US Chamber of Commerce Article US Chamber of Commerce Article

7/20/2023: 7/20/2023:
This article discusses several economic
indicators and trends. Here's a breakdown of
the key points:
 Consumer sentiment: Consumer
sentiment rose in July to its highest
level since September 2021. The
decrease in inflation and the strong job
market contributed to this increase.
However, overall sentiment remains
low. It's worth noting that consumer
sentiment has not been a reliable
indicator of consumer spending since
the COVID-19 pandemic began.
 Inflation: The Consumer Price Index
(CPI) rose by 3% annually in June,
down from 4.1% in May and
significantly lower than the peak of
8.8% in June 2022. The decrease is
partly due to high inflation a year ago
and lower gas prices. However, core
prices, which exclude volatile
elements like food and energy, rose
4.8% annually and 0.2% from May to
June.
 Job market: June's jobs report showed
209,000 job gains, slightly below
expectations. The labor force has
grown by 133,000, surpassing pre-
pandemic levels. However, if the
participation rate matched that of
February 2020, there would be 1.9
million more workers in the labor
force. This suggests that the labor
market may cool down, which aligns
with the Federal Reserve's intention of
raising interest rates.
 Job openings: Job openings decreased
in May, but there is still a significant
Artikel ini membahas beberapa indikator
ekonomi dan tren. Berikut ini ringkasan poin-
poin pentingnya1:
 Sentimen konsumen: Sentimen
konsumen naik pada bulan Juli dan
mencapai level tertinggi sejak
September 2021. Penurunan inflasi
dan kekuatan pasar tenaga kerja yang
terus berlanjut berkontribusi pada
peningkatan ini. Namun, sentimen
secara keseluruhan tetap rendah. Perlu
dicatat bahwa sentimen konsumen
bukanlah indikator yang dapat
diandalkan dalam mengukur
pengeluaran konsumen sejak
dimulainya pandemi COVID-19.
 Inflasi: Indeks Harga Konsumen (CPI)
naik sebesar 3% secara tahunan pada
bulan Juni, turun dari 4,1% pada
bulan Mei dan jauh lebih rendah
dari puncak 8,8% pada Juni 2022.
Penurunan ini sebagian disebabkan
oleh tingginya inflasi setahun yang
lalu dan harga bahan bakar yang lebih
rendah. Namun, harga inti, yang
menghilangkan elemen yang volatil
seperti makanan dan energi, naik
sebesar 4,8% secara tahunan dan
0,2% dari Mei ke Juni.
 Pasar tenaga kerja: Laporan pekerjaan
bulan Juni menunjukkan
penambahan 209.000 lapangan
kerja, sedikit di bawah ekspektasi.
Pasar tenaga kerja telah tumbuh
sebesar 133.000, melampaui tingkat
partisipasi sebelum pandemi. Namun,
jika tingkat partisipasi sama seperti
pada bulan Februari 2020, akan ada
1,9 juta lebih banyak pekerja dalam
pasar tenaga kerja. Hal ini

1
1. Curtis Dubay, “Jobs, Housing, Consumer and Economy News That Matters,” Jobs, housing, consumer and
economy news that matters | U.S. Chamber of Commerce, July 19, 2023,
https://www.uschamber.com/economy/economic-viewpoints.
 worker shortage. There are 3.7 million menunjukkan bahwa pasar tenaga
more job openings than unemployed kerja mungkin akan melambat, sesuai
workers. Certain sectors experienced dengan niat Federal Reserve untuk
an increase in openings, while others menaikkan suku bunga.
saw a decline. Durable goods orders:  Lowongan pekerjaan: Jumlah
Orders for durable goods, which are lowongan pekerjaan turun pada bulan
long-lasting and more expensive Mei, tetapi masih terdapat kekurangan
items, have been increasing over the pekerja yang signifikan. Terdapat 3,7
past few months. This is seen as a juta lebih banyak lowongan
positive sign for the economy, as it pekerjaan daripada jumlah
indicates confidence among pengangguran. Beberapa sektor
consumers and businesses. mengalami peningkatan jumlah
lowongan pekerjaan, sementara yang
 Office occupancy: Many workers lain mengalami penurunan.
remain reluctant to return to the office,  Pesanan barang tahan lama: Pesanan
causing a disruption in the office space barang tahan lama, yang merupakan
market. Occupancy rates in large cities barang yang tahan lama dan lebih
are below 50% of pre-COVID levels, mahal, telah meningkat selama
affecting the value of office buildings. beberapa bulan terakhir. Hal ini
Lenders may face losses if building dianggap sebagai tanda positif bagi
owners abandon underperforming ekonomi, karena menunjukkan
properties. However, the downturn in kepercayaan konsumen dan bisnis.
the office space market is expected to  Okupansi kantor: Banyak pekerja
be temporary, with a rebound masih enggan untuk kembali ke
anticipated when workers return and kantor, menyebabkan gangguan dalam
interest rates decrease. pasar ruang kantor. Tingkat okupansi
di kota-kota besar berada di bawah
 Office conversions: Zoning, 50% dari tingkat sebelum COVID,
permitting, and environmental mempengaruhi nilai gedung
regulations pose challenges to perkantoran. Lembaga pemberi
converting empty office space into pinjaman mungkin menghadapi
residential or new commercial space. kerugian jika pemilik gedung
These barriers hinder businesses from meninggalkan properti yang kurang
modernizing office real estate. menguntungkan. Namun, penurunan
Converting office spaces into housing pasar ruang kantor ini diperkirakan
or other commercial uses is expected bersifat sementara, dengan pemulihan
to be a trend in the coming year. yang diantisipasi ketika pekerja
Reforms in zoning and permitting kembali dan suku bunga turun.
processes may facilitate the adaptation  Konversi kantor: Peraturan-peraturan
of office spaces to different uses. mengenai zonasi, izin, dan lingkungan
menghadirkan tantangan dalam
mengkonversi ruang kantor kosong
menjadi hunian atau ruang komersial
baru. Hambatan-hambatan ini
menghalangi bisnis untuk
memodernisasi real estat kantor.
 Konversi ruang kantor menjadi hunian
atau penggunaan komersial lainnya
diperkirakan menjadi tren dalam tahun
mendatang. Reformasi dalam proses
zonasi dan izin dapat memudahkan
adaptasi ruang kantor untuk
penggunaan yang berbeda.

US 2023 Unemployment Rate

3.75

3.7

3.65

3.6

3.55

3.5

3.45

3.4

3.35

3.3

3.25
January February March April May June

January:
The Nonfarm Payroll report for January 2023
indicates that total nonfarm payroll employment
rose by 517,000, a number higher than the average
monthly gain of 401,000 in 2022.
This increase was widespread across several
sectors. Notably, the leisure and hospitality
sector added 128,000 jobs, with significant
additions coming from food services and
drinking places (+99,000 jobs). There was
also a consistent upward trend in
accommodation (+15,000 jobs), though
employment in leisure and hospitality still
remains below its pre-pandemic February
2020 level.
Professional and business services
experienced an increase of 82,000 jobs,
largely due to growth in professional,
scientific, and technical services (+41,000).
This sector had an average job growth of
63,000 per month in 2022.
Government employment also increased by
74,000 in January, a rise attributed to the
return of university workers after a strike,
leading to a growth of 35,000 in state
government education.
Other sectors showing significant growth
include health care (+58,000 jobs), retail trade
(+30,000 jobs), construction (+25,000 jobs),
transportation and warehousing (+23,000
jobs), social assistance (+21,000 jobs), and
manufacturing (+19,000 jobs).
February:
1. The unemployment rate in February
increased by 0,2 percent and can be
influenced by a range of factors from:
Increased number of job losers and
those who completed temporary jobs:
The report states that the number of job
losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs increased by 223,000 in
February to 2.8 million. This increase in
the number of people who lost their jobs
or completed temporary assignments
could have contributed to the rise in the
unemployment rate.
2. Increase in short-term
unemployment: The data also shows
that the number of persons jobless for
less than 5 weeks increased by 343,000
to 2.3 million in February. This
suggests that a significant number of
people either lost their jobs or entered
the labor force but were unable to find
work quickly.
3. Job losses in certain sectors: While
total nonfarm payroll employment
increased overall, there were notable
job losses in certain sectors. The
information industry lost 25,000 jobs,
and transportation and warehousing
 lost 22,000 jobs in February. These
losses might have increased the overall
unemployment rate.
4. Decline in average workweek: The
average workweek for all employees
on private nonfarm payrolls edged
down by 0.1 hour in February.
Although a small decrease, it could
indicate that there was less work
available, potentially leading to job
losses or reduced hiring.
5. Revisions to prior data: The
employment gains for December and
January were revised down by a
combined 34,000 jobs. This means that
employment growth in those months
was not as strong as previously
thought, which could have resulted in a
higher unemployment rate in February.
March:
the unemployment rate in March 2023
decreased from February due to several
factors:
1. Employment Growth in Various
Sectors: The data showed that there
were employment increases in several
sectors, including leisure and
hospitality, government, professional
and business services, and health care.
This indicates that more jobs were
available and filled during this month,
contributing to the decrease in the
unemployment rate.
2. Continued Upward Trend in Labor
Force Participation Rate: The labor
force participation rate, which is the
percentage of the working-age
population that is either employed or
actively looking for work, continued to
trend up in March. This means more
people were engaged in the labor
market, either by being employed or
actively seeking employment.
3. Increase in Employment-Population
Ratio: The employment-population
ratio, which is the proportion of the
 working-age population that is
employed, edged up over the month to
60.4 percent. This ratio typically
increases when more people find
employment, further contributing to
the decrease in the unemployment rate.
4. Decrease in Unemployment Among
Hispanics: The data indicates that the
unemployment rate for Hispanics
decreased to 4.6 percent in March,
which contributed to the overall
decrease in the unemployment rate.
5. Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Increase: The total nonfarm payroll
employment increased by 236,000 in
March, meaning that more people were
employed in non-agricultural sectors.
This increase in employment
contributes to a decrease in the overall
unemployment rate.
April:
several key factors likely contributed to the
decrease in the unemployment rate in April:
1. Increase in Nonfarm Payroll
Employment: In April, total nonfarm
payroll employment increased by
253,000. This includes job gains in
several sectors like professional and
business services, health care, leisure
and hospitality, social assistance,
financial activities, government, and
mining, quarrying, and oil and gas
extraction. This uptick in employment
likely played a significant role in
decreasing the unemployment rate.
2. Reduction in Job Losers and People
Completing Temporary Jobs: The
number of job losers and persons who
completed temporary jobs decreased
by 307,000 in April. This means fewer
people entered unemployment, helping
to lower the overall unemployment
rate.
3. Decrease in Short-Term
Unemployment: The number of
persons jobless for less than 5 weeks
 decreased by 406,000. As shorter
durations of unemployment often
represent transitions between jobs, this
could suggest an improvement in job
stability, thereby lowering the
unemployment rate.
4. Stable Labor Force Participation
and Employment-Population Ratios:
The labor force participation rate and
the employment-population ratio were
both unchanged in April. While these
measures remain below their pre-
pandemic February 2020 levels, their
stability might indicate a steadying of
the labor market, preventing a
potential increase in the
unemployment rate.
May:
The increase in unemployment in May 2023
can be attributed to several factors based on
the Household and Establishment Survey
Data:
1. Increased number of job losers and
persons who completed temporary
jobs: This number increased by
318,000 to 3.0 million in May, which
indicates that many people were laid
off or completed short-term contracts
that were not immediately renewed.
2. Increased short-term unemployment:
The number of people jobless for less
than 5 weeks increased by 217,000 to
2.1 million. This reflects a situation
where individuals were out of work for
a relatively short period of time. This
could be due to layoffs, contract
completion, or job transitions.
3. Increased medium-term
unemployment: The number of
individuals jobless for 15 to 26 weeks
also increased by 179,000 to 858,000.
This suggests that some individuals are
finding it harder to find new
employment after being laid off or
ending a job.
However, the Employment Report also
indicates that there were some sectors
experiencing job growth, including
professional and business services,
government, health care, construction,
transportation and warehousing, and social
assistance. These job gains suggest that while
some sectors may be shedding jobs, others are
continuing to hire, which may provide
opportunities for those currently unemployed.
Additionally, average hourly earnings have
increased by 4.3 percent over the past 12
months, which may be a positive indicator for
wage growth and income.

1. June:
Employment by Sector: Nonfarm payroll
employment increased by 209,000 in June,
with job growth in government, health
care, social assistance, and construction.
Employment remained relatively stagnant
or slightly decreased in some sectors such
as professional and business services,
retail trade, transportation and
warehousing, and leisure and hospitality.
Growth or stagnation in these sectors
likely had a direct impact on the
unemployment rate.
2. Long-Term Unemployment: The
number of long-term unemployed
individuals, defined as those jobless
for 27 weeks or more, remained
largely unchanged. These individuals
made up 18.5 percent of the total
unemployed, which could reflect
ongoing challenges in matching these
job seekers with available positions.
3. Part-time Employment: The number
of people working part-time for
economic reasons, meaning they
would prefer to be working full-time,
increased by 452,000 in June. This
might indicate an under-utilization of
the workforce, which might not affect
the official unemployment rate, but
does impact the broader measure of
unemployment and underemployment.
4. Discouraged Workers: The number
 of discouraged workers, those who
wanted to work but were not actively
looking because they believed no jobs
were available for them, decreased by
112,000 in June. This decline might
reflect an improvement in job market
conditions, or at least in workers'
perceptions of the market.
5. Wage Growth: Average hourly
earnings rose by 12 cents, or 0.4
percent, to $33.58. Over the past 12
months, average hourly earnings have
increased by 4.4 percent. These
increases may have motivated more
people to join the labor force,
impacting the unemployment rate.
6. Employment Revisions: The change
in total nonfarm payroll employment
for April was revised down by 77,000,
and the change for May was revised
down by 33,000. The revised figures
mean that fewer jobs were added in
those months than initially reported,
which could affect the overall trend of
unemployment.
7. Labor Force Participation Rate:
This rate remained steady at 62.6
percent for the fourth consecutive
month. This stability suggests that the
same proportion of the population is
either working or actively looking for
work. The steady employment-
population ratio also indicates that
employment is growing at a similar
rate to the population.