Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

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Groundwater for Sustainable Development

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gsd

Research paper

Advancing groundwater vulnerability assessment in Bangladesh: a

comprehensive machine learning approach
Saima Sekander Raisa , Showmitra Kumar Sarkar *, Md. Ashhab Sadiq
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• The objective was to find groundwater

vulnerability zones in Bangladesh.
• 21 factors distributed across four cate­
gories (i.e., topography, meteorology,
socio-economic, and Land use & geol­
ogy) were employed.
• The Random Forest algorithm was
applied to assess factors’ importance for
groundwater vulnerability.
• Over 50% of Bangladesh’s land area,
comprising 26% moderate vulnerability,
22% high vulnerability, and 12% very
high vulnerability, was identified as
susceptible.
• The study offers vital insights for Ban­
gladesh’s groundwater management.

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In response to Bangladesh’s severe water shortages, this research delves into the intricate dynamics of
Groundwater groundwater vulnerability. Integrating often-overlooked factors such as topography, meteorology, socio-
Machine learning economic conditions, and land use & geology, the study employs advanced Random Forest (RF) modeling.
Random forest
Rigorously analyzing 200 strategically chosen sample points, the research uncovers critical areas like Rajshahi,
GIS
Bangladesh
Nawabganj, Naogaon, and Dhaka, constituting 21% of the land, as highly vulnerable. In contrast, regions like
Rangpur, Mymensingh, and Barisal, encompassing 31% of the area, exhibit lower vulnerability. Topographic
factors, accounting for 45% of the vulnerability, including aspect, drainage density, and slope, significantly
influence susceptibility. Socio-economic elements contribute 22%, particularly population density and industrial
activities. The RF model achieves exceptional accuracy (over 90%), emphasizing the complexity of groundwater
dynamics. By integrating geological, social, and economic aspects, the study provides actionable insights for
nuanced and sustainable management strategies. This research not only unveils a highly accurate groundwater
vulnerability map, enriching scientific understanding, but also offers a unique approach by incorporating often-
overlooked variables and leveraging machine learning. These insights empower policymakers and urban plan­
ners to craft targeted and sustainable groundwater management strategies, ensuring a resilient water supply

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: saimasraisa57@gmail.com (S.S. Raisa), mail4dhrubo@gmail.com (S.K. Sarkar), sadiq.kuet.urp@gmail.com (Md.A. Sadiq).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2024.101128
Received 23 July 2023; Received in revised form 21 January 2024; Accepted 19 February 2024
Available online 2 March 2024
2352-801X/© 2024 Published by Elsevier B.V.
S.S. Raisa et al.
system for Bangladesh’s growing population. Through this work, the aim is to significantly contribute to the
scientific community while providing data-driven solutions for the nation’s pressing water challenges.
1. Introduction
The ultimate objective of groundwater vulnerability (GWV assess­
ment is sustainable groundwater management, and GWV assessment has
been shown to play a key part in actually accomplishing sustainable
groundwater management (Collin and Melloul, 2003; Xiong et al.,
2022). The dependable and cost-effective provision of potable water
supply in both urban and rural settings is of utmost importance, and
groundwater is a vital natural resource in this regard. Its significance lies
not only in maintaining human well-being but also in sustaining some
aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, groundwater constitutes
approximately 34% of the total annual water supply and serves as a
significant source of freshwater in the world (Magesh et al., 2012). The
dependence of tropical regions on groundwater to meet the escalating
demands of households, industries, and agriculture for water is expected
to witness a significant upsurge in the coming decades (Jasechko and
Taylor, 2015; Jena et al., 2021). According to recent studies, two-thirds
of the world’s population experience water scarcity for one month each
year (Verma and Patel, 2021). In recent years, water scarcity and
deteriorating water quality have become substantial global challenges
(Kumar et al., 2011). Bangladesh, a country with many rivers and wa­
tersheds, occasionally has an acute shortage of drinking water. Despite
having a huge number of rivers, canals, and ponds, a big section of the
ecosystems in the southwest coastal region depends on supply water for
drinking (Nahin et al., 2020). Increased regional climate variability and
extreme occurrences, such as more intense floods, droughts, and storms,
are all having a negative effect on Bangladesh as a result of climate
change (Hasan et al., 2020). However, the country experiences a severe
water shortage year-round, particularly during the dry season, because
of factors such as excessive groundwater pumping, unmanaged surface
water pollution, the effects of climate change-induced disasters, and
saline intrusion (Abedin et al., 2019; Hadi, 2019; Sarkar et al., 2022a).
Since groundwater is the primary source of water in Bangladesh, the
country would encounter complex difficulties in providing clean water
to all of its population (Hadi, 2019). Maintaining groundwater quality is
essential for preserving drinking water supplies, particularly since there
are millions of people suffering from water shortages or lack of access to
clean water worldwide (Baalousha, 2010; Jesiya and Gopinath, 2019).
For a healthy and prosperous existence, it is crucial to have access to a
safe, reliable, economical, and easily available water supply (Abedin
et al., 2019). And to achieve this goal, it is crucial to locate the
groundwater vulnerable regions of Bangladesh. Groundwater vulnera­
bility, a pivotal concept in hydrogeology, delineates the degree to which
groundwater sources are susceptible to contamination and depletion
based on diverse environmental factors (Yankey et al., 2021). This
vulnerability is comprehensively assessed through the meticulous
consideration of various elements, broadly categorized into four distinct
groups: topography, meteorology, socio-economic factors, and land use
& geology. The topography category collectively shapes the topo­
graphical landscape and subsequently impact groundwater dynamics
(Talukdar et al., 2022). Meteorological factors play a pivotal role in
vulnerability assessments. These factors elucidate the intricate rela­
tionship between atmospheric conditions and groundwater susceptibil­
ity (Monir et al., 2022). The socio-economic category delves into
human-driven aspects (Reshma and Sindhu, 2019). Accessibility to
groundwater water, population density, and emerging industries reflect
the socio-economic landscape (Karimi et al., 2022; Roy et al., 2008).
These factors capture the demands placed on groundwater due to human
settlement patterns, industrial activities, and water infrastructure
availability (Chukwuma et al., 2023; Ercumen et al., 2015; Poškus et al.,
2021). And the land use and geological categories elements are able to
2
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
provide invaluable insights into the geological composition and land
usage patterns, delineating areas where groundwater vulnerability is
exacerbated (Nayyeri et al., 2021). In essence, the concept of ground­
water vulnerability, when analyzed through the intricate interplay of
these diverse factors, offers a holistic understanding of the intricate
dynamics shaping the groundwater landscape and helps to identify the
source and zone of groundwater vulnerability (Javadi et al., 2011).
In previous studies groundwater vulnerability has been measured in
many different techniques. Such as DRASTIC method (Bera et al., 2022;
Hasan et al., 2019; Nahin et al., 2020; Rahman et al., 2021), Customized
fuzzyAHP and DRASTIC-L method (Jesiya and Gopinath, 2019; Sresto
et al., 2022), non-geostatistical IDW interpolation method (Rahman and
Alam, 2020), The Aquifer Vulnerability Index (AVl) Method (Van
Stempvoort et al., 1993), GALDIT Method (Hasan et al., 2020), SINTACS
model, EPIK model and Hazard-pathway-target model (Kumar et al.,
2015). However, the methodology of this study has many new per­
spectives and aspects than the previous studies. Among these models
DRASTIC is the mostly used and popular one. The DRASTIC model is a
widely used method for assessing groundwater vulnerability. It con­
siders seven factors: Depth to the water table, Recharge, Aquifer media,
Soil media, Topography, Impact of the vadose zone, and Conductivity of
the aquifer. Each factor is assigned a rating, and the ratings are com­
bined to calculate an overall vulnerability index (Yankey et al., 2021).
One the other hand, this groundwater vulnerability assessment model
considers four categories: topography, meteorology, socio-economy,
and land use & geology. Each category likely includes multiple vari­
ables or parameters specific to this research. This model appears to be a
more complex and comprehensive approach. It involves a multi-criteria
analysis using machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest
(RF), to determine the relative importance of these factors. The
DRASTIC model relies on various data sources, including well depth
data, land use and land cover data, soil data, and hydrogeological data
(Bera et al., 2022). These data sources can be quite extensive and may
require significant effort to collect and process, but the proposed model
appears to use data from multiple sources and categories to assess
groundwater vulnerability. The specific variables and data sources used
would depend on this research design. DRASTIC primarily focuses on
geological and hydrogeological factors, such as aquifer type and depth
to groundwater (Javadi et al., 2011) but this model considers a broader
range of factors, including topography, meteorology, socio-economic
conditions, land use, and geological characteristics. This comprehen­
sive approach likely provides a more detailed and nuanced assessment of
groundwater vulnerability. In the proposed model Random Forest (RF) a
machine learning model has been used to assess groundwater vulnera­
bility. RF is a machine learning algorithm that can handle complex,
nonlinear relationships in the data (Sarkar et al., 2022b). It allows for a
more data-driven approach compared to deterministic models like
DRASTIC. Perhaps, The DRASTIC model has been oversimplifying
complex groundwater systems and not accounting for temporal changes.
It assumes that the factors do not change over time, which may not
reflect the dynamic nature of groundwater systems. Machine learning
models like RF can capture intricate patterns and relationships in the
data, potentially leading to more accurate vulnerability assessments.
They can also adapt to changing conditions if trained on updated data
(Talukdar et al., 2022). The DRASTIC model typically provides a
vulnerability index or score for a given area, indicating the relative risk
of contamination but this model likely produces a more detailed output,
possibly including maps that show groundwater vulnerability at a finer
spatial resolution, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of
the distribution of vulnerability across a region. DRASTIC is a simpler,
rule-based model but this model appears to be more complex than
S.S. Raisa et al.
DRASTIC due to the inclusion of multiple categories and the use of
machine learning. DRASTIC assumes static conditions on the other hand
this model may be better suited to capturing dynamic changes in
groundwater vulnerability over time. Machine learning models like RF
can potentially offer higher accuracy if trained on representative and
high-quality data (Kumar Sarkar et al., 2022). However, they also
require careful data preprocessing and validation. In this study, a novel
perspective was employed to assess groundwater vulnerability. This
research demonstrated the significant impact of topographic, meteoro­
logical, socio-economic, and geological & land use parameters on
groundwater resources. While established models like DRASTIC have
historically highlighted factors such as water depth, recharge rates,
aquifer media, soil properties, topography, vadose zone effects, and
conductivity, this study delved deeper. But some previous research
indicated that DRASTIC parameters alone might not always yield precise
results. Hence, various modifications, including Pesticide DRASTIC,
modified DRASTIC, modified Pesticide DRASTIC, and Susceptibility
Index (SI), have been proposed to enhance accuracy (Brindha and
Elango, 2015). In this research, an effort was made to assess ground­
water vulnerability using previously overlooked parameters. The rele­
vance and impact of topographic (Fatema et al., 2023), meteorological
(Monir et al., 2022), socio-economic (Chandnani et al., 2022), and
geological & land use (Priya et al., 2022) factors on groundwater have
been substantiated by existing literature in the field. This study thus
contributes to the broader understanding of groundwater vulnerability,
incorporating comprehensive parameters that enrich the existing
knowledge base. Prior research in groundwater assessment commonly
employed the DRASTIC model alongside techniques like the weighted
overlay method. Weighting methods such as AHP, Fuzzy-AHP, and
similar approaches were typically utilized (Brindha and Elango, 2015;
Machiwal et al., 2018; Priya et al., 2022). In contrast, this study utilized
an innovative approach by determining factor importance through the
RF classifier, an AI-based process. The trend toward AI-based method­
ologies is growing due to their superior accuracy, making them
increasingly favored (Machiwal et al., 2018). Particularly concerning
relative importance, raster calculation has proven to be more compat­
ible than weighted overlay, ensuring higher accuracy levels (Sadiq et al.,
2023). Machine learning stands as a dependable approach, serving not
merely in the identification of present states but also exhibiting the
capability to predict future conditions accurately (Mozaffari et al.,
2022). Consequently, this study has integrated these advanced weight­
ing and mapping methods to enhance the precision of the results.
Nevertheless, it is accurate that direct utilization of raster calculation in
groundwater vulnerability (GWV) assessment is infrequent. However,
this methodology has been previously employed to delineate zones with
high groundwater potential in prior studies (Sarkar et al., 2022a). Be­
sides, groundwater vulnerability mapping have been done previously
only for a particular district or region of Bangladesh (Abedin et al., 2019;
Hasan et al., 2019; Hasan et al., 2020; Kumar et al., 2011; Nahin et al.,
2020; Rahman et al., 2021; Rahman and Alam, 2020; Sresto et al.,
2022). But in this study for the first time the groundwater vulnerability
map of entire Bangladesh has been generated.
In earlier studies the common factors that have used to measure
groundwater vulnerability are depth to groundwater level, topography,
soil media, net recharge, aquifer media, vadose zone media, hydraulic
conductivity, land use, water use, thickness of aquitard cover and so on
(Xiong et al., 2022). But the uniqueness of this study is the factors are
classified under four different categories. There are seven factors in
topography category which are aspect, drainage density, slope, rough­
ness, curvature, TWI and TPI. In the category of meteorology rainfall,
relative humidity, drought and LST these four factors have been
considered. Access to tap water, access to tube well water, population
density and number of industries are the factors of socio-economic
category. Prior research has unequivocally demonstrated the signifi­
cant impact of socio-economic factors on groundwater dynamics
(Chukwuma et al., 2023; Karimi et al., 2022; Reshma and Sindhu, 2019;
3
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
Roy et al., 2008). Globally recognized as a vital resource essential for
human sustenance and economic advancement, groundwater, unfortu­
nately, often falls victim to misuse and inadequate management prac­
tices (Reshma and Sindhu, 2019). This mismanagement inherently leads
to GWV. With escalating population densities and rapid industrializa­
tion, the demand for groundwater has surged considerably. Conse­
quently, the present populace resorts to groundwater extraction through
both legal and illicit means, primarily via tap connections or tube wells,
to meet these escalating demands. The mounting demands of industrial
sectors have further exacerbated the situation, leading to the
over-exploitation and contamination of groundwater resources (Nayyeri
et al., 2021). These socio-economic triggers are undeniably driving
factors behind the degradation of groundwater quality, consequently
intensifying GWV. Remarkably, these particular sources of vulnerability
have historically been overlooked, lacking due consideration and mea­
surement as potential threats. Given the evident repercussions of these
silent socio-economic factors on groundwater vulnerability, it is
imperative to acknowledge and incorporate them into the assessment
framework. For this, population density (Roy et al., 2008), access to tap
water (Poškus et al., 2021), access to tube well (Ercumen et al., 2015)
and number of industries (Chukwuma et al., 2023) has been considered
as socio-economic factors. Addressing this critical gap is of paramount
importance at this juncture, allowing for the identification of precise
vulnerabilities at their source and enabling strategic intervention mea­
sures. And lastly, land use and geological category there are six factors,
which are geology, geomorphology, general soil type, lineament den­
sity, depth to water level and LULC (Sarkar et al., 2022a). This study
aims to identify the areas which’s groundwaters are in vulnerable con­
dition. Along with these the causes behind groundwater vulnerability
has been classified into four different categories to investigate how each
category affect groundwater and which category affect which region the
most. The four category is topography, meteorology, socio-economic
and land use & geology. To identify the groundwater vulnerability
map of each category, map of all factors has been generated. 200 sample
points has been taken and data has been extracted by the points (Sarkar
et al., 2022a). After that all the data has been send for indices calculation
and data has been scaled, factors have been reclassified and their rela­
tive importance has been measured by the RF model. Finally, by the
raster calculator the categorical groundwater vulnerability map has
been generated. In order to take preventative measures against
groundwater vulnerability, this study aims to pinpoint the areas of
Bangladesh most at risk and the underlying causes of this risk. The
vulnerability of groundwater can be easily reduced if the problematic
zone is identified by categorical analysis. Here, one thing must be un­
derstood that, this study’s selection of factors for groundwater vulner­
ability assessment signifies a comprehensive approach, encompassing
not only contamination-induced vulnerabilities but also addressing
broader issues such as urbanization (Roy et al., 2008), climate change
and environmental pollution (Monir et al., 2022, 2023), excessive
groundwater and soil exploitation (Karimi et al., 2022; Monir et al.,
2022), and surface water pollution. The incorporation of topographic,
meteorological, socio-economic, and geological & land use factors al­
lows for a holistic evaluation of the multifaceted sources contributing to
groundwater vulnerability. By discerning the origins and underlying
causes of vulnerability, proactive mitigation strategies can be devised
(Machiwal et al., 2018). Identifying these sources enables the imple­
mentation of targeted measures, thereby reducing groundwater
vulnerability effectively (Machiwal et al., 2018).
The groundwater vulnerability study for Bangladesh is crucial due to
its multifaceted impact on public health, agriculture, and economic
stability. This study aims to address the critical gaps in understanding
the intricate factors influencing groundwater vulnerability. By investi­
gating topography, meteorology, socio-economic factors, and land use &
geology, this research provides a nuanced analysis, shedding light on the
diverse aspects contributing to groundwater vulnerability. Policymakers
and urban planners can use this information to build a more efficient
S.S. Raisa et al.
water distribution system throughout the country. The main objective of
the study is (1) utilizing the Random Forest (RF) classifier, this study
aims to comprehensively examine the current state of groundwater pa­
rameters, employing machine learning to discern intricate patterns
within the data., (2) employing GIS and machine learning techniques,
particularly RF, this research seeks to assess groundwater vulnerability
across four distinct categories: topography, meteorology, socio-
economic, and geological & land use, (3) to prepare a combined
groundwater vulnerability map for Bangladesh based on four categorical
groundwater vulnerability.
2. Methods and materials
2.1. Description of the study area
In this study, Bangladesh has been chosen as the study area (Fig. 1).
The country is situated in the Ganges (Padma) River delta, a wide plain
that borders the Bay of Bengal. There are a total of 143,998 square ki­
lometers of land in the country. Bangladesh is one of the most populous
countries in the world, with an estimated 171 million people spread
among its 8 divisions and 64 districts. Bangladesh is a small country, yet
it has a rich and varied landscape. Its character is constantly shifting
whereas travel from north to south or east to west. The first would as­
sume that Bangladesh does not have a water crisis or other water-related
Fig. 1. Study area.
4
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
issues because it is a riverine country. But the reality is that our reliance
on groundwater has escalated to an unsustainable level because of water
pollution, severe urbanization, global warming, salt intrusion, defores­
tation, erosion, and many other climatic challenges. As a result, the
precariousness of Bangladesh’s groundwater has been identified as a
major issue right now. In different regional location groundwater
vulnerability has been found for different causes.
GWV has been detected for salinity in coastal areas such as Satkhira
(Abedin et al., 2019), Khulna (Sresto et al., 2022), and Bagerhat (Nahin
et al., 2020). This region’s groundwater is vulnerable due to its peculiar
soil composition and geology. The Geology and geographical state of
Chittagong’s hill tracks make them just as susceptible to this vulnera­
bility. In terms of topography, the north is similarly exposed to GWV. A
shallow unconfined aquifer provides substantial groundwater resources
over the region (Faisal Anwar and Yunus, 2013). Some districts in the
Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions have been identified as vulnerable zone
from the Barind tract due to their topography and meteorological
characteristics. Water keeps the economy running smoothly and protects
the country’s natural resources and people’s way of life. The water in­
dustry in Bangladesh is facing serious challenges at the moment, espe­
cially as a result of climate change’s effects (Hadi, 2019). The Dhaka,
Khulna, Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions are particularly vulnerable to
the effects of meteorology. GWV is a socioeconomic issue in Dhaka,
Narayanganj, Narshingdi and Comilla. Groundwater in this region is
S.S. Raisa et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

particularly at risk due to rapid urbanization and population increase. Table 1

Therefore, Bangladesh has been studied in order to pinpoint the Variable description of topographic factors.
vulnerable areas and understand the causes of the country’s overall Category Factors Unit Influence Source
GWV. on GWV

Topographic Slope Degree Positive NASA

2.2. Description of data Factors (+) (SRTM)
Roughness Millimeters Negative
(mm) (− )
2.2.1. Sample points
Curvature Radians/ Positive
In the study area, we meticulously selected 200 sample points across Meter (+)
Bangladesh for a comprehensive groundwater vulnerability assessment. Drainage Density Km/SqKm Positive
The selection process was informed by a prior study (Sarkar et al., (+)
2022a) that aimed to identify potential groundwater zones. The binary Topographic – Positive
Wetness Index (+)
format of the data obtained from these points, where 1 signifies
(TWI)
vulnerability presence and 0 indicates absence, is a common represen­ Topographic – Positive
tation in groundwater analysis (Izady et al., 2014; Sarkar et al., 2022b). Position Index (+)
Fig. 1 illustrates these point values, extracted and used as the dependent (TPI)
Aspect Degree Negative
variable in our study. The selection of these 200 sample points involved
(− )
several iterations and trial-and-error approaches, ensuring strategic Meteorological Rainfall Millimeter Negative BARC
placement across diverse geological, topographical, and socio-economic Factors (mm) (− )
conditions. It is crucial to note that this sample size was not arbitrarily Relative Percentage Negative
chosen but based on a thorough consideration of statistical principles Humidity (%) (− )
Drought Positive
and the spatial distribution of groundwater characteristics. The goal was
–
(Standardized (+)
to capture inherent variability within the study area without introducing Precipitation
redundancies that could compromise the model’s accuracy. The Random Index)
Forest (RF) model, a cornerstone of our methodology, excels in Land Surface Degree Positive NASA
Temperature Celsius (+) (MODIS)
discerning patterns and relationships within well-curated datasets.
(LST)
Through extensive experimentation, the 200-sample strategy consis­ Land-use and Geology – – GSB
tently demonstrated superior performance in providing a nuanced un­ Geological Morphology – –
derstanding of groundwater vulnerability. While we acknowledge the Factors Lineament Km/SqKm Positive
importance of external validation, our internal validation procedures, density (+)
Depth of Meter Positive
combined with the strategic sample selection, instill confidence in the
Groundwater (+)
reliability of our findings. It’s important to address the request for level
additional details on the 200 points considered. The selection process Soil Type – – BARC
involved rigorous testing to ensure optimal and representative results. Land Use Land – – NASA
The strategic placement of these points, guided by previous studies Cover (LULC) (Sentinel
2)
identifying potential groundwater zones, contributes to the study’s Socio-economic Population Per SqKm Positive BBS
comprehensiveness. We emphasize that the choice of 200 sample points Factors Density (+)
was rooted in both methodological rigor and practical efficiency, Access to tap Percentage Positive
avoiding redundancies to maintain the model’s accuracy. We remain water (%) (+)
Access to tube Percentage Positive
open to exploring external validation based on additional data sources,
well (%) (+)
recognizing the significance of robust methodologies in groundwater Number of Count Positive
assessment. This approach underscores the suitability of the chosen industries (+)
sample size for achieving the objectives of our study.

2.2.2. Topographical factors
In the topographic category, a total of seven factors have been
selected to assess topographic GWV. These seven factors have been
derived from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) sourced from the
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), a dataset provided by
NASA. The DEM has a spatial resolution of 90 m, and each factor has
been calculated using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques,
specifically within the ArcGIS software platform. It is important to note
that each of these topographic factors has a distinct influence on
groundwater, which may manifest either positively or negatively, and
the extent of their impact can vary from one geographical region to
another. For the sake of clarity and reference, a summary of all the
topographic factors, including their respective units of measurement,
data sources, and their specific influence on GWV, has been presented in
Table 1.
2.2.3. Meteorological factors
In this category, four factors have been selected to assess meteoro­
logical groundwater vulnerability (GWV). The first and second factors,
namely rainfall and relative humidity, have been derived from data
obtained from 35 rain-gauge stations operated by the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD) and made available through the
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC). To produce rainfall
distribution and relative humidity maps, the Inverse Distance Weighted
(IDW) method within the ArcGIS framework has been employed. This
technique has facilitated the extrapolation of values across the study
area, accounting for the spatial distribution of rainfall and relative hu­
midity. The IDW interpolation method, as defined by ESRI, has
computed cell values across the study area by synthesizing values from
nearby sample data points. This method has proven particularly effec­
tive when interpolating data in regions characterized by relatively flat
terrain (Maleika, 2020). It is worth noting that nearly all of the land in
Bangladesh falls within an elevation range of 10 m (Dewan et al., 2021)
rendering the substantial influence of elevation unnecessary during
interpolation (Islam et al., 2022). The selection of the power coefficient
and the number of neighbors for the IDW interpolation method has
presented challenges. This study has utilized a trial-and-error approach
to ascertain the optimal ‘n’ value. Following numerous iterations, a ‘2’
value has emerged as the most suitable choice, with the number of
neighbors set at ‘12’. In this category, the Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) serves as the drought index. SPI has been recommended as a
standard global meteorological drought indicator since the 2009 World
Meteorological Organization meeting (Park et al., 2016; Wardlow et al.,
2012). Specifically, the 3-month SPI for Bangladesh has been calculated

5
S.S. Raisa et al.
from rainfall data and visualized using the SPEI package within RStudio,
with ArcGIS employed for visualization. The final factor within this
category, Land Surface Temperature, has been derived from MODIS
(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite imagery,
specifically the MOD11A2 dataset with a 1000-m resolution. This data
has been obtained through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, and
ArcGIS has been used for visualization. It is essential to emphasize that
each factor within this category plays a critical role in GWV, exerting
both positive and negative effects on groundwater, which may vary from
one geographic area to another. While globally accepted datasets may
incorporate adjustments, decision has been taken to use Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD) interpolated data is rooted in the
necessity for a highly specific representation of local conditions. The
BMD dataset, capturing finer details, aligns closely with the diverse
meteorological nuances across Bangladesh, ensuring a more accurate
assessment. Regarding the degree of accuracy, BMD data is widely
recognized and utilized in regional studies, providing a reliable foun­
dation for this GWV assessment. The interpolation process is a standard
practice, and the dataset’s precision is in line with the requirements for
the localized analysis. Detailed information regarding the unit and
source of each factor has been presented in Table 1.
2.2.4. Lands use and geological factors
There are six factors that have been used in this category to assess the
land use and geological GWV. The initial four factors, specifically ge­
ology, morphology, lineament density, and depth of groundwater level,
have been assessed utilizing geological data sourced from the Geological
Survey of Bangladesh (GSB). These crucial geological attributes have
undergone comprehensive analysis and visualization using the ArcGIS
software. To construct the fifth factor, soil type information from the
BARC dataset has been incorporated into the study. This addition en­
hances the characterization of the subsurface properties that influence
groundwater dynamics. Finally, the sixth factor, Land Use and Land
Cover (LULC), has been generated using NASA’s Sentinel-2 imagery,
which provides a spatial resolution of 10 m. LULC classification in this
study encompasses four distinct classes: built-up areas, water bodies,
vegetation cover, and vacant land. The creation of the LULC dataset has
been facilitated through the GEE platform and subjected to further
assessment and analysis within the ArcGIS environment. These six fac­
tors within the land use and geological category assume paramount
importance in the context of GWV assessment, as they directly impact
groundwater levels and dynamics. For detailed information on each of
these factors, including associated data sources and attributes, Table 1
provides a comprehensive summary.
2.2.5. Socio-economic factors
The assessment of GWV has often overlooked the inclusion of social
and economic factors, despite their significant influence on the process.
In recognition of this reality, this study has introduced a dedicated
category termed ‘socio-economic’. Within this category, four distinct
socio-economic factors have been considered to comprehensively eval­
uate socio-economic GWV. Each of these four factors has been system­
atically constructed by harnessing data from all 64 districts of
Bangladesh, which was obtained from the Bangladesh Bureau of Sta­
tistics (BBS). Subsequently, these datasets have been seamlessly inte­
grated into the ArcGIS platform to facilitate in-depth analysis. This
analytical process has culminated in the creation of maps that vividly
depict the spatial distribution of each socio-economic factor. For a
comprehensive understanding of these factors, inclusive of their asso­
ciated data and attributes, please refer to Table 1.
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Machine learning approach – random forest (RF)
Many types of models like linear regressions, as well as other sta­
tistical methods, were generally used to analyze the correlation between
6
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
factors and condition of GWV. Because of their complexity, several
groundwater parameters and GWV conditions are difficult to correlate
using linear regression models. But lately, the exploration of water re­
sources has increasingly adopted modern techniques, with a particular
emphasis on the utilization of machine learning and innovative ap­
proaches and these novel machine learning methods often leverage
ensemble regression techniques (Norouzi and Moghaddam, 2020; Sar­
kar, 1997). Among them, there exists a machine learning approach
known as ‘Random Forest’, which falls under the category of methods
that employ fundamental algorithms for making multiple predictions
iteratively (Breiman, 2001). Random Forest (RF) stands as an ensemble
method that amalgamates multiple decision tree algorithms to itera­
tively produce predictions for various phenomena and also it possesses
the capacity to acquire an understanding of intricate patterns and ac­
count for the nonlinear associations that exist between explanatory
variables and their corresponding dependent variables (Norouzi and
Moghaddam, 2020). However, it is rarely used in water resources
studies and has not been reviewed thoroughly in this field (Rodri­
guez-Galiano et al., 2014). In this study, the RF model has been
employed to conduct the analysis where the model has generated the
importance of each factor used in this study. The implementation of this
model has been carried out using Python. Within the context of this
study, a trial-and-error approach has been utilized to identify the most
suitable parameters for the RF model, tailored to the specific re­
quirements of this investigation. In the realm of machine learning
research, various ratios for the training-test data split have been
explored, including divisions such as 80/20, 70/30, and 60/40 (Araya
et al., 2023; Sadiq et al., 2023). However, the 80/20 split, which des­
ignates 80% of the data for training and reserves 20% for testing, has
frequently been favored. This ratio has ensured an ample volume of data
for effective model training, alongside a substantial testing dataset,
thereby enabling the assessment of the model’s performance in scenarios
beyond its training data (Nay et al., 2018; Sadiq et al., 2023). Ultimately,
the 80/20 data split ratio has exhibited the highest level of accuracy.
Furthermore, through systematic and exhaustive trial-and-error exper­
imentation, the most optimal number of trees for this model has been
identified as 1000. The RF model parameters used in this investigation
are summarized in Table 2.
In the context of raster calculation, each factor undergoes a
weighting process, determined by the Random Forest (RF) method in
this study to ascertain their relative importance. This relative impor­
tance, obtained from the RF classification, is crucial for completing the
raster calculation process. It’s essential to clarify that the RF model here
is employed for measuring the relative importance of factors, not for
predicting Groundwater Vulnerability (GWV). The RF model is a clas­
sification tool and it possesses the capability to perform regression as
well. In this study, the emphasis was on its classification function, spe­
cifically in determining the significance of various factors within the
raster calculation procedure to portray existing GWV conditions. The RF
model contributes to factor classification, while the raster calculator
synthesizes this information into visually interpretable maps. The stra­
tegic use of both the RF model and raster calculator ensures the pro­
duction of detailed and accurate GWV maps, leveraging the strengths of
machine learning and GIS-based techniques. The RF model does not
predict GWV; rather, it enhances the classification of factors, and the
Table 2
Parameters of RF model.
Criteria Parameters
Model name Random Forest Classifier (RFC)
Training data 80% (Randomly selected)
Testing data 20% (Randomly selected)
Data selection method Out-of-Bag (OOB)
Number of trees 1000
Platform Spyder (Python 3.9)
S.S. Raisa et al.
raster calculator aids in visually representing the nuanced GWV infor­
mation. This synergistic approach serves the purpose of obtaining a
comprehensive and visually informative representation of GWV.
2.3.2. Validation and accuracy assessment of the RF model
ROC curves have been prepared and AUC will be calculated for the
verification and accuracy assessment. The ROC curve is constructed
based on true positive rate (sensitivity) corresponding to the false pos­
itive rate (1-specificity) with the various cutoff thresholds (Khosravi
et al., 2018). An AUC value equal to 1, on one hand, indicates a perfect
model, while an AUC value equal to 0 indicates a non-informative
model, on the other hand (Das and Chandra, 2020). In this study, vali­
dation has been done on two phases. On the first step, 4 ROC curve have
been generated to validate the four categorial analysis which are topo­
graphical, meteorological, land use & geological and socio-economical
GWV assessment. And their significance has been assessed by
observing the AUC. In second step, after merging the four-output raster
of categorial analysis another ROC curve has been generated for further
validation of the final output.
2.3.3. Analyses of the GWV factors
A total of 21 factors categorized under four distinct categories have
been employed as input parameters in this study. The assessment of the
relative importance of each factor has been accomplished by imple­
menting the RF model. Given the imperative need to amalgamate all
these factors within the four predefined categories to generate cate­
gorical GWV maps, the standardization of these factors has emerged as a
critical analytical step. This standardization process assumed signifi­
cance owing to the presence of factors characterized by varying units,
which had the potential to influence the overall blending procedure. By
adopting the standardization approach, a uniform range of values
spanning from 0 to 1 has been established for all indices, thereby
enhancing their comparability and suitability for consolidation. Each of
these factors exerts a varying influence on GWV, with some factors
positively affecting GWV while others contribute to negative impacts.
Consequently, a reclassification of all factors based on their influences
has been executed using the ‘Reclassify’ tool within the ArcGIS platform.
Within this study, a carefully selected sample of 200 points (Fig. 1) has
been deemed representative of the entire study area. Accordingly, the
values corresponding to the 21 factors have been systematically
extracted for each of these 200 sample points. This process has culmi­
nated in the creation of a comprehensive database, wherein the data
pertaining to these factors serve as the independent variables, while the
data associated with the 200 sample points’ GWV constitutes the
dependent variable. Subsequently, this dataset has been inputted into
the RF model, categorized by the respective domains of topography,
meteorology, land-use and geological, and lastly socio-economic. As a
result of these computational efforts, the RF model algorithm has suc­
cessfully generated an assessment of the relative importance of each
categorical variable, which is subsequently utilized as weights for each
respective factor.
2.3.4. Groundwater vulnerability map
This study culminates in five GWV maps, incorporating four cate­
gorical GWV outputs: topographical GWV, meteorological GWV, land-
use and geological GWV, and socio-economic GWV. The final GWV
map for Bangladesh results from integrating these four categories. For
each categorical GWV output, the RF model assesses the significance of
factors within that specific category. Specific weights are assigned to
these factors based on their importance. The amalgamation of these
factors is performed using the ‘Raster Calculator,’ a GIS tool, involving
multiplication by designated weights and subsequent combination with
other indices. This iterative process produces four categorical GWV
maps, each emphasizing the unique factors influencing groundwater
vulnerability within its category. Importantly, the RF model configura­
tion is tailored to the specific factors relevant to each category to ensure
7
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
optimization. Therefore, for topographical vulnerability, the model
considers topographical factors exclusively, without including meteo­
rological, socio-economic, or geological factors. This approach ensures
that each GWV map reflects the distinct influences of its respective
category. The uniform RF model configuration employed across all
vulnerability categories resulted from a comprehensive trial-and-error
optimization process. Through iterative experimentation, model pa­
rameters were systematically varied to determine the most effective
settings for the study. The chosen configuration consistently demon­
strated superior performance in capturing the complexity of each
vulnerability category. This streamlined approach aimed to ensure
methodological consistency and robustness across diverse vulnerability
contexts, enhancing predictive accuracy.
To create the final GWV map encompassing all four categories,
values from the categorical GWV outputs are extracted for each data
point. These values serve as independent variables in the database, while
the dependent variable remains consistent across iterations. The RF
model, configured for each category, determines the importance of
factors within its purview. The ‘Raster Calculator’ in ArcGIS combines
the four categorical outputs with their respective weights, producing the
comprehensive GWV map for Bangladesh. The classification of final
outputs into five classes (Table 3), facilitated by the Jenks method, offers
a clear presentation based on various GWV classes. All factors utilized in
this procedure have been standardized, resulting in maps with a uniform
format, where values range from 0 to 1. The GWV maps presented in this
study are the result of synthesizing 21 factors, each with its unique
resolution. It is important to note that the final resolution of the inte­
grated GWV maps may be influenced by the factor with the coarsest
resolution among the 21 contributing factors. This approach allows for a
comprehensive representation of various GWV influences while
considering the inherent resolutions of individual factors. A graphical
depiction of these processes is presented in Fig. 2, providing an overview
of the study’s methodologies.
3. Results
3.1. GWV factors
3.1.1. Topographic factors
After raster conversion, scaling, and reclassifying all seven factors
within the topography category (including slope, roughness, curvature,
drainage density, aspect, TWI, and TPI), the factors are now ready for
further calculations. The reclassified factors are depicted in Fig. 3. Slope
is a significant factor that must be considered in the assessment of
groundwater vulnerability. From Fig. 3 it is visible that, the slope
measurements in Bangladesh range from 56.49◦ to 0◦ . The map illus­
trates that the majority of the country, except for the southeastern part,
has almost no slope, indicated by a slope of 0◦ . In certain areas, a
yellowish hue can be observed, indicating slopes greater than 0◦ . The
southeastern division of Chittagong exhibits the most variation in slope,
with the districts of Bandarban and Rangamati displaying the highest
slope values. Roughness is another important factor in this regard. The
range of roughness values in Bangladesh spans from 0.11 to 0.89. Due to
the predominantly flat nature of Bangladesh’s terrain, the country does
not exhibit significant variation in roughness values. Thus, notable
Table 3
Groundwater vulnerability classification of the final
outputs.
Value GWV Class
0.00 to 0.27 Very Low
0.27 to 0.42 Low
0.42 to 0.56 Moderate
0.56 to 0.73 High
0.73 to 1.00 Very High
S.S. Raisa et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

Fig. 2. Methodological framework.

differences in roughness values are not found. The next significant factor country, with minimal variations observed except in a few locations.
to consider is aspect. The highest aspect value recorded in Bangladesh is Most of the country exhibits higher aspect values, while a few places
359.82◦ , while the lowest value descends to − 1. As Bangladesh is pre­ display lower values. Curvature plays a significant role in the assessment
dominantly flat, the aspect values remain relatively consistent across the of groundwater vulnerability. In Bangladesh, where flat land

8
S.S. Raisa et al.
Fig. 3. Topographic factors to determine GWV; (a) Slope, (b) Roughness, (c) Curvature, (d) Drainage Density, (e) Aspect, (f) TWI, (g) TPI.
predominates, the range of curvature values is not highly variable,
ranging from 15.66 to − 12.60. Given the country’s flat topography,
there is limited variation in the curvature values, which can be consid­
ered relatively uniform throughout the country. Drainage density is an
important factor for determining groundwater vulnerability. The high­
est drainage density value recorded is 1 km/sq km, while the lowest
value is 0 km/sq km. Some regions, such as the Rajshahi division, exhibit
considerably higher drainage density compared to others. Divisions like
Dhaka and Sylhet have drainage densities greater than the lowest value
but lower than the highest value observed. TPI is another significant
factor in understanding groundwater vulnerability. TPI values in
Bangladesh range from 770.653 to − 30.347. With the exception of the
hilly districts in the southeastern part of the country, the TPI values are
generally low throughout the entire country. The hilly districts of
Chittagong, such as Bandarban and Rangamati, exhibit mid to high-
range TPI values. TWI is another factor of importance. The highest
TWI value recorded is 27.43, while the lowest value is 2.73. Throughout
the country, except for the southeastern hilly region, the TWI values
remain relatively consistent. The values generally fall within the mid to
high range across the country. In the hilly division of Chittagong, the
TWI values are relatively lower than those observed in other parts of the
country, as indicated by the pale-yellow hue on the map. Interestingly,
there is a brown patch indicating a high-value topographic wetness
index area within this region, which primarily consists of lower TWI
values compared to the rest of the country.
3.1.2. Meteorological factors
All the factors have been reclassified before the final raster
9
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
calculation and running the factors into the RF model. Map of each
factor have been presented in Fig. 4. Rainfall: Rainfall is a crucial
element to consider when evaluating groundwater vulnerability. Rain­
fall measurements in Bangladesh range from 305.64 mm to 79.40 mm.
The map demonstrates that the highest amount of rainfall is observed in
the northeastern areas, particularly in the Sylhet division. The lowest
amount of rainfall can be found in the southwestern regions of the
country, predominantly in the districts of Khulna and the Barisal divi­
sion. Relative humidity is a key factor in assessing groundwater
vulnerability. The relative humidity ranges from 74% to 87%. The
lowest relative humidity is observed in the northwestern and central
parts of the country, slightly inclined towards the eastern part. The
northwestern region, characterized by the lowest relative humidity
values, encompasses the districts of Lalmonirhat and Rangpur, while the
central region includes the capital city, Dhaka. The highest relative
humidity values are found in the southern-central and southeastern
parts of the country, falling within the Barisal and Chittagong divisions.
The districts of Patuakhali, Bhola, Noakhali (Barisal), and Cox’s Bazar
(Chittagong) exhibit the highest relative humidity values. Drought is
another factor that needs to be considered. Its values range from very
dry to very wet, ranging from 1 to − 1, respectively. Sylhet and Barguna
fall into the category of very dry areas, while Coxs Bazar district is
characterized as very wet. The rest of the country showcases a mixed
level of drought. Neutral areas are indicated by yellow, very wet areas
are depicted in red, and very dry areas are represented in green. Tem­
perature is a vital variable to consider when assessing groundwater
vulnerability. Here, LST has been taken as temperature. The maximum
LST recorded in the country is 42 ◦ C, while the minimum temperature is
S.S. Raisa et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

Fig. 4. Meteorological factors to determine GWV; (a) Rainfall, (b) Relative Humidity, (c) Drought, (d) Land surface temperature.

10
S.S. Raisa et al.
19 ◦ C. High LST are observed in divisions such as Dhaka, Khulna, Bar­
isal, and Chittagong. Low LST are typically found in the divisions of
Sylhet and Rangpur. The map displays a mixture of temperature patterns
across the country.
3.1.3. Land use and geological factors
Similar to topographical and meteorological factors land use and
geological factor maps also have been prepared for further analysis.
Those are represented in Fig. 5. In this category most of the factors are
categorical data. Only depth to groundwater level and lineament density
come as raster output. So, in the case of rest of the 4 factors have to
determine which class response positively to GWV and which one
response negatively to GWV. And have to convert all these categorical
data to raster and then have to scale and reclassify the data according to
Fig. 5. Land Use & Geological Factors to determine GWV; (a) Geology, (b) Soil Type, (c) Depth of groundwater level, (d) Morphology (e) Lineament Density,
(f) LULC.
11
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
their effect on GWV. In Fig. 5 the first map illustrates the geological
aspects of Bangladesh, showcasing four distinct categories to delineate
the earth’s physical structure and substances: Alluvium, Pleistocene,
Miocene, and Pliocene. The Chittagong hilly tracts predominantly
exhibit the Pliocene condition, with Pleistocene characteristics also
observed in certain parts of Dhaka and Rajshahi. Miocene features are
noticeable in Chittagong, while the rest of Bangladesh is characterized
by Alluvium.
Bangladesh exhibits significant diversity in soil types. Common types
include Silt, Loam and Clay, Brown/Grey soil, and Clay and Silt. Regions
such as Chittagong, Khulna, Barisal, Mymensingh, and Rangpur possess
brown/grey soil. Silt, Loam, and Clay soils are predominantly found in
areas ranging from Rangpur to Chittagong, with Khulna and Barisal also
exhibiting these soil types. The remaining parts of Bangladesh are
S.S. Raisa et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

characterized by clay soil. The third map depicts the interpolation of
groundwater depth, ranging from 0.48 m to 66.52 m. The regions of
Khulna and Barisal display the greatest depth of groundwater, while
Dhaka and certain parts of Rajshahi have the lowest levels. However, in
close proximity to the areas with the lowest levels, a medium range of
groundwater depth is evident, as depicted on the map. Analyzing the
morphology of Bangladesh reveals diverse characteristics. The country
is traversed by rivers flowing from the north to the south, rendering it a
riverine nation. Some sections of Sylhet and most of Chittagong fall
within the categories of high/medium/low hilly regions. Throughout

Fig. 6. Socio-economic factors to determine GWV; (a) Population Density, (b) Access to tap water, (c) Access to tub well water, (d) Number of industries.

12
S.S. Raisa et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

the country, there are instances of basins, valleys, and ridges, although
extensive plains are relatively scarce. To illustrate the lineament density
in the country, a classification ranging from 0 to 2.55 km/sqkm is
employed.
The density rate is highest in the Khulna and Barisal regions, while
the rest of the country exhibits a relatively homogeneous condition with
lower density rates, as indicated on the map. Land use and land cover are
crucial aspects for spatial studies. In the following map, vegetation is
observed in limited areas, indicating sparse coverage. Scattered built-up
areas are visible sporadically, along with small patches of vacant land.
Bangladesh, with the exception of certain regions in Dhaka, Sylhet,
Khulna, and particularly Chittagong. However, Dhaka and Chittagong
face the most challenging conditions regarding tube well water avail­
ability and quality. The analysis of the number of industries across
Bangladesh is crucial, as depicted in the following map. Ranging from 40
to 2663 industries, the regions with the highest concentration of in­
dustries are undoubtedly Chittagong, Dhaka, and Rangpur. Moderate
numbers of industries are found in Dhaka, Rajshahi, and Khulna. The
remaining parts of the country have a relatively low number of
industries.

3.1.4. Socio-economic factors

3.2. Relative importance of the factors
Similar to topographical, meteorological and land use & geological
factors, socio-economic map also have been prepared for further anal­
In the initial phase, the RF model was executed four times, with the
ysis. Those are represented in Fig. 6. The population density of
same dependent variable: the binary point data depicted in Fig. 1.
Bangladesh is significantly high, with the highest density observed in
However, the independent variable was modified from one category to
Dhaka. In fact, Dhaka has the highest population density in the country.
another in each run. Within the topography category, all seven topo­
The range depicted on the map spans from 84 to 8135. As Dhaka exhibits
graphic factors were considered as independent variables. In the mete­
the highest density, its value is nearly equivalent to 8135. The popula­
orological category, four meteorological factors were selected as
tion density in the rest of the country ranges from medium to low. Access
independent variables. Similarly, within the socio-economic category,
to tap water is a crucial aspect to consider within the socio-economic
the independent variables consisted of population density, number of
factors. There are areas where the water supply and water quality are
industries, access to tap water, and access to tube wells. Lastly, within
inadequate. However, Dhaka boasts the highest rate of tap water
the land use & geology category, six factors were chosen as independent
availability, which is expected due to its high population density. Efforts
variables. The four output of RF model has been graphically represented
have been made to increase the water supply to meet the demand. Tube
in Fig. 7.
well water serves as a common water source in most cities throughout
In the second phase, RF model has been run one more time. Here, the

Fig. 7. Relative Importance of the factors.

13
S.S. Raisa et al.
dependent variable has been determined the same as the previous four
times but the independent variable has been changed. The output of four
categorical GWV raster has been determined as independent variable
here. The topographic, meteorological, socio-economic and Land use &
Geological output has been put in the RF model to identify the relative
importance.
Here, in the graph of topographic factors in Fig. 7(a), it is visible that,
among all the factors TPI has the highest relative importance which is
29.02% and curvature has the lowest relative importance which is
2.42%. After TPI slope and drainage density also have a significant
relative importance in this category. So, it can be seen that, these three
factors have a significant influence in the output of topographic GWV
assessment.
In the graph of meteorological factors in Fig. 7(b), it can be seen that
the relative importance of rainfall and humidity is higher than the other
two factors and almost equal to each other. Rainfall has the relative
impotence of 29.94% and relative humidity have 29.76%. And tem­
perature has the lowest influence which is 18.99%. This portray how
rainfall and humidity combinedly influence the meteorological GWV
assessment.
In Fig. 7(c), land use & geological factors soil type shows the highest
percentage of relative importance which is 31.34% and LULC shows the
lowest percentage which is 1.90%. Besides this lineament density and
geology also have a significant relative importance which is 27.28% and
25.82%. These three are the most influential factors in this categorical
GWV assessment. Lastly, in the graph of socio-economic category
(Fig. 7d), it is noticeable that the access to tube well has the highest
percentage of relative importance which is 39.77%. And the number of
industries has the lowest percentage of relative importance which is
9.08%. As the tube well water is directly connected to groundwater it
affects the GWV the most in this category.
Fig. 8 visually represents the relative importance of factors contrib­
uting to Bangladesh’s GWV map. Geology emerges as the most pivotal
category, boasting a substantial 50.82% relative importance. This un­
derscores its paramount role in delineating GWV patterns across the
country. Conversely, the socio-economic category exhibits the lowest
influence, accounting for only 10.09% of the overall GWV. Meanwhile,
topography and meteorology contribute moderately, with relative
importance percentages of 22.69% and 16.40%, respectively. The
prominence of the land use and geological category becomes evident,
commanding the highest relative importance. This prominence signifies
its profound impact on shaping the final GWV map of Bangladesh.
Consequently, the geological characteristics of the terrain and land
utilization practices play a pivotal role in determining the vulnerability
of groundwater resources throughout the nation. This graphical repre­
sentation serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, urban planners, and
water resource managers, offering insights into the factors exerting the
most influence on GWV. The identification of these influential categories
emphasizes the multidimensional nature of groundwater vulnerability
and underscores the importance of adopting a holistic approach to water
resource management in Bangladesh.
Fig. 8. Relative Importance of factors of groundwater vulnerability map.
14
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
3.3. Groundwater vulnerability
3.3.1. Topographical groundwater vulnerability
The provided map illustrates the groundwater vulnerability in
Bangladesh, considering various topographical factors (Fig. 9a). The
vulnerability assessment takes into account slope, roughness, curvature,
drainage density, aspect, topographic wetness index, and topographic
position index. To classify the vulnerability, the Jenk’s method is
employed, resulting in five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and
very high. Deep green represents areas with very low vulnerability,
while light green, yellow, orange, and red represent low, moderate,
high, and very high vulnerability, respectively. This color scheme en­
ables a comprehensive understanding of the groundwater situation at a
glance.
Upon examining the map, it becomes evident that the majority of the
country exhibits groundwater vulnerability ranging from moderate to
low, as indicated by the prevalence of light green, deep green, and
yellow hues. However, a few spots stand out with orange and red hues,
indicating regions with vulnerable and very vulnerable groundwater
conditions. The central, northwestern, and southeastern parts of the
country primarily fall into the high vulnerability and very high
vulnerability categories. Orange spots signify high vulnerability in di­
visions such as Dhaka, Rangpur, Rajshahi, and Chittagong. Chittagong is
the only division marked with very high vulnerability, denoted by the
presence of red markings.
The division of Chittagong, comprising hilly regions, exhibits both
very high vulnerability and high vulnerability of groundwater. Factors
contributing to this condition include water source scarcity, changing
local climate patterns, hill excavation, deforestation, and uncontrolled
jhum (traditional agriculture) cultivation. In regions characterized by
high vulnerability, different factors contribute to the condition. Dhaka
experiences high vulnerability due to increased water consumption,
pollution of water sources, filling up of water bodies, and adverse cli­
matic conditions. The regions of Rajshahi and Rangpur fall into the very
high vulnerability category due to their geographical location and the
impacts of climate change. The Barind tract in Rajshahi and Rangpur has
historically faced unfavorable groundwater conditions.
3.3.2. Meteorological groundwater vulnerability
The map presented in Fig. 9(b) depicts Bangladesh’s groundwater
vulnerability based on meteorological factors. Four criteria, namely
rainfall, relative humidity, drought, and temperature, are considered to
assess the fragility of the groundwater system. The calibration of the
map is categorized into five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and
very high vulnerability. Deep green represents areas with extremely low
vulnerability, while light green, yellow, orange, and red indicate low,
moderate, high, and very high vulnerability, respectively. This color
scheme facilitates a quick overview of the overall groundwater status.
Upon analyzing the map, areas with very high vulnerability are
observed in the central and western parts, particularly within the di­
visions of Rajshahi and Dhaka. The surrounding regions exhibit an or­
ange color, indicating high vulnerability. The yellow regions in the
southeast, northwest, and adjacent to the green areas reflect moderate
vulnerability. The northeastern and southern regions of the country
demonstrate low to very low vulnerability, represented by colors
ranging from light green to deep green. The divisions of Sylhet, certain
parts of Chittagong, and Barisal fall under the category of low to very
low vulnerability in terms of groundwater.
The graphic clearly illustrates a significant groundwater risk in the
Rajshahi and Dhaka divisions. Several factors contribute to the high
vulnerability observed in these areas. Dhaka, due to excessive water
consumption, increased contamination of water sources, filling of water
bodies, and severe climate conditions, experiences a state of high
vulnerability. Rajshahi, influenced by its geographical location and the
effects of climate change, falls into the category of extremely high
vulnerability. The Barind tract in Rajshahi has historically faced
S.S. Raisa et al.
Fig. 9. Categorical (a) topographical, (b) meteorological, (c) socio-economic, and (d) land use & geological groundwater vulnerability of Bangladesh.
unfavorable groundwater conditions. Conversely, Sylhet, Chittagong,
and Barisal, characterized by high rainfall, exhibit low to very low
vulnerability in terms of groundwater when considering meteorological
factors.
3.3.3. Socio-economic groundwater vulnerability
The map in Fig. 9(c) presents the socio-economic impact on
groundwater vulnerability in Bangladesh. To elucidate this critical
15
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
subject, the output raster has been divided into five distinct classes.
These classes encompass very low, low, moderate, high, and very high
vulnerability levels.
Across Bangladesh, varying levels of groundwater vulnerability can
be observed. Regions such as Chittagong, Rangpur, Sylhet, Barisal,
Dhaka, and Mymensingh exhibit a very low rate of GWV. Additionally,
areas encompassing Chittagong, Barisal, Khulna, Dhaka, Mymensingh,
and Rangpur show a low vulnerability rate. Throughout the country, a
S.S. Raisa et al.
diverse range of situations is apparent. Sylhet, Mymensingh, Khulna,
Barisal, and Rajshahi exhibit a medium level of vulnerability, while
Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Khulna, and Chittagong display a high
level of groundwater vulnerability. Furthermore, certain portions of
Dhaka and Chittagong experience very high vulnerability in terms of
groundwater.
It is important to note that the availability of groundwater does not
guarantee water quality. However, in most cases, water availability
enhances the quality of life. The map indicates that certain parts of the
capital city and Chittagong exhibit high groundwater vulnerability, with
visible signs of water pollution. Conversely, favorable conditions can be
observed in areas such as Chittagong, Barisal, Rangpur, Sylhet, and
other regions of the country. For a nation like Bangladesh, groundwater
vulnerability is an unavoidable problem. It is crucial to recognize that
water availability is not uniformly distributed across all areas of
Bangladesh.
3.3.4. Land use & geological groundwater vulnerability
This specific map delineates Groundwater Vulnerability based on
geological factors, creating a visually striking representation of the
Fig. 10. GWV map of Bangladesh.
16
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
diverse conditions across the country (Fig. 9d). The map classifies the
data into segments ranging from Very low to Very high vulnerability.
Primarily, the Rangpur region and certain parts of Khulna and
Chittagong exhibit a very low vulnerability rate. Conversely, a signifi­
cant portion of Chittagong, Khulna, Rajshahi, Dhaka, Mymensingh, and
Sylhet experience a very high rate of groundwater vulnerability. The
Barisal, Rajshahi district, and Sylhet regions demonstrate a moderate
level of groundwater vulnerability based on geological factors. Among
these, Sylhet, Rajshahi, and Chittagong have high vulnerability levels.
The geology of Khulna, Satkhira, and Bagerhat regions responds posi­
tively to groundwater vulnerability due to salinity. Excessive soil
contamination in the Dhaka region contributes to its very high vulner­
ability. Additionally, the Rajshahi region consistently has a lower
groundwater level, resulting in areas of high vulnerability. Moreover,
the geological aspects of the Chittagong hill tracts render the ground­
water highly vulnerable in that particular area. Conversely, the Rangpur
and Mymensingh divisions, along with the areas surrounding Comilla
and Chittagong districts, appear to have a minimal vulnerability to
groundwater.
Groundwater Vulnerability refers to the relative ease with which
S.S. Raisa et al.
pollutants, such as pesticides, placed on or near the ground surface can
migrate to the targeted aquifer under specific agronomic management
methods, chemical properties, and hydrogeological sensitivity condi­
tions. To improve this situation, measures can be taken to raise aware­
ness and combat soil pollution, which can have a substantial positive
impact on groundwater in the long run.
3.3.5. Groundwater vulnerability map of Bangladesh
The map in Fig. 10 represents the final outcome of the comprehen­
sive assessment, presenting the Groundwater Vulnerability (GWV) map
of Bangladesh. It is the amalgamated result of the previously generated
categorical GWV maps. The topographical, meteorological, socio-
economic, land use, and geological factors function as independent
variables, and their relative importance is considered in the raster
calculation, leading to the final output obtained from this extensive
process.
The GWV map provides a realistic overview of the groundwater
vulnerability condition in Bangladesh. The red color on the map in­
dicates areas with a highly vulnerable groundwater condition. Rajshahi
division, encompassing Rajshahi, Nawabganj, Naogaon, Jaipurhat,
Bogra, and Shirajgonj, is observed to be in a highly vulnerable condition.
Similarly, in the Dhaka division, Dhaka, Narayanganj, Gazipur, and
Tangail District exhibit a highly vulnerable state. Additionally, Jhenai­
dah, Rajbari, and Magura are also categorized as highly vulnerable.
Shatkhira in the Khulna division appears to be the most vulnerable.
Moreover, certain areas in the Chittagong hill tracts, including parts of
Khagrachari, Rangamati, and Bandarban, are highly vulnerable.
Conversely, most of Rangpur, Mymensingh, and Barisal Districts are
classified as having low vulnerability. Some parts of Sylhet and Chitta­
gong also fall within the low vulnerability category.
Identifying the reasons behind this diverse groundwater condition
Fig. 11. Area distribution of category wise GWV
17
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
within a relatively small area of Bangladesh becomes more accessible
with this comprehensive assessment. Since the four categories (Topog­
raphy, Meteorology, Socio-economy, and Land use & Geology) have
distinct causes contributing to the vulnerability of particular areas, it is
evident that the causes of groundwater vulnerability vary across
different locations. Therefore, preventive measures against GWV should
be tailored to each specific location. However, there are common zones
of extreme vulnerability observed in multiple categorical GWV assess­
ments, requiring additional attention to address the deteriorating situ­
ation. Overcoming this situation necessitates a comprehensive approach
involving the planning, policy-making, and monitoring sectors of the
administration. This study serves as a valuable resource in prevention
efforts by identifying problems and highlighting problematic areas.
3.3.6. Area percentage of groundwater vulnerability in define classes
The results of the four categorical tests were divided into five distinct
classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. These classes were
used to calculate the percentage of area represented in Fig. 11, where pie
charts were employed to illustrate the distribution of vulnerability
levels. When considering topographical factors, the chart revealed that
the low vulnerability class had the largest share, accounting for 37% of
the total area. Conversely, the very high vulnerability class had the
smallest share, representing only 2% of the area.
In the test conducted based on meteorological parameters, the
moderate vulnerability class had the highest percentage in the chart,
amounting to 29%. On the other hand, the very low vulnerability class
had the lowest share at 7%. Similarly, in the test considering socio-
economic parameters, the low vulnerability class had the largest per­
centage, comprising 36% of the area. Conversely, the very high
vulnerability class had the lowest share, accounting for only 5% of the
total area. In terms of the area percentage test, the moderate
S.S. Raisa et al.
vulnerability class had the highest value, reaching 29%, while the very
high vulnerability class had the lowest value at 12%. Each of these
classes, based on their unique factors, provided a distinct overview of
the overall situation and the corresponding share of the area.
After merging all the categorical outputs from the final GWV map of
Bangladesh, a comprehensive pie chart depicting the groundwater sit­
uation of the entire country has been obtained. This chart (Fig. 12),
divided into five divisions similar to the previous charts based on unique
classes with unique factors, represents the area percentage of different
GWV levels in Bangladesh. The divisions in the pie chart are as follows:
very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The respective areas have
been calculated for each class across the entire country. In this pie chart,
the highest percentage is attributed to the moderate GWV class, ac­
counting for 26%. The next highest value is for the low GWV class, with
a percentage only 2% lower than that of the moderate class, totaling
24%. Following that is the high GWV class, which comprises 22%, a 2%
decrease from the low GWV class. The least represented class is the very
high GWV category, occupying only 12% of the area. The second lowest
value belongs to the very low GWV class, constituting a mere 16%. This
distribution of groundwater vulnerability areas, obtained by merging
the outcomes of the four previous analyses, provides a comprehensive
overview of the overall groundwater vulnerability scenario in
Bangladesh. It is noteworthy that while extreme vulnerability is not
classified as very high, the percentage attributed to the high GWV class
appears substantial.
3.4. Accuracy assessment
3.4.1. Model validation through ROC curve
This study utilized the highly regarded Receiver Operating Charac­
teristic (ROC) curves, a gold standard in model validation. Each facet of
GWV assessment underwent intense scrutiny, affirming the reliability of
our methodology. For the topographic GWV assessment (Fig. 13a), the
ROC curve revealed an impressive Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of
0.78, translating to a substantial 78% validity for RF model in this
category. This robust performance underscores the model’s remarkable
accuracy in dissecting complex topographic factors, providing a
nuanced understanding of terrain-related vulnerability. Transitioning to
the meteorological GWV assessment (Fig. 13b), RF model exhibited a
commendable validity of 74% with an AUC value of 0.74. Despite the
intricate nature of meteorological variables, the model showcased a
significant level of precision. This accuracy is pivotal, considering the
intricate interplay of weather patterns and groundwater dynamics. In
the socio-economic GWV assessment (Fig. 13c), the RF model
Fig. 12. Area distribution of GWV of Bangladesh.
18
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
demonstrated a remarkable 83% validity (AUC = 0.83). This highlights
the model’s adeptness in unraveling the complexities of socio-economic
factors. Understanding these nuances is crucial, especially in gauging
vulnerability dynamics within communities, making the model a valu­
able tool for social impact analysis. Most notably, the land use &
geological GWV assessment (Fig. 13d) achieved an unparalleled 100%
validity (AUC = 1.00). This signifies an exceptional precision in evalu­
ating geological and land use factors, which are pivotal components in
the overall vulnerability analysis.
This flawless validation underscores the depth of our model’s un­
derstanding, making it an indispensable instrument in crafting precise
vulnerability maps. These outstanding results not only affirm the
robustness of our framework but also highlight its versatility in handling
diverse vulnerability categories. The impeccable 100% score in the land
use & geological assessment is a testament to the meticulousness of our
approach. The accuracy assessment of the final GWV of Bangladesh
(Fig. 14) ROC curve have also shows a significant result. AUC is 0.90
here which means this final output have 90% validity. This stringent
validation process solidifies the credibility of the findings, providing a
robust foundation for actionable policy recommendations and sustain­
able water resource management strategies in Bangladesh.
3.4.2. Accuracy assessment of RF model
Table 4 is presenting the model accuracy of the Random Forest (RF)
model in each test conducted. It is evident that the topographic GWV
assessment yields the lowest overall accuracy, which stands at 85%.
Furthermore, it exhibits the lowest out-of-bag (OOB) accuracy at 81%
and the lowest cross-validation accuracy at 80%. Conversely, the land
use & geological GWV assessment achieves the highest accuracy across
all three criteria, with an overall accuracy of 95%, an OOB accuracy of
98%, and a cross-validation accuracy of 99%. Thus, it is evident that the
model accuracy is highest for the land use & geological GWV assessment
and lowest for the topographic GWV assessment.
Regarding the final assessment of GWV in Bangladesh, the model
accuracy of the RF model is quite satisfactory. The overall accuracy
reaches 85%, the OOB accuracy is 89%, and the cross-validation result
stands at 91%. This accuracy assessment ensures the reliability of the
method, enabling the newly obtained data from this assessment to be
trustworthy and applicable for further evaluations.
4. Discussion
In this comprehensive groundwater vulnerability assessment of
Bangladesh, the amalgamation of topographical, meteorological, socio-
economic, land use, and geological factors has provided profound in­
sights into the intricate landscape of the country’s groundwater re­
sources. The utilization of a RF model, validated rigorously across
diverse vulnerability categories, has enhanced the reliability and
applicability of the vulnerability maps, empowering policymakers with
accurate data for informed decision-making.
The topographical vulnerability assessment, depicting the nation’s
vulnerability levels in distinct hues, reveals a predominantly low to
moderate vulnerability across Bangladesh. This signifies promising as­
pects for sustainable water management, with 37% of the area classified
as having low vulnerability. However, areas with high and very high
vulnerability, especially in urban centers like Dhaka and regions like
Chittagong and Rajshahi, demand immediate attention. Understanding
the unique challenges faced by these regions, such as rapid urbanization
and hilly terrains, is crucial. Conservation efforts, efficient waste man­
agement systems, and targeted water conservation practices emerge as
vital strategies. The meteorological vulnerability map adds another
layer of complexity to Bangladesh’s groundwater scenario. The preva­
lence of very high vulnerability areas in Dhaka and Rajshahi, influenced
by climate change impacts and excessive water consumption, un­
derscores the urgent need for adaptive policies. These policies should
encompass not only water conservation initiatives but also stringent
S.S. Raisa et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128

Fig. 13. Accuracy assessment of categorical GWV of Bangladesh.

Table 4
Model accuracy.
Category Accuracy OOB Cross Validation

Topographic GWV 85% 81% 80%

Land use & Geological GWV 95% 98% 99%
Meteorological GWV 86% 85% 82%
Socio-Economic GWV 86% 83% 81%
GWV of Bangladesh 85% 89% 91%

This table presents the model accuracy of the Random Forest (RF) model in each
test conducted. It is evident that the topographic GWV assessment yields the
lowest overall accuracy, which stands at 85%. Furthermore, it exhibits the
lowest out-of-bag (OOB) accuracy at 81% and the lowest cross-validation ac­
curacy at 80%. Conversely, the land use & geological GWV assessment achieves
the highest accuracy across all three criteria, with an overall accuracy of 95%, an
OOB accuracy of 98%, and a cross-validation accuracy of 99%. Thus, it is evident
that the model accuracy is highest for the land use & geological GWV assessment
and lowest for the topographic GWV assessment.

Fig. 14. Accuracy assessment of GWV map of Bangladesh.
regulations to curb pollution and sustainable urban planning practices.
Moreover, areas shaded in orange, indicating high vulnerability,
emphasize the importance of efficient water usage and pollution pre­
vention to prevent escalation to extreme vulnerability. Socio-economic
factors interweave with hydrogeological complexities, delineating a
varied vulnerability landscape. While regions like Chittagong, Sylhet,
and Mymensingh showcase commendably low vulnerability, pockets of
high and very high vulnerability in strategic regions like Rajshahi and
Rangpur raise alarm. The coexistence of water availability and quality
challenges in certain areas accentuates the complexity. Tailored policies,
community engagement, and technological innovations are imperative
to address these challenges effectively. Education and awareness cam­
paigns can play a pivotal role, especially in regions struggling with soil
contamination and pollution. The geological vulnerability assessment
sheds light on the intricate relationship between geology and vulnera­
bility. Protective geological attributes in Rangpur and parts of Khulna
present models for other regions, showcasing the resilience against
pollutant intrusion. However, areas like Dhaka and Chittagong grapple
with excessive soil contamination, emphasizing the immediate need for

19
S.S. Raisa et al.
soil remediation initiatives. Initiatives promoting sustainable agricul­
tural methods, watershed management, and afforestation can signifi­
cantly mitigate geological vulnerabilities.
The amalgamated GWV map, a culmination of diverse factors, offers
a nuanced perspective on Bangladesh’s groundwater situation. Regions
like Rajshahi, Dhaka, and Chittagong stand out as hotspots of vulnera­
bility, demanding urgent attention and targeted interventions. Notably,
the presence of localized low vulnerability areas offers hope, empha­
sizing the need to understand and implement the best practices pre­
vailing in these regions across the nation. This nuanced understanding
directs policymakers toward localized, tailored strategies rather than a
broad, generalized approach. The graphical representations, especially
the pie charts, provide succinct visual summaries, offering vital insights
into Bangladesh’s overall groundwater landscape. These visual aids are
invaluable tools for policymakers, guiding the allocation of resources
and the formulation of tailored policies. The validation results reinforce
the credibility of the RF model, providing a strong foundation for future
groundwater management studies not only in Bangladesh but also in
similar regions facing analogous challenges. The integrated results of the
four vulnerability categories present a nuanced groundwater vulnera­
bility scenario in Bangladesh. Notably, the moderate GWV class covers
the largest area, constituting 26%, followed closely by the low GWV
class at 24%. The high GWV class occupies 22%, while the very high
GWV category covers 12% of the total area. The least represented is the
very low GWV class, accounting for 16%. This distribution emphasizes
the prevalence of moderate and high vulnerability areas across the
country, with a lower representation of extreme vulnerability. Although
more than 50% of the areas falls under the risk of GWV in Bangladesh (i.
e., Very high, High, Moderate classes). The findings underscore the need
for targeted interventions to address specific vulnerability levels and
promote sustainable groundwater management.
A comparison has been conducted between the results obtained
through this research and the DRASTIC method for specific regions in
Bangladesh from previous research findings. In the Khulna district, the
DRASTIC method identified distinct vulnerability zones: the southern
region exhibited the lowest groundwater levels, while the northeastern
urban area faced high vulnerability due to increased saline surface water
intrusion (Sresto et al., 2022). Similarly, Bagerhat Sadar, Fakirhat, and
Rampal demonstrated 85.43% moderate vulnerability and highly
vulnerable urban pockets (Nahin et al., 2020). In Savar upazila of Dhaka
district, the study revealed 45% moderate and 21% high vulnerability,
with floodplain areas being highly susceptible (Hasan et al., 2019).
Comparatively, in this method for the entire Bangladesh, encompassing
diverse topographical, meteorological, socio-economic, and geological
factors, produced a comprehensive GWV map. This amalgamated map,
corroborated by localized studies, highlighted specific vulnerable zones
such as Rajshahi, Dhaka, and Khulna divisions, affirming the method’s
realism. Furthermore, the ultimate findings of this study align consis­
tently with the outcomes of the previous three individual research en­
deavors. Specifically, the research conducted in Khulna, as well as the
preceding studies, collectively indicate that the majority of the vulner­
able areas in the Khulna region fall within the moderate to high
vulnerability range. Similarly, in the case of Bagerhat, both studies
consistently identify the area as predominantly exhibiting a moderate
level of vulnerability. This synchronization in outcomes emphasizes the
robustness and reliability of the findings presented in this study, rein­
forcing the validity and academic significance of the research outcomes.
The integrated vulnerability analysis demonstrates the model’s
strong performance, with an 83% validity for socio-economic factors
and a remarkable 100% validity for land use & geological assessments.
The final GWV assessment for Bangladesh achieves a solid 90% validity.
These results affirm the model’s reliability and provide a credible
foundation for informing policy recommendations and sustainable
water resource management strategies in the country. The other three
accuracy assessment tools also highlight varying model accuracies
across GWV assessments. Topographic GWV exhibits the lowest overall
20
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 25 (2024) 101128
accuracy (85%), while land use & geological GWV excels with the
highest accuracy (95%). For the final Bangladesh GWV assessment, the
RF model achieves satisfactory accuracy: overall (85%), OOB (89%),
and cross-validation (91%). These results affirm the method’s reliability
and the trustworthiness of the obtained data for further evaluations.
The novelty of this study lies in its departure from prior generic
methods, presenting a comprehensive approach that considers multiple
parameters in assessing groundwater vulnerability. Unlike traditional
models such as DRASTIC, this method transcends geological factors,
incorporating topography, meteorology, socio-economic conditions,
and land use & geology. This nuanced approach enables a more realistic
representation of the complex interplay influencing groundwater dy­
namics. Notably, the study’s novelty lies in its comprehensive approach,
considering multiple parameters, a departure from prior generic
methods. It’s pertinent to note that the lack of nationwide DRASTIC
application is due to data constraints, emphasizing the study’s pio­
neering nature in the context of Bangladesh’s groundwater vulnerability
assessment.
In conclusion, this research provides a robust foundation for un­
derstanding and addressing Bangladesh’s groundwater vulnerability. By
recognizing the diverse challenges faced by different regions, policy­
makers can formulate targeted, adaptive strategies. The study empha­
sizes the need for continuous research, community involvement, and
interdisciplinary collaborations to ensure a sustainable and secure
groundwater future for Bangladesh. The lessons learned from this
research are not only pertinent for Bangladesh but also serve as a
valuable reference for other regions worldwide facing analogous
groundwater challenges.
5. Limitation
While offering crucial insights into groundwater vulnerability in
Bangladesh, this study acknowledges limitations impacting result
interpretation. The employed Random Forest (RF) model, though
robust, simplifies the intricate groundwater system dynamics. Future
studies may explore more sophisticated models for comprehensive un­
derstanding. The temporal scope, confined to a specific timeframe,
suggests a snapshot of vulnerability. Real-time data absence limits im­
mediate change capture, urging integration for future accuracy. Input
data resolution influences vulnerability map precision, emphasizing the
need for higher resolution data in diverse hydrogeological regions. The
study assumes stationary conditions, but future research should address
non-stationary influences for more dynamic assessments. These limita­
tions highlight avenues for future research, ensuring continuous
refinement of groundwater vulnerability assessments in Bangladesh.
6. Conclusion
This study illuminates essential facets of groundwater vulnerability
in Bangladesh, offering vital insights for sustainable water resource
management. The comprehensive assessment, spanning topography,
meteorology, socio-economy, and land use & geology, highlights spe­
cific high-risk regions. These findings provide a foundational basis for
targeted policymaking and resource allocation.
The validation of RF model through rigorous ROC curve analysis
bolsters the credibility of the methodology. High AUC values across
multiple categories affirm the model’s accuracy, pointing toward its
applicability in future studies. This validation underscores the impor­
tance of a multidimensional approach, capturing the nuanced interplay
of various factors in groundwater vulnerability. Crucially, the study
emphasizes the imperative of collaboration and multidisciplinary ef­
forts. Effective mitigation demands seamless coordination among
governmental bodies, local communities, researchers, and non-
governmental organizations. Initiating these partnerships is vital for
translating research insights into actionable policies. Beyond its aca­
demic contributions, this research lays the groundwork for pragmatic
S.S. Raisa et al.
interventions. By focusing on high-risk zones, policymakers can priori­
tize investments, implement protective measures, and establish robust
monitoring systems. Such proactive steps are fundamental in ensuring
the availability of clean, sustainable water resources, especially in re­
gions facing climate change-induced challenges, excessive groundwater
pumping, surface water pollution, and saline intrusion. In essence, this
study not only expands the knowledge frontier of groundwater vulner­
ability but also offers a roadmap for meaningful change. By leveraging
these findings, Bangladesh can navigate its water management chal­
lenges, fostering a future where water scarcity is mitigated, and every
citizen has access to safe, reliable drinking water.
Ethical approval
The authors declare no ethical approval required. Ethical approval
for this type of study is not required by our institute.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Saima Sekander Raisa: Writing – original draft, Visualization,
Software, Methodology, Formal analysis, Conceptualization. Showmi­
tra Kumar Sarkar: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Project
administration, Methodology, Data curation, Conceptualization. Md.
Ashhab Sadiq: Writing – review & editing, Visualization, Software,
Methodology, Formal analysis.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
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