Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

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Journal of Applied Geophysics

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jappgeo

A new approach for porosity and permeability prediction from well logs
using artificial neural network and curve fitting techniques: A case study
of Niger Delta, Nigeria
Job G. Urang ⁎, Ebong D. Ebong, Anthony E. Akpan, Emmanuel I. Akaerue
Applied Geophysics Programme, Physics Department, University of Calabar, PMB 1115, Calabar, Cross River State, Nigeria

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A new approach based on artificial neural network and standardized non-linear regression analysis is proposed
Received 27 February 2020 for the prediction of reservoir properties from limited well log data. Two separate multi-layer-perceptron neural
Received in revised form 28 October 2020 networks using the Bayesian framework were employed and mathematical models were developed from the
Accepted 29 October 2020
networks. These neural networks were used to predict reservoir properties from well log data. The porosity neu-
Available online 04 November 2020
ral network (NN) utilized density log (RHOB) as input and core porosity as target, while the permeability NN
Keywords:
employed RHOB and water saturation as input and core derived permeability as target. Mean square errors
ANN (MSEs) for training, validation and test for the porosity network were 1.20889e−6, 2.22574e−6, and
Curve fitting 1.37204e−6 respectively while 5.62849e−1, 3.13709e−1, and 4.83728e−1 were obtained for the permeability net-
Porosity work. These networks were later applied to four wells to predict porosity and permeability. Very good correlation
Permeability coefficients (R-values) between the NN predicted data and the target data were obtained in each of these wells.
Prediction For the porosity network R-values of 0.99987, 0.99099, 0.99474 and 0.83749 were obtained, whereas 0.97584,
Niger Delta-Nigeria 0.83594, 0.97002 and 0.83512 respectively were observed from the permeability network. For the model devel-
opment, standardized nonlinear regression curve fitting tool was utilized. The polynomial model that determines
the coefficients of the fitted model through the Gauss-Newton optimization method was used. Several criteria
such as robust fitting, normalization and scaling were employed to further reduce and randomize the errors so
that it follows a Gaussian distribution with zero mean and constant variance. Goodness of the fit was tested
with the observable statistical parameters. For the porosity model, the sum of squared error (SSE) of 2.2715
e−04, R-square of 0.9997, Adjusted R-square of 0.9997 and root mean square error (RSME) of 4.3562 e−04 was
observed while the permeability model, SSE of 7.8315e01, R-square of 0.9753, Adjusted R-square of 0.9752 and
RSME of 8.092 was observed. This approach provides a simple and cost effective way of estimating reservoir
properties.
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Porosity and permeability are important reservoir properties that
plays key role in hydrocarbon and groundwater exploration. These
properties are directly related to the amount of fluid that can be stored
in the pore volume and those that have the capacity to flow. Thus, accu-
rate evaluation of these properties can enhance production perfor-
mance of the reservoir (Aminian and Ameri, 2005). Additionally, these
properties are utilized during reservoir modelling and simulation in
the development of static and dynamic models and are often used as in-
puts during reserve estimation and design of hydrocarbon recovery pro-
cess (Madj and Hezarkhani, 2011). Conventionally, these reservoir
properties can be determined directly from core sample analysis
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: joburang@unical.edu.ng (J.G. Urang).
(Saemi et al., 2007). Even though this method has proven to give accu-
rate results, it is not totally reliable as information derived from such
methods are not continious. More so, only selected depths in wells are
cored in a particular field and only few wells are sampled, since the pro-
cess is time consuming and very expensive (Martley, 2000). Conse-
quently, the need for a method that can provide a continious and
wider range of information is inevitable. Data from wireline logs tend
to proffer solution to the problem of lack of continuity in core informa-
tion and are almost available for all wells in a field. This provides an in-
direct method of estimating reservoir properties. However, the pitfall in
this method is its dependence on empirical relationships that may not
represent the true reservoir conditions (Helle et al., 2001; Lim, 2005).
Other problems associated with the wireline logs include, missing
data during preservation period and missing information during log-
ging, due to factors such as excessive temperature, pressure and corro-
siveness of subsurface media, tool malfunctioning and operator errors

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jappgeo.2020.104207
0926-9851/© 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 1. Geologic map of Nigeria showing the Niger Delta Basin (Adapted from Ebong et al., 2017) (a) and sectional map of the Niger Delta depo-belts, structural limits and study location
(b) (Redrawn from Doust and Omatsola, 1990).

that limits logging capabilities, thereby creating gaps in sensor record- et al. (2001), motivated by the results of ANN modelling of permeability
ing (Ayoub and Mohamed, 2015; Lopes and Jorge, 2018). These gaps in offshore Eastern Canada, developed neural nets for converting well
can hinder the process of building representative stratigraphic models logs in the North Sea to porosity and permeability. The porosity and per-
and creating uncertainties regarding what to expect during the next meability were estimated using two separate back-propagation algo-
drilling program (Churikov and Grafeeva, 2018). Hence, the need to rithms. Verma et al. (2012) applied the ANN technique to estimate
seek alternative ways of addressing these problems is highly recom-
mended. Our study combines core information and well log data to gen-
erate suitable neural network models that can help to overcome these
problems, since the model can mimic the true subsurface conditions
down the hole.
Recently, artificial neural network (ANN) have been proven to be a
strong tool for predicting reservoir properties from well log data as it
can identify complex relationships among permeability, porosity, fluid
saturations, depositional environments, lithology and well log data
(Rezaee et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2013; Anifowose et al., 2017). Over
the years, tremendous success has been recorded in the application of
ANN to solve problems such as completion analysis, formation damage
prediction, field development and reservoir characterization in the oil
and gas industries (Madj and Hezarkhani, 2011; Mohaghegh et al.,
1996). Neural network presents an alternative and easier method of es-
timating these reservoir properties (Hamada and Elshafei, 2010). Helle Fig. 2. A schematic diagram of a multilayered perception network.

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J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 3. Neural network architecture for permeability prediction.

permeability and porosity of the formation using few well log data in Al-
berta Deep basin in Canada. Aminian and Ameri (2005) utilized the ANN
technique to predict the flow units and flow unit permeability of a het-
erogeneous reservoir from well log and limited core data. Wong et al.
(2002) used back-propagation network method to compare the predic-
tion of porosity from genetic and non genetic approach of reservoir
characterization in oil field NSW of Australia. These authors have uti-
lized several inputs (i.e., three and above) in arriving at suitable models
for their predictions. However, we are proposing a novel approach that
utilizes a maximum of two inputs for permeability and one for porosity
predictions that can provide reliable results in areas where data are lim-
ited. This study is aimed at developing a simple neural network and
mathematical models that can predict porosity and permeability.
2. Geology of the study area
in equal proportions. However, the upper portion is mostly sand with
only minor shale interbeds (Kogbe, 1976). At the base of the Delta is
the marine Akata Formation, dominated by thick shale sequences (po-
tential source rock), turbidite sand (potential reservoirs in deep
water), and minor amounts of clay and silt. Beginning in the Paleocene
and through Recent, the Akata Formation was formed during lowstands
when terrestrial organic matter and clays were transported to deep
water areas characterized by low energy conditions and oxygen defi-
ciency. The formation underlies the entire delta, and is usually
overpressured. The petroleum system recognized in the Niger Delta is
known as the Tertiary Niger Delta (Agbada-Akata) Petroleum System.
This is because nearly all the oil produced from the area comes from
the Agbada Formation and partly from the Akata Formation in deep off-
shore fields.

3. Working principle of ANN

The Niger Delta covers an area of 300,000km2 with average sedi-
ment thickness of over 10 km in the basin depo-centre (Kaplan et al.,
The ANN is a functional imitation of the natural biological neurons
1994). It has prograded south-westward from Eocene to present, lead-
which is its fundamental data processing element. Like the biological
ing to the development of depo-centres (Doust and Omatsola, 1990).
neurons in the brain, it is made up of simple but highly interconnected
It is among the most prolific and largest hydrocarbon basins in the
processors also called neurons. Fundamentally, a biological neuron take
world. The Niger Delta is subdivided into five onshore and shelf
sub-basins, termed depo-belts that range in age from Eocene to Plio-
Pleistocene (Fig. 1). The depo-belts include the Northern Delta (Late Eo-
Table 1
cene – Middle Miocene), Greater Ughelli (Oligocene – Early Miocene),
Summary statistics of the trained porosity network using neutron and density log as input
Central Swamp I & II (Middle – Late Miocene), Coastal Swamp I & II and core porosity as target.
(Late Miocene - Plioceene), and Offshore (Middle – Late Pliocene)
Sample division No of sample Percentage (%) of sample R-value MSE
(Steele et al., 2009). The present day Niger Delta is characterized by
three major lithostratigraphic units that portray three main cycles of de- Training 839 70 0.99818 1.51025e−9
positional sequence in the region (Kogbe, 1976; Koledoye et al., 2003). Validation 180 15 0.99609 6.93251e−9
Testing 180 15 0.99245 2.03184e−9
The uppermost unit is the Benin Formation -a continental Latet Eocene
to Recent deposits of alluvial and upper coastal plain sands that are up to
2000 m thick in some locations. The sands and sandstones are coarse to
fine, grannular in texture, partly unconsolidated and represent braided
Table 2
stream point bars and channel fills and/or crevasse splay deposit. The
Summary statistics of the trained porosity network using only density log as input and
shales are few, thin and may represent back swamp deposits. Underly- core porosity as target.
ing the Benin Formation is the Eocene to Recent Agbada Formation, the
Sample division No of sample Percentage (%) of sample R-value MSE
major reservoir rock in the Niger Delta. The formation consists of paralic
siliciclastic sequences and is over 3700 m thick. The clastics accumu- Training 839 70 0.99999 1.20889e−6
lated in delta-front, delta-topset, and fluvio-deltaic environments. In Validation 180 15 0.99906 2.22574e−6
Testing 180 15 0.99997 1.37204e−6
the lower Agbada Formation, shale and sandstone beds were deposited

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J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 4. Error histogram for the porosity network.

inputs from different sources, puts them together, performs a nonlinear between the target (i.e., desired output) and the output is computed
operation on the input data and brings out the result (Lim, 2005). and back propagated through the network by the adjustment of weights
Weighted links are the source of neurons connection and signals are and biases (Akpan et al., 2013). This process is repeated by means of it-
passed from one neuron to another by these connections. A number of erations until a minimum error is obtained. A single iteration according
input signals are received by each neuron through its connections and to Hagan et al. (1996) is given by Eq (1).
transmitted through outgoing neuron connections (i.e., axon in biolog-
ical neuron) as output. The strength of each neuron input is demon- Zk 1 Zk− k gk 1
strated by the weights and its adjustment recurrently, leads to the
where gk is the current gradient, Zk is a vector of current weights and
neural network learning process. Basically, there are two types of neural
biases and k is the learning rate. In other to adjust the connection
networks, the unsupervised and supervised. In the unsupervised net-
weights of a particular neuron i at a certain iteration p, Negnevitsky
work the training algorithm only requires the input that is classified
(2005) reported the process as shown in Eq. (2).
into groups and clusters to be fed into the network. The learning process
goes on without the true output being shown to the network wi p 1 wi p wi p 2
(Ramgulam, 2006). Aminian and Ameri (2005) recognized Kohonen
network as the most common unsupervised network that has a simple where wi(p) is the weight of the ith neuron at p iteration, and wi(p) is
architecture of one layer input and output. As with all unsupervised net- the weight correction factor that can be calculated using Eq. (3).
works, the Kohonen network is provided with the input data and learns
wi p xi p e p 3
without being shown the true output. The supervised networks recog-
nize patterns and make decisions based on the patterns of inputs and
outputs fed to it (e.g., back-propagation network). Providing the desired
result is an integral part of the learning/training process. During the
training process, the input data is exclusively divided into test, valida- Table 3
Summary statistics of the trained permeability network using density log and water satu-
tion and training sets. The development of the network is done using
ration as input and core derived permeability as target.
the training set, the validation set is used to measure generalization of
the network (Saemi et al., 2007), while the ability of the trained net- Sample division No of sample Percentage (%) of sample R-value MSE
work to predict events, is confirmed using the test set (Aminian and Training 839 70 0.99589 5.62849e−1
Ameri, 2005). In the oil and gas industry the supervised network is Validation 180 15 0.96306 3.13709e−1
mostly used due to its ability to solve complex problems (Mohaghegh, Testing 180 15 0.99164 4.83728e−1

2000; Ramgulam, 2006). Its advantage over the unsupervised network

lies in its capacity to predict more reliable and repeatable results from
new set of data.
Table 4
Summary statistics of the trained permeability network using only water saturation as in-
put and core derived permeability as target.
3.1. Backpropagation algorithm
Sample No of Percentage (%) of R-value MSE
division sample sample
Backpropagation refers to the way a multilayered network com-
putes its error gradient from performance function (Hagan et al., Training 839 70 0.60915 3393.6768
1996). As a supervised network, a pair of input and target presented Validation 180 15 0.49852 16,318.90239
Testing 180 15 0.53346 4010.7591
to it, is propagated through it and an output is generated. The error

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J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 5. Error histogram for the permeability network.

Table 5 wi p p p 4
i k
Training parameters of the selected porosity and permeability network.

Parameter Porosity network Permeability network where k(p) is the error gradient at neuron k in the output layer at
Time 10s 125 s
iteration p. Eq. (4) is called the delta rule. Backpropagation algorithm
Epoch (No. of iterations) 16 1000 are of different types; Quasi-Newton, Conjugate gradient, Levenberg-
Best validation performance 1.1354 e−06 3.0271e−04 Marquardt algorithms, Gradient descent with momentum, and Gradi-
Mu 1 e−10 0.01 ent descent (Hagan et al., 1996). The last two algorithms are usually
Gradient 1.4154e−05 0.19508
slow, while the first three are comparatively faster in solving prob-
lems. In this work, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used
Alternatively, the expression for Δwi(p) for the jth neuron in a hid- for both networks because it is reputed for generating results faster
den layer i according to Akpan et al. (2013) and Negnevitsky (2005) when used to train moderate-sized feed forward neural network
can be expressed as (Hagan et al., 1996).

Fig. 6. Neural network training state for the porosity network.

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J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 7. Performance plot for the porosity network.

4. Materials and methods
4.1. Materials
For this work, datasets from four wells (Wells 1, 2, 3 and 4) from
three different fields within the Niger Delta operated by Shell Petroleum
Development Company (SPDC) of Nigeria was used (Fig. 1b). A base
map that shows Field A with two wells, Field B and C with one well
each is provided. Fields A and B are located within the Coastal Swamp
Depo-belt while Field C is located within the Central Swamp Depo-
belt (Fig. 1b). A dataset consisting of core porosity ( ), derived core per-
meability (K), neutron log, density log (RHOB) log and water saturation

Fig. 8. Regression plot for the training data set of the porosity network.

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J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 9. Neural network training state for the permeability network.

(Sw) from Well 1 belonging to Field A, was used in training the net-
works. The permeability is described as derived permeability (K) be-
cause it was calculated using core porosity and water saturation based
on Wyllie and Rose (1950) empirical relationship (Eq. (5)).
44
a ranged from negative to positive infinity (Fig. 3). At the output layer, the
K 5
Sbwirr
where the tortuosity factor (a) is 250, saturation exponent (b) is 2,
porosity and Swirr is irreducible water saturation.
4.2. Network design
Every neural network model have basically three types of layers; the
input, hidden and output layers. However, the network design can vary
based on input conditions, layer architecture (i.e., number of hidden
layers and number of neurons on each layer) and the desired output
(Zhang et al., 2018). In this work, both the permeability and porosity
network have similar design, except that each varies essentially with
input parameters and the final output. The network architecture
consists of a hidden layer with 10 neurons linking the input layer and
1 neuron linking the output layer for both networks (Fig. 2). Two trans-
fer functions (i.e., tan-sigmoid and linear) were used. The tan-sigmoid
transfer function was used at the input layer to constrain the output
values to fall within the range of −1 to +1 since the given input values
linear transfer function was used so that the network's output can take
on any value. In designing the porosity network both density (RHOB)
is and neutron log data were used as input in the first instance (Fig. 3),
while only density (RHOB) was used in the second scenario as input.
However, core porosity was used as target for both networks. Three
models were designed for the permeability network, the first having
neutron log and water saturation as input, the second utilized density
(RHOB) and water saturation as input (Fig. 3) and the third had only
water saturation as input with core derived permeability serving as
the target for the three networks. For each of the networks, a total of
1199 vectors of the input and target datasets were randomly divided
into 839 vectors representing 70% for training, 180 vectors representing
15% for testing and 180 vectors representing 15% for validation of the
networks. After training the networks, one network each was selected

Fig. 10. Performance plot for the permeability network.

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J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al.
Fig. 11. Regression plot for the permeability network.
Table 6
Correlation coefficient (R-value) for both porosity and permeability in all the wells.
Well no. R-value for porosity R-value for permeability
1 0.99987 0.97584
2 0.99099 0.83598
3 0.99474 0.97002
4 0.83749 0.83512
for the porosity and permeability prediction in the four wells. The selec-
tion was done based on the following criteria; (i) where there are lim-
ited data, the network can still be used to predict the reservoir
properties and (ii) if the chosen model has a very strong correlation
with the desired output. Based on these conditions, the trained network
with water saturation and density as input and core derived permeabil-
ity as target was selected for the permeability model. The porosity
model has only density as input and core porosity as the target. In
order to ascertain the efficacy of the ANN models, the ANN porosity
values were compared with empirically calculated porosity values
from density log and their differences with regards to the core porosity
were plotted.
4.3. Model generation by curve tting
The procedure described above in 4.1 was to develop a neural net-
work model that can be used in predicting permeability and porosity
that is similar to core derived porosity and permeability within the
Niger Delta with limited data. In other to generalise these models, math-
ematical models were generated from the robust neural network
models that can be used to calculate these reservoir properties else-
where. To achieve this, the curve fitting analysis technique that is
widely applied in computational sciences and engineering to solve
such problems (Liu and Wang, 2008) was utilized. It is a regression anal-
ysis tool used to identify relationship between variables whose para-
metric form is known but parametric values are to be determined (Liu
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Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207
and Wang, 2008). The general problem with this technique is that of
finding a member of the family of curves or surfaces that can “best” fit
a given number of data points. This criterion finds application in orthog-
onal distance regression, where the sum of squares of the orthogonal
distances from the data points to the surface is minimized (Atieg and
Watson, 2003). It is practically a classical optimization problem that
can be solved using optimization techniques such as decent methods
and Gauss-Newton methods. For this kind of fitting problem, the idea
is to minimize the sum of squares of the orthogonal distances from
the data points to the surface using the Gauss–Newton iteration tech-
niques that forces orthogonality to hold at every iteration point (Atieg
and Watson, 2003). In the field of Meteorology and Pattern recognition,
the least squares orthogonal distance technique is preferred in solving
fitting problems because it is iterative and fast in bringing out the rela-
tionship between shape parameters and location parameters especially
when the data points are many (Liu and Wang, 2008). Given a family of
parametric curves or surfaces represented by a function F(L; tj) ⊂ Rs, for
a set of points {Xj}nj=1 ⊂ Rs to be approximated by F(L; t), where t = (t1,
…,tm) ∈ Rm is the location parameter and L = (L1, …, Lr) is the shape pa-
rameter, the standard nonlinear least square representation of this
problem is given by Eq. (6).
Min n
L, t1 tm
∑j 1 ‖ F L; tj −Xj ‖2 6
where, tj is associated with the data points Xj. The traditional way of
solving Eq. (6) involves two basic steps. The first step is parameteriza-
tion that involves assigning the location parameter tj to each data point
Xj. The second step involves solving a linear least squares problem to de-
termine the shape and location parameters (i.e., coefficients) if the
shape parameters occur in linear form. Where the problems are non-
linear, there can be linearized (Liu and Wang, 2008). By executing these
two steps iteratively through computer algorithms, improved location
and shape parameters are obtained easily (Liu and Wang, 2008). This
is analogous to solving a system of first-order partial derivative of F
(L; t) generated from Eq. (6) to determine the coefficient of the polyno-
mial iteratively using the Gauss-Newton method which immediately
J.G. Urang, E.D. Ebong, A.E. Akpan et al. Journal of Applied Geophysics 183 (2020) 104207

Fig. 12. Comparative analysis of fractional porosity derived from cores, ANN and empirical calculation for Well 1 (a), Well 2 (b), Well 3 (c) and Well 4 (d).

Fig. 13. Fraction porosity estimation error derived from the difference between core porosity and ANN predicted porosity and the difference between core porosity and empirically
calculated porosity from density log for Well 1 (a), Well 2 (b), Well 3 (c) and Well 4 (d).