Chapter 2 2

Probability theory

2.1 Questions
1. For each one of the statements below say whether the statement is true or false,
explaining your answer. Throughout this question A and B are events such that
0 < P (A) < 1 and 0 < P (B) < 1.
(a) If A and B are independent, then P (A) + P (B) > P (A ∪ B).
(b) If P (A | B) = P (A | B c ) then A and B are independent.
(c) If A and B are disjoint events, then Ac and B c are disjoint.

2. Suppose that 10 people are seated in a random manner in a row of 10 lecture

theatre seats. What is the probability that two particular people, A and B, will be
seated next to each other?

3. A person tried by a three-judge panel is declared guilty if at least two judges cast
votes of guilty (i.e. a majority verdict). Suppose that when the defendant is in fact
guilty, each judge will independently vote guilty with probability 0.9, whereas when
the defendant is not guilty (i.e. innocent), this probability drops to 0.25. Suppose
70% of defendants are guilty.
(a) Compute the probability that judge 1 votes guilty.
(b) Given that both judge 1 and judge 2 vote not guilty, compute the probability
that judge 3 votes guilty.