of traffic parameters: annual average daily traffic (AADT) and ESAL.
The AADT is used for calculating the users' cost while the ESAL is used for evaluating
pavement performance. It is hard to make a precise prediction on both parameters. The
traffic grow rate, which is a key role in traffic prediction, needs to be determined based on
the economic growth, transportation development, transportation situation, roadway, and
traffic conditions, etc. The traffic composition should be estimated based on the local
survey or on traffic composition on nearby roadways.

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT): Traffic data on all traffic volume maps is
represented as AADT, a theoretical estimate of the total number of vehicles using a
specific segment of roadway (in both directions) on any given day of the year.

AADT estimates are subject to many sources of variability. Therefore, it is suggested that
historical AADT’s be referenced in addition to the most currently available information.
Construction effects are unavoidable when collecting traffic data. If possible, traffic counts
are scheduled before a project starts or after it is completed. It is important to remember
that construction affects traffic patterns on the entire road network, another reason why it
is valuable to reference historical traffic volumes.

AADT is defined as the average 24-hour traffic volume at a given location over a full 365
days/year.

32 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

AADT Calculation
Direction: North-South
Major Category Sub Category AADT
Large Bus 31
Medium/ Mini Bus 48
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 257
Microbus 964
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 319
Purpose CNG 1495
Motorcycle 905
Heavy Truck 1032
Truck Medium Truck 613
Small Truck 388

AADT Calculation
Direction: South-North
Major Category Sub Category AADT
Large Bus 39
Medium/ Mini Bus 99
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 290
Microbus 1196
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 501
Purpose CNG 1668
Motorcycle 1079
Heavy Truck 1185
Truck Medium Truck 683
Small Truck 450

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Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE): Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE) is a unit used to
represent the impact of a large vehicle on a road by expressing it as the number of
equivalent passenger vehicles. This paper focuses on estimating the PCE of various
sized heavy vehicles in roundabouts with respect to different entry flow rates. A single-
lane roundabout was tested under predefined mixed traffic and demand scenarios in
VISSIM micro-simulation environments. The individual and group behavior of four
separate heavy-vehicle types were tested: single-unit trucks, buses, small semitrailers,
and large semitrailers. The obtained PCE values were found to be on average lower than
those suggested in the United States guidelines for roundabouts. The estimated PCE
values for heavy vehicles in mixed traffic conditions are 1.30 for single unit trucks, 1.40
for small semitrailers, 1.60 for buses, and 1.70 for large semitrailers. Additional factors
such as varying inflow (balanced, unbalanced, and congested traffic) show direct
influences on the PCE values. The PCE value under these conditions ranged from 1.25
to 1.75 for smaller vehicles (single-unit trucks, buses, and small semitrailers) and 1.45–
2.10 for larger heavy vehicles (large semitrailers). A general equation was developed
based on the data to relate vehicle proportions and heavy-vehicle reduction factors that
would be useful for professionals to analyze the operational performance of roundabouts
with better accuracy.

34 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

PASSENGER CAR EQUIVALENT (PCE)


Direction: North-South
PCE Count in PCE
Major Category Sub Category Factor
Large Bus 3.00 93
Medium/ Mini Bus 2.25 108
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 2.25 578
Microbus 2.25 2169
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 1.00 319
Purpose CNG 0.75 1121
Motorcycle 0.75 679
Heavy Truck 3.00 3096
Truck Medium Truck 2.25 1379
Small Truck 1.00 388
Total 9,930

PASSENGER CAR EQUIVALENT (PCE)


Direction: South-North
PCE Count in PCE
Major Category Sub Category Factor
Large Bus 3.00 117
Medium/ Mini Bus 2.25 223
Public Transit
Maxi/Tempo/Easy Bike 2.25 653
Microbus 2.25 2691
Jeep/Pick
Vehicle Used for Private Up/SUV/Passenger Car 1.00 501
Purpose CNG 0.75 1251
Motorcycle 0.75 809
Heavy Truck 3.00 3555
Truck Medium Truck 2.25 1537
Small Truck 1.00 450
Total 11,787

35 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Therefore,

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) [From North to South] = 9,930

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) [From South to North] = 11,787

Traffic Flow [From North to South] = 414 passenger cars/hr

Traffic Flow [From South-North] = 492 passenger cars/hr

Projection on Traffic Flow:

Considering linear relation between cargo vessel traffic and road traffic, the following
projection is made for traffic flow up to the year 2050.

Traffic Flow [From North to South] (Projection up to 2050)

Passenger Passenger
Year Cars/Hr Year Cars/Hr
2022 414 2037 4024
2023 572 2038 4270
2024 819 2039 4517
2025 1065 2040 4763
2026 1312 2041 5010
2027 1558 2042 5256
2028 1805 2043 5503
2029 2051 2044 5749
2030 2298 2045 5996
2031 2544 2046 6242
2032 2791 2047 6489
2033 3037 2048 6881
2034 3284 2049 7221
2035 3531 2050 7530

36 | P a g e
Cargo Vessel and Road Traffic Projection at Chittagong Port
Chittagong Bay Terminal Project

Traffic Flow [From South to North] (Projection up to 2050)

Passenger Passenger
Year Cars/Hr Year Cars/Hr
2022 492 2037 3855
2023 650 2038 4102
2024 897 2039 4348
2025 1143 2040 4595
2026 1390 2041 4841
2027 1636 2042 5088
2028 1883 2043 5334
2029 2129 2044 5581
2030 2376 2045 5827
2031 2622 2046 6074
2032 2869 2047 6320
2033 3115 2048 6567
2034 3362 2049 6959
2035 3609 2050 7299

37 | P a g e

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