BRAZIL

Climate change in Brazil is mainly the climate of Brazil getting hotter and drier.
The greenhouse effect of excess carbon dioxide and methane emissions makes
the Amazon rainforest hotter and drier, resulting in more wildfires in Brazil. Parts of the
rainforest risk becoming savanna.
Brazil adopted the Paris Agreement and submitted its Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in 2016 and its Updated NDC in 2020 in support of
its adaptation commitments and continued economic and social development agendas.
Through its NDC, Brazil has committed to reduce its GHG emissions by 37% below 2005
levels, by 2025. Brazil has also committed to address climate change impacts to the
country’s sectors environment, forestry, agricultural and livestock, energy, and health
sectors. Brazil submitted its Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2020.

Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions per person are higher than the global average, and
Brazil is among the countries which emit a large amount of greenhouse
gases. Greenhouse gas emissions by Brazil are almost 3% of the annual world total,
[1]
firstly due to cutting down trees in the Amazon rainforest, which emitted
more carbon dioxide in the 2010s than it absorbed,[2] and secondly from large cattle
farms, where cows belch methane. In the Paris Agreement, Brazil promised to reduce its
emissions, but the Bolsonaro government between 2019 and 2022 has been criticized
for doing too little to limit climate change or adapt to climate change.[3]

FACTORS LEADING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Cattle
In 2012, Brazil had the second largest number of cattle in the world, with 205
million head.[10] Cows are ruminants that emit greenhouse gases such
as methane and nitrous oxide.
Deforestation
Wood from illegal deforestatioPressure from international agribusiness is estimated to
have reduced deforestation for soya field
Trees are cut down to create fields for cattle and soya Deforestation peaked in 2004,
then decreased until the early 2010s. Since then, deforestation has tended to increase
through 2020
Fossil fuels
The largest single emitter in the energy sector is oil products used as fuel for transport
in Brazil, but some natural gas and coal is burnt by the electricity sector in Brazil.[14] In
2016/17, coal-fired power stations in Brazil received over 1 billion reals in subsidies. In
the Convention on Biological Diversity, Brazil committed to phasing out
environmentally harmful subsidies by 2020 but the government said in 2022 that coal
power would be subsidized until 2040.[16]

Impacts on the natural environment

The Amazon has a prominent role in regulating the climate throughout Brazil and other
regions in South America. Its forest is a major carbon sink and is essential for the
formation of the rains that irrigate much of the country. Naturally, if the forest
disappears, the rains will disappear. A vicious circle is created in which if deforestation
exceeds a certain critical level, estimated at losses of 40%, the forest will be unable to
generate enough rain to maintain itself: the less forest, the less precipitation, and the
less precipitation, the less forest. About 19% of the Amazon forest has already been lost,
[20]
and recent studies indicate that it is close to passing the critical point, beyond which
its degradation will become irreversible

IMPACTS ON PEOPLE

Agriculture
In the agricultural sector, the impacts of climate change in Brazil would be multiple and
significant.[36] About 11 million hectares of arable land could be lost by 2030 due to
warming. As global warming also produces several chemical and physical changes in the
ocean, interfering with aquatic life, problems are foreseen for national fishing, both by
reducing stocks and by geographic redistribution of economically valuable species]
A 2008 study, directly inspired by the work of the IPCC, especially in the Fourth Report,
was produced by Embrapa focusing on agribusiness and food security. Its main
conclusions are:[40]
 Global warming can jeopardize Brazilian food production, leading to losses that can
reach 7.4 billion reals in 2020 and up to 14 billion in 2070;
 Soy, whose explosive growth in the last 30 years has triggered an unprecedented
change in the country's economic structure, is likely to be the crop most affected. In
the worst-case scenario, losses could reach 40% in 2070, leading to a loss of up to
7.6 billion reals;
 Coffee is expected to lose up to 33% of the low-risk area in the main producing
states, Sã o Paulo and Minas Gerais, although it may have gains in the south of the
country;
 Corn, rice, beans, cotton and sunflower will suffer a strong reduction of low risk area
in the Northeast, with significant loss of production.
 Cassava will have a general gain in low risk area, but will likely suffer severe losses
in the Northeast;
 Sugarcane, one of the few favored crops, could double its area in the coming
decades.
In 2022, a study found that 28% of the agricultural land in Brazil is no longer
climatically optimal for agriculture due to climate change and to change in local climate
as a result of deforestation. The number will go up to 51% by 2030 and 74% by 2060 if
the change in climate will continue in the same way.

Cattle Industry
The 2012 drought in the Northeast affected more than ten million people and generated
a loss of more than R$16 billion.[44] In 2013, the phenomenon was repeated with even
greater intensity, being considered by the UN the worst of the last 50 years, leaving
1,200 municipalities in a state of emergency. In Paraíba alone, 360,000 heads of cattle
died.

Health impacts[edit]
Heat waves[edit]
A special alert was given in a 2015 report for the increased risk of extreme heat waves,
mainly affecting the elderly and the North and Northeast regions, further aggravating
 pre-existing diseases, such as respiratory problems. José Feres, from the Institute of
Applied Economic Research, said that Brazil's ageing population is particularly at risk.
The report also pointed to the tendency towards an increase in endemic infectious
diseases such as malaria, dengue and leptospirosis, the tendency towards an increase in
the problems of conservation of the road network, and showed concern about Brazil's
little preparation in the management of climatic disasters and the scarce information
available on the future impacts of rising sea levels.[49]
Floods and landslides[edit]
In the city of Sã o Paulo alone, where rain is forecast to increase, flooding causes a loss of
762 million reals per year.[50] In the floods and landslides in Rio de Janeiro in 2011, the
greatest natural tragedy ever experienced in the country, 906 people died, 400 were
reported missing, 30,000 had to leave their homes, 770 hillsides had their stability
compromised, and will need to be reconsolidated at an estimated cost of 3.3 billion
reals.[51][52] The loss for companies reached R$470 million.[53] In 2011, according to the
UN calculation, floods throughout Brazil totaled 10 billion reals in material losses and
claimed more than a thousand lives, in addition to leaving homeless crowds and
producing disorders of various orders that will take years to be balanced.[54]
A report from 2013 found that the coastal region, where the vast majority of the
country's population lives, should receive special attention, in view of a likely increase
in floods, landslides, severe weather, coastal erosion, rising sea levels and other natural
disasters caused by warming: "It is no longer possible, as a Brazilian, to accept more
disasters that kill more than a thousand Brazilians at once. Protective and preventive
measures have to be taken urgently. Extreme events are happening more often. The
population that is not prepared, will suffer from it."[9]

Government of Brazil Climate Priorities

Brazil's latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement was
approved by the Inter Ministerial Committee on Climate Change and announced at the
Climate Ambition Summit in 2023. The update resumes the country’s ambition to the
level of its first NDC from 2015: reduction of 48 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by
2025 and 53 percent by 2030. President Luiz Iná cio “Lula” da Silva took office in
January 2023 and committed to making combating climate change a priority. In his first
day in office, he signed various environmental decrees, chief among them the
reestablishment of the Amazon Fund, which raises donations for non-reimbursable
investments in efforts to prevent, monitor, and combat deforestation, as well as to
promote the preservation and sustainable use in the Brazilian Amazon.
Brazil has taken several steps to meet its commitments to the Paris Agreement:

 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): In 2023, Brazil adjusted its NDC to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by 53.1% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Brazil also
increased its 2025 reduction target from 37% to 48%.
 Climate neutrality: Brazil aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
 Renewable energy: In 2021, Brazil's primary energy consumption was 46%
renewable. Hydropower is expected to remain important, while solar and wind are
expected to grow.
 Plans for Decadal Energy Expansion (PDEs): Brazil launched PDEs when it formally
joined the Paris Agreement in 2016.
 The Kyoto Protocol is a 1997 United Nations treaty that committed industrialized
countries to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil ratified the Kyoto Protocol and
has approved projects under the CDM.

 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

Brazil participates in the CDM, which is the only Kyoto Protocol mechanism that
allows developing countries to participate voluntarily. The CDM is based on
developing projects that reduce GHG emissions.

Brazil has taken several steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate
change:

National Zero Methane Programme

In March 2022, Brazil launched this program to encourage a sustainable economy,
reduce methane emissions, and support agriculture and livestock.
Net zero emissions
Brazil has pledged to reduce its emissions by 37% by 2025 and 50% by 2030,
compared to 2005 levels. Brazil also aims to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and
eliminate illegal deforestation by 2028.
Brazilian Sustainable Sovereign Bonds
In September 2023, Brazil launched a plan to issue $2 billion in bonds to fund
sustainable projects.