Lighting, LEDs and Smart

Lighting Market Overview

Philip Smallwood
Research Director
Strategies Unlimited
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Reports from Strategies Unlimited

http://www.strategies-u.com/leds-lighting.html
PACKAGED LED, COB, CSP AND MODULES
MARKETS
Global Revenues for Packaged LEDs
2014 - 2019
$25,000

7% CAGR $21,572

$20,000

$15,565
Others
Revenues ($M)

$15,000 Lighting
Automotive
Signs
$10,000
Mobile
Display

$5,000

$0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
 Lighting Revenues
$25,000

12% CAGR $9,109

$20,000

$5,263
Others
Revenues ($M)

$15,000 Lighting
Automotive
Signs
$10,000
Mobile
Display

$5,000

$0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
 Revenues for LEDs in Lighting – by
$10,000 Application
$9,000 $9,109 Replacement Lamps
12% CAGR
$8,000 Commercial
Industrial
$7,000
$5,263 Outdoor
$6,000
Residential
$5,000
Architectural
$4,000
Consumer Portable
$3,000 Entertainment
$2,000 Off-grid
$1,000 Retail Display
$0 Safety and Security
2013 2014 Strips and Strings
2015 2016
2017
2018
2019
COB Revenue Forecast in Lighting
15% CAGR

2014
Revenue
Share
Module and Light Engine Definition
LED Module
• A number of packaged LEDs
mounted onto a printed circuit
board (PCB) that has NO driver
electronics.
• The module can have any level
of integration including optics,
thermal management, housing
enclosures, etc., as long as it
does not have the driver
electronics on board.
LED Light Engine
• An LED module with the added
driver electronics, whether on
board, integrated, or separate,
as long as it’s sold as a
complete unit.
• AC light engines will also be
included under this definition.
An AC light engine connects
directly to the AC mains while
delivering photometric and
electrical performance similar
to that of DC-driven designs.
 Total Market by Product Type
Figure 2 Total Market for LED Modules & Light Engines
By Product Type
World

$7,000

$6,000

$5,000
Revenues ($M)

$4,000
Modules
$3,000
Light Engines
$2,000

$1,000

$0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

10
Figure 5 Total Market for LED Modules & Light Engines
Total Module and LE by End Application
By Luminaire Form Factor
World
$3,000

Troffers
Revenues ($M)

Downlights Luminaires
Roadway Fixtures
Outdoor Area Lights
Other Luminaires
Figure 6 Total Market for LED Modules & Light Engines
By Lamp Form Factor
$0
World
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$1,000
Revenues ($M)

Reflectors
Lamps Tubes
Other Lamps

$0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

11
 Chip-Scale Package (CSP)
• CSP is done at the wafer level, eliminating the separate step of having
manufactured LEDs go through a packaging line (packaging can sometimes
be 60% of the total cost).
• The CSP LEDs can have the exact same footprint as the LED die, a wider
beam angle, more design flexibility, and it can be overdriven.
• However, CSP LEDs are not as efficient as high-power LEDs and low yields
result in much higher prices, currently.
• Many large LED chip and packagers are investing in this technology
including Samsung, Lumileds, LG Innotek, Seoul Semiconductor, Epistar
and Lextar

Traditional 3030 mid power package CSP LED

LAMP AND LUMINAIRE MARKETS
 LEDs in Lamps and Luminaires
Replacement Lamps Commercial & Industrial Outdoor Luminaires
Luminaires
A-Lamps Downlights Street Lights

MR-16 Troffers Tunnel Lights

Reflectors Suspended Pendants Parking Garages

T-Lamps Track Lights Parking Lots

Others High Bays Canopies

Others Wall Packs, Soffits, and

Floodlights
 Global Lamp Installed Base
50000
45000
40000
Installed Units (M)

35000
30000 LED Replacement
25000 Incandescent
20000 Halogen
15000
Fluorescent
10000
5000 CFL
0
Global Lamp Revenue by Technology
 LEDs in Lamps and Luminaires
Replacement Lamps Commercial & Industrial Outdoor Luminaires
Luminaires
A-Lamps Downlights Street Lights

MR-16 Troffers Tunnel Lights

Reflectors Suspended Pendants Parking Garages

T-Lamps Track Lights Parking Lots

Others High Bays Canopies

Others Wall Packs, Soffits, and

Floodlights
 Global Luminaire Unit Shipments
1600

1400
LED Replacement
1200
Unit Shipments (M)

LED Integrated
1000
Incandescent
800 HID

600 Halogen
Fluorescent
400
CFL
200

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
 Global LED Luminaire Revenue
Forecast
2014 LED Revenues = $19,751 M 2022 LED Revenues = $45,548 M

Street Street
Troffers Lights Lights
7% Downlights
13% Downlights 8%
17%
21%
Track Troffers
Lights 21% High Bay
6% High Bay 11%
9%

Suspended
Pendants Track
Lights Others
6% Others 29%
7% Suspended
38%
Pendants
7%
CONNECTED LIGHTING MARKET
 Connected Lighting
Connected LED Connected Outdoor Connected Indoor
Reflector & A-Lamps Luminaires Controls
Features Protocols Hardware Protocols Protocols

Basic Tunable ZigBee Programmable Power Line Power Line Bluetooth

White Scheduling/ Communication Communication
Switches
Complex Bluetooth Power Over EnOcean
Tunable White Photocells/ ZigBee
Ethernet
Photo Sensors
Simple Wi-Fi DALI Wi-Fi
Dimming Occupancy 6LoWPAN
Sensors
Color Changing 6LoWPAN ZigBee Proprietary/
Dimmers Other 802.15.4 Other
Hybrid based protocols
6LoWPAN Hybrid
Hybrid Proprietary/
Other
CONNECTED REFLECTOR AND
A-LAMPS
Global Installed Base by Lamp Shape

• Total Installed Base = 44 billion lamps

• Reflector and A-lamps comprise 55% of

this (24 billion)
 Definitions
• Simple Dimming Connected Lamp – LED lamps that are wirelessly controlled to
dim, with no control over the color temperature or CRI of the light emitted by
the lamp.

• Basic Tunable White Connected Lamp – LED lamps that are wirelessly
controlled to dim using a linear tuning mechanism. Linear tuning products
cannot track the blackbody curve (i.e., they cannot maintain a constant Duv as
CCT is adjusted).

• Complex Tunable White Connected Lamp – LED lamps that are wirelessly
controlled to dim by using a non-linear mechanism, that are effective at
following the blackbody curve. Some products can be adjusted over a range of
CCTs and can be dimmed at a constant CCT.

• Color Tunable Lamp – Wirelessly controlled LED lamps that can be adjusted to
create white or colored light.
 Lamps Features – Black Body Curve

Complex Tunable White

Basic Tunable White

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/09/f26/caliper_23_white-tunable-led-luminaires.pdf
 Connected LED A and Reflector Lamps
Installed Units Forecast
2014 Total A and Reflector 2020 Total A and Reflector
Installed Base = 23.8 Billion Units Installed Base = 25.0 Billion Units

Non- Connected Connected

Connected
Connected LED LED
LED <0.4%
LED 0.002% 0.91%
3%

Non-
Connected Other
LED 42.21%
56.88%
Other
97%
 Connected LED A and Reflector Lamp
Unit Shipments & Revenues

30

25 Basic Tunable White

Unit Shipments (M)

20 Color Changing

15 Complex Tunable
White
10 Simple Dimming

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CONNECTED OUTDOOR MARKET
 Connected Outdoor Luminaire Unit
Shipments
2014 Connected Outdoor Luminaire 2022 Connected Outdoor Luminaire
Shipments = 1.66 Million Units Shipments = 30.0 Million Units

Non-
LED
LED
27%
45%
Non-
LED
55% LED
73%
Total Connected Outdoor Luminaire
Shipments
 Connected LED Outdoor Luminaire
Unit Shipments
2014 Connected LED Outdoor Luminaire 2022 Connected LED Outdoor Luminaire
Shipments = 0.74 Million Units Shipments = 21.75 Million Units
6LoWPAN
5%
Other 802.15.4 Other 802.15.4
Zigbee based protocol 6LoWPAN based protocol
12% 1% 10% 1%

Power line
Zigbee Communication
41% 13%

Proprietary/ Power line

Other Communication
30% 52%
Proprietary/
Other
35%
CONNECTED INDOOR MARKET
 Connected Indoor Square Feet
Installations
2014 Square ft. using connected 2022 Square Ft. using connected
controls = 1,256 Million Sq. Ft. controls = 16,464 Million Sq. Ft.

Non-
Non- LED
LED 18%
44%
LED
56%
LED
82%
Overview of Connected Indoor
Lighting Market
Total Revenue Forecast

$14,000.00

$12,000.00

$10,000.00
Revenue ($M)

$8,000.00
Rest of the World
$6,000.00 Western Europe
North America
$4,000.00

$2,000.00

$-
2014 Connected Indoor Lighting
Market
 Connected LED Indoor Controls
Bluetooth
Wi-Fi 3%
5%
ZigBee
Bluetooth
6% ZigBee 9%
20% DALI
12% EnOcean
6%
Proprietary DALI
19% 39% Wi-Fi
11%
Power
over
Ethernet
Power over
4%
Ethernet
Proprietary 12% Hybrid
Power Line
4% 3% 25%
Hybrid EnOcean Power Line
18% 2% 2%
Thank You!

Philip Smallwood
Research Director
Strategies Unlimited
Philips@pennwell.com