The Philippines and China: An

Alliance in the Making?

September 18, 2016
The Philippine president is courting his Asian
neighbors.
BY CALLUM WOOD
Rodrigo Duterte. Some see him as the “Donald
Trump of Southeast Asia.” Others dismiss him
as a man of bark and no bite. Some consider
him to be a necessary strongman, while others
call him a violator of human rights.
Duterte’s ascendancy to the presidency of the
Philippines has many nations on edge; few more
so than America. The United States is
understandably anxious because Duterte is
rewriting the Philippine-U.S. playbook.
Sticks and Stones
Duterte’s expletive-laden speeches are a key
aspect of his brash persona. During a speech
before the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations summit in Laos, Duterte called U.S.
President Barack Obama the “son of a whore.”
He once used the same expression to describe
the pope. Andrew Browne, contributor for the
Wall Street Journal wrote, “Only the timing came
as a surprise. It might seem foolhardy to offend
your No. 1 protector and arms supplier when, as
an archipelagic nation with a barely credible
navy, Chinese armadas are pressing in.”
The firebrand speeches reveal the direction
Duterte is taking his country. The newly elected
president is looking to put U.S. relations on hold
while invigorating ties with China. He wants to
see a more independent Philippines—one that is
free from, as he sees it, its “vassal state” or
“lapdog” relationship with America.
The alarming fact is, Duterte’s insults are not
just hot air. The president has taken steps to
root out America’s military presence, and in
some cases replace it with China.
As one commentator for CNN wrote, “It’s not
just a runaway tongue that worries the United
States about the volatile new president of the
Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte. It’s what else he’s
thinking.”
Military Out
Signaling an even more worrying trend, Duterte
has called on the U.S. to withdraw from the
southern island of Mindanao. Mindanao is a
Muslim-majority region and the home of a
number of terrorist groups. Duterte considers
the U.S. special forces stationed in Mindanao to
be a prime target who must be removed for
their own safety and the stability of the island.
As Duterte said, “For as long as we stay with
America, we will never have peace in that land.”
Some, however, see Duterte’s demand as an
attempt to remove any witnesses before a
heavy-handed crackdown on the island. Earlier
this month, the Philippine president declared
that the military would now aid the police in
anticrime efforts . Duterte’s anticrime policies
have drawn significant international criticism as
a violation of human rights. A bombing in
Duterte’s home city of Davao in Mindanao
earlier this month means the island could be the
next target in the president’s crackdown.
Regardless of the reasoning, the removal of
U.S. troops is devastating for President
Obama’s region-wide attempt to draw closer to
Asia. The Philippines should be the linchpin in
Obama’s strategy—not the one reversing it.
Since World War II, the Philippines has been
home to a large U.S. military contingent. Clark
Air Base on Luzon Island was once the largest
U.S. base outside America. The ruins of
Corregidor Island are a testimony to American
Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s fight alongside
Filipinos against overwhelming Japanese forces.
The legacy lives on to some degree; Americans
still train alongside Philippine forces throughout
the nation.
The decision to kick out the U.S. troops
jeopardizes a strategic deal signed earlier this
year by then-President Benigno Aquino to allow
the U.S. to operate out of five bases. One of
these was Lumbia Air Base in Mindanao. If
American troops are removed from the base, it
will cast doubt on the longevity of the March
deal. If the U.S. presence at Lumbia Air Base
was so casually dismissed by Duterte, its
presence on the remaining four bases could be
too.
The purpose of the deal was to provide America
the opportunity to maintain a rotational
presence and allow for extended engagement
and long-term missions in the region. Scrapping
the deal limits America’s presence, shortening
Washington’s reach and weakening the U.S.
military arm extending into Asia.
As a recent Wall Street Journal article title read,
“Rodrigo Duterte Throws a Grenade in
Washington’s China Strategy.”
What South China Sea Dispute?
Hedging Chinese aggression in the South China
Sea is key to Mr. Obama’s interests in the
Philippines. However, Duterte is proving to be
an unreliable ally in the fight.
The Philippine president promised not to
mention the South China Sea at the ASEAN
summit—leaning more toward China’s stance
that any negotiations should be conducted
without Washington present.
Duterte has also promised to halt all maritime
patrols with foreign nations in an effort to
deescalate tensions. This too is in Beijing’s
favor. China would prefer not to see cooperation
between the U.S. and its allies in the South
China Sea.
When it comes to confronting China, Duterte’s
language lacks the usual brash tone. While
comfortable calling President Obama the son of
a whore, the Philippine president was much
more pleasant to China: “I hope the Chinese
may find a place in their hearts for the Filipinos.
I hope you treat us [as] your brothers and not
enemies and take note of our plight.” Bear in
mind, he said this to China—the nation illegally
(per the recent ruling at The Hague) occupying
Philippine territory and denying Philippine
fishermen access to fishing waters.
This soft approach shows that Duterte is looking
to reset relations with China, even if it means
giving up the major political victory he inherited
from The Hague when he took office.
Arms From Asia
The latest and perhaps most troubling of
Duterte’s actions have been his military dealings
with Russia and China.
The president has hinted that the Philippines
will no longer be so reliant on America for
weaponry. According to the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, 75
percent of Philippine weapons have come from
America since the 1950s. But that looks set to
change: Duterte said that Russia and China
have agreed to a 25-year soft loan that will
allow the Philippines to purchase their weapons.
After decades of being on the outside, Russia
and China will now have a foothold in the
Philippines arms market.
Just as the new market is opening up, the
Philippines defense procurement budget leaped
to $526 million—a 25 percent increase over last
year. The country clearly has plans on buying
more, but not from America.
Announcing the decision, Duterte said he wants
to buy arms “where they are cheap and where
there are no strings attached and it is
transparent.” “I don’t need jets,” he continued,
“F-16s, that’s no use to us. We don’t intend to
fight any country.”
The sale of U.S. arms to allies in Southeast
Asia has been a cornerstone in maintaining
relations through the region—the use of military
bases, another. Washington has had near-
exclusive access to the Philippines market for
decades—the Philippine-U.S. defense treaty was
signed in 1951. That era is coming to a close.
The purchase of Chinese arms gives Beijing
more opportunity to get involved in the
Philippines. Training on Chinese operating
systems, joint exercises and military cooperation
are the next steps after sales are finalized. But
Beijing’s plans are undoubtedly more than just
military cooperation.
“The problem is what’s the quid pro quo?” asked
Eduardo Tadem, a lecturer of Asian Studies at
the University of the Philippines. “What will the
Chinese especially get in exchange ?”
Russia and China must be overjoyed at the
prospect of taking Philippine business from the
U.S. Both nations have worked feverishly to
replace America as the go-to world power:
Russia in the Middle East; China in Southeast
Asia. Now both have the chance to elbow out
America in the Philippines.
The Trumpet has written extensively on this shift
by America’s traditional Asian alliances away
from the U.S. American weakness is as much a
facilitator of this change as the rise of China.
Many consider Duterte to be irrational and
erratic, but could it be that he sees the writing
on the wall? China isn’t interested in appeasing
America, nor is Russia. Washington’s pivot to
Asia has lost all momentum with the Middle
East still sapping America’s strength. China’s
belligerence shows that there is a new top dog
in Asia—and it isn’t America.
An Alliance in the Making
The budding friendship between China and the
Philippines has been in the making for years.
The April 1968 Plain Truth (forerunner to the
Trumpet magazine) stated:
Despite its many national, religious and political
differences, Asia will ultimately be welded
together into a common power bloc. It will
ultimately send its military muscle into the
Middle East at the return of Jesus Christ. This
prophecy is recorded in Revelation 16:12 and
16.
Few in 1968, or even a year ago, would have
considered the Philippines to be a friend of
China. But that is the alliance we see forming
today.
The Philippines’ tiny military means that if
Duterte is determined to remove U.S. influence,
he must look elsewhere for security. If his
recent speeches and actions (and the words
written in the Bible itself) are to be taken at
face value, then the Philippines is destined for a
relationship with China!
As the Trumpet forecast in 2011, “ As America’s
influence in the Philippines and all of Asia
wanes, China’s twin forces of soft-power
diplomacy and hard-power buildup will fill the
void and steadily congeal the Asian nations into
a colossal global power.”
But that rising power bloc in Asia will be short-
lived. “Asia’s unification points to the approach
of the most hope-filled event in history!” That
hope-filled event is, of course, the return of
Jesus Christ. The Asian power bloc plays a
pivotal role on the world scene, and it comes
about right at the end of the age of man. Right
before Christ’s return!
Many in the world see the demise of the U.S.
and the ascendance of Russia and China, but so
few see the reason and the hope that is coming
quickly afterward. Request our free booklet
Russia and China in Prophecy . It will show you
where current events in Asia are leading, as
explained in your Bible.