Vietnam Economy and Stock Market 1Q21 Review and Outlook

Strategy report | April 6, 2021
VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

1Q21 review and outlook
Unlocking Vietnam’s potential
Minh Le minh.le@miraeasset.com.vn
Tran Nguyen tran.ntb@miraeasset.com.vn
Hoa Tran hoa.ttn@miraeasset.com.vn
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Contents
I. Vietnam economy review and 2021 prospects 3

II. Vietnam market review 21
III. Vietnam 2021 market prospects 29
IV. Stock recommendation 37
2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I. Vietnam economy review and 2021 prospects
❑ After bottoming out in 2Q20, Vietnam's GDP rebounded remarkably, confirming a V-shaped recovery
for Vietnam's economy. As a result, Vietnam was among the few economies to enjoy 2.9%-level growth
in 2020. Positive 1Q21 economic data reaffirm the solid fundamentals of Vietnam’s economy.
❑ The recovery continued in 1Q21, despite a resurgence of the third wave of COVID-19, with GDP growth
of 4.5% YoY — among the highest in the world. Key drivers include: 1) Vietnam’s prompt response to
the recurrence of COVID-19 in late January; 2) improving domestic consumption; 3) strengthened
external demand, thanks to the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and continued stimulus policies, resulting
in double-digit growth in exports and improving industrial production; 4) Vietnam remaining an
attractive destination for FDI; 5) the Vietnamese government’s boosting of public investment to
support post-COVID-19 economic growth; 6) strengthened macroeconomic stability, thanks to stable
inflation and exchange rates.
❑ On a negative note, lingering weakness in the Accommodation and Catering Services and Tourism
sectors dragged down economic growth in 1Q21; that said, Accommodation and Catering Services
narrowed its contraction in 1Q21.
❑ Vietnam’s economy is expected to continue to recover, with a forecast growth rate of 6.9% in 2021.

I. Vietnam economy review and 2021 prospects (cont’d)
❑ Vietnam’s economy is expected to consolidate a V-shaped recovery in 2021, with a forecast growth rate of
6.9%, thanks to:
▪ COVID-19 being brought under control, and the rollout of vaccinations.
▪ Supportive monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate investment and consumption, alongside improving
consumer confidence.
▪ Increased public investment.
▪ Robust export growth, thanks to membership in FTAs, as well as improved post-pandemic global demand.
▪ Vietnam being a preferred destination for a wave of supply chain restructuring.
❑ The main challenges for economic growth include:
▪ If COVID-19 continues to spread on a global scale, it will slow down Vietnam's economic recovery, due to
the very high openness of the economy and deeper participation in the global supply chain.
▪ Slower-than-expected COVID-19 vaccine distribution may curtail Vietnam’s economic growth.
▪ Climate change and disease could have negative impacts on the agricultural sector.
▪ It will take years for Travel and Aviation to get back to pre-pandemic levels.
▪ Vietnam’s rising state budget deficit. The government’s debt payment obligations from state revenues
could exceed the mandated level in 2021.

Vietnam macroeconomic dashboard
Indicators Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
COVID-19 trackers
Global new COVID-19 cases per million 1 10 101 308 373 548 917 1,014 1,091 1,556 2,215 2,585 2,498 1,431 1,888
Total global vaccination per hundred 0.12 1.28 3.28 7.71
New COVID-19 cases per million in Vietnam 0.0 0.1 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 2.1 5.0 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.2 3.6 6.5 1.6
Total vaccination per hundred in Vietnam 0.05
Vietnam's stringency index 12.3 40.9 53.5 88.8 71.5 63.3 58.5 77.3 72.2 55.6 45.6 53.5 58.5 70.9 61.6
Economic indicators
Index of Industrial production (monthly, % YoY) -5.5 23.7 5.4 -10.5 -3.1 7.0 1.1 -0.6 3.8 5.4 9.2 9.5 22.2 -7.2 3.9
PMI (point) 50.6 49.0 41.9 32.7 42.7 51.1 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6
Average CPI (% YoY) 1.23 5.91 5.56 4.90 4.39 4.19 4.07 3.96 3.85 3.71 3.51 3.23 0.06 -0.14 0.29
Retail sales growth (cumulative, % YoY) 10.2 8.3 4.7 -4.3 -3.9 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.6 6.4 5.5 5.1
International traveller growth (monthly, % YoY) 32.8 -21.8 -68.1 -98.2 -98.3 -99.3 -98.9 -98.9 -99.1 -99.1 -99.0 -99.0 -99.1 -99.1 -98.7
FDI disbursement (monthly, % YoY) 322.2 -62.5 -47.4 39.3 -35.9 0.0 49.3 -70.3 -66.0 -25.2 -0.7 1.4 4.1 -1.0 14.3
FDI registration (monthly, % YoY) 3.2 -17.5 -5.8 -20.9 -3.1 8.3 0.0 -7.8 6.2 0.5 11.1 -44.8 -62.6 268.3 361.9
Export growth (cumulative, % YoY) -17.0 8.2 7.4 2.1 -0.9 0.2 1.5 2.4 4.2 5.0 5.4 6.5 50.5 23.2 22.0
Import growth (cumulative, % YoY) -12.5 3.0 3.6 -0.5 -4.8 -3.0 -3.2 -2.4 -0.9 0.2 1.6 3.6 41.0 25.9 26.3
Trade balance (monthly, US$bn) -0.3 2.3 2.0 -0.9 1.0 1.9 2.8 5.0 3.0 2.9 0.5 -0.3 2.1 -0.5 1.2
Credit growth (% YoY) 11.6 12.6 11.6 10.3 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.0 12.2 12.9 12.7 14.0
VND/US$ (% MoM) 0.2 0.1 1.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2
Stock market
VNIndex return (% MoM) -2.5 -5.8 -24.9 16.1 12.4 -4.6 -3.2 10.4 2.7 2.2 8.4 10.0 -4.3 10.6 2.0
VN-Index's 20-day volatility 18.1 17.3 45.0 26.6 16.8 26.0 30.7 8.9 9.3 14.4 12.1 15.7 41.0 46.4 12.3
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.1 – Economic growth
• Vietnam effectively contained the COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in late January, enabling the economy to maintain its recovery
Vietnam’s GDP growth
momentum, with growth rate of 4.48% YoY in 1Q21 (versus +3.68% YoY in 1Q20), impressive growth amid a global pandemic. The
maintained its recovery 1Q21 growth rate was mostly driven by an expansion of Manufacturing and Construction (+6.3% YoY in 1Q21, versus +5.15% YoY in
1Q20) and Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing (+3.16% YoY in 1Q21, versus +0.08% YoY in 1Q20).
momentum in 1Q21
• After bottoming out in 2Q20, GDP growth in 4Q20 and 1Q21 confirmed a V-shaped recovery for Vietnam’s economy (1Q20: +3.68%;
2Q20: +0.39%; 3Q20: +2.69%; 4Q20: +4.48%, 1Q21: +4.48%), demonstrated the resilience of Vietnam's economy, and promises a
stronger recovery in 2021.
Quarterly GDP growth GDP growth by sector Vietnam’s GDP growth was among the highest in Asia
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing China India Indonesia
(% YoY)
Manufacturing and Construction
9.0 (YoY) Services Malaysia Philippines Thailand
(% YoY)
Overal GDP growth
8.0 10% Vietnam
10
7.0
5
8%
6.0
0
5.0 -5
4.5 4.5 6%
4.0 3.7 -10
3.0 2.7 4% -15
2.0 -20
2%
1.0 -25
0.4
-30
0.0
0% 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: GSO Source: GSO Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.1 – Economic growth (cont’d)
GDP growth by sector in 2019, 2020, and 1Q21
1Q21 2020 2019 (% YoY)
Healthcare and social support activities
Processing and manufacturing industry
Financial , banking and insurance activities
Industry
Wholesale and retail, repair of motor vehicles
Education and training
Professional, scientific and technological activities
Information and communication
Construction
Generation and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water, water steam, air conditioning
Total growth
Water supply; waste management and treatment, sewage
Forestry
Real estate business
Services
Agriculture
Fishery
Transportation, warehousing
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Accommodations and restaurant
Administrative and support services
Mineral
Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.1 – Economic growth (cont’d)
❑ Vietnam’s economy is expected to consolidate a V-shaped recovery in 2021, with a forecast growth rate of 6.9%.
The economy to • Supportive monetary and fiscal policies will stimulus investment and consumption. Domestic consumption will regain growth momentum,
consolidate with improving consumer confidence.
V-shaped recovery • Disbursement of public investment capital should be stronger in 2021, through projects such as the Long Thanh Airport and North-South
Expressway, which also provide a positive impetus for economic growth.
• If there is no new outbreak in Vietnam and the pandemic is effectively controlled on a global scale, key economic activities, such as
imports, exports, and services will bounce back quickly, as Vietnam has been increasing its participation in the global supply chain. Free
trade agreements provide important leverage in boosting Vietnam’s exports. The economic recovery of China, Vietnam's largest trading
partner, has also played an important role in supporting export growth. Thus, Vietnam is expected to maintain a large trade surplus.
• FDI inflows are expected to grow in 2021, by benefiting from supply chain diversification after Vietnam's main partners gradually contain
COVID-19 and restart their investment promotion.
Vietnam’s 2021 GDP forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth rates
(% YoY) (% YoY)
1H Growth 2H Growth Annual Growth
9 8.6
9.0
8 7.5 7.5
7 8.0
6.5 6.7 6.7
7 6.3
6
6 7.0
5 6.0
4
5.0
3
2 4.0
1 3.0
0
2.0
WB
ADB
HSBC
Fitch Ratings
Congress
Government
IMF
Fitch Solutions
Moody's
1.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

I.2 – Industrial production
1Q21 industrial production • In 1Q20, Vietnam’s IIP was estimated to have expanded 6.5% YoY (1Q20: +5.3%; 2Q20: +1.1%; 3Q20: +2.34%; 4Q20: +4.8%). Of this, the
IIP of Manufacturing and Processing improved by 9.45% (1Q20: +7.12%, 2Q20: +3.38%, 3Q20: +3.86%, 4Q20: +8.63%). By contrast,
expanded its growth rate
Mining declined 8.24% YoY, as the exploitation of crude oil natural gas plunged.
• PMI rose to 53.6 in March from 51.6 in February, with the manufacturing sector strengthening for four consecutive months. Remarkably,
Vietnam posted an average 2012–2020 Manufacturing PMI level of 51pts.
• We believe industrial production will continue to recover in 2021, driven by: 1) Vietnam’s effective containment of COVID-19’s
recurrence; 2) economic activities gradual entry to a new-normal state, boosted by the COVID-19 vaccine rollout; 3) the maintaining of
new order growth, along with renewed increases in output, employment, and purchasing; and 4) the maintaining of PMIs of over 50
points by Vietnam’s key trade partners, signalling a solid improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector.
Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in March 2021

(% YoY)
IIP (% MoM)
IIP (% YoY) Beverages 24.5
(%) Manuafacturing and processing IIP (% YoY) Basic metals 22.3
Motor vehicles 18.7
30
Repair, maintenance, installation M&E 14.9
Rubber and plastic products 12.9
20 Electrical equipment 9.3
Furniture 9.2
10 Leather and related products 8.0
Food products 7.9
Machinery and equipment 6.3
0
Paper and paper products 6.2
Manufacturing 5.5
-10 Textiles 5.3
Seasonal effects Computer, electronic, optical products 2.4
-20 Seasonal effects Coke, refined petroleum products 2.0
Tobacco 1.6
Chemicals and chemical products 0.3
-30
Clothes 0.1
Jan 19
Oct 19
Jan 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Apr 19
Apr 20
Jul 19
Dec 19
Jul 20
Dec 20
Mar 19
Nov 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Aug 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
Feb 19
May 19
Jun 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
May 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Pharmaceuticals -1.3
Printing, recorded media reproduction -6.0
Manufacture of wood -14.1
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.2 – Industrial production (cont’d)
Vietnam’s PMI remained above the 50-point threshold for four consecutive months amid the COVID-19 pandemic
(Points) PMI 3-month average

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19 Sep 19 Mar 20 Sep 20 Mar 21
Manufacturing PMI
Region/Country Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Global 50.3 47.1 47.3 39.6 42.4 48.0 50.6 51.8 52.4 53.1 53.8 53.8 53.6 53.9 55.0
Euro Area 47.9 49.2 44.5 33.4 39.4 47.4 51.8 51.7 53.7 54.8 53.8 55.2 54.8 57.9 62.5
US 51.9 50.7 48.5 36.1 39.8 49.8 50.9 53.1 53.2 53.4 56.7 57.1 59.2 58.6 59.1
UK 50.0 51.7 47.8 32.6 40.7 50.1 53.3 55.2 54.1 53.7 55.6 57.5 54.1 55.1 58.9
Emerging Markets 51.0 44.6 49.1 42.7 45.4 49.6 51.4 52.5 52.8 53.4 53.9 52.8 52.1 51.5 51.3
China 51.1 40.3 50.1 49.4 50.7 51.2 52.8 53.1 53.0 53.6 54.9 53.0 51.5 50.9 50.6
Japan 48.8 47.8 44.8 41.9 38.4 40.1 45.2 47.2 47.7 48.7 49.0 50.0 49.8 51.4 52.7
South Korea 49.8 48.7 44.2 41.6 41.3 43.4 46.9 48.5 49.8 51.2 52.9 52.9 53.2 55.3 55.3
Vietnam 50.6 49 41.9 32.7 42.7 51.1 47.6 45.7 52.2 51.8 49.9 51.7 51.3 51.6 53.6
ASEAN 49.8 50.2 43.4 30.7 35.5 43.7 46.5 49.0 48.3 48.6 50.0 50.8 51.4 49.7 50.8
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.3 – Exports and imports
In 1Q21, the total trade surplus was estimated at US$2.03bn, with improvement in exports to US$77.3bn (+22% YoY) and imports to
Exports and imports US$75.31bn (+27.3% YoY).
maintained double-digit • External demand has gradually improved, driven by the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and Vietnam’s deepening participation in the
global supply chain.
growth rates
• Since EVFTA took effect in August 2020, the resurgence of exports to the EU has strengthened, with growth of +14.2% YoY in 1Q21.
We expect the two key markets — the US and China — as well as the new driver — the EU — to continue to boost Vietnam’s exports
in 2021 and subsequent years.
• Export and import activities are expected to flourish going forward, thanks to: 1) key trade agreements officially taking effect; 2) the
PMIs of Vietnam’s major trading partners rebounding above 50 points, signalling improving global demand; and 3) the expansion of
the domestic manufacturing sector.
Exports, imports, and trade balance Growth rates of exports and imports Trade balance by partner
Trade balance (L) Export growth
Exports (R) (% YoY) Import growth (US$bn) 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21
(US$mn) (US$mn)
Imports (R) 60 80
6,000 30,000
50
5,000 28,000
60
40
26,000
4,000
30 40
24,000
3,000
20
22,000 20
2,000
10
20,000
1,000 0
0
18,000
0 -10 -20
16,000
-1,000 14,000 -20

-40
-2,000 12,000 -30
Jan 20
Apr 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Dec 19
Dec 20
Mar 20
Jul 20
Mar 21
Aug 20
Sep 20
Nov 19
Feb 20
Jun 20
Nov 20
Feb 21
May 20
Jan 20
Apr 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Dec 19
Dec 20
Mar 20
Jul 20
Mar 21
Nov 19
Aug 20
Feb 21
Feb 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
May 20
-60
US China EU ASEAN Japan Korea
Source: GSO Source: GSO Source: GSO

I.3 – Exports and imports (cont’d.)
Exports & imports in 1Q21
Exports Imports
Value (US$bn) % YoY growth Value (US$bn) % YoY growth
1Q21 77.3 +22.0 1Q21 75.31 +26.3
Main markets Main markets
US 21.2 +32.8 China 23.8 +47.3
China 12.5 +34.3 Korea 13 +9.9
EU 9.6 +14.2 ASEAN 9.3 +26.3
ASEAN 6.5 +3.4 Japan 5.1 +4.8
South Korea 5.0 +6.4 EU 4 +15.4
Japan 4.9 -1.5 US 4 +12.3
Main products Main products
Phones and their parts 14.1 +9.3 Electronic goods, computers, and their parts 16.8 +22.0
Electronic goods, computers, and their parts 12.0 +31.3 Machinery, instrument, accessory 10.8 +30.7
Machinery, instrument, accessory 9.1 +77.2 Phones and their parts 4.9 +48.1
Textiles and garments 7.2 +1.1 Fabrics 2.9 +9.2
Shoes and sandals 4.7 +13.5 Plastic 2.9 +39.3
Wood and products 3.7 +41.5 Iron, steel 2.6 +27.8
Means of transportation and spare parts 2.7 +20.0 Automobile 2.0 +29.9
Iron, steel 1.8 +65.2 Plastic products 1.9 +15.0
Seafood 1.7 +3.3
Textile fibers 1.2 +31.0
Plastic products 1.1 +31.0
Trade balance in 1Q21: A surplus of US$2.03bn
Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

I.4 – Realized investment capital
• The disbursement of investment capital amid the COVID-19 pandemic has been a key driver of sustained economic growth. In fact,
Realized investment
realized investment capital grew 6.3% YoY in 1Q21, outpacing the 2.7% expansion in 1Q20, as realized investment capital of the State
capital was robust in (+7.5% YoY, occupied 24.1% of the total realized investment capital), non-State sector (+5.7% YoY, 57.2% of the total), and FDI sector
1Q21 (+6.5% YoY, 18.7% of the total) improved.
• Total investment capital disbursement from the state budget in 2020 reached VND399.4tr (+47.8% YoY), the highest growth rate in the
last 10 years.
Growth rate of realized investment capital State budget disbursement accelerated in 2020
(% YoY) Plan (L) Disbursement (L)

Total the State Non-State FDI (VNDtr)
(%)
20 Disbursement growth (L) % Disbursement/Plan (R)
600 80
15
70
500
60
10
400 50
5 40
300
30
0 200 20
10
(5) 100
0
0 -10
(10)
2017 2018 2019 2020
1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21
Source: GSO Source: Ministry of Finance (Vietnam)

I.5 – FDI
Registered FDI ❑ In 1Q21, total newly- and additionally-registered capital recorded an impressive recovery of 41.4% YoY to reach US$9.3bn.
• There were a total of 234 newly-licensed projects (-69.1% YoY), with registered FDI of US$7.2bn (+30.6% YoY).
accelerated in 1Q21
• Notably, additionally-registered FDI rocketed upward by 97.4% YoY to reach US$2.1bn in 1Q21.
• Asia continued to be the largest FDI investor in 2020 and 1Q21, led by Singapore, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea. This
reflects ongoing supply-chain restructuring, with Vietnam continuing to benefit from this restructuring.
❑ Realized FDI in 1Q20 was estimated at US$4.1bn (+6.5% YoY).
• FDI disbursement in 1Q21 showed its resilience, compared with the slowdown seen in 2020 (-1.9% YoY).
FDI attraction and disbursement (2014−1Q20) Some major FDI projects in 1Q21
Registered FDI (L) FDI disbursement (L)

Project Country Registered capital Products
Registered FDI growth (R) FDI disbursement growth (R)
(US$mn) (% YoY)
Long An 1 and 2 Thermal Building a thermal power
30,000 50 Singapore ~ US$3.1bn
Power Plant project plant
40
25,000 O Mon 2 Thermal Power Building a thermal power
Japan ~ US$1.31bn
Plant project plant
30
20,000
20 LG Display Hai Phong Additionally-registered
Korea OLED screen products
project capital of US$750mn
15,000 10
Additionally-registered
Radial tire
China capital of more than Radial tires
0 manufacturing
US$312mn
10,000
-10 Kodi New Material Registered capital of
Singapore Tablets, laptops
Vietnam Plant US$270mn
5,000
-20
JA Solar PV Vietnam
photovoltaic cell China US$210mn Photovoltaic cell panels
0 -30
technology
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
Source: GSO Source: GSO

I.6 – Domestic consumption
❑ Retail and consumption activities continued to recover in 1Q21, accompanied by Vietnam’s COVID-19 containment efforts and
Retail sales maintained rebounded consumer demand compared with the same period last year. Retail sales of consumer goods and services in March
recovery momentum 2021 increased by 9.2% YoY (versus -5.4% YoY in March 2020).
❑ In 1Q21, total retail sales of consumer goods and services increased by 5.1% YoY (versus +2.6% YoY in 2020). If excluding the price
factor, the growth was 4.4% YoY.
• Retail sales recorded a rapid recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic was brought under control in May 2020, and personal
incomes have improved, thanks to economic activities gradually returning to normal, accompanied by rising consumer
demand in the two months prior to the Tet holiday.
• Accommodation and Catering Services (-3% YoY) narrowed its decline in 1Q21 (versus -4.3% YoY in 2M21 and -8.5% YoY in
1Q20), thanks to boosting domestic demand, along with effective COVID-19 containment.
Retail sales growth (% YoY)

(% YoY) Total
Retail sale growth, excluding the price factor Retail sale growth Retail sales
(% YoY)
15 Accommodation & Catering Services
20 Traveling Services
Other Services
10 10
0
5
-10
0 -20
-30
-5
-40
-10 -50
-60
-15
-70
Jan 20
Apr 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Dec 20
Dec 19
Mar 20
Jul 20
Mar 21
Aug 20
Nov 19
Feb 20
Jun 20
Sep 20
Nov 20
Feb 21
May 20
Oct 19
Jan 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Apr 19
Apr 20
Jul 19
Dec 19
Jul 20
Dec 20
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Jun 20
Aug 19
Nov 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
May 19
Jun 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
May 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
Source: GSO
Source: GSO

I.7 – International tourism
• Traveling Services (-60.1% YoY) continued to be hit hard by COVID-19, with international arrivals to Vietnam plummeting 98.7% YoY in
International tourism
1Q21 to reach 48,100 arrivals. As Vietnam has not reopened borders for tourism since 2Q20, international visitors are mainly experts
frozen since COVID-19 and foreign technical workers working on projects in Vietnam.
outbreak • International visitors are likely to recover, albeit at a slow pace, driven by: 1) the global rollout of COVID-19 vaccines since March 2021;
and 2) Vietnam’s successful containment of COVID-19 and implementation of its tourism stimulus program.
Drop in international visitors since COVID-19 outbreak Monthly growth in international visitors
('000 arrivals) (% YoY) (% MoM)
Growth YoY (R) International visitors (L)
76.4
80
2,200 50 58.0
60
2,000
30 40
1,800 19.6
16.6 17.3
1,600 10 20 7.2 8.8
1,400 0
-10
1,200
-20 -7.9
1,000 -30 -13.4 -15.3
800 -40
-50 -37.7 -38.0
600 -60
400 -70 -63.8 -61.2
-80
200
-90 -100
0 -94.2
-200 -110 -120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Jan 19
Oct 19
Jan 20
Oct 20
Jan 21
Mar 21
Dec 18
Apr 19
Dec 19
Apr 20
Dec 20
Mar 19
Jun 19
Jul 19
Mar 20
Jun 20
Jul 20
Nov 19
Aug 19
Aug 20
Nov 20
Feb 19
May 19
Sep 19
Feb 20
May 20
Sep 20
Feb 21
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21

I.8 – Unemployment
▪ Unemployment declined gradually in 2H20 and 1Q21, from 2.73% in 2Q20 to 2.42% in 1Q21, thanks to increased recruitment
Labor market gradually
activities, following a return to normal economic activities and a rise in the number of businesses resuming operations. The
flourished in 1Q21 decline in the unemployment rate helped solidify the recovery of domestic demand.
▪ In 1Q21, average registered capital per newly-established enterprise increased 29.2% YoY, with 29,300 newly-established
enterprises (-1.4% YoY) and registered capital of VND447.8tn (+27.5% YoY). There were 14,700 re-operated enterprises (-0.5%
YoY). Meanwhile, the number of enterprises suspending operations for a definite time rose 28.2% YoY (versus +62.2% YoY in
2020), while there were nearly 11,300 enterprises waiting for dissolution procedures, down 7.35% YoY (versus -13.8% YoY in
2020).
Vietnam’s unemployment rate Growth rate of number of enterprises (monthly)

(%) Newly-established enterprises
2.8 Re-operated enterprises
2.7 (% YoY) Enterprises suspending operation for a definite time
2.7 Enterprises waiting for dissolution procedures
2.6 250
2.5
2.5
2.4 200
2.4 2.4
150
2.3
2.2 100
2.1 50
2
0
1.9
-50
1.8
Dec 20
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Mar 16
Mar 17
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Mar 21
Sep 17
Jun 15
Sep 15
Jun 16
Sep 16
Jun 17
Jun 18
Sep 18
Jun 19
Sep 19
Jun 20
Sep 20
-100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 20 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21
Source: GSO
Source: GSO

I.9 – Exchange rate
• Compared with the start of the year, the VND/USD$ decreased by a modest 0.1% as of end-March, marking a slight appreciation of
VND/US$ exchange rate the VND against the US dollar. Most other Asian currencies depreciated against the US dollar in 1Q21, with the Dollar Index reaching
remained stable 92.8 at the end of March 2021 — the highest level in four months.
• The VND/US$ exchange rate is expected to remain relatively stable, thanks to: 1) the trade surplus remaining at a high level,
alongside a continued rise in foreign exchange reserves; 2) continued positive FDI inflows into Vietnam, thanks to production shifts;
3) the SBV's flexible mechanism for regulating the supply and demand of foreign currencies, which helps stabilize the exchange rate;
and 4) expectations for minimal appreciation of the US dollar in 2021, due to large-scale economic stimulus packages and Fed
support policies.
• Meanwhile, we expect the VND to continue to appreciate within a range of around 0.5% against the US dollar in 2021, due to
Vietnam’s solid economic fundamentals and increasing pressure from the placing of Vietnam on the list of currency manipulation
countries by the US.
VND/US$ exchange rate VND is relatively stable compared with other Asian currencies
(VND) Official rate (SBV) Unofficial rate Commercial banks GBP CNY VND INR THB
(End-2019 =0%)
24,050 MYR PHP IDR JPY KRW
20
23,850 15
10
23,650
5
23,450
0
-5
23,250
-10
23,050 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 20 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21
22,850 Note: JPY = Japanese yen, PHP = Philippines peso, CNY = Chinese yuan, VND = Vietnamese dong, INR =
Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Indian rupee, KRW = Korean won, MYR = Malaysian ringgit, THB = Thailand baht, IDR = Indonesian Rupiah
Source: Bloomberg, as of 03/30/2021
Source: FiinPro, SBV, updated 03/28/2020

I.10 – Inflation
❑ CPI increased 1.16% YoY in March, and 1Q21 average CPI edged upward 0.29% YoY, the lowest level in last 20 years.
Inflation remained • CPI in 1Q21 increased on the back of: 1) rising prices of rice (+8.55% YoY), as well as food and foodstuff (+0.49% YoY); 2) a 7.58%
YoY rise in gas prices; 3) a 4.49% YoY rise in the price of educational services, due to the impact of increasing tuition.
stable
• CPI was dragged down by: 1) the decline in demand for travel, due to the pandemic; 2) a 9.54% YoY decline in average domestic
gasoline and oil prices in 1Q21; and 3) falling electricity prices (-7.18% YoY in 1Q21).
❑ In 2021, inflation is expected to be around 4%, in light of: 1) the expected slow recovery of Transportation; Culture, Entertainment,
and Tourism, due to the impact of COVID-19; and 2) policies to ensure supply-demand balance and market stability. However,
inflation risks will likely increase in 2H21, due to: 1) effective worldwide control of the pandemic, prompting a rapid recovery of basic
commodity prices; and 2) the impact of prolonged easing policies.
CPI: MoM and YoY CPI by industry (%)

1Q21 Average
CPI MoM (L) CPI YoY (R) Items YoY YTD MoM
(% YoY)
2.0% 7% Overall CPI 1.16 1.31 -0.27 0.29
1.5%
Food and Foodstuff 1.33 0.77 -1.46 1.58
5%
Beverage and Tobacco 1.73 0.85 -0.37 1.51
1.0%
3% Garment, Footwear and Hats 0.81 0.50 -0.20 0.71
0.5% Housing and Construction Materials 0.82 1.84 0.24 -0.82
1%
0.0% Equipment and Household Appliances 0.47 0.23 -0.05 0.52
-1% Medicines and Healthcare 0.21 0.04 0.02 0.27
-0.5%
Transportation 0.48 6.24 2.29 -5.55
-3%
-1.0% Post and Telecommunications -0.57 -0.20 -0.13 -0.55
-1.5% -5% Education 4.04 0.34 0.01 4.08

Culture, Entertainment and Tourism -0.71 0.17 -0.03 -1.80
-2.0% -7%
Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Other Services 1.55 0.70 -0.28 1.65

Key macroeconomic indicators
Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021F
Real GDP growth (%, YoY) 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.9
Export growth (%, YoY) 13.8 8.1 9.0 21.1 13.2 8.4 6.5 8.0
Import growth (%, YoY) 12 12.1 5.6 20.8 11.1 6.8 3.6 9.5
Trade balance (US$ bn) 2.0 -3.2 2.6 2.7 6.8 11.1 19.1 16.7
FDI disbursement (US$ bn) 12.4 14.5 15.8 17.5 19.1 20.4 20.0 21.6
Retail growth, excluding inflation (%, YoY) 6.2 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.4 9.2 -1.2 6.0
Average CPI (%) 4.1 0.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 4.0
Foreign exchange reserve (US$ bn) 34.5 30.5 40 52 58 70 98 105
Credit growth (%, YoY) 14.2 17.3 18.7 18.2 13.9 14.0 11.0 12.5
Exchange rate VND/US$ 21,388 22,485 22,761 22,698 23,175 23,314 23,267 23,151
Change in VND/US$ (%) 1.4 5.1 1.2 -0.3 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.5
Public debt (%/GDP) 58 61 63.7 61.4 58.4 58.3 59.0 58.5
Source: GSO, Vietnam Customs, MPI, Bloomberg, WB, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

II. Vietnam stock market review
• The strong correction triggered by the third wave of COVID-19 in late-January was short-lived, with the VN-
Index finding a temporary bottom at 998 pts. Thanks to COVID-19 containment efforts, Vietnam returned from
the Lunar New Year holiday in a positive fashion. However, stocks succumbed to profit-taking after the VN-
Index reached the 1,200-point threshold — an all-time high. Banks, Real Estate, and Materials were the main
driver of the market in March, as well in 1Q21.
• The global stock market enjoyed a strong rally amid a wave of stimulus monetary and fiscal policies, as well as
expectations for a post-pandemic improvement in economic growth. Vietnam was among the best performers
in the Asian market.
• Foreign investors sold a net amount of around US$532mn in March, cumulating the YTD net outflow to nearly
$US809mn. We see that the offshore investors continued to withdraw from Asian markets in 2021 year-to-date
(Taiwan: -US$12.1bn, S. Korea: -US$8.3bn, Thailand: -US$986mn, Philippines: -US$947mn, and Malaysia: -
US429mn), following a dismal 2020. Bucking the trend, the Indian and Indonesian markets recorded net inflows
of US$7.6bn, and US$847mn, respectively. In our opinion, the appreciation of the US dollar, unprecedented
fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US, and strong rallies in the US stock market, driven by the tech stocks
(perceived as a COVID-19-immune sector), have diverted offshore money flows to the US since 2020.
Furthermore, increasing US Treasury yields also boosted this trend.

II.1 – Market performance review
• The global stock market enjoyed a strong rally amid a wave of stimulus monetary and fiscal policies, as well as expectations for a
Standout performer post-pandemic improvement in economic growth. Vietnam was among the best performers in the Asian market.
• Notably, the S&P 500 Index rallied strongly and continuously, establishing new record highs to close at 3,756 points as of end-
2020 (+16.3% YoY and +67.9%, from a three-year low of 2,237 points in March 2020). This was reasonable when it comes to the
unprecedented size of the fiscal stimulus package, supportive monetary policies, and the leading role of high-tech stocks (namely
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, and Netflix).
Global performance monitor: Monthly change (%)
Vietnam US MSCI DM MSCI EM MSCI FM Korea Japan China Hong Kong Taiwan India Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore
Month VNINDEX SPX MXWO MXEF MXFM KOSPI NKY SHCOMP HIS TWSE SENSEX SET FBMKLCI JCI PCOMP STI
01/2020 -2.5% -0.2% -0.7% -4.7% -0.1% -3.6% -1.9% -2.4% -6.7% -4.2% -1.3% -4.2% -3.6% -5.7% -7.9% -2.1%
02/2020 -5.8% -8.4% -8.6% -5.3% -5.9% -6.2% -8.9% -3.2% -0.7% -1.8% -6.0% -11.5% -3.2% -8.2% -5.7% -4.5%
03/2020 -24.9% -12.5% -13.5% -15.6% -23.2% -11.7% -10.5% -4.5% -9.7% -14.0% -23.1% -16.0% -8.9% -16.8% -21.6% -17.6%
04/2020 16.1% 12.7% 10.8% 9.0% 6.0% 11.0% 6.7% 4.0% 4.4% 13.2% 14.4% 15.6% 4.2% 3.9% 7.1% 5.8%
05/2020 12.4% 4.5% 4.6% 0.6% 5.4% 4.2% 8.3% -0.3% -6.8% -0.5% -3.8% 3.2% 4.7% 0.8% 2.4% -4.3%
06/2020 -4.6% 1.8% 2.5% 7.0% 1.6% 3.9% 1.9% 4.6% 6.4% 6.2% 7.7% -0.3% 1.9% 3.2% 6.3% 3.2%
07/2020 -3.2% 5.5% 4.7% 8.4% -1.1% 6.7% -2.6% 10.9% 0.7% 9.0% 7.7% -0.8% 6.8% 5.0% -4.5% -2.3%
08/2020 10.4% 7.0% 6.5% 2.1% 7.9% 3.4% 6.6% 2.6% 2.4% -0.6% 2.7% -1.3% -4.9% 1.7% -0.7% 0.1%
09/2020 2.7% -3.9% -3.6% -1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% -5.2% -6.8% -0.6% -1.5% -5.6% -1.3% -7.0% -0.3% -2.6%
10/2020 2.2% -2.8% -3.1% 2.0% 0.9% -2.6% -0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.2% 4.1% -3.4% -2.5% 5.3% 7.8% -1.7%
11/2020 8.4% 10.8% 12.7% 9.2% 4.0% 14.3% 15.0% 5.2% 9.3% 9.4% 11.4% 17.9% 6.5% 9.4% 7.4% 15.8%
12/2020 10.0% 3.7% 4.1% 7.2% 5.6% 10.9% 3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 7.4% 8.2% 2.9% 4.1% 6.5% 5.1% 1.3%
01/2021 -4.3% -1.1% -1.1% 3.0% 0.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.9% 2.8% -3.1% 1.2% -3.7% -2.0% -7.4% 2.1%
02/2021 10.6% 2.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 4.7% 0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 6.5% 2.8% 1.6%
03/2021 2.0% 3.9% 2.9% -1.5% -0.2% 1.6% 0.7% -1.9% -2.1% 3.0% 0.8% 6.0% -0.3% -4.1% -5.2% 7.3%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

II.2 – Key driving events in 2020 and 1Q21
VN-Index movement and key events
(Pts) VN-Index
breaks
1,300 1,200-point
Vietnam threshold
imports
VN-Index plummets
first
after reaching the
batch of
strong resistance of 3
Record number of new COVID-19
1,200 pts 4
1,200 accounts opened; vaccine 6
daily turnover has
continuously recorded new
peaks since May 2020 UKVFTA takes 1 2
5
effect
temporarily
1,100 State Securities
COVID- Commission (SSC)
19 COVID-19 vaccine
Vietnam's stock development shows solid requests
breaks implementation of
out in market reflects news progression, with Moderna
of COVID-19 outbreak and Pfizer claiming highly temporary transfer
China from Ho Chi Minh
at reopening session effective vaccine results (over
1,000 after Tet holiday 94%) New cases of COVID-19 City Stock Exchange
community infection (HOSE) to Hanoi
appear in Hai Duong and Stock Exchange
VND285tr credit Quang Ninh; Hai Duong (HNX)
SBV cuts refinancing
support package and implements social
rate to 4% RCEP
a fiscal package worth distancing from Jan. 28,
VND30tr officially 2021
900 signed
Many
WHO declares countries Key events in March and early-April:
COVID-19 outbreak ease 1) National People's Congress (China)
a pandemic lockdowns SBV cuts
EVFTA officially 2) US Congress passes US$1.9tn stimulus package
800 refinancing
comes into 3) Fed keeps policy rate unchanged and expects key rate to
rate to 4.5%
effect remain near zero through 2023
Circular 01/2020/TT-
4) Moody's revises outlook for long-term local and foreign
NHNN on debt Pandemic
rescheduling exemption
Support currency deposit and issuer ratings of 15 Vietnamese banks
package of recurrence 5) IPO of Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF
or reduction of interest in Da Nang
VND62tr 6) State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Circular 03/2021/TT-
and fees
700 NHNN on April 2, 2021, amending Cir. 01/2020/TT-NHNN to
extend debt moratorium for loans hit by COVID-19 and allow
SBV cuts refinancing Social distancing banks to apply 3-year provisioning roadmap for these loans.
rate by 100bps to measures enacted Circular 03 will become effective from May 17, 2021.
5%
600
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

II.3 – Bull and bear market stats for VN-Index
A brief history of Vietnam’s stock market (VN-Index): Bull and bear market stats
1st bull 1st bear 2nd bull 2nd bear 3rd bull 3rd bear 4th bull 4th bear 5th bull
(pts) 13 months 28 months 41 months 24 months 8 months 27 months 76 months 24 months 12 months
+471% -77% +794% -82% +192% -46% +258% -45% +81%
1,300 2
1.9
1,100
1.8
1.7
900
1.6
700 1.5
1.4
500
1.3
1.2
300
1.1
100 1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Govt plans on
High GDP growth (6– Young workforce (avg. Low GDP per capita  Income Abundant natural
Drivers improving Political stability
7% pa) age = 30) ($2,500)  Urbanisation resources
infrastructure, welfare

II.4 – Key indicators for Vietnam stock market
Key indicators by bourse
Ho Chi Minh Exchange (HSX) Hanoi Exchange (HNX) Unlisted Public Company Market (UPCOM)
All bourses
(Since 7/30/2000) (Since 3/08/2005) (Since 6/24/2009)
2021: 397 2021: 351 2021: 908
# of members
2009: 196 (↑2x) 2009: 257 (↑1.4x) 2009: 34 (↑27x)
2021: 193 2021: 14 2021: 46.5
Market cap (US$ bn)
2009: 27 (↑7x) 2009: 7 (↑2x) 2009: 0.2 (↑200x)
Market cap/GDP 70.8 5.1 17.0
Free float ratio 43.0 66.7 43.8
Foreign ownership (%) 18.3 5.2 2.9
2019 stock return (%) 7.7 -1.7 7.1
2020 stock return (%) 14.9 98.1 31.6
ADTV (mn shares) 396.0 77.9 37.9
ADTT (VNDbn) 7,755 972 487
P/E (x) 18.4 22.0 30.0
P/B (x) 2.5 2.0 2.7
Net profit margin (%) 11.2 6.2 5.0
EPS growth (%) 6.5 3.7 -13.5
ROE (%) 13.6 9.0 8.6
Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.2 1.7
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research; data as of March 31, 2021
ADTV = Average Daily Trading Volume in 1 year; ADTT= Average Daily Trading Turnover in 1 year
Vietnam’s key indices
Last price Market cap Price performance (%) Valuation

Indices
(pts) (VNDtr) 1M 3M 9M 12M P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
VN-INDEX 1,191 4,465 2.0 7.9 44.4 14.9 18.5 2.5 13.6
VN30 Index 1,196 3,083 1.9 11.7 55.2 21.8 15.4 2.7 17.5
VN70 Index 1,463 553 5.7 15.6 70.1 36.3 19.5 1.5 7.7
HNX INDEX 287 326 15.0 41.1 161.2 98.1 22.0 2.0 9.0
HNX30 Index 422 117 15.4 30.4 100.7 80.4 16.9 1.4 8.2
UPCoM Index 81 1,080 6.2 9.3 46.6 31.6 29.6 2.7 8.8
VNFINLEAD 1,591 1,223 5.9 19.1 82.3 40.0 12.0 1.8 15.5
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg; data as of March 31, 2021

II.5 – Stock market review by industry
Market cap Performance (%) Monthly cash flow heatmap P/E P/B ROE
GICS Industry group
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
(VNDbn) 1M 3M 9M 12M (x) (x) (%)
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
Automobiles & Components 8,497 7.2 18.7 51.3 16.3 22.9 1.8 13.6
Banks 1,334,103 3.8 12.3 49.9 25.1 17.0 2.5 17.6
Capital Goods 174,983 3.3 14.1 66.8 39.3 21.3 1.8 13.6
Commercial & Professional Services 4,712 3.1 2.2 19.3 6.8 13.7 1.5 10.9
Consumer Durables & Apparel 41,550 16.5 43.3 175.2 51.3 26.1 3.1 17.0
Consumer Services 9,296 4.5 26.3 25.8 -13.3 71.5 3.1 -1.2
Diversified Financials 62,580 4.4 3.6 113.7 80.8 18.8 2.1 13.4
Energy 86,763 -4.4 6.5 38.9 -1.0 78.8 2.7 4.2
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 537,165 -2.1 -4.1 26.9 20.6 54. 9 5.7 20.8
Health Care Equipment & Services 930 5.8 -6.8 35.3 43.2 9.6 1.1 4.3
Household & Personal Products 12,031 4.6 29.1 2.3 4.2 11.5 2.7 25.3
Insurance 50,904 1.1 -9.8 28.8 -2.3 27.0 2.1 8.1
Materials 376,845 3.4 8.6 115.6 73.8 51.9 2.6 16.5
Media & Entertainment 1,220 -1.8 -15.4 -24.1 24.6 15.7 3.1 5.0
Pharmaceuticals 35,366 2.3 3.6 22.5 20.0 19.1 2.9 16.2
Real Estate 1,098,794 3.0 15.0 41.4 7.4 16.4 4.3 17.3
Retailing 68,818 -3.2 8.3 57.3 9.6 18.7 3.7 26.0
Software & Services 65,193 2.4 29.6 67.9 16.4 20.1 3.9 20.8
Technology Hardware & Equip. 5,070 24.6 37.6 207.8 272.6 19.3 4.4 25.7
Telecommunication Services 1,177 -1.9 142.0 178.0 34.4 103 1.8 1.7
Transportation 177,177 1.5 8.4 35.3 3.0 7.0 4.6 -17.4
Utilities 260,760 1.5 2.6 27.7 -2.0 20.3 2.7 14.0

Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg; data as of March 31, 2021

II.6 – Key indicators for Vietnam stock market (cont’d)
Performance by industry in 2020 (%) Performance by industry in 1Q21 (%)
After COVID-19 was controlled Pre COVID-19 1Q21 Mar-21
Technology Hardware & Equipment Telecommunication Services
Diversified Financials Consumer Durables & Apparel
Materials Technology Hardware & Equipment
Consumer Durables & Apparel Software & Services
Capital Goods Household & Personal Products
Health Care Equipment & Services Consumer Services
Insurance Automobiles & Components
Retailing Real Estate
Banks Capital Goods
Telecommunication Services Banks
VN-Index Materials
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Transportation
Real Estate Retailing
Software & Services VN-INDEX
Energy Energy
Utilities Diversified Financials
Transportation Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Commercial & Professional Services Utilities
Automobiles & Components Commercial & Professional Services
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Household & Personal Products Health Care Equipment & Services
Consumer Services Insurance
Media & Entertainment Media & Entertainment
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of end Dec 31, 2020. Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg. Data as of end Mar 31, 2021.

II.7 – Foreign investment review
Foreign investors • Foreign investors sold a net amount of around US$532mn in March, for a YTD net outflow of nearly $US809mn. We note that offshore
investors have continued to withdraw from Asian markets thus far in 2021 (Taiwan: -US$12.1bn; S. Korea: -US$8.3bn; Thailand: -US$986mn;
maintained Philippines: -US$947mn; and Malaysia: -US429mn), following a dismal 2020. Bucking the trend, the Indian and Indonesian markets recorded
selling strategy net inflows of US$7.6bn and US$847mn, respectively.
• In 2020, the Vietnam market recorded a net outflow of US$876mn. Other Asian markets showed similar results, including S. Korea and
Taiwan, with net outflows of US$20bn and US$16bn, respectively. By contrast, the US, China, and Euro Area attracted offshore inflows of
US$368.3bn, US$221.1bn, and US$133.5bn, respectively.
• In our opinion, the appreciation of the US dollar, increasing US Treasury yields, and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US
have all helped to attract offshore inflows. Furthermore, strong rallies in the US stock market, driven by tech stocks (perceived as a COVID-
19-immune sector) also boosted this trend.
Foreign net buying/selling by year and month (unit: US$mn) Capital flows of foreign investors in Asian markets
1,421 1,887 Market

Mar-2021 1Q21 2020 2019
1,163 (US$mn)
801
349 173 156 134 155 100 182
1
Vietnam -532 -809 -876 182
-345
-876 -809 S. Korea -1,312 -8,348 -20,082 924
2007 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2021
India 2,627 7,621 23,373 14,234
(YTD)
Taiwan -5,523 -12,137 -15,997 9,377
Indonesia -186 847 -3,220 3,465
Malaysia -7 -429 -5,782 -2,683
Phillipines -483 -947 -2,513 -240

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
2019 2020 2021 Thailand -1 -986 -8,287 -1,496
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg.

III. Vietnam stock market prospects
• The world is entering the recovery stage, with vaccine rollouts and fiscal and monetary policies remaining very
supportive. Under this favorable backdrop, fueled by solid FDI inflows, multiple trade deals (such as CPTPP,
RCEP, and EVFTA), and accelerated public investment, we expect the pace of economic recovery to remain
strong. Therefore, we project VN-Index’s EPS growth to accelerate to around 20% in 2021, from an estimated -
0.6% in 2020. Consensus forecasts also express similar expectations.
• Eventually, high EPS growth expectations will propel the market in the long term. Based on historical precedent,
we expect a reasonable P/E range of 14x–18x. In other words, we expect the VN-Index to fluctuate within the
range of 1,050–1,400 pts. The market’s main drivers were as follows:
1) The COVID-19 pandemic is effectively controlled domestically and globally, along with the rollout of
vaccinations.
2) Fiscal and monetary policies remain very supportive. A lower policy rate means a lower cost of capital, which
will play an important role in investment and consumption.
3) Buoyant market liquidity will remain intact, thanks to emerging new accounts of retail investors.
4) Emerging-market classification visibility, along with initiatives for improving stock market transparency, will
attract offshore investors, funds, and ETFs.
5) Others: A wave of bank IPOs or transfers to the main bourse; SOE privatization.

III.1 – Historical valuations
Vietnam market is relatively • The current P/E of VN-Index is 18.5x, 29% higher than the 10-year average of 14.3x.
• Amid a wave of stimulus monetary and fiscal policies, the global stock market enjoyed a strong rally in 2020, with the valuations of
attractive many stock markets at or over their 10-year P/E average plus two standards (SDs). Meanwhile, the VN-Index is trading under that
threshold; in other words, Vietnam’s market valuation remains reasonable when compared with its own historical P/E band chart.
P/E of VN-Index: 10-year band chart 10-year P/E band chart of VN-Index and other markets
(x) P/E -2SD -1SD (x) 10-yr Avg +/-2 SD 10-year average Current P/E
10-year average +1SD +2SD

22
50
20 45
19.9
40
18
17.1 35
16 30
14.3 25
14
20
12
11.5 15
10 10
8.7
5
8
0
6
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 Mar 21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

III.2 – Relative valuations
Vietnam market is relatively • In terms of relative valuation, Vietnam’s market is attractive compared with other markets, with high ROE and low P/E. Looking
forward, valuations continue to be attractive for long-term investors in terms of economic growth, and corporate earnings prospect
attractive (which are forecast to outperform other markets).
Vietnam’s market is relatively attractive, with high ROE and low P/E Vietnam’s market is expected with high EPS growth and low forward P/E
16 Korea
47
Vietnam
14
MSCI FM 39
12 US 31
Taiwan
India
MSCI EM
Taiwan
China 23
10 Hong Kong
MSCI EM MSCI DM Malaysia
2019-2021 EPS CAGR (%)

15
ROE (%)
China
8 Indonesia
Philippines MSCI DM
US
Malaysia Japan 7 MSCI FM
Vietnam India
6 Japan
Thailand -1
Thailand
4 Indonesia Philippines
Korea
-9 Hong Kong
Singapore
2 Singapore
-17
12 17 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
P/E (x) Forward P/E (x)

III.3 – Corporate earnings outlook
• With the strong momentum in the pace of economic recovery, we project VN-Index’s EPS growth to accelerate to around 20% in
Corporate profits to 2021, from an estimated -0.6% in 2020. Consensus forecasts also express similar expectations. Market watchers expect a broad-
based recovery in corporate earnings in 2021. According to the Bloomberg consensus, the EPS of VN-Index members is expected
rebound strongly in 2021, to grow about 23.7% YoY in 2021, and 23.5% YoY in 2022.
following economic • The prospects of Technology Hardware & Equipment, Software & Services, Banks, Diversified Financials, and Materials remain
recovery intact, following impressive growth in 2020.
• By contrast, Consumer Services and Transportation are expected to bounce back significantly, thanks to the rollout of vaccination
and resuming normalcy. That said, both will still see incomplete recoveries in 2021, when compared with 2019 EPS levels.
Rosy prospects for OP margin expansion and bottom-line growth Expectations of a broad-based recovery
(% YoY) EPS growth Operating margin (RHS) (%) 2020 EPS growth 2021 EPS growth
140 14
EPS growth CAGR 2019-2021 (RHS)
13.5 (% YoY) (% YoY)

120
250 50
13
100
200 40
12.5
80
150 30
12
60 100 20
11.5
40 50 10
11
20 0 0
10.5
0 -50 -10
10
-20 9.5 -100 -20
-40 9
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021F

III.4 – Market valuation
• High EPS growth expectations will propel the market in the long term. Based on historical precedent, we expect a reasonable
Forward 12-month looking, P/E range of 14x–18x. In other words, we expect the VN-Index to fluctuate in the range of 1,050–1,400 pts, with a base-case
target of 1,227pts. The market’s main drivers are as follows:
VN-Index could reach
1,400pts on higher EPS 1) The COVID-19 pandemic is effectively controlled domestically and globally, along with the rollout of vaccinations.
growth expectation 2) Fiscal and monetary policies remain very supportive. A lower policy rate means a lower cost of capital, which will play an
important role in investment and consumption.
3) Buoyant market liquidity will remain intact, thanks to emerging new accounts of retail investors in the era of low interest
rates.
4) Vietnam could be a potential candidate for an emerging market upgrade by 2022, or as late as 2023. According to our
calculation, if entering the MSCI EM Index, the proportion of Vietnam's stock portfolio would be 0.47%–0.67%, equivalent
to a disbursement rate of US$144–205mn; if entering the FTSE EM Index, the proportion of Vietnam's stock portfolio is
expected to be at 0.46%–0.66%, equivalent to a disbursement rate of US$499–716mn.
5) Others: A wave of bank IPOs or transfers to the main bourse; SOE privatization.
Reasonable range of VN-Index from 1,050 to 1,400 pts
Fair P/E
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
14% 729 874 1,020 1,166 1,311 1,457 1,603
16% 741 890 1,038 1,186 1,334 1,483 1,631

2021 EPS growth
18% 754 905 1,056 1,207 1,357 1,508 1,659
20% 767 920 1,074 1,227 1,380 1,534 1,687
22% 780 936 1,092 1,248 1,403 1,559 1,715
24% 792 951 1,109 1,268 1,426 1,585 1,743
26% 805 966 1,127 1,288 1,449 1,611 1,772
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

III.5 – Market drivers
1) The COVID-19 pandemic is effectively controlled domestically and globally, along with the rollout of vaccinations
(mn people) (%)
New cases per million (L) Total vaccinations per hundred (R) The number of people to be vaccinated (L)
18 18
100 8 % of the population (R)
16 16
90 7
14 14
6
80
12 12
5
70 10 Vietnam plan to distribute COVID-19 vaccines 10
4 to roughly 16.8% of the population by end-
60 8 8
3
6 6
50
2
4 4
40 1
2 2
30 0
- 0
Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21
1Q21 2Q21 3Q21─4Q21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg Source: Ministry of Health (Vietnam)
2) Fiscal and monetary policies remain very supportive

Fed funds target rate (upper bound) BOK policy rate
(%) BOJ policy rate ECB Deposit facility rate (%)

4 China LPR 1Yr (RHS) Vietnam refinancing rate (RHS) 16
3 14
3
12
2
10
2
8
1
6
1
4
0
-1 2
-1 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: IMF estimates the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic by country (% of 2020 GDP). Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg

III.5 – Market drivers (cont’d)
3) Monetary easing stance will be maintained; buoyant market liquidity will be intact
(# of Daily avg traded value (RHS) (VND bn)
LDR (RHS) Loan growth (YoY) M2 growth (YoY)
accounts)
23% 83% Total new accounts
100,000 18,000
82% 90,000 16,000

21%
80,000 14,000
81%
19% 70,000
12,000
80% 60,000
17% 10,000
50,000
79% 8,000
15% 40,000
78% 6,000
30,000
13% 20,000 4,000
77%
10,000 2,000
11% 76%
0 0
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jul 19
Mar 20
Jul 20
Mar 19
May 19
Nov 19
Nov 20
Sep 19
May 20
Sep 20
9% 75%
Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, State Bank of Vietnam Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, Bloomberg, Vietnam Securities Depository
4) Emerging-market classification visibility, along with initiatives for improving stock market transparency
Scenario of MSCI upgrade Optimistic Base case Pessimistic

Scenario of FTSE upgrade Optimistic Base case Pessimistic
June June
MSCI Emerging Market Status After 2024
2022 2023
Sep Sep
FTSE Emerging Market From Sep 2024
2022 2023
June June
MSCI Emerging Markets Index After 2025
2023 2024
May-Sep May-Sep
Disbursement time After 2026
2024 2025
Disbursement duration 2 years 3–3.5 years > 4 years
Disbursement duration 2 years
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, MSCI Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research, FTSE

III.6 – Upcoming market events
World events
Date Country Event Previous Forecast
1/4/2021 CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) 50.9 51.6
2/4/2021 US Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar.) 468K 647K
6/4/2021 AU RBA Interest Rate Decision 0.1% 0.1%
8/4/2021 US FOMC Minutes
8/4/2021 JP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) 33.8 36
9/4/2021 CN Inflation Rate YoY (Mar.) -0.2% 0.2%
13/4/2021 US Inflation Rate YoY (Mar.)
20/4/2021 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y 3.85%
24/4/2021 JP Inflation Rate YoY (Mar.) -0.4%

27/4/2021 JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1%
29/4/2021 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25%
29/4/2021 US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 2.5%
30/4/2021 JP Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
Vietnam's events
15/04/2021 VN Last trading date of VN30 Index Futures April 2021
19/04/2021 VN Update VN30 Index's members

19/04/2021 VN Announcement of Vietnam Diamond Index (VN Diamond) portfolio
19/04/2021 VN Announcement of Vietnam Financial Select Sector Index (VNFINSELECT) portfolio
29/04/2021 VN Announcement of VFMVN30 ETF portfolio
29/04/2021 VN Announcement of Vietnam economic data in April 2021
Source: Investing.com, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compiled

IV – Stock recommendation
Stock Ratings (TP: VND/Upside)
Industry
Investment themes Industry
ratings Buy Trading Buy
(Upside above 20%) (Upside: 10%–20%)
IDC SZC BCM

Industrial
FDI flow Overweight 53,500 50,800 70,800
Real Estate
38% 29% 23%
Government’s CTD HSG HPG NKG HT1

Material/
infrastructure Overweight 94,700 36,800 57,500 27,600 21,200
Construction
spending 31% 28% 17% 15% 15%
MSN MWG VNM SAB

Retail/
Demand recovery Overweight 120,000 174,000 124,100 214,000
Consumer
29% 30% 21% 15%
TNG STK
Demand recovery Textile Overweight 33,500 38,500
41% 16%
VRE VHM
Residential
Demand recovery Neutral 38,300 112,000
Real Estate
11% 10%
NT2 SJD
Defensible Utilities Neutral 25,600 19,200
14% 10%
ACB BID
Banks Neutral 40,500 52,000
17% 14%
VEA FMC
Others 53,300 39,000
16% 11%
Source: Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Note: 12-month expected upside calculated with closing price on April 5, 2021

APPENDIX 4
Analyst certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are subject to Vietnamese securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof.
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS) policy prohibits its
Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as
otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the
compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of MAS, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by
overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not
know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or MAS except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC (MAS), a broker-dealer registered in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and a member of the Vietnam Stock Exchanges. Information and opinions contained herein have been
compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and MAS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy,
completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Vietnamese language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Vietnamese language, the original
Vietnamese language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report.
The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of
this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject MAS and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof.
This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute
investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of MAS by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of
individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and
value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not
guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. MAS, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof.
MAS may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who
prepared them. MAS may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. MAS, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short
positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each
case either as principals or agents. MAS and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are
permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of MAS.
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Strategy report | April 6, 2021

VIETNAM ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKET

I. Vietnam economy review and 2021 prospects 3

2 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

3 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

4 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Total global vaccination per hundred 0.12 1.28 3.28 7.71

Total vaccination per hundred in Vietnam 0.05

Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

5 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

4.0 3.7 -10

3.0 2.7 4% -15

6 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Healthcare and social support activities

Processing and manufacturing industry

Financial , banking and insurance activities

Wholesale and retail, repair of motor vehicles

Education and training

Professional, scientific and technological activities

Information and communication

Water supply; waste management and treatment, sewage

Real estate business

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Accommodations and restaurant

Administrative and support services

Source: GSO, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

7 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Vietnam’s 2021 GDP forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth rates

8 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Monthly IIP Manufacturing IIP in March 2021

9 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(Points) PMI 3-month average

10 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

-1,000 14,000 -20

Source: GSO Source: GSO Source: GSO

11 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

Value (US$bn) % YoY growth Value (US$bn) % YoY growth

1Q21 77.3 +22.0 1Q21 75.31 +26.3

Main markets Main markets

US 21.2 +32.8 China 23.8 +47.3

China 12.5 +34.3 Korea 13 +9.9

EU 9.6 +14.2 ASEAN 9.3 +26.3

ASEAN 6.5 +3.4 Japan 5.1 +4.8

South Korea 5.0 +6.4 EU 4 +15.4

Japan 4.9 -1.5 US 4 +12.3

Main products Main products

Textiles and garments 7.2 +1.1 Fabrics 2.9 +9.2

Shoes and sandals 4.7 +13.5 Plastic 2.9 +39.3

Wood and products 3.7 +41.5 Iron, steel 2.6 +27.8

Iron, steel 1.8 +65.2 Plastic products 1.9 +15.0

Seafood 1.7 +3.3

Textile fibers 1.2 +31.0

Plastic products 1.1 +31.0

Trade balance in 1Q21: A surplus of US$2.03bn

Source: GSO, Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research compilation

12 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research

(% YoY) Plan (L) Disbursement (L)

Source: GSO Source: Ministry of Finance (Vietnam)

13 | Vietnam focus: Strategy Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) Research