Escaping from Bad Decisions A

Behavioral Decision-Theoretic
Perspective. Kazuhisa Takemura
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Escaping From Bad Decisions

A Behavioral Decision-Theoretic
Perspective

Kazuhisa Takemura
Department of Psychology & Center for Decision Research, Waseda
University
Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

About the author

Preface

1. Introduction: Escaping from bad decisions

Abstract

1.1 The classical problem of bad decision-making and akrasia

1.2 Second-order desires and bad decisions

1.3 The perspective proposed in this book: avoiding bad

decision-making through prescriptive heuristics based on
scientific findings

1.4 An overview of the contents of this book and suggestion to

avoid bad decisions
 1.5 Conclusion and future perspectives

References

2. Formal definitions of the worst decisions, best decisions, and bad

decisions

Abstract

2.1 Framework to describe decision-making

2.2 Worst option, best option, and bad decision

2.3 Conditions for guaranteeing preference relations of the worst

and best options

2.4 Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of

worst and best options

2.5 Conclusion

References

3. Rational choice, irrational choice, and bad decisions

Abstract

3.1 Economic man and rational decision-making

3.2 Greatest element rationalizability

3.3 Maximal-element rationalizability

3.4 Conclusion

References
4. Preference ordering and measurement

Abstract

4.1 Understanding preference relationships through ordering

decisions and behavioral observations

4.2 Aspects of ordering decisions

4.3 What is the measurement of preference relations?

4.4 Quantitative representation of possible psychophysical laws

and preference relations in terms of scale levels

4.5 Conclusion

References

5. Rational preference, irrational preference, and revealed preference

Abstract

5.1 Rationality criteria and revealed preference

5.2 The concept of revealed preference

5.3 Utility functions and indifference curves

5.4 Revealed preference

5.5 Irrational choice and revealed preference

5.6 Revealed attention

5.7 Empirical testing of acyclic preference relations

5.8 Conclusion
 References

6. Multiattribute decision-making, multiobjective optimization, and

the additive conjoint system

Abstract

6.1 Plurality of values and multiattribute decision-making

6.2 Difficulties of multiattribute decision-making

6.3 Theoretical examination when multiattribute decision-making

does not satisfy weak order property of preference

6.4 Multiattribute decision-making and multioptimization

6.5 Additive conjoint structure and quasi best decision

6.6 Conclusion

References

7. A computer simulation of cognitive effort and the accuracy of two-

stage decision strategies in a multiattribute decision-making process

Abstract

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Findings and problems of previous research on decision

strategies

7.3 Purpose and methods of computer simulation 1

7.4 Results and discussion of computer simulation 1

7.5 Purpose and method of computer simulation 2

 7.6 Results and discussion of computer simulation 2

7.7 General discussion

7.8 Conclusions and problems of this study

References

8. A computer simulation of bad decisions and good decisions: an

extended analysis of two-stage decision strategies

Abstract

8.1 A comparison between additive strategy (WAD) and

lexicographic strategy (LEX) in multiattribute decision-making

8.2 Methodology of this study

8.3 Results and discussion of computer simulation

8.4 General discussions

8.5 Conclusion

References

9. A process tracing study of decision strategies and bad decisions

Abstract

9.1 Implementation of the additive decision strategy and bad

decision: a pilot study

9.2 How to examine the effect of a second-stage decision-

making strategy using process tracking on the bad decisions

9.3 Results and discussion of the experiment

 9.4 Conclusion

References

10. A process tracing study of bad decisions: using eye tracking in

food decision-making

Abstract

10.1 The problem of risky food decision-making and the

assumptions of this study

10.2 Method of the eye-tracking experiment

10.3 Results and discussion

10.4 Questionnaire survey

10.5 Conclusion

References

11. Decision strategies and bad group decision-making: a group

meeting experiment

Abstract

11.1 Group decision and groupthink

11.2 Method of the experiment

11.3 Results and discussion

11.4 Conclusion

References
12. An observational experiment in group decision-making: Can
people detect bad group decisions?

Abstract

12.1 Cognitive processes and groupthink in group decision-

making

12.2 Pilot Study 1

12.3 Pilot Study 2

12.4 Method of the experiment

12.5 Result of experiment

12.6 Discussion

12.7 Conclusion

References

13. Revisiting the group decision-making experiment

Abstract

13.1 Irrationality and bad decision-making in group decision-

making

13.2 Preliminary survey

13.3 Method for group decision-making experiment

13.4 Results

13.5 Discussion

13.6 Conclusion and future prospects

 References

14. The detection of bad decisions and a voting experiment

Abstract

14.1 Detection of bad group decision-making and groupthink

14.2 Method of Experiment 1

14.3 Results and discussion of Experiment 1

14.4 Method of Experiment 2

14.5 Results and discussion of Experiment 2

14.6 Conclusion and future prospects

References

15. Situation dependence of group and individual decision making

and bad decisions

Abstract

15.1 Decision-making strategies for individual decision-making

and group decision-making by majority rule

15.2 Consequences from Condorcet’s Jury Theorem

15.3 Group decision-making in the situations where

independence among group members is not ensured

15.4 Experimenton situation dependence of decision-making

and bad decisions

15.5 Conclusion
 References

16. The contingent focus model and bad decisions

Abstract

16.1 Situation dependence of decision-making and bad

decisions

16.2 Framing effect as situation-dependent preference reversal

16.3 Inadequacy of utility theory for explaining the framing effect

16.4 Prospect theory explains the framing effect and its problem

16.5 Concept of the contingent focus model

16.6 Formulation of contingent focus model

16.7 Representation theorem of contingent focus model

16.8 Conclusion and future perspective

References

17. An experiment on, and psyschometric analysis of, the contingent

focus model

Abstract

17.1 Risk attitudes and the contingent focus model

17.2 Experiment of contingent focus model and measurement

17.3 Experiment of contingent focus model

17.4 Conclusion and future perspectives

 References

18. The contingent focus model and its relation to other theories

Abstract

18.1 Expected utility theory

18.2 A counterexample to expected utility theory: Allais paradox

18.3 Nonadditive probability and nonlinear utility theory

18.4 Why nonlinear utility theory cannot explain the framing

effect

18.5 Framing effects and prospect theory

18.6 Relationship between the contingent focus model and

nonlinear expected utility theory and prospect theory

18.7 Conclusion and future perspectives

References

19. The mental ruler model: Qualitative and mathematical

representations of contingent judgment

Abstract

19.1 Contingent judgment

19.2 Contingent judgment and the problems in its modeling

19.3 Qualitative description of “mental ruler”

19.4 Mental ruler explanation using set theory and its

mathematical description
 19.5 Explanation of experimental findings

19.6 Conclusion and future perspectives

References

20. How attention arises in and influences decision-making

Abstract

20.1 Function of attention

20.2 Psychological model of attention

20.3 Mathematical model of attention rate to social events

20.4 Propositions and considerations derived from the model

20.5 Application to the psychometric model for attention rate to

Covid-19 problem

20.6 Control of attention by psychological experiment

20.7 Model of category focusing and construction of mental ruler

20.8 Conclusion and future perspective

References

21. Escaping from bad decisions and future perspective

Abstract

21.1 Epistemology of bad decision

21.2 Individual decision and group decision strategies

 21.3 Situational dependence of individual decision-making and
its psychological laws

21.4 Nudges, boosts, and metacognition

21.5 Metacognitive model of decision-making process

21.6 Conclusion

References

Author Index

Subject Index
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About the author
Kazuhisa Takemura is a Japanese psychologist and educator.
Besides serving as a professor at the Department of Psychology,
Waseda University, he is also the director of the University’s Center
for Decision Research, a professor at the Waseda MBA school, and a
research fellow at the Waseda Research Institute for Science and
Engineering.
He received his BA and MA degrees from the Department of
Psychology, Doshisha University, in 1983 and 1985, and received his
PhD (System Science) from Tokyo Institute of Technology in 1994,
and an additional PhD (Medical Science) from Kitasato University in
2013.
He has also worked abroad as a visiting researcher at James Cook
University, La Trobe University, and Australian National University
(Australia); the Tinbergen Institute (the Netherlands); Gothenburg
University and Stockholm University (Sweden); the University of
Konstanz (Germany); and National Cheng Kung University
(Taiwan). He was also a Fulbright Senior Researcher at the
Department of Social and Decision Science, Carnegie Mellon
University (USA) from 1999 to 2000, and a visiting professor at the
Department of Psychology, St. Petersburg State University (Russia)
in 2008, at Venice International University (Italy) in 2015.
His main research area is human judgment and decision-making,
especially the mathematical modeling of preferential judgment and
choice. He received a Hayashi Award (Distinguished Scholar) from
the Behaviormetric Society (in 2002), an Excellent Paper Award from
Japan Society of Kansei Engineering in 2003, Book Awards from the
Japanese Society of Social Psychology (in 2010) and the
Behaviormetric Society (in 2016), a Fellow Award from the
International Association of Applied Psychology (in 2018), and
Kimura Award, Transdisciplinary Federation of Science and
Technology (in 2021).
In the course of his career, he has taught extensively on behavioral
decision theory at many universities (Waseda University, Tokyo
University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Kobe
University, Nagoya University, Tokyo Institute of Technology,
Gakushuin University, Rikkyo University, Tokyo International
University, Kitasato University, Venice International University, St.
Petersburg State University, and National Cheng Kung University).
Preface
Bad decisions are made even in serious situations such as selecting a
personal career or selecting an important policy in management and
politics. In this book, I will first introduce the conceptual and
mathematical frameworks for decision theory and multi-attribute
decision-making theory and give the formal definitions of the worst
decision, the best decision, and bad decision. I will explain from a
theoretical point of view why it is difficult for many people to escape
from the bad decision. I will then give some examples of bad
decisions that were determined as bad decisions in experimental
studies in both individual and group settings. In experimental
studies, people tended to make bad decisions even in fatal situations
if they focused on the trivial aspects of a problem. Interestingly, bad
decisions are not very related to educational background. In addition
to providing a psychological model of bad decisions in multi-
attribute situations, I offer some suggestions based on empirical
research and computer simulation studies on how to avoid making
bad decisions.
This book also provides an overview of the idea of bad decisions
from behavioral and mathematical perspectives and related
theoretical and empirical findings. Behavioral decision theory is
described briefly as the general term for descriptive theories to
explain the psychological processes. As the studies of G. H. A. Simon
who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1978, D. Kahneman, and
R. Thaler who won the prize in 2002 and 2017, respectively, suggest,
the psychological methodology and knowledge of decision study
have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business
administration, and engineering, and are expected to become useful
in the future. This book will explain various behavioral and
mathematical models of bad decision phenomenon related to micro-
and macro-economic phenomenon. Numerous models have been
proposed to explain the psychological processes related to such
phenomenon. This book will also introduce some new models that
are useful to explain human bad decisions. It ends with some
speculation about the future of modern economic psychology while
referring to their relation with fields related to neuroscience, such as
neuroeconomics, that have been developed in recent years.
This book covers a range from classical to relatively recent major
studies related to economic psychology. Reading this book requires
no advanced expertise. Nonetheless, introductory knowledge of
psychology, business administration, and economics and
approximately high school graduate level mathematics should
improve a reader’s comprehension of the content. In addition, each
chapter includes a corresponding reference, which can be referred to
when studying more details related to decision theory.
The information provided in this book has been also used for
lectures at Waseda University, Gakushuin University, Rikkyo
University, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo Institute of Technology,
Nagoya University, Kansai University, Osaka University of Human
Sciences, Osaka University, Kobe University, University of Tsukuba,
Saint Petersburg State University, Russia, National Cheng Kun
University, Taiwan, and Venice International University, Italy.
Questions and answers exchanged with students at all of those
places have contributed greatly to the compilation of this book.
Particularly I have received highly valuable opinions from graduate
students taking the Takemura Seminar at Waseda University and
from researchers in decision-making studies through usual
discussions. Above all, Dr. Hajime Murakami, Mr. Keita Kawasugi,
Ms. Kaori Kanaoka, and Nene Yamazaki of Waseda University
helped with some of the proofreading, corrections, and editing files
of figures and tables.
Firstly, I would like to thank the series editor, Prof. Morris
Altman, the Elsevier team, especially Ms. Rachel Pomrey, Person
Devlin, Mr. Graham Nisbet, Mr. Surya Narayanan, and anonymous
reviewers for this book for their helpful comments. The research
Another random document with
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The Project Gutenberg eBook of I bring fresh
flowers
 This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United
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Title: I bring fresh flowers

Author: Robert F. Young

Release date: December 12, 2023 [eBook #72390]

Language: English

Original publication: New York, NY: Ziff-Davis Publishing

Company, 1963

Credits: Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online Distributed

Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK I BRING

FRESH FLOWERS ***
 I Bring Fresh Flowers

By ROBERT F. YOUNG

A touching tale of an Astronette—and why the

gentle rain from Heaven has the quality of mercy.

[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from

Amazing Stories February 1964.
Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that
the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]
You know Rosemary Brooks. You have known her for many years.
It is said that when she was a little girl her favorite poem was
Barbara Frietchie, and it is told how she would sometimes poke her
pretty head out of her bedroom window, survey the suburban street
with her blue-sky eyes, and cry, "Shoot, if you must, this old gray
head, but spare your country's flag!"
Yes, you know Rosemary. You know her very well.
Like all little girls, Rosemary grew up. But Rosemary did not change.
This is not to say that she did not turn into an attractive young lady.
She turned into a most attractive one indeed. Fragilely beautiful, airy
of tread, she should have been the reigning rose of every dance she
went to, but she was not. Rarely did the young men of her
acquaintance ask her to dance, and never did one of them approach
her and say, "Come into the garden, Rosemary, for the black bat,
night, has flown." She did not go to very many dances in any event,
and looking back, one realizes that the few she did attend, she
attended primarily to please her mother. The reason behind
Rosemary's wallflowerhood is simple: the young men of her
acquaintance knew that with her, God and the United States of
America came first, and that accompanying her through life, or even
accompanying her home from a dance for that matter, meant being
relegated to a back seat. It is alright for little girls to be Barbara
Frietchies, you see, but not for big ones.
During her short and dedicated life, Rosemary poked her pretty head
out of quite a number of windows. After the Barbara Frietchie
window came the Girl Scouts of America window, and after the Girl
Scouts of America window came the Young Peoples' Civil War
Society window, and after the Young Peoples' Civil War Society
window came the Citizens for Patriotic Progress window. Last of all
came the Astronette Training Center window.
Set up by Project Rain Dance in 1969 after prejudice against women
going into space had abated, the Astronette Training Center had for
its purpose the finding, training, and conditioning of six female pilots
for a series of six manned weather-control satellite shots, the first of
which was scheduled to take place some time in February of '71.
After exhaustive screening, one hundred volunteers were accepted.
Fifteen of them passed the exacting physical and psychological
tests, and from the ranks of the fifteen, the six astronettes were
chosen. Incredibly, when one considers her delicateness (and fails to
consider her patriotic fervor), Rosemary not only made the grade but
was selected to accompany the first weather-control satellite to be
placed in orbit.
All of this is history now—faded words on newsprint, old
photographs, a dozen dusty articles in as many magazines—but at
the time, it captured the attention of the whole wide world. It is said
that Madison Avenue nearly went out of its mind trying to circumvent
the regulation that prohibited astronettes from underwriting
testimonials to toothpaste, cosmetics, and cigarettes. This is not to
be wondered at. If Rosemary could have been legally enticed, for
example, into letting her picture appear in a cigarette ad, cigarette
consumption probably would have doubled overnight. It is one thing
to be an obscure Barbara Frietchie and quite another to be a famous
one, and the patriotic devotion shining in a person's eyes can,
through the thaumaturgy of photography and touch-up, be
transmuted into a sensual gleam.
February of '71 arrived at last, as all months must, and a specific
date was set for the launching. Psychological winter had come and
gone, but no singing of birds could be heard. Even as far south as
Canaveral, gray skies were the rule, and gray rain fell intermittently.
Countdown was begun regardless. And then, miraculously it
seemed, the skies cleared, and the day of the launching dawned
bright and clear. There is a photograph of Rosemary standing in her
snow-white spacesuit at the base of the gantry, her space helmet
resting in the crook of her arm. The photograph is in color, and the
blueness of her eyes is not one whit different in shade and texture
from the blueness of the sky behind her. This is as it should be.
Looking at her hair, one thinks of sunrises and sunsets. This is as it
should be too. When remembering Rosemary, it is fitting that one
should think of the sun and the sky. It is equally fitting that one
should think of the snow and the rain. For Rosemary is nothing if she
is not all of these things.

The launching was a good one. The Rainbow 6 rode its Saturn
booster like a bird on jet-fire wings, and the bright star of its passage
seemed to linger in the morning sky long after the booster had fallen
away. The television cameras caught the action beautifully, and the
American public, reminded once again that the noblest thing a
person can do is to risk his life for his country, looked on in awe and
admiration. The orbit was a good one too: apogee—203 miles;
perigee—191 miles. Rosemary radioed back that she was A-okay.
She was supposed to complete three orbits, then climb into the
escape capsule, jettison it and herself, re-enter the atmosphere, and
parachute into the Atlantic. There, a task force waited eagerly to pick
her up. Her mission was to orientate the satellite's weather-factor
instruments to the existent cloud patterns and jet streams. Once this
was accomplished, the telemetric readings would, through the
medium of the Main Weather Control Station in Oregon, dictate
future weather. Weather control had been in effect since the middle
sixties, but the telemetric readings of the unmanned weather-control
satellites, owing to faulty orientation, had fallen far short of the one-
hundred percent accuracy needed to make the regulation of rain and
sunshine something more than a half-realized dream, and it was
hoped that the present satellite, given a human boost, would bring
the dream to fruition.
One can picture Rosemary high in the sky, faithfully carrying out her
assignment. One can see her sitting there before the instrument
panel of the Rainbow 6 looking at dawns and sunsets and stars. One
can see the slow drift of cloud and continent beneath her. Australia
now, and now the vast blueness of the Pacific ... and now the west
coast rising out of mists of distances and air, and beyond it, the vast
green blur of the land that gave her birth. Little Barbara Frietchie
riding on a star.... Far beneath her now, highways wind; rivers run
down to seas. Patternings of field and forest blend into pale blue-
greens. Fresh-water lakes look up at her with blue and wondering
eyes. Now the sea of night drifts forth to meet her. Bravely she sets
sail upon the dark waves in her little silvery ship. Brief night, soft
sunrise, new day.

I bring fresh showers for the thirsting flowers,

From the seas and the streams;
I bear light shade for the leaves when laid
In their noonday dreams.

Little Barbara Frietchie riding on a star....

Jettisoning took place exactly on schedule. The weather-control
satellite continued on its orbital way, and Rosemary plummeted
earthward in the escape capsule. That much, at least, is known. But
what took place during re-entry—whether the retro rockets failed to
fire, whether the attitude controls malfunctioned, or whether the heat
shield proved to be defective—is not known and never will be known.
All that is known is that Rosemary became a falling star.
The nation mourned. The whole wide world mourned. Project Rain
Dance was discontinued. It would have been discontinued in any
event, for Rosemary had obviated any further need for it. She had
done her job well, Rosemary had, and in the doing of it, she had
placed the weather in the palm of mankind's out-stretched hand.

That spring, the rains were soft and warm and the flowers grew
riotously upon the face of the earth. Grass knew a greenness it had
never known before, and trees dressed each day in lovelier and
lovelier dresses. The rains fell in the cities and on the plains. In
valleys and in little towns. On fields and forests and lawns. And when
the land had drunk its fill, the sun came out as warm and as bright as
Rosemary's hair, and the sky turned as blue as her eyes.
Yes, you know Rosemary, and you are in love with her in a way. If
you are not, you should be. She is the sun coming up in the morning
and the sun going down at night. She is the gentle rain against your
face in spring. She is the snow falling on Christmas Eve. She is
every glorious rainbow you see in the rain-washed sky. She is that
pattern of tree-shade over there. Each morning, when you are lying
fast asleep in your trundle bed, she tiptoes into your room, her
golden sandals soundless on the bedroom floor, and wakes you with
a golden kiss. Sunlight is her laughter, her voice the patter of the rain
—Soft you now!—she speaks:

I am the daughter of the earth and water,

And the nursling of the sky;
I pass through the pores of the ocean and shores;
I change, but I cannot die....
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