Acosta, Dzun Warren A.

BSABE 3-1

Perform a rainfall frequency analysis on the rainfall data given to you. Assess its best fit probability distribution
(Normal, Log-Normal, Log-Pearson Type III and Gumbel distribution). Use your assigned annual rainfall data.

Republic of the Philippines

Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
CLIMATE AND AGROMET DATA SECTION
PAGASA Science Garden Complex, Agham Road, Diliman Quezon City, Philippines
Telefax: (632)-434-2698

MONTHLY TOTAL AND ANNUAL CLIMATIC DATA

RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)

o
STATION : ALABAT, QUEZON LATITUDE : 14 06'20.50"N
o
PERIOD : 1994 - 2017 LONGITUDE : 122 01'03.32"E
ELEVATION : 5m

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL
1994 285.9 79.7 195.4 185.1 162.4 373.9 81.3 69.7 282.7 280.1 291.4 530.9 2818.5
1995 181.3 227.2 8.2 19.6 170.5 229.4 331.4 317.9 450.4 544.8 881.7 1424.7 4787.1
1996 233.2 119.3 176.5 353.0 65.3 233.3 184.1 114.7 212.9 347.8 695.2 415.4 3150.7
1997 91.3 137.9 74.4 45.5 157.5 67.3 249.7 58.9 392.9 181.0 427.2 351.0 2234.6
1998 74.8 40.7 18.2 3.1 85.3 117.3 183.3 74.5 258.5 905.6 317.6 1334.6 3413.5
1999 535.7 174.9 387.2 216.6 96.4 143.2 84.0 282.8 174.4 676.8 684.5 947.0 4403.5
2000 217.0 423.6 296.5 48.0 198.3 127.3 286.1 56.6 298.9 652.0 680.6 746.2 4031.1
2001 143.8 441.3 269.2 78.2 78.5 340.9 162.0 191.8 70.1 548.0 576.7 955.1 3855.6
2002 105.2 112.0 86.8 34.1 93.8 170.3 226.7 437.3 206.4 374.6 792.9 428.4 3068.5
2003 83.8 44.8 69.8 33.3 231.3 196.2 292.9 146.3 281.6 296.2 368.3 406.3 2450.8
2004 188.2 142.8 140.6 109.0 144.2 159.3 301.8 115.0 125.6 593.2 785.7 307.9 3113.3
2005 277.6 74.0 174.3 33.2 6.6 109.0 304.0 149.5 411.7 488.8 336.9 1420.8 3786.4
2006 280.3 302.8 111.4 1.8 120.9 211.5 290.0 143.3 378.1 441.1 262.6 663.1 3206.9
2007 233.5 88.4 169.0 28.4 244.9 199.3 235.9 98.5 264.0 410.8 763.8 -2.0 2736.5**
2008 602.8 680.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 236.9 374.0 -2.0 -2.0 1893.7**
2009 423.4 209.6 200.6 536.5 302.2 -2.0 186.4 32.0 -2.0 -2.0 489.8 -2.0 2380.5**
2010 243.0 2.8 99.7 35.0 23.2 87.2 -2.0 283.0 265.6 368.6 636.3 564.1 2608.5**
2011 195.7 401.1 326.0 19.9 251.2 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0
2012 322.9 375.4 399.7 16.5 266.4 46.1 597.7 75.8 200.1 302.2 177.4 370.3 3150.5
2013 181.1 216 69.8 4.4 73.5 280.4 384.3 181 213.3 379.1 749.5 450.1 3182.5
2014 120.4 94.2 123.1 25.8 50.8 95.3 297.7 166.3 437.4 439.7 686.9 889.6 3427.2
2015 238.8 147.5 81.4 63.9 29.0 143.2 90.3 159.0 245.9 261.5 383.1 539.0 2382.6
2016 236.4 335.6 365.8 19.2 54.7 176.0 104.2 30.7 215.8 448.5 698.0 854.7 3539.6
2017 390.8 166.0 89.4 215.3 125.3 219.2 253.5 112.0 913.3 597.8 667.2 175.3 3925.1

NOTE : -2.0 means no data

T means trace
** means annual values with missing months

Prepared by: PAGASA/CAD/CDS

Using Normal Distribution

YEAR ANNUAL rank p=m/n+1 magnitudeprobabilityprecipitation

of occurrence
1995 4787.1 1 0.041667 m+s 0.159 3919.117
1999 4403.5 2 0.083333 m 0.5 3197.704
2000 4031.1 3 0.125 m-s 0.841 2476.291
2017 3925.1 4 0.166667
2001 3855.6 5 0.208333 mean 3197.704
2005 3786.4 6 0.25 standard dev
721.4131
2016 3539.6 7 0.291667
2014 3427.2 8 0.333333
1998 3413.5 9 0.375
2006 3206.9 10 0.416667
2013 3182.5 11 0.458333
1996 3150.7 12 0.5
2012 3150.5 13 0.541667
2004 3113.3 14 0.583333
2002 3068.5 15 0.625
1994 2818.5 16 0.666667
2007 2736.5 17 0.708333
2010 2608.5 18 0.75
2003 2450.8 19 0.791667
2015 2382.6 20 0.833333
2009 2380.5 21 0.875
1997 2234.6 22 0.916667
2008 1893.7 23 0.958333
Using Log Normal Distribution

YEAR ANNUAL rank p=m/n+1 log x magnitudeprobabilitylog

of occurrence
x antilog
1995 4787.1 1 0.041667 3.680072 m+s 0.159 3.593855 3925.136
1999 4403.5 2 0.083333 3.643798 m 0.5 3.494065 3119.354
2000 4031.1 3 0.125 3.605424 m-s 0.841 3.394275 2478.989
2017 3925.1 4 0.166667 3.593851
2001 3855.6 5 0.208333 3.586092 mean 3.494065
2005 3786.4 6 0.25 3.578226 standard dev0.09979
2016 3539.6 7 0.291667 3.548954
2014 3427.2 8 0.333333 3.534939
1998 3413.5 9 0.375 3.5332
2006 3206.9 10 0.416667 3.506085
2013 3182.5 11 0.458333 3.502768
1996 3150.7 12 0.5 3.498407
2012 3150.5 13 0.541667 3.498379
2004 3113.3 14 0.583333 3.493221
2002 3068.5 15 0.625 3.486926
1994 2818.5 16 0.666667 3.450018
2007 2736.5 17 0.708333 3.437195
2010 2608.5 18 0.75 3.416391
2003 2450.8 19 0.791667 3.389308
2015 2382.6 20 0.833333 3.377051
2009 2380.5 21 0.875 3.376668
1997 2234.6 22 0.916667 3.3492
2008 1893.7 23 0.958333 3.277311
Using Log Pearson Type III

YEAR ANNUAL rank p=m/n+1 log x magnitudeprobabilitylog

of occurrence
x antilog
1995 4787.1 1 0.041667 3.680072 m+s 0.159 3.593855 3925.136
1999 4403.5 2 0.083333 3.643798 m 0.5 3.494065 3119.354
2000 4031.1 3 0.125 3.605424 m-s 0.841 3.394275 2478.989
2017 3925.1 4 0.166667 3.593851
2001 3855.6 5 0.208333 3.586092 mean 3.494065
2005 3786.4 6 0.25 3.578226 standard dev0.09979
2016 3539.6 7 0.291667 3.548954 Skewness -0.22508
2014 3427.2 8 0.333333 3.534939
1998 3413.5 9 0.375 3.5332 P K Logx M+ksAntilog
2006 3206.9 10 0.416667 3.506085 0.99 -2.472 3.247384 1767.598
2013 3182.5 11 0.458333 3.502768 0.5 0.033 3.497358 3143.096
1996 3150.7 12 0.5 3.498407 0.2 0.85 3.578886 3792.156
2012 3150.5 13 0.541667 3.498379 0.1 1.258 3.619601 4164.861
2004 3113.3 14 0.583333 3.493221 0.04 1.68 3.661712 4588.936
2002 3068.5 15 0.625 3.486926 0.02 1.945 3.688156 4877.04
1994 2818.5 16 0.666667 3.450018 0.01 2.178 3.711407 5145.261
2007 2736.5 17 0.708333 3.437195 0.005 2.388 3.732363 5399.622
2010 2608.5 18 0.75 3.416391
2003 2450.8 19 0.791667 3.389308
2015 2382.6 20 0.833333 3.377051
2009 2380.5 21 0.875 3.376668
1997 2234.6 22 0.916667 3.3492
2008 1893.7 23 0.958333 3.277311
Using Gumbel Distribution

YEAR ANNUAL rank p=m/n+1 log x b p(g) chi square magnitudeprobability of occurrence
1995 4787.1 1 0.041667 3.680072 3.402809 0.033 m+s 0.159
1999 4403.5 2 0.083333 3.643798 2.720836 0.064 m 0.5
2000 4031.1 3 0.125 3.605424 2.058775 0.119 m-s 0.841
2017 3925.1 4 0.166667 3.593851 1.870325 0.143
2001 3855.6 5 0.208333 3.586092 1.746767 0.159
2005 3786.4 6 0.25 3.578226 1.623741 0.179 mean 3197.704
2016 3539.6 7 0.291667 3.548954 1.184975 0.263 standard dev
721.4131
2014 3427.2 8 0.333333 3.534939 0.985148 0.312
1998 3413.5 9 0.375 3.5332 0.960791 0.317
2006 3206.9 10 0.416667 3.506085 0.593493 0.425
2013 3182.5 11 0.458333 3.502768 0.550114 0.438
1996 3150.7 12 0.5 3.498407 0.49358 0.457
2012 3150.5 13 0.541667 3.498379 0.493224 0.457
2004 3113.3 14 0.583333 3.493221 0.427089 0.479
2002 3068.5 15 0.625 3.486926 0.347443 0.507
1994 2818.5 16 0.666667 3.450018 -0.09701 0.668
2007 2736.5 17 0.708333 3.437195 -0.24279 0.72
2010 2608.5 18 0.75 3.416391 -0.47036 0.798
2003 2450.8 19 0.791667 3.389308 -0.75072 0.879
2015 2382.6 20 0.833333 3.377051 -0.87197 0.908
2009 2380.5 21 0.875 3.376668 -0.8757 0.91
1997 2234.6 22 0.916667 3.3492 -1.13508 0.955
2008 1893.7 23 0.958333 3.277311 -1.74114 0.99
Comparing the graphs of these 4 distribution methods

Normal Distribution
6000
Precipitation, mm

5000
4000
3000
2000 Data
1000 Normal Distribution
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probability of Exceedence

Log Normal Distribution

6000
Precipitation, mm

5000
4000
3000
Data
2000
1000 Log Normal
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probability of Exceedence

Log Pearson Type III

6000
5000
4000
3000 Data

2000 Log Pearson Type III

1000
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Gumbel Distribution
6000
Precipitation, mm

5000
4000
3000
Data
2000
1000 Gumbel Distribution
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probability of Exceedence
These graph reveals that Normal and Log-Normal Distributions come the closest to fitting the data, whereas
Gumbel and Log-Pearson Distributions do not. The center of the probability distribution is closer to the data in
the case of the log-normal distribution than it is in the case of the normal distribution at both ends of the linear
lines in both the normal and log-normal probability distributions. The Log-Normal Probability Distribution will
therefore provide the greatest fit among these four probability distributions.