15 February 2024 Dawn editorials 3 editorials

1. staged show
THE country barely survived the trailer; now, it appears, a full five-year show has
been penned for PDM 2.0. There is little that can be considered new or improved, and
there are very few changes in the cast: the PML-N will once again take the lead under
Shehbaz Sharif, with the PPP content with reprising its supporting role.
Challenges faced by government of Pakistan
tackle economic despair, social fragmentation, deep political polarisation and having to please
allies while governing with a dubious mandate. Another big challenge will be to demonstrate
some stability to international lenders.

2. PTI’s options
options, and the PTI is no different, even though it faces circumstances decidedly
different from those of other political formations. While PTI-backed candidates in the
national and KP assemblies form the single biggest blocs, Imran Khan’s party is eager to
shed its ‘independent’ status and link up with other parties in parliament. Amongst other
reasons, the PTI wants to block defections, and to capture its share of women’s and
minorities’ reserved seats. Party leaders had said they were looking to ally with the MWM
and Jamaat-i-Islami in the national, KP and Punjab legislatures, but this will not be easy.
For one, JI’s Liaquat Baloch said on Wednesday that his party was not interested in
working with the PTI in KP. There is also the fact that after recounts, JI no longer has
representation in the KP Assembly. Moreover, regarding the partnership with the MWM,
though the latter is keen to work with Mr Khan, this can only be possible in the National
Assembly as the MWM has secured one seat in the Lower House. In Punjab, it has no
representation. In KP, the PTI has the numbers to form an independent bloc in the
House, and potentially form the government. Regarding its hopes of securing women and
minorities’ seats, this may not be possible as per the Elections Act.

3. Revitalizing the Indus

Biodiversity is all the different kinds of life you'll find in one area—the variety of animals,
plants, fungi, and even microorganisms like bacteria that make up our natural world. Each of
these species and organisms work together in ecosystems, like an intricate web, to maintain
balance and support life.
ECOLOGY: Ecology is the study of organisms and how they interact with the environment
around them. An ecologist studies the relationship between living things and their habitats.
Indus River
IN a much-needed development for the overexploited and climate change-ravaged Indus
river, the UN has included Pakistan’s Living Indus Initiative among its seven World
Restoration Flagship programmes. The LII was born in 2022 out of a comprehensive
consultation process, involving academia, experts, stakeholders, and provincial
governments. Spearheaded by then climate minister Sherry Rehman, the initiative was
ambitiously pegged as the country’s largest climate project, aimed at addressing the
multifaceted environmental challenges plaguing the ‘mother of the nation’. The river’s
ecological degradation has posed severe threats not only to biodiversity but also to the
livelihoods of the millions who depend on it. The Indus has tragically come to be known
as the second most polluted river in the world.
The LII, with its 25 priority interventions, targets a holistic restoration of the river basin. From nature-
based resilience agriculture to combating industrial effluent and promoting green infrastructure, the
initiative aims to revitalise the Indus, ensuring its sustainability for future generations. The UN’s
involvement brings invaluable technical and financial assistance to the LII. With the UN’s backing, the
LII is poised to restore over 30pc of the Indus basin by 2030. Central to the importance of the LII’s
mission is the rich biodiversity of the Indus basin. It is home to 195 mammal species, at least 668 bird
species, and over 150 fish species, including 22 endemic ones and the endangered Indus blind dolphin.
These species, many of which are unique to the region, are in urgent need of concerted efforts to protect
and restore their habitats. As we welcome the global recognition and support for the LII, it is imperative
to remember the stakes involved. The health of the Indus river is intrinsically linked to the prosperity of
Pakistan and the well-being of its people. It is one of our most critical natural resources and must be
jealously protected. Our survival depends on it.

16 February 2024 Dawn editorials 3 editorials

1) All the king’s men

Musharraf zia yahya ayub

KING’S parties(parties of army dictators) — political parties
believed to have been created and nurtured by unelected forces (by
army dictators) — have a long and chequered history in Pakistan.
Three king’s parties suffered the latter fate in last week’s elections.
1. The Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party, constructed by assembling PTI deserters, was being touted as
the next big thing, particularly in Punjab. Yet this prediction failed spectacularly as it
managed only two National Assembly seats, also putting in a dismal performance in Punjab.
Chastened by the rout, IPP supremo Jahangir Tareen retired from politics. One wonders if
the IPP will survive till the next election cycle.
2. The PTI-Parliamentarians did worse, winning no NA seats, while the Balochistan Awami Party,
created by the powers that be in 2018 and comprising mostly ex-PML-N members, was also
humbled in the polls.
3. As mentioned, cobbling together king’s parties is not a new phenomenon. For the longest
time, the name of the Muslim League — Pakistan’s grand old party — was used by military
 strongmen, including generals Ayub Khan and Zia, to form parties that could give their
projects a civilian face. Gen Musharraf patronised the PML-Q in 2002, carving it out of PML.
But whereas the party of the Sharifs has survived, the Q-League is not a potent political
force. Today, there are countless factions of the Muslim League, many of them the products
of military rule, or one-man parties. In other instances, electoral alliances were carved out
to keep popular parties in check, such as the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad in 1988.
Yet some parties have earned their democratic stripes, despite being products of
dictatorship.
 The PML-N is a prime example; Nawaz Sharif began his political journey in the Zia era, but today,
has a genuine following.
 The MQM is one example, as it has done the bidding of the establishment at various times, and
been rewarded with ‘heavy’ mandates in Karachi.
 The PPP also played ball with the powers, particularly in the turbulent 1990s.
These alliances with unelected forces — while serving the short-term interests of these parties — have
done long-term harm to Pakistani democracy.
The only way to stave off the continuous crises that afflict Pakistani politics is for powerful quarters to
stop creating and patronising political parties, and to let representatives genuinely elected by the people
chart the future course of this country.
2) Hiking gas prices:
BY increasing gas prices by up to 45pc to recover an additional Rs242bn from all
categories of consumers, the caretaker government has met another goal of the $3bn IMF
programme. The cabinet approved the price hike recommended by the ECC on Thursday
— the deadline for the implementation of the IMF condition. The significant part of the
decision is the approval of uniform gas rates for the cash-rich fertiliser companies,
largely revoking massive subsidies being pocketed by them for decades. However, the
powerful textile industry again got away with a much smaller raise than proposed by the
energy minister for already hugely subsidised captive power — despite the condition to
make gas supplies for inefficient captive power plants expensive in order to divert the
resource to cheaper RLNG power plants for generation. Apparently, the industry
minister, a former Aptma chairman, got his way on the pretext that higher captive power
gas prices would affect textile exports.
While the increase in fuel prices has been made to ensure the timely release of the last tranche of $1.2bn
under the Stand-by Arrangement facility ending in April, it was also crucial for the gas sector’s stability.
The new government taking over soon will be constrained to negotiate another longer, bigger IMF
bailout to prevent the nation’s finances from collapsing and avert a potential sovereign default. It was
also crucial to improve the cash flow of the two public gas firms and slow down the increase in the
circular debt in the gas sector, as well as discourage the wasteful use of the fuel. Higher gas prices would
not only put more burden on the common man reeling under the rising cost of living, it will also
potentially raise food and other prices further, and might delay monetary easing. The State Bank, which
has maintained its key policy rate at 22pc, last month revised up its inflation projections for the fiscal
year to 23-25pc from earlier estimates of 20-22pc. In its last monetary policy statement, it said that the
impact of the tight monetary stance to bring down inflation was “diluted by sizeable adjustments in
administered energy prices ... The large adjustments have significantly impacted the inflation outturns
and its near-term outlook”. Unless the authorities undertake serious reforms to address the underlying
structural issues in the energy sector to avoid such periodic shocks, price stability will remain elusive.
3) Humane strategy:
DOG culling has ended in Sindh, the high court was recently told, marking a shift towards a more
humane and scientifically sound method of rabies control and stray dog population management.
Under the Rabies Control Programme, some 125,000 strays will be neutered/spayed and vaccinated
by June 2025. This strategy has been endorsed by recent studies and has been successfully
implemented in several countries. A notable example within Pakistan is the Indus Hospital’s Rabies
Free Pakistan initiative, which dramatically reduced dog attacks in a small fishing village through
vaccination and sterilisation. The RCP’s ambitious goals, including the establishment of rabies
vaccination centres across 20 districts, are commendable. However, the success of such
programmes hinges on sustained funding, community engagement, and transparent progress
monitoring. As dog bites and rabies cases continue to pose a significant health risk, the RCP’s efforts
must translate into tangible results on the ground. The high court’s directives for the release of
funds, and to launch a dedicated helpline and mobile applications to report dog bites are steps in
the right direction, fostering a proactive community response.
Dog culling has never been the answer. It is a brutal, short-sighted solution that fails to address
the root causes of disease transmission and overpopulation, such as lack of sterilisation,
vaccination, and responsible pet ownership. It merely offers a temporary dip in stray dog
population. New dogs quickly fill the void left by those culled, perpetuating the cycle of
overpopulation and rabies risk. The evidence is clear: vaccination and sterilisation programmes
not only save lives but also promote coexistence between humans and animals. The RCP’s
approach, emphasising public education, jabs, and respect for animal life promises not only to
safeguard human health but also to uphold ethical and sustainable public health and animal
welfare practices. As Sindh adopts humane strategies to manage the challenge, other provinces
should follow suit.

17 February 2024 Dawn editorials 2 editorials

1. No surprises:
TO some, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rahman triggered a political
earthquake late Thursday when, during a television interview, he
‘revealed’ that former army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and spy
chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed had organised and orchestrated the
2022 vote of no-confidence that resulted in Imran Khan’s ouster.
A day later, he ‘corrected’ himself in a different interview, saying he had taken
the ex-spy chief’s name by mistake, and that it was his successor that he had,
in fact, been referring to.
“They were in contact with all political parties regarding the no-confidence
motion, and they told us the way of going about it,” he had initially said. The
PDM parties went along with the plan, but they were merely “rubber-
stamping” the move, the JUI-F chief claimed.
The maulana’s ‘confession’ ended up causing quite a stir on social media, with
most PTI sympathisers describing it as ‘confirmation’ of their party’s long-
held stance on the cipher ‘conspiracy’, under which they believe that army
generals acted to topple the PTI’s elected government in collusion with/ or on
the instructions of officials from the Biden administration.
On the other hand, the maulana’s detractors were quick to dismiss him, with
many speculating that he had only made a statement to secure a few positions
in the next government for himself or one of his family members.
From the ouster of Nawaz Sharif in 2017, to the pre-poll rigging before the
July 2018 elections to keep him out; the post-poll creation of the PTI
government with the help of independents; Gen Bajwa’s service extension; the
subjugation of the media; and, finally, the ouster of Imran Khan’s government
— Gen Bajwa remained active throughout, supported in his political
adventures for most of that period by Gen Hameed, who served first as DGC
and then as DG ISI.
2. No surprises:
MOODY’S recent assessment on Pakistan’s inconclusive election outcome resulting in a
hung parliament, as well as the ensuing hectic politicking for the formation of a new
coalition government, is indicative of investors’ anxiety over political uncertainty. The
split public mandate followed by claims of election fraud, which potentially could lead to
more political instability, has drawn ‘credit negativity’ from Moody’s analysts. And, given
the defiant mood of a few major parties, the rating agency’s opinion does not come as a
surprise. “While negotiations between parties to form a coalition government are
currently underway,” it warns, “prolonged delays will raise political and policy
uncertainties at a time when Pakistan faces significant macroeconomic challenges,
particularly its very weak external and liquidity position.” Moreover, the agency argues,
the coalition set-up might not be politically strong or united, making consensus difficult
on pursuing tough but necessary reforms. Moody’s assessment of the post-poll situation
is in line with the views of most Pakistani commentators who have repeatedly cautioned
in recent weeks that flawed polls could undermine the legitimacy of the new government,
intensify political and economic uncertainties, and affect the rulers’ ability to take tough
decisions and implement the reforms needed to stabilise and boost the fragile economy.

20 February 2024 Dawn editorials 3 editorials

1) BRICS candidacy:
IN an age beset by geopolitical dissonance, states must establish
and nurture foreign relationships that can help them withstand the
headwinds shaking the international order.
This should include forming strong ties with regional states and supporting
multinational groupings that integrate economies and lessen the chances of
conflict. In this respect, Pakistan has already joined the China-led Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation, while it applied last year(2022) to become a part of
the Russia-led BRICS grouping.
chairman of the Senate Standing Committee on Defence Mushahid Husain,
while on a visit to Moscow, observed that Pakistan could join BRICS with the
help of “Russian cooperation” as Russia holds the current presidency of the
grouping. In view of its considerable benefit, a BRICS membership should be a
foreign policy priority for the next government.
However, there is one major obstacle: India is a founder member of BRICS,
and considering its testy ties with Pakistan, one can assume that Delhi will
create hurdles for this country’s candidacy.
However, as Senator Mushahid observed, we need to actively engage Russia to
support our application, while China’s cooperation should also be sought.
Russia and China are also BRICS founder members, so India would find it
harder to resist Pakistan’s membership if Beijing and Moscow actively backed
it.
Moreover, the UAE and Iran, which recently joined BRICS and with whom
Pakistan has normal ties, should also be asked to endorse our candidacy. India
cannot be allowed to isolate Pakistan internationally, and our best diplomatic
hands must be tasked with making the case in important capitals.
Meanwhile, our American and European friends may raise their eyebrows at
Pakistan’s candidacy. But in the current state of geopolitics, the Western bloc views
anything Moscow and Beijing do with suspicion. For Pakistan, it does not have to be
a zero-sum game; it can try to maintain cordial ties with both de facto blocs — the
West and China-/Russia-led groupings.
But for Pakistan to successfully join BRICS or compete in other arenas
internationally, the political instability at home needs to be addressed. Moscow,
Beijing and other key BRICS members should consider inviting Pakistan to join at the
summit in Russia later this year, or should at least announce a concrete roadmap for
Pakistan’s candidacy. Pakistan has much to gain economically and diplomatically by
joining such Global South forums.
2) Open the books:
THE knocking on its doors keeps growing louder. How long can the
ECP ignore it? Over the weekend, Pakistan’s most prominent
elections monitoring body as well as its top human rights
watchdog have added their voices to calls for an audit of election
results.
In Pakistan, it is almost customary for election candidates to refuse to
acknowledge their defeat. Except a few, most are generally quick to cast
aspersions and question the integrity of any election which does not go in their
favour.

This time, however, certain irregularities have been so widespread that even
otherwise impartial observers are joining the chorus of voices demanding a
recount and investigation into the post-poll results compilation process.

For example, there are ample witnesses to the fact that both election laws and
the rules governing how vote counting and compilation is supposed to be done
were not adhered to by many returning officers on election day.

Many independent observers, candidates and accredited media personnel

reported being excluded or evicted from the Form 47 compilation process
which was completed at ROs’ offices, indicating that the most important check
on the process was bypassed without any convincing explanation being given.

Compiled behind closed doors, many results later issued by ROs did not
match the consolidated results from Form 45s issued to different candidates’
polling agents. Fortunately, there is an extensive paper trail for each
constituency, which can still be used to verify them.

3) Pneumonia menace
PANIC is on the rise as the alarming surge in pneumonia cases has
created an explosion of headlines — sans information — about
prevention and cure. The menacing respiratory affliction has taken
an ugly turn: this paper reported yesterday that a shocking 622
cases had come to light over 24 hours in Punjab and 13 more
minors had died of the virus. Last month, some 50pc samples from
ailing children tested positive for viral pneumonia, with more than
18,000 registered patients in eastern Punjab. Since Jan 1, the death
toll in the province is approximately 400, presenting damning
evidence of incompetence on the part of the Punjab caretaker
government and health authorities, which preferred cosmetic
measures — extended school vacations, shorter classes and face
masks — to comprehensive, inoculation-driven initiatives. Even
more disturbing is the fact that pneumonia rages on despite the
caretaker set-up’s projects for enhancement of emergency and
other measures in Lahore’s government teaching institutes, which
are worth Rs90bn. The Young Doctors Association, Punjab, too,
has drawn attention to the pneumonia fatalities and warned of
unavailability of medicines for the poor.

While Unicef states that nearly half of childhood deaths by

pneumonia are linked to air pollution, it has also declared South Asia
home to the highest number of pneumonia cases among children. Therefore,
officialdom should know that we are losing a generation. The time to blame
frigid climate and smog is up. It has to hit the ground running with large-scale
immunisation campaigns for children and the elderly, distribute cost-free
masks, medicines and sanitisers, ensure adequate nutrition and potable water,
and advocate hygiene and ventilation in low-income areas. Moreover,
awareness about the disease and precautions against its spread in schools and
among those with comorbidities is paramount. In addition, the phenomenon
of ‘walking pneumonia’ should be studied, so that early detection and
treatment can prove successful in averting potentially fatal outcomes. We
cannot afford higher statistics.

21 February 2024 Dawn editorials 3 editorials

1. Fitch’s concerns:
AS political parties scramble to form a potentially weak coalition at
the centre, the uncertainty unleashed by the inconclusive outcome
of the Feb 8 polls is giving Pakistan’s creditors and investors the
jitters.
 larger bailout with the IMF to succeed the ongoing interim package
ending soon, and adhere to tougher policy commitments under it.
 This is in spite of a strong political consensus within the country on the
need for yet another IMF programme and wide structural reforms
considered critical for Pakistan’s longer-term economic trajectory. The
deal is also crucial for Pakistan to secure financing flows from other
multilateral, bilateral and commercial creditors.
 These concerns were recently voiced by Moody’s in its post-poll
comments on Pakistan’s macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Now Fitch
Ratings has expressed its disquiet over the volatile political conditions
obtaining in the country in the absence of a clear public mandate:
“Finalising a new IMF deal is likely to be challenging.”
 As underscored by Fitch, extended negotiation or failure to secure a
commitment would increase external liquidity stress and raise the
possibility of default. If that happens the blame would rest with those who
scuppered the deal.
2. Silencing public:
 THE stench of desperation hangs heavy over Islamabad. The powerful have had a lot
of trouble lately keeping the public under their thumb. Short of ideas, they
have decided to block Pakistan’s access to X (formerly Twitter), one of the most
popular digital mediums for self-expression.
 The authorities are seemingly so afraid of the public setting the narrative
agenda that they have decided to simply pull the plug. Such repressive
actions are a shame in this day and age: millions of opinion-makers and
citizens around the world converge virtually each day on the platform to
exchange important news and views — why can Pakistanis not be among
them?
 There has been no word from the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority
or the IT ministry, which would previously issue at least a mealy-mouthed
explanation when denying the citizenry access to mainstream internet
services.
 One marvels at the hypocrisy of some of our caretaker ministers, who have
ostensibly been using VPN services to continue posting on X
 As for the PTA, the less said the better. In suspending mobile phone
services without any prior warning throughout election day and well after,
it had already wreaked immeasurable damage on Pakistan this month.
 Many citizens were left unable to exercise their constitutional rights due to
the communications blackout, which also contributed towards worsening
the political instability by providing a convenient cover for the alleged
irregularities that occurred later that night. And yet, the
authority refuses to learn. Acting as if it is unaccountable, it is now
curtailing citizens’ digital rights without even bothering to come up with a
justification.
3. Zoo zealotry:
IN a bizarre twist of faith and fur, the Indian right-wing Hindu nationalist group, Vishwa
Hindu Parishad, has petitioned a Kolkata court over, of all things, the names of two lions
residing in a West Bengal zoo. The pair in question, a lion named Akbar and a lioness
named Sita, have unwittingly become the protagonists in a tale that could only be
concocted in present-day India. The VHP’s contention: the pairing of lions with these
names is “irrational”, “illogical”, and “tantamount to blasphemy”. And while their
request to respect their deities’ names is perfectly reasonable, the justification that was
given by a VHP leader is absurd: “Sita cannot stay with the Mughal emperor Akbar.” This
isn’t the first time such silliness has reared its head. Take, for instance, the multiple times
pigeons have been ‘arrested’ and probed after flying over from Pakistan or China into
India, accused of espionage. Most recently, a ‘spy’ pigeon, said to be from China, was
detained for eight months while, presumably, investigators combed through its feathers
in search of something incriminating.

The pattern is unmistakable: a penchant for seeing slights where none exist, and a readiness to leap into
the fray, legal briefs at the ready, over perceived insults to religion or threats to national security. While
it is easy to dismiss the VHP’s legal battle as another quixotic quest for religious purity, it is emblematic
of a broader struggle over identity, history, and the very soul of India. It brings to mind a 1977
Bollywood film, called Amar Akbar Anthony, about three brothers separated in childhood and raised in
different faiths. Amar grew up a Hindu; Akbar, a Muslim; and Anthony, a Christian. They united as
adults, and their adventures together were a powerful allegory in Indian pluralism. It is likely that if that
film were to be made today, a right-wing group would challenge it in court. And that is a tragedy for
modern India.

23 February 2024 Dawn editorials editorials

1) Tackling debt:
MANY would tend to describe a new report warning that the country is headed for
“inevitable default”, which will start a “spiral”, as alarmist. But the advisory firm
Tabadlab’s analysis of Pakistan’s mounting debt load as a “raging fire” rightly
underscores the debt’s unsustainable trajectory. The consequences of this debt are
already showing in diminished economic growth and restricted public spending on
essential public services and development projects. The failure of successive governments
to undertake reforms to tame the elevated budget deficit by boosting revenues and cutting
wasteful spending has now pushed the country into a deep debt trap, requiring the
authorities to borrow more to fill the financing gap and pay off existing loans. No wonder,
according to the study, Pakistan’s external debt has nearly doubled to $124.6bn and its
domestic debt increased six-fold in nominal terms to $146.4bn since 2011, with total
external and domestic loans and liabilities rising from $145.7bn to $271bn. That means
per capita (Per capita income is a measure of the amount of money earned per person in a nation or
geographic region.) debt has increased 36pc from $823 to $1,123, while per capita GDP
declined 6pc from $1,295 to $1,224 in the same time frame. The report shows that
Pakistan’s borrowing and spending habits are unsustainable as debt accumulation has
been overwhelmingly used to continue to foster a consumption-focused, import-addicted
economy, without investment in productive sectors or industry. Hence, interest payments
as a share of GDP are at an all-time high.
If the government wants to reduce the debt burden to create fiscal space for demands pertaining to
social protection, health, education, and climate-related disasters and adaptation strategies, it must
undertake reforms to address Pakistan’s entrenched challenges. With a new government set to take the
reins of a moribund economy, an effective, sustainable management of the fiscal and current deficits
must top the reforms agenda to gradually reduce the financing gap and borrowing needs. That goal
cannot be achieved without undertaking tax reforms to broaden the net and boost tax-to-GDP ratio to at
least 15-20pc in the next few years, cutting wasteful spending, and privatising loss-making public-sector
businesses. Also, the new set-up is expected to drastically improve the business environment in order to
attract FDI to export industries. The next government’s resolve to implement reforms to manage the
massive debt and stabilise the economy will soon be tested when it starts discussions with the IMF for
another loan.

2) Imprisoned abroad:
THE issue of Pakistani prisoners imprisoned in foreign jails crops up regularly,
particularly during parliamentary debates, as lawmakers discuss ways to assist these
unfortunate individuals. As highlighted during the Senate Standing Committee on
Human Rights’ meeting recently, over 23,000 Pakistanis are imprisoned abroad. While it
is difficult to defend those who knowingly commit crimes on foreign soil, many people are
victims of circumstance, or have to serve lengthy jail terms for petty offences due to their
lack of knowledge of alien legal systems. Most Pakistani inmates abroad are detained in
Saudi and Emirati jails, while a considerable number are prisoners in Greece, India and
other states. The crimes these men and women are convicted of vary by region. For
example, of the thousands of prisoners doing time in the Gulf states, most have been
convicted on drug charges. Meanwhile, those in Greek prisons include migrants accused
of immigration-related and illegal entry offences. In India, on the other hand, Pakistanis
are doing time for illegal stay and inadvertently crossing the frontier; their ranks include
fishermen who mistakenly cross the maritime boundary. As Justice Project Pakistan, an
advocacy group, points out, in many cases Pakistanis abroad do not have access to due
process, and are not provided ‘impartial’ translators and counsel.
Those travelling abroad must be informed by the state that drug trafficking and illegal migration can
entail harsh penalties, including capital punishment and lengthy jail terms. Moreover, those imprisoned
or being tried abroad need to be given full consular access, and represented by lawyers who are fully
conversant with local laws. In this regard, the Uniform Consular Protection Policy should be
implemented without delay, while agreements need to be inked with more states so that convicts can
complete their sentences in Pakistan. Particular attention should be given to Pakistani prisoners in
India, as due to frayed bilateral ties, Pakistanis in that country are at the mercy of a hostile legal system.

24 February 2024 Dawn editorials editorials

1. Course correction
THE PTI emerged from the Feb 8 elections as Pakistan’s largest political party. It should
start acting like one.
The party founder’s decision to write to the IMF and urge it to call for an independent audit of the
election results before it considers extending more loans was unbecoming and should have been
reconsidered. There was no need for the PTI to engage in such tactics to demonstrate its seriousness
about recovering its allegedly stolen mandate.
2. The plot thickens
THE recent explosive allegations by Liaquat Ali Chattha, the former commissioner of
Rawalpindi, have thrust the nation into a state of heightened scepticism with regard to
the already disputed general elections.

Mr Chattha’s initial public ‘confession’ claiming involvement in poll rigging and implicating — without
proof — the chief election commissioner and chief justice of Pakistan sent shockwaves across the
country. A seemingly contrite Mr Chattha had claimed in remarks to reporters that candidates that were
“losing” the elections “were made to win”.

However, the plot has since thickened with the emergence of a letter addressed to the ECP, supposedly
sent by Mr Chattha, in which he recants his allegations. The former official, who was approaching
retirement, says he was enticed by an unnamed absconding PTI leader into levelling the allegations after
he was promised a “lucrative position” if he aided the PTI’s narrative that the polls were rigged.
This turn of events raises more questions than it answers, leaving the public in a bog of doubt. The
ambiguity of this letter’s origin, coupled with Mr Chattha’s disappearance since his initial accusation,
has only intensified the mystery.

Given the gravity of the accusations, both initial and recanted, it is imperative that an investigation be
launched immediately. If his initial confession was fabricated, as his letter purports, it is essential the
characters behind such manipulation be uncovered and punished.

Conversely, if his rigging allegations hold any shred of truth, it is equally crucial that those claims be
probed. Commissioners, by virtue of their role, wield significant administrative influence. Such power
can easily be misused. It is, therefore, paramount that not only Mr Chattha’s claims but also his tenure
in office are scrutinised, especially given the corruption charges against him.

The Punjab government has initiated a probe into the development schemes the ex-commissioner
approved, which is a start. However, it must be ensured this probe is not simply punitive in nature. It is
now up to the authorities to see the entire matter through with a swift and transparent investigation.
This is crucial to uphold the integrity of the electoral process and restore public confidence in the state’s
institutions. Anything short of this would not only serve as a betrayal of the public’s trust but also
jeopardise Pakistan’s democratic foundations.

3. Trigger-happy police:
ARE the citizens of Karachi becoming fair game again? There were some grisly signs of a
rapid return to living dangerously for its people this week: six offenders were shot dead in
four ‘encounters’, a young boy took a fatal bullet from the police in a separate incident,
and robbers rampaged through parts of Shah Faisal Colony, killing a middle-aged man.
On Thursday, the City Council reverberated with worry about the worsening law and
order situation in the metropolis, and a proposal to constitute a committee to tackle the
mounting street crime was approved by the mayor. Karachi’s turbulent history, riddled
with ‘encounter specialists’ — no less than murderers in uniform — and criminals of all
stripes should tell us that a rise in violence is symptomatic of a city’s descent into
sociopolitical decay.

26 February 2024 Dawn editorials editorials

BACKGROUND :
 Six-Day War, or Arab-Israeli War of 1967, War between Israel and the Arab
countries of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. Palestinian guerrilla attacks on Israel from
bases in Syria led to increased hostility between the two countries.
 Organization of Islamic Cooperation 1969: The Organisation of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) is the second largest organization after the United
Nations with a membership of 57 states spread over four continents. The
Organization is the collective voice of the Muslim world. It endeavors to
safeguard and protect the interests of the Muslim world in the spirit of
promoting international peace and harmony among various people of the
world. Over the last 40 years, the membership has grown from its
founding members of 30 to 57 states. he present Charter of the OIC was
adopted by the Eleventh Islamic Summit held in Dakar on 13-14 March
2008 to become the pillar of the OIC future Islamic action in line with the
requirements of the 21st century. The Organization has the singular honor
to galvanize the Ummah into a unified body and have actively represented
the Muslims by espousing all causes close to the hearts of over 1.5 billion
Muslims of the world. The Member States of the OIC face many challenges in
the 21st century and to address those challenges, the Third Extraordinary
Session of the Islamic Summit held in Makkah in December 2005, laid down the
blue print called the Ten-Year Program of Action. It successfully concluded with
the close of 2015. A successor programme for the next decade (2016-2025) has
since then been adopted. The new programme OIC-2025 is anchored in the
provisions of the OIC Charter and focuses on 18 priority areas with 107 goals.
 The priority areas include issues of Peace and Security, Palestine and Al-Quds,
Poverty Alleviation, Counter-terrorism, Investment and Finance, Food Security,
Science and Technology, Climate Change and Sustainability, Moderation,
Culture and Interfaith Harmony, Empowerment of Women, Joint Islamic
Humanitarian Action, Human Rights and Good Governance, among others.
 On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel’s
forces in the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights.
 2nd Session of The Islamic Summit Conference
Lahore, Islamic Republic of Pakistan (22 - 24 February 1974)
 https://www.arabnews.com/vision-muslim-corridor

1. Spirit of ’74
FOR three days in 1974, starting Feb 22, Lahore witnessed an epochal meeting of 38
Muslim nations as it hosted the Second Islamic Summit Conference. Those were heady
days, coming only a few months after the October 1973 war, when the Arabs had reversed
some of the ignominious losses of the 1967 conflict. Moreover, the Arabs had flaunted
their ‘oil weapon’, targeted at all states that openly supported Israel, and perhaps for the
first time in the postcolonial period, there was a feeling that the world of Islam had
agency of its own.
Giants of the Muslim world attended the moot. This included the summit’s host and architect Zulfikar
Ali Bhutto along with other leaders, including Anwar Sadat of Egypt, Muammar Qadhafi of Libya, Faisal
of Saudi Arabia and Palestinian icon Yasser Arafat. The credit for the success of the 1974 summit goes to
Bhutto. Though he may have had many shortcomings, Bhutto — a democratically elected leader — was a
committed internationalist and had the vision to make Pakistan a leader in the Muslim world. Our
reputation today, both within the Muslim world and in the larger international community, is far from
the dizzying heights reached in 1974. One lesson that can be drawn is that a leader elected by the people
and aware of their aspirations is alone qualified to guide the nation on the world stage. Another of the
summit’s successes was Pakistan’s recognition of Bangladesh, which closed the blood-stained chapter of
the separation of East Pakistan, as Mujibur Rahman embraced Bhutto in Lahore.
Yet, 50 years after that momentous meeting, many of the issues that plagued the Muslim world remain.
For example, Palestine’s children still cry out for an end to their slaughter. Moreover, the people of
Kashmir remain unable to choose their own destiny, thanks to Indian intransigence. Elsewhere, the
stateless Rohingya live in foetid refugee camps, victims of Myanmar’s ruling junta, while hundreds of
millions of other Muslims the world over face disease, illiteracy and hunger, even as some of their richer
brothers in faith live lives of unimaginable luxury. Sadly, in far too many Muslim states, strongmen are
disconnected from the desires of their people. Perhaps the spirit of ’74 needs to be channelled to guide
the Muslim world through these rough waters. Particularly, through unity and pursuing a minimum
common agenda, the community of Muslim states can attempt to address multiple problems, and
pursue the noble goals enunciated at the Lahore Summit. Education, with particular focus on science
and technology, is required to improve the lot of Muslim populations. Furthermore, democracy within
the Muslim world — developed through organic processes and not ‘imported’ from others — is needed to
bring qualitative improvements to the lives of nearly 2bn people.

27 February 2024 Dawn editorials editorials

1) New funds:
Multilateral creditors: These creditors are multilateral institutions such as the
IMF and the World Bank, as well as other multilateral development banks.
Bilateral creditors: are official agencies that make loans on behalf of one
government to another government e.g Pakistan and India
commercial creditors: Bank within a country from which country take loan.
A lender: is an individual, a group, or a financial institution that lends funds with the
expectation that the funds will be repaid.
PAKISTAN plans to seek a new loan of $6bn from the IMF under its Extended Fund
Facility for a period of three years, Bloomberg reported last week, citing unnamed
officials. Discussions with the lender on the new facility are expected to begin in
March or April, following the completion of the last review of the ongoing nine-
month $3bn Stand-by Arrangement. The latter arrangement with the IMF, which is
due to end soon, had helped the country avert default last summer. However,
Pakistan’s other creditors — multilateral, bilateral, and commercial included —
have thus far been reluctant to help the nation shore up its shrinking foreign
exchange reserves and improve its external sector outlook, in spite of the present
IMF programme. Their reluctance is evident from the fact that only $6.3bn in
foreign loans, or 35.75pc of the annual budgeted target of $17.6bn, in the first
seven months of the present fiscal year to January, has materialised. But it was not
unexpected as foreign creditors are waiting for a larger and longer arrangement
between Islamabad and the Fund for medium- to long-term reform policy clarity
under the elected government. Two of the three top global rating agencies,
Moody’s and Fitch, recently cautioned that a larger IMF package is crucial to
Pakistan’s longer-term economic stability and to unlock other foreign inflows to
cover the country’s annual financing gap of $22-25bn for some years.
The government was compelled to agree to a slew of measures to cut public
expenditure, impose additional taxes on corporates and salaried individuals, hike
borrowing costs, increase energy rates, etc, to meet IMF goals under the ongoing
loan. Coupled with the unannounced import control to curb the dollar outflow, these
measures have caused the economy to contract and kept price inflation up, making
matters even more difficult for struggling low-middle-income households.
2) Tragedy asserted:
IN a distressing episode that recently unfolded in Lahore’s Ichra Bazaar, a young woman
found herself the focal point of a dangerous accusation.
She was dressed, to her misfortune, in attire featuring Arabic calligraphy. It was gravely misinterpreted
by some as religious verses and the incident nearly escalated into deadly violence — an all-too-familiar
occurrence in Pakistan. It was only through the timely efforts of the Punjab police and the sanity
demonstrated by some traders who debunked the allegations that a tragedy was averted.
For instance, at least 85 people are reported to have been murdered in Pakistan on blasphemy
allegations since 1990.

01 march 2024 Dawn editorials editorials

1. Karachi diary:
it is the hub of commercial and business activity in the country — and for a city this size,
Karachi’s infrastructure is poor.
The road network is quite broken, the transport infrastructure is not good or adequate, the water supply
is poor, and water drainage is bad. A spell of rainfall of six to eight millimetres was enough to cause
major hurdles for transportation for a good 24 hours and some parts of the city were flooded.
Karachi is definitely more diverse in ethnic, religious and linguistic terms than Lahore. The sense of
security in most people is still fragile and memories of a different Karachi are not forgotten. Mobile
snatching and mugging has definitely been internalised by the people here.There is definitely more
philanthropy, and institutionalised philanthropy in Karachi than in Lahore or Islamabad. On every
street you see boards for trusts and foundations doing something or the other in areas of education,
health, food and/ or social welfare.
2. Rethinking peace:
IN the discourse surrounding the Palestine-Israel conflict, especially within international
arenas, the advocacy for a two-state solution stands out as the principal strategy for
equitably resolving the Israeli occupation.
‫ خاص طور پر بین االقوامی میدانوں‬،‫فلسطین اسرائیل تنازعہ سے متعلق گفتگو میں‬
‫ دو ریاستی حل کی وکالت اسرائیلی قبضے کو مساوی طور پر حل کرنے‬،‫میں‬
‫کے لیے بنیادی حکمت عملی کے طور پر سامنے آتی ہے۔‬
This viewpoint is supported by a broad spectrum of governments, ranging from the Palestinian
Authority to numerous Muslim countries, including Pakistan.
The origins of this concept trace back to November 1947, when UN General Assembly Resolution 181
proposed the partition of the territory, allocating approximately 55 per cent to the Zionist movement,
comprised mainly of European immigrants. This led to the declaration of the state of Israel in 1948
within territories historically recognised as Palestine, igniting a war that allowed the Zionists to expand
their control to nearly 78pc of the land.
The narrative further complicates with the events of the 1967 war, during which Israel seized the
remaining territories previously held by Jordan and Egypt. The contemporary discourse focuses on these
territories, constituting 22pc of historical Palestine, suggesting their consolidation into a Palestinian
state divided into two regions: the West Bank and Gaza, with Israel situated between them.
The fragmented nature of the proposed Palestinian state, combined with the historical context of
territorial conquest and occupation, suggests that such a solution might not align with the aspirations or
best interests of the Palestinian people. Instead, it could perpetuate the conflict rather than resolve it,
calling into question the effectiveness of the two-state solution as a path to lasting peace in the region.
Solution:

In our pursuit of peace, a fundamental principle must prevail: the inevitability of two communities living
in harmony, side by side, rather than merely alongside each other. This necessitates a departure from
the politics of division, where animosity towards differences shapes the framework for peace
negotiations.

We must adopt a new perspective, one that views diversity not as a source of conflict but as an attribute
to be celebrated. The persistence of this conflict only compounds the challenge of achieving peace. True
peace cannot be attained through the segregation of communities or the division of territories. Instead,
it requires an embrace and celebration of our differences, which, in turn, can heal the divisions and
bring communities together.

Many Palestinians have shifted their perspective on the two-state solution, moving away from viewing it
as a viable resolution to their situation. Instead, there’s a growing demand for rights within the state of
Israel itself, attracted by its highly advanced healthcare system, sophisticated education opportunities,
and the potential for a better quality of life. This emerging movement, which seeks integration and equal
rights within Israel, poses a challenge to the foundational Zionist ideology of a Jewish state, and is thus
seen by Israel as an existential threat.
Despite the potential of this approach to pave a new path towards peace, it has yet to be embraced by
any of Palestine’s political parties as a strategic platform or included in their manifestos. While
individual politicians across the spectrum might support the idea in principle, there’s a noticeable
absence of collective political will to advocate for it as a party policy.
This reluctance reflects a broader reluctance to engage with what Palestinian youth envision for their
future: a society not segregated by differences but united in diversity. The lack of political
acknowledgment and action towards this vision underscores a significant gap in addressing the
aspirations and rights of Palestinian youth in the ongoing dialogue about peace and reconciliation in the
region.
In debates at the International Court of Justice about the legitimacy of the Palestinians’ armed struggle
in their quest for liberation, it’s recognised that international law permits armed resistance for
liberation. Yet, empirical evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict suggests that violence has been
ineffective in resolving the dispute and establishing lasting peace.
The presence of Zionists, now deeply rooted across several generations without a ‘metropole’ to return
to, underscores the need for a resolution that accommodates the coexistence of both communities. The
ongoing cycle of violence only serves to distance the prospect of peace, emphasising the importance of
seeking non-violent pathways to reconciliation.
Palestinian intellectual Sari Nusseibeh’s call to reconsider the pursuit of a separate Palestinian state
through further division and conflict brings to light the necessity of envisioning peace beyond the
framework of liberation.
3. Ruling class normal:
PAKISTAN is on fire, and not in a good way. Interrelated demographic, ecological and
economic crises are escalating. The incoming government owes its ‘success’ to the
establishment and is considered illegitimate by large segments of the population,
especially young people and the ethnic peripheries.

The PML-N and PPP will claim otherwise, but the widespread perception that the ‘new’ dispensation is
effectively PDM 2.0 speaks for itself. The ‘new’ ruling coalition only symbolises the depth of our political
crisis.
Given our own house is on fire, it is unsurprising that we have largely ignored the heroic political act by a
US Air Force officer, Aaron Bushnell, who set himself ablaze in front of the Israeli embassy in
Washington, D.C. to protest the genocide in Palestine.

Bushnell’s last words before his act of self-immolation were: “This is what our ruling class has decided is
normal.” Indeed, gruesome state-sponsored violence against oppressed peoples is routine in our world,
from Palestine to Balochistan, Kurdistan to Senegal, and Burma to Yemen. The corporate media
obliterates the histories of such peoples; state terror is called ‘self-defence’ while everything is
legitimated if it happens in the name of ‘national security’.

All bourgeois parties compete for the establishment’s favour.

It is not just acute cases of systemic oppression that get muted. In Pakistan, even a hopelessly rigged
election can metamorphose into a ‘national security threat’.

After Feb 8, the caretaker government (read: establishment) has imposed a blanket ban on the social
media site X. The post-poll rigging carried out to bring PDM 2.0 into existence was being exposed with
so much irrefutable evidence that our holy guardians decided it was time to do away with the niceties
entirely.

This has been followed by dire warnings to journalists who transgress the boundaries of what is
considered acceptable reporting, culminating in the arrest of Asad Toor by the FIA. In a nutshell, this is
what, to paraphrase Bushnell’s immortal words, Pakistan’s militarised ruling class has decided is
normal.

The PPP and PML-N continue to call themselves principled defenders of democratic principles but have
remained mum about all of this. We should not be surprised. Long before Imran Khan and the PTI came
to power in 2018, it was a PML-N government with Nawaz Sharif in the prime minister’s office that
introduced a parliamentary bill which made the notorious Peca into law. That was in 2015.

The very term ‘ruling class’ demands a reckoning with the fact that our predicament is beyond singular
regimes, that things will not just get better because one segment of the bourgeoisie has replaced another
in government. This is particularly true in our own context where virtually all bourgeois parties compete
with one another for the establishment’s favour — look no further than the PPP putting up Sarfaraz
Bugti and Jamal Raisani in Balochistan. Speaking of which, has anyone in government bothered to
provide relief to Gwadar, which is currently drowning due to torrential rain?

For those who still think that PDM 2.0 is an unqualified improvement upon Imran Khan and the PTI, it
is worth noting that Joe Biden — who so many celebrated when he defeated Donald Trump in the 2020
US presidential election — is, by current estimates, expected to lose to Trump in the election this year.
Simply put, the evidence does not prove that the supposedly more ‘liberal’ (read: centre-right) segments
of the ruling class resolve the inherent contradictions of contemporary capitalism and thereby reduce
the appeal of their far-right competitors.

Anyone who actually cares about the mass of people in whose name all ruling classes act would be
focusing on creating a popular political narrative that does not leave us to ‘choose’ between the centre
right and far right. One can and should condemn the way the PTI has politicised young people in the
digital age, but armchair criticism leads back only to the status quo of establishment-dominated musical
chairs. Refusal to acknowledge even the possibility that those who have experienced state repression
since April 2022 may coalesce around a new politics means, in effect, reinforcing the ruling class
normal.

Bushnell chose his sensational act of sacrifice because the Israeli war machine and its backers, including
Genocide Joe, continue to act unimpeded, even in the face of online dissent at a global scale. For now,
Trump is likely to be the major beneficiary of the disjunct between popular sentiment and the
established institutional order. Unless there is a wilful commitment to creating a substantive alternative
on the left of the political spectrum, however far down the line, those who seek to draw attention to the
fires engulfing humanity and nature will have only one option: to literally set themselves on fire.

01 march 2024 Dawn editorials editorials

1) Neglected region:
AFTER weeks of peaceful protests and sit-ins across Gilgit-Baltistan, two major demands
of the demonstrators were finally accepted. The Pakistan government reluctantly
restored the wheat subsidy and suspended the infamous Finance Act, 2023. The flour bag
price, increased twice in the past two years, was brought down to pre-2022 levels. Various
fees, levies, and taxes — though small in amount at least initially — introduced in the
Finance Act in some sectors, were also withheld. The GB chief minister’s office issued a
notification to withdraw the taxes to provide relief to the public.

Since the 1970s, GB has been enjoying a wheat subsidy and relief in direct, though not indirect, taxes
due to its disputed constitutional status, poverty, and underdevelopment. For over a decade, attempts by
successive governments to either impose taxes, cut the wheat subsidy, or acquire land have met with
public resistance.

Periodically, GB has been embroiled in days of protests and strikes but recent demonstrations were
unprecedented for two reasons. First, these protests were the longest in the region’s history. People
braved the harsh weather and continued their sit-ins for more than a month until their demands were
accepted. Second, the Awami Action Committee — an alliance of political, religious and traders’ unions
— which led the protests, had a 15-point demand list, including reduced wheat prices and the suspension
of the Finance Act. The AAC asked for land ownership rights for the people, a share for GB in the NFC
Award, royalties for GB for the Diamer-Basha dam, an end to prolonged power outages, etc. Although
the protests have ended for now, after the acceptance of the first two demands, leaders, and civil rights
activists, through their speeches, seem to have educated many people about the chronic issues of GB.

In GB’s context, it is difficult to accept the remaining demands unless there is a major policy shift on the
region on the part of the federal government. However, there is significant pressure on the newly elected
dispensation to take GB’s political and economic matters seriously. Lack of necessities such as health,
electricity, transport, and communication has added to the people’s hardships. No serious attempt has
ever been made by any government to improve the health infrastructure in the region. The shortage of
doctors, critical machinery, medical labs, and hospitals has resulted in several deaths. Stories
periodically surface on social media, if not mainstream media, about the suffering of patients due to the
absence of medical staff and facilities.

There is pressure on the new set-up to take GB’s matters seriously.

On top of that, long power outages often disrupt hospital functions. The absence of electricity for more
than 20 hours every day has made people’s lives miserable. The ongoing severe energy crisis is the result
of a lack of interest on the part of successive governments to tap the potential of power generation as
well as the lack of accountability, and flawed planning and management. One key example is the Satpara
dam in Skardu which has faced frequent technical problems and is now experiencing a critical water
shortage. An arrangement to divert water into the dam did not materialise. Hence, with the gradual
decline in snowfall, arguably due to climate change, there is not enough water to generate sufficient
electricity for the town. Work on two more small dam projects was halted due to a shortage of funds and
poor planning.

The commute of the population from GB to ‘down country’ — as the locals say — is getting riskier.
Frequent landslides disrupt traffic on the Karakoram Highway. The situation of the Skardu-Juglot road,
upgraded amid much fanfare, is even more precarious. Continuous landslides have damaged the road at
several points and have restricted the mobility of the people.

On the political front, the AAC had announced the resumption of protests this month for the remaining
demands. The opinion over GB’s disputed status seems to be divided, as political and religious leaders
call for a constitutional amendment for GB’s provincial status, while activists with more nationalist
inclinations demand self-rule in their local affairs as per UN resolutions or at least an Azad Kashmir-
type set-up. The latter, however, is hardly autonomous due to the centre’s interference.

The new government will have to take up challenging tasks for the betterment of GB. Pakistan, which is
already passing through grave economic and political crises, cannot afford another problem. The habit of
lingering on issues that require urgent attention needs to end. Time is of the essence in the resolution of
pending issues and urgent practical steps are needed. The only way for the government to upgrade the
region, satisfy the population and build trust among the public is to display its commitment and
seriousness this time.

4th march 2024 Dawn editorials 3 editorials

The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we
are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making.
Close to midg
THE Ukraine war has entered its third year, with no signs of a peaceful resolution. If
anything, the principal protagonists — Ukraine and its Nato backers on one side, Russia
on the other — appear to be digging in for the long haul. In a troubling indication of just
how dangerous this conflict remains to global stability, Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s raising the spectre of nuclear war last Thursday, during an address to his nation,
should be enough to get rational actors on the world stage to redouble their efforts to end
the Ukraine war. In an ominous message to his Western and Ukrainian foes, Mr Putin
reminded them that “we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory”, while
specifically mentioning his country’s nuclear-strike capabilities. He also reminded his
adversaries of the unenviable fate the armies of two of Russia’s historical foes —
Napoleon and Hitler — suffered while trying to conquer his country. The Russian ruler’s
combative rhetoric is a likely reaction to French President Macron’s recent comments at a
Nato meeting that Western troops could fight in Ukraine.

14 April 2024 Dawn editorials

1. Will Iran react to Israel
The US has remained a staunch ally, offering unconditional support to Israel`s `right to selfdefence` (a
term that normally applies in the context of external aggression) against forces in areas under its own
occupation, and has supplied unprecedented levels of arms, armament, fighter jets and bombs.
Even Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu`s place of residence, has seen mass demonstrations
in recent weeks, calling for his resignation and fresh elections. The number of demonstrators seems to
be rising daily and includes those who are angry at his handling of the hostage crisis.

When the current conflict erupted, Netanyahu was facing corruption charges and, despite attempts to
legislate his way out of trouble by tweaking the judicial system in the name of `judicial reforms`, it
looked like he was going to end up in court, even prison. Many saw the Hamas attack as a godsend for
him.
At this stage, Netanyahu and Israel`s strategy is clear. They want to continue their long-drawn-out
ethnic cleansing with unqualified Western material support, following Hamas`s shocking daylong attack
on Oct 7 last year, which killed about 1,200 Israelis, including some 400 security personnel.

Hamas also took about 240 Israelis back to Gaza as hostages in order to swap them for several thousand
Palestinian prisoners, many being held without charge on `administrative orders` in Israeli jails. A little
over half of those hostages have been released, but over 130 remain captive in Gaza.

For over six months, Israel may have been carrying out a relentless pogrom in Gaza, with the death toll
of children alone running at nearly 13,000 among the nearly 34,000 Palestinians killed so far, but it is
beginning to realise its military campaign now has an end date slapped on it by its Western allies.

The West`s waning support doesn`t owe itself to any sudden awakening of the conscience, but is
dictated by domestic politics, such as President Joe Biden`s desperate need for Muslim votes in states
such as Michigan, and the support of countless progressive Americans who are outraged by the Gaza
genocide and say they are unsure if they`ll vote for him in this November`s presidentialelection.In
contrast to its support over six months, recently the US has briefed journalists about `tough and candid
discussions` during a phone call between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, particularly
over Israel`s planned invasion of camps in Rafah, currently home to some 1.7 million displaced Gazans.

Over several months, Israel has tried to provoke Hezbollah, seen as an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, in the
north, but failed to draw it into a full-fledged confrontation. It has attacked not just south Lebanon and
Beirut and hit Hezbollah targets, including commanders, but has also bombed targets in Syria, which
forms part of the `axis of resistance` along with Iran, Hezbollah and Yemen.However, all these blatant
acts of provocation failed to draw Hezbollah and Syria into the Middle East conflict because the `axis`
powers possibly saw through Israel`s tactics and chose restraint, so the focus remained solely on Israel`s
brutality in Gaza, which was slowly but surely beginning to change Western attitudes.

The US has remained a staunch ally, offering unconditional support to Israel`s `right to selfdefence` (a
term that normally applies in the context of external aggression) against forces in areas under its own
occupation, and has supplied unprecedented levels of arms, armament, fighter jets and bombs.

But adding to domestic political compulsions has been the recent killing of around half a dozen Western
aid workers in a targeted strike on three vehicles belonging to the global relief organisation World
Central Kitchen, which resulted in international anger and opprobrium;even Western governments
sounded concerned and expressed unease at Israel`s continuing military campaign. I have tried hard to
ascertain the time of the WCK strike that killed seven Western aid workers on April 1 so as so ascertain
whether the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on the same day was a diversionary
tactic. In any case, the two attacks served two differentpurposes.

The one major consequence of the WCK killings was that the relief organisation suspended its
operations in Gaza. That fitted perfectly with Israel`s policy of depopulating the Strip through mass
killings and widespread destruction of its infrastructure, including homes, schools, hospitals, libraries
and universities, and by preventing food aid from reaching the Palestinians. The thousands of
Palestinians who were being served hot meals by WCK must be going hungry again.

The outrageous Israeli air attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was an act of extreme
provocation designed to force Iran and its influential Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps into
retaliating. Any retaliation by Iran, which the West sees as the bane of its existence, would pull not only
Israel but likely the US and other Western military powers into at least an aerial campaign against it.

This would serve Israel`s cause no end, as on the one hand, it can continue its Gaza genocide and the
land grab in the West Bank through more and more settlements, displacing thousands of additional
Palestinians, and on the other, the West`s attention will be diverted to, and remain focused on, its
favourite hate figures, ie, the Iranian clergy, and not on Israel`s mass murder.

As these lines are being written, the US has stated it will unequivocally support Israel in case of Iranian
aggression, while calling on Tehran to desist. It has to be seen whether Tehran decision-makers can take
a step back and think through the regional consequences before deciding on their course of action. Or
will the slight of the consulate attack and the killing of a senior IRGC commander force their hand? Any
violent reaction would only be a bailout for an under-pressure Israel.
2. World of 2035:
WHAT will the world look like about a decade from now? Given that geopolitics, geo-
economics, and technologies are evolving rapidly, the future is uncertain. However, there
are trends that give us a clue regarding the direction of global geopolitics. Today, we are
transitioning from a world order to disorder: major power rivalries are intensifying,
global military expenditure is rising steeply, unilateralism is ascendant while
multilateralism is in decline, and xenophobia is embedding itself in almost every country.

Four theatres of global contestation are contributing to the global disarray: Indo-Pacific (US-China
competition), Europe (Russia-Ukraine war), Middle East (Palestine conflict, Israel-Iran tensions), and
the Indian Ocean, where major powers including the US, UK, France, Australia, China and India want to
enhance their presence. American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan had rightly predicted in the 19th
century that the future of the 21st century would depend on whoever dominated the Indian Ocean.

Shifting alliances are being formed, essentially along three broad categories: the US, Europe and
Australia have an informal broad alignment against Russia, China, and Iran. For some countries, such as
India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and other middle powers, the preferred option is to exercise
strategic autonomy. Across these two broad categories, multi-alignments are emerging to pursue
common interests, such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which has expanded to
include other countries, including Iran and Saudi Arabia; QUAD, a platform created by the US,
Australia, India and Japan to contain China; and I2U2, which has brought together India, Israel, the US,
and UAE for economic cooperation, but has been halted, for now, by the Gaza war. For its part, China is
engaged with over 100 countries in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and six economic corridors,
including CPEC.

These shifting alliances will be affected by six cross-cutting trends: (i) emerging technologies, such as AI
platforms, multi-role drones, big data, and semiconductors, which are currently at the centre of the US-
China tech war; (ii) climate change, which can spell havoc for countries with low fiscal space through
extreme weather and food insecurity; (iii) de-dollarisation, an option many countries have begun to
explore; (iv) rare earth elements, which are required for advancing technologies — such as smartphones,
digital cameras, semiconductors, etc — and that are evoking stiff competition between China and the US,
Europe, and Japan; (v) non-traditional security threats, including energy politics, cyberwarfare,
disinformation campaigns and lawfare; and (vi) resurgent terrorism as concerted international response
wanes.

The focus of global attention will remain on Asia.

Global contestations, shifting alliances, and the six trends that will shape the world in the coming decade
will all play out in the high-risk areas of potential global conflict, including the South China Sea,
Ukraine, Middle East, Afghanistan, and Kashmir. The probable nature of conflict will be hybrid, with
countries using every tool of national power at their disposal to achieve their goals, including kinetic
options (military strikes, use of proxies), economic instruments (sanctions, lucrative aid packages,
coercion through the international monetary system) and information tools (propaganda, media,
entertainment industry).

Consequently, power potential will also change. The US is a waning power, but the instruments of its
national power are largely intact and can sustain it through the next decade as a leading superpower. It
is also taking steps to recover ground lost to China in high-tech industry and the manufacturing sector.
China is a rising power, and is interested in continuing its peaceful rise to become fully industrialised,
for which it will resist involvement in major kinetic conflicts. Russia is seeking to revive its lost glory, but
its energies are likely to be consumed by the conflict in Europe. India is also a rising economic power,
though its geopolitical profile will be constrained by ideological politics, the North-South divide, restive
minorities, and agitated farmers.

The UN would remain sidelined in matters of peace and security, but stay relevant for sustainable
development and climate change. The OIC is not likely to dent the future in any major way. Asean will
continue as a success story of regional integration. Europe is a resilient continent but the focus of global
attention will remain on Asia in the coming decade.

The world of 2035 appears to be even more fragmented and polarised than it is today. Only countries
exhibiting economic resilience and societal harmony will stand a chance against the mighty winds of
change.