2/10/23 Class notes

Key definitions
● Birth rate: the number of live births per 1000 of the population each year.
● Death rate: the number of deaths per 1000 of the population each year.
● Natural balance (increase of decrease): the difference between birth rates and death
rates.
● Fertility rates: the average number of babies born to a female over their lifetime.
● Infant mortality rates: the number of infant (before the age of one) deaths for every
1000 live births

The demographic transition model:

Stage 1 – The most primitive populations

● Lack of contraception leads to a high birth rate.
● Lack of healthcare and the prevalence of disease and conflict leads to a high death
rate.
● Families have more children due to high infant mortality rates.
● Families have more children to care for adults when they are older and assist in
subsistence farming practices.
● Lack of welfare, depend on children to provide and take care of parents in their older
age

Stage 2 – low-income countries

● The death rate drops as the country invests more in healthcare, reducing death rates
and infant mortality rates.
● Education improves, so there is more awareness of the importance of contraception.
● Culture and societal habits take time to change, so the preference to have more
children remains.
● This leads to population growth, as the birth date exceeds the death rate.
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Stage 3 – Newly emerging economy

● Families realise that less children provides a better quality of life for them (more
money to go around). Women pursued careers, married later, and therefore had less
children.
● Less prevalence of subsistence farming means less hands needed on the farm, if
farming at all.
● Advancing economies introduce welfare funding (pensions, retirement support),
meaning the young don’t need to look after the old (as much!).
● The population continues to grow, but at a slower rate.

Stage 4 – high income countries

● Different global and local events can impact birth and death rates.
● Conflicts (think Russia and Ukraine), disease (think COVID-19), or cultural shifts (think
baby boomers post WW2) means birth rates and death rates are rarely static.
● Birth rates and death rates remain low (despite minor fluctuations) and the
population growth plateaus.

Stage 5 – advanced economies

● Low birth rates lead to an ageing population which can have dramatic economic
consequences (older population are expensive!).
● Families realise that less children allows each child to receive more investment and
time. Government policies may be introduced to increase the birth rate.
● The death rate increases as a population becomes older.
● Populations in some cases can start to decrease

Limits of the model:

● The model is old, so is not representative of modern population changes.
● It does not account for migration, which has grown significantly in modern times.
● A new stage is needed to represent the prevalence of declining populations.
● Significant fluctuations caused by natural disasters are not represented.
● Government intervention is not obvious in the model, but significant in reality.
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Application of the Model – Task

 Your task now is to provide examples for each stage of the model.
 Within your example, you must try and prove your choices with evidence (birth rate,
death rate and population statistics are easy to find).
 Are there any additional limitations of the model based on your research?

Stage 1:
No official country in the world is currently in stage 1. There are some small communities
that are in stage 1, like some sub-Saharan Africa but not all.

Stage 2:
Characteristics:
 Birth rate: high
 Death rate: drops compared to stage 1
o Infant death rates: often high in stage 2
Example: Niger
2020
Birth rate: 45.6 (per 1000)
Death rate: 8.3
1990
Birth rate: 55.2 (per 1000)
Death rate: 24.1
Niger as of 2020 is in stage 2, as it has a high birth rate with a drop in the death rate

Stage 3:
Characteristics:
 Late expanding stage
 Birth rate: goes down compared to stage 2
 Death rate: stays low
 Population contains to grow but slower compared to stage 2
Example: Mexico
1990:
Birth rate: 29.3 (per 1000)
Death rate: 5.8
2020:
Birth rate: 15.6
Death rate: 9.3
In 1990 the birth rate was 29.3 it has decreased as of 2020 to 15.6 whilst the death rate has
stayed low
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Stage 4:
Characteristics:
 Birth rates: decrease
 Death rates: rise
 Population increase are at or close to zero
Example: United Kingdom
Birth rate: 10.1
Death rate: 10.1
Population increase: zero

Stage 5:
Characteristics:
 Birth rates: remain low
 Death rates: rise
 Populations start to decrease and the average age increases
Example: Japan
Birth rate: 6.6
Death rate: 12.1
Population decreasing

Niger Task
 Login in to Kerboodle using the activation link in your inbox. Save it to your
favourites.
 Create condensed notes on the Niger case study – P187.
Country HDI rank HDI value Physical Population Level of
environment parameters development
Switzerland 1 0.962 Temperate 8.703 M GNI: 66,933
(constant 2017
PPP$)
UK 18 0.929 temperate 67.33 M GNI: 45,225
(constant 2017
PPP$)
Japan 19 0.925 Sub-tropical 125.7 M GNI: 42,274
(constant 2017
PPP$)
Mexico 86 0.758 Tropical and 126.7 M GNI: 17,896
arid (constant 2017
PPP$)
Niger 189 0.400 Hot climate and 27.403 M GNI: 1,240
arid (constant 2017
PPP$)
 Complete the ‘stretch yourself’ activity on P187.