Conservative Members Poll

Opinium

The following tables represent the results of research conducted by Opinium Research. If the base is not otherwise s
the results in that table reflect the full sample.

„ RESEARCH OVERVIEW

FIELD DATES | 6 to 8 July 2022

SAMPLE | 493 Conservative members
WEIGHTING | Representative criteria

In instances where the base size falls below 50 respondents, figures should be seen as indicative only. We advise against using
these figures when reporting, unless appropriate caveats are provided.

For more information or research related enquires please contact research@opinium.co.uk

 Friday, July 8, 2022

If the base is not otherwise specified, then

only. We advise against using

 Conservative Members Poll

Contents

PreferredOutcome
Do you think Boris Johnson should remain as leader of the Conservative Party, or resign with som
MultiOutcome If there is to be a leadership election, Conservative MPs decide which two candidates make it o
Outcome2 Please imagine there was a Conservative leadership election and the candidates were Rishi Suna
Outcome3 Please imagine there was a Conservative leadership election and the candidates were Penny Mo
Outcome4 Please imagine there was a Conservative leadership election and the candidates were Liz Truss
Gender Gender
SEG SEG
2019Vote 2019 Vote
Referendum Referendum
Region Region
ervative Party, or resign with someone else becoming leader instead?
which two candidates make it onto the ballot paper. Who do you think they should put on the ballot paper? (Please tick up to two)
d the candidates were Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. Who would you vote for?
d the candidates were Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak. Who would you vote for?
d the candidates were Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt. Who would you vote for?
? (Please tick up to two)
Q:PreferredOutcome. Do you think Boris Johnson should remain as leader of the Conservative Party, or resign with someon

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
51 % 47 % 53 %
Should remain as leader
251 84 159
36 % 37 % 36 %
Should resign as leader
177 67 108
13 % 17 % 12 %
Don't know & Prefer not to say
65 30 35

Return to index
rty, or resign with someone else becoming leader instead?

AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
44 % 52 % 56 % 45 % 53 % 55 %
75 59 116 22 105 57
42 % 38 % 30 % 42 % 33 % 28 %
72 43 62 21 65 29
15 % 10 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 18 %
25 11 29 7 27 18
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
49 % 41 % 32 % 38 % 53 %
55 6 5 28 200
43 % 50 % 45 % 50 % 35 %
48 8 7 37 131
8% 9% 22 % 12 % 13 %
9 1 3 9 48
Q:MultiOutcome. If there is to be a leadership election, Conservative MPs decide which two candidates make it onto the ba

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
25 % 26 % 24 %
Rishi Sunak
121 47 73
21 % 13 % 27 %
Liz Truss
104 23 81
12 % 11 % 13 %
Ben Wallace
58 20 38
10 % 12 % 9%
Dominic Raab
50 22 28
10 % 15 % 8%
Sajid Javid
50 26 24
10 % 8% 10 %
Penny Mordaunt
47 14 31
9% 6% 10 %
Jeremy Hunt
44 11 31
8% 5% 9%
Michael Gove
38 8 27
8% 5% 9%
Priti Patel
37 9 28
6% 5% 7%
Nadhim Zahawi
32 8 21
9% 6% 10 %
Someone else
43 11 32
0% 0% 0%
NA
1 0 1
24 % 34 % 17 %
Prefer not to say & Don't know
116 61 52

Return to index
didates make it onto the ballot paper. Who do you think they should put on the ballot paper? (Please tick up to two)

AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
28 % 27 % 20 % 35 % 22 % 27 %
49 31 41 18 42 28
18 % 19 % 25 % 11 % 17 % 29 %
31 21 51 5 33 30
5% 10 % 19 % 9% 8% 13 %
8 11 39 4 16 14
10 % 10 % 10 % 10 % 9% 10 %
17 11 21 5 18 10
8% 16 % 9% 19 % 8% 8%
13 18 19 9 16 8
8% 11 % 10 % 2% 10 % 6%
13 12 21 1 20 6
9% 7% 10 % 11 % 13 % 4%
15 8 21 6 25 4
9% 5% 8% 8% 8% 9%
16 6 16 4 16 10
11 % 5% 6% 17 % 6% 9%
19 5 13 8 11 9
5% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8%
9 8 14 4 15 8
11 % 11 % 5% 5% 10 % 8%
19 13 11 3 19 9
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
0 0 1 0 1 0
26 % 22 % 22 % 21 % 27 % 22 %
45 25 46 10 53 23
p to two)

Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
26 % 9% 18 % 40 % 20 %
29 1 3 29 77
25 % 33 % 10 % 18 % 21 %
28 5 1 13 81
15 % 35 % 5% 5% 13 %
17 5 1 3 50
11 % 12 % 14 % 10 % 11 %
12 2 2 7 40
13 % 5% 11 % 16 % 10 %
15 1 2 12 38
12 % 24 % 10 % 5% 11 %
14 4 1 4 41
6% 5% 12 % 16 % 9%
7 1 2 11 32
5% 5% 0% 6% 8%
6 1 0 4 31
6% 3% 3% 3% 9%
7 1 1 2 35
5% 0% 0% 6% 6%
6 0 0 4 23
11 % 0% 7% 10 % 8%
12 0 1 8 31
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 1
19 % 24 % 35 % 25 % 24 %
22 4 5 18 89
Q:Outcome2. Please imagine there was a Conservative leadership election and the candidates were Rishi Sunak and Liz Tru

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
33 % 19 % 41 %
Liz Truss
162 35 124
37 % 42 % 36 %
Rishi Sunak
184 75 108
8% 9% 6%
I would not vote
39 17 19
0% 0% 0%
NA
1 0 1
22 % 30 % 17 %
Don't know & Prefer not to say
108 54 51

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ere Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. Who would you vote for?

AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
25 % 35 % 39 % 30 % 29 % 35 %
43 39 80 15 56 36
42 % 39 % 32 % 36 % 35 % 41 %
73 44 67 18 69 42
3% 10 % 11 % 10 % 9% 6%
5 11 23 5 17 6
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
0 0 1 0 1 0
30 % 16 % 18 % 24 % 27 % 19 %
52 19 37 12 53 20
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
41 % 32 % 25 % 17 % 38 %
46 5 4 13 144
38 % 42 % 31 % 54 % 33 %
42 6 4 40 126
6% 9% 18 % 5% 8%
7 1 3 4 30
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 1
15 % 18 % 27 % 24 % 21 %
17 3 4 17 78
Q:Outcome3. Please imagine there was a Conservative leadership election and the candidates were Penny Mordaunt and R

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
29 % 20 % 35 %
Penny Mordaunt
145 36 105
36 % 39 % 35 %
Rishi Sunak
178 71 106
23 % 31 % 17 %
Don't know & Prefer not to say
111 57 53
12 % 10 % 13 %
I would not vote
57 17 38
0% 0% 0%
NA
1 0 1

Return to index
ere Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak. Who would you vote for?

AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
34 % 28 % 27 % 12 % 29 % 30 %
59 31 55 6 58 31
32 % 40 % 38 % 52 % 30 % 42 %
55 45 78 26 60 43
30 % 19 % 19 % 20 % 27 % 20 %
51 21 39 10 53 21
5% 14 % 16 % 15 % 13 % 8%
8 16 34 8 25 8
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
0 0 1 0 1 0
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
37 % 41 % 15 % 20 % 30 %
42 6 2 15 113
34 % 30 % 36 % 51 % 35 %
38 5 5 37 134
18 % 17 % 32 % 22 % 22 %
20 3 5 16 83
11 % 11 % 18 % 7% 13 %
12 2 3 5 48
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 1
Q:Outcome4. Please imagine there was a Conservative leadership election and the candidates were Liz Truss and Penny Mo

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
18 % 17 % 18 %
Penny Mordaunt
88 30 56
40 % 27 % 48 %
Liz Truss
196 49 145
28 % 39 % 22 %
Prefer not to say & Don't know
138 70 65
14 % 17 % 12 %
I would not vote
69 30 35
0% 0% 0%
NA
1 0 1

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ere Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt. Who would you vote for?

AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
23 % 18 % 14 % 15 % 21 % 10 %
39 21 28 7 41 10
30 % 39 % 48 % 31 % 34 % 52 %
52 44 100 16 68 53
36 % 25 % 23 % 35 % 30 % 32 %
62 28 48 18 59 33
11 % 18 % 15 % 19 % 14 % 7%
19 20 30 9 28 7
0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
0 0 1 0 1 0
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
22 % 24 % 10 % 19 % 17 %
24 4 1 14 66
45 % 26 % 23 % 34 % 41 %
51 4 3 25 156
17 % 29 % 35 % 32 % 27 %
20 4 5 24 103
15 % 21 % 32 % 15 % 14 %
17 3 5 11 53
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 1
Q:Gender. Gender

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
61 % 0% 100 %
Male
303 0 303
37 % 100 % 0%
Female
181 181 0
2% 0% 0%
I identify as neither
10 0 0

Return to index
 AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
53 % 69 % 64 % 59 % 56 % 66 %
90 79 134 29 111 68
44 % 30 % 34 % 41 % 41 % 32 %
76 34 71 21 81 33
4% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2%
6 1 2 0 5 2
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
72 % 43 % 44 % 58 % 64 %
81 7 6 43 242
27 % 57 % 42 % 40 % 35 %
31 9 6 30 135
1% 0% 14 % 1% 1%
1 0 2 1 3
Q:SEG. SEG

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
56 % 52 % 59 %
AB
278 94 180
15 % 17 % 15 %
C1
75 30 44
13 % 17 % 11 %
C2
65 30 33
11 % 9% 12 %
DE
53 15 35
5% 6% 4%
NA
22 11 11

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 AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
54 % 57 % 59 % 67 % 57 % 51 %
92 65 121 34 112 53
20 % 17 % 11 % 11 % 13 % 20 %
34 19 22 5 26 21
12 % 9% 16 % 8% 13 % 14 %
20 11 34 4 26 14
10 % 13 % 10 % 9% 10 % 12 %
18 15 20 4 19 13
5% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2%
8 4 10 3 13 2
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
57 % 67 % 33 % 64 % 56 %
64 10 5 47 213
17 % 12 % 10 % 16 % 16 %
19 2 1 12 62
13 % 12 % 31 % 5% 14 %
14 2 5 4 52
11 % 10 % 10 % 9% 9%
12 1 1 7 33
2% 0% 16 % 5% 5%
2 0 2 4 19
Q:2019Vote. 2019 Vote

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
0% 1% 0%
Brexit Party
2 1 1
94 % 93 % 95 %
Conservative Party
465 169 289
0% 1% 0%
I could not vote
2 2 0
1% 3% 1%
I did not vote
7 5 3
1% 1% 1%
Labour Party
5 2 3
1% 0% 2%
Liberal Democrats
5 0 5
0% 1% 0%
NA
2 2 0
0% 0% 0%
Other
1 0 1
0% 0% 0%
Plaid Cymru
1 1 1
0% 0% 0%
Scottish National Party
1 0 1
0% 0% 0%
Sinn Féin
2 0 0

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 AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
0 1 1 1 0 0
89 % 95 % 99 % 98 % 95 % 93 %
154 107 204 49 187 96
1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
2 0 0 0 2 0
2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2%
4 2 1 1 2 2
3% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%
4 1 0 0 3 0
3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
5 0 0 0 0 3
1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
2 0 0 0 0 2
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 1 0 0 0 0
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 1 1 0 0 0
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 1 0 0 1 0
1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
2 0 0 0 2 0
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
1% 0% 5% 0% 1%
1 0 1 0 2
94 % 84 % 90 % 96 % 97 %
106 13 13 70 369
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 2
2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2 0 0 0 1
0% 12 % 0% 2% 1%
0 2 0 2 3
2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 0 0 0 0
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 0
0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
0 1 0 0 1
1% 0% 5% 1% 0%
1 0 1 1 1
0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
0 0 0 1 0
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 0
Q:Referendum. Referendum

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
77 % 75 % 80 %
Leave
379 135 242
15 % 16 % 14 %
Remain
74 30 43
3% 3% 2%
Can't remember
13 5 6
5% 5% 4%
Did not vote
24 8 11
1% 2% 0%
NA
4 4 0

Return to index
 AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
67 % 76 % 86 % 83 % 76 % 77 %
115 87 178 41 150 79
17 % 20 % 10 % 10 % 16 % 13 %
30 22 22 5 31 14
5% 2% 1% 3% 3% 2%
8 2 3 2 6 2
9% 2% 2% 0% 5% 6%
16 3 5 0 9 7
2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 2%
4 0 0 2 0 2
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
78 % 64 % 68 % 0% 100 %
88 10 10 0 379
14 % 36 % 18 % 100 % 0%
15 5 3 74 0
3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 0 0 0 0
5% 0% 14 % 0% 0%
6 0 2 0 0
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 0
Q:Region. Region

Gender

Total Female Male

No. of cases 493 213 272
Base: all participants 493 181 303
10 % 8% 11 %
East Midlands
49 14 34
14 % 17 % 12 %
East of England
67 30 37
10 % 11 % 10 %
Greater London
50 21 29
0% 0% 0%
NA
2 1 1
4% 3% 5%
North East
21 5 15
12 % 9% 13 %
North West
57 16 41
3% 5% 2%
Scotland
15 9 7
14 % 18 % 10 %
South East
68 32 31
12 % 10 % 14 %
South West
61 18 42
3% 3% 2%
Wales
14 6 6
11 % 11 % 11 %
West Midlands
54 19 34
7% 5% 8%
Yorkshire and The Humber
34 9 25

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 AgeR Region

Under 45 45 - 64 65+ Greater London South & East Midlands

81 175 237 40 205 99
172 113 207 50 196 103
11 % 9% 10 % 0% 0% 48 %
19 10 20 0 0 49
13 % 12 % 15 % 0% 34 % 0%
23 14 31 0 67 0
18 % 6% 6% 100 % 0% 0%
30 7 12 50 0 0
0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 2 0 0 0
4% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0%
7 4 9 0 0 0
11 % 17 % 10 % 0% 0% 0%
18 19 20 0 0 0
4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0%
6 4 5 0 0 0
17 % 13 % 12 % 0% 35 % 0%
29 14 25 0 68 0
5% 12 % 18 % 0% 31 % 0%
9 14 38 0 61 0
2% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0%
4 4 7 0 0 0
10 % 8% 14 % 0% 0% 52 %
17 9 28 0 0 54
7% 12 % 5% 0% 0% 0%
11 14 10 0 0 0
Region Referendum

North Scotland Wales Remain Leave

115 16 16 74 390
112 15 14 74 379
0% 0% 0% 12 % 9%
0 0 0 9 36
0% 0% 0% 16 % 14 %
0 0 0 12 54
0% 0% 0% 7% 11 %
0 0 0 5 41
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 0 0 0 2
18 % 0% 0% 5% 5%
21 0 0 3 17
51 % 0% 0% 9% 12 %
57 0 0 7 44
0% 100 % 0% 7% 3%
0 15 0 5 10
0% 0% 0% 10 % 13 %
0 0 0 8 51
0% 0% 0% 16 % 12 %
0 0 0 12 45
0% 0% 100 % 3% 3%
0 0 14 3 10
0% 0% 0% 7% 11 %
0 0 0 5 43
31 % 0% 0% 7% 7%
34 0 0 5 27