Applied Statistics BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Dr.

Mahmoud Abd El-Raouf

In the real world we often make several trials, not just one, to achieve one or more successes. Let
us consider such cases of several trials.
Consider a random experiment with two possible outcomes such as (success or failure) and that
experiment is repeated a number (n), assuming that the number of successes (X) and the number of
failures (n-x) and the probability of success is (P) and the probability of failure (1-P). Here, identically
means that they all have the same p, and independently means that the value of one X does not in any
way affect the value of another. For example, the value of X2 does not affect the value of X3.
assume that all successful experiences come first, the probability that the number of successes X in
the n trials is

Now we know that there are nCx ways of getting x successes out of n trials.
𝒏 𝑛!
( ) = 𝐶𝑥𝑛 =
𝒙 𝑥! (𝑛 − 𝑥 )!

We also observe that each of these nCx possibilities has px(1-p)n-x probability of occurrence
corresponding to x successes and (n-x) failures. Therefore,
𝑛
𝑝(𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 , 𝜒 = 0,1,2, . . . . , 𝑛
𝑥
This equation is the Binomial probability formula. If we denote the probability of failure as q then
the Binomial probability formula is
𝑛
𝑝(𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 , 𝜒 = 0,1,2, . . . . , 𝑛
𝑥
The expected value or the mean, denoted by μ = np
The variance, denoted by σ2 = npq
Example 1:
Assuming the probability of male birth as ½,. Find the probability that a family of 5 children have
(i) at least one boy
(ii) at most 3 boys

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Applied Statistics BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Dr. Mahmoud Abd El-Raouf

Solution: Let the random variable X measures the number of boys out of 5 births. Clearly X is a
binomial random variable. So we apply the Binomial probability function to calculate the required
probabilities. 𝑋 ~ 𝐵 (5, ½)
𝑛
𝑝(𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 , 𝜒 = 0,1,2,3,4,5
𝑥
The required probabilities are
(i) P(X ≥ 1) = 1- P(X = 0) = 1- 1/32 = 31/32
(iii) P(X ≤ 3) = P(X = 0)+ P(X = 1)+ P(X = 2)+ P(X = 3) = 1/32 + 5/32 + 10/32 + 10/32 = 26/32

Self-Assessment Questions
1) Team 𝐴 has probability 2/3 of wining whenever it plays. If A plays four games, find the probability
that 𝐴 wins:
i) Exactly two games.
ii) More than half of the games.
iii) At least one game

2) A manufacturer of window frames knows from long experience that 5 percent of the production
will have some type of minor defect that will require an adjustment. What is the probability that in
a sample of 20 window frames:
i) none will need adjustment?
ii) at least one will not need adjustment?
iii) more than two will need adjustment?

3) A family has six children. Find the probability that there are:
i) three boys.
ii) fewer boys than girls.

4) The Egyptian Postal Service reports 95 percent of first class mail within the same city is delivered
within two days of the time of mailing. Six letters are randomly sent to different locations.
i) What is the probability that all six arrive within two days?
ii) What is the probability that exactly five arrive within two days?
iii) Find the mean number of letters that will arrive within two days.

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Applied Statistics BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Dr. Mahmoud Abd El-Raouf

iv) Compute the variance and standard deviation of the number that will arrive within two days.

5) It is reported that 16 percent of Egyptian households use a cell phone exclusively for their telephone
service. In a sample of eight households, find the probability that:
i) None use a cell phone as their exclusive service.
ii) At least one uses the cell exclusively.
iii) At least five use the cell phone.

6) A recent survey revealed 23% of students graduating with a major in accounting select public
accounting. Suppose we select a sample of 15 recent graduates.
i) What is the probability two select public accounting?
ii) How many graduates would you expect to select public accounting?