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EGA Indonesia Economic Outlook - January 2023
EGA Indonesia Economic Outlook - January 2023
EGA Indonesia Economic Outlook - January 2023
Economic Outlook
2023
Menara Sentraya, 21st floor, Jl. Iskandarsyah Raya No. 1A, Kebayoran Baru, Jakarta, 12160 Indonesia
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Edelman Global Advisory - Indonesia Economic Outlook 2023
Executive Summary
The year 2022 was not easy for Indonesia. There were nearly 2.5 million cases of COVID-19 last year,
which brought the total number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia to 6.72 million through 2022. Last
year, Indonesia also experienced a livestock foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. In addition, the
war in Ukraine has impacted Indonesia’s consumers, affecting the distribution of wheat – as Ukraine
is one of the world’s primary producers – and the price of cooking oil in Indonesia.
In 2022, the Indonesian government focused more on investment and import substitution to accelerate
national economic recovery. The groundwork for the commodity balancing initiative was laid by
issuing Presidential Regulation 32/2022 to simplify trade licenses and give policymakers more
centralized data to determine trade policies. This was followed by several policies to tighten trade
while widening investment in mining products and natural commodities, as well as efforts to advance
energy efficiency and transition through policies on electric vehicle conversion, as well as expanding
financial inclusion.
The year also saw Indonesian efforts to influence the international stage. Indonesian President Joko
Widodo and five other global leaders were named members of the Champion Group of the Global
Crisis Response Group (GCRG). Indonesia also completed its G20 Presidency in 2022. Indonesia
received several investment commitments and grants in 2020 that have been attributed to the
completion of G20 leadership. Indonesia also sealed a USD 20 billion deal for energy transition
through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) led by developed countries in the International
Partners Group (IPG). Those funds will be used to support the clean energy transition by reducing
emissions in the electricity sector and developing renewable energy.
Following the success of Indonesia's 2022 G20 Presidency and its active participation in the Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping, Indonesia's 2023 Chairmanship of the Association of
Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) is seen by many as another testament to Indonesia's independent
and active foreign policy. Indonesia's ASEAN Chairmanship will likely implement the same approach
regarding unresolved challenges such as the Myanmar post-coup violence and South China Sea
disputes.
These accomplishments in 2022 are key milestones leading to the Indonesia Vision 2045. In trade,
the government is actively promoting domestic products to accelerate national economic recovery as
the nation enters the post-pandemic era. Entering 2023, the current electoral race could impact
Indonesian economic and political priorities. There is a tendency for the government and legislators
to embrace a more inward-looking economic policy leading up to the 2024 election.
Edelman Global Advisory (EGA) Indonesia Economic Outlook provides an overview and analysis of
critical sectors in Indonesia during 2022 and examines significant policy and trends to watch in 2023.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................ii
Table of Contents .........................................................................................................................................iii
1 Indonesia Economic Snapshot 2022................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Tightening Trade, Widening Investment ................................................................................. 1
1.1.1 Indonesia's export and import policies dynamic ...................................................... 1
1.1.2 Indonesia's electric vehicles conversion movement ................................................ 2
1.1.3 Financial inclusion ......................................................................................................... 4
1.2 Influencing Global Governance ................................................................................................ 5
1.2.1 President Joko Widodo becomes a member of the UN Champions Group ......... 5
1.2.2 G20 Indonesian and economic agreements. ............................................................ 6
1.2.3 JETP deal and its risks. ................................................................................................ 9
1.2.4 Indonesia-EU Nickel dispute...................................................................................... 11
1.2.5 European Union bans imports of goods linked to deforestation and its
impact on Indonesia.................................................................................................... 12
1.3 Notable Events ......................................................................................................................... 13
1.3.1 Post-pandemic and Indonesia’s health industry ..................................................... 13
1.3.2 Growing unemployment numbers in Indonesia ...................................................... 14
1.3.3 Russia-Ukraine War and its impact on Indonesia’s food and energy crisis ........ 15
1.3.4 Green Transition Scheme under APEC ................................................................... 15
2 What to Expect in 2023 ..................................................................................................................... 17
2.1 Revision of Nusantara Capital Law as Indonesia's 2023 National Priority Legislation ... 17
2.2 Private Sector to Scrutinize Discussions on the Implementation of Financial Sector
Development and Strengthening Law................................................................................... 18
2.3 Potential 2023 Landscape Imposed by the 2024 Election Year........................................ 18
2.4 Key Commodity Trade in 2023: Pathway Towards Industrialization and Protecting the
Domestic Interest ..................................................................................................................... 19
2.4.1 Nickel ............................................................................................................................ 19
2.4.2 Bauxite .......................................................................................................................... 19
2.4.3 Palm oil ......................................................................................................................... 20
2.5 Indonesia’s ASEAN Chairmanship 2023 .............................................................................. 20
2.6 Indonesia, ASEAN, and its Indo-Pacific Relations ............................................................... 21
3 Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 22
About EGA .................................................................................................................................................. 27
Glossary....................................................................................................................................................... 28
The commodity balance is to provide data on the type, quantity, and quality of goods
and the time goods are available for supply or needed by demand. It is the main
reference in determining export or import quotas. If there is a domestic commodity
deficit, the government can impose an export ban on that good or open imports. The
government can also increase exports.
Currently, under the Minister of Trade Regulation 40/2022, Indonesia bans the export
and import of several commodities, namely:
Export Ban Import Ban
• Forestry sector (Rattan, Wood, Hoop • Certain types of sugar
wood, and other wood commodities) • Certain types of rice
• The agricultural sector (Natural • Ozon depleting substances (Halogenated
rubbers in the form other than derivatives of hydrocarbons, Mixtures
Smoked Sheet and TSNR, Porang containing halogenated derivatives of
Plants and its parts) methane, ethane, or propane)
• Mining sector • Used bags, sacks, and clothes
• Cultural heritage goods • Goods with refrigerated-based system which
• Metal waste and scraps use CFC and HCFC-22
• Certain types of drugs and food ingredients
• Registered toxic and hazardous waste and
non-hazardous waste
• Finished forms of hand tools
• Medical devices containing mercury
• Nickel
Indonesia is home to 22% of the world's nickel reserves. The government’s ban on
nickel ore exports since 2020 has caused major shifts in the supply chains of strategic
products such as electric vehicles and rocket engines.
Indonesia's 2020 decision to halt the export of nickel ore is a continuation of its
industrial policy to produce downstream materials and products in the nickel and
electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain. However, the quality of Indonesia's nickel
reserves will require a multiyear process of technological upgrades to achieve this
objective.
• Bauxite
On December 21, 2022, President Joko Widodo announced that Indonesia would
impose a bauxite export ban starting from June 2023 to shore up the domestic
processing of mineral resources. Moreover, exports of bleached bauxite will also be
banned.
• Palm oil
The Indonesian government seeks to increase crude palm oil (CPO) export volume
through policies laying out a range of incentives and regulatory actions. Three export
regulations recently implemented include Minister of Finance Regulation 154/2022
(export levy exemption until the end of the year), Ministry of Trade Regulation
46/2022 (the CPO Reference Price mechanism) and Minister of Finance 123/2022
(the CPO export duty threshold). Through these actions, it is trying to boost CPO
exports while maintaining stable state revenues from export duties.
Palm oil businesses and oil palm farmers generally support the CPO export levy
waiver, yet they are still concerned about the state of the industry. Meanwhile,
smallholder associations are concerned by the volatility and differences in the selling
price of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) in different locations in Indonesia since FFB prices
are expected to drop once the CPO export levy waiver ends.
mandates that two- and four-wheelers must contain at least 80% locally manufactured
components by 2026 and 2030, respectively.
More detailed provisions were later set out in two implementing regulations issued by
the Ministry of Industry in November 2020. The Minister of Industry Regulation 27/2020
details the calculation methodology for the TKDN and provides a development
roadmap for Indonesia's EV and battery industry, and Minister of Industry Regulation
28/2020 which requires assembly in Indonesia for completely knocked down (CKD)
and incompletely knocked down (IKD) vehicles. The latter also provides various tax
incentives for EV manufacturers and consumers.
Figure 4. Battery swap stations (SPBKLU) & Charging station points (SPKLU)
Indonesia is set to build its first EV battery plant and aims to begin production by 2023.
The project is being initiated by Indonesia Battery Corp (IBC), a holding company
consisting of four state-owned enterprises, namely Mining Industry Indonesia (MIND ID),
Pertamina, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), and Aneka Tambang in partnership with a
consortium led by South Korea's LG Group in what will be an initial investment worth
USD 1.2 billion.1
1
Approximate equivalent value of USD using the exchange rate on 31 December 202
The total investment for the IBC-LG project is estimated to reach USD 9.8 billion and
employ 1,000 workers. The Deltamas industrial area in Bekasi, West Java province, has
been chosen as the facility site it is located only two hours from Jakarta by road and the
project site will span some 33 hectares. The facility is expected to have a capacity of 10
GWh, with the batteries manufactured there slated to be used in Hyundai electric
vehicles.
With Indonesia looking to boost investment in its EV battery sector to USD 33 billion by
2033, the country presents ample opportunities for foreign EV manufacturers.
OJK focuses on expanding public financial access policies by carrying out various
programs including:
• Regional Financial Access Acceleration Team (TPAKD), which is the coordination
forum to increase the acceleration of access to finance. In 2022, a total of 462
TPAKD had been formed.
• One Account, One Student (KEJAR) is the implementation of Presidential
regulation 26/2019 concerning Indonesia Saving Day and the formation of
2
Approximate equivalent value of USD using the exchange rate on 31 December 2022
3
Approximate equivalent value of USD using the exchange rate on 31 December 2022
Indonesian Student with Saving Programs. As of 2022, KEJAR had reached 81.06%
of Indonesian students, which achieved the Indonesian government's target of 80%.
• Student Savings (SimPel/SimPel iB) is a product to expand students' access to
finance. To date, there have been 42 million SimPel saving accounts with a total
nominal value of IDR 7.1 trillion.
• Student and Youth Savings (SiMuda), which is a saving program for youth
equipped with insurance features and investment products. In 2022, there were
584 thousand accounts with a nominal value of IDR 1.8 trillion.
• Credit/Financing Against Moneylenders (KPMR) is a credit/financing service with a
fast, easy, and low-cost process for the MSMEs. As of 2022, there were almost one
million customers and fund disbursed amounting to IDR 25.6 trillion.
Figure 7. National Financial Index Inclusion and Financial Inclusion by Financial Services
Sector
A National Survey of Financial Literacy and Inclusion (SNLIK) conducted by the OJK
shows an improvement in the financial inclusion of the Indonesian people. Based on the
survey results, the level of financial inclusion increased to 85.1% compared to 76.19%
in 2019. Even though it continues to increase, the level of financial inclusion is still below
the target set by the government. In 2024, the Government and OJK are targeting to
reach 90%.
Furthermore, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $500 million loan to
promote financial inclusion in Indonesia through reforms. Those reforms are anchored
on digital infrastructure to promote financial inclusion, that also include financial
technology and private sector collaboration, along with an enhanced regulatory
framework to supervise market conduct and consumer protection. Other efforts, such
as building up financial and digital financial literacy, will also be intensified.
The other leaders are Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Danish Prime Minister
Mette Frederiksen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Amor
Mottley, and President of Senegal Macky Sall.
Rising energy costs contribute to the vicious cycle of tight household budgets, food
insecurity, energy poverty, and escalating social discontent, worsening the cost-of-living
issue. The problem threatens hard-won improvements in access to electricity and has
a profound effect on disadvantaged communities in emerging nations.
Figure 6. Russia-Ukraine War drives up the trade deficit in selected commodities for low-
income countries in 2022
The conflict has significantly impacted global financial, oil, and food sectors, driving
commodity prices to all-time highs. According to UN’s preliminary study, up to 1.7 billion
people in 107 economies, predominantly in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America,
and the Caribbean, are exposed to at least one of the three dangers. Up to 1.7 billion
people in Africa, Asia, the Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean are exposed to at
least one of three threats across 107 economies. Even one risk can have such severe
consequences as debt difficulties, food shortages, and outages.
scheduled to host the G20 Summit in 2023, but an exchange was made with India in
2022 as Indonesia is scheduled hold the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023.
Changing the term of the presidency left Indonesia with limited time to prepare.
Furthermore, the global economy was having a rough time at the start of 2022. While the
global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was just starting, supply chain problems
began surfacing. Moreover, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February drastically escalated
geopolitical tensions and it further pushed up commodity prices. This increased global
inflation and uncertainty.
Under the G20 Bali Leaders' Declaration the Leaders agreed upon five important points:
• Staying agile and flexible in macro-economic policy responses and cooperation
while continuing public investment and structural reforms and promoting private
investment and multilateral trade.
• Protecting macroeconomic and financial stability and remaining committed to using
all available tools to strengthen financial resilience, promote sustainable finance
and capital flow, and reduce risks.
• Promoting food and energy security and market stability by providing temporary
and targeted support to cushion the impact of rising prices and strengthening
dialogue between producers and consumers.
• Catalyzing innovative financing and private investment in low- and middle-income
countries to support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs).
• Recommitting to accelerate achievement of the SDGs, achieving prosperity for all
through sustainable development.
• Indonesia-China
The governments of Indonesia and China signed a number of bilateral agreements
in the fields of economy, maritime, and trade after the G20 Summit in Bali. The five
agreements are as follows:
• Joint promotion plan within the framework of the Global Maritime Axis and
Belt and Road Initiative
• Joint development of the center for conservation, research, innovation of
Indonesian-Chinese medicinal plants and banana
• Industrial vocational training in the industrial sector
• Improving digital economy cooperation
• Expansion and deepening of bilateral economic and trade collaboration
(BETC)
BETC acts as a legal umbrella for both countries' economic and trade cooperations.
China and Indonesia agreed to renew the BETC agreement since the previous
agreement expired in April 2021. The renewal of the agreement demonstrated the
• Indonesia-United States
During the G20 Summit President, Joe Biden unveiled a transformative new
Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) initiatives that will
accelerate Indonesia's clean energy transition and promote enduring prosperity.
The new initiatives include:
• Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP)
• Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact
• Carbon Capture Initiative
JETP will mobilize USD 20 billion in public and private sector financing in Indonesia.
Meanwhile, the MCC Compact, which is worth USD 698 million, will later support
the development of high-quality, climate-conscious transportation infrastructures,
mobilize international capital in support of Indonesia's development goals by
building the capacity of Indonesia's financial markets, and increase access to
finance for women owned business and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs). A USD 2.5 billion agreement between Exxon Mobil and Pertamina has
also been secured. The fund will be used to study the development of a regional
carbon capture and isolation hub in Indonesia. This partnership will later enable
key industry sectors to decarbonize, including the refining chemicals, cement, and
steel sectors, thereby lowering carbon emissions while creating economic
opportunities.
• Indonesia-Turkey
The two countries have agreed to accelerate energy transition by establishing
collaboration in the procurement of electric buses through a B-to-B scheme. The
agreement between business actors has been carried out by Turkish electric bus
producer Karsan with PT. Schahmindo Perkasa (Credo Group). In addition, Turkey
will also make investments in the Trans Sumatra Toll Road Project. Furthermore,
President Joko Widodo and his counterpart President Recep Tayyib Erdogan
agreed to negotiate a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA),
which is a scheme of economic cooperation of both countries that is broader than
just trade.
This amount is the largest climate finance commitment for a developing country ever
carried out. Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar
Pandjaitan said the Indonesian government would lead the preparation of an investment
action plan under the Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) platform managed by PT SMI
(Sarana Multi Infrastruktur).
Under the JETP, Indonesia must reduce emissions from the electricity sector to 290
million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2030 before reaching zero in 2050. Indonesia
must also increase its mix of new and renewable energy (NRE) to 34% of its total
electricity generation in 2030.
The Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Director Bhima Yudhistira said that
JETP funding is significant, and it will be paid out in grants, highly concessional loans,
commercial loans, guarantees, and technical assistance (TA). The deals are taken amid
the global trend of rising interest rates.4
4
From “Restructuring Debt of Poorer Nations Requires More Efficient Coordination” By Guillaume Chabert,
Martin Cerisola, Dalia Hakura. 2022. IMF
In response, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani assures that her ministry will not create new
debt from this program and will be careful in allocating the budgets with the APBN
concept. Indonesia can use the JETP funds for three to five years to reduce emissions
and to support the energy transition in Indonesia. The government will identify which
coal-fired power plant (PLTU) will be retired earlier. Sri Mulyani said the government will
assess the energy cost per unit to determine the use of JETP funds in the future.
On November 30, 2022, the WTO ruled that Indonesia's export ban and domestic
processing requirement on nickel ore violate WTO rules. The Indonesian Minister of
Trade confirms that the government would submit an appeal.
Despite the WTO decision, Indonesia continues to ban nickel exports and applies similar
rules to other raw commodities like coal, bauxite, copper, and gold. Indonesia banned
nickel ore exports from the start of 2020. The Indonesian government has claimed that
its raw nickel export ban, which started in January 2021, has shown positive impact after
seeing increases in mining investments and exports of nickel-derived products. The
Indonesian government has long desired to add value to domestic mining products,
especially nickel.
On December 12, 2022, Indonesia filed an appeal against the WTO panel ruling in favor
of the EU. The panel said Indonesia's ban on nickel ore exports violated global trade
rules. The EU argued that Indonesian export restrictions on raw materials unfairly harmed
its stainless-steel industry.
There are most likely two main reasons behind the Indonesian nickel export ban policy.
The first is that the development of smelter technology in Indonesia will likely propel
domestic demand for nickel ore. Indonesia currently has 21 smelters out of the targeted
53 smelters in 2024. Domestic nickel ore demand from the increasing smelters is
predicted to reach 100 million tons by 2022 and will continue to increase. Processed
nickel has a higher quality and price, generating more export revenue for Indonesia than
nickel ore. Instead of being sold abroad, the government aims to store domestic nickel
ore for smelters.
The second is Indonesia's nickel export ban policy aims to develop domestic downstream
industries related to nickel commodities. The Indonesian government aims to attract
more investment in the downstream nickel industry, mainly related to the electric battery
industry.
Currently, Indonesia can only produce Class 2 nickel derivative products for stainless
steel. Meanwhile, Class 1 nickel derivative products are needed to manufacture electric
batteries. In his statement, President Jokowi wants Indonesian nickel to be upgraded to
Class 1 nickel products for lithium batteries in EVs. The Class 1 nickel processing
industry is considered lucrative for Indonesia's nickel industry.
Several Chinese Businesses have shown interest in nickel refining and processing in
Indonesia. GEM Co. has committed around USD 30 billion to invest and become partners
in Indonesia's nickel industry development projects. In mid-April 2022, battery giant
producers CATL also began exploring investment in nickel mining and EV battery
production in Indonesia.
Indonesia's policy to ban nickel ore exports is not a risk-free step. It will only bring
benefits if it is balanced with special attention and risk mitigation from the Indonesian
government.
1.2.5 European Union bans imports of goods linked to deforestation and its impact
on Indonesia.
The EU ratified a new law to prevent companies from selling soy, beef, coffee, and other
commodities linked to deforestation into the EU market on December 6, 2022. Failure to
comply could result in fines of up to 4% of a company's turnover. The law was announced
to enter into force 20 days later, although some rules may come into force within 18
months. Countries including Brazil, Indonesia, Colombia, and Malaysia have criticized the
EU plan, warning that the regulations will be burdensome and costly.
fertilizer, aluminum, and electricity. Companies importing these goods into the EU must
purchase carbon emission certificates. The levy design prevents European industry from
being undercut by cheap goods made in countries with weaker environmental
regulations.
The EU is eager to become the first region to impose a carbon tax on certain imported
goods that may work like trade protection due to its ability to strengthen the
competitiveness of products made by EU members. After completing the preparation
through the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) scheme, CBAM will take
effect in 2026.
CBAM will threaten Indonesia's export commodities to Europe, such as steel, aluminum,
cement, fertilizers, crude palm oil (CPO), and electricity, which are not carbon-free.
CBAM can pressure EU trading partners, especially developing countries, to participate
in efforts to reduce emissions. The proportion of CPO, on average, reaches 20% of
Indonesia's total annual exports to Europe. If it cannot meet the CBAM criteria, the market
for Indonesian products to the European Union will continue to shrink.
However, the EU would most likely insist on unilaterally imposing its own benchmarking
and its deforestation-free label without giving more time to producers to meet all the
sustainability requirements. It has become imperative now for Indonesia to expand its
palm oil market to the Middle East aggressively, Latin America, and other Asian
countries.
Despite the fact that the Omicron variant and its subvariants were present in Indonesia,
the Indonesian government has been able to overcome the pandemic. On December 30,
2022, President Joko Widodo decided to fully stop the restrictions on community
activities along with the smaller positive case rate and mortality rate.
IndoVac is one of two local vaccines entering the mass production phase. The other is
Inavac, produced by Airlangga University (Unair) and PT Biotis Pharmaceutical, based
on an inactivated virus platform. Meanwhile, the recombinant receptor binding domain
(RBD) protein component is the foundation of the IndoVac vaccine. Next year, Bio Farma
will create 120 million doses of the IndoVac vaccine.
The facilities for Inavac might be larger than those for the Indovac vaccine since Biotis
has planned a local vaccine manufacturing capacity of 250 million doses per year. In
2023, these two vaccinations will serve as the program's mainstay, replacing imported
vaccines that were utilized the previous two years.
The FMD outbreak is expected to cause a potential loss of approximately USD 1.37 billion
in the national economy due to livestock movement restrictions and decreased livestock
productivity measures to stamp out the disease.
To increase efforts on enhancing biosecurity protocols and controlling the disease, the
Government of Indonesia has extended international collaboration by working closely
with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and numerous international partners,
such as the Government of Australia. The Australian government has committed USD
3.46 million to support Indonesia's response and mitigation measures in Timor-Leste and
Papua New Guinea, where the disease has not yet been detected. In addition, four million
FMD vaccines have been delivered to Indonesia.
As of September 25, 2022, the FMD Handling Task Force (Satgas PMK) stated that over
three million animals had undergone vaccination. Furthermore, to date, there are 12
provinces that no longer report cases of FMD transmission in livestock. Meanwhile, there
are still five provinces with a high number of FMD cases, namely Central Java, East Java,
West Nusa Tenggara, Yogyakarta, and South Sulawesi.
The working-age population in 2022 is 209.42 million people, making the unemployment
rate still higher since many working-age people have been affected by the COVID-19
pandemic. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine War has triggered a boom in world energy and
food commodity prices, pushing the inflation rate up. As the Minister of Home Affairs
said, high inflation can eventually cause a domino effect to a social crisis, unemployment,
high prices, poorer population, and security.
Several prominent companies, such as Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison, decided to lay off
their employees in August and September 2022. In the tech sector, Shopee Indonesia
reduced 3% of its 6,232 employees, while startup Tokocrypto let go of 20% of its
employees.
Apart from going out of business, many startups laid off their employees early this year,
including Xendit, Carsome, Mobile Premier League (MPL), Lummo, Tanihub, Mamikos,
Zenius, JD.ID, Line, Beres.id, Pahamify, LinkAja, SiCepat, and Yummy Corp. Most
recently, Grab will also lay off due to the closure of the GrabKitchen service. Edutech
startup Binar Academy will also lay off 20% of its employees. It also revealed that at least
seven startup companies stopped operating or went bankrupt: Fabelio, Sorabel, Stoqo,
iFlix, Airy Rooms, Uang Teman, and Bananas.
The next wave of layoffs will likely hit labor-intensive companies experiencing production
disruptions due to raw material shortages or sluggish markets. Indonesian Textile
Association (API) data revealed that 43,000 textile and textile factory workers had been
laid off this year. Meanwhile, the Association of Indonesian Fiber and Filament Yarn
Producers noted that around 1,500 workers had been furloughed.
1.3.3 Russia-Ukraine War and its impact on Indonesia’s food and energy crisis
The war in Ukraine is impacting countries all over the world, despite many of them being
geographically distant. Indonesia is one of these countries. When it comes to wheat,
Indonesia buys most of its imported wheat from Ukraine. In 2020 alone, Indonesia
imported 2.96 million tons of wheat from Ukraine. Although wheat isn't Indonesia's staple
food, it is used to make one of the country's most popular local soul food –instant noodles.
Other than that, the situation also affects price for cooking oil in Indonesia. With export
activities of the two main suppliers being heavily disrupted by war, demand for an
alternative type, like palm oil, soared. Thus, due to increased global demand, Indonesia
has seen the price of palm oil skyrocket.
Between April and May, the Indonesian government imposed a restriction on palm oil
export to ensure domestic supply. Furthermore, because of the Russia-Ukraine War, the
supply of crude oil to the international market has also been disrupted. Pertamina then
must increase the price of non-subsidized fuel.
year's APEC Summit was the agreement on the 2022 APEC Economic Leaders'
Declaration and the Bangkok Goals for the Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy.
The 2022 Leaders' Declaration, which was issued at the conclusion of the 29th APEC
Economic Leaders' Meeting, affirmed APEC leaders' long-standing commitment to
promote strong, balanced, secure, sustainable, and inclusive growth as well as to
realizing the APEC Putrajaya Vision 2040. The Bangkok Goals will chart APEC's new
course on a sustainability development agenda by projecting the vision and direction laid
out in the Putrajaya Vision 2040 and the Aotearoa Plan of Action, two previous APEC
initiatives.
To carry out a green transition, Indonesia will need USD 323 billion to achieve its NDC
target in 2030. Therefore, the country is urging APEC to establish a financing mechanism
to support its members efforts to carry out energy transition.
Indonesia already uses biodiesel with a 30% blend of palm oil-based fuel known as B30
and may use biodiesel with a 35% blend of palm oil-based fuel (B35), starting in February
2023. The palm oil-based fuel allocation for 2023 is estimated at around 13 million
kiloliters. Indonesian President Joko Widodo told his cabinet to prepare for the
mechanism of B35 implementation amid expectations that global crude oil prices will
remain high in 2023.
Meanwhile, the energy ministry has been running trials for biodiesel containing 40% fuel
made using palm oil (B40). The road tests show that fuel-use efficiency is similar to the
B30 blend. They also showed that engines can start about one second after ignition and
that the car can use the mixture in higher elevation areas with temperatures between 17-
18 Celsius.
Furthermore, the usage of biofuels is poised to enter a new phase in Indonesia. The
government intends to test commercially combining bioethanol and gasoline next year.
The experiment will be conducted in stages throughout the initial phase. The commercial
trial of 5% bioethanol blending with gasoline or E5 will roll out in Surabaya.
President Joko Widodo through the Cabinet Secretary stated that the 2023 budget
prioritized human capital development, strategic national projects (Proyek Strategis
Nasional/PSN), economic transformation infrastructure, green economy development, and
social security reform.
The Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) indicated that the revision
would scrutinize developer and investor terms and conditions, specifically in the areas of
relocation financing. The revision aims to strengthen the arbitrary role of IKN Authorities
(Otoritas IKN), a capital city relocation task force that coordinates and manages budgets
for the Nusantara's development.
The revision of Law 3/2022 is crucial to attracting more investors or bio massive
programs, considering that only 20% of the project funding comes from public financing.
One of the objectives of the revision is to strengthen the jurisdiction of IKN Authorities in
orchestrating the development plan, which could catalyze investors' interest in the
project.
The government's vision of a new capital city poses several development expectations
in the region, both for the local region and neighboring countries, such as Malaysia, the
Philippines, and Brunei Darussalam. East Kalimantan also offers strategic proximity to
key trade routes, such as the Celebes Sea, Arafura Sea, and the Pacific Ocean. This
decision highlights the importance of central and eastern Indonesia as a future hub for
economic activities. The development also catalyzes Indonesia's bilateral relationship
with Malaysia, the Middle East (specifically the UAE and Saudi Arabia), and China to help
with the infrastructure development for the new city.
Besides new opportunities, the relocation also poses some challenges. Civil society
noted several concerns from an environmental perspective as the capital city
development has the potential to exacerbate existing damage due to past coal mining
activities in the area.5 There are also concerns regarding the development's assurance
of essential infrastructure, human resources quality, and socio-cultural stability. Certainty
on the prevention of red tape, land ownership resolutions, and power-sharing between
the provincial and national government authorities is also a concern cited by some
commentators.
The P2SK Law is a financial omnibus law reform that updates obsolete past financial
regulations, such as the Banking Law (1992), Deposit Assurance Agency (LPS) Law
(2004), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Law (2011). Several articles within
the law strengthen the impact of the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), Financial Services
Authority (OJK), and The Deposit Assurance Agency (LPS) on Indonesia's financial
sector stability. Moreover, the law stipulates that this should be coordinated between the
above institutions in the events of a crisis.
Establishing the P2SK Law also means navigating Indonesia's financial sector challenges:
balancing consumer protection and overcoming the dynamic growth of the financial
industry. Financial instruments in Indonesia have become increasingly complex and
diverse. Meanwhile, OJK reported through its National Survey of Financial Literacy and
Inclusion in 2022 that 35.42% of Indonesian financial service consumers lack an
understanding of the financial products and services they were using. The law's
recognition and supervisory stipulation on the digital Rupiah, crypto assets, bullion
banks, financial technology innovation sector (ITSK), and carbon markets set a legal
foundation that can drive legal certainty for the corresponding sectors.
Due to the omnibus nature of the amendments, several clauses may require further
scrutiny to determine their impact on private companies through the implementation of
regulations. Article 339 regulated that the ratification of the derivative regulations should
occur within the next two years upon P2SK Law's ratification, where the private sector
could provide input on substance for the lawmakers through either relevant business
associations and chambers or the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) under the Ministry of
Finance.
5
New Mandala, “A new capital city for who? Central-local tensions in Indonesia”. Aug 23, 2022.
linked to the political systems, as the executive branch of the government has the power
to determine the policy direction and authority in various sectors of the economy.
Although the election campaign period is agreed to only last for 75 days, the race for
votes starts long before the specified election date. The latest survey on candidate
electability shows that Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, and Prabowo Subianto have
the highest rating among all potential candidates. Two political parties, Nasdem (National
Democratic) and Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement Party), have already declared for
Anies Baswedan and Prabowo, respectively, as their presidential candidates.
2.4.1 Nickel
Entering 2023, Indonesia has submitted an appeal to the WTO for the EU's lawsuit against
Indonesia's nickel ore export restrictions. The appeal stands as Indonesia’s policy to
proceed with nickel down-stream development. Not only the government, but political
party factions (namely Social Justice Party/PKS6 and National Democratic/NasDem7)
within the parliament, also indicated support towards nickel down-stream development.
2.4.2 Bauxite
The Indonesian government has invested between USD 1.350 billion and USD 4.309
billion in bauxite industrialization at the same time as it begins to implement the
announced export ban on bauxite ore starting in June 2023. Similar to nickel, the
Indonesian government sees this policy as increasing human resources, export value
quality, and economic opportunity.
Indonesia’s private sector has expressed concern regarding the domestic industry’s
ability to capitalize on the plan, saying that the industry could only take in 28% of the
national total ore (a roughly 35 million ton gap). The Indonesia Chamber of Commerce
hopes for more smelters to accommodate the plan beyond the four existing smelters in
Riau and West Kalimantan.8
With concerns regarding domestic capacity, it is expected that there will be regulatory
modifications in 2023 related to bauxite mining permits, taxes, and investment incentives
in support of Indonesia's bauxite industrialization efforts.
6
Indonesia House of Representatives. Ban on nickel and copper export is appreciated. September 13,
2022.
7
Indonesia House of Representatives e-media. Maximize legal efforts in appealing the nickel export
lawsuit. December 16, 2022.
8
Katadata. Business practitioners unready to face bauxite export ban in June 2023. December 22,
2022.
The potential exists that Indonesia's palm oil focus in 2023 will be on building palm oil
alliances and expanding more trade partnerships. China's reopening and lifting of its
zero-covid policy gives potential for Indonesia to secure more trade deals linked to palm
oil. Indonesia also has expanded its palm oil exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
Nigeria, South Korea, Egypt, and others, through partnership deals in crude palm oil
(CPO). This expansion comes at the same time as the EU's anti-deforestation law
imposed on Indonesia's and other palm oil-producing countries.
In addition to the EU's policy challenge to Indonesia's palm oil trade, Indonesia's Ministry
of Trade decreased the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) to export ratio to 1:6 from
the previous 1:8. The strategy is to anticipate increased domestic cooking oil demand
and to control cooking oil prices ahead of the festive month of Ramadan or throughout
first quarter of 2023.
Another highlight of an upcoming domestic palm oil regulation is the mandatory 35%
palm biodiesel blend (B35) planned by the government to start on February 1, 2023. The
mandate will apply to diesel fuel businesses with cetane numbers below 51. Biodiesel
was previously mandated to have a 30% blend, in which the increased composition could
stabilize demand for palm oil stocks at the smallholder level.
President Joko Widodo's idea of “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth” conveys that
Indonesia seeks to maintain ASEAN's resilient economic growth during the post-
pandemic recovery amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. Indonesia's Chairmanship
proposes focusing on the food crisis, possible economic recession, and regional peace.
President Joko Widodo spoke about bringing forward plans to brace the region for
recession through fiscal and monetary instruments as well as inclusive and collaborative
maritime coordination that adheres to the “Rules of the Game.”
Following the success of Indonesia's 2022 Presidency of the G20 Forum and its active
participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping, Indonesia's
ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 is seen by many as another testament to Indonesia's
“independent and active” foreign policy. International relations experts have said that the
diplomatic principles demonstrated during G20 will likely be implemented during
Indonesia’s ASEAN chairmanship. That same approach will be used to address
unresolved challenges such as the Myanmar post-coup violence and South China Sea
disputes.
In 2023, as the chair of ASEAN, Indonesia is planning to hold the first Indo-Pacific
Infrastructure and Connectivity Forum to implement an economic cooperation agenda in
the region. The forum aims to ensure connected initiatives in the Indo-Pacific and support
the ASEAN Master Plan on the ASEAN Connectivity 2025.
The event will be an important venue for ASEAN to achieve its economic recovery and
ASEAN-led infrastructure development. Currently, investment in infrastructure
development relies on other countries' agendas such as the Belt and Road Initiative from
China, PGII from the US, and the Global Gateway Investment Strategy from the EU.
Additionally, the AOIP also highlighted the importance of maritime domain. The Indo-
Pacific region is an area that is covered by a large amount of water areas, compromising
the Indian and Pacific oceans. Critical oceanic issues that need to be addressed include
maritime environment and pollution, exploitation of marine resources, transnational
maritime crime, and the blue economy and marine science collaboration. At this moment,
the AOIP has not yet covered maritime security, but inclusion of that topic is possible in
consideration of current disputes in the South China Sea.
3 Analysis
The year 2045 will mark the 100th Anniversary of Indonesia's independence. In anticipation
of that important milestone, the government strives to ensure that Indonesia is a sovereign,
progressive, fair, and prosperous nation. To accelerate achievement of that goal, the
Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) has prepared Indonesia Vision
2045 to set the future path to becoming an advanced economy.
Under the optimistic and baseline economic growth scenarios with an initial average of
5.7% and 5.1% GDP growth until 2045, Indonesia is expected to become a high-income
country within 18 to 20 years and the fifth to the seventh largest economy in 2045. The
strategy to achieve this vision is built upon four pillars: (1) human development and the
mastery of science and technology; (2) sustainable economic development; (3) equitable
development; and (4) national resilience and governance.
The accomplishment in 2022 was one of the key milestones in leading up to the Indonesia
Vision 2045. In the area of trade, the government actively promoted domestic products to
accelerate national economic recovery as the nation enters the post-pandemic era. The
issuance of Presidential Regulation 32/2022 sets out the foundation for a commodity
balance. The purpose of this regulation is to simplify the trade licensing process and to
provide policymakers with more centralized data to make decisions about trade. The
commodity balance is also the primary reference in determining export or import quotas.
Amongst others, nickel, bauxite, and palm oil are the affected commodities under the
export bans imposed by the government. The brief suspension of the key commodities
from Indonesia shook global markets and exacerbated existing global supply concerns.
Considering these enormous challenges, the government has emphasized that banning
key commodities will increase value for Indonesia and create investment opportunities.
Along with the aspiration of national economic recovery, the government continues its
ambition to promote EV conversion. With an initial investment worth USD 1.2 billion, the
national EV battery plant project is initiated to be kicked off by Indonesia Battery Corp (IBC)
in 2023. The plan is supported by the local content requirements (TKDN), which mandate
that two- and four-wheeler EVs must contain at least 80% locally manufactured
components by 2026 and 2030.
However, the TKDN is pressing foreign manufacturers to establish its facility and
counterpart with a local entity in Indonesia. In return, the manufacturers will be eligible to
receive various tax incentives from the government. With Indonesia looking to boost
investment in its EV battery sector to USD 33 billion by 2033, the country presents exciting
opportunities for foreign EV business players to invest.
In the area of financial inclusion, the government has set a target to achieve 90% financial
inclusion by 2024, up from 76% in 2022. With multilateral support from Asian Development
Bank (ADB), the Financial Services Authority (OJK) will manage a USD 500 million loan to
promote financial inclusion, digital infrastructure, financial technology, and private sector
collaboration, along with an enhanced regulatory framework to supervise market conduct
and consumer protection.
With the conclusion of the G20 Presidency, Indonesia has some clear advantages in
utilizing a number of bilateral and multilateral agreements. In terms of the energy transition,
the Joko Widodo administration appears to be taking a proactive approach to secure
commitments from the country's bilateral and multilateral agreements. Its cooperation
partners are China, the US, Japan, UK, South Korea, Turkey, and the UAE.
Aligned with the bilateral agreement, a multilateral plan titled Just Energy Transition
Partnership (JETP) is currently in the works for the Ministry of Finance to lead. Under the
Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) platform, USD 20 billion will be managed by the
special mission vehicle, PT SMI (Sarana Multi Infrastruktur, Persero). The proposed
strategy will allocate funds to expanding renewable energy, reducing coal-fired power, and
enhancing energy efficiency.
In 2022, EGA also recorded some notable challenges faced by the government. One of the
challenges that could lead to opportunity was the Indonesia-EU dispute on nickel. Experts
recommend the government consider the potential revenue loss from a ban on nickel
exports. The ban on nickel exports risks the diminution of state tax revenue from
companies and export duties, so state revenues from the downstream nickel industry must
be able to replace the loss.
One effort that can be made is to create incentives to attract investors. The government
can offer tax holidays or tax leave and reductions to corporate income tax (PPh)
exemptions for a certain period. Several investors have shown interest in nickel refining
and processing in Indonesia, including Chinese company GEM Co. and Chinese battery
giant producers CATL.
On the other hand, Indonesia was also among the countries that criticized the European
Union's scheme on Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will be effective
in 2026. The plan prevents companies from selling commodities linked to deforestation
into the EU market. The Indonesian government views it as threatening the country's
essential export commodities to Europe, including crude palm oil (CPO), iron, steel, and
aluminum.
Experts recommend that the government and producers focus on developing market
standards accepted by partner countries, such as India, China, Pakistan, and several other
Asian countries with larger markets. Therefore, the government should realistically refocus
on two key market-development areas.
The first is to expand and strengthen non-European export markets with a specific focus
on adopting science-based sustainability standards. The second is to create new
comprehensive market standards for non-EU export markets, which go beyond but include
sustainability, fair trade, and human rights.
Aside from the positive outlook for vaccine manufacturing, Indonesia experienced a foot-
and-mouth outbreak in livestock in 2022. The disease was found in 26 provinces, and there
have been more than 570,000 cases, with more than 9,000 deaths and 12,650 animals
culled. As a response to mitigation measures supported by FAO and the Australian
government, the government's Task Force (Satgas PMK) announced in December 2022
that over three million animals had undergone vaccinations with a notable decrease in
active cases and affected areas.
Another challenge is coming from unemployment. The Statistics Agency Indonesia (BPS)
recorded that the number of unemployed in 2022 was 8.42 million. Apart from going out
of business, many startups laid off their employees early this year. The next wave of layoffs
will likely hit labor-intensive companies experiencing production disruptions due to raw
material shortages or sluggish markets. Experts said challenges to expand job
opportunities, especially in the formal sector and new work culture, also play essential roles
in magnifying the situation.
The war in Ukraine is also impacting food and energy pricing in Indonesia. As export
activities of two major suppliers were disrupted by war, demand for alternative commodity
resources like palm oil soared. The Indonesian government restricted palm oil export
between April and May to support domestic consumption. On top of the rising food prices,
the supply of crude oil to the international market has also been disrupted. The state-
owned oil and gas company, Pertamina, has increased the price of non-subsidized fuel
due to the crisis.
Starting last year, the Indonesian government has initiated diversifying national energy
sources by developing biofuels (BBN) as an alternative energy source. It has established
a national task force for renewable energy (Timnas BBN) to develop a roadmap for the
national transition to renewable energy. Based on Indonesia's renewable energy roadmap,
biofuels are expected to constitute 5% of the national energy mix by 2025 or increase to
22.26 billion liters of biodiesel, bioethanol, and bio-oil.
Entering 2023, Indonesia offers a generally positive outlook in the areas of economic
growth, trade, and investment. Maintaining economic growth and holding inflation below
3% are the top priorities for the Indonesian government. With the passage of the Financial
Sector Development and Strengthening Law (P2SK Law), Indonesia will be in a better
position to cope with the challenges confronting its financial sector: maintaining consumer
protection while adjusting to the industry’s dynamic growth.
We anticipate that the three key commodities in 2023 will still be nickel, bauxite, and palm
oil. As it has done with nickel, the government aims to increase export quality and
economic opportunity distribution through its industrialization strategy. Despite the global
recession and trade barriers, palm oil is expected to add 12.8% to the country’s export
value in 2023. In 2023, the government plans to expand the palm oil market and continue
expanding its trade.
In the domestic political arena, the current electoral race could impact Indonesian
economic and political priorities. There is a tendency for more inward-looking economic
policies leading to the 2024 election, determined by potential candidates' policy plans to
strengthen electability. Businesses should maintain neutrality and make considerable
efforts to stay on top of the ever-shifting policy dynamics.
Another notable development to monitor in 2023 includes the revision of Law 3/2022
regarding Nusantara Capital City (IKN). Due to the fact that only 20% of the project funding
comes from public sources, the government, through the Ministry of National Development
Planning (Bappenas) indicated the need for parliament to revise the law so, the law is listed
under the National Legislation Priority 2023.
About EGA
Edelman Global Advisory (EGA) is a boutique firm providing business, government, and
advisory services to navigate today’s changing geopolitical and economic landscape. Based
in Washington, D.C., EGA has deep expertise on the ground in the US and Canada,
APAC, MENA, Europe, Latin America, and India. EGA’s team members work seamlessly with
Edelman’s other 6,000+ world-class communications professionals to align political and
regulatory strategies with communications and messaging around policy issues.
EGA President Agung Yudha leads our Indonesia Team with the support of Ridwana Saleh,
Senior Vice President, Advisory & Trade. The team has extensive experience working with the
government, NGOs, the private sector, and representing firms across various sectors in
navigating the everchanging Indonesian political and regulatory landscape to achieve their
business goals.
Glossary
Anggaran Pendapatan dan A national state budget that outlines revenue and
Belanja Negara (APBN) spending targets for a financial year.
Aotearoa Plan of Action APEC’s individual and collective implementation plan for
the APEC Putrajaya Vision 2040.
APEC Putrajaya Vision 2040 A vision convened by APEC countries for 2020-2040 in
areas of Trade and Investment, Innovation and
Digitalization, and Economic Growth.
EU's Law on Deforestation-Free A law that stipulates a set of key goods placed on the EU
Supply Chain market will no longer contribute to deforestation and
forest degradation in the EU and elsewhere in the world.
Financial Sector Development An omnibus law that updates obsolete past financial laws
and Strengthening Law (P2SK related to financial services authority and regulations.
Law)
Fiscal Policy Agency (Badan A unit under the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of
Kebijakan Fiskal/BKF) Indonesia which has a strategic role as a formulator of
fiscal and financial sector policies, with the scope of
tasks covering macroeconomics, state revenue, state
spending, financing, the financial sector and
international cooperation.
FMD Handling Task Force A task force with cross-coordination function between
(Satuan Tugas Penanganan central and provincial government in handling the Foot
Penyakit Mulut dan Kuku/Satgas and Mouth Disease in Indonesia.
PMK)
Nusantara Capital City (Ibu Kota Indonesia is planning to move its capital from Jakarta in
Nusantara/IKN) Java to a new city named Nusantara in East Kalimantan
on the island of Borneo.
Priority National Legislation The priority scale for the formulation of laws in the
(Prolegnas Prioritas) context of realizing a national legal system in Indonesia.
Second Home Visa A type of permit that allows foreigners to entry and stay
in Indonesia for 5 or 10 years.
Simpanan Mahasiswa dan Savings program for youth between the ages of 18-30.
Pemuda (SiMuda)
Sistem Nasional Neraca Digital applications simplify and speed up the data
Komoditas (SiNas NK) submission process between business actors and the
government.
Stasiun Penukaran Baterai Public battery swap station. Electric vehicles have a
Kendaraan Listrik Umum battery as a place to store electric power. The battery in
(SPBKLU) the vehicle can be exchanged at SPBKLU.
State-Owned Enterprise (Badan Indonesian government entity to earn profit for the
Usaha Milik Negara/BUMN) government, control monopoly of the private sector
entities, provide products and services to citizens at
lower price and for the achievement of overall financial
goals and developmental objectives.
Survei Nasional Literasi dan National-scale survey held every three years by the
Inklusi Keungan (SNLIK) Financial Services Authority to map the current state of
Indonesian financial literacy and inclusion.
Sustainable Development Goals Call to action adopted by all United Nations on members
(SDGs) to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that all
people enjoy peace and prosperity.