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Science News - 17.06.2023
Science News - 17.06.2023
Amazon
on the
Edge Scientists struggle to
predict the forest’s fate
VOL. 203 | NO. 11
Features
18 The Amazon’s Cloudy Future
COVER STORY Scientists are scrambling to
understand how deforestation, climate change and
other factors will shape the fate of the world’s largest
rainforest. Is the forest reaching a point of no return
or is it more resilient than we thought? By Nikk Ogasa
News
6 Researchers discover a 8 The U.S. Food and Scalloped hammerhead
second rare mutation that Drug Administration sharks appear to hold
has approved the first their breath to stay
delays the onset of familial
vaccine for RSV. Others warm on deep dives
Alzheimer’s disease
might be on the way
12 Electric vehicles can help
7 A paralyzed man can walk 10 Brain implants may have reduce carbon dioxide
almost naturally thanks to identified a biomarker emissions but also lead
brain and spine implants for chronic pain to more air pollution 4
for disadvantaged
communities Departments
13 A fear of large predators 2 EDITOR’S NOTE
pushes bobcats and
coyotes toward a more 4 NOTEBOOK
dangerous foe — humans A new tool for fighting
mosquitoes; the physics of
14 Dusty micrometeoroids shouting into the wind
FROM TOP: JIN LIWANG/XINHUA/ALAMY LIVE NEWS; EPHOTOCORP/ISTOCK/
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SOCIETY FOR SCIENCE
ADV E RTI SE M E NT
NOTEBOOK
50 YEARS AGO
Comets, novas
and the Mayans
Did the Mayans record novas
and comets? … Comparing THE SCIENCE LIFE
SCIENCE STATS
through Mars’ interior for four Earth years. In May 2022, the lowlands (blue) while the southern hemisphere is more mountainous.
entire planet shook with a magnitude 4.7 quake that lasted for Knowing the thickness of Mars’ crust is helping scientists study why.
about 10 hours (SN: 6/18/22, p. 5).
InSight recorded seismic waves from the quake that circled But the crust is thinner in the northern hemisphere, the
Mars up to three times. That let seismologist Doyeon Kim of team found, so the rocks in both hemispheres probably have
ETH Zurich and colleagues infer the crust thick- the same average densities. That finding helps
~70
ness over the whole planet. Not only is the crust scientists narrow down the explanations for why
thicker than that of the Earth and the moon, the difference exists in the first place.
but it’s also inconsistent across the Red Planet, The team’s analysis also suggests that much
the team found. And that might explain a known percent of Mars’ internal heat — generated by radioactive
north-south elevation difference on Mars. How much thicker Mars’ potassium, uranium and thorium — originates in
Topological and gravity data from Mars orbiters crust is than Earth’s the crust. Using crust thickness data, computer
have shown that the planet’s northern hemisphere simulations estimated that 50 to 70 percent of
is substantially lower than the southern one. Researchers had those elements are probably in the crust rather than the under-
suspected that perhaps the rocks in the north have a different lying mantle. The finding supports the idea that parts of Mars
density than those in the south. still are volcanically active (SN: 12/3/22, p. 12). — Lisa Grossman
BY SIMON MAKIN rare inherited variety of Alzheimer’s. at age 74, from other causes, and his fam-
A genetic mutation never seen before People with “familial” Alzheimer’s usually ily donated his brain for study.
protected a man with an inherited form start showing signs in their 40s. The more The researchers compared the two
of Alzheimer’s from developing the common “sporadic” form typically doesn’t cases, finding striking similarities and
disease for decades. cause symptoms until people are in their differences. Amyloid plaques, thought by
He is the second known person to have 70s or 80s. many researchers to be deeply involved
such protection, following a report in The woman stayed sharp into her 70s, in Alzheimer’s, were abundant in both
2019 of a woman with a different muta- while the man remained mentally healthy patients’ brains. But the woman had low
tion (SN: 2/1/20, p. 20). Both mutations until 67. “That means they were protected, levels of another possible contributor to
may have staved off the disease by act- because they should have gotten the dis- Alzheimer’s, clusters of proteins called tau
ing in similar ways in the brain, an insight ease 30 years earlier, and they didn’t,” says tangles. The researchers think this is what
that could lead to new treatments for all Diego Sepulveda-Falla, a neurologist at spared her from dementia for decades, as
forms of Alzheimer’s, scientists report in the University Medical Center Hamburg- tau is thought to be more tightly linked to
the May Nature Medicine. Eppendorf in Germany. symptoms than amyloid.
But some researchers are cautious The woman had a protective mutation In the Colombian man’s brain, the
about concluding too much from just two in a gene closely linked to Alzheimer’s, researchers found a different picture. He
cases. “The results look very promising, APOE. This mutation is known as the had a lot more tau tangles than the woman
but it would be useful to see replication in Christchurch variant, after the city in did. “This shocked us initially, then we fig-
more samples,” says neurologist Rudolph New Zealand where it was first found. The ured out we needed to roll our sleeves up
Tanzi of Harvard Medical School. Still, he mutation identified in the new study was and dig deeper,” Sepulveda-Falla says.
says, the work “can serve as a useful guide in a gene called RELN. Sepulveda-Falla Some brain regions, notably the ento-
for drug discovery.” and colleagues named this new mutation rhinal cortex, which is important for
Both the man and woman came from RELN-COLBOS, after a joint Colombia- memory and one of the earliest areas
the same Colombian family with a muta- Boston study that the man who had it affected in Alzheimer’s, had been spared
tion in the PSEN1 gene that causes the participated in. He died three years ago, from tau tangles, the team found.
The difference in tau between the two
Aggregations of proteins called tau tangles (orange clumps in this illustration of a brain cell) are a cases is due to where the two protective
major sign of Alzheimer’s disease. Certain mutations may protect against the formation of tangles. genes are active in the brain. In adults,
RELN is active in only a few places, includ-
ing the entorhinal cortex. APOE is active
everywhere. “Since APOE is ubiquitous, in
one patient you get protection all around,”
Sepulveda-Falla says. “In this other, the
protection is localized to [certain] neu-
rons, and by chance they happen to be
the neurons that are key for preserving
cognition.” JUAN GAERTNER/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/GETTY IMAGES PLUS
could walk only over flat surfaces. says. “We need to figure out how the two ing on miniaturizing the brain implant and
The new study aimed to hand control are working together.” processing unit. The goal, Courtine says,
over to Gert-Jan’s brain. After three years The extent of Gert-Jan’s recovery deliv- is to develop a commercial version that
of using the spinal cord implant, “he hit a ered quality of life boosts, such as moving is “easy for patients to use in daily life.”
the most protection. Companies are there- ness officer. Those mutations change Only Pfizer is testing the ability of its vac-
fore targeting the virus in a variety of ways. the virus’s RNA but don’t alter the amino cine to protect newborns. But instead of
GSK, Pfizer and Moderna have devel- acids in its proteins. giving the vaccine candidate to babies,
oped vaccines based on one of RSV’s “We’re able to design viruses … that the company gave it to over 7,300 healthy
concerns said the clinical trial wasn’t Placebo with different people and disease defini-
2.5
properly designed to detect that poten- Vaccine tions that don’t completely line up.
B. KAMPMANN ET AL/NEJM 2023
(percent)
2.0
tial complication. Without masking and social distanc-
1.5
The FDA generally follows the recom- ing, RSV probably won’t disappear again.
1.0
mendations of its advisory committee. A And the new vaccines probably won’t
decision is expected later this summer 0.5 stop RSV’s spread. But they may at least
and may come in time for mothers to get 0 protect the most vulnerable among us
0 30 60 90 120 150 180
vaccinated ahead of RSV season. Days after birth against the virus’s worst effects.
NEUROSCIENCE ANIMALS
ity in two brain treat a patient, to To find out how the sharks endure such
regions: the ACC
(purple) and the OFC actually make them frigid temperatures, Royer and colleagues
(yellow). feel more seen.” attached specially designed instruments
HONEST, TRANSPARENT
WITH SPECIFIC
SUGGESTIONS AND IDEAS!
Cancer survivor Social worker
IRA SCHULTE Psychotherapist
DERON VERBECK
A push for EVs made inequities worse known as PM2.5 (SN: 8/29/20, p. 7). “These
particles are small enough to penetrate
California’s electric vehicle rebates left vulnerable people behind deep into the lungs and cross over into the
bloodstream,” increasing the risk of can-
BY CAROLYN GRAMLING plant emissions but also on factors such as cer, cardiovascular problems and cognitive
A worldwide gearshift from fossil fuel– income, education level, access to health decline, Mejía-Duwan says.
powered cars to electric vehicles, or EVs, care and linguistic isolation. That increase may be indirectly related
could significantly reduce the amount of The CVRP reduced the state’s over- to putting more EVs on the road. Although
carbon dioxide that humans emit to the all CO2 emissions by an average of about electric vehicles themselves don’t produce
atmosphere. But current strategies for 280,000 m etric tons per year, Mejía- PM2.5, increased electricity generation, if
vehicle electrification can also shift some Duwan says. In 2020, transportation in from fossil fuels, can. Renewable resources
pollution to communities already suffer- California produced about 140 million supplied about half of the electricity that
ing under higher economic, health and tons of CO2 — about 40 percent of the total California generated in 2022. But natural
environmental burdens, researchers warn. 370 million tons of CO2 emitted in the state gas–fired power plants still provide a hefty
California leads the United States in that year. The program has also reduced the chunk of the state’s power.
EV adoption and thus offers a window state’s overall emissions of sulfur dioxide “Electric vehicles are often incorrectly
into this evolving problem. In an effort and a group of nitrogen oxides known as referred to as ‘zero-emissions vehicles,’ but
to reduce its carbon footprint, the state NOx, two other types of air pollution. they’re only as clean as the electric grid
in 2010 instituted the California Clean But California’s most disadvantaged from which the energy is sourced,” Mejía-
Vehicle Rebate Project, or CVRP, a pro- communities didn’t see the same overall Duwan says. The most disadvantaged
gram that offers consumers money back improvement in air quality, Mejía-Duwan 25 percent of the state’s communities con-
for purchasing or leasing new EVs. and colleagues found. Those communities tain 50 percent of the natural gas–fired
Now, an analysis of the CVRP’s impact didn’t have the same decreases in sulfur power plants, the team found.
on the state’s air quality from 2010 to 2021 dioxide and NOx gases, and some even EVs also tend to be relatively heavy due
reveals both good and bad news, research- to their hefty batteries. “Heavier vehicles
ers report May 3 in PLOS Climate. Though Where the power is California’s electric can produce as much if not more par-
more EVs on the road reduced California’s generating units (circles) are disproportion- ticulate matter” than equivalently sized
ately located in communities that bear the
overall CO2 footprint, the state’s EV rebate highest burden from pollution (dark blue), conventional cars due to brake, tire or
program didn’t make purchasing the cars based on exposure and socioeconomic factors. road wear, Mejía-Duwan says.
more accessible for everyone. And an Increasing the cleanliness of the elec-
increase in electricity generation may Pollution impact by community tric grid would help reduce inequities in
even have worsened air quality for the air quality and cut down on air pollution
most disadvantaged communities. generally, as would changes to the man-
Environmental scientist Jaye Mejía- agement of the state’s generated power,
Duwan of the University of California, the researchers say. California’s solar,
Berkeley and colleagues assessed the wind and hydroelectric energy produc-
CVRP’s impact on a community and tion has grown rapidly. But the battery
statewide level. The team developed a technology to store and use that energy
computer model that incorporates data later lags behind. Most renewable energy
on where the rebates went, how much is generated during the day, so some
additional electricity would be required researchers have suggested plugging in J. MEJÍA-DUWAN, M. HINO AND K.J. MACH/PLOS CLIMATE 2023
to power those EVs, which of the state’s EVs while it’s light out to take advantage
electric generating units, or EGUs, would of the daytime glut of electricity — and
provide that electricity and how much then using the vehicles to help power
pollution they might produce. houses at night.
The team then overlapped these data Even if the electric grid were cleaned
Electric
with the mapping tool CalEnviroScreen. It up, that wouldn’t address the underlying
generating unit
identifies which of the state’s more than factors behind inequities in EV adoption.
8,000 census tracts — county subdivi- Level of pollution Since 2010, the CVRP has provided more
burden
sions used in population assessments — are than 400,000 rebates of up to $7,500,
Highest
the most vulnerable to pollution. That depending on income. Yet those rebates
vulnerability measure is based not only have disproportionately gone to the least
on exposure to pollutants such as power Lowest disadvantaged communities. Several
stretches of North America, predators played recordings of either growling of smaller carnivores, Levi says. This study
less threatening to humans flourished. or human voices, smaller meat eaters shows that they can — and will — indirectly
Then, as large predators were reintro- like coyotes were more likely to “avoid shape how smaller meat eaters live and
duced into the wild — including wolves areas where you play recordings of Rush die near people.
ASTRONOMY
their original positions. In the quantum fragile quantum information, which is says Quantinuum’s Henrik Dreyer, a phys-
world, that’s not always the case. easily knocked out of whack by minute icist in Munich. The finding “confirms
“It’s predicted that there is this crazy disturbances. that the rules of quantum mechanics
particle where, if you swap them around “For fundamental reasons these anyons apply in the way that we thought they
each other while you have your eyes have been very exciting, and for practical would apply.”
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ADV E RTI SE M E NT
FEATURE
The Amazon’s
Cloudy Future Scientists race to foretell the fate of
the vast forest facing deforestation
and climate change By Nikk Ogasa
complicating efforts to slow climate change. out of the basin rather than sail into deeper sections of the
The Amazon is in grave trouble, scientists agree. Human forest that need it, Finer says. “That deforestation cuts off the
activities and climate change are exacerbating the dry season; whole system.”
in some areas, it lasts four to five weeks longer than decades Already, about 30 percent of the Amazon’s eastern third has
ago. Fires have also become more fierce. All of that is stressing been cleared, Finer and colleagues reported in a 2022 MAAP
the forest out. report. Deforestation averaged across the whole forest may not
But much like the physical transition separating the Amazon yet have crossed that 20 to 25 percent threshold, but “in that
from the Cerrado, the forest’s limit is probably not defined by a eastern third, it’s way worse,” Finer says. If that destructive trend
single, clear tipping point, many scientists now say. The Amazon continues in the east, it could decapitate the Amazon’s skyborne
is no monolith. Different parts may react to threats in different streams of moisture, he says. Finer doesn’t think the forest has
ways, Marimon says. yet crossed a tipping point, but, like other scientists, stresses it
A multitude of poorly understood factors affect the forest’s could be hard to know for years.
fate: The myriad forms of human actions. Climate change. The Even if this rain recycling goes bust, the forest’s western
The rainforest as
rainmaker Airborne moisture Airborne moisture
Winds carry moisture In Out In Out
into the eastern
Amazon, where it
falls as rain. Much Rainfall Evapotranspiration Rainfall Evapotranspiration
of it soaks into the
soil, where some
water is taken up by
roots and ultimately
transpired through
leaves back into the
air. Winds then carry
this moisture deeper
into the forest, where
the cycle repeats
(left). But cutting
down trees reduces
the water taken up by
roots and evapo-
transpiration (right).
That breaks the cycle,
increasing local runoff
and reducing rainfall Recycled rainfall
in the interior.
SOURCE: L.E.O.C. ARAGÃO/
NATURE 2012
Runoff Runoff
region — about a third of its expanse — could still hold out. This some plants, exacerbating fires and pushing out animals.
area is backed by the towering Andes, which wring westbound Where degradation reduces vegetation, it shrivels transpira-
winds of water and ensure that heavy rain falls upon nearby for- tion. For each leaf lost, the forest’s moisture loses one little gate
ests. The area’s lush vegetation shouldn’t suffer too terribly from back into the sky. During a typical dry season, severely degraded
distant deforestation, Nobre says. forests may release 34 percent less water back to the sky. That
Deforestation doesn’t just harm the tracts where trees are loss directly sabotages the forest’s rain recycling, imperiling
felled. The warming and drying that follow in deforestation’s trees that depend upon it.
wake may spill over into the edges of intact forests nearby, Because degradation can unfold in so many ways, computer
affecting which plant and animal species persist there. That’s simulations that project changes in the Amazon’s vegetation can-
one of the many ways forests become degraded, a condition not say exactly how it may contribute to a tipping point.
that’s often less obvious than outright clear-cutting. “It’s logical to think that such degradation helps push the
Nonetheless, it’s pervasive. About 38 percent of the remaining system towards the tipping point, if it really exists,” says earth
Amazon rainforest has been degraded, researchers reported in system scientist David Lapola of the University of Campinas in
January in Science. That’s an area equivalent to nearly a third of Brazil. But “we can’t today say this percentage of degradation
Brazil, or more than three times the size of Texas. will make the system tip to another stable state.”
Degradation can take many forms, with repercussions that
vary depending on the damage’s nature, intensity and scope. A drier future
Fires can raze parts of the rainforest. If the burned land is left The Amazon isn’t just dealing with deforestation and deg-
alone, Amazon plants typically return on their own, bursting radation, of course. Over the last 50 years, the average annual
forth from seeds and roots in the soil. But severe fires can temperature across the forest has climbed at least 0.6 degrees C.
destroy these buried remnants too, denying some species the And exceptionally severe droughts have struck the forest three
chance to return. As such, the forests that grow back often times in the last two decades. Some climate models suggest
lack the diversity of their predecessors. Where humans have that by 2060, such extreme drought conditions could occur
repeatedly burned the land in the past, the forest may recover as often as 9 in every 10 years.
more slowly and be dominated by just a few fire-resistant spe- Recent climate simulations suggest that if such drought years
cies even after two decades. became the new “climate normal,” patches of the rainforest may
T. TIBBITTS
Meanwhile, selective logging can open a forest’s closed can- transition to a different state — whether that be savanna or a
opy, ushering in sunlight to heat and dry the understory, killing more open or dry forest — at different times, not all at once.
vegetation as relatively homogenous, says earth system scien- and vascular collapse than species in the forest’s west. Hirota,
tist Marina Hirota of the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Marimon and their colleagues reported this finding in April in
Florianópolis, Brazil. They cast every tree as a broadleaf evergreen Nature after studying 129 tree species from 11 plots across the
tree, the forest as a monoculture. These simplified simulations, Amazon. The work suggests rainfall patterns have shaped plant
called “big leaf” models, prevail because researchers lack data, communities’ capacities to cope with drought.
Hirota says, but the models don’t do the forest justice. Then, there’s what lies underground — the groundwater — which
Over millions of years, the forest’s myriad plant communi- is poorly captured by many simulations. Most investigations into
ties have evolved differently to cope with local rainfall patterns. the forest’s response to drought have focused on upland areas
overlying deep water tables, which roots struggle to access. But CO2 fertilization” could preclude a massive forest dieback.
about half of the Amazon may stand atop a relatively shallow But CO2 and sunlight aren’t all that’s needed for growth. Plants
water table. That accessible groundwater could sustain plants also consume nutrients from soils, and Amazonian soils are
through droughts in ways that models don’t account for, says notoriously lacking, especially in phosphorus (SN: 1/28/23, p. 10;
ecologist Flávia Costa of Brazil’s National Institute of Amazonian SN: 4/10/21, p. 7). Using computer simulations for a 2019 study,
Research in Manaus. Lapola and colleagues found that a dearth of phosphorus would
Such areas could serve as drought refugia, Costa says: “Places probably reduce the projected growth gains associated with
that do not suffer.” But if drought gets too severe and ground- more abundant CO2 by about 50 percent over 15 years. The
water recedes beyond the reach of roots, refuges could become team’s conclusion: Previous projections may have overesti-
ruinous. “Those places may be the ones that suffer the most mated the benefits of extra carbon dioxide.
because the plants are not adapted” to dry conditions, she says. No large-scale experiments have yet tested the effects of CO2
Hirota, Marimon and others are still studying how Amazonian fertilization on the Amazon. But Lapola and colleagues have
plants are coping with drought to amass more information about almost finished constructing steel towers that will spray carbon
what Hirota calls plants’ “life strategies.” The goal is to use the dioxide over mature groves in the Amazon, to see how the trees
data to improve existing vegetation models and simulate more respond. It may still take years to acquire meaningful results.
accurately the diverse responses to climate change and land
use changes. What comes next?
This research, and other investigations into the many capa- At this point, scientists don’t have enough information to say
bilities and adaptations of the Amazon’s plants, will be necessary when, or if, the Amazon will cross some threshold beyond
to better inform projections of the Amazon’s fate, Hirota says. which it becomes unrecognizable, Lapola says. Today’s com-
The same, Costa says, goes for the influence of groundwater. puter models are trying to open doors into the future, to peer
A third source of uncertainty in figuring out the Amazon’s beyond thresholds and see what’s ahead for the Amazon. But
fate wafts invisibly through the air. Researchers had previously with the data available today, “we’re looking into a room from
suggested that an atmosphere richer in CO2 might boost the for- the hole of the lock.”
est’s growth, potentially offsetting some of the tolls of climate That a web of local diebacks could unravel across the forest is
change. Some experts had even proposed that this “atmospheric worrisome, but that fragmented fate may carry more hope than
a single catastrophic switch, Hirota says. For one, it could help
The Amazon basin is home to a variety of ecosystems, including várzeas
(top left), white-sand savannas (top right), terra firme (bottom left) and dissuade people from writing the forest off as a lost cause after
igapós (bottom right). crossing some predicted limit.
Resignation is a serious concern, Nobre says. “If we take for And Marimon implores people to stop buying Amazonian
granted that the tipping point has already been exceeded, then beef and other products that fuel the engine of deforestation.
people say forget it.” Around 75 percent of the land deforested in the Amazon is used
Nobre aims to restore some of the forest’s most deforested as pastures for grazing cattle, and Brazil is now the world’s
areas, to tilt the Amazon away from that momentous tip, or to largest exporter of beef.
at least rein in the lengthening of the dry season. He and others Taking real steps to change behavior is in the best interest of
have called for extensive reforesting along what they call arcs all who call this planet home. Beyond the Amazon’s irreplaceable
of restoration. “One arc over the southern Amazon, another one biodiversity, beyond its colossal carbon stores, there are wind
along the Andes,” he says. Such work hasn’t yet begun. and ocean currents that connect the forest to regions across
Even if it does, restoration alone cannot succeed if deforesta- the globe (SN: 3/11/23, p. 9). Amazonian temperature anomalies
tion and degradation continue. It takes far less time to timber a have been linked to anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau, where
tree than to grow one. glaciers that supply around 2 billion people with drinking water
Not all human activity has harmed the forest. People from are shrinking, and to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Indigenous groups have acted as stewards of the forest’s bio- Back in Mato Grosso, Marimon suspects that the changes
diversity for millennia. Plants that they domesticated long ago, she’s witnessed there could eventually unfold across much of
such as Brazil nut trees and umari trees, are still abundant in the Amazon. Year after year, more trees disappear and the air is
some areas near ancient settlements. Today, Indigenous ter- getting hotter. Insects that once buzzed about in throngs have
ritories as well as protected areas make up more than half of vanished. And in some places, the piercing shrieks of the capitão
the forest in the Brazilian Amazon. Since 2000, only 5 percent da mata — an iconic, vociferous bird — have vanished. Shrieks that
of forest loss has occurred on these grounds. Working with the warned to all who heard them: Danger is afoot.
people living in these areas to stave off further deforestation and
BEN HUR MARIMON JR.
K
eeping secrets is hard. Kids know it. Celebrities know exploit the weird physics of the minuscule realm of atoms and
it. National security experts know it, too. electrons to perform certain types of calculations out of reach
And it’s about to get even harder. for standard computers. That means that once the quantum
There’s always someone who wants to get at the juicy machines are powerful enough, they could crack the mathemati-
details we’d rather keep hidden. Yet at every moment, untold vol- cal padlocks on encrypted data, laying bare the world’s secrets.
umes of private information are zipping along internet cables and Today’s quantum computers are far too puny to defeat current
HARALD RITSCH/SCIENCE SOURCE
optical fibers. That information’s privacy relies on encryption, a security measures. But with more powerful quantum machines
way to mathematically scramble data to prevent any snoops from being regularly rolled out by the likes of IBM and Google, sci-
deciphering it — even with the help of powerful computers. entists, governments and others are beginning to take action.
But the mathematical basis of these techniques is under Experts are spreading the word that it’s time to prepare for a
threat from a foe that has, until recently, seemed hypothetical: milestone some are calling Y2Q. That’s the year that quantum
quantum computers. computers will gain the ability to crack the encoding schemes
In the 1990s, scientists realized that these computers could that keep electronic communications secure.
Swapping secrets with strangers Public-key cryptography allows people in far-flung places who have never met to share secret informa-
tion. A publicly available key is used to encode the message being sent, and a different but mathematically related private key — known only to the
intended recipient — is used to decode the message. SOURCE: D. MOODY
Alice Alice
Trapdoor trouble Moody of NIST, “but it wasn’t a practical threat.” Since then, there’s
If public-key encryption keeps your data hidden away under the been a quantum computing boom (SN: 7/8/17 & 7/22/17, p. 28).
floorboards, then to read that information, you need to build a The machines are being built using qubits made from various
way in. You have to be able to access the data with your private materials — from individual atoms to flecks of silicon to super-
key. “There’s got to be a secret door somewhere in there, where conductors (which conduct electricity without resistance) — but
if I knock the right way, it opens up,” Mosca says. all calculate according to quantum rules. IBM’s superconducting
Constructing such a trapdoor demands special mathemati- quantum computer Osprey, for example, has 433 qubits. That’s
cal tactics, based on operations that are easy to perform in one up from the five qubits of the computer IBM unveiled in 2016.
direction but hard in the opposite direction. Multiplying two The company plans to roll out one with more than a thousand
prime numbers together is quick work for a computer, even if qubits this year.
the numbers are very large. But it’s much more time-consuming That’s still far from the Y2Q threshold: To break RSA encryp-
for a computer to calculate the primes from their product. For tion, a quantum computer would need 20 million qubits,
large enough numbers, it’s impossible to do in a practical amount researchers reported in 2021 in Quantum.
of time with a standard computer. Mosca estimates that in the next 15 years, there’s about a
The challenge of finding the prime factors of a large num- 50 percent chance of a quantum computer powerful enough
ber is behind one of the main types of public-key encryption to break standard public-key encryption. That may seem like a
used today, known as RSA. A hacker using a classical computer long time, but experts estimate that previous major cryptogra-
wouldn’t be able to deduce the private key from the public key. phy overhauls have taken around 15 years. “This is not a Tuesday
Another math problem, known as the discrete logarithm prob- patch,” Mosca says.
lem, is a similar one-way street. The threat is even more pressing because the data we send
These two mathematical problems underlie nearly all of the today could be vulnerable to quantum computers that don’t exist
public-key cryptography in use today. But a sufficiently powerful yet. Hackers could harvest encrypted information now, and later
quantum computer would blow their trapdoors wide open. “All decode it once a powerful quantum computer becomes avail-
of those public-key algorithms are vulnerable to an attack that able, Mosca says. “It’s just bad news if we don’t get ahead of this.”
can only be carried out by a quantum computer,” says mathema-
tician Angela Robinson of NIST, in Gaithersburg, Md. “Our whole Shoring up security
digital world is relying on quantum-vulnerable algorithms.” Getting ahead of the problem is the aim of Moody, Robinson and
This vulnerability came to light in 1994, when mathematician others who are part of NIST’s effort to select and standardize
Peter Shor, now at MIT, came up with an algorithm that would post-quantum encryption and digital signatures. Such tech-
allow quantum computers to solve both of these math problems. niques would have to thwart hackers using quantum machines,
In quantum machines, the bits, called qubits, can take on values while still protecting from classical hacks.
of 0 and 1 simultaneously, a state known as a superposition. And After NIST put out a call for post-quantum algorithms in 2016,
qubits can be linked with one another through the quantum the team received dozens of proposed schemes. The research-
connection called entanglement, enabling new tactics like Shor’s ers sorted through the candidates, weighing considerations
(SN: 7/8/17 & 7/22/17, p. 34). including the level of security provided and the computational
“Back then, that was an interesting theoretical paper. Quan- resources needed for each. Finally, in July 2022, NIST announced
tum computers were a distant dream,” says mathematician Dustin four schemes that had risen to the top. Once the final standards
for those algorithms are ready in 2024, organizations can begin
A lattice approach Some post-quantum encryption schemes rely making the post-quantum leap. Meanwhile, NIST continues to
on what’s known as the shortest vector problem. Take a set of two long consider additional candidates.
vectors (green on the left). By placing those vectors end-to-end, it’s
possible to trace out a grid of points (blue). The shortest vector problem In parallel with NIST’s efforts, others are endorsing the post-
is to find the shortest of the vectors (the horizontal arrow in the grid on quantum endeavor. In May 2022, the White House put out a D. MOODY AND A. ROBINSON/IEEE SECURITY & PRIVACY 2022
the right) that can be used to trace out that same grid. That’s not so hard memo setting 2035 as the goal for U.S. government agencies to
in two dimensions. But when used for cryptography, the problem must
be solved in hundreds of dimensions, a nearly impossible task. go post-quantum. In November, Google announced it is already
using post-quantum cryptography in internal communications.
Several of the algorithms selected by NIST share a mathe-
matical basis — a technique called lattice-based cryptography.
It relies on a problem involving describing a lattice, or a grid of
points, using a set of arrows, or vectors.
In math, a lattice is described by a set of vectors used to pro-
duce it. Consider Manhattan. Even if you’d never seen a map of
the city, you could roughly reproduce its grid using two arrows,
one the length and direction of an avenue block and the other
matching a street block. Discounting the city’s quirks, such as
could, theoretically at least, be fully safe from both quantum 200 kilometers. In China, an extensive network connects cities
and classical hacks. along a more than 2,000-kilometer backbone that wends from
By transmitting photons — particles of light — and measuring Beijing to Shanghai, along with two quantum satellites that beam
their properties upon arrival, it’s possible to generate a shared photons through the air. A quantum network crisscrosses South
private key that is verifiably safe from eavesdroppers. Korea, and another links several U.K. cities. There are networks in
This quantum key distribution, or QKD, relies on a principle of Tokyo and the Netherlands — the list goes on, with more to come.
quantum physics called the no-cloning theorem. Essentially, it’s Many of these networks are test-beds used by researchers to
impossible to copy quantum information. Any attempt to do so study the technology outside of a lab. But some are getting real-
will alter the original information, revealing that someone was world use. Banks use China’s network, and South Korea’s links
snooping. “Someone who was trying to learn that information government agencies. Companies such as ID Quantique, based
would basically leave a fingerprint behind,” says quantum engi- in Switzerland, offer commercial QKD devices.
It takes two
QKD and post-quantum cryptography are complementary. “In
order to overcome the threat of the quantum computers we need
A link between a ground station (red and green lasers shown in this both,” says physicist Nicolas Gisin of the University of Geneva
time-lapse image) and the quantum satellite Micius shows the potential
for long-distance secure communications. The satellite beams photons and cofounder of ID Quantique. When people are exchanging
to the ground station, in Xinglong, China. information that doesn’t require the utmost security — say, using
a mobile phone to post cat memes on Reddit — post-quantum
QKD’s security is mathematically proven, but quantum cryptography will be more practical, as it doesn’t demand a
networks can fall short of that guarantee in practice. The difficulty to-and-fro of individual quantum particles. But “there are really
of creating, transmitting, detecting and storing quantum particles situations where we want to make sure that the security is going
can open loopholes. Devices and networks must be painstakingly to last … for several decades, and post-quantum cryptography
designed and tested to ensure a hacker can’t game the system. cannot guarantee that,” Gisin says.
And one missing component in particular is holding quantum Eventually, quantum techniques could allow for even more
networks back. “The number one device is quantum memory,” advanced types of security, such as blind quantum computing.
says quantum physicist Xiongfeng Ma of Tsinghua University in In that scheme, a user could compute something on a remote
Beijing. When sending quantum information over long distances quantum computer without anyone being able to determine what
through fibers, particles can easily get lost along the way. For they’re computing. A technique called covert quantum com-
distances greater than about 100 kilometers, that makes quan- munication would allow users to communicate securely while
tum communication impractical without the use of way stations hiding that they were exchanging messages at all. And device-
that amplify the signal. Such way stations temporarily convert independent QKD would ensure security even if the devices used
data into classical, rather than quantum, information. That clas- to communicate are potentially flawed (SN: 8/27/22, p. 10).
sical step means hackers could target these “trusted nodes” The appeal of such extreme secrecy, of course, depends upon
undetected, marring QKD’s pristine security. And it limits what whether you’re the secret-keeper or the snoop. In the United
quantum maneuvers the networks can do. States, government agencies like the FBI, CIA and the National
It’s not possible to create pairs of particles that are entangled Security Agency have argued that encryption makes it difficult
over long distances in a network like this. But special stations to eavesdrop on criminals or terrorists. The agencies have a
sprinkled throughout the network, called quantum repeaters, history of advocating for back doors that would let them in on
could solve the problem by storing information in a quantum encrypted communications — or building in secret back doors.
memory. To create far-flung entangled particles, scientists could But quantum techniques, done properly, can prevent anyone
JIN LIWANG/XINHUA/ALAMY LIVE NEWS
first entangle sets of particles over short distances, storing them from intercepting secrets, even powerful government agencies.
in quantum memories at each quantum repeater. Performing “It’s interesting to think about a world where, in principle, one
certain operations on the entangled particles could leapfrog that might imagine perfect security,” Awschalom says. “Is that a good
entanglement to other particles farther apart. By repeating this thing or is that a bad thing?”
process, particles could be entangled across extended distances.
But, thanks in part to quantum particles’ tendency to be easily Explore more
perturbed by outside influences, scientists have yet to develop For a Q&A with Matt Scholl, chief of the computer security
a practical quantum repeater. “When that does appear, it’s likely division at NIST, visit bit.ly/Matt_Scholl
Learn more about the STEM Research Grants Program and apply for a grant:
www.societyforscience.org/stem-research-grants
REVIEWS & PREVIEWS
BOOKSHELF
JPL-CALTECH/NASA, MSSS
image (above) from the James Webb Space Telescope. 23 degrees from everything else seen orbiting the star. “This
Fomalhaut, a scant 25 light-years from Earth, is a young star is a truly unique aspect of the system,” says Gáspár, of the
at the center of a rapidly evolving planetary system. It was University of Arizona in Tucson. The tilt, he says, could be
once thought to host one of the first planets outside of our the result of undiscovered planets stirring up rocky debris.
solar system to be photographed (SN: 12/6/08, p. 5). However, The image also turned up a faint smudge that the team calls
follow-up observations suggested that the planet — dubbed the Great Dust Cloud (at the 4 o’clock position of the outer
Dagon — doesn’t actually exist (SN: 2/25/12, p. 12). ring). It’s not yet clear whether it’s a real feature in the ring or
In the new image, Fomalhaut is blacked out. An inner disk of some bright object like a galaxy shining through from beyond.
dust plus two rings encircle the star, astronomer András Gáspár As for the putative planet Dagon, the image adds to growing
and colleagues report May 8 in Nature Astronomy. The diameter evidence that it’s actually a fading, expanding cloud of dust,
of the previously imaged outer ring is roughly five times that of possibly from a collision of other planets. There is no sign of
Neptune’s orbit. The inner ring had never been seen before. Dagon at its expected location. — James R. Riordon
COLORADO ROCKS!
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