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Textbook Ebook Reaching Net Zero What It Takes To Solve The Global Climate Crisis 1St Edition William D Fletcher All Chapter PDF
Textbook Ebook Reaching Net Zero What It Takes To Solve The Global Climate Crisis 1St Edition William D Fletcher All Chapter PDF
WILLIAM D. FLETCHER
Rockwell International Corporation, (Retired) Costa Mesa,
CA, United States
CRAIG B. SMITH
DMJM 1 H&N, (Retired) Los Angeles, CA, United States
Elsevier
Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom
50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by
the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and
experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices,
or medical treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in
evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described
herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety
and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or
editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter
of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods,
products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
Photographs xv
Preface: Why read this book? xvii
Acknowledgments xxiii
Acronyms xxv
1. Introduction 1
Should we be concerned about global warming? 1
What about solar radiation? 2
The greenhouse effect 2
What are the greenhouse gases? 3
What are the signs of global warming? 5
What are the dangers of global warming? 5
Can anything be done about global warming? 7
Part I
3. The earth as a system 21
Incident solar radiation 21
Milankovitch cycles 23
More about the greenhouse effect 25
Carbon cycle 26
Temperature increase 30
v
vi Contents
Inequities: the early role of the United States and the United Kingdom 31
The pivotal position of the United States 33
Need to consider both absolute and per capita emissions 34
Gross domestic product growth and energy use are related 36
More energy will be required by developing countries 37
Part II
9. What would it take to reach net zero? 107
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative scenarios 107
What would it take? 110
Are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios realistic? 111
Carbon removal 115
What is a more likely scenario? 115
Are we too late already? 116
Doing nothing is not an option 117
What will happen if we do nothing? 118
The high cost of doing nothing 121
Part III
14. Action Plan: efficiency, power, transportation, and land use 201
Do we need another moon shot? 201
The challenges of a global approach 202
Contents ix
Afterword 259
Further reading 261
Useful reports 263
Useful websites 265
Part IV Appendices
Appendix 1: Abbreviations, units, and conversion factors 269
Appendix 2: The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere: sources and sinks 275
Appendix 3: Will the IPCC goal of 450 ppm be met? 277
Appendix 4: Key parameters used to formulate Action Plan 279
Appendix 5: Flood and sea rise mitigation 285
Appendix 6: Financial measures 289
Appendix 7: Activist and lobbying groups, litigation examples 293
Appendix 8: Excerpts from corporate annual reports 301
Index 307
List of Figures
xi
xii List of Figures
Figure 10.3 Mismatch between solar power supply and demand 131
Figure 10.4A LCOE Wind Power 132
Figure 10.4B LCOE utility-scale PV solar 132
Figure 10.5 Trends in wind turbine design 133
Figure 10.6 The biofuels life cycle 134
Figure 11.1 Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990, 150
in GmtCO2eq.
Figure 12.1 U.S. public policy priorities 2019 168
Figure 13.1 World oil consumption per capita 183
Figure 14.1 CO2 emissions declined relative to GDP due to higher 205
efficiency
Figure 14.2 Energy efficiency graphs: (A) Refrigerators. (B) LED lamps. 206
(C) Buildings
Figure 14.3 Impact of the Action Plan on “Business as Usual” 214
Figure 14.4 Estimated cost of seawall construction in the United States, 221
through 2040
Figure 15.1 Levelized cost of energy alternatives in North America 229
List of Tables
xiii
Photographs
xv
Preface: Why read this book?
Global warming is probably the most important and complex public pol-
icy and international relations issue in the world today. Stopping global
warming and mitigating its unavoidable consequences are not just a tech-
nical problem. The science and technology available today are sufficient
to address this problem without delay. Many aspects of our society will be
impacted in some way by global warming. The biggest challenges involve
educating the public so that they will support the required changes, get-
ting governments to support a carbon fee and other actions and achieving
the level of international cooperation and coordination required to solve
this global problem.
The purpose of this book is to provide a complete understanding of
global warming with clear explanations of the science behind climate
change. The book contains the facts people need to understand global
warming and what can and should be done about it. We discuss actions
that need to be taken, including a review of relevant past successes and
failures with lessons learned. The complexities and challenges of addres-
sing global warming are discussed along with the unique problems of the
six countries that are the largest sources of greenhouse gases.
For specialists such as those in earth science or environmental studies,
this book is a good overview covering the science, technology, econom-
ics, politics, international relations, and other issues involved in actually
doing something about global warming. This should help specialists more
narrowly focused on specific problems to understand all the problems and
choices involved and the actions that must be taken. For academics, engi-
neers, professionals, and concerned citizens, the book tells them what they
need to know to understand, discuss, and debate global warming.
This book will be of interest to students in science, engineering, politi-
cal science, international relations, economics, public health, law, and
perhaps other disciplines. For nontechnical students, the book is an
understandable and comprehensive presentation of the science and tech-
nology they need to understand global warming and what should be
done about it.
We see global warming due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions
as the fundamental problem. Climate change is a consequence of global
warming. Let us not confuse climate change and weather. Weather is
xvii
xviii Preface: Why read this book?
the atmosphere, they reduce the amount of heat leaving the earth, causing
it to warm up. Ocean temperatures are increasing, polar ice is melting,
permafrost is melting, and the sea level is rising due to the combined
effects of thermal expansion and melting ice. Other physical evidence of
global warming can be seen, as we describe. The earth has had many
cycles of climate change in its history—usually over periods of tens of
thousands of years. What makes these recent changes noteworthy (and
ominous) is that they are occurring at an unprecedented rate—in decades,
not in millennia, as in prehistoric times.
In 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
after detailed studies by a group of world climate experts, set a goal of
limiting the earth’s average temperature increase to 1.5 C (2.7 F) above
“preindustrial levels.” IPCC estimated that meeting this temperature goal
would require keeping the atmospheric concentration of CO2 below 450
parts per million (ppm). As we show in Chapter 3, the highest concentra-
tion during the 400,000 years preceding the Industrial Revolution was
300 ppm. By June 2019, the atmospheric concentration had reached a
high of 415 ppm.1 Today, it is certain that the IPCC goal of limiting to a
1.5 C temperature rise cannot be met. Greater temperature increases are
inevitable. The consequences of higher temperatures are unknown, but
are likely to be severe.
The earth’s average temperature has already increased 1.0 C above its
temperature before the start of the Industrial Revolution (estimated as
13.8 C or 56.8 F in 1880) and is headed toward a 2.0 C rise. While
2.0 C (3.6 F) may seem like nothing, for humans, a 2.0 C rise from the
normal body temperature of 37 C (98.6 F) could mean a fever of 39 C
(102.2 F) and a serious illness.2
Sadly, it is not good enough to stop the rate of greenhouse gas emis-
sions at current levels. At current emission levels, greenhouse gas concen-
trations in the atmosphere will continue to increase indefinitely, leading
to more global warming. CO2 released to the atmosphere stays there for
hundreds of years. If CO2 emissions stopped today, it would take hun-
dreds of years for the excess CO2eq already in the atmosphere to
completely dissipate. Meanwhile, warming would continue.
Readers are challenged by the large amount of climate disinformation
disseminated by the fossil fuel industry and others, and by the complexity
of much of the available valid science. Several organizations and indivi-
duals minimize the impact of global warming or promote the belief that
nothing can or should be done about this problem. Others are promoting
xx Preface: Why read this book?
End Notes
1. CO2. earth, Daily CO2 readings, Mauna Loa Observatory, https://
www.co2.earth/daily-co2.
2. With thanks to John Goodman, who suggested this analogy in a letter
to the Los Angeles Times, December 5, 2018, p. A12.
Acknowledgments
It would not have been possible to write this book without the dedicated
efforts of thousands of scientists in many disciplines working today and in
the past. Their efforts have gathered, analyzed, and reported the scientific
data needed to write this book. They have conducted experiments to verify
and explain the changes we are observing. Without their efforts, the world
would be experiencing changes without understanding what is happening
and without insights concerning what can and should be done to prevent
adverse effects. We are all in their debt. We owe thanks to many people
who encouraged us to write this book and who offered helpful suggestions
and critiques. We are especially indebted to the scientists, engineers, econo-
mists, lawyers, and others who reviewed an early draft of the manuscript:
Curtis Abdouch, M.S., Captain Jerry Aspland, Cecelia Arzbaecher, Ph.D.,
William Michael Barnes, Ph.D., John J. Berger, Ph.D., Paul Bjorkholm,
Ph.D., John E. Bond, Attorney, Virginia Casey, M.S., Frank E. Coffman,
Ph.D., Kevin C. Daly, Ph.D., Jerry Dauderman, MBA, Peter Fletcher, M.
S., Suzy Fletcher, M.L.S., Warren Fix, Joe Genshlea, Attorney, Rich
Harms, Raymond W. Holdsworth, MBA, Tony Hsu, Ph.D., Marie
Kontos, educator, John Kensey, MBA, Dave Larue, Ph.D., Wilbur D.
Layman, Attorney, René Malés, M.S., John Martin, BSEE, Tom Merrick,
M.S., Phil and Jane Miller, Tom Osborne, Ph.D., Gary Palo, M.S., Kelly
Parmenter, Ph.D., James (Walkie) Ray, BSCE, Andrew Smith, Ph.D.,
Nancy Smith, educator, Robert Smith, Ph.D., Russell Spencer, Ph.D.,
Mark Taggert, environmental lobbyist, Robert Taylor, environmental
writer, Richard Thompson, BSEE, MBA, Mitzi Wells, banker.
A special thanks to Shahir Masri, Ph.D., from the University of
California, Irvine, who kindly reviewed the preliminary draft and then
reread the final draft for technical accuracy.
We thank Matthew Laffin, Tenaya Parmenter, Halle DeMargo, and
Mike Phillips for developing the illustrations, and Raeghan Rebstock for
the website and social media design and support. Also thanks to Ms.
Valeen Szabo, Director, Borrego Springs Chamber of Commerce, for
providing information regarding the Borrego Springs micro grid project.
To those individuals and organizations who generously gave permis-
sion to reproduce illustrations from their publications, we express a special
thanks: James Balog, Photographer, Earth Vision Institute; Professor
xxiii
xxiv Acknowledgments
xxv
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the job that would bungle it. I've got an idea as to where the Greuze
is hidden, but I know very well that at the first hint of anything going
wrong it would disappear, or be destroyed."
"Then you think that the same people who brought off the
Flurscheim burglary are responsible for the despatch leakage?"
asked the Permanent Secretary.
"Certain of it," declared Inspector Kenly.
"But if you continue to work on my business, isn't what you fear
likely to come to pass? Will not another man be put on to the picture
robbery? Flurscheim will hardly keep silence."
"I'll see after that," answered Kenly. "From what I know of Mr.
Flurscheim he won't let the grass grow under his feet. He is probably
on the way to town now."
"Then what becomes of your plans?" asked the Permanent
Secretary. He could see that the detective had not revealed all that
was in his mind.
"Mr. Flurscheim wants to get his Greuze back undamaged," said
the detective slowly, "and he also wants to punish the man who stole
it. I shall see him directly he arrives in town, and I think I can make it
clear to him that he had better say nothing until I consider the time
ripe for action."
"There's only one thing more," remarked the Permanent
Secretary. "Suppose I think it necessary to ask Captain Marven for
an explanation?"
The detective jumped to his feet with a look of horror on his
face. "Good heavens! Sir Everard," he exclaimed, "you would spoil
everything. You won't do it?"
The Permanent Secretary laughed.
"You may make your mind easy, Kenly," he observed. "I'm too
much of a sportsman for that, I hope."
CHAPTER XX
GUY'S LAST THEFT