Strategic Analysis of India's Critical Minerals: Resource Assessment,

Demand Projection, and Global Partnerships (2024-2044)

Group-C ( Mine Data Analytics)

IIT(ISM) Dhanbad

Course: Mine Data Analytics (MNC 306)

Instructor: Prof. Radhakanta Koner

Date: 07/04/2024

Group-C Members

1. Vivek Kumar (21JE1054)

2. Ved Kumar (21JE1049)
3. Sujan Roy-21JE0956
4. Shashwat Panigrahy - 21JE0872
5. Subhendu Dash - 21JE0949
6. Yogendra Sharma -21JE1077
7. Panjwani Manish 21JE0626
8. Rahul kumar sharma 20JE0749
9. Priyanshu Raj -21JE0713
10. Vivek Parihar-21JE1058
1. Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive analysis focusing on copper as a critical mineral in India's
strategic mineral policy. The analysis encompasses data from international and national
organizations, including reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Institute,
Ministry of Mines, and geological surveys. The report follows a structured approach, starting
with an exploration of existing reports, compilation of datasets, implementation of imputation
techniques, exploratory data analysis (EDA), and the application of machine learning (ML)
algorithms for modeling and forecasting.

1.1 India's Critical Minerals Policy

India's Critical Minerals Policy addresses the strategic importance of a specific group of
minerals for the nation's economic growth, technological advancement, and clean energy
transition. The policy recognizes the vulnerability of relying solely on imports for these critical
minerals and aims to establish a more secure and self-reliant domestic supply chain.

Key aspects of the policy include:

● Identifying a list of critical minerals essential for various sectors like clean energy, defense,
and manufacturing.
● Streamlining exploration, mining, and processing regulations for critical minerals.
● Encouraging investment in domestic exploration and processing facilities.
● Diversifying import sources and forging strategic partnerships with other countries.

Benefits of a Robust Critical Minerals Policy:

● Reduced Dependence on Imports: Lessens vulnerability to price fluctuations and supply

chain disruptions in the global market.
● Enhanced National Security: Ensures access to critical minerals for strategic applications
like defense technologies.
● Green Growth: Supports the development and deployment of clean energy technologies like
solar panels and wind turbines, which rely heavily on critical minerals.
● Job Creation: Boosts the domestic mining and processing industries, creating new
employment opportunities.

Current Status (as of April 8, 2024):

● The Ministry of Mines has identified a list of critical minerals, with some being auctioned for
exploration in the first tranche in November 2023.
●

What are Critical Minerals?

Critical minerals are those minerals that are essential for economic development and
national security. The lack of availability of these minerals or concentration of extraction
or processing in a few geographical locations may lead to supply chain vulnerabilities
and even disruption of supplies. The future global economy will be underpinned by
technologies that depend on minerals such as lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium, and
rare earth elements. These are essential for advancing many sectors, including
high-tech electronics, telecommunications, transport, and defense. They are also vital to
power the global transition to a low carbon emissions economy and the renewable
energy technologies required to meet the ‘Net Zero’ commitments of an increasing
number of countries worldwide. Hence, it has become imperative to identify and develop
value chains for the minerals that are critical to our country.

Expert Committee under the Ministry of Mines has identified a set of 30 critical minerals
for
India.
What is the Significance of Critical Minerals for India?

Economic Development: Industries such as high-tech electronics,

telecommunications, transport, and defense heavily rely on these minerals. Additionally,
critical minerals are essential for green technologies like solar panels, wind turbines,
batteries, and electric vehicles. Given India's significant domestic demand and potential
in these sectors, their growth can lead to job creation, income generation, and
innovation.
National Security: These minerals are vital for defense, aerospace, nuclear, and space
applications, necessitating the use of high-quality and reliable materials capable of
withstanding extreme conditions and performing complex functions. To ensure defense
preparedness and self-reliance, India must secure a steady supply of critical minerals.
Environmental Sustainability: They are integral to the transition toward clean energy
and a low-carbon economy, enabling the reduction of India's reliance on fossil fuels and
greenhouse gas emissions. With a commitment to attaining 450 GW of renewable
energy capacity by 2030, these minerals are essential for achieving India's green
objectives.
International Cooperation: These collaborations enable India to diversify its import
sources,
reduce dependency on China, and enhance mineral security and resilience.

Appendix 1: List of 30 Critical Minerals of study (in alphabetical order)

The mineral marked with ‘(x)’ is not being mined in India yet.

1. Antimony (x)
2. Beryllium (x)
3. Bismuth (x)
4. Cadmium
5. Cobalt (x)
6. Copper
7. Gallium
8. Germanium (x)
9. Graphite
10. Hafnium
11. Indium (x)
12. Lithium (x)
13. Molybdenum
14. Niobium (x)
15. Nickel
16. PGE (Platinum Group of Elements):
i. Platinum,
ii. Palladium,
iii. Rhodium,
iv. Ruthenium,
v. Iridium,
vi. Osmium
17. Phosphorous
18. Potash
19. REE (Rare Earth Elements):
i. Lanthanum,
ii. Cerium,
iii. Praseodymium,
iv. Neodymium,
v. Promethium,
vi. Samarium,
vii. Europium,
viii. Gadolinium,
ix. Terbium,
x. Dysprosium,
xi. Holmium,
xii. Erbium,
xiii. Thulium,
xiv. Ytterbium,
xv. Lutetium,
xvi. Scandium,
xvii. Yttrium
20. Rhenium (x)
21. Selenium (x)
22. Silicon
23. Strontium (x)
24. Tantalum (x)
25. Tellurium (x)
26. Tin
27. Titanium
28. Tungsten (x)
29. Vanadium
30. Zirconium
1.2 Importance of Copper in Green Economy and Sustainable
Development
Copper plays a vital role in enabling the green economy and achieving sustainable development
goals. Here's why:

● High Electrical Conductivity: Copper efficiently transmits electricity, making it essential for
renewable energy generation (wind turbines, solar panels) and power transmission
infrastructure.
● Durability and Recyclability: Copper has a long lifespan and can be recycled efficiently,
minimizing environmental impact and resource depletion.
● Energy Efficiency: Copper components in electric motors and transformers contribute to
significant energy savings compared to traditional alternatives.
● Electric Vehicle Infrastructure: Copper is a key material for charging stations, electric
vehicle motors, and wiring, crucial for the transition to electric mobility.

By fostering a secure domestic supply of copper and promoting its efficient use, India can
significantly contribute to building a sustainable future.

2.1 Literature Review: International and National Reports on Critical

Minerals
A comprehensive review of international and national reports on critical minerals will provide
insights into the global landscape and inform India's policy direction. Here are some potential
sources:

● International Reports:
○ Reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on critical minerals for clean energy
technologies.
○ Publications by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) on mineral deposit
information and exploration strategies.
○ Research from the European Commission on critical raw materials for the EU economy.
● National Reports:
○ Reports by the Geological Survey of India (GSI) on the country's mineral resources and
potential for critical minerals.
○ Publications by the Ministry of Mines, India on the Critical Minerals Policy framework and
its implementation.
○ Research by Indian academic institutions and industry bodies on critical minerals and their
implications for India.

Search Strategies:
● Utilize online databases like ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and ResearchGate with
keywords like "critical minerals," "critical mineral policy," "copper," "India," "clean energy."
● Explore the websites of the aforementioned organizations for relevant reports and
publications.

2.2 Collection and Cleaning of Copper Datasets from Sources like

BGS.ac.uk
Data on copper resources will be crucial for analyzing India's copper potential and supply chain
vulnerabilities. Here's how we can proceed:

● Data Source: The British Geological Survey (BGS) website (bgs.ac.uk) offers a valuable
repository of geological data, including mineral occurrences.
● Data Collection:
○ Navigate to the BGS website and explore their data resources on mineral deposits.
○ Search for datasets specifically related to copper occurrences, focusing on geographic
regions relevant to India.
○ Download the data in a suitable format, such as CSV or Excel.
● Data Cleaning and Processing:
○ Once downloaded, the copper data might need cleaning to ensure accuracy and
consistency. This may involve:
■ Checking for missing values and potential inconsistencies.
■ Standardizing units of measurement (e.g., tonnes to kilograms).
■ Formatting geographical coordinates for compatibility with mapping software.

Additional Data Sources:

● The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries provide data on global copper production,
reserves, and exploration activity.
● Indian government agencies like the GSI might offer datasets on domestic copper resources.

By collecting and analyzing data from these sources, you can build a robust understanding of
India's copper resources and their significance in the context of the Critical Minerals Policy.

Remember:

● While BGS is a good starting point, explore other reputable sources to obtain a
comprehensive picture of copper resources.
● Pay close attention to data licensing terms when downloading datasets.

This section provides a roadmap for gathering the necessary information to support your report
on India's critical minerals and the role of copper.

3. Methodology
To analyze India's copper situation and inform policy decisions, we employed a
multi-pronged approach.

3.1 Data Acquisition and Cleaning

The foundation of this study involved compiling a comprehensive dataset on copper

resources. We primarily utilized the British Geological Survey (BGS) website, a valuable
repository of global mineral data. After identifying relevant datasets for copper
occurrences in regions of interest to India, we meticulously downloaded the data in a
compatible format.

However, raw data often requires cleaning to ensure its accuracy and usefulness. We
undertook a thorough process to address missing values, standardize units of
measurement, and format geographical coordinates for seamless integration with
mapping software. This meticulous data cleaning ensured the integrity of our
subsequent analysis

.
In addition to BGS data, we explored other reputable sources such as the USGS
Mineral Commodity Summaries and Indian government agencies like the Geological
Survey of India (GSI) to obtain a well-rounded picture of global and domestic copper
resources.

3.2 Production Forecasting with Linear Regression

To gain insights into future copper production trends, we employed linear regression.
This statistical technique allowed us to identify correlations between historical
production data and relevant factors that might influence future production levels. By
analyzing these relationships, we were able to develop a preliminary forecast for India's
copper production potential.
It is important to acknowledge that linear regression models have limitations, particularly
when dealing with complex systems like resource extraction. Future considerations
may involve exploring more sophisticated forecasting techniques to refine our
understanding.

3.3 Demand Analysis: India and the Global Landscape

Understanding copper demand is crucial for assessing potential supply-demand

imbalances. We investigated data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on global
copper demand trends. By correlating this data with India's specific copper demand, we
aimed to identify potential gaps and opportunities for India's role in the global copper
market. This analysis will provide valuable insights for policymakers as they navigate
the critical minerals landscape.

The following sections will delve deeper into the findings from these methodologies and
explore their implications for India's Critical Minerals Policy and its copper strategy.

4. Current Scenario: India's Copper Landscape

4.1 Production, Consumption, and Capacity: A Balancing Act

India currently faces a gap between its copper production and consumption. While the
nation's refined copper production capacity sits around 5.55 lakh tonnes (as of FY
2022-23), consumption is significantly higher, estimated to be around 6.6 lakh tonnes in
2020-21 [1, 2]. This deficit necessitates substantial copper imports to meet domestic
demand.

The recent surge in copper consumption, projected to grow at 11% in FY 2024 due to
government infrastructure initiatives and the renewable energy push, further highlights
this gap [3].

4.2 GSI: Unlocking India's Copper Potential

The Geological Survey of India (GSI) plays a pivotal role in exploring and identifying
potential copper resources within the country. Their surveys and exploration projects
offer valuable insights into India's copper potential.

Here's how GSI contributes:

● Resource Mapping: GSI's geological surveys map potential copper deposits

 across the country, aiding in targeted exploration efforts.
● Exploration Activities: GSI itself undertakes exploration projects, uncovering
new copper prospects and providing valuable data for further development.
● Data Sharing: GSI findings are disseminated, attracting private investment in
copper exploration and potentially leading to increased domestic production.

Challenges and Opportunities:

While GSI's work is crucial, challenges persist. Limited exploration budgets and a
complex permitting process can hinder the pace of discovery. However, recent policy
initiatives aimed at streamlining regulations and attracting investment offer promising
avenues for boosting domestic copper production.

The next section will explore the impact of this supply-demand imbalance and
delve into potential solutions and future strategies.

Sources:

● [1] "[India's copper imports up 30 per cent in

FY23]"(https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/achieving-self-sufficiency-i
n-copper/article66255911.ece)
● [2] "[There are two methods of mining copper minerals open pit and
underground. Open- pit mining accounts for 80% of all copper mining operations
in the world. - The Mined copper ore is initially crushed, milled and concentrated
by ore beneficiation process into a fine, gray powder called copper concentrate. If
the nature of ore is sulphide, froth floatation process is adopted to do the
beneficiation wherein the 1 % copper containing ore is - Ministry of
Mines]"(https://mines.gov.in/webportal/copper)
● [3] "[India's refined copper consumption to grow by 11% in FY2024, despite
global headwinds:
ICRA]"(https://www.icra.in/Rating/DownloadResearchSummaryReport?id=5410)

5. Future Outlook: Copper in India (2024-2044)

This section explores the projected copper demand and production trends in India for
the next two decades (2024-2044), along with policy implications and recommendations
for sustainable copper mining and supply chain management.

5.1 Copper Demand Projections: A Growing Appetite

India's copper demand is anticipated to rise steadily over the next two decades, driven
by several factors:

● Infrastructure Development: Continued government investment in

infrastructure projects like power grids and transportation networks will
 necessitate significant copper use.
● Urbanization: The rapid pace of urbanization will fuel demand for copper in
construction and electrical wiring.
● Renewable Energy Boom: The expansion of solar, wind, and other renewable
energy sources will require substantial copper for electrical generation and
transmission infrastructure.
● Electric Vehicle Transition: The shift towards electric vehicles will significantly
increase copper demand for motors, batteries, and charging infrastructure.

Quantitative Projections:

● Industry reports suggest a potential growth rate of 5-7% per annum for copper
demand in India over the next decade [1].
● Extending this projection to 2044 suggests a potential doubling or even tripling of
copper demand by 2044 compared to 2024 levels.

Addressing the Gap:

Meeting this burgeoning demand will necessitate a multi-pronged approach:

● Boosting Domestic Production: The Critical Minerals Policy and initiatives to

expedite exploration and attract investment are crucial for ramping up domestic
copper production.
● Recycling and Resource Efficiency: Promoting copper recycling and
implementing strategies to minimize copper wastage throughout the life cycle will
be critical for long-term sustainability.
● Strategic Partnerships: Collaboration with copper-rich countries can ensure
stable supply sources and potentially lead to knowledge exchange in sustainable
mining practices.

5.2 Policy Implications and Recommendations for Sustainable Copper

Mining

Sustainable copper mining practices are essential for safeguarding the environment and
ensuring long-term resource availability. Here are some key policy recommendations:

● Environmental Regulations: Implementing and enforcing stricter environmental

regulations for copper mining operations will minimize environmental damage
and promote responsible mining practices.
● Community Engagement: Proactive engagement with local communities
impacted by mining projects is crucial for addressing concerns and ensuring
equitable distribution of benefits.
● Land Reclamation and Rehabilitation: Mandating land reclamation and
rehabilitation plans for post-mining activities will ensure the restoration of
ecological balance in mined areas.
● Technological Advancements: Investing in research and development of
 cleaner and more efficient copper extraction and processing technologies will
significantly reduce the environmental footprint of mining.

5.3 Recommendations for Sustainable Supply Chain Management

A sustainable copper supply chain requires a holistic approach that considers

environmental, social, and economic aspects. Here are some policy recommendations:

● Traceability and Transparency: Establishing robust traceability mechanisms

throughout the copper supply chain will help identify and eliminate unethical
practices like child labor or environmental degradation.
● Sustainable Procurement Practices: Encouraging government agencies and
private companies to adopt sustainable procurement policies that prioritize
copper sourced from responsible mining operations.
● Collaboration and Knowledge Sharing: Fostering collaboration between
governments, industry players, and civil society organizations can facilitate
knowledge sharing and the development of best practices for sustainable copper
supply chain management.

By implementing these recommendations alongside a well-defined Critical Minerals

Policy, India can navigate the future copper landscape effectively. This will ensure a
secure and sustainable supply of copper to fuel the nation's clean energy ambitions and
economic growth while minimizing environmental and social impacts.

6. Conclusion: Securing Copper for a Sustainable Future

This report has explored the critical role of copper in India's clean energy ambitions and
the challenges posed by the current supply-demand gap.

6.1 Summary of Findings and Insights

● Supply-Demand Imbalance: India faces a significant deficit between domestic
copper production and consumption, relying heavily on imports.
● Growing Demand: The surge in copper demand, fueled by infrastructure
development and the green energy transition, further exacerbates the gap.
● Geological Potential: Exploration efforts by the Geological Survey of India (GSI)
reveal promising copper prospects within the country.
● Critical Mineral Policy: A robust Critical Minerals Policy is essential for
streamlining exploration, attracting investment, and fostering domestic copper
production.

6.2 Critical Mineral Policy: A Cornerstone for Clean Energy

India's Critical Minerals Policy holds immense significance for achieving its clean energy
goals. Here's how:

● Reduced Dependence on Imports: A secure domestic copper supply chain

minimizes vulnerability to price fluctuations and supply disruptions in the global
market.
● Enhanced National Security: Access to critical minerals like copper is vital for
clean energy technologies and ensures a stable foundation for sustainable
development.
● Green Growth: Domestic copper production supports the deployment of clean
energy infrastructure like solar panels and wind turbines, crucial for
decarbonization.
● Economic Growth and Job Creation: The development of a domestic copper
industry fosters economic growth and creates new employment opportunities.

By effectively implementing the Critical Minerals Policy, India can position itself as a
leader in the green energy transition while ensuring its resource security and economic
prosperity.

6.3 Recommendations for Enhancing Resource Security and Sustainable

Development

To bridge the copper gap and achieve sustainable development, the following
recommendations are proposed:

● Streamlining Exploration and Permitting: Expediting exploration processes

and simplifying permitting procedures will attract private investment and
accelerate copper discovery.
● Promoting Technological Innovation: Investing in research and development
of efficient extraction and processing technologies can maximize resource
utilization and minimize environmental impact.
● Circular Economy Strategies: Encouraging copper recycling and promoting
closed-loop systems will reduce reliance on virgin resources and contribute to a
more sustainable copper lifecycle.
● Strategic Partnerships: Forging partnerships with copper-producing countries
can secure reliable long-term supply sources and facilitate knowledge transfer.

By implementing these recommendations alongside a well-defined Critical Minerals

Policy, India can harness its copper potential, ensure a secure supply chain for its clean
energy goals, and pave the way for a more sustainable future.

7. References: Cited Reports, Studies, and Data Sources

International Reports:

● International Energy Agency (IEA). Reports on critical minerals for clean energy
technologies (specific report titles needed based on information used).
 ● United States Geological Survey (USGS). Mineral Commodity Summaries
(specific year edition).
● European Commission. Research on critical raw materials for the EU economy
(specific report titles needed).

National Reports:

● Geological Survey of India (GSI). Reports on India's mineral resources and

potential for critical minerals (specific report titles needed).
● Ministry of Mines, India. Publications on the Critical Minerals Policy framework
and its implementation (specific report titles or website link needed).
● Research by Indian academic institutions and industry bodies on critical minerals
and their implications for India (specific reports or sources needed).

Data Sources:

● British Geological Survey (BGS) website (bgs.ac.uk): Datasets on mineral

occurrences, specifically for copper relevant to India (link or specific dataset
name).
● USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries: Data on global copper production,
reserves, and exploration activity.