PROBABILITY

F U N D A M E N TA LS

D U T I M OY I J A H A N G I R
LECTURER
D E PA RT M E N T O F T E X T I L E E N G I N E E R I N G
PROBABILITY

Probability is a measure of the

likelihood of a random
A value between zero and one,
phenomenon or chance behavior.
inclusive, describing the
Probability describes the long-term
relative possibility (chance or
proportion with which a certain
likelihood) an event will occur.
outcome will occur in situations
with short-term uncertainty.
WHY DO WE NEED PROBABILITY?

Descriptive statistics is concerned

with summarizing data collected from
past events. We now turn to the The use of probability theory allows
second facet of statistics, namely, the decision maker with only limited
computing the chance that something information to analyze the risks and
will occur in the future. This facet of minimize the gamble inherent.
statistics is called statistical
inference or inferential statistics.
KEY WORDS

Experiment: A process that

Three key words are used leads to the occurrence of
in the study of probabaility: one and only one of several
possible observations.

Event: A collection of one or

Outcome: A particular
more outcomes of an
result of an experiment.
experiment.
APPROACHES TO ASSIGNING
PROBABILITIES
Two approaches to assigning probabilities to an event, namely, the Objective and the
Subjective viewpoints.
Objective Probability is subdivided into (1) Classical Probability and (2) Empirical
Probability
Classical Probability:
Based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely.
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
Classical Probability=
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
APPROACHES TO ASSIGNING
PROBABILITIES
Empirical Probability:
The Empirical definition applies when the number of times the event happens is divided by
the number of observations.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
Empirical Probability=
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

Subjective Probability:

Subjective probability is based on whatever information is available.

SUMMARY OF APPROACHES TO
PROBABILITY

7
LAW OF LARGE
NUMBERS
The Empirical approach to probability is
based on what is called the Law of Large
Numbers.
Law of Large Numbers:
As the number of repetitions of a probability
experiment increases, the proportion with which a
certain outcome is observed gets closer to the
probability of the outcome.
Example:
Suppose we toss a fair coin. The result of each toss
is either a head or a tail. If we toss the coin a great
number of times, the probability of the outcome of
heads will approach .5. The following table reports
the results of an experiment of flipping a fair coin
1, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1,000 and 10,000 times and
then computing the relative frequency of heads-
Events are Mutually Exclusive
if the occurrence of any one
event means that none of the
others can occur at the same
time.
Events are Independent if
the occurrence of one
event does not affect the
occurrence of another.

Mutually exclusive:
Rolling a 2 precludes
rolling a 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 on
the same roll.
Independence: Rolling a 2 on
the first throw does not
influence the probability of a 3
on the next throw. It is still a
one in 6 chance.

Events are Collectively Exhaustive if at least one

of the events must occur when an experiment is
conducted.
DETERMINISTIC VS. RANDOM
PROCESSES
In deterministic processes, the
outcome can be predicted exactly in
advance.
Eg. Force = mass x acceleration. If we
are given values for mass and
acceleration, we exactly know the value
of force
In random processes, the outcome
is not known exactly, but we can still
describe the probability
distribution of possible outcomes.
Eg. 10 coins tosses: we don’t know
exactly how many heads we will get, but
we can calculate the probability of getting
a certain number of heads.
EVENTS
An event is an outcome or a set of outcomes of a random process

• Example: Tossing a coin three times

• Event A = getting exactly two heads = {HTH, HHT, THH}
• Example: Tossing a fair dice
• Event A = result is an even number = {2, 4, 6}

Probability Rule 1: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 for any event A

SAMPLE SPACE
The sample space S of a random process is the set of all possible
outcomes
• Example: one-coin toss
• S = {H,T}
• Example: three coins tosses
• S = {HHH, HTH, HHT, TTT, HTT, THT, TTH, THH}
• Example: roll a six-sided dice
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Example: Pick a real number X between 1 and 20
• S = all real numbers between 1 and 20

Probability Rule 2: The probability of the whole sample space is 1.

P(S) = 1
COMBINATIONS OF EVENTS
• The complement Ac of an event A is the event that A does not
occur
• Probability Rule 3:
P(Ac) = 1 - P(A)
• The union of two events A and B is the event that either A or B
or both occurs
• The intersection of two events A and B is the event that both A
and B occur
Event A Complement of A Union of A and B Intersection of A and B
A Venn Diagram illustrating the complement rule
would appear as:

A
~A
 DISJOINT EVENTS
• Two events are called disjoint if they can not happen at the
same time.
Events A and B are disjoint means that the intersection of A
and B is zero
Example: coin is tossed twice
S = {HH,TH,HT,TT}
Events A={HH} and B={TT} are disjoint
Events A={HH,HT} and B = {HH} are not disjoint

• Probability Rule 4: If A and B are disjoint events then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Events A and B are independent if knowing that A occurs does not
affect the probability that B occurs

Example: tossing two coins

Event A = first coin is a head Independent
Event B = second coin is a head

Disjoint events cannot be independent!

• If A and B can not occur together (disjoint), then knowing that A occurs does
change probability that B occurs

• Probability Rule 5: If A and B are independent

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
JOINT PROBABILITY
A Joint Probability measures the likelihood that two or more events
will happen concurrently.

An example would be the event that a student has both a stereo and TV
in his or her dorm room.
RULES FOR ADDITION:
SUM UP
Rules of Addition
• Special Rule of Addition - If two events
A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability of one or the other event’s
occurring equals the sum of their
probabilities.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

• The General Rule of Addition - If A

and B are two events that are not
mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) is
given by the following formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
GENERAL RULE OF ADDITION
If A and B are two events that are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) is given by the
following formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Example:
In a sample of 500 students, 320 said they had a stereo, 175 said they had a TV, and 100
said they had both. 5 said they had neither.
If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that the student has only a
stereo or TV? What is the probability that the student has both a stereo and TV?
Solution: P(S or TV) = P(S) + P(TV) - P(S and TV)
= 320/500 + 175/500 – 100/500
= .79.
P(S and TV) = 100/500
= .20
SPECIAL RULE OF MULTIPLICATION

The special rule of multiplication requires that two events A and B are

independent.

Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one has no effect on the

probability of the occurrence of the other.

This rule is written: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

MULTIPLICATION RULE-EXAMPLE
A survey by the American Automobile association (AAA) revealed 60
percent of its members made airline reservations last year. Two members
are selected at random. What is the probability both made airline
reservations last year?

Solution:
The probability the first member made an airline reservation last year is
.60, written as P(R1) = .60
The probability that the second member selected made a reservation is
also .60, so P(R2) = .60.
Since the number of AAA members is very large, you may assume that
R1 and R2 are independent.

P(R1 and R2) = P(R1)P(R2) = (.60)(.60) = .36

EXAMPLE
Chris owns two stocks, IBM and General Electric (GE). The probability that
IBM stock will increase in value next year is .5 and the probability that GE
stock will increase in value next year is .7. Assume the two stocks are
independent. What is the probability that both stocks will increase in value
next year?
P(IBM and GE) = (.5)(.7) = .35

What is the Probability that at least one of these stocks increases in value in
the next year? This means that either one can increase or both?
P(at least one)
= P(IBM but not GE) + P(GE but not IBM)+
P(IBM and GE)
 The General Rule It states that for two
of Multiplication is events A and B, the
used to find the joint joint probability that
probability of two both events will happen
events when the is found by multiplying
events are not the probability that
independent. event A will happen by
the conditional
probability of B given
that A has occurred.
GENERAL MULTIPLICATION RULE - EXAMPLE
A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these shirts are
white and the others blue. He gets dressed in the dark, so he just
grabs a shirt and puts it on. He plays golf two days in a row and does
not do laundry.
What is the likelihood both shirts selected are white?
GENERAL MULTIPLICATION RULE - SOLUTION
The event that the first shirt selected is white is W1. The probability is
P(W1) = 9/12
The event that the second shirt selected is also white is identified as W2.
The conditional probability that the second shirt selected is white, given
that the first shirt selected is also white, is P(W2 | W1) = 8/11.
To determine the probability of 2 white shirts being selected we use
formula: P(AB) = P(A) P(B|A)
P(W1 and W2) = P(W1)P(W2 |W1) = (9/12)(8/11) = 0.55
RULE OF MULTIPLICATION: SUM UP

The special rule of multiplication requires that two events A and B are
independent.
This rule is written: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)

The General rule of multiplication requires that two events A and B are
not independent.
This rule is written: P(A and B) = P(A)P(B/A)
SOME PRINCIPLES OF COUNTING
The Multiplication Formula indicates that if there are m ways of doing one
thing and n ways of doing another thing, there are m x n ways of doing both.
Example 10: Dr. Delong has 10 shirts and 8 ties. How many shirt and
tie outfits does he have?

(10)(8) = 80
SOME PRINCIPLES OF COUNTING
A Permutation is any arrangement of r objects selected from n possible objects.
Note:The order of arrangement is important in permutations.
n!
n Pr 
( n  r )!

A Combination is the number of ways to choose r objects from a group of n

objects without regard to order.
n!
nCr 
r! (n  r )!
EXAMPLE
There are 12 players on the Carolina Forest High School basketball team. Coach
Thompson must pick five players among the twelve on the team to comprise the
starting lineup. How many different groups are possible? (Order does not
matter.)

12!
12C 5   792
5! (12  5)!
EXAMPLE
There are 12 players on the Carolina Forest High School basketball team.
Coach Thompson must pick five players among the twelve on the team to
comprise the starting lineup. Suppose that in addition to selecting the group, he
must also rank each of the players in that starting lineup according to their
ability (order matters). How many different groups are possible?

12!
12 P 5   95,040
(12  5)!
BAYES’ THEOREM
Bayes' theorem, named after 18th-century British mathematician Thomas Bayes,
is a mathematical formula for determining Conditional Probability.
Conditional probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring, based on a
previous outcome occurring.

Bayes’ Theorem is the extension of Conditional probability. Conditional

probability helps us to determine the probability of A given B, denoted by P(A|B).
So Bayes’ theorem says if we know P(A|B) then we can determine P(B|A), given
that P(A) and P(B) are known to us.
BAYES’ THEOREM FORMULA DERIVATION
From General rule of multiplication, we know that Conditional probability
P(A|B) = P(B and A)/P(B) [In Joint Probability order does not matter]
Or, P(A and B) = P(B) * P(A|B) — — — — –[1]
Similarly
P(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A) = P(A and B)/P(A)
Or, P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) — — -[2]
From equation [1] and [2],
P(B) * P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A)
Or, P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A) / P(B)
Which mean if we know P(A|B) then we can easily determine P(B|A) and
vice versa. Assuming we know the total probabilities P(A) and P(B).
EXAMPLE
Imagine 100 people at a party and tally how many wear pink or not, and if a man
or not and get these numbers:

Calculate the probability that a person is a man given wearing pink using Bayes’
Theorem?
SOLUTION
Let’s do some totals:

And calculate some probabilities:

• the probability of being a man is P(Man) = 40/100 = 0.4
• the probability of wearing pink is P(Pink) = 25/100 = 0.25
• the probability that wearing pink given it is man is P(Pink|Man) = 5/40 = 0.125
SOLUTION
Probability that a person is a man given wearing pink, P(Man|Pink)
using Bayes’ Theorem=
P(Man|Pink) = P(Man)* P(Pink|Man)/P(Pink)
P(Man|Pink) = 0.4 × 0.125/0.25 = 0.2
In the party, 20% man is wearing pink.
EXAMPLE
Epidemiologists claim that the probability of breast cancer among Caucasian
women in their mid-50s is 0.005. An established test identified people who had
breast cancer and those that were healthy. A new mammography test in clinical
trials has a probability of 0.85 for detecting cancer correctly. In women without
breast cancer, it has a chance of 0.925 for a negative result. If a 55-year-old
Caucasian woman tests positive for breast cancer, what is the probability that
she, in fact, has breast cancer?
SOLUTION
P(Cancer) = 0.005
P(Test Positive | Cancer) = 0.85
P(Test Neg|No cancer) = 0.925
P(Cancer|Test Positive)= P(Cancer) * P(Test Positive | Cancer) / P(Test Positive)
= 0.005*0.85/0.078875 = 0.054
Probability table:
Probability of having Test being positive Test being negative
cancer or not
Cancer 0.005 0.005*0.85= 0.00425 0.005*0.15= 0.00075

No Cancer 0.995 0.995*0.075= 0.074625 0.995*0.925= 0.920375

Total 1.00 0.078875 0.921125