Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Passive

Seismic Tomography
in Polkowice-Sieroszowice Copper Ore
Mine, SW Poland

A. B. Gogolewska and D. Smolak

1 Introduction

Since the very beginning of exploitation in 1970s, seismic shocks and their effects,
namely, rock bursts, have constituted the most dangerous threat to miners and equip-
ment in underground mines excavating copper ore in the southwest part of Poland.
Three copper ore mines, Polkowice-Sieroszowice mining plant, Rudna mining plant
and Lubin mining plant, which belong to the KGHM Polish Copper JSC, have been
using special exploitation technology to provide work safety. Therefore, such tech-
nology should include rock burst prevention methods and techniques which would
recognize the hazard and monitor seismicity, mitigate, reduce or prevent the threat
and finally control their effects. Miners, scientists, and industrial experts have been
working on rock bursts mechanisms and technologies to improve the prevention
and its effectiveness for about 50 years [2]. Prediction of the exact place, time, and
strength of seismic events has always been of the utmost importance to mining oper-
ations. To-date, several preventive techniques and methods have been implemented
to monitor the seismic threat in the mines; however, only one of them, i.e., the passive
seismic tomography, can predict, to a certain extent, the occurrence of seismic events.
Such tomography was previously applied to determine the interior structure of the
Earth with the use of the velocity of P and S waves produced by earthquakes [6].
This calculation method was adapted in underground mines to recognize the places
of accumulated strain, stress, and potential energy, where P wave velocity should be
high and seismic anomalies positive and substantial [1, 5, 7]. Calculation of these
parameters involves spontaneous (i.e. mining-induced) seismic events recorded by

A. B. Gogolewska (B) · D. Smolak

Faculty of GeoEngineering, Mining, and Geology, Wrocław University
of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
e-mail: anna.gogolewska@pwr.edu.pl
D. Smolak
e-mail: smolakdaria@wp.pl
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 429
E. Widzyk-Capehart et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 27th International Symposium
on Mine Planning and Equipment Selection - MPES 2018,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99220-4_35
430 A. B. Gogolewska and D. Smolak

mine seismological network. To verify whether the passive seismic tomography is

reliable enough to predict seismic hazard accurately, the number, energy, and location
of spontaneous shocks and rock bursts were analyzed. Spontaneous seismic events
which occurred in several subsequent weeks after tomographic calculations were
taken into account. The location of high and low-velocity zones as well as anomaly
zones was depicted in relation to the coordinates of tremors and rock bursts. One
mining division in the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine was investigated. The imple-
mentation of the seismic tomography in the division took place in 2006. The analysis
of the results of tomographic calculations embraced the period of 2007–2016 years.
The paper describes the methodology used for assessing the effectiveness of seis-
mic hazard prediction. Verification encompassed 17 tomographic results with the
majority correctly and accurately forecasting the location of hazardous zones.

2 Research Site and Methodology Description

The study covered the G-54 mining division of the Polkowice-Sieroszowice mine,
which is located in south-western Poland, in the northern part of Lower Silesia.
The mine excavates copper and silver ores within four mining areas: Sieroszow-
ice I, Polkowice II, Radwanice Wschód (East Radwanice), and part of the Głogów
Gł˛eboki-Przemysłowy area (Deep-Industrial Glogow area) (Fig. 1). These deposits
are accessible through 10 shafts with depths of 703–1219 m and exploited by 11 min-
ing divisions and 27 exploitation fields (i.e. mine sections). The deposit depth varies
from 530 to 1120 m and the exploitation thickness changes from 1.8 to 3.9 m. The
prime method of operation is a one-step room-and-pillar system with roof deflection.
The mine is exposed to water, gas, heat, and seismic hazards as well as to rock bursts,
which pose the greatest challenge for mine services [2, 3].

2.1 Rock Burst Hazard and Prevention

Rock burst hazard in the G-54 division has always been significant. The risk factors
include high strength parameters of rocks and their capacity to accumulate energy.
Complicated tectonics and substantial depth of the deposit as well as the geometry
of exploitation fields and gobs affect the size of the threat which is reduced by
yielding the seam at the stage of deposit cutting or by group blasting works which
provoke (induce) tremors (i.e., shooting-induced tremors). Such works entail blasting
simultaneously as many mining faces as possible to distress rock mass and, thus
decrease its seismicity [2, 3].
The seismic hazard cannot be completely eliminated. However, it is possible to
partially limit it or minimize its effects by introducing preventive measures, which
involves assessing the rock mass condition, combating, mitigating or limiting the haz-
ard and evaluating the effectiveness of preventive actions. Evaluation of rock mass
Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Passive Seismic Tomography in … 431

Fig. 1 Location of mining

areas of the
Polkowice-Sieroszowice
mine, Rudna mine and Lubin
mine (OG stands for mining
area)

state plays a crucial role in the threat recognition. In the Polkowice-Sieroszowice

mine, the assessment and monitoring of the rock burst hazard employ mine seismol-
ogy, the geological recognition, the measurements of the rock mass pressure and the
underground observations. Moreover, the mine uses analytical methods, passive seis-
mic tomography, convergence measurements, and observations of the seismoacoustic
activity induced with group blasting [2, 3]. To combat the rock burst hazard, both
passive and active methods are used. The former entail activities taken at the design
stage (the appropriate choice of operating parameters), the organizational methods,
which include limiting employees’ presence in vulnerable zones and technological
ones, such as strengthening the housing. The latter involves, for example, group blast-
ing works (maximizing the number of faces shot concurrently), distressing shooting
or torpedo shooting in the surrounding rocks [2].

2.2 Passive Seismic Tomography

Mine seismological networks collect information on seismic activity induced by min-

ing operations. These data enable not only to determine epicenter location and energy
of a shock but also to examine structure and properties of the rock mass through which
seismic waves propagate. The seismic tomography is a non-invasive method of the
object structure investigation and consists in calculating seismic wave parameters
and their spatial distribution. Usually the longitudinal P wave’s travel time, velocity
and amplitude are measured to study the object interior [5]. In mines, the active and
432 A. B. Gogolewska and D. Smolak

the passive tomographies are adapted. The former uses human-induced vibrations
triggered by mechanical impact or explosives and the latter observes mining-induced
seismic activity registered by mine seismological networks. P wave velocity usually
increases with increasing stress, which may be caused by clamping the gaps and
pores in rocks. Thus, analyzing the velocity of seismic waves, it is possible to fore-
cast changes of seismic hazard. Moreover, relocation of shocks with the tomographic
calculations allows precise determination of their position without the in situ testing
[1].
The foci of strong shocks frequently occur in areas of substantial P wave velocity
and the high gradient of velocity field changes while the zones with poor seismicity
are characterized by the low P wave velocity field [6]. Due to the dynamic variability
of such fields, mainly in exploitation areas, they should be analyzed cyclically, fol-
lowing the directions of their changes in relation to the development of operational
fronts [7]. The spatial distribution of the wave velocity and seismic anomaly, allows
identification of seismic hazard zones and monitoring their variability in time and
space [2].

2.3 Research Methodology and Data

To assess the effectiveness of the passive seismic tomography in predicting seismic

hazard, the archival results of tomographic examinations and the seismic activity
of the G-54 mining division in the years 2007–2016 were investigated. The key
term here constitutes the word forecast, which is understood as the prediction of
the place, time and strength of the seismic event, thus these three parameters were
examined. The accuracy of predicting stress distribution in the rock mass by means of
seismic wave velocity and seismic anomaly obtained from tomographic calculations
was evaluated. The archival tomographic documentation obtained from the Mine
Rock Burst Department was used to describe zones of the elevated and lowered
wave velocity and seismic anomaly. The archival calculations made for a given time
period related to shocks that took place in the previous calculation period, usually
in two or three previous months. Comparing subsequent images of wave velocity
fields in moving time windows, one can follow changes in the location of particular
potentially hazardous zones. The tomographic method helps one forecast a potential
seismic risk within a specified time and space, based on empirical data [4].
The interpretation of calculation results employs the rule saying that the areas with
increased wave velocity in relation to the average one (averaged in a given area) are
the zones of the highly strained rock mass, whereas, in places with a high-velocity
gradient the release of accumulated elastic energy is extremely probable [4].
The compliance of the passive tomography results with the actual situation in
the mining excavations was checked by reference to the location of the shocks that
occurred in the period (after tomographic examinations) for which the prognosis was
prepared. The spontaneous shocks, which occurred within 8 weeks after the day of
tomographic calculations, were marked on the map. The location of the zones, the
Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Passive Seismic Tomography in … 433

maximum, minimum and average velocities as well as seismic anomalies were given
(contours on maps).
The tomographic results allowed one to identify and verify the predicted location
of the areas of the potentially highest seismic hazard. In the years 2007–2015, 22
passive tomographic tests were conducted. Since the epicenter coordinates of some
shocks were not specified, only epicenter-related ones were used for the analysis.
Moreover, the year 2010 (five measurements) was omitted as the mine and seismic
tomography used different coordinate systems during that year. Consequently, the
analysis embraced 17 tomography results. The location, number, and energy of regis-
tered spontaneous shocks were analyzed in relation to the location of seismic hazard
zones predicted by seismic tomography. High and low-velocity zones of longitudi-
nal wave as well as positive and negative seismic anomalies were investigated and
described.

3 Seismic Activity in the G-54 Mining Division

Seismic activity was depicted by the number of shocks and rock bursts in particular
years. The effectiveness of prediction was analyzed with the use of spontaneous
shocks and rock bursts, i.e., mining-induced events (not induced deliberately). The
seismic events with the energy E ≥ 103 J (E3) were considered as shocks and those
with energy E ≥ 105 J (E5) as high-energy ones.
In years 2007–2016, there were 1544 shocks, including 245 of high-energy. In
2011 and 2012, the most shocks occurred, 331 and 300, respectively. The most high-
energy events occurred in 2010 and 2013, 39 and 37, respectively. Whereas, the least
number of events occurred in 2016 and 2008, 34 and 42, respectively (Fig. 2). There
were 791 shocks with E3 energy, 598 with E4 energy, 186 with E5 energy, 44 with
E6 energy, and 15 with E7 energy (Fig. 3). It can be concluded that the seismic
activity was high.
The number of spontaneous and provoked shocks is presented in Fig. 4. There
were 1544 seismic shocks including 1066 spontaneous ones. The lowest proportion

Fig. 2 The number of

high-energy and low-energy
seismic shocks in the G-54
mining division in years
2007–2016
434 A. B. Gogolewska and D. Smolak

Fig. 3 The number of

shocks related to particular
energy classes in the G-54
mining division in years
2007–2016

Fig. 4 The number of

spontaneous
(mining-induced) and
provoked (shooting-induced)
shocks in the G-54 mining
division in years 2007–2016

Fig. 5 The number of rock

bursts in relation to
spontaneous ones in the
G-54 mining division in
years 2007–2016

of spontaneous shocks of 53% occurred in 2015 and the highest of 90% was observed
in 2008. On average 69% of spontaneous tremors were attributed to one year.
The rock bursts took place in years 2007–2011. During 5 years, there were 13
seismic events, 9 provoked, and 4 spontaneous rock bursts. In 2007, there was one
provoked and no spontaneous rock bursts. The highest proportion of spontaneous rock
bursts of 100% was in 2008. In 2009, there were two provoked and one spontaneous
rock bursts. The greatest number of rock bursts was in 2010, five events, including
one spontaneous. Two provoked and one spontaneous rock bursts occurred in 2011
(Fig. 5). The energy of 80% spontaneous rock bursts was of the order of 107 J and
that of 20% events-of 105 J (Fig. 6).
Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Passive Seismic Tomography in … 435

Fig. 6 Energy of
spontaneous rock bursts in
the G-54 mining division in
2007–2016 period

4 Effectiveness of Seismic Hazard Prediction

In 2007, in the G-54 mining division, only one study forecasting seismic activity with
the use of passive seismic tomography was performed and four high-velocity zones
were established and only one of them recorded shocks (exactly three). Practically,
all shocks took place outside these areas. The location of 60% of observed seismic
events coincided with the location of calculated high-velocity zones (Table 1). In
2009, most shocks were registered within the high-velocity zones. Unfortunately, a
strong spontaneous shock of 1.6 × 107 J, resulting in a rock burst, did not occur in any
of the calculated high-velocity zones. The percentage of shocks that occurred in these
zones was 72%. In 2011, spontaneous shocks occurred within the determined high-
velocity zones which were located along the exploitation front or near the deposit
cutting and gobs. The most seismic events took place in these areas. In July, the
zone of low wave velocity was distinguished where eight shocks with total energy
of 1.3 × 106 J occurred. Furthermore, in November a high-energy spontaneous
shock with energy of 107 J which resulted in a rock burst, was recorded outside
the calculated high-velocity zones. The location of seismic shocks was predicted
with 72% accuracy. In 2012, virtually all seismic shocks that were recorded in the
zones determined by tomography referred to the most active part of the deposit. In
the April survey, attention was paid to the low-velocity zone where three seismic
events with a total energy of 3.4 × 104 J occurred. The effectiveness of seismic
activity prediction amounted to 85%. In 2013, two tomographic examinations were
performed. The high-velocity zones were located far from the places where most
seismic events took place. The compatibility of the location of shocks and high-
velocity zones reached 66%. In 2014, one passive tomography test was carried out.
Eleven seismic spontaneous shocks occurred within three of five high-velocity zones.
The shocks that took place in the zones accounted for 69% of all shocks. In 2015,
two tomographic examinations were performed. Ten of forty-five shocks occurred
in high-velocity zones located in areas distinguished by the highest seismic activity.
In July, attention was paid to the zone of low velocities where seven seismic events
with a total energy of 1.9 × 105 J occurred. Therefore, the effectiveness of seismic
activity prediction reached only 22% (Table 1).
436 A. B. Gogolewska and D. Smolak

Table 1 The number of spontaneous seismic shocks which occurred in high-velocity zones deter-
mined with passive seismic tomography in the G-54 mining division in 2007–2015 period
Year Number of shocks Number of seismic Prediction effectiveness
shocks in high-velocity (%)
zones
2007 5 3 60
2009 71 51 72
2011 172 124 72
2012 164 139 85
2013 53 35 66
2014 16 11 69
2015 45 10 22
Total 526 375 71

The lowest percentage of accurately predicted shock location occurred in 2015

(22%). The prediction effectiveness in the remaining years reached more than 50%
with the highest value of 85% in 2012. In years 2007–2015 the average effectiveness
of seismic hazard prediction amounted to 71%.

5 Seismic Wave Velocity, Seismic Anomalies and Seismic

Activity

An attempt was made to discern the relationship between seismic activity and the
seismic anomaly as well as the seismic wave velocity within the zones of high seis-
mic hazard predicted with tomography. The connection between this velocity and
the number of shocks appearing in the predicted high-velocity zones was examined.
The largest number of seismic shocks was observed in zones with a wave velocity of
6800 m/s. The high velocity of 6100–6800 m/s was obtained in the years 2007–2011.
In the following subsequent years, these velocities did not exceed 6000 m/s, which
could be caused by gradual deterioration of roof conditions or operations in the near-
fault zone and disturbances in the continuity of roof layers. Therefore, all shocks
recorded in the zones with velocity less than or equal to 6000 m/s occurred in years
2012–2016. In this period, the most shocks were noted in the zones where the max-
imum wave velocity was 5800 m/s, and slightly fewer in the zones with a velocity
of 5700 m/s. In low-speed zones with velocity of 4600–5500 m/s, the number of
shocks was much lower. The correlation coefficient, which amounted to 0.3, indi-
cated a weak direct proportional relationship between the number of shocks and the
maximum wave velocity.
Most seismic shocks occurred for the seismic anomaly greater than or equal to
10%, thus in places where the wave velocity was 10% higher than the average velocity
in a given area. The most shocks occurred for the anomaly equal to 13 and 11%.
Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Passive Seismic Tomography in … 437

The occurrence of shocks in zones with the significant negative anomaly of −9 and
−11% was considered unfavorable. These anomalies characterized the seismic wave
low-velocity zones, where seismic events and their effects should not occur. The
correlation coefficient was 0.53 and indicated a proportional relationship between
the number of shocks and the seismic anomaly. The only apparent relationship was
the occurrence of 95% of all shocks in zones with a positive seismic anomaly.
The relationship between the total energy of shocks and the maximum velocity
of the seismic wave in the high-velocity zones was ambiguous: neither growing nor
decreasing trend was noticed. The largest total energy of 1.0 × 109 J occurred at
the wave velocity of 6800 m/s. Huge energies of over 1 × 108 J were also observed
for the wave velocity range of 5600–6000 m/s; the smallest energy, however, for the
velocity of 6200 m/s. The correlation coefficient was 0.33, which indicated a weak
proportional relationship between the energy of shocks and the wave velocity in the
forecast zones.
The largest total energies of 1 × 108 J were observed for the seismic anomaly of
11, 14, and 10%; the smallest ones concerned the anomaly of −12%. It was noticed
that huge energy was associated with a positive anomaly. The notable exception,
however, was the anomaly of −5% for which the energy was of the order of 107 J.
Such a situation was a consequence of single shocks with huge energy. The correlation
coefficient reached 0.44 and indicated a proportional relationship between the energy
of shocks and the seismic anomaly in the predicted zones of elevated wave velocities.

6 Conclusions

It was found that the effectiveness of passive seismic tomography in predicting seis-
mic hazard was relatively satisfactory, although not sufficient. More than half of the
shocks were located within zones of predicted high seismic activities (high seismic
longitudinal wave velocities and huge positive seismic anomalies). The significant
number of shocks occurred in the vicinity of the calculated zones. Most of the rock
bursts occurred in the high-velocity and positive seismic anomaly areas. Unfortu-
nately, sometimes in the zones with the lowest negative seismic anomaly and wave
velocity a large number of tremors, huge total energy, and rock bursts were noticed.
The lowest annual efficiency of seismic hazard forecasting reached 22%, the highest
one amounted to 85% and, in most years, the accuracy of the forecast was greater
than 50%. Poor direct proportional relationship was established between the number
of shocks and the maximum wave velocity as well as between the energy of shocks
and the wave velocity in the predicted zones of elevated velocity. The direct propor-
tional dependence was established between the number of shocks and the seismic
anomaly as well as between the energy of shocks and the seismic anomaly in the
predicted zones of elevated velocities. In the zones of positive seismic anomaly, 95%
of shocks took place.
Forecasting of seismic hazard with passive seismic tomography is currently the
only way, though not totally perfect, to predict, to a certain extent, the location of
438 A. B. Gogolewska and D. Smolak

sites with a potentially high seismic hazard. The analysis of the state of the rock mass
and the seismic hazard should be deepened in relation to the parameters calculated
by the passive seismic tomography.

Acknowledgements The paper publication was supported by the statutory project no

0401/0125/17/21.

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